'17-'18 POY discussion

[eminence]

Preliminary top 5.

1. Harden
2. LeBron

The Cavs didn't look any better than any number of secondary contenders could have looked in the finals, I needed something more out of them. Just a great all around season from Harden, grabs the top spot in a bit of a down year, but it's a top 5 season in any season I can think of.

Then 3 different categories. Still weighing how I balance the different positives/negatives, in order within categories.

Injury issues, but would have easily made it if healthy:
Curry
CP3

Cruised all regular season, turned up in playoffs(LBJ falls into this category as well, but turned it on more consistently/to a higher level in the playoffs):
Draymond
KD

Consistently great all season, but not quite tier 1 status:
Davis
Oladipo
Giannis

If I had to make a gut call today I'd go:
1. Harden
2. LeBron
3. Curry
4. Davis
5. Draymond

3-5 really could wind up looking a bunch of different ways though.

[Dr Spaceman]

08 Manu had just as good or better case for top 3. I stand by Manu has been criminally under valued and while yeah I don't have him top 3 in 08 either, there's a DARN good case.

FYI 05 I'll take Many over nash

I do think Manu himself was better in 05 but I suppose the 08 argument is interesting. Still though I essentially can’t see him above KG, Kobe, Paul or LeBron so he’s disqualified for me.

As far as Nash in 05, I’m flabbergasted honestly. Nash had like one of the GOAT series ever against Dallas and was spectacular against SA as well. Given Manu’s main argument is his playoff performance I can’t get there with him over Nash.

Manu is underrated in general I agree, but on this board he may be overrated. It’s just hard to compare him favorably to guys who actually play star minutes for their teams and are within the same ballpark impact wise. The Spurs obviously played best with him out here, but most teams can Bank on 37 minutes of that impact as opposed to 28-31.

Oh man off to get me heated! lol. Manu was nearly 35 a game in the 05 playoffs (23 games). What's this 28-31 crap? Even in the season it was 30. Really 37 is that big a difference? Oh and Manu league the league in RAPM in 05. Nash was 26th in RAPM.

Manu played super star minutes in the playoffs. This seems odd here in the POY discussion, but I think it has to be discussed. The "manu" model is being used for more and more stars today. Coaches are more and more trying to cut minutes to preserve stars and Manu in his prime wasn't playing crazy low minutes when you compare it to today. A bit less sure but it wasn't the same gap. Why should he get downgraded because Pop figured things out sooner?

35 minutes per game is about 20% less than Nash (40.7), Wade (40.8), Nowitzki (42.4) were playing. They just flat produced more than him. I get the argument that guys are playing less now and that’s partially true but the reality with Manu was that he physically wasn’t able to play as much as the other guys. I see no reason to think Manu would be in line with today’s stars given the physical demands of the game today and his durability issues.

As far as RAPM, Nash’s next 5 seasons are like the 5 best we have on record so I don’t really care about the 05 result which was probably quite biased by his Dallas prior.

[ShotCreator]

Feels like such a dystopian timeline of the NBA. I remember the joy of watching the league in 2014. Miami gets blown away and LeBron goes to Cleveland.

Several teams had legitimate title shots the next year. What a complete derailing of the decade from that point.

1. Harden
2. LeBron
3. Davis
4. Curry
5. Paul

Durant, Giannis, Butler, Jokic, Green all on the fringes for me.


No one has a case over Harden IMO.

[Doctor MJ]

So, where I'm at:

Top 2 slots are between LeBron and Harden. I'll be thinking further on this.

Next 3 spots I currently have:

3. Durant - superstar who carried the load for the champs
4. Curry - vital component of champs, brilliant peaks, but injuries and spotty play
5. Davis - great year that feels like a step forward

Honorable Mention:
Paul - great year that further shapes his legacy regardless of just missing out
Giannis - clearly a Top 10 player
Gobert - I think he's a Top 10 players
Oladipo - feels like a clear Top 10 season
Draymond - still worthy of this shout out

The guy I'm sad to leave off her is Horford, but oh well.

I’m with you on a lot of these, but man, Curry over Davis is tough for me.

Curry missed a full 1/3rd of both his team’s regular and post season and was limited when he did play for much of the rest of the PS.

And to be frank, o don’t even think he played well this year. I struggle to remember him putting together a full 48 minutes of good basketball. Even the games he was great in he’d often sleep walk through the first two quarters and then just blitz them with 7 threes in the third quarters. I mean it won his team games but realistically how many guys have a cast who could hold serve against Finals-caliber opponents and wait for him to get his **** together? Certainly not LeBron who was averaging 47 minutes and certainly not Davis who’s team was just wrecked every moment he sat.

I just don’t see it with Curry. I almost grade out his season as a GOAT-level sixth man. His minute load was Ginobili-esque and while his team obviously played by far their best ball with him running the show he just didn’t have it in him to run the show consistently. Ranking Curry this high means you think essentially the 7 good quarters he had outweigh full playoff rounds worth of lesser, but still superstar impact.

So, some raw +/- numbers for comparison:

Curry 616
Durant 526
Thompson 525
Green 479

Harden 597
Paul 561
Davis 302
LeBron 101

Now, the normal caveat applies that raw +/- is not a good way to rank players. I'll also point out that PJ Tucker led the league in +/- this year with 619, and aside from that being the case-in-point of not taking +/- that seriously, I just think that's so cool for Tucker who has had to claw his way to a successful NBA career.

But I've been struck all year by how far above his teammates Curry is in +/- despite his missed time. I don't ignore that he disappointed some in the playoffs, but of course if he hadn't disappointed, he'd have been my #1. He's not my #1, but I'm reluctant to move him too far down my list. The fact remains for me that Curry at his best has the most transformative impact of anyone in the game, he's played that way for a good chunk of the season, and the team for which he serves as foundation and keystone won the title.

I'm a Davis fan and I'm pulling for him to be the best player in the world, but at this point I just don't see what he's doing as in the same tier as Curry and so I have to really ask myself on what basis I'm putting Davis ahead. And while it was thrilling to see the Pelicans catch fire with the loss of Cousins and seeing them sweep a higher seed in the playoffs, I still don't think they're a real contender and I still think it's pretty questionable whether Davis has developed the more mystical arts of alphaing that get talked about in terms of "just knowing how to win".

Last note, I can say a lot of the same things about Paul as I said about Curry, and to me the Davis vs Paul debate is actually tougher for me. But Paul is weaker on several points than Curry and I felt comfortable giving the nod to Davis there.

[ronnymac2]

lebron's injury appears to be self inflicted

does this affect anyone's evaluation of him? I've seen some people dock 85 Bird for his injury/bar fight, same thing apply here?

LeBron finally has a supporting cast.

[therealbig3]

You should also really use RAPM to compare players in similar roles. Nash was a superstar lead guard that handled the bulk of the team's ball handling and overall offensive creation. Ginobili was a 6th man that came in for high-energy spurts. We saw Harden extremely successful in the same role in OKC. And Manu was incredible in that role, and yeah, obviously he also played a lot of minutes with the starters and late in games against the other team's best lineups as well, but in general his minutes were staggered in a way that it allowed him to come in and create offense in spurts, and he overall played a lot less minutes than other offensive stars.

Furthermore, I'm sorry, but I just don't buy a lot of Manu's great DRAPM results. He was a good defender, but it paints him as one of the elite wing defenders in the game, and I just can't get there. We've seen plenty of guards get propped up with regards to DRAPM because of the team situation they're in. Again, he was a very good defender, but not quite that good. Dirk had an amazing DRAPM in 2011 too, and I don't think he suddenly activated his inner Tim Duncan that year. I think he had a pretty perfect situation around him in terms of personnel and fit that allowed him to look really good on the defensive side of the ball as far as +/- was concerned.

[Texas Chuck]

Dirk had an amazing DRAPM in 2011 too, and I don't think he suddenly activated his inner Tim Duncan that year. I think he had a pretty perfect situation around him in terms of personnel and fit that allowed him to look really good on the defensive side of the ball as far as +/- was concerned.

How dare you!

Yeah Dirk still moved pretty well that year---really the last year of his career where his mobility wasn't a major liability defensively and of course he had good size and hands. But he benefited from strong defenders all around him especially once Butler went down. Chandler,Marion, DeShawn, and Kidd were all plus defenders around him in the starting lineup. I think at best Dirk was the 7th best defender on his own team come playoff time? Behind Haywood and Ian as well.


As to Manu, I think he was quite a good defender and some years nearly elite. Great mobility, size, awareness, and he knew with Duncan anchoring the defense and other intelligent defenders on the court, that he could be really aggressive in his man defense. Of the star offensive wings of his era, I would definitely have him the superior defender to Kobe and Wade for instance despite Kobe's accolades, and Wade's highlight blocks. I think he was just far more consistently good than they were.

[dhsilv2]

I do think Manu himself was better in 05 but I suppose the 08 argument is interesting. Still though I essentially can’t see him above KG, Kobe, Paul or LeBron so he’s disqualified for me.

As far as Nash in 05, I’m flabbergasted honestly. Nash had like one of the GOAT series ever against Dallas and was spectacular against SA as well. Given Manu’s main argument is his playoff performance I can’t get there with him over Nash.

Manu is underrated in general I agree, but on this board he may be overrated. It’s just hard to compare him favorably to guys who actually play star minutes for their teams and are within the same ballpark impact wise. The Spurs obviously played best with him out here, but most teams can Bank on 37 minutes of that impact as opposed to 28-31.

Oh man off to get me heated! lol. Manu was nearly 35 a game in the 05 playoffs (23 games). What's this 28-31 crap? Even in the season it was 30. Really 37 is that big a difference? Oh and Manu league the league in RAPM in 05. Nash was 26th in RAPM.

Manu played super star minutes in the playoffs. This seems odd here in the POY discussion, but I think it has to be discussed. The "manu" model is being used for more and more stars today. Coaches are more and more trying to cut minutes to preserve stars and Manu in his prime wasn't playing crazy low minutes when you compare it to today. A bit less sure but it wasn't the same gap. Why should he get downgraded because Pop figured things out sooner?

35 minutes per game is about 20% less than Nash (40.7), Wade (40.8), Nowitzki (42.4) were playing. They just flat produced more than him. I get the argument that guys are playing less now and that’s partially true but the reality with Manu was that he physically wasn’t able to play as much as the other guys. I see no reason to think Manu would be in line with today’s stars given the physical demands of the game today and his durability issues.

As far as RAPM, Nash’s next 5 seasons are like the 5 best we have on record so I don’t really care about the 05 result which was probably quite biased by his Dallas prior.

Manu had a better RAPM in 06, 07, and 08. I have no idea what you're talking about with the next 5 seasons. I saw no reason why manu couldn't up his minutes in the playoffs. I'm with you if you're talking the whole season, but the spurs were winning titles with manu in that role, there's no upside to playing him more given that or value lost.

[dhsilv2]

You should also really use RAPM to compare players in similar roles. Nash was a superstar lead guard that handled the bulk of the team's ball handling and overall offensive creation. Ginobili was a 6th man that came in for high-energy spurts. We saw Harden extremely successful in the same role in OKC. And Manu was incredible in that role, and yeah, obviously he also played a lot of minutes with the starters and late in games against the other team's best lineups as well, but in general his minutes were staggered in a way that it allowed him to come in and create offense in spurts, and he overall played a lot less minutes than other offensive stars.

Furthermore, I'm sorry, but I just don't buy a lot of Manu's great DRAPM results. He was a good defender, but it paints him as one of the elite wing defenders in the game, and I just can't get there. We've seen plenty of guards get propped up with regards to DRAPM because of the team situation they're in. Again, he was a very good defender, but not quite that good. Dirk had an amazing DRAPM in 2011 too, and I don't think he suddenly activated his inner Tim Duncan that year. I think he had a pretty perfect situation around him in terms of personnel and fit that allowed him to look really good on the defensive side of the ball as far as +/- was concerned.

35 minutes a game is not some freaking 6th man role. The years discussed 05 manu started every game in the regular season. In the playoffs pop played with manu off the bench but he still started 15 of 23 games.

[dhsilv2]

Dirk had an amazing DRAPM in 2011 too, and I don't think he suddenly activated his inner Tim Duncan that year. I think he had a pretty perfect situation around him in terms of personnel and fit that allowed him to look really good on the defensive side of the ball as far as +/- was concerned.

How dare you!

Yeah Dirk still moved pretty well that year---really the last year of his career where his mobility wasn't a major liability defensively and of course he had good size and hands. But he benefited from strong defenders all around him especially once Butler went down. Chandler,Marion, DeShawn, and Kidd were all plus defenders around him in the starting lineup. I think at best Dirk was the 7th best defender on his own team come playoff time? Behind Haywood and Ian as well.


As to Manu, I think he was quite a good defender and some years nearly elite. Great mobility, size, awareness, and he knew with Duncan anchoring the defense and other intelligent defenders on the court, that he could be really aggressive in his man defense. Of the star offensive wings of his era, I would definitely have him the superior defender to Kobe and Wade for instance despite Kobe's accolades, and Wade's highlight blocks. I think he was just far more consistently good than they were.

Agree with this. Manu was an absolutely great defender and yes Duncan was a factor, but it takes elite BBIQ to know how to best use having Duncan on your team.

[Dr Spaceman]

So, where I'm at:

Top 2 slots are between LeBron and Harden. I'll be thinking further on this.

Next 3 spots I currently have:

3. Durant - superstar who carried the load for the champs
4. Curry - vital component of champs, brilliant peaks, but injuries and spotty play
5. Davis - great year that feels like a step forward

Honorable Mention:
Paul - great year that further shapes his legacy regardless of just missing out
Giannis - clearly a Top 10 player
Gobert - I think he's a Top 10 players
Oladipo - feels like a clear Top 10 season
Draymond - still worthy of this shout out

The guy I'm sad to leave off her is Horford, but oh well.

I’m with you on a lot of these, but man, Curry over Davis is tough for me.

Curry missed a full 1/3rd of both his team’s regular and post season and was limited when he did play for much of the rest of the PS.

And to be frank, o don’t even think he played well this year. I struggle to remember him putting together a full 48 minutes of good basketball. Even the games he was great in he’d often sleep walk through the first two quarters and then just blitz them with 7 threes in the third quarters. I mean it won his team games but realistically how many guys have a cast who could hold serve against Finals-caliber opponents and wait for him to get his **** together? Certainly not LeBron who was averaging 47 minutes and certainly not Davis who’s team was just wrecked every moment he sat.

I just don’t see it with Curry. I almost grade out his season as a GOAT-level sixth man. His minute load was Ginobili-esque and while his team obviously played by far their best ball with him running the show he just didn’t have it in him to run the show consistently. Ranking Curry this high means you think essentially the 7 good quarters he had outweigh full playoff rounds worth of lesser, but still superstar impact.

So, some raw +/- numbers for comparison:

Curry 616
Durant 526
Thompson 525
Green 479

Harden 597
Paul 561
Davis 302
LeBron 101

Now, the normal caveat applies that raw +/- is not a good way to rank players. I'll also point out that PJ Tucker led the league in +/- this year with 619, and aside from that being the case-in-point of not taking +/- that seriously, I just think that's so cool for Tucker who has had to claw his way to a successful NBA career.

But I've been struck all year by how far above his teammates Curry is in +/- despite his missed time. I don't ignore that he disappointed some in the playoffs, but of course if he hadn't disappointed, he'd have been my #1. He's not my #1, but I'm reluctant to move him too far down my list. The fact remains for me that Curry at his best has the most transformative impact of anyone in the game, he's played that way for a good chunk of the season, and the team for which he serves as foundation and keystone won the title.

I'm a Davis fan and I'm pulling for him to be the best player in the world, but at this point I just don't see what he's doing as in the same tier as Curry and so I have to really ask myself on what basis I'm putting Davis ahead. And while it was thrilling to see the Pelicans catch fire with the loss of Cousins and seeing them sweep a higher seed in the playoffs, I still don't think they're a real contender and I still think it's pretty questionable whether Davis has developed the more mystical arts of alphaing that get talked about in terms of "just knowing how to win".

Last note, I can say a lot of the same things about Paul as I said about Curry, and to me the Davis vs Paul debate is actually tougher for me. But Paul is weaker on several points than Curry and I felt comfortable giving the nod to Davis there.

Hmmm...

Well, going back to my pet example:

2005 raw +/- leaders
Ginobili +844
Duncan +765
Nash +728
Nowitzki +558
Shaq +540
Wade +481
Garnett +141

Parker +570
Horry +415

And please note this is not intended to be a critique of raw +/-. I like the way you use it in cases like these and I get why it’s releveant. But if it’s supposed to be a counter to me saying he played like a 6th man, well it doesn’t really hit the mark unless I’m missing something.

And I understand Davis is flawed and have some issues with him along the same lines as you do, but man, do you really think NOP makes the playoffs with 51 games of Curry instead of 70 of Davis? I understand this is not the be all and end all because the ceiling-raising act Curry does has obvious and dramatic effects. Ginobili’s did as well.

But the truth is Curry isn’t the same guy he was in 2016. He doesn’t have the off the dribble juice. He can’t really get by guys in isolation. And I think these flaws are masked really well by Durant’s presence. Curry was straight up awful in games 2, 4, and 5 against Houston and wasn’t particularly good in game 1. That leaves basically 3 games of good production from your ostensible Star... and really more like 3 combined quarters within those games. How many teams are loaded enough to actually get by with that?

Maybe it’s injury, maybe it’s conditioning, maybe it’s defensive schemes, maybe it’s Maybeline. But Curry really struggled for a lot of this postseason and I don’t think his good games coinciding with big blowouts do enough to make up for that. It still makes him the scariest offensive weapon in the league, but not close to the most versatile which is where he used to be.

Also, love PJ. he’s skyrocketed up to my top tier favorite players this season.

[Starboy]

Now Steph can't get by his man in isolation? That's an interesting take. I'd like to hear more on this mind-blowing discovery you made, but NBA teams haven't yet.

[Unbiased hater]

1) Durant
2) Harden
3) Oladipo
4) Gobert
5) Horford

I had Lillard and Butler on my list after regular season but they didn't played good in playoffs so i swapped them with Gobert who was good in RS, transformed his team from lottery team to dark horse candidate team in PO and Horford who was leader of the Boston Celtics team that went to the ECF . I had Harden at number 1 and Oladipo at 5 but bc Oladipo played even better i put him at third place now and bc Durant was the reason why Warriors beat Rockets and why they won in the Finals i put him at number 1 altough Harden was great in RS and in PO too .

[Dr Spaceman]

Now Steph can't get by his man in isolation? That's an interesting take. I'd like to hear more on this mind-blowing discovery you made, but NBA teams haven't yet.

NBA teams put it into practice already. Why do you think Houston was so switch happy? Harden was the only guy he could legitimately get by. Watch him go at Gobert last year and then watch him struggle against Capela and try to tell me he’s the same guy.

I mean Curry had a PER of 22.3 this postseason. I’m not breaking now ground by saying he wasn’t stellar.

[Joey Wheeler]

1) Durant
2) Harden
3) Oladipo
4) Gobert
5) Horford

I had Lillard and Butler on my list after regular season but they didn't played good in playoffs so i swapped them with Gobert who was good in RS, transformed his team from lottery team to dark horse candidate team in PO and Horford who was leader of the Boston Celtics team that went to the ECF . I had Harden at number 1 and Oladipo at 5 but bc Oladipo played even better i put him at third place now and bc Durant was the reason why Warriors beat Rockets and why they won in the Finals i put him at number 1 altough Harden was great in RS and in PO too .

Hmm that's a weird list... Oladipo, Gobert and Horford better than Lebron James or Anthony Davis, care to elaborate a bit on that?

[Starboy]

Now Steph can't get by his man in isolation? That's an interesting take. I'd like to hear more on this mind-blowing discovery you made, but NBA teams haven't yet.

NBA teams put it into practice already. Why do you think Houston was so switch happy? Harden was the only guy he could legitimately get by. Watch him go at Gobert last year and then watch him struggle against Capela and try to tell me he’s the same guy.

I mean Curry had a PER of 22.3 this postseason. I’m not breaking now ground by saying he wasn’t stellar.

That means nothing. Every team in final 4 switched on every player. I'm not sure what that proves.

I dont know what exactly you were watching but Curry did most of his damage against Rockets in the paint. He drove into the paint with higher success than any other player with meaningful drive attempts in the conference finals.


He had a nice playoff run, but it was obvious that it took him time to get in game shape after the injury. Coming back in the middle of the playoffs and having to get in game shape vs a team that shut down Lillard and McColum is not an easy feat. Just discounting this as Steph "not being able to get by his defender in isolation" is somewhere between hilarious and absurd.

[Starboy]

Lebron
Harden
Durant
Steph
Davis

Lebron gets a nod over Harden because of Harden's playoff inconsistensies.

Durant gets a nod over Steph for Steph's missed games during regular season.

[Unbiased hater]

1) Durant
2) Harden
3) Oladipo
4) Gobert
5) Horford

I had Lillard and Butler on my list after regular season but they didn't played good in playoffs so i swapped them with Gobert who was good in RS, transformed his team from lottery team to dark horse candidate team in PO and Horford who was leader of the Boston Celtics team that went to the ECF . I had Harden at number 1 and Oladipo at 5 but bc Oladipo played even better i put him at third place now and bc Durant was the reason why Warriors beat Rockets and why they won in the Finals i put him at number 1 altough Harden was great in RS and in PO too .

Hmm that's a weird list... Oladipo, Gobert and Horford better than Lebron James or Anthony Davis, care to elaborate a bit on that?

Lebron didn't played team basketball and he was padding his stats so that media can talk about he is the goat so i don't take his stats seriously. They were so agressive in promoting him that they were hyping some moves that weren't so spectacular just so they can have case for him in MVP or goat conversations . Beside his stats his season wasn't so good bc he had one month or month and a half where he played really bad during RS , struggled vs Pacers in the playoffs and was locked by Bagdanovic in some games. He was good against Raptors but then he had problems to beat Celics that were without their best players and it was team where their best players were rookies and Horford who is good but isn't all time great player and needed 7 games to beat them. He played good in Game 1 aganst GSW but then wasn't that great in other games and especially was bad in Game 3 when other players on his team played good and game was close but he was passive and they would won if he played better and then in Game 4 he just waited end of the game when Warriors took that lead in the 3rd quarter and then thing with his cast excuse after the game cemented my opinion that he can't be POY or in top 5 players of the year.

Thing with AD is different bc he had good RS and PO but i won't put him instead of Oladipo bc he had great RS and PO so i rate hm very high and think that he should be in conversation for MVP and just for MIP but i could think about should i swap Gobert or Horford with him but the reason why i didn't is bc of the officiating in the first two games vs Portland. In first game refs had criteria that put his team in much better position bc they allowed harder defense on the perimeter against Lillard and on the other side they would call every touch on AD as a foul so they didn't allowed hard defense on AD so he could shoot far from basket and when he decide to drive to the basket players that were guarding him couldn't go hard on him bc they were afraid that every touch would result in free throws so refs enabled him to be unstoppable and he had advantage over his defenders. Favouritism in the Game 2 was much more transparent bc AD struggled in that game and it was very close game but then refs started to stop Portland possesions and to give the ball to the NO with fouls that weren't fouls, giving the ball that go out of bounds to NO altough it should been ball for PDX etc. and they wouldn't win that game without refs. After that they had blowout win in Game 3 and later they swept them so everyone forget about this and even if someone started to talk about everyone would start to laugh about that but officiating on those two games made me think that NBA wanted him to win his first PO game and to win his first series and started to think did they helped him to get to the PO too bc i didn't watched their games and only read reports how he is helping them to go to the playoffs and how he carry his team. Those two games changed how i see his season and how i see him as a player so i wasn't thinking about him when i was putting this list .

[Dupp]

Very objective...

[iggymcfrack]

Where can I get some more advanced defensive statistics for this season. I remember seeing a post highlighting the percentages different players shot when in close proximity to LeBron for the 2016 regular season/postseason and Finals and in retrospect, it made a big difference in how I viewed his run that postseason. Would be interested to see what kind of impact Draymond, Embiid, and Anthony Davis had in their respective playoff series before coming up with a final DPOY Top 3. (Will have Gobert #1 regardless.)