'17-'18 POY discussion

[Dr Positivity]

I know people are down on Lebron but 39-29 with Cavs supporting cast is arguably not less impressive than 39-29 with Pelicans supporting cast this year

[Doctor MJ]

I know people are down on Lebron but 39-29 with Cavs supporting cast is arguably not less impressive than 39-29 with Pelicans supporting cast this year

I don't have any issue with penalizing a guy for the damage he's done that's contributing to the situation he's in.

That statement is not so intransigent as it seems because playoff performances counts huge for me with a guy like LeBron, but I don't think LeBron really deserves any regular season MVP love at all.

[NinjaSheppard]

Derrick Rose really isn't helping my Butler isn't THAT valuable to Minnesota opinion. He is just murdering the team every second he is on the floor.

[E-Balla]

Derrick Rose really isn't helping my Butler isn't THAT valuable to Minnesota opinion. He is just murdering the team every second he is on the floor.

His 32 minutes isn't why they look bad without Butler when there's a 1000+ minute sample of them looking bad outside of Rose.

[E-Balla]

I know people are down on Lebron but 39-29 with Cavs supporting cast is arguably not less impressive than 39-29 with Pelicans supporting cast this year

Lebron's on court rating is -0.2. Davis' is +3.7. The performance of their team when they're on the floor isn't close Lebron just has a good bench and AD has a horrible bench.

[Missing Rings]

I know people are down on Lebron but 39-29 with Cavs supporting cast is arguably not less impressive than 39-29 with Pelicans supporting cast this year

Lebron's on court rating is -0.2. Davis' is +3.7. The performance of their team when they're on the floor isn't close Lebron just has a good bench and AD has a horrible bench.

Davis also has a vastly superior starting unit next to him.

[E-Balla]

I know people are down on Lebron but 39-29 with Cavs supporting cast is arguably not less impressive than 39-29 with Pelicans supporting cast this year

Lebron's on court rating is -0.2. Davis' is +3.7. The performance of their team when they're on the floor isn't close Lebron just has a good bench and AD has a horrible bench.

Davis also has a vastly superior starting unit next to him.

They're 12-8 since Cousins went down when AD plays. And the Cavs' problem is defense. Lebron is the laziest defender in the L.

[Missing Rings]

Lebron's on court rating is -0.2. Davis' is +3.7. The performance of their team when they're on the floor isn't close Lebron just has a good bench and AD has a horrible bench.

Davis also has a vastly superior starting unit next to him.

They're 12-8 since Cousins went down when AD plays. And the Cavs' problem is defense. Lebron is the laziest defender in the L.

Not sure what 12-8 has to do with anything. The Pelicans starters are still better than Clevelands.

I was just pointing out the mere difference in 4 points per 100 possessions, and most, if not all comes from the difference in caliber of teammates.

[bondom34]

Update:

MIN now 0 net rating in the last 9 since Butler's injury and the 25th defense.

Not counting the 1st 2 games against CHI and SAC, they're dead last defensively and -5.8.

[Dr Spaceman]

So I’m not exactly sure where to put this, maybe it belongs in the OT thread, but this seems to be the best place for NBA meta discussion.

I have a pet theory that 5 years from now we are going to have to do some serious revisionism on the 2018 NBA season. Something is very, very wrong in the current league metagame.

I think the Rockets are a legit all-time type of team. I think the Raptors and Jazz are good enough to be fringe contenders in any given NBA season. That said, none of these teams are legitimately good enough to be pulling off 23-2 stretches or other such nonsense that’s happening right now. The amount of win streaks and 90% win% stretches is a frightening anomaly; I don’t remember anything remotely similar happening in any other NBA season. You have (and I’m sorry about this) crushingly mediocre teams like Portland and New Orleans all of a sudden rattling off 9 wins in a row or 13-of-15 stretches and things like this. Again, something here doesn’t pass the smell test.

If I had to guess, I’d point to two factors.

1. The All-time tank race. Right now you have a full 1/3rd of the league’s teams openly trying to lose games and finish under 3p wins. Obviously this is an aberration.
2. The league-wide explosion in offense the last few years. So Zach Lowe mentioned on a podcast recently that since January league-wide offense has shot up by 3-4 points/100. This is related to the previous issue mentioned, but it’s also part of a long trend. The best offenses are getting better since 2015 at a rate far unorecedented in NBA history, and league-wide average offense is improving as well. We’re living through an offensive bubble right now, and as teams play faster and shoot more 3s, this is probably only going to continue.

I think wen you combine these two factors what you get is an erosion of the NBA “middle class”. There are very few teams that you can really just call “mediocre” anymore, especially after the all-star break. The good teams are suddenly playing like all-time greats while the bad teams are setting records for the longest ever losing streaks.

I don’t know what this means for evaluations of any player in particular. But i want to bring this up because I think it should impact our evaluations of this season.

[Mystical Apples]

So I’m not exactly sure where to put this, maybe it belongs in the OT thread, but this seems to be the best place for NBA meta discussion.

I have a pet theory that 5 years from now we are going to have to do some serious revisionism on the 2018 NBA season. Something is very, very wrong in the current league metagame.

I think the Rockets are a legit all-time type of team. I think the Raptors and Jazz are good enough to be fringe contenders in any given NBA season. That said, none of these teams are legitimately good enough to be pulling off 23-2 stretches or other such nonsense that’s happening right now. The amount of win streaks and 90% win% stretches is a frightening anomaly; I don’t remember anything remotely similar happening in any other NBA season. You have (and I’m sorry about this) crushingly mediocre teams like Portland and New Orleans all of a sudden rattling off 9 wins in a row or 13-of-15 stretches and things like this. Again, something here doesn’t pass the smell test.

If I had to guess, I’d point to two factors.

1. The All-time tank race. Right now you have a full 1/3rd of the league’s teams openly trying to lose games and finish under 3p wins. Obviously this is an aberration.
2. The league-wide explosion in offense the last few years. So Zach Lowe mentioned on a podcast recently that since January league-wide offense has shot up by 3-4 points/100. This is related to the previous issue mentioned, but it’s also part of a long trend. The best offenses are getting better since 2015 at a rate far unorecedented in NBA history, and league-wide average offense is improving as well. We’re living through an offensive bubble right now, and as teams play faster and shoot more 3s, this is probably only going to continue.

I think wen you combine these two factors what you get is an erosion of the NBA “middle class”. There are very few teams that you can really just call “mediocre” anymore, especially after the all-star break. The good teams are suddenly playing like all-time greats while the bad teams are setting records for the longest ever losing streaks.

I don’t know what this means for evaluations of any player in particular. But i want to bring this up because I think it should impact our evaluations of this season.

I'd add 2016 FA contracts weighing down certain teams and last summer's consolidation of talent pushing teams firmly into a PO camp or Tank Camp. That and the legitimate cap squeeze from the revised projections pushed quality players to already loaded teams.

Only 4 teams with PO aspirations will actually miss the PO's....Detroit, Charlotte, and probably Denver and the Clippers. Of the 4 2 have gross cap sheets, the Clippers lost CP and already moved on from Blake, and Denver signed Millsap who was hurt.

I think another issue are the teams who overpaid for yesterdays skill sets which left a dearth of handlers and individual creators. Go down the line and you'll see failing teams hamstrung by traditional C contracts that makes pivoting difficult when injuries hit. Detroit for example was helpless to replace Jackson. Hornets haven't had a respectable backup PG for 2 years but for whatever reason thought paying 38% of cap for 1-position C's was a great idea.....and then they acquired Hernangomez for good measure.

Knicks check. Orlando check. Denver is paying Plumlee, Millsap, and Faried. Clippers check and check. Lakers attached DAR to Mozgov. Atlanta signed Dwight and had to eat bad Plumlee's contract to dump him. Washington overpaid but fortunately Beale took a leap and had Satoransky's playmaking to replace Wall.

Oh and the easy arbitrage of stationary 3P shooting and defensive rebounding is no longer there. The best offensive teams have multiple handlers who can shoot off the dribble, off screen shooters, PnP bombers, and pound opponents with efficient transition and iso.

[E-Balla]

Davis also has a vastly superior starting unit next to him.

They're 12-8 since Cousins went down when AD plays. And the Cavs' problem is defense. Lebron is the laziest defender in the L.

Not sure what 12-8 has to do with anything. The Pelicans starters are still better than Clevelands.

I was just pointing out the mere difference in 4 points per 100 possessions, and most, if not all comes from the difference in caliber of teammates.

And I'm pointing out that it comes from Lebron being the worst defender in the L. The difference between Jrue Holiday and a bunch of scrubs and Lebron's starting cast doesn't explain the difference in performance at all. Is it so hard to admit Lebron hasn't been good?

[E-Balla]

So I’m not exactly sure where to put this, maybe it belongs in the OT thread, but this seems to be the best place for NBA meta discussion.

I have a pet theory that 5 years from now we are going to have to do some serious revisionism on the 2018 NBA season. Something is very, very wrong in the current league metagame.

I think the Rockets are a legit all-time type of team. I think the Raptors and Jazz are good enough to be fringe contenders in any given NBA season. That said, none of these teams are legitimately good enough to be pulling off 23-2 stretches or other such nonsense that’s happening right now. The amount of win streaks and 90% win% stretches is a frightening anomaly; I don’t remember anything remotely similar happening in any other NBA season. You have (and I’m sorry about this) crushingly mediocre teams like Portland and New Orleans all of a sudden rattling off 9 wins in a row or 13-of-15 stretches and things like this. Again, something here doesn’t pass the smell test.

If I had to guess, I’d point to two factors.

1. The All-time tank race. Right now you have a full 1/3rd of the league’s teams openly trying to lose games and finish under 3p wins. Obviously this is an aberration.
2. The league-wide explosion in offense the last few years. So Zach Lowe mentioned on a podcast recently that since January league-wide offense has shot up by 3-4 points/100. This is related to the previous issue mentioned, but it’s also part of a long trend. The best offenses are getting better since 2015 at a rate far unorecedented in NBA history, and league-wide average offense is improving as well. We’re living through an offensive bubble right now, and as teams play faster and shoot more 3s, this is probably only going to continue.

I think wen you combine these two factors what you get is an erosion of the NBA “middle class”. There are very few teams that you can really just call “mediocre” anymore, especially after the all-star break. The good teams are suddenly playing like all-time greats while the bad teams are setting records for the longest ever losing streaks.

I don’t know what this means for evaluations of any player in particular. But i want to bring this up because I think it should impact our evaluations of this season.

For me it means defense matters more in evaluating players. In a league where everyone and their mom can put up 20ppg on 58 TS% what exactly does 20ppg on 58 TS% mean? And I've been preaching this since last year. This current game is the bizzaro 2004 (which was when guys averaging 24ppg on 54 TS lead the league in points). Personally I hate it and think there needs to be a massive rule change to basically revert the game back to 2004. Let defenders defend so we don't have to see these 130-115 snorefests.

[Jim Naismith]

You have (and I’m sorry about this) crushingly mediocre teams like Portland and New Orleans all of a sudden rattling off 9 wins in a row or 13-of-15 stretches and things like this. Again, something here doesn’t pass the smell test.

New Orleans had some personnel changes, wouldn't you say? They were also playing bad or injured teams and they won most of those games, but they're now 6-4 in the last 10.

Portland is winning because Lillard had a hot streak, and also because they've been playing teams with worse records or injured players.

[Missing Rings]

They're 12-8 since Cousins went down when AD plays. And the Cavs' problem is defense. Lebron is the laziest defender in the L.

Not sure what 12-8 has to do with anything. The Pelicans starters are still better than Clevelands.

I was just pointing out the mere difference in 4 points per 100 possessions, and most, if not all comes from the difference in caliber of teammates.

And I'm pointing out that it comes from Lebron being the worst defender in the L. The difference between Jrue Holiday and a bunch of scrubs and Lebron's starting cast doesn't explain the difference in performance at all. Is it so hard to admit Lebron hasn't been good?

I feel like you are now talking about something different than when you started.

My original reply was to the post stating LeBron's on-court rating is -0.2 while Davis is at +3.7. You pointed out the bench being the biggest differences, while I am under the belief that the starters are actually a larger difference.

I am not going to deny LeBron hasn't been good on the defensive end as he has been lackluster on that end. At the same time, he isn't the only Cavalier who has been a dumpster fire on that end. The team as a whole misses more rotations than I have seen from any team in the NBA this season.

[Pillendreher]

[Portland is winning because Lillard had a hot streak, and also because they've been playing teams with worse records or injured players.

During their streak, their DRtG is 99.3 and their ORtG is 110.1. It's not like they're setting the world on fire offensively.

[Jim Naismith]

[Portland is winning because Lillard had a hot streak, and also because they've been playing teams with worse records or injured players.

During their streak, their DRtG is 99.3 and their ORtG is 110.1. It's not like they're setting the world on fire offensively.

Maybe not Portland as a whole. But Lillard is 31/4/6 @ .618 TS% during this 13-game stretch.

[Dr Spaceman]

You have (and I’m sorry about this) crushingly mediocre teams like Portland and New Orleans all of a sudden rattling off 9 wins in a row or 13-of-15 stretches and things like this. Again, something here doesn’t pass the smell test.

New Orleans had some personnel changes, wouldn't you say? They were also playing bad or injured teams and they won most of those games, but they're now 6-4 in the last 10.

Portland is winning because Lillard had a hot streak, and also because they've been playing teams with worse records or injured players.

You mean not having Cousins anymore? I do agree this has made themmuch better.

[Jim Naismith]

You have (and I’m sorry about this) crushingly mediocre teams like Portland and New Orleans all of a sudden rattling off 9 wins in a row or 13-of-15 stretches and things like this. Again, something here doesn’t pass the smell test.

New Orleans had some personnel changes, wouldn't you say? They were also playing bad or injured teams and they won most of those games, but they're now 6-4 in the last 10.

Portland is winning because Lillard had a hot streak, and also because they've been playing teams with worse records or injured players.

You mean not having Cousins anymore? I do agree this has made themmuch better.

Ball don't lie.

[bondom34]

Duncan had an interesting point on New Orleans that I think I agree on. Taking out Cousins hasn't hurt as much since Davis is so variable in his game. Hes prone to having games he totally disappears but then totally goes off for a few weeks. So.when Cousins is there and he disappears they're still dropping games to bad teams and when he goes off it doesn't really help as much. But without him they're likely losing when he's bad anyway and he carries them to wins.