RealGM Top 100 List -- 2011

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#541 » by penbeast0 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 5:14 am

bastillon wrote:
Note that if you take the many playoff matchups against Russell out of Wilt's resume, his playoff series win % of .810 is the same as that of MIchael Jordan (though for a smaller sample size).


against pathetic competition and most often with vast talent advantage on his team. name one series when Wilt beat stronger team and overachieved.


Same challenge goes for Michael Jordan. Some great performances against better teams . . . but in losing series. He never beat a team clearly superior to his. Now, if you want me to analyze the teams he faced from 1-4 against the Warriors from 1-4, that's probably doable but there wasn't anyone with talently remotely close to Wilt at center other than Russell . . . that's the point.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#542 » by bastillon » Fri Feb 10, 2012 5:43 am

MJ beat many all-time teams with strong SRS and HOFamers leading the charge. what elite teams did Wilt beat exactly ?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#543 » by penbeast0 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 5:58 am

penbeast0 wrote:
bastillon wrote:
Note that if you take the many playoff matchups against Russell out of Wilt's resume, his playoff series win % of .810 is the same as that of MIchael Jordan (though for a smaller sample size).


against pathetic competition and most often with vast talent advantage on his team. name one series when Wilt beat stronger team and overachieved.


Same challenge goes for Michael Jordan. Some great performances against better teams . . . but in losing series. He never beat a team clearly superior to his. Now, if you want me to analyze the teams he faced from 1-4 against the Warriors from 1-4, that's probably doable but there wasn't anyone with talently remotely close to Wilt at center other than Russell . . . that's the point.



Look at the Warriors early on. Philly had PG Guy Rodgers who was a good playmaker but poor defender and shooter, against Tom Gola and Phil Arizin -- both terrific players in their prime 5 years before, and a series of weak PFs (Woody Saulsberry, Andy Johnson, Tom Meschery -- who was skilled but a pothead) plus little bench other than Al Attles.

Their main early rival Syracuse had Red Kerr at center who was a solid center but got stronger faster. Larry Costello at PG was better than Rodgers, Hal Greer and George Yardley were a better pain on the wing where Philly was strong, and Dolph Schayes was still an All-Star at PF; plus Dick Barnett off the bench to match Attles. When Yardley went to the NBL in 61, Dave Gambee was an okay replacement.

When the Warriors went West, they lost Arizin and Gola, replacing them with the immortal Wayne Hightower and Gary Phillips plus they added Nate Thurmond as a C-F either off the bench in 64 or trying to play PF in 65, but they ran into St. Louis with guards Lenny Wilkens and Richie Guerin, forwards Cliff Hagan and Bob Pettit, and center Zelmo Beaty plus Bill Bridges off the bench -- clearly more talented unless Wilt dominates the series. So, to get some talent around Thurmond (and for money reasons) they traded Wilt.

So early Wilt, the one that consistently gets slammed for his impact, was playing two very talented teams plus the Celtics in all his early playoff series.

In 65, Wilt goes to the Sixers where he has Greer, the aging Costello then later Wali Jones at guard, Luke Jackson and Chet Walker plus later Billy Cunningham at center . . . an excellent collection of talent that he actually beat the Celtics with once.

In 65 and 67, they beat the Royals with Oscar, Jerry Lucas, one time All-Star MVP Adrian Smith, and aging scorer Jack Twyman, together with Wayne Embry or Oscar, Lucas, Smith, Happy Hairston, the weak Connie Dierking at center but a deep bench including Bob Love and Jon McGlocklin-- a team that is more talented 1-4 than the pre-Cunningham Sixers. They also beat the Nate Thurmond/Rick Barry Warrior in 67, and the Bellamy/Willis Reed/Cazzie Russell/Dick Van Arsdale/Walt Frazier Knicks with Bill Bradley and Dick Barnett off the bench in 68.

Again, a lot of big names from the era; Wilt made his teams more talented but they weren't better than anyone they played with a Connie Dierking type center replacing him.

With the Lakers, Wilt beat the Warriors (no Rick Barry but Thurmond, LaRusso, Mullins, Attles, etc.) and the Hawks (Beaty had Lou Hudson and Joe Calwell on the wing, Bill Bridges and Paul Silas at PF, Walt Hazzard at PG); then the next year Phoenix (Connie Hawkins, Dick Van Arsdale, Gail Goodridge, Paul Silas with Jim Fox at C), and the Hawks again before losing the the Knicks (now with DeBusschere instead of Bellamy) . . .

I'm out of time and energy but have taken you up to the Lakers championship year . . . you can look the rest up but these were the stars of his day and generally were stronger than the teams Wilt played on from 1-4. You are right that none was as talented as Wilt's teams but that's because no one was as talented as Wilt -- just like the teams the Bulls beat were often more talented than the Bulls if you took away Michael Jordan despite the Bulls showing they were still a good team when Jordan took off to play baseball.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#544 » by Dipper 13 » Fri Feb 10, 2012 6:57 am

What I don't get is how one is completely against the boxscore in the regular season, opting for per possession numbers of the team (ORtg, DRtg) but in evaluating the post-season they neglect this concept (preferring to rely almost exclusively on the boxscore). Here I thought possessions mattered more in the playoffs.



and the Bellamy/Willis Reed/Cazzie Russell/Dick Van Arsdale/Walt Frazier Knicks with Bill Bradley and Dick Barnett off the bench in 68.




viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1147670&start=60#p29713745

No doubt the '68 Sixers were the best single season team to not win. It was deemed remarkable that they even got to the Division Finals vs. Boston with all the injuries (Articles in above link). There were times during the NY series when the hobbled Sixers were getting killed on the boards, as Bellamy & Reed were feasting on the offensive glass. They played Games 4, 5, and 6 consecutively. No days off in between. :wavefinger:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3jIemiXiPs#t=16m15s



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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#545 » by bastillon » Fri Feb 10, 2012 9:16 pm

No doubt the '68 Sixers were the best single season team to not win. It was deemed remarkable that they even got to the Division Finals vs. Boston with all the injuries (Articles in above link). There were times during the NY series when the hobbled Sixers were getting killed on the boards, as Bellamy & Reed were feasting on the offensive glass. They played Games 4, 5, and 6 consecutively. No days off in between. :wavefinger:


Boston were OLDER and MORE INJURED. the reason why they lost is because Wilt couldn't dominate Wayne freakin Embry.

Their main early rival Syracuse had Red Kerr at center who was a solid center but got stronger faster. Larry Costello at PG was better than Rodgers, Hal Greer and George Yardley were a better pain on the wing where Philly was strong, and Dolph Schayes was still an All-Star at PF; plus Dick Barnett off the bench to match Attles. When Yardley went to the NBL in 61, Dave Gambee was an okay replacement.


WOW :o
so first you're discrediting Jordan's opposition (which included among others Bad Boys, Magic's Lakers, Bird's Celtics, KJ-Barkley Suns, Malone's Jazz, Payton-Kemp Sonics, Penny-Shaq Magic, Porter-Drexler Blazers, Riley's Knicks, Mourning's Heat) and then brag about talent level of Larry Costello and Kerr ?!

as I said, Wilt's playoff opposition, excluding Celtics to whom they lost every year, was outright bad. those teams wouldn't stand a chance against any respectable modern team. Costello, give me a break...

In 65 and 67, they beat the Royals with Oscar, Jerry Lucas, one time All-Star MVP Adrian Smith, and aging scorer Jack Twyman, together with Wayne Embry or Oscar, Lucas, Smith, Happy Hairston, the weak Connie Dierking at center but a deep bench including Bob Love and Jon McGlocklin-- a team that is more talented 1-4 than the pre-Cunningham Sixers. They also beat the Nate Thurmond/Rick Barry Warrior in 67, and the Bellamy/Willis Reed/Cazzie Russell/Dick Van Arsdale/Walt Frazier Knicks with Bill Bradley and Dick Barnett off the bench in 68.


Royal's without Oscar managed to go like 1-13 and 2-15 two times he missed extended time. those guys couldn't compete for anything more than the first pick. sure as hell more talented than Wilt's teammates :lol: just because you overrate Jerry Lucas' empty stats doesn't mean he was any good. Royals played better without him for a reason. GSW regressed on defense despite adding Thurmond's half season for a reason. Troy Murphy is 6th worst defensive player on the decade according to RAPM 02-11 for a reason as well. you know Troy actually posted several 10-11 reb seasons ? I guess the point is you're blatantly wrong about Royals talent, they were a horrible team outside of Oscar which team record proves exactly. when Oscar was playing on a talented team, they posted on average 9-10 SRS with him in the lineup.

Wilt's playoff competition included mediocre Syracuse (to whom he lost to once anyway), Oscar + bunch of crap, NYK before they became good. all you need to know about Wilt vs those teams is that once competition became a little stiffer in '69-'70 he was almost upset in the first round repeatedly. not to mention that he was playing on the most talented team in the league in 66-73.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#546 » by Dipper 13 » Sat Feb 11, 2012 2:27 am

Boston were OLDER and MORE INJURED. the reason why they lost is because Wilt couldn't dominate Wayne freakin Embry.


:nonono:


Wayne Embry's ability to keep Wilt off the offensive boards, clearing Russell (the GOAT defensive rebounder) to get the rebound and outlet to start the break was basically the reason the Sixers didn't close Boston out in Gm. 5 of the '68 EDF, despite an injured Wilt (partial tear of calf muscle in his right leg, a strain in his right thigh, partial tear of right knee tendon, and an injured right toe) coming out strong with a 28/30/7 effort. To quote Russell during the series, "A lesser man wouldn't be out there." Hell, the reason they won G4 was big Luke making Russell pay for sagging back on Wilt by hitting 4 big outside shots (3 consecutive) in the 4th quarter to open up a 10 pt. lead. Final score = 110-105. Chamberlain's G5 effort (28/30/7) exceeded his regular season statistical averages in both points & rebounds.

While it is noted that Russell switched himself onto Chet to cool him off, it appears he killed two birds with one stone. Of course the Sixers exceptionally poor outside shooting (below 25% FG in the 4th) when it counted along with Billy C's glaring absence didn't hurt either.


Article prior to Gm. 1 vs. Boston:

Christian Science Monitor - Apr 5, 1968

For example, Philadelphia lost Billy Cunningham for the season in the New York series with a broken right wrist. This is like Boston having to play without John Havlicek or St. Louis minus Joe Caldwell. Cunningham is a shooter' in all that the term implies. He played almost as many minutes during the season as the 76ers' two starting forwards, Luke Jackson and Chet Walker. Bill is an expert at driving the middle, drawing fouls, and then cashing them in at the free throw line. There is no one on the Celtics who really plays him well. Havlicek probably comes closest. But John's quickness is generally wasted against Cunningham, mostly because Bill gives no indication of when he is going to shoot.

The 76ers run what they call a C-pattern for Cunningham. It allows Billy to come across the top of the key from either side, pull up for a quick jumper whenever he feels like it, and then clears out the middle so that he can follow his own shot to the basket.




Article prior to Gm. 7:

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Gettysburg Times - May 9, 1968

According to Vince Miller after the game Chamberlain got five touches in the 4th quarter of G7. Whether it two touches or five in the final period, all accounts agree that he got 7 touches in the 2nd half. This after 23 touches in the 1st half.


"What would I have looked like if I had said, 'Hey, we lost because my teammates didn't get the ball into me? If Alex Hannum didn't have guts enough to lay it on the line and accept a certain amount of responsibility for the loss and name the reasons why, then I've lost a lot of respect for him, which I have and I will tell him that when I see him. You can't shoot the ball if you don't have the ball. But you know something, after the game, not one writer came up to me and said 'Hey, how come the ball didn't come into you?' Not one. But all of them did ask me, 'How come you didn't shoot more?'


Bill Russell interview from 2008:

http://www.achievement.org/autodoc/prin ... /rus0int-1

Before we leave 1968 altogether, can we talk about game seven for a minute? In 1968 you limited your friend Wilt Chamberlain to two shot attempts in the entire second half of game seven.

That's not true at all. That was a coach's decision. There was a forward on their team named Chet Walker, and he was hurting us badly, okay? So I had my backup center, it was a guy named Wayne Embry. Now Embry had been in the league seven or eight years, and he played against Wilt all those years. So at half time I said to him, "Wayne, I'm going to try something. It's not new. I want you to guard Wilt. Okay? I have to take care of Chet Walker." And see, when I made that substitution everybody thought it was trying to stay out of foul trouble, something like that, which was to me the best part of that because I made adjustments that they didn't know what I was doing. So they couldn't make a counter adjustment. You see if you make an adjustment, and they know what you're doing, well they can just counter it. But I made an adjustment, they thought it was to get off of Wilt. They didn't know it was to get on Chet. Now Wilt had a game plan, but his game plan was counting on me trying to guard him. When we put Wayne on him, he guarded him a completely different way.


He was used to you guarding him.

Yes. To me, the pretty part of it was -- I hate to use the word beauty -- is that Wayne had enormous experience guarding him. So it wasn't like you took some guy out of the stands and put him on Wilt. Here's a guy who's been guarding him for years. That adjustment was for Chet Walker, it wasn't for Wilt.


Can you talk us through the last minute of the 1968 Eastern Finals?

It was a close game, but we were in charge. So they got to the place where they've got to foul us. So they fouled, and we make free throws and they go down, and they score and make three fouls. So they get down to 12 seconds to go. That's when the thing with Sam came up. It was going to that series. After we got down three to one...

I'm the coach, okay, and so I'm talking to my guys before the fifth game. And I says, "We're going to beat these guys, and this is how we're going to do it." And we had a rookie on the team who's now a judge in Boston, because he had an ailment, he had to retire, but he told me a few years ago, he said, "You know, I was in the locker room when you said that. That's the most disciplined situation I've ever been in my life, because I had to discipline myself from falling out on the floor laughing, when you said we're going to beat these guys." He says, "They're going to kill us!" And he says, "We haven't got a chance!" And he sat there and watched the whole thing happen. And he says that's one of the wonders of his life, because I said it with complete confidence. And then I said, like I said earlier, "We don't have to win three games in a row. We've just got to win one." You see, after we won two of them, the pressure completely shifts. The pressure is on them. You're up three to one, and how do you lose three straight?

So it was basically routine.

I think that that move that I made at half time was the most important move I made as a coach in that series, because it worked, and we got accomplished what we wanted to get accomplished without them knowing what we were trying to accomplish. See everybody still talks about the fact that Wilt only took two shots. They still almost won the game, right? And the key was that Chet Walker had been killing us. And I knew that I could guard him. And the reason I knew I could guard him is his moves were very deliberate. As part of my teaching myself, I learned -- we had six plays and nowadays they number those positions. One is point guard, two is shooting guard, three is a small forward, four is a power forward, five is a center. Well, I made a point to learn how to play all those positions on all six plays. Now not that I ever wanted to or hoped to play in those other positions, but in knowing those positions I know the problems that go with that position. So that if my teammate needed help I can help. And on defense I watched these guys, how they play defense, and I know how to guard almost any position. And I physically took over Chet.




The inside game: race, power, and politics in the NBA - Wayne Embry


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Two years earlier in '66 he outplayed Russell clearly in Games 3 & 5, and a wash in G4. But to no avail they lost.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEdiptkyYsY#t=48s


It seems they also took the Celtics too lightly. Above we can see them celebrating the win vs Bullets to clinch the Division Championship on the last day of the season. They finished with 55 wins to Boston's 54.

The two week layoff killed them. There is no way you can say Chamberlain played poorly in the series. Looking at the recaps, it appears G2 was easily his (and the Sixers) worst showing of the series. In G3 he grabbed 27 of the Sixers 69 rebounds and they won because Greer got hot down the stretch and Wilt finally got some help on the boards from Luke Jackson (15 rebounds). It may sound funny that a player averaging 30 boards needs help on the glass until you note how exceptionally poor the Sixers outside shooting was.



G1 - 25 points, 32 rebounds, 9/17 FG
G2 - 23 points, 25 rebounds, 9/23 FG
G3 - 31 points, 27 rebounds, 12/22 FG
G4 - 15 points, 33 rebounds, 7/14 FG
G5 - 46 points, 34 rebounds, 19/34 FG


Averages in G1 & G4 - 20 ppg, 32.5 rpg, 52% FG (16/31)

Averages in G3 & G5 - 38.5 ppg, 30.5 rpg, 55% FG (31/56)



Beyond the statistics, Chamberlain by all accounts did increase his level of play defensively & on the boards. Considering how few touches he received in the games due to the sagging defense, we must assume a number of his missed FG's were tip-in attempts in the congested paint. He averaged 30 boards for the series and a good chunk of them must have come on the offensive end.


Here is an example below (Chamberlain off. rebound + dunk) showing just how poor the Sixers shooting was. Wali barely hits the backboard on a 15 foot jumper.


18:33 mark

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEdiptkyYsY


Also note another Chamberlain rebound & dunk at the 18:51 mark in the same video above from the '66 series. We can also note how the Celtics pressed full court to keep the ball out of his hands as much as possible and at the 17:20 mark off the opening jump ball how the defense was shifted to Wilt's (left) side of the floor, leaving Wali unguarded for a shot. We can also see a Bill Russell "intangible" quality off the inbounds.

"When I feel he is relaxed, I burst down on the break, and we murder him. But this works just once and two points do not win a ball game."


Some have stated that Wilt was the main reason for the loss in '66, that the Sixers would have won had he statistically performed up to par. In the 1st half of G5, Coach Schayes noted that Chamberlain was the only player to shoot 25% or better from the field on his way to a 46 point night.


Apr 13, 1966

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Game 1:

Sixers hit with the flu + 2 week layoff = 19 turnovers in a 19 point loss.

Wilt Chamberlain did his work under the boards, taking 32 rebounds for the 76ers. But his mates couldn't get the ball into him often and he made only nine field goals in scoring 25 points.

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Game 2:

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Game 3:

Their defense was the barbed wire. Every time they needed a key basket, Wilt Chamberlain poured through the lane and got it for them. That was how the Philadelphia 76ers got back into contention in the Eastern Division playoffs with a 111-105 victory over the Boston Celtics Thursday night at Convention Hall.

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Game 4: Chamberlain with the block at the end of regulation to force OT.


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Game 5:

Christian Science Monitor - Apr 14, 1966

Wilt took 34 shots, hitting on 19. But he was only eight for 25 with his free throws. Chamberlain scored 46 points, no small since Russell played him tight and with a maximum amount of contact. But Wilt could have gone to 63 with Bill Sharman's touch at the foul line. Boston's cornermen excelled, not only, but also on offense. John Havlicek played the full 48 minutes and scored 32 points. Tom Sanders probably had his best game of the series with 11 points and 16 rebounds.



Apr 18, 1966

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Schenectady Gazette - Aug 24, 1966

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#547 » by penbeast0 » Sat Feb 11, 2012 9:37 pm

Just out of curiousity, what comment did I make denigrating Jordan's opponents? You've pretty much done all the denigrating. Syracuse was a very good team FOR ITS ERA; it had won the last title pre-Russell. 4 members of that team are in the HOF. Kerr and Costello have 9 All-Star games between them. You can't just magically move them to the modern day and say . . . gee, they wouldn't be good today; everyone is a product of their time. The question is whether Wilt faced weak teams WHEN THEY PLAYED which is what you are claiming.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#548 » by bastillon » Sat Feb 11, 2012 11:03 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Just out of curiousity, what comment did I make denigrating Jordan's opponents? You've pretty much done all the denigrating. Syracuse was a very good team FOR ITS ERA; it had won the last title pre-Russell. 4 members of that team are in the HOF. Kerr and Costello have 9 All-Star games between them. You can't just magically move them to the modern day and say . . . gee, they wouldn't be good today; everyone is a product of their time. The question is whether Wilt faced weak teams WHEN THEY PLAYED which is what you are claiming.


I said Wilt played vs pathetic opposition, you countered that with Jordan playing against the same opposition. I'm saying that's not true, because Jordan was playing top teams in the NBA and won. back when there were 8 teams in the league obviously there's not gonna be a lot of good teams. pretty much the best teams in the league were Wilt's Warriors/Sixers, West-Baylor Lakers and Russell's Celtics. Wilt never won against any of them.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#549 » by Dipper 13 » Sun Feb 12, 2012 12:19 am

Yes it is unfortunate the '67 Lakers were too beat up to reach the Finals and take their whipping. Although I imagine it was better for Chamberlain & Coach Hannum to defeat the team that had dumped them both within the previous two years.



Sports Illustrated - May 08, 1967

Construction of this ultimate victory had begun a long time ago, on a fall day in 1963 in Vancouver, B.C. Alex Hannum and Chamberlain had come together for the first time that September, as coach and star of San Francisco. Wilt had averaged 45 points a game the season before, but the Warriors had finished fourth, sullen and dispirited. Hannum had led Syracuse to a 48-32 record in the Eastern Division, with not a single player averaging so much as 20. In Vancouver, Hannum started to run the Warriors his way, and almost from the first, and then on every succeeding day, the two men clashed and bickered.

Finally, as the season's opening game approached, Hannum and Chamberlain fell into deep, violent argument. Hotly intent, they went at each other for real. Other players rushed forward in time to prevent blows, but Hannum still glared at Wilt. "All right, we'll go outside and settle it," Alex said. But the players would not allow that, either. In their minds the matter was settled, anyway; Hannum's ideas had won. They were right. Wilt led the Warriors to the championship of the West that year.

It was a team with grave weaknesses, however, and when they were exposed the following year, chaos ensued. Wilt was traded in midseason to Philadelphia, Hannum was later fired. They wandered through months of despair and coincidence until they ended up on the same team again last fall. This time, in Philadelphia, there was no rancor or distrust. They knew they needed each other—Hannum to outcoach Bill Russell, Chamberlain to outplay him.






There is no question I choose Chamberlain #1 in alltime draft, as long as Coach Hannum is with him and both are signed long term. I choose Jordan #1, as long as Coach Jackson is with him long term. But if I can get Russell with Coach Auerbach, I choose him over both of them. It is no surprise Hannum selected Chamberlain as his HOF presenter in 1998, nor is it a shock that Russell & Red are (easily) the greatest duo in NBA history. :nod:


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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#550 » by bastillon » Sun Feb 12, 2012 4:30 am

67 Sixers would obviously beat the Lakers but they'd do that without Wilt in the lineup as well so I don't see the point.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#551 » by penbeast0 » Sun Feb 12, 2012 4:48 am

Here was the closest I've come to calling Jordan's competition weak:

"Michael Jordan. Some great performances against better teams . . . but in losing series. He never beat a team clearly superior to his."

The championship Bulls were one of the greatest teams of all times. No one in his day played on a better team; the pre-championship Bulls beat who?

85 lost to Bucks 3-1
86 lost to Celtics 3-0
87 lost to Celtics 3-0
88 Beat Cleveland 3-2, lost to Detroit 4-1
89 Beat Cleveland 3-2, beat NY 4-2, lost to Detroit 4-2
90 Beat Milwaukee 3-1, beat Mil 4-1, lost to Detroit 4-3

Cleveland in 88 was just finding its feet but it was a very good team in 89. The Bulls were very young and had just made the Cartwright deal that would bring together the team that won three straight. This could arguably be the only team that was ever more talented than Michael's depending on how much you value Brad Daughterty (note that in 89, Price missed the key game and they lost 3-2)

NY was Ewing, Oakley, Mark Jackson, Gerald Wilkins and Johnny Newman. Solid, nothing spectacular outside of Ewing.

Milwaukee was still trying to hang onto the Moncrief years but their leading minutes in the playoffs were Alvin Robertson and Brad Lohaus. Good defense with Robertson, Pressey and good depth but not a strong playoff team.

Philly was like NY, Charles Barkley and a bunch of solid players in Hersey Hawkins, Johnny Dawkins, Mike Gminski, and Rick Mahorn but no one to be afraid of outside of Barkley.

So basically, you are saying that Cleveland is far superior for its day (they did make it to the ECF a couple of years later only to get beat by CHI again) than Syracuse or St. Louis (both of which won championships). I can see that argument but can't see where (a) it isn't close or (b) where any of the other teams Jordan beat in his rise were that spectacular. Once the Bulls were fully established, it's hard to say anyone was more talented since even without Jordan in 94 they were a .671 team.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#552 » by lorak » Sun Feb 12, 2012 10:10 am

With/without numbers were big part of this project, but look how useless is that.
This season 76ers with Hawes are 10-2, without him 7-7. But his RAPM is -0.6 (and it's not a fluke - his RAPM is negative whole career).
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#553 » by bastillon » Sun Feb 12, 2012 3:05 pm

you don't really get it, penbeast. Syracuse was about top4 team in the league of 8 teams... which is equivalent of top12 team in modern era. MJ was consistently dealing with top5 teams in the NBA. he was in the conference finals already before his supporting cast developed. Wilt never came close... he consistently underachieved. comparing those Syracuse to their title version... which came like 5 years before Wilt got to the NBA. those Syracuse teams were nowhere near title level, they were .500 teams. Hawks won the title as well... 6 years before they got to face Wilt. those arguments are terrible, you're way better than that.

Cleveland 89 was 8 SRS / 57W team
Knicks 89 were 3.4 SRS / 52W team
Sixers 90 were 4.2 SRS / 52W team
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#554 » by Rapcity_11 » Sun Feb 12, 2012 8:07 pm

DavidStern wrote:With/without numbers were big part of this project, but look how useless is that.
This season 76ers with Hawes are 10-2, without him 7-7. But his RAPM is -0.6 (and it's not a fluke - his RAPM is negative whole career).


Don't be that guy who finds what they think is a flaw in a stat and dismisses it.

Also, this is about star comparisons, not role players.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#555 » by Dipper 13 » Sun Feb 12, 2012 9:33 pm

bastillon wrote:67 Sixers would obviously beat the Lakers


As they would in '65, '66, & '68. Same for the Warriors in '62 & '64.

Do we assume that because the '86 Celtics didn't defeat the Lakers, they wouldn't have? :wavefinger:


all you need to know about Wilt vs those teams is that once competition became a little stiffer in '69-'70 he was almost upset in the first round repeatedly.


How about 34 year old Chamberlain on surgically repaired knee & Goodrich (no West or Baylor) upsetting the '71 Bulls (who were predicted by some to sweep them). Then in the next series he decisively outplays prime KAJ in 3 of the 5 games (Gm. 2, 3, & 5), receiving a standing ovation from the Bucks crowd for his efforts.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#556 » by lorak » Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:30 am

Rapcity_11 wrote:
DavidStern wrote:With/without numbers were big part of this project, but look how useless is that.
This season 76ers with Hawes are 10-2, without him 7-7. But his RAPM is -0.6 (and it's not a fluke - his RAPM is negative whole career).


Don't be that guy who finds what they think is a flaw in a stat and dismisses it.


You think with/without flaws aren't important?

RAPM >>>> with/without, so I will not believe with/without, because I don't know when it's accurate and when not.

Also, this is about star comparisons, not role players.


Why is that relevant?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#557 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:47 am

DavidStern wrote:
You think with/without flaws aren't important?


No, I said don't be that guy who finds what they think is a flaw in something then completely dismisses it. Like when guys look at APM or RAPM and dismiss it because Collison is highly ranked.

RAPM >>>> with/without, so I will not believe with/without, because I don't know when it's accurate and when not.


RAPM only goes so far back in time...

Why is that relevant?


Because how a team plays without their star is much more important than how they play without a role player. Also, you brought up a role player in Hawes.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#558 » by lorak » Mon Feb 13, 2012 8:26 am

Rapcity_11 wrote:
DavidStern wrote:
You think with/without flaws aren't important?


No, I said don't be that guy who finds what they think is a flaw in something then completely dismisses it. Like when guys look at APM or RAPM and dismiss it because Collison is highly ranked.


I'm think I'm not doing that.
With/without flaws are well know, yet we use them often, partly because prior to XXI century we don't have +/- data. But should we? Sometimes it would be accurate, but sometimes not and we don't know when. With/without without deep context analysis was too big part of this project. That what I'm saying.



Because how a team plays without their star is much more important than how they play without a role player. Also, you brought up a role player in Hawes.


Hawes looks like superstar this season, but never mind. There are obviously many other examples:
bulls
with Rose 18-5
without 5-2
RAPM +2.9

heat
with Wade 13-6
without 8-1
RAPM +2.8

hawks
with Horford 7-4
without 11-6
RAPM +1.7
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#559 » by Rapcity_11 » Mon Feb 13, 2012 2:39 pm

DavidStern wrote:I'm think I'm not doing that.
With/without flaws are well know, yet we use them often, partly because prior to XXI century we don't have +/- data. But should we? Sometimes it would be accurate, but sometimes not and we don't know when. With/without without deep context analysis was too big part of this project. That what I'm saying.


Definitely a valid opinion. I say that having read through just about the entire project.

Hawes looks like superstar this season, but never mind. There are obviously many other examples:
bulls
with Rose 18-5
without 5-2
RAPM +2.9

heat
with Wade 13-6
without 8-1
RAPM +2.8

hawks
with Horford 7-4
without 11-6
RAPM +1.7


I think the next step for in/out is to come up with some way of adjusting for strength of opponent.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List 

Post#560 » by ElGee » Mon Feb 13, 2012 8:20 pm

^^^This is overcome with sample size. It's just impossible to glean much beyond "what just happened to have happened that one time" when a player misses 6, 8, 10 games. 20+ games is a nice sample, and of course we want as little lineup fluctuation as possible in that span. (This also usually irons out H/A differences.)

Talking about in/out and RAPM 20 games into a season is somewhat useless.
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