2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[sp6r=underrated]

but now with how accurate vegas is + the data they have that is not available to the public that makes it nigh impossible to *beat* vegas,

I agree which is why I think legalized sportsbetting should probably be outlawed or strictly regulated:

1. limits on how much you can bet with limits set based on personal information. Poor people have much lower caps to prevent them from wasting their limited funds.
2. Liability for casinos that serve addicts
3. bans on advertising ala cigarette companies

the blatant advertising that plagues all sports coverage is definitely really bad and needs to be addressed. but doubtful.

Yup it is gross, when I watch league pass it is all gambling ads. And advertising is effective. The reason these sportsbooks give people so much money for signing up is they know people will quickly start betting with their own money

[eminence]

Two Draymond games for the Mavs/Warriors this season:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202201050DAL.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202201250GSW.html

Game 1 was close through 3 and the GS offense went to crap in the 4th.

Game 2 Was pretty much controlled by GS throughout.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Are you pushing back hard for the sake of arguing?

No the injury argument is a bad one. Lots of other clubs faced substantially weaker competition than the Suns did as the numbers showed.

SRS be damned I much rather face the Clippers team with no Kawhi than that 2013 Pacers team with a good defense and Hibbert having an out of body run.

Would you rather face 2013 Milwaukee in the first round or the Lakers with Lebron?
Would you rather face 2013 Bulls in the 2nd round or Nuggets sans Murray?

Seems overwhelmingly clear, even if I concede which I don't that LAC sans Kawhi is weaker than Indiana, Miami faced a weaker set of teams overall. 1987 LAL faced a laughably bad set of teams on the way to the finals.

And in the finals they lost by -2 ppg. If they were really just making the finals due to weak competition why weren't they curbstomped in the finals by healthy Milwaukee?

Anyways, my point isn't about SRS, it's about injuries to the best players.

First, Murray isn't the best player on Denver nor is Davis the best player on LAL. Second the reason people bring up injuries is to argue they faced an unusually weak set of team on the way to the finals. If it isn't true that Phoenix faced unusually weak team than the injuries are a red herring.

Yeah, he's had good showings but his collapses are also spectacular.

I've never understood the theory that it is worse to lose a series in 7 that you led 2-0 rather than series you were behind by 2-0. It doesn't matter. What matter is whether you are losing to teams that are weaker than your team.

Positive number indicates his team has a higher SRS/lower opposite
2008: +0.36 basically a coin toss on paper that went 7.
2009: -1.71, lost in 5
2011: -4.77
2012: -4.46
2013: +2.11
2014: +0.61
2015: +2.98, bad loss to rockets
2016: +3.15, probably worst upset
2017: +0.42, 7 games, coin toss series
2018: +2.42, 7 games, should have won
2019: -1.46,
2020: -.8, lost in 7
2021: +0.10

Overall, I see 3-4 bad upset in 14 years. That isn't a bad track record. Next you look at how he's performed in those series and overall he's played very very well.

When the number of epic collapses you have is the same as the number of good series you might have had...eh. I don't know how to even rank him, just that he's not a very good overall playoff performer.

Most of his series play are extremely strong. And he's basically in unprecedented territory here. John Stockton is the only other little guard who was relevent at his age

Bron was hurt lol, he was literally going like “I’ll never Ben the same” and there were times he wasn’t able to get any lift, there was one moment live I remember he literally didn’t get up high enough to dunk it lol

[letskissbro]

"Heliocentrism" >>>>>>> motion offenses

[parsnips33]

Wonder how much Draymond on Luka we will see. That to me is the most exciting matchup

[Statlanta]

"Heliocentrism" >>>>>>> motion offenses

I hope so I've been kinda soured on the prevailing ideas being only team ball wins/ISO ball never works for the last 8 years(Spurs/Warriors).

[BIGJ1ER]

those 69 dribbles into throwing himself in the defender chest with no call is a textbook example to show kids about the danger of flashy over dribblinh without purpose

I actually don't think Curry has lost that much of a step from last year but he's just playing that much stupider.

is it too early to say this is post prime curry? his impact numbers are still there, but his shot seems to have taken a real step down (may be just a really odd down year) and for whatever reason his 1vs1 game is not that threatening anymore

Catching up on this thread from the past couple days, and while Steph's shooting slump seems to be real for this season, I think the isolation comments are untrue. Steph was a top 5 player in PPP in isolation this seasion, as he has been pretty much every year since 14 (lower volume than some of the absolute best iso players this year though tbf). I tend to think he's quite a mental based player, and his shooting slump has him hesitating on alot of looks that he'd normally fire without hesitation, windows that he's not taking now are affecting the shots he's getting off imo.

[parsnips33]

"Heliocentrism" >>>>>>> motion offenses

I hope so I've been kinda soured on the prevailing ideas being only team ball wins/ISO ball never works for the last 8 years(Spurs/Warriors).

If you are Lebron/Luka level in terms of size, scoring, and vision, yes. Otherwise, I think it's still beneficial to learn how to play within a more egalitarian offense

[CKRT]

Has there ever been a meltdown anywhere close to this?

Game 6 Spurs Rockets 2017

No Kawhi and Rockets lose by 40 at home. Elimination Game James one of if not the worst elimination game performer ever among stars goes 2/11 with 6 turnovers and fouls out getting sonned on both ends by Patty Mills

Harden has had plenty of bad games that you could point to, but a game that he played through a concussion with ain’t it.

[sp6r=underrated]

"Heliocentrism" >>>>>>> motion offenses

The vast majority of teams do not have a Luka so the vast majority of teams would be better off using motion.

[falcolombardi]

"Heliocentrism" >>>>>>> motion offenses

The vast majority of teams do not have a Luka so the vast majority of teams would be better off using motion.

i think we have to differentiate between heliocentrism levels first, the level of "heliocentrism" prime harden or luka do is fairly different than the level of heliocentrism that someone like tatum or even butler do

few players are good enough to do the former in a playoffs setting but the latter is kind of the norm even in relatively egalitarian offenses like heat

second i would be unsure why you think mpst teams would be better off in a motion offense? what is the evidence for that?

teams that have won playing like that or without some kind of "helio" were really rare amd full of old or future hofers and talented players (2014 spurs)
won with their defense
or basically cheat and had 1 or 2 all time greats alongside a dpoy (warriors)

i am not saying a motion offense is worse, but i dont see what makes it better than other approaches?

people try to speak a style (motion offense, off ball play, superstar ball, offense first approach, defense first approach) being superior into existence because they like it more

when in practice all kinds of approaches work and win rings with the right talent: whether that talent is a loaded squad of excelent players (89 pistons) or a superstar duo + specialists (2020 lakers) or a beatiful game passing team (2014 spurs) or one supertar "carrying" a defensive team (2011 mavs) all of them can work

[sp6r=underrated]

"Heliocentrism" >>>>>>> motion offenses

The vast majority of teams do not have a Luka so the vast majority of teams would be better off using motion.

i think we have to differentiate between heliocentrism levels first, the level of "heliocentrism" prime harden or luka do is fairly different than the level of heliocentrism that someone like tatum or even butler do

few players are good enough to do the former in a playoffs setting but the latter is kind of the norm even in relatively egalitarian offenses like heat

second i would be unsure why you think mpst teams would be better off in a motion offense? what is the evidence for that?

teams that have won playing like that or without some kind of "helio" were really rare amd full of old or future hofers and talented players (2014 spurs)
won with their defense
or basically cheat and had 1 or 2 all time greats alongside a dpoy (warriors)

i am not saying a motion offense is worse, but i dont see what makes it better than other approaches?

Fair to say you caught me in hyperbole I was just pushing back on using 1 game to say every team should run the superstar model. I've seen too many teams destroy themselves over the years trying to force 1 guy to have a dominant role scoring rather than having multiple scorers and a more diversified offense.

[itsxtray]

What was the suns srs this year? I heard all year that they didn't actually play like a 64 win team but were just incredibly clutch which made their record look better than their actual level of play.

[eminence]

What was the suns srs this year? I heard all year that they didn't actually play like a 64 win team but were just incredibly clutch which made their record look better than their actual level of play.

+6.94 very slightly behind the Celtics. Would give you an expected wins of 59.

So some truth to their win total maybe overstating their strength, but still the strongest RS team this year.

[falcolombardi]

What was the suns srs this year? I heard all year that they didn't actually play like a 64 win team but were just incredibly clutch which made their record look better than their actual level of play.

it was around 7 which is around average for a championship team i think and roughly tied with celtics as best in the league

but if i am not mistaken they were higher before they locked the first seed amd essentially coasted for the last month of the season

[Peregrine01]

With Luka, he feels even stronger than a guy like Giannis is in the paint. Ayton couldn't even stop him from getting backed down. That lower body strength and base is something that really gets overlooked when analyzing his game. It's what allows him to carry defenders all the way to the rim forcing the defense to collapse.

[GSP]

Two Draymond games for the Mavs/Warriors this season:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202201050DAL.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202201250GSW.html

Game 1 was close through 3 and the GS offense went to crap in the 4th.

Game 2 Was pretty much controlled by GS throughout.

Both games were pre Kp for Dinwiddie/Bertans trade. Mavs were barely above .500 for alot of that pre trade stretch

and the one game of the 2 Kp played was the blowout for Gs as Kp is a liability against spread out teams. OFC no Klay in Mavs blowout win too. Largely both games prolly dont mean too much

[eminence]

Two Draymond games for the Mavs/Warriors this season:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202201050DAL.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202201250GSW.html

Game 1 was close through 3 and the GS offense went to crap in the 4th.

Game 2 Was pretty much controlled by GS throughout.

Both games were pre Kp for Dinwiddie/Bertans trade. Mavs were barely above .500 for alot of that pre trade stretch

and the one game of the 2 Kp played was the blowout for Gs as Kp is a liability against spread out teams. OFC no Klay in Mavs blowout win too. Largely both games prolly dont mean too much

Yup yup.

Don't think the RS matches between the two will be overly predictive.

[Doctor MJ]

Two Draymond games for the Mavs/Warriors this season:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202201050DAL.html

https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202201250GSW.html

Game 1 was close through 3 and the GS offense went to crap in the 4th.

Game 2 Was pretty much controlled by GS throughout.

Yup, I'll definitely be favoring Golden State and Boston to get to the finals just like I did after the first round.

I am critical of how GS played in the last series, but it's a sloppiness criticism not a "low ceiling" criticism. Luka and Dallas just accomplished something major...but beating GS will mean accomplishing another major thing.

One thing that will be interesting: The Phx-Dal series very much felt like the Mavs figured out the Suns, and that makes sense given Doncic felling like a figure-outer and CP3 & Monty teams not so much...but Kerr's Warriors also figure stuff out. There's one big series of course where the other team felt like they figured the Warriors out ('16 Cavs), but in general, Kerr and his staff are not afraid to try new things and the players are encouraged to take risks.

It's not necessarily clear that this next series will turn into the "chess match" the previous one was, but if it does, it will be interesting see who seems to better figure out the other side.

I do think the Celtics have been the best team in the playoffs in each of the first two round and they feel like they've earned the right to be the favorite from this point forward. But I do think the Warriors have the highest ceiling so it could go another way.

I like the Heat but struggle to see them actually beating all comers. If they do, man, Jimmy Butler is going to be such a legend even if it's Bam who is the MVP out there.

And the Mavs, hey, while I'm picking against them, I think we're all wonder just how dominant Luka can become - not just in the future, but right now. If they win the title, it will be the official announcement of a new GOAT candidate.

[Doctor MJ]

What was the suns srs this year? I heard all year that they didn't actually play like a 64 win team but were just incredibly clutch which made their record look better than their actual level of play.

+6.94 very slightly behind the Celtics. Would give you an expected wins of 59.

So some truth to their win total maybe overstating their strength, but still the strongest RS team this year.

One of the things that I think is just hard for any of us to get their head around is the fact Paul now has a history for years of

a) being the most reliably effective clutch performer in the game

and

b) being the most likely to get upset in the playoffs

It seems like a contradiction based on how similarly we talk about crunch time and post-season play, but they aren't the same thing.