2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#501 » by 70sFan » Mon May 29, 2023 3:59 pm

SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
Why was Curry worse?

Because Davis was the best defender in the league, while Curry had one of his weakest defensive seasons in years, while underperforming offensively as well.


Are you still live in the world where offence and defence are equal 50/50?

It would be nice to find a proof for otherwise, I haven't seen a strong one so far.

Even then, Davis is much better offensively than Curry is defensively, so he doesn't need to be as good on defense as Curry on offense.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#502 » by HeartBreakKid » Mon May 29, 2023 4:09 pm

SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
Why was Curry worse?

Because Davis was the best defender in the league, while Curry had one of his weakest defensive seasons in years, while underperforming offensively as well.


Are you still live in the world where offence and defence are equal 50/50?


I mean...defense and offense are equal in basketball. What do you think teams are doing when they do not have the ball?
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#503 » by SpreeS » Mon May 29, 2023 4:21 pm

70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:Because Davis was the best defender in the league, while Curry had one of his weakest defensive seasons in years, while underperforming offensively as well.


Are you still live in the world where offence and defence are equal 50/50?

It would be nice to find a proof for otherwise, I haven't seen a strong one so far.

Even then, Davis is much better offensively than Curry is defensively, so he doesn't need to be as good on defense as Curry on offense.


Curry is a whole team offence and miles better than Davis who is only finisher. Now smart offences can isolate the best opp defender.

Davis def rtg

1st rnd 100.4
2nd rnd 113.7
3rd rnd 124.9

Now imagine if Klay woudn't shoot .300/.300 in 5 of 6 series games.

GSW PO offence (on/off)

Curry +18.5
.
.
.
.
Looney +5.3
Klay +4.7

Did LAL collapse on defence w/o Davis?
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#504 » by 70sFan » Mon May 29, 2023 5:09 pm

SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
Are you still live in the world where offence and defence are equal 50/50?

It would be nice to find a proof for otherwise, I haven't seen a strong one so far.

Even then, Davis is much better offensively than Curry is defensively, so he doesn't need to be as good on defense as Curry on offense.


Curry is a whole team offence and miles better than Davis who is only finisher. Now smart offences can isolate the best opp defender.

Davis def rtg

1st rnd 100.4
2nd rnd 113.7
3rd rnd 124.9

Now imagine if Klay woudn't shoot .300/.300 in 5 of 6 series games.

Davis is a whole team defense and miles better than Curry who isn't even a positive defender anymore. Now smart defenses can negate the best opposing offensive player.

I get that you like Curry, but nobody can agree with your evaluation or basketball philosophy.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#505 » by eminence » Mon May 29, 2023 5:19 pm

I think one could reasonably argue for either Curry/AD. I generally preferred Curry during the RS and didn’t mind his defense as much as some seem to have done. AD vs the Nuggets was the worst series either had.

AD had the better head to head series and a better 2nd best series.

I think you can go either way on who had the best series this season.

I think I’m leaning Curry currently, but could flip.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#506 » by SpreeS » Mon May 29, 2023 5:23 pm

70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:It would be nice to find a proof for otherwise, I haven't seen a strong one so far.

Even then, Davis is much better offensively than Curry is defensively, so he doesn't need to be as good on defense as Curry on offense.


Curry is a whole team offence and miles better than Davis who is only finisher. Now smart offences can isolate the best opp defender.

Davis def rtg

1st rnd 100.4
2nd rnd 113.7
3rd rnd 124.9

Now imagine if Klay woudn't shoot .300/.300 in 5 of 6 series games.

Davis is a whole team defense and miles better than Curry who isn't even a positive defender anymore. Now smart defenses can negate the best opposing offensive player.

I get that you like Curry, but nobody can agree with your evaluation or basketball philosophy.


Go and look at GSW offence on/off and LAL def on/off ...One team collapse and other not so much. The best defender in the league had 125 drtg against DEN. Look at MIN and PHO numbers...
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#507 » by 70sFan » Mon May 29, 2023 5:38 pm

SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
Curry is a whole team offence and miles better than Davis who is only finisher. Now smart offences can isolate the best opp defender.

Davis def rtg

1st rnd 100.4
2nd rnd 113.7
3rd rnd 124.9

Now imagine if Klay woudn't shoot .300/.300 in 5 of 6 series games.

Davis is a whole team defense and miles better than Curry who isn't even a positive defender anymore. Now smart defenses can negate the best opposing offensive player.

I get that you like Curry, but nobody can agree with your evaluation or basketball philosophy.


Go and look at GSW offence on/off and LAL def on/off ...One team collapse and other not so much. The best defender in the league had 125 drtg against DEN. Look at MIN and PHO numbers...

Sure, let's look at such a small sample and ignore what we see in games...
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#508 » by SpreeS » Mon May 29, 2023 6:56 pm

70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:Davis is a whole team defense and miles better than Curry who isn't even a positive defender anymore. Now smart defenses can negate the best opposing offensive player.

I get that you like Curry, but nobody can agree with your evaluation or basketball philosophy.


Go and look at GSW offence on/off and LAL def on/off ...One team collapse and other not so much. The best defender in the league had 125 drtg against DEN. Look at MIN and PHO numbers...

Sure, let's look at such a small sample and ignore what we see in games...


…or what you don’t see in games…
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#509 » by Doctor MJ » Mon May 29, 2023 7:16 pm

70sFan wrote:Because Davis was the best defender in the league, while Curry had one of his weakest defensive seasons in years, while underperforming offensively as well.


I'm tripping on the last part. I'm currently leaning toward AD over Curry or Booker, but saying Curry "underperformed" on offense makes me wonder what the standard is here exactly.

In the regular season, Curry averaged 29 PPG on pace for a TS Add over 200 if he'd been healthier. That seems like right within Curry's prime range.

In the playoffs Curry's scoring volume went up and was the highest scoring player in both series he was in. His efficiency in the Laker series was meh by his standards of course, but even leaving aside that AD's defense did a number on what the Warriors could do from inside, his score-first teammates (Klay, Poole) were the guys with the serious drop off.

So given this, what was the underperformance?

I'll put this another way: I'd say that Curry - as well as Booker - are in consideration for spots on my OPOY. They are far behind Jokic of course, but after that, I don't think there's anyone that has a clear cut gap between he and them.

Now, I have no issue at all with putting AD over guys on the OPOY ballot to be clear, I just would hesitate to call ballot candidates disappointments.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#510 » by Doctor MJ » Mon May 29, 2023 7:24 pm

70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:Because Davis was the best defender in the league, while Curry had one of his weakest defensive seasons in years, while underperforming offensively as well.


Are you still live in the world where offence and defence are equal 50/50?

It would be nice to find a proof for otherwise, I haven't seen a strong one so far.

Even then, Davis is much better offensively than Curry is defensively, so he doesn't need to be as good on defense as Curry on offense.


So, seems like you guys are circling around a key thing without explicitly saying it:

Team-wise, the game is 50/50.

This does not mean individual stars on one end of the floor are operating with the same impact on that end of the floor as a counterpart star does on the other end.

Back in the '60s, it's pretty clear that in practice top defensive anchors were able to have bigger impact than top offensive leads, but now I believe the data is pretty clear cut pointing to individual potential for offensive impact being greater than for defensive impact.

With that said, I believe the overall RAPM data sides with Davis during the regular season over Curry this year, and then that series they played where Davis was the undeniable star of the show looms large.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#511 » by Doctor MJ » Mon May 29, 2023 7:34 pm

SpreeS wrote:Curry is a whole team offence and miles better than Davis who is only finisher. Now smart offences can isolate the best opp defender.

Davis def rtg

1st rnd 100.4
2nd rnd 113.7
3rd rnd 124.9

Now imagine if Klay woudn't shoot .300/.300 in 5 of 6 series games.

GSW PO offence (on/off)

Curry +18.5
.
.
.
.
Looney +5.3
Klay +4.7

Did LAL collapse on defence w/o Davis?


I think you're pointing to something real and important.

Key thing for me: AD got his mojo working these playoffs...but it didn't work on Jokic.

I can definitely see an argument that the way Denver just destroyed the Laker defense is a major argument against AD for both POY and DPOY ballots - and this is coming from someone who sees AD as a strong candidate for the #1 spot on his DPOY ballot.

In the comparison between AD & Curry though, there is the matter that the only reason AD & friends were handled by Denver is because AD led the Lakers to victory of Curry and the Warriors. I do think we should be cautious about giving the nod simply because of who won in the head-to-head, particularly when the two players weren't really up against each other individually, but I do think that for anyone who had AD higher than Curry before the Warrior-Laker series, it's probably a given that they'd still have AD ahead now.

For myself, I can't claim it's so straight forward, and I'd enjoy seeing further points put forth on either side.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#512 » by 70sFan » Mon May 29, 2023 7:35 pm

SpreeS wrote:
70sFan wrote:
SpreeS wrote:
Go and look at GSW offence on/off and LAL def on/off ...One team collapse and other not so much. The best defender in the league had 125 drtg against DEN. Look at MIN and PHO numbers...

Sure, let's look at such a small sample and ignore what we see in games...


…or what you don’t see in games…

Enlighten me then.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#513 » by 70sFan » Mon May 29, 2023 7:37 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:Because Davis was the best defender in the league, while Curry had one of his weakest defensive seasons in years, while underperforming offensively as well.


I'm tripping on the last part. I'm currently leaning toward AD over Curry or Booker, but saying Curry "underperformed" on offense makes me wonder what the standard is here exactly.

In the regular season, Curry averaged 29 PPG on pace for a TS Add over 200 if he'd been healthier. That seems like right within Curry's prime range.

In the playoffs Curry's scoring volume went up and was the highest scoring player in both series he was in. His efficiency in the Laker series was meh by his standards of course, but even leaving aside that AD's defense did a number on what the Warriors could do from inside, his score-first teammates (Klay, Poole) were the guys with the serious drop off.

So given this, what was the underperformance?

I'll put this another way: I'd say that Curry - as well as Booker - are in consideration for spots on my OPOY. They are far behind Jokic of course, but after that, I don't think there's anyone that has a clear cut gap between he and them.

Now, I have no issue at all with putting AD over guys on the OPOY ballot to be clear, I just would hesitate to call ballot candidates disappointments.

This part was about Curry's postseason run and Lakers series more speficically. I didn't mean that Curry was bad offensively, but he underperformed against the Lakers relative to his standards. Do you disagree with that?
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#514 » by 70sFan » Mon May 29, 2023 7:41 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:So, seems like you guys are circling around a key thing without explicitly saying it:

Team-wise, the game is 50/50.

This does not mean individual stars on one end of the floor are operating with the same impact on that end of the floor as a counterpart star does on the other end.

Back in the '60s, it's pretty clear that in practice top defensive anchors were able to have bigger impact than top offensive leads, but now I believe the data is pretty clear cut pointing to individual potential for offensive impact being greater than for defensive impact.

It's a reasonable statement, but I haven't seen any reliable estimation of how much more impactful offensive stars are compared to defensive stars. I know it's opinio comunis among basketball fans, but I'd like to see such data.

Another thing is that in this specific situation, we're talking about the best defender in the league who also happened to be a star offensively vs Curry who doesn't bring any value on defense.

With that said, I believe the overall RAPM data sides with Davis during the regular season over Curry this year, and then that series they played where Davis was the undeniable star of the show looms large.

...which was my original point. A point SpreeS finds questionable.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#515 » by Doctor MJ » Mon May 29, 2023 7:54 pm

70sFan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:Because Davis was the best defender in the league, while Curry had one of his weakest defensive seasons in years, while underperforming offensively as well.


I'm tripping on the last part. I'm currently leaning toward AD over Curry or Booker, but saying Curry "underperformed" on offense makes me wonder what the standard is here exactly.

In the regular season, Curry averaged 29 PPG on pace for a TS Add over 200 if he'd been healthier. That seems like right within Curry's prime range.

In the playoffs Curry's scoring volume went up and was the highest scoring player in both series he was in. His efficiency in the Laker series was meh by his standards of course, but even leaving aside that AD's defense did a number on what the Warriors could do from inside, his score-first teammates (Klay, Poole) were the guys with the serious drop off.

So given this, what was the underperformance?

I'll put this another way: I'd say that Curry - as well as Booker - are in consideration for spots on my OPOY. They are far behind Jokic of course, but after that, I don't think there's anyone that has a clear cut gap between he and them.

Now, I have no issue at all with putting AD over guys on the OPOY ballot to be clear, I just would hesitate to call ballot candidates disappointments.

This part was about Curry's postseason run and Lakers series more speficically. I didn't mean that Curry was bad offensively, but he underperformed against the Lakers relative to his standards. Do you disagree with that?


I probably wouldn't put it the same way, but I understand where you're coming from. His numbers were certainly held down to a degree by the Laker D.

But consider this perspective:

Memphis RS ORtg: 115.1
Memphis PS ORtg: 104.7
Naive Assessment of PS Laker rDRtg: -10.4

Golden State RS ORtg: 116.1
Expected Golden State ORtg against PS Lakers: 116.1 - 10.4 = 105.7
Actual Golden State ORtg against PS Lakers: 111.6

In these terms, the Warriors would not be seen as underperforming but overperforming expectations.

Now, I'm not saying that this approach to evaluating the post-season Laker defense is "the right way", and I'm certainly not looking to ignore the fact that based on this approach Jokic's Nuggets are a whole nother level of great, but in terms of the argument "How can Curry be above a 2-way star when he disappointed in his area of strength?", I think it's important to recognize that it's not so clear cut depending on where you're looking from.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#516 » by Doctor MJ » Mon May 29, 2023 8:08 pm

70sFan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:So, seems like you guys are circling around a key thing without explicitly saying it:

Team-wise, the game is 50/50.

This does not mean individual stars on one end of the floor are operating with the same impact on that end of the floor as a counterpart star does on the other end.

Back in the '60s, it's pretty clear that in practice top defensive anchors were able to have bigger impact than top offensive leads, but now I believe the data is pretty clear cut pointing to individual potential for offensive impact being greater than for defensive impact.

It's a reasonable statement, but I haven't seen any reliable estimation of how much more impactful offensive stars are compared to defensive stars. I know it's opinio comunis among basketball fans, but I'd like to see such data.

Another thing is that in this specific situation, we're talking about the best defender in the league who also happened to be a star offensively vs Curry who doesn't bring any value on defense.

With that said, I believe the overall RAPM data sides with Davis during the regular season over Curry this year, and then that series they played where Davis was the undeniable star of the show looms large.

...which was my original point. A point SpreeS finds questionable.


Okay, so if I go to nbashotcharts, go to single year RAPM for '22-23, downlaod the CSV, and that take the standard deviation for the league based on this data, here's what I get for Offense vs Defense:

Offensive RAPM SD: .766
Defensive RAPM SD: .655

This is what I would point to as evidence that in general players have more capacity for impact on offense than defense. Where players are better able to separate themselves from the peers, we'd expect greater variance, thus a greater SD means greater separation, and hence impact.

Let me know if you have any questions or objections.

I'm kinda motivated to do this for every year they have now, and I'll fully acknowledge that if this year ends up looking like a fluke that would disprove my point, but I don't think that's what we'd see in general based on my prior investigations along these lines - which obviously doesn't go back as far as we'd like due to the unavailability of the requisite data.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#517 » by 70sFan » Mon May 29, 2023 8:12 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
I'm tripping on the last part. I'm currently leaning toward AD over Curry or Booker, but saying Curry "underperformed" on offense makes me wonder what the standard is here exactly.

In the regular season, Curry averaged 29 PPG on pace for a TS Add over 200 if he'd been healthier. That seems like right within Curry's prime range.

In the playoffs Curry's scoring volume went up and was the highest scoring player in both series he was in. His efficiency in the Laker series was meh by his standards of course, but even leaving aside that AD's defense did a number on what the Warriors could do from inside, his score-first teammates (Klay, Poole) were the guys with the serious drop off.

So given this, what was the underperformance?

I'll put this another way: I'd say that Curry - as well as Booker - are in consideration for spots on my OPOY. They are far behind Jokic of course, but after that, I don't think there's anyone that has a clear cut gap between he and them.

Now, I have no issue at all with putting AD over guys on the OPOY ballot to be clear, I just would hesitate to call ballot candidates disappointments.

This part was about Curry's postseason run and Lakers series more speficically. I didn't mean that Curry was bad offensively, but he underperformed against the Lakers relative to his standards. Do you disagree with that?


I probably wouldn't put it the same way, but I understand where you're coming from. His numbers were certainly held down to a degree by the Laker D.

But consider this perspective:

Memphis RS ORtg: 115.1
Memphis PS ORtg: 104.7
Naive Assessment of PS Laker rDRtg: -10.4

Golden State RS ORtg: 116.1
Expected Golden State ORtg against PS Lakers: 116.1 - 10.4 = 105.7
Actual Golden State ORtg against PS Lakers: 111.6

In these terms, the Warriors would not be seen as underperforming but overperforming expectations.

Now, I'm not saying that this approach to evaluating the post-season Laker defense is "the right way", and I'm certainly not looking to ignore the fact that based on this approach Jokic's Nuggets are a whole nother level of great, but in terms of the argument "How can Curry be above a 2-way star when he disappointed in his area of strength?", I think it's important to recognize that it's not so clear cut depending on where you're looking from.

To be honest, I don't think using Lakers DRtg from the 1st round against injured Grizzlies means anything. If you look at from another perspective:

Warriors RS ORtg: 116.1
Lakers RS DRtg since Westbrook trade (27 games): 112.5

Warriors ORtg against the Lakers: 111.6

Warriors were held not only below their RS standards (this should be expected), but also below Lakers defensive standards. I get that Lakers shut down Grizzlies offense, but at the same time they got dominated offensively than Nuggets - if we take Lakers DRtg from Grizzlies and Nuggets series, we get 112.5 DRtg - which is still worse than what they accomplished against Warriors.

My point isn't even about Warriors offense, Curry wasn't their main problem when Klay shot 30% from the field. It doesn't change the fact that even from individual perspective, Curry definitely underperformed in that series. He had very subpar game 1, got back with solid game 2, then was very underwhelming in game 3 again and his last two games were definitely below his standards (although I wouldn't call them poor). It's just not a good series for a top 10 offensive GOAT standards. Not a knock on Curry, such performances happen - but when they happen, we should be free to call it the way it is.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#518 » by Doctor MJ » Mon May 29, 2023 8:26 pm

70sFan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:This part was about Curry's postseason run and Lakers series more speficically. I didn't mean that Curry was bad offensively, but he underperformed against the Lakers relative to his standards. Do you disagree with that?


I probably wouldn't put it the same way, but I understand where you're coming from. His numbers were certainly held down to a degree by the Laker D.

But consider this perspective:

Memphis RS ORtg: 115.1
Memphis PS ORtg: 104.7
Naive Assessment of PS Laker rDRtg: -10.4

Golden State RS ORtg: 116.1
Expected Golden State ORtg against PS Lakers: 116.1 - 10.4 = 105.7
Actual Golden State ORtg against PS Lakers: 111.6

In these terms, the Warriors would not be seen as underperforming but overperforming expectations.

Now, I'm not saying that this approach to evaluating the post-season Laker defense is "the right way", and I'm certainly not looking to ignore the fact that based on this approach Jokic's Nuggets are a whole nother level of great, but in terms of the argument "How can Curry be above a 2-way star when he disappointed in his area of strength?", I think it's important to recognize that it's not so clear cut depending on where you're looking from.

To be honest, I don't think using Lakers DRtg from the 1st round against injured Grizzlies means anything. If you look at from another perspective:

Warriors RS ORtg: 116.1
Lakers RS DRtg since Westbrook trade (27 games): 112.5

Warriors ORtg against the Lakers: 111.6

Warriors were held not only below their RS standards (this should be expected), but also below Lakers defensive standards. I get that Lakers shut down Grizzlies offense, but at the same time they got dominated offensively than Nuggets - if we take Lakers DRtg from Grizzlies and Nuggets series, we get 112.5 DRtg - which is still worse than what they accomplished against Warriors.

My point isn't even about Warriors offense, Curry wasn't their main problem when Klay shot 30% from the field. It doesn't change the fact that even from individual perspective, Curry definitely underperformed in that series. He had very subpar game 1, got back with solid game 2, then was very underwhelming in game 3 again and his last two games were definitely below his standards (although I wouldn't call them poor). It's just not a good series for a top 10 offensive GOAT standards. Not a knock on Curry, such performances happen - but when they happen, we should be free to call it the way it is.


I'm reluctant to say the Grizz in the playoffs were drastically worse than they were in the average regular season game, and I would also point out that the Grizz are kind of known for being able to tread water despite losing offensive stars.

But I'll again acknowledge that the lens I used isn't the only one, and I think exploring others is good.

I would point out that AD played more MPG and blocked considerably more shots per minute in the playoffs than he did in the span you mention though. I don't think there's any doubt that Davis is a guy whose intensity varies considerably and that he very much up'ed it in these playoffs.

Re: when they happen, feel free to call it that way. Fair enough. I suppose a key thing here is that it felt to me like you were using it to say "How can Curry be ranked ahead of AD when Curry disappointed on offense and Davis is better on defense?". I don't think you have something so simple in your thought process to be clear, but it made me push back a bit.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#519 » by 70sFan » Mon May 29, 2023 9:02 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:So, seems like you guys are circling around a key thing without explicitly saying it:

Team-wise, the game is 50/50.

This does not mean individual stars on one end of the floor are operating with the same impact on that end of the floor as a counterpart star does on the other end.

Back in the '60s, it's pretty clear that in practice top defensive anchors were able to have bigger impact than top offensive leads, but now I believe the data is pretty clear cut pointing to individual potential for offensive impact being greater than for defensive impact.

It's a reasonable statement, but I haven't seen any reliable estimation of how much more impactful offensive stars are compared to defensive stars. I know it's opinio comunis among basketball fans, but I'd like to see such data.

Another thing is that in this specific situation, we're talking about the best defender in the league who also happened to be a star offensively vs Curry who doesn't bring any value on defense.

With that said, I believe the overall RAPM data sides with Davis during the regular season over Curry this year, and then that series they played where Davis was the undeniable star of the show looms large.

...which was my original point. A point SpreeS finds questionable.


Okay, so if I go to nbashotcharts, go to single year RAPM for '22-23, downlaod the CSV, and that take the standard deviation for the league based on this data, here's what I get for Offense vs Defense:

Offensive RAPM SD: .766
Defensive RAPM SD: .655

This is what I would point to as evidence that in general players have more capacity for impact on offense than defense. Where players are better able to separate themselves from the peers, we'd expect greater variance, thus a greater SD means greater separation, and hence impact.

Let me know if you have any questions or objections.

I'm kinda motivated to do this for every year they have now, and I'll fully acknowledge that if this year ends up looking like a fluke that would disprove my point, but I don't think that's what we'd see in general based on my prior investigations along these lines - which obviously doesn't go back as far as we'd like due to the unavailability of the requisite data.

Thanks for the data, I appreciate effort. I decided to run the numbers for you for a few more seasons (along with luck adjusted numbers):

2023 Offensive RAPM SD: .766, .600 LA
2023 Defensive RAPM SD: .655, .519 LA

2022 Offensive RAPM SD: .770, .603 LA
2022 Defensive RAPM SD: .677, .513 LA

2021 Offensive RAPM SD: .892, .669 LA
2021 Defensive RAPM SD: .691, .564 LA

2020 Offensive RAPM SD: .772, .687 LA
2020 Defensive RAPM SD: .751, .612 LA

2019 Offensive RAPM SD: .765, .628 LA
2019 Defensive RAPM SD: .655, .536 LA

2018 Offensive RAPM SD: .759, .604 LA
2018 Defensive RAPM SD: .696, .531 LA

2017 Offensive RAPM SD: .862, .737 LA
2017 Defensive RAPM SD: .694, .567 LA

2016 Offensive RAPM SD: .796, .682 LA
2016 Defensive RAPM SD: .727, .611 LA

2015 Offensive RAPM SD: .876, .724 LA
2015 Defensive RAPM SD: .759, .654 LA

2014 Offensive RAPM SD: .804, 1.724 LA
2014 Defensive RAPM SD: .733, 1.514 LA

2013 Offensive RAPM SD: 1.160, 1.041 LA
2013 Defensive RAPM SD: 1.048, .928 LA

2012 Offensive RAPM SD: 1.330, 1.201 LA
2012 Defensive RAPM SD: 1.206, 1.403 LA

2011 Offensive RAPM SD: 1.251, 1.674 LA
2011 Defensive RAPM SD: 1.157, 1.431 LA

2010 Offensive RAPM SD: 1.233, 1.149 LA
2010 Defensive RAPM SD: 1.053, 1.003 LA

Some thoughts:

- it seems that the variance is indeed bigger on offense. To make a more in-depth analysis, I'd have to make histograms to see how much deviation is influenced by bad outliers vs good outliers (but I don't have the time for that now),
- there are many ups and downs in variance year after year, showing how noisy a single season sample is,
- pre-2014 RAPM numbers are way noiser, I don't know the reason for that though (probably older and less accurate possession counting methods?).

The difference between offense and defense indeed exists. Now, it would be interesting to try to translate this difference into something quantifible. Less than 0.2 in RAPM value is almost nothing considering the noisiness of the stat, but we can't ignore it either. Don't have the time now to do anything else, but let me know what you think about it.
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Re: 2022-23 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread 

Post#520 » by 70sFan » Mon May 29, 2023 9:07 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:I'm reluctant to say the Grizz in the playoffs were drastically worse than they were in the average regular season game, and I would also point out that the Grizz are kind of known for being able to tread water despite losing offensive stars.

Grizzlies missed two starters in that series and had no depth. It's not a case of missing Morant for some time in the RS, to me they were clearly outmatched due to shorter rotation in that series.

I would point out that AD played more MPG and blocked considerably more shots per minute in the playoffs than he did in the span you mention though. I don't think there's any doubt that Davis is a guy whose intensity varies considerably and that he very much up'ed it in these playoffs.

Good point, it's definitely worth consideration. At the same time, players usually are more focused on offensive end as well in the playoffs. It's not an easy thing to adjust for, I admit.

Re: when they happen, feel free to call it that way. Fair enough. I suppose a key thing here is that it felt to me like you were using it to say "How can Curry be ranked ahead of AD when Curry disappointed on offense and Davis is better on defense?". I don't think you have something so simple in your thought process to be clear, but it made me push back a bit.

I said in the original post that Davis was arguably better than Curry both in RS and in the playoffs. I never said it's impossible to pick Curry, only that his argument is quite weak to me. I understand that some people may still prefer Curry overall, although I think you agree with me that Davis looked considerably more dominant at least H2H.

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