2024-25 NBA Season Discussion

[parsnips33]

Thinking Basketball Top 25 peaks of the 21st century #2 was posted, only two guys

25: Jason Kidd
24. Jayson Tatum

The remaining guys (presumably): Manu, Draymond, Shaq, Duncan, KG, McGrady, Nash, Dirk, Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Howard, Chris Paul, Durant, Curry, Harden, Kawhi, Davis, Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, Luka, SGA

Most of the discussion time spent on Kidd. I liked that they emphasized his scoring was decent. Don't really agree with 'pocket-Dray' as a defensive description.

I'm still hurt by the no Walli/Gobert discussion in the HM post.

Where'd this get posted? Is it a youtube thing?

[eminence]

Thinking Basketball Top 25 peaks of the 21st century #2 was posted, only two guys

25: Jason Kidd
24. Jayson Tatum

The remaining guys (presumably): Manu, Draymond, Shaq, Duncan, KG, McGrady, Nash, Dirk, Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Howard, Chris Paul, Durant, Curry, Harden, Kawhi, Davis, Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, Luka, SGA

Most of the discussion time spent on Kidd. I liked that they emphasized his scoring was decent. Don't really agree with 'pocket-Dray' as a defensive description.

I'm still hurt by the no Walli/Gobert discussion in the HM post.

Where'd this get posted? Is it a youtube thing?

I listened to the podcast on Apple.

[Texas Chuck]

Most of the discussion time spent on Kidd. I liked that they emphasized his scoring was decent. Don't really agree with 'pocket-Dray' as a defensive description.

I'm pretty stunned to see him even include Kidd if I'm honest. I have Draymond as a 1 of 1, so I agree that's an odd depiction of Kidd's defense. Without having listened to his reasoning, I'd assume its Kidd's ability to have way more impact than a man of his size is supposed to, plus like Draymond, Kidd was a defensive genius.

But Kidd imo is one of the most underrated players of all time. I know tsherkin disagrees(or did years ago when we discussed him) but everywhere Kidd went, his teams just improved immensely and the teams he left fell off of cliffs. And except for being drafted and leaving for the Knicks for his final season, every time he changed teams it was via trade with win now pieces going out. So its not like teams traded bad salary and picks for him.

His game isn't what we think a modern PG should be so we overlook or attempt to explain away that immense impact on winning. Oh the East sucked. Oh the Suns had these other good players(that they weren't winning with before). It was all Dirk, whatever.

Guy was a winner and maybe the smartest overall player at both ends(and transition) we've ever seen. He wasn't as physically gifted as most so he's not a GOAT impact player, but in terms of just knowing how to play? Nobody who compares at both ends to Jason Kidd.

[parsnips33]

Ended up listening to the pod (couldn't resist the Draymond mention lol)

Seemed to me like the comparison to Draymond was more offensive - pushing pace, super aggressive taking passing angles. The discussion of what would he look like if he were the 3rd or 4th best offensive player on his team in his prime

[parsnips33]

It should be Warriors vs Rockets and Lakers vs Mavs on Christmas WTF

[70sFan]

Most of the discussion time spent on Kidd. I liked that they emphasized his scoring was decent. Don't really agree with 'pocket-Dray' as a defensive description.

I'm pretty stunned to see him even include Kidd if I'm honest. I have Draymond as a 1 of 1, so I agree that's an odd depiction of Kidd's defense. Without having listened to his reasoning, I'd assume its Kidd's ability to have way more impact than a man of his size is supposed to, plus like Draymond, Kidd was a defensive genius.

But Kidd imo is one of the most underrated players of all time. I know tsherkin disagrees(or did years ago when we discussed him) but everywhere Kidd went, his teams just improved immensely and the teams he left fell off of cliffs. And except for being drafted and leaving for the Knicks for his final season, every time he changed teams it was via trade with win now pieces going out. So its not like teams traded bad salary and picks for him.

His game isn't what we think a modern PG should be so we overlook or attempt to explain away that immense impact on winning. Oh the East sucked. Oh the Suns had these other good players(that they weren't winning with before). It was all Dirk, whatever.

Guy was a winner and maybe the smartest overall player at both ends(and transition) we've ever seen. He wasn't as physically gifted as most so he's not a GOAT impact player, but in terms of just knowing how to play? Nobody who compares at both ends to Jason Kidd.

Kidd was unconventional PG even in his era, I think such players are very often misunderstood and underrated. We've seen this about Draymond recently, but there are plenty of such examples throughout the league history.

Interestingly, such players were more valued in the older era - Wes Unseld was very highly regarded during his prime and he was another Green/Kidd type of player.

I really like the series by the way. I thought at first that Kidd over Westbrook is iffy, even though I also prefer Kidd - I just didn't want to be too biased - but Ben and Cody did a great job showcasing his case. I also agree with them that when it's close, we should talk about more interesting, misunderstood players

[Doctor MJ]

Thinking Basketball Top 25 peaks of the 21st century #2 was posted, only two guys

25: Jason Kidd
24. Jayson Tatum

The remaining guys (presumably): Manu, Draymond, Shaq, Duncan, KG, McGrady, Nash, Dirk, Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Howard, Chris Paul, Durant, Curry, Harden, Kawhi, Davis, Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, Luka, SGA

Most of the discussion time spent on Kidd. I liked that they emphasized his scoring was decent. Don't really agree with 'pocket-Dray' as a defensive description.

I'm still hurt by the no Walli/Gobert discussion in the HM post.

Yup, I'm listening. I quite enjoy the countdown approach in something like this as it can let you focus more on the positives for each guy. Making 24/25 on a list like this means you're an amazing player, and I'd rather hear about that than picked nits.

Regarding Kidd & Tatum, my first thought is really "Wow, have there been 23 guys better than them?" Of course I'm sure I'll end up disagreeing in places, but more than anything else, it speaks to the fact that a quarter century is a long time, and I feel old.

[parsnips33]

Feeling mildly embarrassed by how much I dislike Kuminga at this point but goodness gracious I'm so over the whole thing

[Verticality]

I hope we keep Mathurin. He was critical last year.

[falcolombardi]

Thinking Basketball Top 25 peaks of the 21st century #2 was posted, only two guys

25: Jason Kidd
24. Jayson Tatum

The remaining guys (presumably): Manu, Draymond, Shaq, Duncan, KG, McGrady, Nash, Dirk, Kobe, LeBron, Wade, Howard, Chris Paul, Durant, Curry, Harden, Kawhi, Davis, Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, Luka, SGA

Most of the discussion time spent on Kidd. I liked that they emphasized his scoring was decent. Don't really agree with 'pocket-Dray' as a defensive description.

I'm still hurt by the no Walli/Gobert discussion in the HM post.

Yup, I'm listening. I quite enjoy the countdown approach in something like this as it can let you focus more on the positives for each guy. Making 24/25 on a list like this means you're an amazing player, and I'd rather hear about that than picked nits.

Regarding Kidd & Tatum, my first thought is really "Wow, have there been 23 guys better than them?" Of course I'm sure I'll end up disagreeing in places, but more than anything else, it speaks to the fact that a quarter century is a long time, and I feel old.

League is roughly 75 years old but the first 10 are pre shot clock and pre full racial desegregation, and even then is only after 15 years (1960's) that guys like russel and those drafted after him start peaking

It would be very strange if the last 25 years didnt have more top 25 peaks than the first 25 and to a lesser extent than the mid 25

Put another way i would expect the latter third of nba history to have a fair deal more than 33% of the top peaks, probably near 45-50% based on the league growth in talent pool over time

[tsherkin]

Feeling mildly embarrassed by how much I dislike Kuminga at this point but goodness gracious I'm so over the whole thing

It's just drama, right? And we just want basketball. Kuminga, presumably, is doing what he's doing because he doesn't want to be in Golden State anymore, and they're dicking him around because they want control over their asset and don't want to be left with nothing. And he seems to just want to leave.

[eminence]

Draymond and Dwight up next in Ben and Codys pod.

[70sFan]

Draymond and Dwight up next in Ben and Codys pod.

I enjoyed the pod, Green vs Dwight is a cool discussion because they have similar overall value (monster defenders with underappreciated, but limited offensive game) with such a distinctive styles and approaches.

I still keep wondering who they'd have for the next 21 spots. It's hard to imagine that many players better than these 2 in the 21st century.

[parsnips33]

Draymond and Dwight up next in Ben and Codys pod.

Might throw on a tux for this one

[Verticality]

Feeling mildly embarrassed by how much I dislike Kuminga at this point but goodness gracious I'm so over the whole thing

It's just drama, right? And we just want basketball. Kuminga, presumably, is doing what he's doing because he doesn't want to be in Golden State anymore, and they're dicking him around because they want control over their asset and don't want to be left with nothing. And he seems to just want to leave.

A bit stunning none of these high lottery picks worked. They built their greatness on homegrown players but maybe that was just great luck

[Doctor MJ]

Feeling mildly embarrassed by how much I dislike Kuminga at this point but goodness gracious I'm so over the whole thing

It's just drama, right? And we just want basketball. Kuminga, presumably, is doing what he's doing because he doesn't want to be in Golden State anymore, and they're dicking him around because they want control over their asset and don't want to be left with nothing. And he seems to just want to leave.

A bit stunning none of these high lottery picks worked. They built their greatness on homegrown players but maybe that was just great luck

While it was luck before in a lot of ways, when I look at the failure of the Warriors to make good use of their 2020s lottery picks, the through line seems obnoxiously clear:

Choosing superficial physical talent over BBIQ for a coaching scheme that really depends on BBIQ.

I’ll be forever curious what each guy in the war room thought at the time, and I don’t want to let the employees off the hook, but I do wonder the effect that Lacob and son had on the process. I don’t think Lacob forced these picks, but he clearly fell in love with what their physical talent seemed to imply at some point, and such things aren’t typically acquired tastes. Entirely possible that his employees felt pressure to pick the guys that the boss was excited about.

Again, they don’t get to use that as an excuse, but the disconnect between the players they picked and the way Kerr likes to have the team play is pretty jarring, and so it kinda screams that the coach wasn’t the most listened to voice in the room.

Of course it’s possible that Kerr himself just had no idea that these guys would have major BBIQ issues in scheme, in which case he deserves significant blame too, but I think generally if a coach gets the franchise to draft “his kind of guys”, he’ll be enthusiastic to play them, which is certainly not what we’ve seen with Kuminga.


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[lessthanjake]

It's just drama, right? And we just want basketball. Kuminga, presumably, is doing what he's doing because he doesn't want to be in Golden State anymore, and they're dicking him around because they want control over their asset and don't want to be left with nothing. And he seems to just want to leave.

A bit stunning none of these high lottery picks worked. They built their greatness on homegrown players but maybe that was just great luck

While it was luck before in a lot of ways, when I look at the failure of the Warriors to make good use of their 2020s lottery picks, the through line seems obnoxiously clear:

Choosing superficial physical talent over BBIQ for a coaching scheme that really depends on BBIQ.

I’ll be forever curious what each guy in the war room thought at the time, and I don’t want to let the employees off the hook, but I do wonder the effect that Lacob and son had on the process. I don’t think Lacob forced these picks, but he clearly fell in love with what their physical talent seemed to imply at some point, and such things aren’t typically acquired tastes. Entirely possible that his employees felt pressure to pick the guys that the boss was excited about.

Again, they don’t get to use that as an excuse, but the disconnect between the players they picked and the way Kerr likes to have the team play is pretty jarring, and so it kinda screams that the coach wasn’t the most listened to voice in the room.

Of course it’s possible that Kerr himself just had no idea that these guys would have major BBIQ issues in scheme, in which case he deserves significant blame too, but I think generally if a coach gets the franchise to draft “his kind of guys”, he’ll be enthusiastic to play them, which is certainly not what we’ve seen with Kuminga.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This strikes me as right.

That said, I will note that I feel like there’s a lot more fog of war when it comes to a draft prospect’s basketball IQ than there is about their athleticism. Teams do meet with a player, and they can definitely try to get a sense of their basketball IQ from that meeting. But those meetings aren’t all that long. I suspect if the player is just obviously stupid or manifestly lacks any ability to concentrate, then that’d raise a red flag, but that’s not really going to whittle things down enough. I’m sure they also try to ask around with contacts they have working for a player’s college team. But you aren’t exactly liable to get unbiased information from people working for the player’s college team. So there’s not a lot of info there. For some players, of course, you can easily see their basketball IQ on the tape. For instance, I don’t think you needed any meeting to know that LeBron James was a prospect with a high basketball IQ. But for most players it seems a bit hard to know from the tape exactly how good their basketball IQ is, especially if they did not play in a scheme in college that required the same kinds of reads that the NBA team drafting them will require (which is usually the case).

So I can kind of see why a team running a scheme that wants basketball IQ would still end up going for athleticism. They may feel like basketball IQ is largely just a roll of the dice, and so they might as well draft athletic players and hope they have the basketball IQ for the scheme. If that’s the case, though, then perhaps they need to change something about their scouting or their workouts in order to at least try to better discern basketball IQ.

[Peregrine01]

Kuminga is a physical specimen when it comes to running fast and jumping high but what use is it if he doesn't use it? A big tell is rebounding - as a 3 or 4 hes been consistently at 9-10% rebound rate. That's basically dead last and on par with Wiggins (a familiar archetype) for front court players for the Dubs over the last 5 seasons. Theres latent physical ability and applied and Kuminga is definitively in the former.

[Doctor MJ]

A bit stunning none of these high lottery picks worked. They built their greatness on homegrown players but maybe that was just great luck

While it was luck before in a lot of ways, when I look at the failure of the Warriors to make good use of their 2020s lottery picks, the through line seems obnoxiously clear:

Choosing superficial physical talent over BBIQ for a coaching scheme that really depends on BBIQ.

I’ll be forever curious what each guy in the war room thought at the time, and I don’t want to let the employees off the hook, but I do wonder the effect that Lacob and son had on the process. I don’t think Lacob forced these picks, but he clearly fell in love with what their physical talent seemed to imply at some point, and such things aren’t typically acquired tastes. Entirely possible that his employees felt pressure to pick the guys that the boss was excited about.

Again, they don’t get to use that as an excuse, but the disconnect between the players they picked and the way Kerr likes to have the team play is pretty jarring, and so it kinda screams that the coach wasn’t the most listened to voice in the room.

Of course it’s possible that Kerr himself just had no idea that these guys would have major BBIQ issues in scheme, in which case he deserves significant blame too, but I think generally if a coach gets the franchise to draft “his kind of guys”, he’ll be enthusiastic to play them, which is certainly not what we’ve seen with Kuminga.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This strikes me as right.

That said, I will note that I feel like there’s a lot more fog of war when it comes to a draft prospect’s basketball IQ than there is about their athleticism. Teams do meet with a player, and they can definitely try to get a sense of their basketball IQ from that meeting. But those meetings aren’t all that long. I suspect if the player is just obviously stupid or manifestly lacks any ability to concentrate, then that’d raise a red flag, but that’s not really going to whittle things down enough. I’m sure they also try to ask around with contacts they have working for a player’s college team. But you aren’t exactly liable to get unbiased information from people working for the player’s college team. So there’s not a lot of info there. For some players, of course, you can easily see their basketball IQ on the tape. For instance, I don’t think you needed any meeting to know that LeBron James was a prospect with a high basketball IQ. But for most players it seems a bit hard to know from the tape exactly how good their basketball IQ is, especially if they did not play in a scheme in college that required the same kinds of reads that the NBA team drafting them will require (which is usually the case).

So I can kind of see why a team running a scheme that wants basketball IQ would still end up going for athleticism. They may feel like basketball IQ is largely just a roll of the dice, and so they might as well draft athletic players and hope they have the basketball IQ for the scheme. If that’s the case, though, then perhaps they need to change something about their scouting or their workouts in order to at least try to better discern basketball IQ.

This is an important point, and I'll put it a particular way:

You can't necessarily tell who the outlier BBIQ guys are going to be from traditional scouting, and so it might make sense for a team to not use their top draft picks for these guys if there are other guys who are more sure things.

Of course, the whole thing is that the Warriors top picks weren't sure things.

With the Wiseman pick in particular it's tempting to just blame the fact that Covid blew up the preparation for the 2021 draft...but to me for precisely that reason, teams looking to build around existing cores should have been more focused on non-freshmen.

Haliburton was a sophomore and was highly touted as a high BBIQ guy, so the Warriors really should have been looking to draft him over anyone without any proven BBIQ, but they didn't, and as a result, they basically blew their chance to actually bolster the team they had.

It's unfair to say this without noting that Wiseman was rated much higher by the mock drafts, and that it's dangerous for GMs to go against the grain, but I would also argue that if you're not thinking about fit when choosing among draft picks who there's no reason to think will ever be as good as your best player, then you're just doing it wrong.

[Doctor MJ]

Kuminga is a physical specimen when it comes to running fast and jumping high but what use is it if he doesn't use it? A big tell is rebounding - as a 3 or 4 hes been consistently at 9-10% rebound rate. That's basically dead last and on par with Wiggins (a familiar archetype) for front court players for the Dubs over the last 5 seasons. Theres latent physical ability and applied and Kuminga is definitively in the former.

And of course, that's part of BBIQ.

It's not the size of the bag, but you're ability to instantaneously know the wisest tool to pull out, that determines what your "effective bag" is.