2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[70sFan]

The Celtics made 22 threes to the Bucks' 4. And Bud's defensive system made it very easy for them to make those shots. That was the game right there. I don't see how this is a vindication, not an indictment, of Bud's system despite the ORtg.

You miss one small point:

- in RS, Celtics took 50.3 2PA on average and made 54.7% of them,
- in game 7, Celtics took 33 2PA and made 45.5% of them.

Yeah, Celtics took a lot of threes and they made them on unusually high rate. It didn't lead to efficient offense though. It was league average offense, despite making 22 threes. The truth is that you can live even with such a hot shooting night as long as your opponent can't create any shots at the rim.

Bucks making only 4 threes had nothing to do with their defense. Their offense was terrible throughout the whole series and that's the reason why they lost. I really don't understand how you can criticize their defense when their offense was all-time bad.

The Bucks' offense was always going to take a huge hit without Middleton. There was no getting around that no matter what. The least Bud could have done was not put another obstacle in the way of his own team by conceding a ton of wide-open threes when it was going to be hard enough already for them to win the series.

So you would rather not play Lopez and play Celtics game against them? They'd get destroyed in 5 then.

You basically criticize Bucks defense for not being able to carry them through -15.1 offensive performance. Do you realize that Bucks would have to play GOAT-level defense to make it work?

[toodles23]

How do you guys feel as far as Giannis being the best player in the league after this series? Still on board with it?

Tbh I find that all the contenders for that title have disappointed me to varying degrees in these playoffs.

It's between Giannis and Jokic for me, but I would lean Giannis because I still have questions about how Jokic would hold up defensively against the best teams.

Maybe this is an insane take, but I'm not convinced that healthy Lebron wouldn't still be the be the best 16 game player in the league.

[falcolombardi]

How do you guys feel as far as Giannis being the best player in the league after this series? Still on board with it?

Tbh I find that all the contenders for that title have disappointed me to varying degrees in these playoffs.

It’s pretty much between him and jokic, and both of them have a thing where a certain matchup makes him way worse on one side of the floor

I’d still have giannis, given the load he carried he was still great, and this Celtics team was ridiculously well equipped at defending him. Basically while obviously his defense I obviously isn’t as impactful as jokic’s offense, I think the drop in his offense isn’t as important as the drop to jokic’s defense. Beyond that I do think when you have The type of run giannis did last year, to take that title you have to have one of your own.

I expect bron to do something next years playoffs if their offseason goes well though lol

Le4thprime incoming

[LukaTheGOAT]

55% of butler’s offense is on ball this postseason. Highest play type by far is pick and roll ball handler at 40% of all possessions. He’s generating 1.2 ppp as a ball handler in pick and roll.

[falcolombardi]

How do you guys feel as far as Giannis being the best player in the league after this series? Still on board with it?

Tbh I find that all the contenders for that title have disappointed me to varying degrees in these playoffs.

It's between Giannis and Jokic for me, but I would lean Giannis because I still have questions about how Jokic would hold up defensively against the best teams.

Maybe this is an insane take, but I'm not convinced that healthy Lebron wouldn't still be the be the best 16 game player in the league.

lebron looked so well offensivelt but his health and defense mobility as well as lack of explosiveness at this age is a concern in playoffs setting

he would be a perfect offensive co-pilot tho

[Colbinii]

Better series: 2015 LeBron against Golden State vs 2022 Giannis against Boston?

[falcolombardi]

Better series: 2015 LeBron against Golden State vs 2022 Giannis against Boston?

giannis was better in defense but lebron playmaking was better

[sp6r=underrated]

So we've had three seasons played under unusual circumstances in NBA History: 1999, 2012, 2020. 1999/2012 were weird due to lockouts and 2020 was weird due to the bubble.

First, I decided to look at playoff wins for the 4 CF teams in the next two seasons.

2012: 77 combined playoff wins for BOS, OKC, SAS, MIA in 2013 and 2014.
1999: 43 combined playoff wins for POR, SAS, IND, NYK in 2000 and 2021. All 4 clubs would make the CF 1 in the next two seasons. Also note this was under the old 15 game playoff format resulting in a missing 4 wins. NYK/IND go awol in 2001.
2020: 24 combined playoff wins for DEN, LAL, BOS, MIA in 2021 and 2022. The maximum possible # of wins is 35 (ECF goes 7/wins title) and minimum is 28 (sweep then sweep loss in finals).

Second I decided to look at average SRS for the four finals teams in the next two regular seasons.

2012: 4.50
1999: 3.92
2020: 2.41

2012 again looks great. 1999 is pretty close. 2020 is markedly worse.

Third, I looked at the difference between the average SRS in the strange season compared to the next two seasons.

2012 CF Teams average SRS: 5.43. Difference: +0.93
1999 CF Teams average SRS: 4.52. Difference: +0.60
2020 CF Teams average SRS: 4.25. Difference: +1.84

Fourth, I decided to look at the average seeds in the CFs by year

2012: 2.25
2020: 3
1999: 3.25

Seeding rules aren't consistent but again pattern of 2012 being markedly better is clear.

Fifth, I decided to look at the teams SRS in the preceding two years before the strange season

2012: 4.41
1999: 1.69
2020: 1.23

Sixth I decided to look at playoff wins in the preceding two seasons for the CFs

2012: 54
1999: 26
2020: 24

Seven, Combined totals

Code: Select all

          Avg SRS strange season       Avg. SRS (2 yrs before/after)       Playoff Wins (2 yrs before/after) 
2012:        5.43                            4.46                                131
1999:        4.52                            2.81                                69
2020:        4.25                            1.82                                48

Overall my takeaway is the data strongly supports the idea of treating 2012 as distinct from 1999/2020. The teams won a lot of playoff games before and after the strange season. They had high SRS before and after.

The data is much more ambiguous for 1999/2020.

This could of course be a coincidence. Maybe 1999/2020 were just sandbagged in the surrounding seasons by weird events. Chronic LAL injuries/poor performance for Miami due to the brief off-season for 2020. Spurs tank job/IND/NYK aging out of contention for 1999. Or in the alternative 2012 was the natural middle point of an era were we expect minimal differences while 2020/1999 were transition years from one generation to another.

The alternative theory offered by critics of 1999/2020 also deserves a hearing based on the data.

[jalengreen]

updated championship odds before suns v mavs (source: bovada)

warriors +190

celtics +250

suns +300

heat +450

mavs +2500

[falcolombardi]

it feels boston should have better odds based on what we saw so far

[LukaTheGOAT]

How far away is Giannis' defense from Peak Levin Garnett in people's minds? Is he ahead to any of you?

[sp6r=underrated]

Another gross gambling ad during the game. Sports leagues should be ashamed of themselves.

[falcolombardi]

this is gonna be a long night for phoenix if even dinwiddie is cooking

[Fadeaway_J]

Another gross gambling ad during the game. Sports leagues should be ashamed of themselves.

Fortunately, they aren't capable of feeling shame.

[falcolombardi]

Another gross gambling ad during the game. Sports leagues should be ashamed of themselves.

Fortunately, they aren't capable of feeling shame.

legalized gambling in sports events is such a pandora box i am unsure how it is allowed

[sp6r=underrated]

Another gross gambling ad during the game. Sports leagues should be ashamed of themselves.

Fortunately, they aren't capable of feeling shame.

you like watching Charles Barkley, a man who by his own admission lost significant sums of money gambling, telling mostly working class viewers they should bet.

[sp6r=underrated]

Another gross gambling ad during the game. Sports leagues should be ashamed of themselves.

Fortunately, they aren't capable of feeling shame.

legalized gambling in sports events is such a pandora box i am unsure how it is allowed

Sadly we're going to have to wait for the damage to be done. We're going to see a pushback on legalized gambling once a lot of people have addicts in their family.

I always like to cite this article. Contrary to what the gambling industry says, gambling actually harms the economy.

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/08/a-good-way-to-wreck-a-local-economy-build-casinos/375691/

[Fadeaway_J]

Another gross gambling ad during the game. Sports leagues should be ashamed of themselves.

Fortunately, they aren't capable of feeling shame.

you like watching Charles Barkley, a man who by his own admission lost significant sums of money gambling, telling mostly working class viewers they should bet.

I'm partial to the ads on podcasts which are followed by a rapid-fire plug for a gambling addiction hotline.

[jalengreen]

What a fantastic start for the Mavs. Dinwiddie with a hot 13 points off of the bench. Meanwhile Booker, CP3, and Ayton are a combined 0-8

[sp6r=underrated]

this is gonna be a long night for phoenix if even dinwiddie is cooking

Big issue for Phoenix right now is on the offensive end. They'd be doing okay if their offense was performing at a normal level.