Post#579 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Jul 27, 2014 10:25 pm
realbig3 is making a key point:
Those saying RAPM has been focused on since he started being championed are correct, and with each reference it made certain people more frustrated.
However, Garnett has also had all sorts of other analysis done in terms of his relationship with Duncan. These are two guys who are similar enough that there are many ways to compare them, and so they were explored thoroughly.
When you start getting into comparisons with other guys though, there are a lot of things that just can't be compared. We're talking KG vs Kobe now, so using that as an example, let's ponder:
Kobe's the better one at racking up points, KG's the better one at racking up recounds.
Kobe's the better offensive player, KG's the better defensive player.
Okay, then what?
I think if people are honest they're well aware of how hard it is to have a confident assessment of two players who play very, very different roles.
This is also a place where GMs & other decision makers tend not to have to think about that much. They think about it when they draft at the very top some years, but when else? How many teams truly get to decide whether they want Kobe or KG?
You just thank your lucky stars you get either of them, and then you build around them. And when you build around them you're considering the type of player as a large factor, and you only go with "best player available" when it's by a wide margin.
So what I'm saying is, this kind of comparison we're talking about, no one has ever actually been an expert at it. Two massively talented players with a wide variety of talents that are hard to even list out but deviate from each other significantly? How do you judge?
Ranking obsessives are the one's who've really done the most with this, and these are the type who come up with all-in-one stats. You go down that alleyway at all, and you don't see Kobe taking the clear nod over Garnett, and the moment you add +/- to the mix Garnett indisputably has the edge.
And people dislike this. They think it's deciding everything based on some obscure stat, and while I protest this oversimplification, let us think on the alternative:
What exactly makes anyone so confident that Kobe should rank ahead of KG?
I would submit it's really just two things:
1) A natural predisposition to favor a scorer.
2) The fact that Kobe's team won more.
And the thing is that everyone knows that neither of these things is a foolproof method. Everyone knows that there's more to the game than scoring, and everyone knows that a superior supporting cast (not even "supporting" in the case of Shaq) sways such factors.
So how are people so confident? Honestly I can never get there. Those are factors that are not to be ignored, and short of anything else can contribute to favoring a particular player, but the righteous rage people feel in someone reaching a differing conclusion is just alien to how I approach things.
Now here's another thing I find amazing:
If we look at raw +/-, just how a guy's team has done with him on the court, over the course of careers going all the way back as far as b-r has it in 2000. Here's some guys on the leader board:
Duncan +6901
Nowitzki +6091
James +4540
Garnett +4214
Bryant +4080
How the hell can Kobe lag so far behind? Kobe was on the Lakers for all this time. His team has been awesome. How can he be at around 4000 while Duncan is nearly 3000 ahead of him? How can LeBron surpass him while not even being on a good team until half a decade later? How can Garnett surpass him despite spending much of his prime on teams that everyone points out were so unsuccessful?
The reality is that no one would have predicted this before we had the data. Kobe's numbers lag behind what any of us would have thought. That's something real, and I don't really see how you can come across that and rationalize it away based on thinking focuses on the two points I listed above.
Now, some will point out that this is raw easily biased data...and of course that's why we have advanced metrics to adjust for it.
Last, this is regular season data, and the playoffs are a big deal of course. As always I expect some to just point to that and say that that only means that Kobe raised his game that much in the playoffs. I'm certainly not saying to ignore the playoffs, but realistically I can't use that to explain away stuff like this so easily.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board
Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
