'15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread

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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#421 » by kayess » Tue May 17, 2016 4:41 am

SideshowBob wrote:
kayess wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:Wonder how high they can push the offense against Toronto. Hawks were 2nd in DRTG at -5.0 and Cleveland rocked a 122.9 vs them.


All other things being equal, if the Cavs simply shot average from 3 vs. Toronto, what would their ORTG look like? I mean even something like a 110 would be a decent showing against a -5.0 defense


You mean Atlanta? Kind of tough to say because would they have shot that kind of volume if they weren't shooting so well? Or would they have switched to more Lebron post-up + motion towards the basket? FWIW, while they were obviously hot, I thought it was clear that their offense/lineups was designed to create threes like this (Lebron screen and roll till death w/spacers everywhere). All else held equal if they shot 36% on threes they would have lost the series (~95.1 PPG, so like 104 ORTG).

If they maintain +18.2 vs Toronto that's 123.4. Against Atlanta their offense was a +21.5. Against Toronto that'd be a ~127 ORTG.


Yup - which is why I said all other things being equal. They would've obviously adjusted, but at the same time, I think the lineups do lend themselves to taking that many 3s anyway.

That's a way steeper drop than I expected though. Holy cow. They were getting some really good looks, and Smith was making some ridiculous contested 3s, but I hope they keep even 90% of that up.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#422 » by E-Balla » Tue May 17, 2016 11:48 am

With the playoffs winding down I think I'll actually get into this thread (it's odd because usually I'm in the discussion early and I drop out late since I don't vote). My top 5 is a little odd but easy to explain:

1. Curry - He's killing everything and everyone. He missed a decent amount of games but unless my number 2 spot outplays him in another 3 games to win the series I don't think it's that easy to top the GOAT regular season even if he got hurt.

2. Westbrook - He's just insane. I've never seen a player play as hard as him and while he is boneheaded his passing is way improved, his defense can be very disruptive at times, and his scoring ability is top level.

3. Lebron James - The last of the obvious choices here. He's coasted through the playoffs and honestly most of the regular season but an amazing Finals performance can get him the top spot.

4. Kawhi Leonard - Originally would've got the third spot but Lebron's too much better than Kawhi when trying. His defense was the best in the league this year and he was a very good first/second option offensively too.

5. Draymond Green - Some love his impact but I can't get over the fact that he really needs a great scorer for his impact to be shown. There's a lot of talk about his scoring in the postseason when Steph was gone but Klay was playing absurdly well in that same stretch and they still outclassed Portland a ton. Game 5 showed the importance of Curry to the Warriors and while the numbers are interesting in what they tell us about Draymond's role and how hard it is to replicate I don't think I can separate his impact from Steph and Klay.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#423 » by Dr Spaceman » Tue May 17, 2016 12:27 pm

E-Balla wrote:
5. Draymond Green - Some love his impact but I can't get over the fact that he really needs a great scorer for his impact to be shown. There's a lot of talk about his scoring in the postseason when Steph was gone but Klay was playing absurdly well in that same stretch and they still outclassed Portland a ton. Game 5 showed the importance of Curry to the Warriors and while the numbers are interesting in what they tell us about Draymond's role and how hard it is to replicate I don't think I can separate his impact from Steph and Klay.


Just wanna say I think this is a really smart, well-reasoned take.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#424 » by E-Balla » Tue May 17, 2016 12:36 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
5. Draymond Green - Some love his impact but I can't get over the fact that he really needs a great scorer for his impact to be shown. There's a lot of talk about his scoring in the postseason when Steph was gone but Klay was playing absurdly well in that same stretch and they still outclassed Portland a ton. Game 5 showed the importance of Curry to the Warriors and while the numbers are interesting in what they tell us about Draymond's role and how hard it is to replicate I don't think I can separate his impact from Steph and Klay.


Just wanna say I think this is a really smart, well-reasoned take.

I mean what else would you expect from such a spectacular poster. :D

PS - Thanks Spaceman.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#425 » by GSP » Wed May 18, 2016 5:17 am

ElGee wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:WOWY splits...]
-

Hey Elgee i didnt want to derail the draft thread but u said u felt Kd was universally underrated right now. I was wondering if u can expound on that and do u mean by 2016 Kd? Do u see it like some Bird postseasons where his boxscore numbers werent great but he was having a huge offensive impact? And do u not agree Westbrook has the keys to the offense and is their best player now?
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#426 » by Nbafanatic » Wed May 18, 2016 9:24 pm

So far, I have:

1- Curry - One of the goat regular seasons and most likely greatest offensive season overall plus not many but very valuable playoff games so far, and he still got the lead.

2- Lebron - Lebron is closing in fast. Great playoffs so far, even considering the competition; The last stride of the regular season plus this playoffs are showing a different sample size on him finally being able to elevate the play, or, at least not getting in the way of his all star level players, that he is arguably the goat role player lifter has already been established. Let's see against some real competition in the finals.

3- Durant - Somewhat inconsistent as usual in the playoffs, but had an opus pivotal game 4 against the Spurs and very clearly outplayed Leonard last series.

4- Leonard - Still here because of the aggregate, but will probably lose some spots to Westbrook and Green, at least.

5- Westbrook - Still gambles like a madman, a lot of mistakes defensively, but the Thunder would not be here without his sheer intensity. He will have to tone down a bit more on the miscues for the Thunder to eliminate the Warriors, I think.

6- Draymond Green - The most versatile player in the league, and more and more I think he should have been the DPOY ahead of Leonard.

7- Kyrie Irving - The second best playoff performer so far behind his teammate.

8- Klay Thompson - Very solid regular season and great playoffs until here.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#427 » by SideshowBob » Wed May 18, 2016 11:29 pm

SideshowBob wrote:Final Four Playoff Performance
Spoiler:
(pre-Conference Finals)

Cleveland Cavaliers (8 G)

+12.46 SRS, +18.2 Offense, +4.2 Defense

Golden State Warriors (10 G)

+11.66 SRS, +9.3 Offense, -3.1 Defense

Oklahoma City Thunder (11 G)

+13.33 SRS, +12.2 Offense, -2.5 Defense

Toronto Raptors (14 G)

+1.70 SRS, +6.1 Offense, +3.7 Defense


Through 1 CF Game:

Cleveland Cavaliers (9 G)

+14.64 SRS, +18.4 Offense, +1.6 Defense

Golden State Warriors (11 G)

+10.43 SRS, +7.9 Offense, -3.5 Defense

Oklahoma City Thunder (12 G)

+13.83 SRS, +11.3 Offense, -3.6 Defense

Toronto Raptors (15 G)

+0.09 SRS, +4.7 Offense, +4.5 Defense

---------------------------

Cleveland is dominating 3 of 4 Offensive Four Factors. Their FT/FGA rate is 2nd lowest in the playoffs at .171 (after Memphis). Their 0-3 ft attempts are right in the middle (27.2%) so that means they're simply creating a lot of open layups (also why their TOV% is so low).

OKC is a wrecking crew on the glass. 30.0% ORB (meaning 70% DRB allowed) and 80.3% DRB (meaning 19.7% ORB allowed). Also I'm pretty sure they're playing the toughest PS schedule ever. Through 12 games now they've faced a weighed average SRS of +6.0, and with at least 3 more games to go vs. GSW, the lowest they will finish at is +6.87.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#428 » by Clyde Frazier » Fri May 20, 2016 1:11 am

[tweet]https://twitter.com/warriorsworld/status/733463017308848130[/tweet]
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#429 » by Texas Chuck » Fri May 20, 2016 2:05 pm

Tim Duncan on that list is curious considering how little he was a part of the Spurs during much of the playoffs.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#430 » by Clyde Frazier » Fri May 20, 2016 2:27 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:Tim Duncan on that list is curious considering how little he was a part of the Spurs during much of the playoffs.


I mean, i wouldn’t totally discount it, but certainly an example of why sample size matters.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#431 » by bondom34 » Fri May 20, 2016 2:33 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:
Texas Chuck wrote:Tim Duncan on that list is curious considering how little he was a part of the Spurs during much of the playoffs.


I mean, i wouldn’t totally discount it, but certainly an example of why sample size matters.

Just checked and he had some weird results from the OKC series that skew it a bit, he was a +28 when they blew out OKC (not too bizarre), but a +22 in game 6 when the Spurs were blown out.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#432 » by ElGee » Sat May 21, 2016 6:13 pm

GSP wrote:
ElGee wrote:
SideshowBob wrote:WOWY splits...]
-

Hey Elgee i didnt want to derail the draft thread but u said u felt Kd was universally underrated right now. I was wondering if u can expound on that and do u mean by 2016 Kd? Do u see it like some Bird postseasons where his boxscore numbers werent great but he was having a huge offensive impact? And do u not agree Westbrook has the keys to the offense and is their best player now?


Synergy: Spot up at 1.13 ppp, way above league average. Off-screen 0.97 (closer to LA). 3 pt% this year? 39%

Post up: 1.23 ppp. Best in the league by a MILE (min 100 attempts). Next closest is D West at 1.08. He's way above-average in the other isolation category they have ("isolation") at 0.99 ppp. And he's an effective scorer in the PnR now (0.93 pop, also way above LA). Oh, and he's lethal in transition, almost as good by the numbers as the human fast-break freight-train LeBron James (1.32 ppp on volume).

Best year of his career on the mid-range and long 2. Raw on/off +13. 5th in JE's single-year RAPM (4th on offense). (Multi-year tells a similar story). WOWY numbers good. Solid defensively. Incredibly portable with that skill set -- able to be used on-ball and off-ball in different capacities.

Weaknesses? He can create now but he's still not a gifted passer. Sometimes sloppy with passes and turnovers. Not elite defensively.

To your question, I'm not going to factor in a couple bad shooting games in the PS more than a very tiny grain of salt when compared to the above body of evidence. I also don't think RW is better than him. He's a totally different kind of player, and one that isn't as portable to me. RW is a destructive force against your defense. Amazing in transition. Amazing rebounder. I don't love how he dribbles so darn much sometime...He was second in the league this year in time of possession. (2.5x more than KD.)

I've never bought in to RW shooting less because OKC is really a two-headed monster, and they "fit" more so because of Durant's portability. I think the world has lost sight of how good they are because of the super-teams from GSW and SAS. Last 4 healthy SRS's for OKC: 6, 7, 9, 7. Every top team from 99-07 was between a 7-8 SRS.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#433 » by SideshowBob » Sat May 21, 2016 7:29 pm

ElGee wrote:


What are your thoughts on LBJ this postseason and how do you feel about a pre-87 Magic comparison for his offense?
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#434 » by SideshowBob » Mon May 23, 2016 2:08 am

Folks, thoughts on GS-OKC through almost 3 games (I think we can call this one now)?
But in his home dwelling...the hi-top faded warrior is revered. *Smack!* The sound of his palm blocking the basketball... the sound of thousands rising, roaring... the sound of "get that sugar honey iced tea outta here!"
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#435 » by kayess » Mon May 23, 2016 2:39 am

SideshowBob wrote:Folks, thoughts on GS-OKC through almost 3 games (I think we can call this one now)?


GS has been down 2-1 before, but never to a team like this, but I still wouldn't call it - don't wanna jinx it!

Still, from what we've seen so far, the only times OKC have been overrun was when Westbrook started chucking, or they lost their intensity on D, allowing the Warriors to just score in bunches really quickly. That's really difficult to maintain over an entire game, let alone an entire series against them, which is why the Warriors are so hard to beat.

That being said, Donovan's lineups, the energy OKC's played with (especially on D) have been really key. They've been able to weather the death lineup, so I don't think GSW can pull any lineup tricks anymore - they're gonna need Curry to be aggressive early probably, hope OKC overreacts, which opens things up for everyone else on the team, and they can get back to their game.

I honestly thought the way OKC lost game 2 meant they were done mentally - not the blowout, but the fact that they were up 1 leading up into the second half, when you would've expected the Warriors to come out playing desperate. That should've given them a boost, but they switched off too early and basically lost the game there, didn't fight as much in the second half.

Game 4's going to be real interesting. GSW knows that if they lose, OKC doesn't have to win on the road anymore to win the series. They're going to come out firing - and I think if OKC can weather THAT storm, and not come out flat in the 3rd, I think they'll win if the score is close (either way) going into the fourth.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#436 » by RSCD3_ » Mon May 23, 2016 2:50 am

If the warriors lose draymond for sure falls off my top 5 consideration and curry is 4th at best.

Huge upset losing to a team with 18 less wins cannot be taken lightly despite okc possibly underperforming in the regular season. Warriors looked like a gutless team tonight lets see if they can respond, first reaction after seeing the score is that the series is over and no matter what happens I cannot consider them a goat team, it's debateable whether they even improved that much since last year...
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#437 » by SideshowBob » Mon May 23, 2016 2:54 am

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/bpm_top_10_p.html

Best Playoffs Top 2 in BPM since 08 and probably best ever for top 4-5.
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#438 » by RSCD3_ » Mon May 23, 2016 2:59 am

Kind of related but thoughts on if Cleveland can deal with OKC better than the warriors?
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#439 » by colts18 » Mon May 23, 2016 3:12 am

SideshowBob wrote:http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/bpm_top_10_p.html

Best Playoffs Top 2 in BPM since 08 and probably best ever for top 4-5.

Its best ever for top 4, top 5, top 6, etc. all the way down to top 10. It has the 8th best top 2, 5th best top 3.
Here is the list of best top 5's:

Code: Select all

2016   10.45   R. Westbrook    L. James    K. Leonard    P. George    A. Bogut
1991   10.16   M. Jordan    C. Barkley    C. Drexler    M. Johnson    J. Stockton
1993   9.94   M. Jordan    H. Olajuwon    V. Divac    D. Coleman    C. Morris
2010   9.94   D. Wade    L. James    R. Westbrook    D. Nowitzki    J. Dudley
2009   9.60   L. James    T. Parker    K. Bryant    D. Howard    D. Wade
1990   9.36   M. Jordan    I. Thomas    V. Divac    M. Johnson    C. Barkley
2008   9.35   C. Paul    L. James    T. McGrady    D. Nowitzki    K. Bryant
1988   9.05   H. Olajuwon    M. Jordan    I. Thomas    D. Rivers    J. Stockton
1997   9.05   A. Hardaway    H. Olajuwon    M. Jordan    S. O'Neal    J. Stockton
1987   8.86   M. Johnson    H. Olajuwon    I. Thomas    C. Person    A. Carr
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Re: '15-16 RealGM Player of the Year Discussion Thread 

Post#440 » by SideshowBob » Mon May 23, 2016 3:12 am

RSCD3_ wrote:If the warriors lose draymond for sure falls off my top 5 consideration and curry is 4th at best.

Huge upset losing to a team with 18 less wins cannot be taken lightly despite okc possibly underperforming in the regular season. Warriors looked like a gutless team tonight lets see if they can respond, first reaction after seeing the score is that the series is over and no matter what happens I cannot consider them a goat team, it's debateable whether they even improved that much since last year...


If you want to go there you can point to their SRS being about the same and explain the difference in wins coming from Lebron-esque clutch performance in close games.

The argument for them is that their shortened rotation consists of crazy high performing lineups vs last year.
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