RealGM Top 100 List #11

ronnymac2 · Post #541 » by **ronnymac2** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:02 pm

2006 Kobe is one of the greatest offensive seasons in history. He played 41 minutes and had a 38.7 USG% in those minutes. That doesn't take into account his passing/playmaking duties. And that doesn't take into account that Kobe can basically set up anywhere on the floor and have roughly the same effectiveness because of his diversified skillset.

Chris Mihm, Smush Parker, and Kwame Brown all had the most responsibility that they'd ever have in their mediocre NBA careers, yet they all hit career-highs or near-career highs in eFG%. Odom I believe had the 3rd-best eFG% of his career, but the other two years came when he was a third option behind Kobe and Pau. In 2006, he only had Kobe to take the load off.

Kobe's actual eFG% was only slightly above average that season, but at that USG% and with all of those shot attempts and minutes, that's a huge positive force, especially because of the massive effect on mediocre supporting players (LA was above average in eFG%). Then you add in Kobe's obviously excellent foul draw rate and free throw shooting and you get a strong contribution to ft/FGA (LA was just slightly below average there).

Kobe's turnover percentage despite all of the attention and ball-handling responsibility was a 9%, which contributed to LA being above average in that Offensive Factor, too (9% is insane btw). And though he doesn't impact the offensive glass with his own Oboards, the attention from the perimeter he garners, along with the Triangle offense, does open up offensive rebounding opportunities for big men. LA was an above average offensive rebounding team.

LA was a +2.2 offense in 2006 with basically 2 above average offensive players on the roster, and they were strong all-around in Offensive Four Factors. They didn't really run cheat lineups where the emphasis is on offense because they lacked talent, but their defensive players sucked, too. What happens if you replace Mihm and rookie Bynum with, I don't know, prime Deke? Offense probably stays the same (maybe better with superior offensive rebounding), defense maybe goes above average (Deke and Odom do different things defensively, so it'd be a strong defensive frontcourt). You're definitely looking at a contender there. LA's SRS was 2.5. Add a DPOY with not bad offense and strong fit and you might see them at 5 or higher. They're top 5 in the league in terms of average playing level and have awesome matchups tools in a dominant defensive frontcourt and megastar offensive player.

I understand that people look at a high scoring average and USG% on a 45 win team and think it doesn't really matter because that contribution either wouldn't suffice or wouldn't be necessary on an actual title contender. I disagree with that because based on one reasonable roster adjustment, LA in 2006 could have been a legitimate contender with Kobe still rocking roughly the same offensive responsibility.

I voted for KG here, but I want to give Bryant a fair shake here. His contributions to winning were amazing.

therealbig3 · Post #542 » by **therealbig3** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:03 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:Runoff vote for Kobe

Main guy on 2 champs
Plus major guy on 3.

Just have no evidence of Garnett putting team on his back to win

It's like comparing wade to pippen.
Pippen might have better all around skills but wade is the gamer who is there to win.

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

And we have evidence that Kobe put a team on his back to win? When did Kobe carry anyone to a title? He always won when he had a great supporting cast. In fact, for the first 3, he was part of the supporting cast.

When he didn't have the supporting cast...his team results looked like a lot like KG's in Minnesota...missed playoffs and 1st round exits.

RebelWithACause · Post #543 » by **RebelWithACause** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:09 pm

Now first off, this is a sincere post with sincere questions:

I do not keep an All-Time list, and this post is not meant to be pro Kobe or pro Garnett.
Just some things that popped up while reading through this thread.

How would you guys compare Rasheed Wallace to Kobe Bryant, if you place heavy emphasis RAPM and prefer Garnett to Bryant rather clearly.

RAPM shows Sheed as one of the most underrated players. He actually is a big minute player from 97-08. Those are 11 years he plays about 35 minutes in the RS and about 36 minutes in the PS.

He showed his consistent "impact" on wildly different teams with different roles. More of a primary option in Portland and like KG rather a defensive specialist in Detroit. The great portability is given here as well.
Like KG his skill set is very unqiue, with him stretching the floor even better, because of his letigimate 3pt range.

Someone asked the question, can a 19/10/3 guy be better than a 34/6/5 guy. I want to take it further here, can a 15/7/2 guy be better than a 34/5/6 guy?

His PS dropoff is quite similar to most other players discussed here as well.

So here is how they compare : (reference spreadsheet of Doc MJ)

Peak: Rasheed measure out at a +2.94 in 99, while Kobe comes in at +2.72 in 08 and 09.
5 year Prime (best years): Rasheed has a small edge again, at 12.74, Kobe at 12.65
10 year Prime : Rasheed at 20.72, Kobe at 19.11 , edge Sheed again
Longevity years:
-2 more years for Rasheed here that were not included, dumb sum +1.53
-4 more years of Kobe here that were not included, dumb sum +0.02 (13 missing as well)

So if consistency is a given here, what is stopping guys from voting for Rasheed over Kobe Bryant. Will Rasheed now get traction in the Top15?
RAPM tells us Sheed has a better peak, prime and longevity. Unlike someone like Ginobili, the reduced minute tag is not appropriate here. He played in many different setting, with different roles, so this should not go against him either.

HeartBreakKid · Post #544 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:18 pm

RebelWithACause wrote:Now first off, this is a sincere post with sincere questions:

I do not keep an All-Time list, and this post is not meant to be pro Kobe or pro Garnett.
Just some things that popped up while reading through this thread.

How would you guys compare Rasheed Wallace to Kobe Bryant, if you place heavy emphasis RAPM and prefer Garnett to Bryant rather clearly.

RAPM shows Sheed as one of the most underrated players. He actually is a big minute player from 97-08. Those are 11 years he plays about 35 minutes in the RS and about 36 minutes in the PS.

He showed his consistent "impact" on wildly different teams with different roles. More of a primary option in Portland and like KG rather a defensive specialist in Detroit. The great portability is given here as well.
Like KG his skill set is very unqiue, with him stretching the floor even better, because of his letigimate 3pt range.

Someone asked the question, can a 19/10/3 guy be better than a 34/6/5 guy. I want to take it further here, can a 15/7/2 guy be better than a 34/5/6 guy?

His PS dropoff is quite similar to most other players discussed here as well.

So here is how they compare : (reference spreadsheet of Doc MJ)

Peak: Rasheed measure out at a +2.94 in 99, while Kobe comes in at +2.72 in 08 and 09.
5 year Prime (best years): Rasheed has a small edge again, at 12.74, Kobe at 12.65
10 year Prime : Rasheed at 20.72, Kobe at 19.11 , edge Sheed again
Longevity years:
-2 more years for Rasheed here that were not included, dumb sum +1.53
-4 more years of Kobe here that were not included, dumb sum +0.02 (13 missing as well)

So if consistency is a given here, what is stopping guys from voting for Rasheed over Kobe Bryant. Will Rasheed now get traction in the Top15?
RAPM tells us Sheed has a better peak, prime and longevity. Unlike someone like Ginobili, the reduced minute tag is not appropriate here. He played in many different setting, with different roles, so this should not go against him either.

Rasheed Wallace was almost certainly a better defender than Bryant. As for overall impact, RAPM is designed to tell someone who is better than someone else.

A really easy rebuttal to this is what else says that Rasheed Wallace is better than Kobe Bryant? Believe it or not, if KG hadn't lead RAPM I'd still think he was better than Bryant, if I had never looked at any stats my entire life (which I didn't for the most part during the early 2000s) I would still think KG is better than Bryant.

I do think Rasheed Wallace was a high impact player, so I'm not sure if that actually discredits RAPM, because quite frankly who has a higher RAPM is arbitrary, the more important stat is if RAPM tells us that they are useful or not, not necessarily who is better than whom, I don't think RAPM necessarily exist to compare players directly.

The argument that people say KG is better than Bryant because of RAPM is a strawman argument, most people do not say that, and people who do say that that is not the sole reason.

therealbig3 · Post #545 » by **therealbig3** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:33 pm

And Rasheed never really was in the same role as KG or Kobe. IMO, he was always a complementary player. He played for some really talented and well-balanced Portland squads, and then obviously Detroit. And even in Detroit, he was more of a missing piece, not the guy that held everything together and anchored the defense, so he wasn't like KG in Boston there, and he wasn't like Kobe when he was on some great Lakers teams. I felt like his responsibility was totally different, so a straight comparison of RAPM doesn't really work here.

Like HBK said, there needs to be more evidence than that. The people that use RAPM never used it as their sole evidence for KG.

And in Sheed's case...he BARELY holds an edge in RAPM. The reason why it was a strong point in KG's favor is because the difference was pretty huge. A small difference can be explained by a bunch of different factors, including error that's involved in any mathematical formula. When you have a large difference, that becomes a lot harder to explain by factors that aren't involved in those players' level of play.

ShaqAttack3234 · Post #546 » by **ShaqAttack3234** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:44 pm

I'm not one of the huge RAPM guys, but I'm not what you'd call a detractor either. I do find it interesting, and will consider the results, NPI, that is, but I'll say that I have thought Sheed was underrated for years. He was a top 15 player in his prime, and a great all around big man. Excellent outside jumper, first to 20 feet or so, then he showed legit 3 point range around '02 on, but a very good post player who could score consistently with drop-steps and his deadly turnaround which forced teams to double him, and he always did a good job passing out of those doubles. In fact, that may have been the most underrated part of his game, and he was a great finisher due to his length and athleticism. Prime Sheed before he got older and fell in love with the 3 point shot was a beast, particularly in 2000 and 2001. Defensively, Sheed was all-defensive caliber. He was a very good post defender, a strong shot blocker and interior defender, and he had the mobility and versatility to do anything defensively whether it was guarding screen/rolls, coming out to the perimeter, double-teaming, trapping in the backcourt ect. And he did it consistently. He wasn't one of those guys who slacked off at that end. Really, outside of Sheed never using his talent to be the true dominant, franchise player or MVP-caliber player at the offensive end, the only other knock would really be his rebounding, which was never as good as you'd think, but I wouldn't call him a weak rebounder or a liability on the boards either. Plus, in many situations, Sheed was playing with big frontcourts and very active defensively, while at the offensive end, part of the reason he never got above being a 19 ppg scorer or so was that his best years were on a slower, more half-court oriented team in the early 2000s when offense was at a low, and Sheed happened to be on a team that was truly stacked, so it wasn't like the Wolves going to KG, the Spurs going to Duncan, much less like the Rockets going to Hakeem or Lakers going to Shaq.

With that said, this is why regardless of how much you believe in a stat, you can't completely dismiss what you see either. Watching Sheed, KG and Kobe in his prime, I was certain those 2 were in a different class than Sheed, and I have a high appreciation for Sheed's game. I think he'd help almost any team he joined a lot, but those players were on a different level. Hell, I'd say Kobe by 2000 before his prime at 21 was already a bit better than Sheed at his peak that same year.

RebelWithACause · Post #547 » by **RebelWithACause** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:50 pm

therealbig3 wrote:And Rasheed never really was in the same role as KG or Kobe. IMO, he was always a complementary player. He played for some really talented and well-balanced Portland squads, and then obviously Detroit. And even in Detroit, he was more of a missing piece, not the guy that held everything together and anchored the defense, so he wasn't like KG in Boston there, and he wasn't like Kobe when he was on some great Lakers teams. I felt like his responsibility was totally different, so a straight comparison of RAPM doesn't really work here.

Like HBK said, there needs to be more evidence than that. The people that use RAPM never used it as their sole evidence for KG.

And in Sheed's case...he BARELY holds an edge in RAPM. The reason why it was a strong point in KG's favor is because the difference was pretty huge. A small difference can be explained by a bunch of different factors, including error that's involved in any mathematical formula. When you have a large difference, that becomes a lot harder to explain by factors that aren't involved in those players' level of play.

- He was the clear number 1 option on most of those Portland teams though. I thought volume scoring in general (on bad or middling efficiency) was a bad idea to begin with, so he actually did the right thing.

- It is even more impressive to stand out that much on "well balanced" teams

- Well if this is too early, I sure think he then has a huge argument to get in before say someone like Iverson (46th last time, Sheed not even Top100)
Did you have Sheed in your pre Top100?

90sAllDecade · Post #548 » by **90sAllDecade** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:50 pm

I wanted to add a team comparison for these two, I wanted to note, by the time in his prime Kobe got Gasol he already had a lot of additional talent on his team to help his team success in 07-08.

Garnett did without a HOF coach or an all star year player for much of his career when comparing his team success.

Regular Season Records and Playoff success comparison of all time players, during the years without HOF coaching or HOF or All Star teammates:

Here's Kobe vs Garnett specifically, I went deeper with Kobe's notable roster changes during the mid 2000's and with Phil Jackson since he only had one year without both:

Kevin Garnett (No All star players):

Spoiler:

Kobe Bryant (No Shaq, All star player or Phil Jackson):

Spoiler:

The rest of that was posted before:

Spoiler:

DQuinn1575 · Post #549 » by **DQuinn1575** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:52 pm

therealbig3 wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:Runoff vote for Kobe

Main guy on 2 champs
Plus major guy on 3.

Just have no evidence of Garnett putting team on his back to win

It's like comparing wade to pippen.
Pippen might have better all around skills but wade is the gamer who is there to win.

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

And we have evidence that Kobe put a team on his back to win? When did Kobe carry anyone to a title? He always won when he had a great supporting cast. In fact, for the first 3, he was part of the supporting cast.

When he didn't have the supporting cast...his team results looked like a lot like KG's in Minnesota...missed playoffs and 1st round exits.

Garnett's 2nd highest usage % in playoffs was 28.7 Kobe was higher than that in 4 of his 4 championships.
His 5th was higher than the one time Garnett won.

Kobe had the most win shares one of the shaq years. He really wasn't supporting cast.

So Kobe was on 5 championship teams with a usage % higher than the 1 title Garnett won .

Now if Garnett upped his scoring on the teams he was on I would give him more credit. His teams needed more scoring and he didn't give it to them.

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

acrossthecourt · Post #550 » by **acrossthecourt** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:54 pm

I don't quite understand why people get so upset when you don't rank Kobe high enough or praise Garnett. It's almost like a religion. People are very passionate.

If you value scoring and skill that enough, and an impressive title run, I hope you also push for Rick Barry. He's one of the greatest free throw shooters ever, one of the first to use the three-point line, scores over 30 several times, has a string of high assist seasons, a few different 50 point games including a 64 point one, a couple great finals series, and with the ABA 25+ thousand points.

(I hope someone doesn't misconstrue what I said and think I'm implying Barry's top 15. Rather I wonder if their love for Kobe extends to other high scorers.)

DQuinn1575 wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:
DQuinn1575 wrote:Runoff vote for Kobe

Main guy on 2 champs
Plus major guy on 3.

Just have no evidence of Garnett putting team on his back to win

It's like comparing wade to pippen.
Pippen might have better all around skills but wade is the gamer who is there to win.

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

And we have evidence that Kobe put a team on his back to win? When did Kobe carry anyone to a title? He always won when he had a great supporting cast. In fact, for the first 3, he was part of the supporting cast.

When he didn't have the supporting cast...his team results looked like a lot like KG's in Minnesota...missed playoffs and 1st round exits.

Garnett's 2nd highest usage % in playoffs was 28.7 Kobe was higher than that in 4 of his 4 championships.
His 5th was higher than the one time Garnett won.

Kobe had the most win shares one of the shaq years. He really wasn't supporting cast.

So Kobe was on 5 championship teams with a usage % higher than the 1 title Garnett won .

Now if Garnett upped his scoring on the teams he was on I would give him more credit. His teams needed more scoring and he didn't give it to them.

Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

If you bring out the Win Shares card, then I'll counter with Pau having more Win Shares in the playoffs one season.

And yes, Kobe generally has a high usage rate and Garnett is better on defense. This changes nothing.

ronnymac2 · Post #551 » by **ronnymac2** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 7:56 pm

acrossthecourt wrote:I don't quite understand why people get so upset when you don't rank Kobe high enough or praise Garnett. It's almost like a religion. People are very passionate.

If you value scoring and skill that enough, and an impressive title run, I hope you also push for Rick Barry. He's one of the greatest free throw shooters ever, one of the first to use the three-point line, scores over 30 several times, has a string of high assist seasons, a few different 50 point games including a 64 point one, a couple great finals series, and with the ABA 25+ thousand points.

(I hope someone doesn't misconstrue what I said and think I'm implying Barry's top 15. Rather I wonder if their love for Kobe extends to other high scorers.)

I'm high on Barry's peak and prime. Longevity might hurt him for me this time around though. But man, he was an offensive wizard.

90sAllDecade · Post #552 » by **90sAllDecade** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:11 pm

This thread has been heavy on numbers based analysis which is good, but I think some game film is a nice change up. Even if it's highlights.

Unbiased Fan posted some great footage of Kobe's defense, which showed me how good a man and perimeter defender he was. I value some RAPM data although it has inaccuracies and is flawed at times like other stats, but game film should be analyzed just as much if not more imo.

I haven't seen much Garnett footage showing off his all around game so I wanted to post some. You can see his low post scoring, face up ball handling, outside jumpers, a little horizontal defensive game, some vertical defense and his passing & rebounding at his peak in the 2004 playoffs. It was his MVP season I believe.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQE2EAo__iI[/youtube]

lorak · Post #553 » by **lorak** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:14 pm

RebelWithACause wrote:
Spoiler:
Now first off, this is a sincere post with sincere questions:

I do not keep an All-Time list, and this post is not meant to be pro Kobe or pro Garnett.
Just some things that popped up while reading through this thread.

How would you guys compare Rasheed Wallace to Kobe Bryant, if you place heavy emphasis RAPM and prefer Garnett to Bryant rather clearly.

RAPM shows Sheed as one of the most underrated players. He actually is a big minute player from 97-08. Those are 11 years he plays about 35 minutes in the RS and about 36 minutes in the PS.

He showed his consistent "impact" on wildly different teams with different roles. More of a primary option in Portland and like KG rather a defensive specialist in Detroit. The great portability is given here as well.
Like KG his skill set is very unqiue, with him stretching the floor even better, because of his letigimate 3pt range.

Someone asked the question, can a 19/10/3 guy be better than a 34/6/5 guy. I want to take it further here, can a 15/7/2 guy be better than a 34/5/6 guy?

His PS dropoff is quite similar to most other players discussed here as well.

So here is how they compare : (reference spreadsheet of Doc MJ)

Peak: Rasheed measure out at a +2.94 in 99, while Kobe comes in at +2.72 in 08 and 09.
5 year Prime (best years): Rasheed has a small edge again, at 12.74, Kobe at 12.65
10 year Prime : Rasheed at 20.72, Kobe at 19.11 , edge Sheed again
Longevity years:
-2 more years for Rasheed here that were not included, dumb sum +1.53
-4 more years of Kobe here that were not included, dumb sum +0.02 (13 missing as well)

So if consistency is a given here, what is stopping guys from voting for Rasheed over Kobe Bryant. Will Rasheed now get traction in the Top15?
RAPM tells us Sheed has a better peak, prime and longevity. Unlike someone like Ginobili, the reduced minute tag is not appropriate here. He played in many different setting, with different roles, so this should not go against him either.

I'm glad someone mentioned Rasheed, because he is one of the most underrated players ever. Unfortunately he never was a player to built a team around (like KB or KG). He was more like ultimate role player/2nd option and it would be interesting to see how he compares to for example Pippen.

ps
Winston (one of the first APM guys) several years ago published list of top 10 players of the decade ('00-'09) and Rasheed was 10th with +7.5 (Kobe 7th with +8.4 and KG 1st with +11.7)

pancakes3 · Post #554 » by **pancakes3** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:21 pm

So you all are actually going to vote in KG ahead of Kobe?

Post #555 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:28 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:Ask yourself a simply question, whether you believe KG to be better or not....Does the notion that KG had 7 seasons more impactful than Kobe's best....really make sense to you?

This was your question, so I'm just going to respond further on it:

Take the word 'impactful' out of it for a second.

There are 7 seasons, during which Garnett played on two entirely different teams in entirely different roles, in which Garnett's presence correlated with team success higher than Kobe's presence ever did.

Now, either that says something about how capable the two players demonstrated themselves to be in terms of impacting the game in a positive direction, or Garnett got lucky...repeatedly.

My assessment of the most likely scenario: Luck is not the most likely explanation, therefore I take that as evidence for Garnett's impact being stronger than Kobe's.

Does that literally mean that I'm sure that Garnett's 7th best year was better than Kobe's best? Well no. There's some noise in here, and it could certainly bump Kobe up a bit and Garnett down a bit.

So then this is where we get to differences in approach:

For you, the fact that Garnett has such a big edge here makes you say "See, it's absurd to use the stat like this."
For me it says, "There's just too much evidence in one direction to assume it's luck."

Purch · Post #556 » by **Purch** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:29 pm

90sAllDecade wrote:This thread has been heavy on numbers based analysis which is good, but I think some game film is a nice change up. Even if it's highlights.

Unbiased Fan posted some great footage of Kobe's defense, which showed me how good a man and perimeter defender he was. I value some RAPM data although it has inaccuracies and is flawed at times like other stats, but game film should be analyzed just as much if not more imo.

I haven't seen much Garnett footage showing off his all around game so I wanted to post some. You can see his low post scoring, face up ball handling, outside jumpers, a little horizontal defensive game, some vertical defense and his passing & rebounding at his peak in the 2004 playoffs. It was his MVP season I believe.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQE2EAo__iI[/youtube]

Funny thing is, before I started uploading on my channel, that was the only Garnett playoff game you could find on youtube. I made it a mission to upload more of his games. I ended up uploading his Game 3 vs the Kings (04), His game 5 vs Lakers (04), his game 3 vs Lakers (03) and his game 5 vs Pistons (08)

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZdXQIezguo[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yfVQwMl2NDI[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yc8jjcJUkco[/youtube]
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4edE1DBzp88[/youtube]

The reason I started uploading Garnett games, was because I felt not a lot of people got to experience how great a player he was, and only had that game 7 in their heads as his great playoff game. I also did the same for Steve Nash and Jason Kidd (uploaded 7 playoff games for each of them). Texas Chuck you might be intrested in the Nash game I uploaded of him playing on the Mavs.

Funny thing is, I'm one of the greatest Garnett advocates in general, but I can't support him being argued for a spot he doesnt deserve.

Post #557 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:51 pm

RebelWithACause wrote:Now first off, this is a sincere post with sincere questions:

I do not keep an All-Time list, and this post is not meant to be pro Kobe or pro Garnett.
Just some things that popped up while reading through this thread.

How would you guys compare Rasheed Wallace to Kobe Bryant, if you place heavy emphasis RAPM and prefer Garnett to Bryant rather clearly.

RAPM shows Sheed as one of the most underrated players. He actually is a big minute player from 97-08. Those are 11 years he plays about 35 minutes in the RS and about 36 minutes in the PS.

He showed his consistent "impact" on wildly different teams with different roles. More of a primary option in Portland and like KG rather a defensive specialist in Detroit. The great portability is given here as well.
Like KG his skill set is very unqiue, with him stretching the floor even better, because of his letigimate 3pt range.

Someone asked the question, can a 19/10/3 guy be better than a 34/6/5 guy. I want to take it further here, can a 15/7/2 guy be better than a 34/5/6 guy?

His PS dropoff is quite similar to most other players discussed here as well.

So here is how they compare : (reference spreadsheet of Doc MJ)

Peak: Rasheed measure out at a +2.94 in 99, while Kobe comes in at +2.72 in 08 and 09.
5 year Prime (best years): Rasheed has a small edge again, at 12.74, Kobe at 12.65
10 year Prime : Rasheed at 20.72, Kobe at 19.11 , edge Sheed again
Longevity years:
-2 more years for Rasheed here that were not included, dumb sum +1.53
-4 more years of Kobe here that were not included, dumb sum +0.02 (13 missing as well)

So if consistency is a given here, what is stopping guys from voting for Rasheed over Kobe Bryant. Will Rasheed now get traction in the Top15?
RAPM tells us Sheed has a better peak, prime and longevity. Unlike someone like Ginobili, the reduced minute tag is not appropriate here. He played in many different setting, with different roles, so this should not go against him either.

Great question.

So in my spreadsheet right now I have it set to be sorted based on average performance of a player's top 5 seasons. To me it seems the best single snapshot to start with for any player where we were able to see enough of his longevity.

Sheed and Kobe happen to occupy adjacent places with scaled values of 7.57 & 7.52 respectively.

Now, as to the comparison between them: There's no way I'm ever going to favor a guy based on a lead that small. These two are in the same RAPM tier, so other factors are what I'd focus on. And Kobe takes that easily. You may see me being critical of Kobe's attitude but sweet Jesus, Sheed's a wackadoodle.

Sheed is a guy who is absolutely a superstar talent, but I don't feel like I can build a franchise around him. He can't be the strongest force in a locker room or he's a problem. if I'm drafting guys, Kobe vs Sheed, it's just no contest at all.

Now to the next question: How far does Sheed's wackjobian tendencies drop him in this list? This is a guy who never made the Top 100 before, and I'm saying that before intangibles he's on the same tier as Kobe. This at the very least would seem to have to make him have a huge leap in my personal list, no?

Yup. I was shocked at Sheed's numbers when I saw them. I'm not so much shocked at the peak as I am with the consistency. Rather like I am with Shaq, but even more so, I thought Sheed's issues had a bigger effect than they seem to have. I'm going to have to adjust, and I'm not yet sure what that's going to mean.

Now, you might say: Well, you value RAPM so much, you say he's on a tier with Kobe, you're going to have to vote for him soon.

I get that thinking, but I don't really expect to. He'll be in my Top 100 certainly, but I don't know where. One example of my thoughts:

I struggle to rank Sheed over Ben Wallace. In Detroit, Ben was guy whose shoulder that great team was built on, and it's not like Sheed had glaringly better RAPM while they were together, it was pretty close. Factor in the off-court credit Ben should get, to me it's pretty clear who deserves more credit for Detroit doing its thing.

It's the Portland years that put Sheed at another level according to RAPM...and it's the Portland years that cement Sheed's reputation as a presence so unstable and tantrum prone that Portland jettisoned him in what for anyone else would have been seen as the ideal time to have him as your star: His late 20s.

These are just not things I brush aside lightly.

Post #558 » by **trex_8063** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:53 pm

therealbig3 wrote:And Rasheed never really was in the same role as KG or Kobe. IMO, he was always a complementary player. He played for some really talented and well-balanced Portland squads, and then obviously Detroit. And even in Detroit, he was more of a missing piece, not the guy that held everything together and anchored the defense, so he wasn't like KG in Boston there, and he wasn't like Kobe when he was on some great Lakers teams. I felt like his responsibility was totally different, so a straight comparison of RAPM doesn't really work here.

Like HBK said, there needs to be more evidence than that. The people that use RAPM never used it as their sole evidence for KG.

I'm not entirely sure that is true (or at least that it has ALWAYS been true throughout this project).

therealbig3 wrote:I really take offense to when people say that the RAPM train rolled around and propped KG up over everyone else. That was only a part of the argument.

Context was explained, other non-box score metrics were used, the box score itself was used, and qualitative analysis of KG's actual game on both offense and defense was used.

Take away RAPM, and KG's case is still there.

NOW---in the voting for #11---Garnett is roughly right there in the mix without use of RAPM. Earlier in the project, however (namely when he was receiving votes for #4 and similar), RAPM was the overriding crux, if not essentially the entirety of the argument.
WHY is easy to understand: because it's the only metric that gives him a strong top 4 case. Scrutinizing various combinations of box score metrics, advanced stats, team successes or other accomplishments, statistical footprint, etc would generally all show him clearly outside the top 10.

I don't blame KG's proponents for continuing to bang the RAPM drum (why shouldn't they, when it shines so favorably on him?), now that there are a variety of other methods to show him as at least comparable to the people he's in competition with at this point in the project, too......RAPM could be the final weight to tip the scales in his favor for many who think it was close even without.

But several threads ago, RAPM was very nearly the ONLY drum being beaten in support of Garnett (because it was literally the only good argument that could be made for him that high). And that narrow focus---running in the face of multiple other methods which would paint a different picture---rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. That planted the seed of resentment about RAPM that we're now seeing come to fruition.

Because now after all this time (like EIGHT threads) of having this stat hammered at the masses........I think some are just getting tired of hearing about it. That's where the back-lash is coming from.

Post #559 » by **Doctor MJ** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 8:54 pm

pancakes3 wrote:So you all are actually going to vote in KG ahead of Kobe?

It's not a collective decision, it's a bunch individuals.

I am, many here aren't.

Notanoob · Post #560 » by **Notanoob** » Sun Jul 27, 2014 9:06 pm

lorak wrote:
RebelWithACause wrote:
Spoiler:
Now first off, this is a sincere post with sincere questions:

I do not keep an All-Time list, and this post is not meant to be pro Kobe or pro Garnett.
Just some things that popped up while reading through this thread.

How would you guys compare Rasheed Wallace to Kobe Bryant, if you place heavy emphasis RAPM and prefer Garnett to Bryant rather clearly.

RAPM shows Sheed as one of the most underrated players. He actually is a big minute player from 97-08. Those are 11 years he plays about 35 minutes in the RS and about 36 minutes in the PS.

He showed his consistent "impact" on wildly different teams with different roles. More of a primary option in Portland and like KG rather a defensive specialist in Detroit. The great portability is given here as well.
Like KG his skill set is very unqiue, with him stretching the floor even better, because of his letigimate 3pt range.

Someone asked the question, can a 19/10/3 guy be better than a 34/6/5 guy. I want to take it further here, can a 15/7/2 guy be better than a 34/5/6 guy?

His PS dropoff is quite similar to most other players discussed here as well.

So here is how they compare : (reference spreadsheet of Doc MJ)

Peak: Rasheed measure out at a +2.94 in 99, while Kobe comes in at +2.72 in 08 and 09.
5 year Prime (best years): Rasheed has a small edge again, at 12.74, Kobe at 12.65
10 year Prime : Rasheed at 20.72, Kobe at 19.11 , edge Sheed again
Longevity years:
-2 more years for Rasheed here that were not included, dumb sum +1.53
-4 more years of Kobe here that were not included, dumb sum +0.02 (13 missing as well)

So if consistency is a given here, what is stopping guys from voting for Rasheed over Kobe Bryant. Will Rasheed now get traction in the Top15?
RAPM tells us Sheed has a better peak, prime and longevity. Unlike someone like Ginobili, the reduced minute tag is not appropriate here. He played in many different setting, with different roles, so this should not go against him either.

I'm glad someone mentioned Rasheed, because he is one of the most underrated players ever. Unfortunately he never was a player to built a team around (like KB or KG). He was more like ultimate role player/2nd option and it would be interesting to see how he compares to for example Pippen.

ps
Winston (one of the first APM guys) several years ago published list of top 10 players of the decade ('00-'09) and Rasheed was 10th with +7.5 (Kobe 7th with +8.4 and KG 1st with +11.7)

Sheed is one of my all time favorite players, as a Pistons fan. I hope that he gets more traction in this project, because he really is a perfect player. He was a great post-up scorer and smart at passing out of the post, his jumper was reliable all the way to 3 point land, he was an excellent defender who locked up guys like Tim Duncan, he was strong enough to guard pretty much all non-Shaq centers, but still mobile and long enough to guard quick 4s, he was a solid shot-blocker and rebounded, and he had no issues with sharing the ball and being a second option. Really, if it weren't for his beef with refs, I think he'd get a lot more serious discussion.