2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[PaulieWal]

Eh, they were outscored in the finals by an average of 2ppg. That is very close. I don't think it is interesting at all to be honest.

Yeah, but the point is all of their Western Conf opponents had major injuries. I can't remember the last time a team had 3 straight rounds with the 1st or 2nd best player getting injured. So it is interesting to me and i was rooting for CP to get a ring this year (Sarver notwithstanding). He just doesn't have that playoff thing man (and again disappointing after his amazing G6 performance against the Pels).

This is were I'll push back hard.

The 1987 Lakers faced

DEN: -1.14 SRS
GSW: -2.54 SRS
SEA: 0.08 SRS

The 2013 Heat faced

MIL: -1.83
CHI: -0.02
IND: 3.34

That competition hits me as substantially weaker than Phoenix's 2021 competition.

And take a look at the competition Paul faced in 2015. Clippers won 56 games that year.
1st Round: Spurs 6.33, 55 wins
2nd Round: Rockets, 3.82

Year before Clippers won57 games
1st Round, Warriors: 5.15 SRS
2nd Round, Thunder, 6.66 SRS

Overall he's been a strong playoff performer. He is vulnerable to injury which is a real critique but he also got snakebit that in his prime he often times faced much tougher 1st round/2nd competition than his clubs deserved based on RS records.

Are you pushing back hard for the sake of arguing?

SRS be damned I much rather face the Clippers team with no Kawhi than that 2013 Pacers team with a good defense and Hibbert having an out of body run. Anyways, my point isn't about SRS, it's about injuries to the best players.

Yeah, he's had good showings but his collapses are also spectacular. When the number of epic collapses you have is the same as the number of good series you might have had...eh. I don't know how to even rank him, just that he's not a very good overall playoff performer.

[dcstanley]

i really dont know how dallas vs warriors will go

it feels like dallas shoulsnt be able to win but sfter this they may as well win the champiomship and i wouldnt be surprised

Dallas is a terrible matchup for the Warriors. I like their chances a lot.

[Peregrine01]

Has there ever been a meltdown anywhere close to this?

[Texas Chuck]

i really dont know how dallas vs warriors will go

it feels like dallas shoulsnt be able to win but sfter this they may as well win the champiomship and i wouldnt be surprised

Dallas is a terrible matchup for the Warriors. I like their chances a lot.

Dallas played GSW very well this year. Got blown out once, but took 3 out of 4.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Yeah, but the point is all of their Western Conf opponents had major injuries. I can't remember the last time a team had 3 straight rounds with the 1st or 2nd best player getting injured. So it is interesting to me and i was rooting for CP to get a ring this year (Sarver notwithstanding). He just doesn't have that playoff thing man (and again disappointing after his amazing G6 performance against the Pels).

This is were I'll push back hard.

The 1987 Lakers faced

DEN: -1.14 SRS
GSW: -2.54 SRS
SEA: 0.08 SRS

The 2013 Heat faced

MIL: -1.83
CHI: -0.02
IND: 3.34

That competition hits me as substantially weaker than Phoenix's 2021 competition.

And take a look at the competition Paul faced in 2015. Clippers won 56 games that year.
1st Round: Spurs 6.33, 55 wins
2nd Round: Rockets, 3.82

Year before Clippers won57 games
1st Round, Warriors: 5.15 SRS
2nd Round, Thunder, 6.66 SRS

Overall he's been a strong playoff performer. He is vulnerable to injury which is a real critique but he also got snakebit that in his prime he often times faced much tougher 1st round/2nd competition than his clubs deserved based on RS records.

Are you pushing back hard for the sake of arguing?

SRS be damned I much rather face the Clippers team with no Kawhi than that 2013 Pacers team with a good defense and Hibbert having an out of body run. Anyways, my point isn't about SRS, it's about injuries to the best players.

Yeah, he's had good showings but his collapses are also spectacular. When the number of epic collapses you have is the same as the number of good series you might have had...eh. I don't know how to even rank him, just that he's not a very good overall playoff performer.

Also substantially weaker than

2021 Lakers, who had them till AD got hurt and lebron being hobbled and basically talking like his career was over and he couldn’t walk anymore

Murray-less nuggets

Kawhi-less Clippers

That’s a stretch lol

[falcolombardi]

i really dont know how dallas vs warriors will go

it feels like dallas shoulsnt be able to win but sfter this they may as well win the champiomship and i wouldnt be surprised

Dallas is a terrible matchup for the Warriors. I like their chances a lot.

Dallas played GSW very well this year. Got blown out once, but took 3 out of 4.

how do their matchups even work? does dallas defend warrioes well or are they good st scoring against golden state defense?

[falcolombardi]

i really dont know how dallas vs warriors will go

it feels like dallas shoulsnt be able to win but sfter this they may as well win the champiomship and i wouldnt be surprised

Dallas is a terrible matchup for the Warriors. I like their chances a lot.

why are they a terrible matchup?

[jalengreen]

It isn't disrespectful. Those odds are set by degenerates wasting their money.

nah if vegas just went by what the masses are betting, then it would not be difficult to win money.

As far as I understand, Vegas does put out the line after their algorithms analyze who the favorite "should be" and then when the lines open, they do try to balance the line depending on how much money they are getting on each team to "balance it out" but it's not like if the betting masses just put all their money on the Kings to win the title they would be the betting favorites.

from what i've heard, it was more common for the lines to shift based on public betting in the past

but now with how accurate vegas is + the data they have that is not available to the public that makes it nigh impossible to *beat* vegas, the best longterm strategy is for them to trust their models moreso

the line movement that occurs due to public betting is usually due to the sharps - the rare gambler who actually makes $ off of it so sportsbook care more about what their picks are. but vegas isn't going to change their lines because of the degenerate money wasters

it is a bit different for futures though. i think for preseason championship odds, a lot more of it is based on public betting (you always see the cowboys in the NFL overrated by preseason odds, for example). but this late into the postseason, i think vegas' odds are reflective of their predictions

[parsnips33]

Now I have to root against Luka who is rocketing up my list of favorite players

But the CP3 hater in me is happy lol. Even if I wish we could have taken him out instead

Dallas could absolutely beat any of the remaining teams. I've said it before they can play way above their talent level and they've got a good group of guys around Luka

[MartinToVaught]

Yeah, but the point is all of their Western Conf opponents had major injuries. I can't remember the last time a team had 3 straight rounds with the 1st or 2nd best player getting injured. So it is interesting to me and i was rooting for CP to get a ring this year (Sarver notwithstanding). He just doesn't have that playoff thing man (and again disappointing after his amazing G6 performance against the Pels).

This is were I'll push back hard.

The 1987 Lakers faced

DEN: -1.14 SRS
GSW: -2.54 SRS
SEA: 0.08 SRS

The 2013 Heat faced

MIL: -1.83
CHI: -0.02
IND: 3.34

That competition hits me as substantially weaker than Phoenix's 2021 competition.

And take a look at the competition Paul faced in 2015. Clippers won 56 games that year.
1st Round: Spurs 6.33, 55 wins
2nd Round: Rockets, 3.82

Year before Clippers won57 games
1st Round, Warriors: 5.15 SRS
2nd Round, Thunder, 6.66 SRS

Overall he's been a strong playoff performer. He is vulnerable to injury which is a real critique but he also got snakebit that in his prime he often times faced much tougher 1st round/2nd competition than his clubs deserved based on RS records.

Are you pushing back hard for the sake of arguing?

SRS be damned I much rather face the Clippers team with no Kawhi than that 2013 Pacers team with a good defense and Hibbert having an out of body run. Anyways, my point isn't about SRS, it's about injuries to the best players.

Yeah, he's had good showings but his collapses are also spectacular. When the number of epic collapses you have is the same as the number of good series you might have had...eh. I don't know how to even rank him, just that he's not a very good overall playoff performer.

Also, we weren't just missing Kawhi. Ibaka was out, Zubac went down and Morris was hobbled all series. We were stuck giving minutes to washed-up Rondo and no-defense Cousins who were BBQ chicken whenever they checked into the game. And that series was STILL closer than it had any business being. This is the important context that gets ignored when you just throw around advanced stats like SRS willy-nilly.

CP3 is and has always been a playoff choker. One or two chokejobs could be blamed on bad luck or teammates, but when it happens every year across five different franchises and supporting casts with him as the lone common denominator, the excuses start to fall on deaf ears eventually. I've never understood why he's in some protected bubble where he can't get any blame, but other players who have accomplished way more than he has in their careers get roasted whenever they lose. He's not even likeable as a player or personality to justify all the hero worship.

[RCM88x]

Drive me nuts that these players stand right on the edge line like that, NBA really needs to do something about that next season.

[Texas Chuck]

Dallas is a terrible matchup for the Warriors. I like their chances a lot.

Dallas played GSW very well this year. Got blown out once, but took 3 out of 4.

how do their matchups even work? does dallas defend warrioes well or are they good st scoring against golden state defense?

They have Bullock and Dorian to throw at Curry and Poole which has been key to their playoff success against opposing perimeter scorers. And Draymond/Looney gives Dallas a place to hide Luka a bit. And Brunson can defend Klay. The matchups are pretty good for Dallas.

On the other side the Warriors have an elite defense and I suspect they will make it very difficult on Dallas, but if Luka is doing his thing, then the shooters are still going to get open looks and just have to hit them.

Warriors will be the favorite and should be. They've done this over and over again and Dallas is the upstart. But I think just like this series, anyone predicting them to steam roll Dallas hasn't been paying attention to Dallas in 2022. They good.

[MartinToVaught]

Has there ever been a meltdown anywhere close to this?

At least he's melting down against Luka this time, not Josh Smith, Corey Brewer and Pablo Prigioni.

[falcolombardi]

Dallas played GSW very well this year. Got blown out once, but took 3 out of 4.

how do their matchups even work? does dallas defend warrioes well or are they good st scoring against golden state defense?

They have Bullock and Dorian to throw at Curry and Poole which has been key to their playoff success against opposing perimeter scorers. And Draymond/Looney gives Dallas a place to hide Luka a bit. And Brunson can defend Klay. The matchups are pretty good for Dallas.

On the other side the Warriors have an elite defense and I suspect they will make it very difficult on Dallas, but if Luka is doing his thing, then the shooters are still going to get open looks and just have to hit them.

Warriors will be the favorite and should be. They've done this over and over again and Dallas is the upstart. But I think just like this series, anyone predicting them to steam roll Dallas hasn't been paying attention to Dallas in 2022. They good.

it will be interesting for sure

i have the theory that big ballhandlers who can score and pass (lebron, giannis, luka) are draymond kryptonite cause they are too big compared to guards and too fast compared to bigs

(when he guards a center he usually can use quickness amd lenght to mess their post ups, when he plays guards he uses lenght and mobility)

luka vs dray is gonna put it to test

[GSP]

Has there ever been a meltdown anywhere close to this?

Game 6 Clips Rockets 2015

Harden benched and Clips get rekt by Josh Smith and Corey Brewer outscored 40-15 in 4th quarter setting up game 7

Game 6 Spurs Rockets 2017

No Kawhi and Rockets lose by 40 at home. Elimination Game James one of if not the worst elimination game performer ever among stars goes 2/11 with 6 turnovers and fouls out getting sonned on both ends by Patty Mills

[sp6r=underrated]

Are you pushing back hard for the sake of arguing?

No the injury argument is a bad one. Lots of other clubs faced substantially weaker competition than the Suns did as the numbers showed.

SRS be damned I much rather face the Clippers team with no Kawhi than that 2013 Pacers team with a good defense and Hibbert having an out of body run.

Would you rather face 2013 Milwaukee in the first round or the Lakers with Lebron?
Would you rather face 2013 Bulls in the 2nd round or Nuggets sans Murray?

Seems overwhelmingly clear, even if I concede which I don't that LAC sans Kawhi is weaker than Indiana, Miami faced a weaker set of teams overall. 1987 LAL faced a laughably bad set of teams on the way to the finals.

And in the finals they lost by -2 ppg. If they were really just making the finals due to weak competition why weren't they curbstomped in the finals by healthy Milwaukee?

Anyways, my point isn't about SRS, it's about injuries to the best players.

First, Murray isn't the best player on Denver nor is Davis the best player on LAL. Second the reason people bring up injuries is to argue they faced an unusually weak set of team on the way to the finals. If it isn't true that Phoenix faced unusually weak team than the injuries are a red herring.

Yeah, he's had good showings but his collapses are also spectacular.

I've never understood the theory that it is worse to lose a series in 7 that you led 2-0 rather than series you were behind by 2-0. It doesn't matter. What matter is whether you are losing to teams that are weaker than your team.

Positive number indicates his team has a higher SRS/lower opposite
2008: +0.36 basically a coin toss on paper that went 7.
2009: -1.71, lost in 5
2011: -4.77
2012: -4.46
2013: +2.11
2014: +0.61
2015: +2.98, bad loss to rockets
2016: +3.15, probably worst upset
2017: +0.42, 7 games, coin toss series
2018: +2.42, 7 games, should have won
2019: -1.46,
2020: -.8, lost in 7
2021: +0.10

Overall, I see 3-4 bad upset in 14 years. That isn't a bad track record. Next you look at how he's performed in those series and overall he's played very very well.

When the number of epic collapses you have is the same as the number of good series you might have had...eh. I don't know how to even rank him, just that he's not a very good overall playoff performer.

Most of his series play are extremely strong. And he's basically in unprecedented territory here. John Stockton is the only other little guard who was relevent at his age

[Peregrine01]

Has there ever been a meltdown anywhere close to this?

Game 6 Clips Rockets 2015

Harden benched and Clips get rekt by Josh Smith and Corey Brewer outscored 40-15 in 4th quarter setting up game 7

Game 6 Spurs Rockets 2017

No Kawhi and Rockets lose by 40 at home. Elimination Game James one of if not the worst elimination game performer ever among stars goes 2/11 with 6 turnovers and fouls out getting sonned on both ends by Patty Mills

Yeah. But this is the 1st seed that won 64 games and many thought were the clear best team in the league. And the game was decided in the freakin 1st quarter.

[sp6r=underrated]

but now with how accurate vegas is + the data they have that is not available to the public that makes it nigh impossible to *beat* vegas,

I agree which is why I think legalized sportsbetting should probably be outlawed or strictly regulated:

1. limits on how much you can bet with limits set based on personal information. Poor people have much lower caps to prevent them from wasting their limited funds.
2. Liability for casinos that serve addicts
3. bans on advertising ala cigarette companies

[jalengreen]

Has there ever been a meltdown anywhere close to this?

i think all things considered (expectations, getting blown out from the start, supposed to be the best team in the league) it's the worst game 7 performance ever.

[jalengreen]

but now with how accurate vegas is + the data they have that is not available to the public that makes it nigh impossible to *beat* vegas,

I agree which is why I think legalized sportsbetting should probably be outlawed or strictly regulated:

1. limits on how much you can bet with limits set based on personal information. Poor people have much lower caps to prevent them from wasting their limited funds.
2. Liability for casinos that serve addicts
3. bans on advertising ala cigarette companies

the blatant advertising that plagues all sports coverage is definitely really bad and needs to be addressed. but doubtful.