'17-'18 POY discussion

[dontcalltimeout]

What are everyone's thoughts on DPOY? It seems like a weird year with some usual frontrunners injured (Leonard, Roberson), missing significant time (Gobert) or taking a step back (Green).

Of the traditional bigs, Gobert has been phenomenal and a key piece of Utah's winning 19 of their last 21. Their margin of victory has gone from +1.8 pre-all star to +9.1 post all-star (they now have the 5th best SRS at +3.2) and all of this improvement is on the defensive end. At the same time, Gobert missed a lot of games from mid-November through mid-January and has only played 41% of available minutes. Does his excellence make up for it?

Embiid has been pretty good (not Gobert-level) and has played over 50% of his possible minutes. Anthony Davis might deserve it just from sheer minutes (he's played 68% of available minutes), or Giannis (73% of available minutes).

Horford had some early buzz because of Boston's defensive excellence. He's played more minutes than Embiid but fewer than AD or Giannis.

Also, DRPM likes Oladipo more than Giannis or Horford. Anyone see a case for him?

[Lost92Bricks]

So has Toronto so nah not really. Golden State is clearly cruising at this point. Now if Houston was playing like full force Golden State I'd be shocked but the Clippers were like a +7ish team for 3 straight years when CP3 was there and Houston is way more talented than the Clippers minus CP3 were.

2 top superstars with a great supporting cast winning 60+ games is what's supposed to happen.

Houston is playing like full force Golden State.

They're 37-4 with Harden and Paul. 74 win pace. +12 point differential.

[dhsilv2]

What are everyone's thoughts on DPOY? It seems like a weird year with some usual frontrunners injured (Leonard, Roberson), missing significant time (Gobert) or taking a step back (Green).

Of the traditional bigs, Gobert has been phenomenal and a key piece of Utah's winning 19 of their last 21. Their margin of victory has gone from +1.8 pre-all star to +9.1 post all-star (they now have the 5th best SRS at +3.2) and all of this improvement is on the defensive end. At the same time, Gobert missed a lot of games from mid-November through mid-January and has only played 41% of available minutes. Does his excellence make up for it?

Embiid has been pretty good (not Gobert-level) and has played over 50% of his possible minutes. Anthony Davis might deserve it just from sheer minutes (he's played 68% of available minutes), or Giannis (73% of available minutes).

Horford had some early buzz because of Boston's defensive excellence. He's played more minutes than Embiid but fewer than AD or Giannis.

Also, DRPM likes Oladipo more than Giannis or Horford. Anyone see a case for him?

I'm calling it for Davis. Gobert is the best defender, but I think he missed too much/doesn't have enough people championing him. Embiid or Gobert should be the front runners unless you go with lower minute types.

[eminence]

Gobert's been the best defender in the game when healthy, don't think it's really all that close, Roberson in 2nd - but he's played even less and won't be coming back. Embiid is the middle ground of quality/minutes. Davis probably the current leader of the case-based-on-more-minutes guys (Horford/Draymond/etc). Wouldn't feel great giving it to one of them.

If it ended today I'd go Embiid, but if Gobert finishes out strong I think he should get it.

[ardee]

So has Toronto so nah not really. Golden State is clearly cruising at this point. Now if Houston was playing like full force Golden State I'd be shocked but the Clippers were like a +7ish team for 3 straight years when CP3 was there and Houston is way more talented than the Clippers minus CP3 were.

2 top superstars with a great supporting cast winning 60+ games is what's supposed to happen.

Houston is playing like full force Golden State.

They're 37-4 with Harden and Paul. 74 win pace. +12 point differential.

Any idea what the record is when it extends to those 2 and Capela?

[therealbig3]

Wolves are 4-3 with a +3.14 point margin against a brutally tough schedule since Butler went down.

Looks like Jimmy Butler didn't magically become the best player in the league because of some +/- data

7-game sample size...and two of those wins were blowouts against terrible teams.

Sample sizes FTW: if you just look at their other 5 games, they're 2-3 with a -2.8 point differential.

Overall, they're 34-22 with Butler this year with a +3.89 MOV, and 6-7 without Butler this year with a -2.31 MOV this year, for a total difference of +6.20. That looks like an MVP drop-off to me, albeit not anything super crazy, like what we've seen out of Curry and LeBron. Still, Curry has missed a ton of time, and LeBron has played like crap by his standards, so having Butler over them (before his injury) wasn't that crazy, and you couldn't really say anybody else was outplaying him all that much, if at all.

[Lost92Bricks]

Any idea what the record is when it extends to those 2 and Capela?

34-2

[Dr Spaceman]

Re: DPOY, as long as he doesn’t miss any time in the remaining RS+PS, Rudy Gobert is almost certain to be #1 on my ballot. For one thing, I really do think the Brogdon ROY-style award win is a shame, and I’d hate to give DPOY to a guy who just wasn’t really close to Gobert’s level.

But way more importantly, the Jazz have been able to leverage Gobert’s defense into a monster of a team. In their last 21 games they’re playing at a 74 win pace, which is clearly unsustainable, but they have been damn good and it’s clear that their outlier-level defense with Gobert is the driver of that.

[ardee]

Any idea what the record is when it extends to those 2 and Capela?

34-2

Oof. Maybe next year if everyone is healthy they go for 70 and 10 SRS.

[Pillendreher]

Regarding Russ, I think it's very noteable that the team only works with a decent enough defender next to him:



Without either Roberson or Huestis with him on the court, the Thunder's NetRtG is -1.0 in 1086 minutes. That's not just personel tho - that's also scheme and rotations.

I'm just hoping Russ can build some momentum over the next couple of seasons and get a decent seed so that they can at least make it to the 2nd round, even without Roberson.

As far as POY goes, I don't think he should be near the top. Way too inconsistent, not carrying this team like he used to.

[dhsilv2]

Any idea what the record is when it extends to those 2 and Capela?

34-2

Oof. Maybe next year if everyone is healthy they go for 70 and 10 SRS.

Paul healthy for a year? Come on now, he's a 60 game guy from here on out.

[eminence]

Any Wizards I should be considering? Feels like it's been a good team effort with nobody really standing out. Seems like almost every other playoff contender in each conference has at least one guy worth tagging going into the playoffs (maybe minus the Clippers/Heat/Spurs).

[dhsilv2]

Any Wizards I should be considering? Feels like it's been a good team effort with nobody really standing out. Seems like almost every other playoff contender in each conference has at least one guy worth tagging going into the playoffs (maybe minus the Clippers/Heat/Spurs).

RPM loves Porter, though in that role I'm not sure POY works.

[Dr Spaceman]

Any Wizards I should be considering? Feels like it's been a good team effort with nobody really standing out. Seems like almost every other playoff contender in each conference has at least one guy worth tagging going into the playoffs (maybe minus the Clippers/Heat/Spurs).

Bradley Beal has had a breakout year but he’s a contender for top 15, not top 5. That said IMO it’s pretty likely he will be the Wizards best player going forward.

[Krodis]

For DPOY it has to be Gobert even with the missed time, right? They're unbelievable with him and awful without him.

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[dontcalltimeout]

But way more importantly, the Jazz have been able to leverage Gobert’s defense into a monster of a team. In their last 21 games they’re playing at a 74 win pace, which is clearly unsustainable, but they have been damn good and it’s clear that their outlier-level defense with Gobert is the driver of that.

I hear ya, Gobert is a legit star. The only thing that gives me pause is that if they both don't miss any more time, a guy like Davis could end up playing 950 more minutes on the season. (I don't love AD's defense overall, he's mostly pretty good).

I think the case could be made that Gobert's defense is so far ahead of guys that it doesn't matter. But his missing time is the reason the Jazz have had to fight this hard to make the 8th seed.

[K_chile22]

Any idea what the record is when it extends to those 2 and Capela?

34-2

Oof. Maybe next year if everyone is healthy they go for 70 and 10 SRS.

Honestly if Harden only missed a game or so (this was his first year missing more than 1 game since his second in Houston). Capela didn't miss 6, and CP missed closer to 10 than 20, I think they coulda hit 70. Not to mention important guys luke Luc (17 games), Ariza (13 games), and EG (just 9, but some coincided with CP3 being down, which really sunk their bench units) missing a lot of games at inopportune times.

[K_chile22]

Regarding Russ, I think it's very noteable that the team only works with a decent enough defender next to him:



Without either Roberson or Huestis with him on the court, the Thunder's NetRtG is -1.0 in 1086 minutes. That's not just personel tho - that's also scheme and rotations.

I'm just hoping Russ can build some momentum over the next couple of seasons and get a decent seed so that they can at least make it to the 2nd round, even without Roberson.

As far as POY goes, I don't think he should be near the top. Way too inconsistent, not carrying this team like he used to.

I've long been on the Russ is not a good defender train, but man. He's been brutal on that end when most (including me) thought he'd improve with less usage. Though to be fair there hasn't been as much relief as anticipated

[bondom34]

Eh...he hasn't been good on that end at times. But he never was. Hes still generally neutral, if you're buying the lineups PG has been a minus defender without Dre and I'm not buying that

[Pillendreher]

I've long been on the Russ is not a good defender train, but man. He's been brutal on that end when most (including me) thought he'd improve with less usage. Though to be fair there hasn't been as much relief as anticipated

Yeah, he has not been good most of the time. I hoped maybe he'd pick up the slack with the Roberson injury, but so far that hasn't happened. Since our defensive scheme is basically built around dealing with whatever Russ gives his opponent on any given defensive possession, that doesn't work with probably the best wing defender in the league sidelined.

The main problem this season is that the team is way too volatile.



Now of course they're losing games they're below average both defensively and offensively and win those they're above average in, respectively. But this still illustrates what has been going on with us this season: When things are clicking offensively, we're a tough out. Same goes for when we're defending well. The problem is that we have not been doing that on a consistent enough basis (above average offensively in 53 % of the games, above average defensively in 49 % of the games; above average on both ends in the same game: 20 % of the games... ) and have had trouble winning games when either the offense or the defense doesn't work properly. Over the first 31 games, we went 4-12 when our DRtG was worse than 100 in a game. Our first real shootout win was at the end of December vs Atlanta. And since our offense has come alive in December, we're 4-11 when our offense is below average because we can't defend anymore.

I guess you could chalk it up to consistency. We score, but don't defend. We defend, but can't score. Russ goes off and Melo goes 2/14. George goes off and Russ is bricking long jumpers. If we just could put together a cohesive effort on both ends, we'd be much better. Playing the same defensive scheme even though Roberson is out and not having any sort of offensive philosophy besides playing PnR and isoing will not help with that unfortunately.