2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

[parsnips33]

Jokic clearly outplayed Curry on the regular season, then on the first round he faced a defense about as good as Boston's and he managed better offensive results (+4 points per 100) than GSW did vs Boston, with a much worse supporting cast, outplaying Curry H2H in the process.

He didn't prove himself? How? Literally faced the toughest competition avaliable in the first round. Is there such a massive gulf defensively between the two? Really, is there?

Meanwhile, 2016 Curry is injured for basically the entirety of the first two rounds (cause he happened to have a good enough team that it didn't matter) and he gets a pass. Of course he does. It reeks of mental gymnastics to cover personal preferences. Nothing more, nothing less.

What do you mean by "gets a pass"?

[The-Power]

Jokic clearly outplayed Curry on the regular season, then on the first round he faced a defense about as good as Boston's and he managed better offensive results (+4 points per 100) than GSW did vs Boston, with a much worse supporting cast, outplaying Curry H2H in the process.

He didn't prove himself? How? Literally faced the toughest competition avaliable in the first round. Is there such a massive gulf defensively between the two? Really, is there?

Not sure what points exactly you are arguing against but if it's related to the previous discussion, the point was that Jokic played only one series and we cannot simply assume that he would have continued to play as good throughout an entire playoff run. We also cannot prove that he wouldn't have continued to dominate but that's the entire point.

Also, the Warriors had a +10.5 rORTG (based on Denver's RS DRTG). Does that mean it would have been appropriate to call the Warriors offense a +10 rORTG postseason offense after one series? Could we claim that Jokic would have been utterly destroyed all throughout the playoffs on the defensive end? Or would sample size and the fact that is was just one opponent matter here?

To put it succinctly: anyone who has ever pointed to ‘sample size’ as an issue should never feel comfortable projecting an entire Finals run based on one series. That's it.

Meanwhile, 2016 Curry is injured for basically the entirety of the first two rounds (cause he happened to have a good enough team that it didn't matter) and he gets a pass. Of course he does. It reeks of mental gymnastics to cover personal preferences. Nothing more, nothing less.

Sorry, but if you read the conversation before and came away with the thought that ‘Curry gets a pass’, then this is what reeks of mental gymnastics to cover personal preferences. Or could you point me to that part of the debate? As far as I can see, the issue was always about extrapolating what Jokic would or would not have done in this year's playoffs based on one series, especially in a comparison with someone whose playoff run was tainted by what he did in the Finals (and not in previous rounds).

And if this refers to discussions outside this forum: where does Curry get a pass? That 2016 Finals is a key reason why people doubted or doubt Curry as a playoff performer. I really don't see how he gets a pass at all.

[Dutchball97]

Just to visualize how much the main POY candidates produced over the entire season I took a look at how their WS and VORP from the regular season and play-offs combined stacks up.

Butler: 13 WS, 6.2 VORP
Jokic: 15.9 WS, 10.4 VORP
Giannis: 14.6 WS, 8.8 VORP
Tatum: 11.8 WS, 6.4 VORP
Embiid: 12.9 WS, 6.7 VORP
Curry: 11.2 WS, 6.3 VORP
Luka: 9.5 WS, 7.5 VORP

Jokic comes out on top with Giannis right behind him in both. Luka is dead last in WS but somehow third in VORP. The rest seem reasonably close. +- might paint a completely different picture though.

Butler: +340 (245+95)
Jokic: +400 (444-44)
Giannis: +494 (397+97)
Tatum: +775 (667+108)
Embiid: +396 (368+28)
Curry: +630 (509+121)
Luka: +177 (146+31)

Tatum leads here with Curry in second. Luka last by a pretty big margin. I could see some very different lists based on which stats people put more value on. It's a shame there only seems to be play-off data for RAPTOR but not for EPM or LEBRON.

[dontcalltimeout]

Second Round Sendoffs

Two of the favorites bow out in the second round, each providing a different lesson. The Suns show the limit of playing your best basketball in the regular season, perhaps even of having a style of play that gives you the best odds against 29 teams, but not the best odds against the two or three contenders you really *have* to beat. The Buck's exit shows the perils of not seeking to improve or even keep your championship-level team. They ran out of serviceable wings and had too many players who could be exploited on one side of the ball.

For key offensive players, the playoffs ask questions, and we find out if they have answers. Chris Paul may have had covid, but Devin Booker did not look like a problem solver. Double teams befuddled him. Dallas, with their length on the wing, was the perfect team to go against them. Are the Suns ultimately an ensemble team who looks really good in the regular season but lacks another gear? How much should we value that second gear? The ability to elevate, not from simple shooting variance, but the ability to bring your best game, maximum aggression, decision-making, and defense, when your team most needs it. Does it outweigh steadier performance?

What about the other MVP candidates?

Joel Embiid

It wasn't long ago that the big man who missed his first two seasons and played 30 games his rookie year seemed like he might go the way of Greg Oden. Yet, it's difficult to say that Embiid has disappointed. Each year he comes back with new skills and polish on his moves. He is one of maybe two players who have made the post-up a valid primary offensive option in 2022. Embiid has the finesse game and delicate touch; he has power and sleight of hand. More agile and fluid than he has any right to be, the outside shot is a legitimate option now, and he's made himself into one of the league's tough shotmakers. Embiid's passing has improved. His turnovers are down. He has made strides in punishing double teams.

A few years ago I was a vocal proponent of Joel Embiid, though for his defensive impact rather than his offensive game. But the defense has slipped. As the lumbering big man has become more and more of a target, Embiid has become more lumbering. Perhaps it is injuries catching up to him; all year long, his fitness and stamina seemed to finally be worthy of the man's talent, except that playoff injuries are not freak occurrences when they happen every year. Play suffers, fitness suffers, and a top-heavy team topples over.

I was very impressed with Embiid's regular season but found his playoffs disappointing. Scoring is probably his strongest skill now, and it hasn't been as resilient as I'd like. For the past two seasons Embiid has averaged 33.7 points per 75 possessions, which has dropped to 27.75 per 75 in the playoffs. His assists peaked this season at 4.2 and fell to less than half of that in the playoffs. His box creation dropped from 10.8 to 3.9!

A comparison that comes to mind is Hakeem Olajuwon. A player's best offense and their best defense don't always line up, and the question I had for Embiid going into the playoffs was would he be able to be a DPOY-level defender while maintaining his offensive production? Unlike Hakeem, Embiid didn't bring his best game in the playoffs. His offense fell off and his defense, while providing more consistent effort than the regular season, still didn't look like his best self.

This is still a guy where his team usually wins his minutes in the playoffs, even when they lose, so there's a limit to how much I will ding him; but i'm a bit down on Embiid this year because I am starting to doubt he will ever have a healthy playoff run. For now, I think he will be just outside my top 5.

On the other hand, I'm more impressed with...


Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Even through the TV, you feel Giannis. He is The Thing on offense and Reed Richards on defense. Giannis has that ability -- LeBron had it too -- to dictate the terms of engagement on both ends of the court.

In the regular season: Giannis had a down year this year, right?? Sure he scored more than ever before 63.3% true shooting, and led one of the higher offensive ratings of his career. Yet, to many of us, it felt like the Bucks were on cruise control. Giannis was still trying to win each game, but it felt like this season, for the first time in a while, his intensity didn't rub off on everyone else. Perhaps they had been sated.

In the playoffs, a Middleton injury made advancing a gargantuan task. So, how much did Giannis show us? In terms of ability, he's still a guy who can "impose his will" on both sides of the court (I'm skeptical of that phrase "impose your will" because I think it gets used as a way to dumb down the sport by focusing only on star players, but for Giannis, with his motor and two-way dominance it feels more apt.)

Losing in the second round doesn't feel like much of an accomplishment, so how much do I weigh Giannis's level? I think he's in the upper upper tier of players I would draft for a playoff run. He's still a great scorer and puts pressure on the rim like no one else (except Ja); he's improved as a passer and playmaker, especially at making the early pass when he sees help; he's a dominant defensive rebounder. He's not as good of an isolation scorer as Embiid, Jokic, or Durant, but he's arguable the most useful defender in the league in the games that really matter.

Antetokounmpo's performance against Boston reminded me of LeBron's performance in 2015. The team looked at what they had and realized the only way they had a chance was to drag the game into the mud and out-defense Boston; it required Giannis to carry a greater a huge load on both ends. The efficiency wasn't there, and it's not the way you want to play if you have championship aspirations, but it was certainly impressive.

His game was still frustrating at times. The strides he seemed to have made in the regular season, as an off-ball player seemed to dissipate without Middleton's ball-handling. Some of that might be out of necessity, but some of it is just how Antetokounmpo is inclined to play when the chips are down. Still, the ability to elevate his game when it matters most is still there. His playoff offensive load was second only to Doncic, playoff AuPM loves him, and he had the among the best playoff Raptor scores among POY candidates (the on/off portion of Raptor loved him even more than the aggregate score).

I'm still thinking through how to weigh a second round exit against players that went further in the playoffs, but I am leaning towards rewarding my confidence in a player's level of play.

[Jaivl]

Jokic clearly outplayed Curry on the regular season, then on the first round he faced a defense about as good as Boston's and he managed better offensive results (+4 points per 100) than GSW did vs Boston, with a much worse supporting cast, outplaying Curry H2H in the process.

He didn't prove himself? How? Literally faced the toughest competition avaliable in the first round. Is there such a massive gulf defensively between the two? Really, is there?

Not sure what points exactly you are arguing against but if it's related to the previous discussion, the point was that Jokic played only one series and we cannot simply assume that he would have continued to play as good throughout an entire playoff run. We also cannot prove that he wouldn't have continued to dominate but that's the entire point.

It's not arguing against anything concrete, just how the tone of the discussion has changed ever since the Warriors got to the Finals.

Also, the Warriors had a +10.5 rORTG (based on Denver's RS DRTG). Does that mean it would have been appropriate to call the Warriors offense a +10 rORTG postseason offense after one series? Could we claim that Jokic would have been utterly destroyed all throughout the playoffs on the defensive end? Or would sample size and the fact that is was just one opponent matter here?

To put it succinctly: anyone who has ever pointed to ‘sample size’ as an issue should never feel comfortable projecting an entire Finals run based on one series. That's it.

I'm going to try and expand a bit, since I feel my message was not conveyed well enough. Apologize in advance because it's going to be chaotic, I'm in kind of a rush. I'm not talking at all about sample size.

As for Jokic's defense, YES, it's fair to take conclusions based on that one series. His defense clearly took a hit in my eyes. But most important is - how big of a hit? That's why I ask - is such a huge difference in value possible, referring strictly to an individual Curry vs Jokic comparison? Or is it, again, a complex issue where other variables like teammates have more importance? I'm not saying the answer is "no" 100%, but it feels hard to justify.

For the record, hate the argument of "Curry has shown he can be a part of a huge defense, Jokic has not, so that makes Curry a much better defender, making his value intrinsically higher as he has shown that he can lead an elite offense and be part of elite defenses" I've seen before here. First, it kind of glosses over every historical precedent we know about point differential/value of an individual:

Spoiler:

Taking it to an extreme, using the 01-15 Engelmann RAPM dataset:
01-15 Gooden D: -1.21
01-15 Stoudemire D: -1.29
01-15 Kidd D: +1.24
01-15 Holiday D: +2.09

About 3 points of difference between some of the worst big man defenders ever (which Jokic is not) and some of the best guard defenders ever (which Curry is not)

Second, it doesn't really compute logically? Since when is lack of positive proof a proof of the negative? Kinda have the feeling the goalposts are going to constantly be moved for Jokic, as long as he doesn't get a decent team around him. Of course, we could drop parallels all day: "Jerry West has never shown he can be part of a good defensive team", "Dirk has never been shown he can be part of a good defensive team, so...", Garnett, Hakeem, etc.

"But we don't have a guarantee he could keep it up through the Finals" - no ****! Of course we don't. We're playing with imperfect information, that's the name of the game. We don't have a guarantee Curry could even get to the playoffs with a change in context, and it would be mad ridiculous if I used that to discredit with actually happened.

And it's not a sample size problem. Sample size is a concern for guys like Butler, that changed by a huge margin in the playoffs, during short stretches. Durant as well. Jokic has been basically the same all season long. Solving the best defense (ex-aequo) on the league is just the icing on the cake.

As far as I can see, the issue was always about extrapolating what Jokic would or would not have done in this year's playoffs based on one series

No. The issue is punishing Jokic for not having a Finals run, being that he objetively did not get a chance to do so due to external factors.

To sum up,

We have a healthy sample that shows Curry can maintain his production against the toughest of defenses, and that elevates him on my eyes - okay
Curry has shown he can lead a team to the championship, unlike Jokic, so he's better - not okay

It's not exclusive to Curry this season, mind you. I've pushed back against this line of thought quite a few times already (Harden and Giannis being recent examples). Hell, it's funny, I had Curry as my #1 last year, above Jokic and Giannis. And now the situation is reversed...

_

What do you mean by "gets a pass"?

This:

As far as I can see, the issue was always about extrapolating what Jokic would or would not have done in this year's playoffs based on one series, especially in a comparison with someone whose playoff run was tainted by what he did in the Finals (and not in previous rounds).

Curry's playoff run was tainted much before the Finals. By not playing on two rounds. Again, he gets a pass because his team was good enough for it to not matter.

And yes, I do think there's bias involved. Some of the most intelligent and thoughtful posters here (Doc, yourself) really like Curry. Feel like this time they are working backwards from the admittedly great results.

[jalengreen]

There's a lot of focus on defense, so just going to mention some regular season offensive numbers for a moment.

O-EPM
Jokic: +7.4 (1st)
Curry +5.4 (5th)

O-LEBRON
Jokic: +5.7 (1st)
Curry: +4.0 (5th)

O-RAPTOR
Jokic: +8.5 (1st)
Curry: +6.2 (3rd)

RS On/Off
Jokic: +10.0
Curry: +5.8

RS On-Court ORtg
Jokic: 118.8
Curry: 115.8

[eminence]

I feel I've been pretty consistent on my position through the season with regards to the top players. Tatum/Celtics turning it around dramatically midseason probably the main point of midseason change. Always high but not as high as many on Jokic (great player, not a top tier ATG peak - I'm curious where folks wind up putting him on the peak list, though I'm not participating), always above most on Curry (contender for best player in the league, missed some games), middling on Giannis/Embiid (half step behind the first two based on performance).

[Doctor MJ]

I'm curious what data you're looking at.

If you look at total shots defended, he's at the very top of the list with only Vuc and Jokic close to him. When you look at percentage against he and Thybulle race away from everyone else. Combined, its just an enormous lead over anyone else.

He's 1st in defensive RAPTOR
His on/off dwarfs the other DPOY candidates in terms of how the defense performs with him on versus off. He's at minus 7.2. Bam next closest at minus 4.
He's 2nd in the league on pps against to Robert Williams but again defends way more possessions
best defensive rebounding percentage
2nd in defensive LEBRON


And even the perimeter which is where he gets dinged, he defended over 5 3's a game and shooters only made 33% against him. Only Bam does better, but this is right in line or better than Smart, Draymond, Bridges, Giannis.


Lots of data.

You present a compelling set of facts...but he does have his weaknesses. If I were to tell you that I felt like Draymond, Giannis & Smart were all less exploitable by stronger perimeter attack than Gobert, would you disagree?

[Texas Chuck]

I'm curious what data you're looking at.

If you look at total shots defended, he's at the very top of the list with only Vuc and Jokic close to him. When you look at percentage against he and Thybulle race away from everyone else. Combined, its just an enormous lead over anyone else.

He's 1st in defensive RAPTOR
His on/off dwarfs the other DPOY candidates in terms of how the defense performs with him on versus off. He's at minus 7.2. Bam next closest at minus 4.
He's 2nd in the league on pps against to Robert Williams but again defends way more possessions
best defensive rebounding percentage
2nd in defensive LEBRON


And even the perimeter which is where he gets dinged, he defended over 5 3's a game and shooters only made 33% against him. Only Bam does better, but this is right in line or better than Smart, Draymond, Bridges, Giannis.


Lots of data.

You present a compelling set of facts...but he does have his weaknesses. If I were to tell you that I felt like Draymond, Giannis & Smart were all less exploitable by stronger perimeter attack than Gobert, would you disagree?

No. But I could say that about any other number of players. He's a center. None of those players can approach his rim protection. And we know that's still extremely valuable.

[The-Power]

Appreciate the constructive response, Jaivl! I don't want to go into it too deep, because I don't actually think we are too far away from each other.

Since when is lack of positive proof a proof of the negative?

At least as far as I'm concerned, that was not my point. On the contrary. My initial response was to a post that in essence expressed that Jokic would not have dropped off this much, and my point was that we cannot say this with any kind of certainty. We can believe it and try to justify it with sound arguments and I'm certainly not trying to convince anyone that he indeed would have dropped off as much; but there is simply no certainty because it involves a counterfactual. Lack of positive proof is just that: lack of positive proof. And that limits our projections and conclusions. That being said, Jokic not advancing obviously also doesn't prove that he simply couldn't have done it in better circumstances, or that there is something that inherently prevented him from doing so, and it certainly doesn't prove that he would have struggled going forward.

And it's not a sample size problem. Sample size is a concern for guys like Butler, that changed by a huge margin in the playoffs, during short stretches. Durant as well. Jokic has been basically the same all season long. Solving the best defense (ex-aequo) on the league is just the icing on the cake.

Of course Curry was also ‘the same’ all season long in 2016 and solved the Thunder but could not solve the Cavaliers. This could have happened to Jokic as well in a longer playoff run. Is this likely? Perhaps not, but we cannot simply pretend that we know for sure.

To be clear: I am not taking anything away from Jokic this year. He clearly had the best RS and he did what he could in the playoffs. His defense has been a bit of a concern in that one series but clearly nowhere near enough to stain an otherwise marvelous season. But I'm also not just going to be pretend as if this one playoff series allows us to extrapolate that he certainly would have been able to carry this level into the Finals and evaluate him based on that extrapolation.

It is what it is: a marvelous season in which he could not prove himself in a long playoff run because his team was simply overmatched. But of course this is nothing that we should hold against him in any way; but it also means that we cannot give him credit for it this year either.

Curry has shown he can lead a team to the championship, unlike Jokic, so he's better - not okay

Completely agreed. That was never my belief.

Curry's playoff run was tainted much before the Finals. By not playing on two rounds. Again, he gets a pass because his team was good enough for it to not matter.

The injury is a fair point. If you heavily weight availability, you clearly have to dock him for it. But frankly, that's not the arguments I see floating around. The arguments I usually read are rather: ‘Curry's 2016 playoff run has been poor because look at how he struggled in the Finals’ and not ‘Curry's 2016 playoff has been poor because he missed some games in the first and early second round’.

And to be clear: it's fair to point out both the injury time and the Finals struggles. They are part of this run, and that's what made it subpar. I have absolutely no issue with someone holding both against Curry in 2016.

I merely illustrated my point about the sample by pointing out that if the Warriors had lost against OKC in the WCF, Curry's run may have been remembered more fondly – à la ‘yes, injuries hurt him but otherwise this was MVP Curry on the court’. So I wanted to caution others to not look at one great early series in a loss from Player A, compare it to Player B with one great early series in a win and a poor series the next round, and conclude that Player B has been clearly worse and it could have never happened to Player B.

It also touches on a more philosophical question. Imagine Player A had two great series and lost in the second round to Player B who had two equally great series. Player B then has a mediocre* third series that was clearly a step down from before and loses. Player A has therefore had better playoff performances on average, but is it really fair to hold him in a higher regard than Player B who was equally impressive for as many series as Player A played and only performed worse when Player A was already out? To me, that just feels wrong.

*I used ‘mediocre’ rather than ‘bad’ because if you're actively hurting your team or you have been completely figured out, I can see why this would be held against you. So let's assume the player did not hurt his team but also wasn't a (notable) positive.

[The-Power]

Anyone up for listing their shortlist of candidates for the different awards? Especially the less prominent ones like Executive of the Year. I have come up with a first-idea shortlist but I'm sure I missed some candidates.

[Doctor MJ]

If you look at total shots defended, he's at the very top of the list with only Vuc and Jokic close to him. When you look at percentage against he and Thybulle race away from everyone else. Combined, its just an enormous lead over anyone else.

He's 1st in defensive RAPTOR
His on/off dwarfs the other DPOY candidates in terms of how the defense performs with him on versus off. He's at minus 7.2. Bam next closest at minus 4.
He's 2nd in the league on pps against to Robert Williams but again defends way more possessions
best defensive rebounding percentage
2nd in defensive LEBRON


And even the perimeter which is where he gets dinged, he defended over 5 3's a game and shooters only made 33% against him. Only Bam does better, but this is right in line or better than Smart, Draymond, Bridges, Giannis.


Lots of data.

You present a compelling set of facts...but he does have his weaknesses. If I were to tell you that I felt like Draymond, Giannis & Smart were all less exploitable by stronger perimeter attack than Gobert, would you disagree?

No. But I could say that about any other number of players. He's a center. None of those players can approach his rim protection. And we know that's still extremely valuable.

It is valuable no doubt, but we're not just talking about hypotheticals when we're talking about perimeter attack. Bigs across the league are having a reckoning right now as forces continue to drive the game in the direction of smaller (or at least more agile) 5's. Gobert isn't the only one being affected here, but he does seem more affected than others mentioned.

[Doctor MJ]

So, some short-list type thoughts:

POY - I feel like there's a Big 7 here:

Antetokounmpo
Butler
Curry
Doncic
Embiid
Jokic
Tatum

Feel like people likely have their head around this for themselves so I think I'll refrain from making cases for guys here.

OPOY - I find myself gravitating to Jokic, Curry & Doncic. When looking to consider someone from the East, KD & Butler come to mind.

Big debate for me is between Jokic & Curry. Jokic clearly has the regular season edge, but Curry felt impossible to solve for against all comers (and no, "solving for" doesn't mean putting enough pressure on him that his teammates get-off).

DPOY - I'm on record with this as a particularly brutal year for this award. Guys on my mind are Draymond, Giannis, Gobert, Bam & all the key Celtics.

I'll say that I'd lean Draymond for the top spot at this point. We saw how good he was to start the year and end the year. To me he remains the gold standard for versatile defense, and with his team winning the chip, it's hard for me to really care about the time missed to injury all that much.

ROY - Barnes, Mobley & Cunningham are the obvious big 3. Herb Jones would the other guy on my mind.

MIP - Some guys to consider:

Bane
Bridges (Mikal)
Bridges (Miles)
Brunson
Garland
JJJ
Maxey
Morant
Payton
Poole
Simons
Wiggins

The Grizzlies situation is the weirdest thing. You've got the guy who actually won MIP in Morant, who "popped" both in box score and in eyeball, like no one else. You've got JJJ who just might be the per-minute DPOY. And then you've got Bane, who went from being a bench guy to the rock that didn't just keep the team afloat without Ja, but helped them seem to get better whenever Morant played bench. Memphis has some things to figure out, but the rest of the league should be very nervous.

Warriors similarly can point to a lot of players improving. I mentioned Payton, Poole & Wiggins here. Poole's the one who got attention for this award in the regular season, and I think I'm inclined to have him as the top Warrior candidate, but it depends on how you see the award.

Last I'll give a particular shout out to Darius Garland, who has my new favorite nickname "Sleeve Nash". Love watching him play.

6MOY - Guys to consider? Well, in the regular season award it went Herro, Love, Johnson, Clarkson, Kennard, Bogdanovic

I also tend to look at the 6th man candidates for the big playoff teams, and that adds Otto Porter & Grant Williams into the mix.

Porter's an interesting candidate because he was more of a 7th Man than a 6th Man - next year, if the depth charts remain the same, Jordan Poole would be the expected 6th Man candidate, but due to Klay's missed time this year, Poole isn't eligible here.

The fact that the Warriors have someone like Porter not just as a bench guy, but not even their lead bench guy, is really something. I don't think it's crazy at all to think that the Warriors' #7 guy is better than everyone else's 6th Man, which really shows you the kind of depth GS was able to have this year.

But something I do tend to look at in 6MOY is MPG, and when you're playing less than 20 MPG when push comes to shove, to me that puts you at a major disadvantage compared to guys in the 24+ MPG range.

COY - Some names and background:

Bickerstaff (CLE) - team was unexpected quite good before injuries building around unorthodox players
Donovan (CHI) - seemed to get the team humming
Finch (MIN) - seemed to make progress with the team
Green (NOP) - noteworthy turnaround he led this year in what seemed like a lost season
Jenkins (MEM) - one of the most remarkable player development jobs I can recall seeing (JJJ, Morant, Bane)
Kerr (GSW) - has approached his job completely differently than any other coach, and is back on top again
Kidd (DAL) - team seemed to take a step forward this year
Malone (DEN) - when we credit Jokic with keeping the team afloat, I do think the coach deserves some credit too
Nurse (TOR) - highly respected basketball brain, team felt up and coming again
Spoelstra (MIA) - another superb year
Williams (PHX) - a dream regular season
Udoka (BOS) - the most remarkable turnaround I think I've ever watched unfold

EOY - some names and background:

Myers (GSW) - Acquired Porter, Payton & Bjelica, drafted Kuminga & Moody
Stevens (BOS) - Replaced self with Udoka as coach, acquired Horford, White & Theis
Riley (MIA) - Traded for Lowry, signed Tucker, Oladipo, Strus, Vincent
Harrison (DAL) - Hired Kidd, traded away Porzingis, received Dinwiddie, signed Bullock
Kleiman (MEM) - Won NBA's EOY...Acquired Steven Adams. Apparent disconnect there, worth discussion.
Morey (PHI) - Signed Danny Green, traded away Simmons & Curry, received Harden
Ujiri (TOR) - Drafted Barnes in surprise move, signed Trent
Karnisovas (CHI) - Acquired DeRozan, Ball & Caruso
Altman (CLE) - Signed Allen, drafted Mobley (as expected), acquired Markkanen & Levert
Griffin (NOP) - Fired Van Gundy, hired Green, let go Lonzo, drafted/discovered Jones & Alvarado, acquired McCollum & Nance
Pritchard (IND) - Fired Bjorkgren, hired Carlisle, got Haliburton & assets for Sabonis & Levert
Presti (OKC) - Drafted Giddey, got draft assets

[Doctor MJ]

Jokic clearly outplayed Curry on the regular season, then on the first round he faced a defense about as good as Boston's and he managed better offensive results (+4 points per 100) than GSW did vs Boston, with a much worse supporting cast, outplaying Curry H2H in the process.

Felt a need to speak to this:

While Denver posted a higher ORtg against GS, than GS did against Boston, consider the on-court numbers for Jokic & Curry in those series:

Jokic 110.9
Curry 115.3.

While you can certainly argue that Curry's supporting cast advantage is worth enough to still make Jokic's number more impressive, the offense that performed best by a significant margin was the one with Curry.

[jalengreen]

Stevens is lookin like a good option for EOY. Finals team with two huge acquisitions in Horford/White and the hiring of Udoka. Myers might end up looking better in the long-term with Kuminga/Moody but that's more of a question mark. Porter and Payton were definitely big pieces to bring in so I think Myers might still make my ballot.

I think Griffin deserves some praise as well. Green had a good first year as head coach and acquiring *three* rookies (Herb,Alvarado,Murphy) who were able to get significant minutes while pushing a 64-win Suns team to six games felt very impressive. Along with McCollum who wasn't great in the postseason but was a huge reason the Pelicans even made it into the playoffs.

[Dutchball97]

I might just be the only one to throw Franz Wagner a vote on my ROY ballot. Barnes and Mobley are the clear top 2 in some order but I was left slightly more impressed over the season by Wagner than Cade or Herb. When just looking at how they did this season most people would probably go Herb, while the crowd that looks for potential would prefer Cade but Wagner had a great season and great potential in the same vein as Mobley and Barnes.

So I've got my ROY ballot ready. For POY, OPOY, DPOY and MIP I generally know which players I'm considering but I've still got to sort out the exact order and in some cases who gets the last spot. Since I'm not voting on the non-player categories (I don't spend time evaluating coaches or executives during the season so I doubt a 10 minute brainstorm session would result in meaningful contribution) that leaves only 6MOY where I've still got to take a good look at it. Really nobody instantly jumps to mind yet so not sure if I'll have the entire ballot done today but maybe.

[SpreeS]

Jokic defrtg in last 3 PO seasons

2020 119.0
2021 124.7
2022 125.4

Guy is playing on the most important defensively position and he is really really bad at it. He is the main target for opponents perimeter players.

[The-Power]

Awesome write-up, Doc, and I'll take the opportunity to put out my initial thoughts around your overview.

So, some short-list type thoughts:

POY - I feel like there's a Big 7 here:

Antetokounmpo
Butler
Curry
Doncic
Embiid
Jokic
Tatum

Feel like people likely have their head around this for themselves so I think I'll refrain from making cases for guys here.

Agreed. To me, the order currently is something like this:

Jokic
Curry
------
Giannis
------
Tatum
Luka
Embiid
Butler

The serious debate for the top spot to me involves Jokic and Curry. Jokic had the best RS and Giannis, to me, has not made up this gap in the playoffs, so I find it hard to come up with an argument for Giannis. The only way to do so for me would be to punish Jokic for inherent flaws in his game that came out in the playoffs (defense), but I wouldn't go that far myself and Giannis' second round may also be used to speak about a flaw in his game (teams with size that can shrink the floor) and knock his resilience.

Since the only argument for someone else has to be about the playoffs, to me that leaves Curry. He has to make up quite some ground from the RS but I have Curry's RS ranked around 4-5th, so it clearly is not insurmountable. Curry had a great run and especially his last two series showed that can now figure out even great defenses quite consistently. Was this enough to top Jokic? Personally, I still lean towards Jokic but I'm open to be convinced otherwise.

Then, there is a gap. Embiid and Tatum had the best RS, Luka and Butler arguably the best playoff runs (certainly better than Embiid, Tatum is more of a discussion because his Finals just weigh heavily).
– I'm pretty firm on having Butler last of his group. His RS was really mediocre, although I am willing to cut him at least some slack as Miami continued to be successful and he didn't need to go all out. His playoffs were obviously really good. But I will say that even with his really strong run, I just didn't see that teams were willing to try everything to stop him. It seems like often teams are content to let him operate in regular coverages. He had a great impact at the team-level still, so this makes it tougher to evaluate (this clearly is not a ‘he got his but his team didn't perform well’ situation) but something to keep in mind. Either way, it was difficult for him to make up for his subpar RS and the fact that he managed to enter the top 7 is already quite the accomplishment.
– Tatum I feel most comfortable having in my top 5. He clearly had an excellent RS. Perhaps Embiid was still better but it's at least debatable. He was clearly the driver of this good Boston team, especially on offense but he was also very important on defense and he played 76 games. The games played are important because had he played the same amount as Embiid, Boston perhaps doesn't even have HCA in the first round of the playoffs. I also think his playoffs made up the possible RS gap. If we compare the first two rounds in the POs, Tatum makes up quite a bit of ground and he continues to do so with his ECF. His Finals don't add much if any value but that's still enough for me.
– So the debate is Embiid vs. Doncic. Clearly better RS versus clearly better POs. Considering that Doncic turned it up in the RS when it was needed and Dallas still made the playoffs with HCA, I am inclined to not punish him too harshly for the first weeks of the season but he had to make up quite a bit of ground nonetheless. For now, I think he may have done just enough with the way he figured out the Suns and led the team to an unlikely victory, along with two other good – but not great – playoff rounds. It's tough to assess the impact of him missing three games in the first round, though. Perhaps he could have been ready after two games if needed but it is something to ponder on. I have to think about this more and would like to hear the thoughts of everyone else.

OPOY - I find myself gravitating to Jokic, Curry & Doncic. When looking to consider someone from the East, KD & Butler come to mind.

Big debate for me is between Jokic & Curry. Jokic clearly has the regular season edge, but Curry felt impossible to solve for against all comers (and no, "solving for" doesn't mean putting enough pressure on him that his teammates get-off).

Agreed. I would have Jokic #1, Curry #2 and probably Doncic #3. How do we feel about Ja Morant? Lots of talk that his team has performed better without him but that's mostly because his defense has been putrid and drags the team down. Trae had an argument after the RS but he's one of the few that are actively hurt by the POs because it did look like he just couldn't figure out that defense at all and his impact took a nosedive, so that raises a lot of concerns and I can't possibly have him on the OPOY ballot this year.

DPOY - I'm on record with this as a particularly brutal year for this award. Guys on my mind are Draymond, Giannis, Gobert, Bam & all the key Celtics.

I'll say that I'd lean Draymond for the top spot at this point. We saw how good he was to start the year and end the year. To me he remains the gold standard for versatile defense, and with his team winning the chip, it's hard for me to really care about the time missed to injury all that much.

Good list. I'd add Jackson Jr. to it. Only other player on my shortlist was Mikal but I think he's rather an HM. Similar to Wiggins who was better in the POs but worse in the RS. I am currently torn between Draymond and Gobert for the top spot, and the third spot is wide open. Giannis, Bam, Smart, Williams and Jackson Jr. are my main contenders. The Celtics group is interesting because I think Williams has been their most impactful defender on the court, but I'm unsure how to evaluate Smart's role in leading this defense vocally and in terms of general leadership on and off the court. Williams was hugely impactful but how much of that was allowed by the other Celtics being so good and versatile defensively that they allowed him to play in that one role he is so devastating at, and how would we evaluate that?

ROY - Barnes, Mobley & Cunningham are the obvious big 3. Herb Jones would the other guy on my mind.

My top 3 as well with Barnes edging out Mobley, and then a bit of a gap for #3 (Cade). I'm open to considering Herb as well, and would also throw in the name Franz Wagner – he had a great Rookie season and made an impact. I can see having him in over Cade, it's certainly up for debate. The fact that Mobley and Barnes were important contributors on winning teams matters enough to me to have them #1 and #2, though.

MIP - Some guys to consider:

Bane
Bridges (Mikal)
Bridges (Miles)
Brunson
Garland
JJJ
Maxey
Morant
Payton
Poole
Simons
Wiggins

Toughest award for me. I lean towards Garland for his improvement to All-Star territory and a wide open field behind him. I'll have to think about this one a lot more. I'm generally hesitant to reward 2nd year players unless that improvement was really unexpected – but I also don't rule them out either. It's also an open question to me how we evaluate skill improvements versus mental improvements (i.e. ability to play your role better without necessarily acquiring new skills) – the latter may be more impactful, but also more difficult to evaluate as there is a lot of context involved.

6MOY - Guys to consider? Well, in the regular season award it went Herro, Love, Johnson, Clarkson, Kennard, Bogdanovic

I also tend to look at the 6th man candidates for the big playoff teams, and that adds Otto Porter & Grant Williams into the mix.

Agreed with the playoffs point. That's key – if you can give your team a boost off the bench in the playoffs, that matters a lot and can swing series. Still not sure who I'd vote for here. Since you mention OPJ: I actually think GPII has a better case. He was a key swing factor in [edit: the last] series (Dallas and Boston). He has that special ability to come in and almost always make an impact. +11.9 on/off net rating in the playoffs was not a fluke, although of course helped by line-up combinations and controlled playing time.

I really don't think there are any awesome candidates this year. I can already feel that no matter who I end up having on my ballot, I'm going to question my choices.

COY - Some names and background:

Bickerstaff (CLE) - team was unexpected quite good before injuries building around unorthodox players
Donovan (CHI) - seemed to get the team humming
Finch (MIN) - seemed to make progress with the team
Green (NOP) - noteworthy turnaround he led this year in what seemed like a lost season
Jenkins (MEM) - one of the most remarkable player development jobs I can recall seeing (JJJ, Morant, Bane)
Kerr (GSW) - has approached his job completely differently than any other coach, and is back on top again
Kidd (DAL) - team seemed to take a step forward this year
Malone (DEN) - when we credit Jokic with keeping the team afloat, I do think the coach deserves some credit too
Nurse (TOR) - highly respected basketball brain, team felt up and coming again
Spoelstra (MIA) - another superb year
Williams (PHX) - a dream regular season
Udoka (BOS) - the most remarkable turnaround I think I've ever watched unfold

So, I'm not sure if I'm biased here but I would have Kerr in a tier by himself. Having watched him closely, he was been absolutely magnificent at making adjustments in the playoffs, both during and between games – from line-up changes, to defensive strategies, to offensive tweaks to his favorite approach. He also found perfect roles for GPII, Wiggins and some others. This is on top of his usual impact on team chemistry (keeping everyone engaged), and him handling player relationships well (integrating Klay, keeping Poole engaged despite being in and out of line-ups, finding minutes even for the end-of-bench players and Rookies). He also deserves huge props for hiring elite assistants that challenge him – especially regarding Atkinson, it was Kerr who mentioned many times that he wanted to have someone in the room who challenges him and thinks differently, and by all accounts our assistants were important to our season (as evidenced by all the interest they sparked in HC searches). Can't praise him enough for his willingness to hire the best people, be challenged, and happily share all the credit with his staff.

I think I'd have Spo #2 tentatively. Just incredible what he did with this roster, he just finds ways to have players contribute beyond their talent level and play superb defense, along with his adjustments in the playoffs. Third spot is open. Udoka, Bickerstaff and Nurse are on my shortlist. Kidd and Jenkins are also good options. Williams is the most difficult case – brilliant team in the RS and that matters, but that playoff exit really leaves a bad taste in my mouth.

EOY - some names and background:

Myers (GSW) - Acquired Porter, Payton & Bjelica, drafted Kuminga & Moody
Stevens (BOS) - Replaced self with Udoka as coach, acquired Horford, White & Theis
Riley (MIA) - Traded for Lowry, signed Tucker, Oladipo, Strus, Vincent
Harrison (DAL) - Hired Kidd, traded away Porzingis, received Dinwiddie, signed Bullock
Kleiman (MEM) - Won NBA's EOY...Acquired Steven Adams. Apparent disconnect there, worth discussion.
Morey (PHI) - Signed Danny Green, traded away Simmons & Curry, received Harden
Ujiri (TOR) - Drafted Barnes in surprise move, signed Trent
Karnisovas (CHI) - Acquired DeRozan, Ball & Caruso
Altman (CLE) - Signed Allen, drafted Mobley (as expected), acquired Markkanen & Levert
Griffin (NOP) - Fired Van Gundy, hired Green, let go Lonzo, drafted/discovered Jones & Alvarado, acquired McCollum & Nance
Pritchard (IND) - Fired Bjorkgren, hired Carlisle, got Haliburton & assets for Sabonis & Levert
Presti (OKC) - Drafted Giddey, got draft assets

I love Stevens here. The willingness to replace himself and hit the nail on the coaching selection deserves huge props. He also had a clear hand in the Celtics playoffs run with White and Horford being key contributors.

Myers deserves praise for his refusal to go all-in for a star and mortgage the future that way, which was the right decision but unpopular with fans around the league – and even many GSW fans wanted an all-in trade. But we won with depth and chemistry, on the back of Curry (offense) and Green (defense) around great fits. But I'm not sure if Myers or Lacob deserve more credit here. Also, choosing Payton II over Bradley was a home run and reportedly went against the preferences of the star players at the time. He also filled out the roster nicely with OPJ and Bjelica, although I'm not sure how much credit should go to him for that.

Ujiri is, as usual, another candidate. Drafting Barnes was not very popular but looks to be the correct choice, and Trent helped them as well. He also kept Siakam (I was a skeptic) and build a very competitive team around him this season. But was this impactful enough for the EOY award?

Griffin had a great draft, he brought in pieces to help the team win, and I also think we may only really appreciate his moves once Zion in back because I think he did a really admirable job to build around him. I'll have to think about his candidacy a bit more but I think he at least deserves consideration.

I also love the shout-out to Pritchard! I love what Indiana has done. It's difficult to compare executives on teams with completely different directions, but to trade Sabonis for Haliburton I think was a marvelous move that will help the team tremendously going forward, and convincing Carlisle was another key achievement.

Tentatively, I think I'd have Stevens #1 with Pritchard and Myers filling out my ballot. But I'm open to considering others as well – it's one of the toughest awards to hand out, imo.

[Narigo]

Winning bias is one hell of a drug.

I think Curry is top 5 but I feel like he's clearly below Jokic Giannis, and Embiid. Those guys had much better regular seasons than Curry did. I think he right there with Tatum and Donicic if we just used the regular season but postseason wise I'll take him over both

Curry while great in the first month in the regular season, where he was the favorite to win MVP had a shooting slump right there after, fell off the MVP conversation completely had one of the worst shooting seasons of his prime. I just don't think he done enough to put him number 1 or even top 3 if we're considering the season as a whole

What about his superior on-off numbers in the RS compared to Giannis/Embiid?

And didn't you find Embiid's playoffs disappointing?

why just on-off
Giannis and Embiid has Curry beat in EPM, BPM, LEBRON and RAPTOR

[Texas Chuck]

A Since you mention OPJ: I actually think GPII has a better case. He was a key swing factor in multiple series (Dallas and Boston). He has that special ability to come in and almost always make an impact. +11.9 on/off net rating in the playoffs was not a fluke, although of course helped by line-up combinations and controlled playing time.
.

Right now I think we are going to see multiple ballots that have a Warrior at the top of basically every award save MIP, and some may even try and squeeze Wiggins or Payton on there and ROY where there is no candidate at all.

Which makes sense in that they are the champions. Typically that means you team was well-constructed(EOY), well-coached(COY), you have one of the best players(POY) who are good at one end or the other (OPOY and DPOY), get help off the bench(6MOY) and rarely lean on rookies. I'm certainly going to have a number of Warriors high on my ballots.

But I'm confused here. Gary Payton II not only didn't swing the Dallas series, he didn't even play in it.

He played 17 mpg in both the RS and the playoffs and only played in 12 playoff games. I just don't know that he would be anyone's candidate at all if not for being a Warrior.

I feel like a bad person because I feel like I'm constantly pushing back against Warrior hype in this thread. But I also feel like I have to because of the overwhelming praise for all things Warriors.