'17-'18 POY discussion

[Dr Positivity]

So I’m not exactly sure where to put this, maybe it belongs in the OT thread, but this seems to be the best place for NBA meta discussion.

I have a pet theory that 5 years from now we are going to have to do some serious revisionism on the 2018 NBA season. Something is very, very wrong in the current league metagame.

I think the Rockets are a legit all-time type of team. I think the Raptors and Jazz are good enough to be fringe contenders in any given NBA season. That said, none of these teams are legitimately good enough to be pulling off 23-2 stretches or other such nonsense that’s happening right now. The amount of win streaks and 90% win% stretches is a frightening anomaly; I don’t remember anything remotely similar happening in any other NBA season. You have (and I’m sorry about this) crushingly mediocre teams like Portland and New Orleans all of a sudden rattling off 9 wins in a row or 13-of-15 stretches and things like this. Again, something here doesn’t pass the smell test.

If I had to guess, I’d point to two factors.

1. The All-time tank race. Right now you have a full 1/3rd of the league’s teams openly trying to lose games and finish under 3p wins. Obviously this is an aberration.
2. The league-wide explosion in offense the last few years. So Zach Lowe mentioned on a podcast recently that since January league-wide offense has shot up by 3-4 points/100. This is related to the previous issue mentioned, but it’s also part of a long trend. The best offenses are getting better since 2015 at a rate far unorecedented in NBA history, and league-wide average offense is improving as well. We’re living through an offensive bubble right now, and as teams play faster and shoot more 3s, this is probably only going to continue.

I think wen you combine these two factors what you get is an erosion of the NBA “middle class”. There are very few teams that you can really just call “mediocre” anymore, especially after the all-star break. The good teams are suddenly playing like all-time greats while the bad teams are setting records for the longest ever losing streaks.

I don’t know what this means for evaluations of any player in particular. But i want to bring this up because I think it should impact our evaluations of this season.

My guess for the streaks was the 3pt shooting leading to more high variance results. Either teams get hot from 3 or their opponents miss open 3s at a unsustainable rate for a while.

It's definitely not just a 17-18 thing. Eg. The Heat won 13 games in a row last season, the Hawks 33-2 run in 2015 was arguably pretty flukey, etc.

[Dr Spaceman]

So I’m not exactly sure where to put this, maybe it belongs in the OT thread, but this seems to be the best place for NBA meta discussion.

I have a pet theory that 5 years from now we are going to have to do some serious revisionism on the 2018 NBA season. Something is very, very wrong in the current league metagame.

I think the Rockets are a legit all-time type of team. I think the Raptors and Jazz are good enough to be fringe contenders in any given NBA season. That said, none of these teams are legitimately good enough to be pulling off 23-2 stretches or other such nonsense that’s happening right now. The amount of win streaks and 90% win% stretches is a frightening anomaly; I don’t remember anything remotely similar happening in any other NBA season. You have (and I’m sorry about this) crushingly mediocre teams like Portland and New Orleans all of a sudden rattling off 9 wins in a row or 13-of-15 stretches and things like this. Again, something here doesn’t pass the smell test.

If I had to guess, I’d point to two factors.

1. The All-time tank race. Right now you have a full 1/3rd of the league’s teams openly trying to lose games and finish under 3p wins. Obviously this is an aberration.
2. The league-wide explosion in offense the last few years. So Zach Lowe mentioned on a podcast recently that since January league-wide offense has shot up by 3-4 points/100. This is related to the previous issue mentioned, but it’s also part of a long trend. The best offenses are getting better since 2015 at a rate far unorecedented in NBA history, and league-wide average offense is improving as well. We’re living through an offensive bubble right now, and as teams play faster and shoot more 3s, this is probably only going to continue.

I think wen you combine these two factors what you get is an erosion of the NBA “middle class”. There are very few teams that you can really just call “mediocre” anymore, especially after the all-star break. The good teams are suddenly playing like all-time greats while the bad teams are setting records for the longest ever losing streaks.

I don’t know what this means for evaluations of any player in particular. But i want to bring this up because I think it should impact our evaluations of this season.

My guess for the streaks was the 3pt shooting leading to more high variance results. Either teams get hot from 3 or their opponents miss open 3s at a unsustainable rate for a while.

It's definitely not just a 17-18 thing. Eg. The Heat won 13 games in a row last season, the Hawks 33-2 run in 2015 was arguably pretty flukey, etc.

Win streaks have always been a thing, even going back to the Rockets winning 220 something in a row in 2008.

But what I’m talking about here is the top6 or so teams in the West going like 45-2 over a month and a half now. I don’t recall that happening before.

[bondom34]

Well Curry throwing a big wrench into things.

[Dr Spaceman]

Well Curry throwing a big wrench into things.

****. This is exactly how it went down in 2016 too- recurrent ankle sprains eventually lead to a knee injury due to the extra stress.

Genuinely sorry for Warriors fans out there. This sucks for everyone, but especially for you guys. Curry’s one of the most exhilarating players I can ever remember watching and any year he’s not 100% is a sucky year.

[bondom34]

Well Curry throwing a big wrench into things.

****. This is exactly how it went down in 2016 too- recurrent ankle sprains eventually lead to a knee injury due to the extra stress.

Genuinely sorry for Warriors fans out there. This sucks for everyone, but especially for you guys. Curry’s one of the most exhilarating players I can ever remember watching and any year he’s not 100% is a sucky year.

Yep, and I don't think he was this hurt then, and Houston is better than anyone that year. I really hope he's back by playoffs and good to go.

[dhsilv2]

Meanwhile Nike is having some evil laugh about Curry wearing UA's like they did with Grant Hill back in the day.

[Dr Spaceman]

Meanwhile Nike is having some evil laugh about Curry wearing UA's like they did with Grant Hill back in the day.

I bought some Adidas Crazy Lights back in 2010 or so and have never had so many foot and knee problems in my entire life. I would barely be able to bend my knee after games.

The next winter bought myself a pair of Melo Jordan Brand’s and never looked back. They’re still in quite good shape and I wear them when I play outdoors; probably the most comfortable basketball shoes I’ve ever worn.

Just go Nike, everyone.

[Dr Spaceman]

Bron has quietly been killing it the last month or so. Still not quite good enough to make up for the 1/4th of the season where he was godawful, but with the playoff run he’s gearing up for I don’t see a way he will finish outside my top 5.

[E-Balla]

Bron has quietly been killing it the last month or so. Still not quite good enough to make up for the 1/4th of the season where he was godawful, but with the playoff run he’s gearing up for I don’t see a way he will finish outside my top 5.

I'm not gonna lie I haven't seen Cleveland play all but once this month and I've seen his numbers trending upwards but has his play actually improved (and by that I mean his defense)? I don't think Cleveland has been winning more recently and I haven't seen them so I have no idea.

Also wanted to say can Lamarcus start getting some love? All the talk on the Spurs is about how Kawhi being gone has doomed them and a short while back people thought they wouldn't even make the playoffs after that rough stretch when LMA was hurt and they went 2-8 but since he's come back LMA has been a beast. 32/9/2 on 62 TS% (and only a 5 TOV%) in the last 6 games going 6-0 with wins over the Pelicans, Minny, Washington, and last night an incredible performance against Utah (where he was locking down Don Mitchell on switches and scored 45). Without LMA on the floor the Spurs are terrible and they're still headed to a top 4 seed with the 5th best SRS in the league. Pop isn't even doing his thing like usual that bench has been incredibly rough. Probably the worst bench they've had since before Manu emerged as the truth back in 05.

Spurs have 7 of their next 9 games against playoff teams or teams in playoff contention too (and 8 of their last 9 have been against playoff teams). If the Spurs keep a top 4 seed through all this LMA needs to get some love and to hit some of y'alls top 5 lists. In the highly unlikely chance he keeps this hot streak going into the playoffs and the Spurs make it to the WCF he might be in contention for #1.

[1993Playoffs]

Does AD have a case as being a better player than Harden? I honestly feel AD is reaching his prime and its debatable that he is already better than Harden

[Doctor MJ]

So Joel Embiid is now 6th in raw +/- leaders, trailing only Rockets and Steph Curry.

He's also 6th in +/- per minutes, trailing only Rockets and Curry.

It's just such a stark contrast between him and other guys he's getting compared with on more typical teams.
Just to compare raw totals here:

Embiid 436
Davis 219
Giannis 179

(then there's whatever the hell is happen in Cleveland. LeBron isn't even up there with those guys)


I'm more an more getting the feeling that Embiid is my top front court guy for the regular season MVP. I wouldn't pick him over LeBron for the playoffs, but really, I think I would over Davis or Giannis.

[ThaRegul8r]

Magic and he lakers are the closet other example I suppose but what was their best finals in a row?

Showtime Lakers made four straight Finals from '82 to '85, then made three straight from '87 to '89. After becoming the first team to repeat since Russell's Celtics in '88, Magic went down in '89, so that ended any hopes of a threepeat (Pat Riley had the foresight to trademark the term though, so he profited when the Bulls and Lakers did it).

[Senior]

4 years of deep playoff runs seems to be the breaking point for the repeating title winners. 91 Pistons crashed and burned against the Bulls. Same with 03 LA vs SA, 11 LA vs Mavs, 96 Rockets vs Sonics, 14 Miami vs SA, 88 BOS vs DET, 89 LA vs DET...those 3-4 years of 100+ game seasons just breaks teams down. Obviously no team wins forever but those teams got destroyed to end their runs. And after those years none of those teams were ever the same.

After the format change in 1984 (adding the additional playoff round for the top seeds) only MJ's Bulls avoided that crushing playoff loss and he probably shouldn't even count. We'll see what happens with GS this year - Durant being there gives them a bit more leeway than the past teams but they need Curry/Draymond 100% vs Houston.

It's a long way down.

[Dr Spaceman]

Does AD have a case as being a better player than Harden? I honestly feel AD is reaching his prime and its debatable that he is already better than Harden

Nope. Not even a slight chance IMO.

Sorry to be so pithy but I am really starting to understand why Rockets fans get so defensive about James being overlooked.

[Dr Spaceman]

4 years of deep playoff runs seems to be the breaking point for the repeating title winners. 91 Pistons crashed and burned against the Bulls. Same with 03 LA vs SA, 11 LA vs Mavs, 96 Rockets vs Sonics, 14 Miami vs SA, 88 BOS vs DET, 89 LA vs DET...those 3-4 years of 100+ game seasons just breaks teams down. Obviously no team wins forever but those teams got destroyed to end their runs. And after those years none of those teams were ever the same.

After the format change in 1984 (adding the additional playoff round for the top seeds) only MJ's Bulls avoided that crushing playoff loss and he probably shouldn't even count. We'll see what happens with GS this year - Durant being there gives them a bit more leeway than the past teams but they need Curry/Draymond 100% vs Houston.

It's a long way down.

Yeah Russillo said it really well last week: It’s always over before you think it is.

The guy that really upsets me is Durant. As the new guy I expected him to revitalize them and supercharge the team when the other guys can’t muster it and yet he’s been by far their biggest coaster. Even worse than Draymond, who is a player that relies almost entirely on motor and hustle.

[Missing Rings]

The guy that really upsets me is Durant. As the new guy I expected him to revitalize them and supercharge the team when the other guys can’t muster it and yet he’s been by far their biggest coaster. Even worse than Draymond, who is a player that relies almost entirely on motor and hustle.

It goes back to who he is, which isn't a leader.

[Senior]

Yeah Russillo said it really well last week: It’s always over before you think it is.

The guy that really upsets me is Durant. As the new guy I expected him to revitalize them and supercharge the team when the other guys can’t muster it and yet he’s been by far their biggest coaster. Even worse than Draymond, who is a player that relies almost entirely on motor and hustle.

Yeah. There were some teams like the older Celtics/Lakers/Rockets teams that knew their window was small but some such as Shaq/Kobe Lakers and big 3 heat that were projected to win like 5-6 titles. Then real life happened. Same with the Warriors - after last year everyone thought we might as well take a nap until 2020 when those guys get old. Problem is, those multiple years of playoff runs tack on basketball years/mileage at a much higher rate than a typical season. The difference between 60 and 80 vs 80 and 100 is much bigger than it appears to be, and all those teams I mentioned had significant and crippling injuries throughout their RS and then in the playoffs. GS isn't any different with all 4 of their main guys out. Most of those teams had playoff series that went the distance the year before they fell apart, so we'll see if that plays out with their likely WCF opponent in Houston.

Durant...I don't like playing armchair psychologist, but it's possible he saw how easily they wiped everyone last year and settled himself into coast-mode knowing the Warriors could just snooze through the RS. Not really an indefensible thing to do - and he himself has been making deep playoff runs (albeit with 1 year off). So as long as he can turn that on-off switch to ON, it shouldn't be damning.

[Missing Rings]

Yeah Russillo said it really well last week: It’s always over before you think it is.

The guy that really upsets me is Durant. As the new guy I expected him to revitalize them and supercharge the team when the other guys can’t muster it and yet he’s been by far their biggest coaster. Even worse than Draymond, who is a player that relies almost entirely on motor and hustle.

Yeah. There were some teams like the older Celtics/Lakers/Rockets teams that knew their window was small but some such as Shaq/Kobe Lakers and big 3 heat that were projected to win like 5-6 titles. Then real life happened. Same with the Warriors - after last year everyone thought we might as well take a nap until 2020 when those guys get old. Problem is, those multiple years of playoff runs tack on basketball years/mileage at a much higher rate than a typical season. The difference between 60 and 80 vs 80 and 100 is much bigger than it appears to be, and all those teams I mentioned had significant and crippling injuries throughout their RS and then in the playoffs. GS isn't any different with all 4 of their main guys out. Most of those teams had playoff series that went the distance the year before they fell apart, so we'll see if that plays out with their likely WCF opponent in Houston.

Durant...I don't like playing armchair psychologist, but it's possible he saw how easily they wiped everyone last year and settled himself into coast-mode knowing the Warriors could just snooze through the RS. Not really an indefensible thing to do - and he himself has been making deep playoff runs (albeit with 1 year off). So as long as he can turn that on-off switch to ON, it shouldn't be damning.

To build on this...

Do you think this makes what LeBron has done more impressive?
Do you think LeBron knows this?
Is there an advantage for LeBron changing casts every 3-4 years since 07?

[Dr Spaceman]

Yeah Russillo said it really well last week: It’s always over before you think it is.

The guy that really upsets me is Durant. As the new guy I expected him to revitalize them and supercharge the team when the other guys can’t muster it and yet he’s been by far their biggest coaster. Even worse than Draymond, who is a player that relies almost entirely on motor and hustle.

Yeah. There were some teams like the older Celtics/Lakers/Rockets teams that knew their window was small but some such as Shaq/Kobe Lakers and big 3 heat that were projected to win like 5-6 titles. Then real life happened. Same with the Warriors - after last year everyone thought we might as well take a nap until 2020 when those guys get old. Problem is, those multiple years of playoff runs tack on basketball years/mileage at a much higher rate than a typical season. The difference between 60 and 80 vs 80 and 100 is much bigger than it appears to be, and all those teams I mentioned had significant and crippling injuries throughout their RS and then in the playoffs. GS isn't any different with all 4 of their main guys out. Most of those teams had playoff series that went the distance the year before they fell apart, so we'll see if that plays out with their likely WCF opponent in Houston.

Durant...I don't like playing armchair psychologist, but it's possible he saw how easily they wiped everyone last year and settled himself into coast-mode knowing the Warriors could just snooze through the RS. Not really an indefensible thing to do - and he himself has been making deep playoff runs (albeit with 1 year off). So as long as he can turn that on-off switch to ON, it shouldn't be damning.

To build on this...

Do you think this makes what LeBron has done more impressive?
Do you think LeBron knows this?
Is there an advantage for LeBron changing casts every 3-4 years since 07?

In order:

1. Clearly yes
2. Yes
3. Yes

[MisterHibachi]

Changing teams after 4 years of runs is definitely an advantage in building team wide motivation again. It's damn near impossible for a team to be motivated 4+ years in a row going to the finals.