2016 RAPM/RPM/etc. *Full 2016 RS + PS RPM & RAPM Updated 6/24*

[ceiling raiser]

Posting here since he isn't a POY candidate, but how awesome is it that Duncan, in a season where he turned 40, is 12th in the league in NPI RAPM? What a testament to his incredible longevity.

[franktony]

Posting here since he isn't a POY candidate, but how awesome is it that Duncan, in a season where he turned 40, is 12th in the league in RAPM? What a testament to his incredible longevity.

Yeah it was amazing. And he was leading the league in DRPM for most of the season until the knee injury.

Sadly, this season his only good knee finally call it quits. He can barely move or jump and his offensive game took a big hit. I hope he gets back, but I would understand if he doesn't.

I think he only gets back if he feels that he can still help the team playing @ elite level. At least defensively I believe he still can.

I think Manu and Duncan get back for 1 more season.

[SideshowBob]

For reference:

For reference/comparison here is a folder with J.E.'s 01-15 NPI RAPM, both single-year and multi-year with the same weighting as the 2016 set above.

01-15 NPI RAPM (M-Y, S-Y)

All .txt files in CSV format (Player, Offense, Defense, Net)

[yoyoboy]

Look at this stat made up to prop-up today's stars and put down Kobe - how is Kobe a -2.38?? If anything, his leadership and mamba mentality alone should mean he's always at least a +2 on offense. **** stat geeks...

OT: First thing I noticed was the vast gap between KD and WB in multiyear, but only a decent sized one in NPI; the opposite is true of Draymond and Steph (close in multiyear, massive gap in NPI). Thought that was really interesting.

Rubio and Harden drop like rocks in NPI, the Kyles and Kawhi stay relatively the same. Paul's near the top as usual. Love/Irving consistently strong/average. LeCoast being 7.6 doesn't seem real given how terrible he was most of the season - how much of this was the last ~40 games, playoffs included?

Draymond Green man. What a time to be alive

He wasn't though... People's memories are severely failing them. Even before he activated playoff mode, LeBron was still playing like a top 4 player in the regular season, yet everyone exaggerates the hell out of his coasting. His numbers, along with the Cavs' record, were still great before mid-March or so, and would've been good enough to win him an MVP in a lot of other years.

Of course, he ramped up his play late in the season, but let's not pretend that he was playing like a borderline All-Star for most of it.

[trex_8063]

For reference:

For reference/comparison here is a folder with J.E.'s 01-15 NPI RAPM, both single-year and multi-year with the same weighting as the 2016 set above.

01-15 NPI RAPM (M-Y, S-Y)

All .txt files in CSV format (Player, Offense, Defense, Net)

Thanks for keeping this updated. Any speculation on when full season (including playoffs) '16 RAPM will be available?

[ceiling raiser]

For reference:

For reference/comparison here is a folder with J.E.'s 01-15 NPI RAPM, both single-year and multi-year with the same weighting as the 2016 set above.

01-15 NPI RAPM (M-Y, S-Y)

All .txt files in CSV format (Player, Offense, Defense, Net)

Thanks for keeping this updated. Any speculation on when full season (including playoffs) '16 RAPM will be available?

It already is. Bondom linked it on the bottom of the previous page:

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1415201&start=420#p48110639

[yoyoboy]

For reference:

For reference/comparison here is a folder with J.E.'s 01-15 NPI RAPM, both single-year and multi-year with the same weighting as the 2016 set above.

01-15 NPI RAPM (M-Y, S-Y)

All .txt files in CSV format (Player, Offense, Defense, Net)

Thanks for keeping this updated. Any speculation on when full season (including playoffs) '16 RAPM will be available?

It's already here. He released it about an hour ago. I believe the link's on the previous page.

[trex_8063]

Thank you (both).

[RebelWithACause]

After everyone was raving about Giannis post ASB and his stint at PG, these are his numbers:

Giannis only 227th in NPI RAPM (single year RAPM) with his defense being a big negative and his offense a slight positive. Usually RAPM is the best evaluator of defensive impact.

Last year he was 204th in NPI RAPM with his defense being a slight positive and his offense a negative.

Multiyear RAPM has him 113th. This time neutral defensively and better offensively.

What are your thoughts on this?

His defense seems to be not adding up to positive impact, while he has DPOY tools!

Obviously shooting is holding him back offensively much more than we thought as well, even as a PG.

[RSCD3_]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/JerryEngelmann/status/746377998102847492[/tweet]

Who knew that Kyle Korver was as good defensively as LeBron and Kawhi

Or that dion waiters was a positive impact player this year

[Blackmill]

For reference:

For reference/comparison here is a folder with J.E.'s 01-15 NPI RAPM, both single-year and multi-year with the same weighting as the 2016 set above.

01-15 NPI RAPM (M-Y, S-Y)

All .txt files in CSV format (Player, Offense, Defense, Net)

Do you happen to know the weighting of the multi-year RAPM? Also, is the single-year 2016 RAPM prior informed? What about the multi-year -- is it PI, a weighted average of PI years, or a weighted average of non-PI years?

Apologies if this has already been answered.

[SideshowBob]

For reference:

For reference/comparison here is a folder with J.E.'s 01-15 NPI RAPM, both single-year and multi-year with the same weighting as the 2016 set above.

01-15 NPI RAPM (M-Y, S-Y)

All .txt files in CSV format (Player, Offense, Defense, Net)

Do you happen to know the weighting of the multi-year RAPM? Also, is the single-year 2016 RAPM prior informed? What about the multi-year -- is it PI, a weighted average of PI years, or a weighted average of non-PI years?

Apologies if this has already been answered.

Can't tell you precise weighting off the top of my head but its 3-year with less weight on each previous year.

Neither set is prior-informed. JE had elected to just run 3-year amd 1-year NPI now. The linked 01-15 is the same.

[kayess]

Posting here since he isn't a POY candidate, but how awesome is it that Duncan, in a season where he turned 40, is 12th in the league in NPI RAPM? What a testament to his incredible longevity.

It's unreal. To be one of the 15 most impactful per-possession players in the NBA at age 40... Those jokes about him never retiring are made for a reason - he's just been insane.

[kayess]

For reference:

Do you happen to know the weighting of the multi-year RAPM? Also, is the single-year 2016 RAPM prior informed? What about the multi-year -- is it PI, a weighted average of PI years, or a weighted average of non-PI years?

Apologies if this has already been answered.

Can't tell you precise weighting off the top of my head but its 3-year with less weight on each previous year.

Neither set is prior-informed. JE had elected to just run 3-year amd 1-year NPI now. The linked 01-15 is the same.

What was the multi-year weight before? All years up to present?

Also, we should really compile everything into a single sheet so that people can see specific players' YoY, then just filter per year if they wanna look at specific years (for both NPI and PI)

[kayess]

https://talkingpracticeblog.com/

Wow, didn't know he still updated. I was re-reading what IPV's about, and never realized it had box-score priors - but of course, the box score stats he's talking about aren't the usual ones we're accustomed to (even includes stuff for floor spacing bigs!!)

Curry's above Draymond, but the absolute values/separation is about what I'd expect based on their goodness in a vacuum, and how that translates to the team result. Westbrook also ahead of KD (by about the same margin), plus all the usual suspects are there (sans Korver though, sadly).

[PearGreatness]

Awesome to finally have the data in. RPM is a decent substitute, but there's nothing better than the real thing for me. A few thoughts,

Draymond Green: WOW! Did he just put up the highest mark ever?I can't find any from Lebron, Garnett, Duncan, or Kobe that are even within a point of this. Looking over SideshowBob's link, the second highest mark I found was from none other than Lamar Odom, one of the very few other stretch-playmaking-bigs with incredible defense that we've seen. Come to think of it, Kevin Garnett - who also dominates the +/- stats - sort of loosely fits in that category. I find this quite intriguing, possible very telling.

Draymond's defense: I had Kawhi as DPOY up until late in the season when I started paying more attention to Draymond. When I looked more closely at Draymond's defense(especially his communication) it became clear - to me - that he was the better defender. While these dRapms don't confirm anything, they certainly jive with my feelings at playoff's end.

Lebron: Did Lebron just post his highest NPI RAPM ever? What a time . Seriously though, I was never as low on him this season as most others seemed to be.

On defense, it seemed to me - though I never said anything - that there was somewhat of an age related bias creeping into most of the evaluations on that end. People would say things like "his defense is great this year, but clearly below 09-13", and I always kinda wondered if that "but" was a result of objective review, or rather if it was people "hedging their bets" with the knowledge of him being 31. I too find it difficult to believe that a 31 year old would play defense as well as a 24-28 year old, but that's absolutely what I saw in the playoffs.

On offense, there were clear negatives - the jumper, the vertical, the finishing - but also clear positives - moving without the ball, setting screens, minimizing those offense halting top of the key isolations. In many ways I viewed this season - offensively - as somewhat opposite of 2009; all star impact, decent portability vs. GOAT impact, terrible portability. So, the fact that he came out so high(1st) in actual offensive impact really surprises me. Given how I feel about his offensive portability, defense, and leadership this year, it's really tough for me to not rate this year as up there with the very best.

Lebron and Draymond comfortably ahead of the pack: I don't have much trouble seeing these two as the league's most valuable players. Draymond is probably the more controversial value here, given Steph's historic season, but Draymond is just such a pivotal piece to both the offense and defense.

Durant +1 over Westbrook in RAPM, Westbrook +1 over Durant in RPM: Is that just Westbrooks fantastic box score numbers at work?

Channing Frye above Kevin Love

Kyle Korver with +2.85 defense: I didn't really pay attention to his defense this year, but what?

Draymond's offense above Steph's offense: I'd love to see some actual splits here. This seems odd.

[Doctor MJ]

Some thoughts:

- So, I'm now at a place where I don't think Green's +/- numbers are a fluke, but I'm less impressed with him than I thought I'd be. The last 2 series of the playoffs really bothered me. What OKC did to him is an indication that in terms of being able to win it all with a team based around him, it at least to this point is possible to really take him out of the play - this differs from Curry who defenses have to give up so much in order to reduce his personal production. The big thing in the last series was everything around his suspension. There's really no way really peg how much damage he did to the Warriors' championship odds, but it was sizable.

- I really don't know what to do with Durant & Westbrook looking at the various stats. RAPM prefers Durant, but seemingly everything else in the +/- family disagrees.

- Man, Anthony Davis' year.