2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

[Colbinii]

btw, definitely thinking of Austin Reaves as a MIP candidate now.

What changed?

Thoughts on Reaves for Most Improved?

I'm impressed by him and will certainly consider him, but statistically it doesn't seem like it was that jaw-dropping of a leap. All things being equal, I'm more inclined to favor a guy who broke through to stardom.

[iggymcfrack]

Insane game for Tatum. I think that might be enough to put him ahead of Jimmy for 3rd right now although realistically it will all come down to the conference finals. Either one could pass Embiid for #2 if they have a good finish to the playoffs.

[Doctor MJ]

btw, definitely thinking of Austin Reaves as a MIP candidate now.

What changed?

Thoughts on Reaves for Most Improved?

I'm impressed by him and will certainly consider him, but statistically it doesn't seem like it was that jaw-dropping of a leap. All things being equal, I'm more inclined to favor a guy who broke through to stardom.

Just super impressed with him as I keep watching him in the playoffs.

Not saying he'll be my MIP, but I wasn't seriously considering him before, and now I think I have to at least do that.

[Doctor MJ]

So with Boston trouncing 76ers in the last game:

I think my top 5 POY ballot is probably set for:

Butler
Davis
Embiid
Jokic
Tatum

In some order. I think Embiid may well end up at the bottom of that list, but it will be hard for me to move him off that list unless one of the players still playing who isn't already on the list plays himself up big time.

The next round will obviously tell us a lot about Jokic vs Davis & Butler vs Tatum.

I'll tell you though, this loss really stings Embiid in the Top 100 project coming up for me.

I think I'm going to have to have both Butler & Tatum ahead of Embiid as Top 100 candidates, and watching Horford do a number on Embiid makes me think that I might see Horford's career as the greater accomplishment to date.

[OhayoKD]

I do think the lack of a reliable #2 scoring option was a big deal for the Warriors, of course. That’s the biggest problem with this team following the decline of Klay & Poole.

Thank you for mentioning this.

I'd really like to NOT be coming off as talking up Curry's performance in this series and talking as if the Lakers were lucky to win the series. The Lakers were freaking awesome, and I see them as a major contender for the chip.

But, in the regular season, together the Klay-Poole duo shoots 14.6 for 33.7 from the field, and 7.0 for 18.4 from 3.
In that game Klay-Poole shot 6 for 29 from the field, and 2 for 15 from 3.

Give the Warriors there missing 5 made 3's, and 3.6 other made 2's, that's like a 22 point swing, bigger than the winning margin.

The fundamental reality of how the Warriors have built around Curry is that he and they are literally banking that this not happening, so when it does, they're kinda screwed. As they say, live by the 3, die by the 3. For all involved it means a type of fragility in their potential for success, and a void where an achievement would have otherwise been each time it burns them...but it's also just a thing that happens sometimes for reasons that aren't really about Curry actually playing badly.

Do you have data for how many of those threes were contested? I certainly didn't get the impression the Lakers were just letting Klay shoot. We can debate just how much value Curry provided via his "gravity", but the Lakers approach was not, "we'll live with Klay beating us".

As for your larger point, Curry may not have performed sub-optimally in his role, but it is a smaller role than that of say, Magic who dictated the offense rather than merely play in its flow. The advantage of great passing is it can eliminate variables in a way "gravity" does not. Maybe JR overreacts to Curry's presence giving KD a dunk. Or...maybe he doesn't.

[GSP]

So with Boston trouncing 76ers in the last game:

I think my top 5 POY ballot is probably set for:

Butler
Davis
Embiid
Jokic
Tatum

In some order. I think Embiid may well end up at the bottom of that list, but it will be hard for me to move him off that list unless one of the players still playing who isn't already on the list plays himself up big time.

The next round will obviously tell us a lot about Jokic vs Davis & Butler vs Tatum.

I'll tell you though, this loss really stings Embiid in the Top 100 project coming up for me.

I think I'm going to have to have both Butler & Tatum ahead of Embiid as Top 100 candidates, and watching Horford do a number on Embiid makes me think that I might see Horford's career as the greater accomplishment to date.

Not the 1st time Al has done this to him. I mean thats the main reason Philly traded for him so Al would leave him alone

in 2018 Al prolly outplayed him in that series and straight up locked him down bad when he was on him. We were HUGE underdogs that series barely no one was picking us to win and we did it in 5 which NO ONE saw coming

[WestGOAT]

So with Boston trouncing 76ers in the last game:

I think my top 5 POY ballot is probably set for:

Butler
Davis
Embiid
Jokic
Tatum

In some order. I think Embiid may well end up at the bottom of that list, but it will be hard for me to move him off that list unless one of the players still playing who isn't already on the list plays himself up big time.

The next round will obviously tell us a lot about Jokic vs Davis & Butler vs Tatum.

I'll tell you though, this loss really stings Embiid in the Top 100 project coming up for me.

I think I'm going to have to have both Butler & Tatum ahead of Embiid as Top 100 candidates, and watching Horford do a number on Embiid makes me think that I might see Horford's career as the greater accomplishment to date.

Not the 1st time Al has done this to him. I mean thats the main reason Philly traded for him so Al would leave him alone

in 2018 Al prolly outplayed him in that series and straight up locked him down bad when he was on him. We were HUGE underdogs that series barely no one was picking us to win and we did it in 5 which NO ONE saw coming

Not to mention old man Marc Gasol also locking Embiid up regularly. Sure Embiid does gets doubled often in the playoffs, but it's truly shocking that he doesn't see those coming and keeps turning the ball over. How can he not handle this defensive coverage after all these years? Just as bad as Ben Simmons not improving his shooting

[eminence]

Current (semi realistic) ranges for guys on my potential ballot.

Jokic 1-3
Tatum 1-4
Butler 1-off
AD 1-off
LeBron 1-off
Embiid 3-off
Curry 4-off

Feels a bit odd to not be considering Giannis, but despite the #1 seed I wasn't particularly impressed by his RS (had him in the #5 range, and then obviously a big dud in the playoffs - injury influenced). Probably next in line for consideration. Shoutout to the RS guard trio of Luka/SGA/Dame.

[GSP]

Current (semi realistic) ranges for guys on my potential ballot.

Jokic 1-3
Tatum 1-4
Butler 1-off
AD 1-off
LeBron 1-off
Embiid 3-off
Curry 4-off

Feels a bit odd to not be considering Giannis, but despite the #1 seed I wasn't particularly impressed by his RS (had him in the #5 range, and then obviously a big dud in the playoffs - injury influenced). Probably next in line for consideration. Shoutout to the RS guard trio of Luka/SGA/Dame.

What about Brunson?

[eminence]

Current (semi realistic) ranges for guys on my potential ballot.

Jokic 1-3
Tatum 1-4
Butler 1-off
AD 1-off
LeBron 1-off
Embiid 3-off
Curry 4-off

Feels a bit odd to not be considering Giannis, but despite the #1 seed I wasn't particularly impressed by his RS (had him in the #5 range, and then obviously a big dud in the playoffs - injury influenced). Probably next in line for consideration. Shoutout to the RS guard trio of Luka/SGA/Dame.

What about Brunson?

Don't really see the case here.RS clearly below all of the above. Good solid playoff run, but not particularly more impressive than Steph/LeBron unless you're curving for expectations. Notably less so than Jokic/Butler/AD, and I'd say slightly less than Tatum. Better than Embiid, but that's a ton of RS ground to make up, and I don't think a 2nd round loss gets it done.

[Colbinii]

Current (semi realistic) ranges for guys on my potential ballot.

Jokic 1-3
Tatum 1-4
Butler 1-off
AD 1-off
LeBron 1-off
Embiid 3-off
Curry 4-off

Feels a bit odd to not be considering Giannis, but despite the #1 seed I wasn't particularly impressed by his RS (had him in the #5 range, and then obviously a big dud in the playoffs - injury influenced). Probably next in line for consideration. Shoutout to the RS guard trio of Luka/SGA/Dame.

What about Brunson?

Whats his argument? Outside of Top 15 in Regular Season. Top 5-7 in Playoffs.

[Doctor MJ]

I do think the lack of a reliable #2 scoring option was a big deal for the Warriors, of course. That’s the biggest problem with this team following the decline of Klay & Poole.

Thank you for mentioning this.

I'd really like to NOT be coming off as talking up Curry's performance in this series and talking as if the Lakers were lucky to win the series. The Lakers were freaking awesome, and I see them as a major contender for the chip.

But, in the regular season, together the Klay-Poole duo shoots 14.6 for 33.7 from the field, and 7.0 for 18.4 from 3.
In that game Klay-Poole shot 6 for 29 from the field, and 2 for 15 from 3.

Give the Warriors there missing 5 made 3's, and 3.6 other made 2's, that's like a 22 point swing, bigger than the winning margin.

The fundamental reality of how the Warriors have built around Curry is that he and they are literally banking that this not happening, so when it does, they're kinda screwed. As they say, live by the 3, die by the 3. For all involved it means a type of fragility in their potential for success, and a void where an achievement would have otherwise been each time it burns them...but it's also just a thing that happens sometimes for reasons that aren't really about Curry actually playing badly.

Do you have data for how many of those threes were contested? I certainly didn't get the impression the Lakers were just letting Klay shoot. We can debate just how much value Curry provided via his "gravity", but the Lakers approach was not, "we'll live with Klay beating us".

As for your larger point, Curry may not have performed sub-optimally in his role, but it is a smaller role than that of say, Magic who dictated the offense rather than merely play in its flow. The advantage of great passing is it can eliminate variables in a way "gravity" does not. Maybe JR overreacts to Curry's presence giving KD a dunk. Or...maybe he doesn't.

I don't have contested shot data handy. Feel free to post. I will say that I'm not really sure how it affects my point though. The Warriors were not going to get that far with 2 of their 3 shooters shooting very badly, and the Warriors certainly knew this ahead of time. The bet is that this mostly won't happen, but when it does, you're screwed.

Re: smaller role than Magic who dictated the offense, eliminates variables. Hmm, so I'll say:

- On-ball superstar roles certainly eliminate some variables and have a tendency to raise the floor.

- However the variance of 3-point shooting is a universal issue. Magic in his day wasn't trying to get guys to take those shots, and so there was less variance in the performance of the Laker offense on this front. Because they were playing against opponents who were universally playing bad-strategy basketball - aka, not shooting 3's - this worked. In the modern game, you have to have teammates hitting 3's or you're dead, and so there's really no escape from the variance.

- And yes, Curry's gravity absolutely gets guys dunks...and this was where AD's interior presence was a big deal in this series. How many times did guys get the ball on the interior and instead of going up for a shot they just brought it right back to the perimeter? That's because of AD.

- Similarly, having a guy like AD behind you allows you to play more aggressive man defense on all the perimeter guys.

- Final thing I'll say: I think the question of whether a Curry-type offensive player is better than a Magic-type offensive player is still something we're sorting out. The logic of the latter being less variance-prone makes sense, but in the end, it's not about how things look at the nadir of luck but how the approach allows you to get to the chip. This makes it hard to have a definitive conclusion given the limited playoff samples we get watching the NBA.

However, when I watch Jokic right now - who is more Magic than Curry - I have a hard time thinking of another player who is as good at offense as Jokic. I look forward to seeing him against AD and seeing how that looks, but man, he just feels like a cheat code.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Thank you for mentioning this.

I'd really like to NOT be coming off as talking up Curry's performance in this series and talking as if the Lakers were lucky to win the series. The Lakers were freaking awesome, and I see them as a major contender for the chip.

But, in the regular season, together the Klay-Poole duo shoots 14.6 for 33.7 from the field, and 7.0 for 18.4 from 3.
In that game Klay-Poole shot 6 for 29 from the field, and 2 for 15 from 3.

Give the Warriors there missing 5 made 3's, and 3.6 other made 2's, that's like a 22 point swing, bigger than the winning margin.

The fundamental reality of how the Warriors have built around Curry is that he and they are literally banking that this not happening, so when it does, they're kinda screwed. As they say, live by the 3, die by the 3. For all involved it means a type of fragility in their potential for success, and a void where an achievement would have otherwise been each time it burns them...but it's also just a thing that happens sometimes for reasons that aren't really about Curry actually playing badly.

Do you have data for how many of those threes were contested? I certainly didn't get the impression the Lakers were just letting Klay shoot. We can debate just how much value Curry provided via his "gravity", but the Lakers approach was not, "we'll live with Klay beating us".

As for your larger point, Curry may not have performed sub-optimally in his role, but it is a smaller role than that of say, Magic who dictated the offense rather than merely play in its flow. The advantage of great passing is it can eliminate variables in a way "gravity" does not. Maybe JR overreacts to Curry's presence giving KD a dunk. Or...maybe he doesn't.

I don't have contested shot data handy. Feel free to post. I will say that I'm not really sure how it affects my point though. The Warriors were not going to get that far with 2 of their 3 shooters shooting very badly, and the Warriors certainly knew this ahead of time. The bet is that this mostly won't happen, but when it does, you're screwed.

Re: smaller role than Magic who dictated the offense, eliminates variables. Hmm, so I'll say:

- On-ball superstar roles certainly eliminate some variables and have a tendency to raise the floor.

- However the variance of 3-point shooting is a universal issue. Magic in his day wasn't trying to get guys to take those shots, and so there was less variance in the performance of the Laker offense on this front. Because they were playing against opponents who were universally playing bad-strategy basketball - aka, not shooting 3's - this worked. In the modern game, you have to have teammates hitting 3's or you're dead, and so there's really no escape from the variance.

- And yes, Curry's gravity absolutely gets guys dunks...and this was where AD's interior presence was a big deal in this series. How many times did guys get the ball on the interior and instead of going up for a shot they just brought it right back to the perimeter? That's because of AD.

- Similarly, having a guy like AD behind you allows you to play more aggressive man defense on all the perimeter guys.

- Final thing I'll say: I think the question of whether a Curry-type offensive player is better than a Magic-type offensive player is still something we're sorting out. The logic of the latter being less variance-prone makes sense, but in the end, it's not about how things look at the nadir of luck but how the approach allows you to get to the chip. This makes it hard to have a definitive conclusion given the limited playoff samples we get watching the NBA.

However, when I watch Jokic right now - who is more Magic than Curry - I have a hard time thinking of another player who is as good at offense as Jokic. I look forward to seeing him against AD and seeing how that looks, but man, he just feels like a cheat code.

I’m not AD is gonna get killed lol

It’s literally to the point where I almost think they’re gonna end up having someone else guard him and relying on help defense instead, which is fine, have AD take away cuts because post offense usually is more cutting vs threes if ur not helping baseline

I think with Jokic there’s a tendency to forget that he’s also like one of the most unstoppable scorers in the league right now, if not THE most unstoppable scorer in the league right now, if he wants to, he’s in that same tier as bron was awhile back where he could get the scoring title with high effeciency if he wanted too

It’s kind of similar to what I think with Curry and his off ball thing

Yes, Jokic’s passing ability is absolutely absurd and in the upper echelons of historic, But if he wasn’t this absurd level of an on ball scorer, he wouldn’t be the best offensive player in the league.

[ardee]

Current (semi realistic) ranges for guys on my potential ballot.

Jokic 1-3
Tatum 1-4
Butler 1-off
AD 1-off
LeBron 1-off
Embiid 3-off
Curry 4-off

Feels a bit odd to not be considering Giannis, but despite the #1 seed I wasn't particularly impressed by his RS (had him in the #5 range, and then obviously a big dud in the playoffs - injury influenced). Probably next in line for consideration. Shoutout to the RS guard trio of Luka/SGA/Dame.

What would it take for LeBron to finish one? 2016-esque CF and Finals performances?

[eminence]

Current (semi realistic) ranges for guys on my potential ballot.

Jokic 1-3
Tatum 1-4
Butler 1-off
AD 1-off
LeBron 1-off
Embiid 3-off
Curry 4-off

Feels a bit odd to not be considering Giannis, but despite the #1 seed I wasn't particularly impressed by his RS (had him in the #5 range, and then obviously a big dud in the playoffs - injury influenced). Probably next in line for consideration. Shoutout to the RS guard trio of Luka/SGA/Dame.

What would it take for LeBron to finish one? 2016-esque CF and Finals performances?

I see it as pretty straightforward for him to get to #2 (win a title, outplay AD in the final two series - then he'll at least have a strong argument). Getting by Jokic takes absolutely crushing him and the Nuggets in the WCF, I don't think it can go past 5 games, and it has to be a beatdown with Jokic himself playing poorly (though this would make it unlikely LeBron is outplaying AD, but I don't know, maybe there's some way).

2 is his more realistic ceiling.

[iggymcfrack]

It's feeling harder and harder to defend Embiid over Davis. AD's just been so much better when it really matters. It doesn't feel fluky at all either.

[MyUniBroDavis]

It's feeling harder and harder to defend Embiid over Davis. AD's just been so much better when it really matters. It doesn't feel fluky at all either.

And they’re both hurt so that’s not an excuse for embiid for this portion

[TheGOATRises007]

It's feeling harder and harder to defend Embiid over Davis. AD's just been so much better when it really matters. It doesn't feel fluky at all either.

I usually hate judging off of small sample sizes, but Embiid clearly dropped a level in the playoffs from his RS and AD basically maintained his level(his offense dipped, but his defense rose).

Don't really see an argument for Embiid over AD. Embiid's +- is also negative in the playoffs this year.

[iggymcfrack]

RAPTOR's the one major advanced stat that's been updating throughout the playoffs and combining RS + PS. Thought the results were pretty interesting:

1. Jokic +13.5
2. Davis +7.8
2. Doncic +7.8
2. Embiid +7.8
2. Lillard +7.8
6. Kawhi +6.8
7. Butler +6.6

[dontcalltimeout]

RAPTOR's the one major advanced stat that's been updating throughout the playoffs and combining RS + PS. Thought the results were pretty interesting:

1. Jokic +13.5
2. Davis +7.8
2. Doncic +7.8
2. Embiid +7.8
2. Lillard +7.8
6. Kawhi +6.8
7. Butler +6.6

There's also the Thinking Basketball playoff-only BPM

1. Jokic +9.9
2. Booker +7.2
3. Butler +6.5
4. Tatum +5.9
5. Horford +5.5
6. Davis +5.5
7. Edwards +4.9
8. Murray +4.8
9. Harden +4.7
10. James +4.6