2020-21 NBA Season Discussion

[Doctor MJ]

I just don't know why it took humiliating post-season upsets and a near defeat by a crippled Nets team for it to happen.

Don't want to re-litigate this again, but its worth noting Giannis was great in almost every series the Bucks have lost in his tenure. I get the best player is easy to blame, but we don't do this with KG or Dirk or Kobe when they've played well but their teammates let them down. Middleton having terrible offensive series shouldn't be humiliating for Giannis.

Hmm. So first off: I think discussing Giannis' previous two post-seasons is relevant when discussing Giannis' current post-season. We're not talking about someone from the past here. We're talking about a guy right now, and I'm only mentioning the stuff that was clearly on our minds going into these playoffs.

Second, I responded specifically about Crowder after you talked about him specifically as someone who couldn't guard Giannis, when he's literally the guy who guarded Giannis the last time Giannis' team lost a series. It's just natural to bring that up, and it's a bit strange to me that you cut that out of your response here Chuck. I know you well enough to know that you're not trying to manipulate the argument, but we're clearly thinking about Crowder very differently.

Third, in that series, Giannis scored meh volume on meh efficiency while Middleton was the team's lead scorer and the one that led the team to their sole victory. This is the obvious series to focus on, and you either not thinking of it, or totally misremembering it.

None of this is to say that Giannis hasn't looked like a Greek God these last two games. He looks f-ing unreal. The question is what's changed because the issue isn't Crowder-specific.

What I'll definitely say is that those who stopped Giannis before didn't rely simply on the primary defenders (Kawhi & Crowder) alone to stop Giannis. Having capable secondary defenders in the paint was essential to the strategy. It's within the realm of possibility that the problem in the end has a lot to do with Ayton not having enough savvy to do a Gasol impression. It's also possible that Game 4 sees an adaptation to pack the paint like nobody's business that ends up forcing the Bucks to win from the perimeter.

But I think it's also possible we're seeing Giannis figure something out about how to aggressively cutting to the interior with or without the ball.

[Texas Chuck]

Third, in that series, Giannis scored meh volume on meh efficiency while Middleton was the team's lead scorer and the one that led the team to their sole victory. This is the obvious series to focus on, and you either not thinking of it, or totally misremembering it.

I disagree this is the only series to focus on not that I'm ignoring it, misremembering it, or intentionally discarding to support my position and frankly I don't love the implication that's how I operate as I feel like I have too long a history here of not trying to twist things to support my agenda.

I stated exactly what I meant that in the majority of series the Bucks have lost during the Giannis era, he's played really well. Not he's never had a bad series or a bad game. But the narrative has been can't win with Giannis and I just disagree wholeheartedly with that premise.

And while yes Crowder did defend him some last year, they also used Butler and Bam and those are also much better help defenders with a better scheme than Phoenix has showed to date. I stand by my position that Crowder isn't well equipped to go for 36 minutes against Giannis. I also understand he's clearly the best option for Phoenix and was complimentary of his effort and fight even if overmatched. Much like I thought Maxi Kleber in the bubble played his ever loving tail off as the only real option for Dallas against Kawhi even as for the most part he got physically overwhelmed and trucked. And unlike Jae he couldn't keep his legs to make open shots to help the offense at the other end. But someone has to take that job of fighting against the unstoppable star. Not any kind of knock on Crowder whom I love as a player and competitor.

[falcolombardi]

i think there are many factors with bucks

one is that they were a 40+ wins team before budenholzer went full h3liocentric around giannis and made the bucks a 60+ wins team that only got stopped by the all-defense raptors

with that kind of improvement it was no surprised the bucks didnt try fixing what was not broken in 2020 until the weakness of giannis as a pointguatd were Exploded again. by then it was clear it was a flawed approach that could be exploited

so bucks improved their team like they could and brought a guard (jrue)to direct the offense and went through growing Pains and had a natural learning Curve in the playoffs

is easy to say "why was not giannis doing this from the start" but that implies that what he is doing is easy or simple which it really is not
the more offball game giannis is clicking with right now is not as simple "just play off ball/in the paint" but requires a lotnof smart reads, positioning, passing. timing

just like jordan didnt find the balance between shooting and playmaking perfectly from the start, giannis had his own learning curve

[Doctor MJ]

Third, in that series, Giannis scored meh volume on meh efficiency while Middleton was the team's lead scorer and the one that led the team to their sole victory. This is the obvious series to focus on, and you either not thinking of it, or totally misremembering it.

I disagree this is the only series to focus on not that I'm ignoring it, misremembering it, or intentionally discarding to support my position and frankly I don't love the implication that's how I operate as I feel like I have too long a history here of not trying to twist things to support my agenda.

I stated exactly what I meant that in the majority of series the Bucks have lost during the Giannis era, he's played really well. Not he's never had a bad series or a bad game. But the narrative has been can't win with Giannis and I just disagree wholeheartedly with that premise.

And while yes Crowder did defend him some last year, they also used Butler and Bam and those are also much better help defenders with a better scheme than Phoenix has showed to date. I stand by my position that Crowder isn't well equipped to go for 36 minutes against Giannis. I also understand he's clearly the best option for Phoenix and was complimentary of his effort and fight even if overmatched. Much like I thought Maxi Kleber in the bubble played his ever loving tail off as the only real option for Dallas against Kawhi even as for the most part he got physically overwhelmed and trucked. And unlike Jae he couldn't keep his legs to make open shots to help the offense at the other end. But someone has to take that job of fighting against the unstoppable star. Not any kind of knock on Crowder whom I love as a player and competitor.

Not the only series to focus on, just the one I'd expect we all used as the touchstone for reasons stated.

Re: "Crowder did defense him some last year". I mean, he was the main defender on Giannis. No if, ends, or buts. Not saying he was the only one, and I specifically talked about how he was not out there by his lonesome, but as in most series, there was a primary defender on Giannis, and in this case it was Crowder.

I'm not trying to quibble here or defender Crowder's honor. More than anything else, it's eye-opening to see Giannis go up against the same guy who was his main defender the last time he failed, and to see him not seem remotely bothered. Things have changed. The question is what those things specifically are.

[Doctor MJ]

Anyone else loves the new version of Giannis who posts up and attack the rim off-ball? No more point-forward stupid startegy, let Khris and Jrue handle the ball and do bigman things.

I said that Bucks can adjust and they did. Their defense looked lethal this night and I hope they won't stop and keep doing their job.

Yeah, it kinda looks like exactly what we were hoping for. I'm just confused why we're getting it only now if it was something the Bucks could just decide to do.

I expect Game 4 to be telling. The Suns have to make adjustments. How much will those adjustments accomplish? If they can't do much, the Suns are in trouble.

[Doctor MJ]

Monty benching Booker for the 4th is fascinating to me. Booker was missing shots, but it wasn't just that. He was settling a lot, was worse than normal on defense. So this is either an injury they are trying to hide or Monty realized Booker wasn't engaged tonight for whatever reason and this is a motivational ploy.

Booker seems like the wrong guy for tough love. Seems much more like a guy who implodes rather than explodes and comes out and tries to be the hero instead of letting Paul get him good looks. But Monty knows his guy way better than me and he's pushed all the right buttons to this point.

But that fascinated me. Because he clearly wasn't conceding the game, just going without a main guy.

And the Bucks seemed content to let Ayton get his touches/shots early and didn't once overreact to that and then really worked him at the other end. Ayton's gotten a ton of love this playoffs and most of it deserved. Will be interesting to me as well to see how he adjusts and comes back especially defensively where he just can't deal with Giannis really at all. Too slow of foot and thought.

Yeah, it's a big deal. If Booker comes out in Game 4 on fire and the Suns go up 3-1, it's going to add to the Monty-legend highlight reel that also includes the Ayton heart-to-heart.

But man, what if it doesn't go that way? Could become toxic. This is another one of these things where you shouldn't consider it unless you know your players' personalities really, really well.

[falcolombardi]

somethingh interesting is that the bucks have made it all the way here with weak shooting from the 3 point line

if the bucks shooters get hot, giannis remains dominant and jrue and middleton play well i ser the bucks winning

if one of those factors doesnt happen i think suns will close the deal as they are a very consistent team that rarely plays bad

[parsnips33]

Please please please let us see a Giannis vs AD playoff series at some point in the future

[Outside]

I feel like we're getting a sizeable dose of overreaction theater here.

The Suns were awful. Every series so far, they've had at least one stinker. I won't be surprised if they have another one. In game 3, they were 9/31 on threes (.290%) and 11/16 on FTs (.688%). Booker was bad. Chris Paul shot well, but his volume was low, and he had four turnovers after having six in game 2. Their defense was poor and needs to adjust to Giannis setting up in the post as opposed to being point forward.

Despite all that, Phoenix still leads 2-1. In game 2, Phoenix played well and made Giannis' 40-10 irrelevant. In game 3, Phoenix played poorly, and now Giannis getting 40-10 is a unstoppable force of nature that will carry the Bucks to four straight wins. The reality is probably somewhere in between. Giannis is really really good and can carry his team to win games. We'll find out if it's enough to win the series.

Each game in a series is its own thing. Some trends build over a series, but the much of the flow changes from game to game. I expect Booker and Paul to be better. I expect the Suns to adjust to what Giannis is doing, both by how they defend Giannis and how they defend Holiday and Middleton's entry passes.

I reamed Bud before for his coaching (or lack of it), but I have to give him credit for adjusting and putting Giannis in this new role. Yes, we could say about damn time and he should've done it ages ago, but credit is due. The chess match of adjustments continues. We'll see how Monty responds, and then how (if) Bud responds to that.

[Doctor MJ]

I feel like we're getting a sizeable dose of overreaction theater here.

The Suns were awful. Every series so far, they've had at least one stinker. I won't be surprised if they have another one. In game 3, they were 9/31 on threes (.290%) and 11/16 on FTs (.688%). Booker was bad. Chris Paul shot well, but his volume was low, and he had four turnovers after having six in game 2. Their defense was poor and needs to adjust to Giannis setting up in the post as opposed to being point forward.

Despite all that, Phoenix still leads 2-1. In game 2, Phoenix played well and made Giannis' 40-10 irrelevant. In game 3, Phoenix played poorly, and now Giannis getting 40-10 is a unstoppable force of nature that will carry the Bucks to four straight wins. The reality is probably somewhere in between. Giannis is really really good and can carry his team to win games. We'll find out if it's enough to win the series.

Each game in a series is its own thing. Some trends build over a series, but the much of the flow changes from game to game. I expect Booker and Paul to be better. I expect the Suns to adjust to what Giannis is doing, both by how they defend Giannis and how they defend Holiday and Middleton's entry passes.

I reamed Bud before for his coaching (or lack of it), but I have to give him credit for adjusting and putting Giannis in this new role. Yes, we could say about damn time and he should've done it ages ago, but credit is due. The chess match of adjustments continues. We'll see how Monty responds, and then how (if) Bud responds to that.

So here's the thing, if you look at Shot Quality's assessment of Game 2, based on the shots each team took, the Bucks would win that game 88% of the time.

And in Game 3? Says the exact same thing: 88%.

The Suns won that Game 2 because they were unusually hot and the Bucks were unusually cold.

All this to say that while it's wise not to overreact to a team up 2-0 losing a game on the road, the outlying game of this series is not Game 3, it's Game 1 (where, ftr, Shot Quality said that the Suns would win 77% of the time). And that's disturbing for the Suns because Giannis clearly has been different these past two games.

All this to say that I think frankly the Suns were the ones more in need of an adjustment after Game 2 than the Bucks were, and while I could see the logic of not putting all your cards on the table when you're on the road and have some cushion, I hope for their sake they've got something new for Game 4.

[AussieBuck]

I just don't know why it took humiliating post-season upsets and a near defeat by a crippled Nets team for it to happen.

Don't want to re-litigate this again, but its worth noting Giannis was great in almost every series the Bucks have lost in his tenure. I get the best player is easy to blame, but we don't do this with KG or Dirk or Kobe when they've played well but their teammates let them down. Middleton having terrible offensive series shouldn't be humiliating for Giannis.

Hmm. So first off: I think discussing Giannis' previous two post-seasons is relevant when discussing Giannis' current post-season. We're not talking about someone from the past here. We're talking about a guy right now, and I'm only mentioning the stuff that was clearly on our minds going into these playoffs.

Second, I responded specifically about Crowder after you talked about him specifically as someone who couldn't guard Giannis, when he's literally the guy who guarded Giannis the last time Giannis' team lost a series. It's just natural to bring that up, and it's a bit strange to me that you cut that out of your response here Chuck. I know you well enough to know that you're not trying to manipulate the argument, but we're clearly thinking about Crowder very differently.

Third, in that series, Giannis scored meh volume on meh efficiency while Middleton was the team's lead scorer and the one that led the team to their sole victory. This is the obvious series to focus on, and you either not thinking of it, or totally misremembering it.

None of this is to say that Giannis hasn't looked like a Greek God these last two games. He looks f-ing unreal. The question is what's changed because the issue isn't Crowder-specific.

What I'll definitely say is that those who stopped Giannis before didn't rely simply on the primary defenders (Kawhi & Crowder) alone to stop Giannis. Having capable secondary defenders in the paint was essential to the strategy. It's within the realm of possibility that the problem in the end has a lot to do with Ayton not having enough savvy to do a Gasol impression. It's also possible that Game 4 sees an adaptation to pack the paint like nobody's business that ends up forcing the Bucks to win from the perimeter.

But I think it's also possible we're seeing Giannis figure something out about how to aggressively cutting to the interior with or without the ball.

The 2020 Miami bubble series started and ended for Giannis with ankle injuries. George Hill was the guy who saved the day when Bledsoe turned into a playoff pumpkin but in the bubble his mind was elsewhere. We lost his ability to properly set the table so things went back to Giannis trying to create from beyond the three point line with a bad ankle against the team that had the best players and scheme to stop him when he started up high. Perfect storm, really, not that I'm saying we would have been fine if we got past Miami, the 2020 team was broken.

The bolded is spot on, the best option to beat the Bucks is always to pack the paint and not let Giannis beat you. I don't expect the Suns to keep letting him be guarded with one guy with only late help, it's suicide.

[falcolombardi]

this series could be 2-1 bucks if a 20-40 from 3 hot shooting night by Phoenix and a cold shooting by both, jrue and middleton had not coincided

that game being so close despite both of those thinghs showed how much of a problem giannis was gonna be this series

suns throughly outplayed bucks in game 1 with only bucks one hot shooting keeping it close and bucks dominated game 3. good/bad shooting luck at the right/wrong time is by far the biggest difference maker right now in this series

if giannis is gonna dominate inside all series and shooting splits break roughly evenly from here on out i would expect bucks to have a great chance or even win.... but bucks shooting has underperformed all playoffs long so i suspect they may just not be as good as their regular season numbers once in a play off setting

so i still would go bucks

[Dr Positivity]

I think the Suns are concentrating on stopping the other Bucks and living with Giannis going for 30-40. However I'm not sure I like the strategy especially with players like Tucker out there. I would take my chances with Bucks role players being open especially since they're usually tired due to high defensive and rebounding intensity.

Booker is the key man in the series as he could either win Finals MVP from this point or he could go on a mini Harrison Barnes type run and shoot the Suns out of it.

[MartinToVaught]

But I hope what Blake Griffin did to Giannis, on volume. On absolutely massive freaking volume guarding him, gets fully appreciated now.

Absolutely the anchor for Brooklyn. No scheme exists without him.

I've been trying to convince people to appreciate Blake for a decade now and found few takers. It sucks how underrated he always is.

[AussieBuck]

Griffin did indeed stop Giannis from going off one on one, he also inexplicably was allowed to shove Giannis while in the air every time he attempted a shot in the paint. Was absolutely bizarre, he wasn't even disguising it particularly well.

[Jaivl]

Griffin did indeed stop Giannis from going off one on one, he also inexplicably was allowed to shove Giannis while in the air every time he attempted a shot in the paint. Was absolutely bizarre, he wasn't even disguising it particularly well.

I mean, Griffin got preferential treatment by the refs since the very moment he entered the league. His number of uncalled offensive-foul elbows is probably in the hundreds.

[eminence]

Simmons truly on the block now, I'll be interested to see where he ends up. I think there's still a superstar in there somewhere if they can get him right mentally and surround him with the right pieces.

[falcolombardi]

is interesting to compare giannis with simmons and are how much better one is despite relatively similar tools and weaknesses. giannis having a edge physically but simmons being probably a better ballhandler

is not even like simmons is a low "basketball IQ" player either

shows how important mentality is in the impact a player has

[Doctor MJ]

is interesting to compare giannis with simmons and are how much better one is despite relatively similar tools and weaknesses. giannis having a edge physically but simmons being probably a better ballhandler

is not even like simmons is a low "basketball IQ" player either

shows how important mentality is in the impact a player has

Well and I really feel like central to this difference is the presence of Joel Embiid. If you just know that you are the franchise player and that it's on you to make things happen, there's a clarity in that.

I don't think Simmons can be as good as Giannis, but do I think he can re-train himself to not hesitate when he has a shot? Certainly, in the right place.

[Texas Chuck]

is interesting to compare giannis with simmons and are how much better one is despite relatively similar tools and weaknesses. giannis having a edge physically but simmons being probably a better ballhandler

is not even like simmons is a low "basketball IQ" player either

shows how important mentality is in the impact a player has

Simmons is a guy with good size and athleticism, but there is a reason Giannis' nickname is Freak. He's just overwhelming with his physicality in ways Simmons is simply not capable of.

Simmons' understanding of basketball is very high and he's a very good player despite the narrative coming right off the loss to Atlanta. But Giannis is like he was made in a lab designed for ideal body size, strength, and athleticism for playing basketball. And we are all lucky he can't shoot. Because if he could shoot every team would be playing for 2nd for a long time.

I don't have the difference here being mentality though not to say Simmons doesn't have an issue with that. He's still not going to be Giannis with a different mentality. He doesn't have the physical gifts to overcome his skill shortcomings on offense the way Giannis does. Even with his superior vision and passing ability.