'17-'18 POY discussion

[trex_8063]

Round 1 could be extremely interesting with Curry out depending on who they draw.

Not wishing for injuries and want to see Curry come back but if he's gonna be out in round 1, man I hope GSW draws Utah or OKC. I want them knocked out in round 1 lol.

Otherwise if Curry is gonna come back healthy and GSW is gonna survive, give me a fully healthy Rockets vs GSW WCF but at that point GSW will be the fav IMO to win it all. Even without Curry GSW is a fav to win at least round 1.

They're not gonna draw OKC. OKC's hit their stride (or at least close enough to it), they're going to finish 5th at worst. I'm not sure if it will happen (or if this team also will move above 7th), but I think drawing Utah would be the most interesting.
I knew they were doing really well since getting their roster [mostly] healthy again, but I didn't realize just how well: the Jazz are 23-4 in their last 27! They are bloody terrifying as a 7-seed, if that's how it shapes out, and are certainly capable of upsetting the Warriors without Curry.

[dhsilv2]

Curry with no chance to play in the first round. That's pretty rough.

That could make things interesting [potentially, anyway]. If they get matched up against a fully healthy Jazz team, for instance......I'd not be surprised if a healthy Jazz team gives a Curry-less Warriors team a run for their money. Could easily see that series going 7 games, at least.

I just wish they had a JR Smith or Joe Johnson type off the bench who could give them a nice scoring role player minutes.

[Dr Spaceman]

Curry with no chance to play in the first round. That's pretty rough.

That could make things interesting [potentially, anyway]. If they get matched up against a fully healthy Jazz team, for instance......I'd not be surprised if a healthy Jazz team gives a Curry-less Warriors team a run for their money. Could easily see that series going 7 games, at least.

I just wish they had a JR Smith or Joe Johnson type off the bench who could give them a nice scoring role player minutes.

Well they had Rodney Hood but decided to cast him off.

The guy I’m really looking at though is Exum. He looked phenomenal last night against the C’s. He’s always had eye-popping athleticism but in the past played way out of control and lacked touch around the rim. That seems to be rectified now. He’s only played 6 games this year, but if he continues to look like this the Jazz actually may have one wing too many, even with Hood’s departure. A good problem to have, to be sure.

Having a guy who can create looks out of the air does make a difference in the playoffs though. But the Jazz are able to get 48 minutes of good point guard play by staggering Ricky and Mitchell, and have Favors to get some buckets in their bench lineups. He’s quite a good offensive big man. I dunno, with all the shooting they seem to have something about those lineups just works, even if they may lack traditional creators. Ingles is another guy who can run a decent offense when he’s out there with bench guys.

[dhsilv2]

That could make things interesting [potentially, anyway]. If they get matched up against a fully healthy Jazz team, for instance......I'd not be surprised if a healthy Jazz team gives a Curry-less Warriors team a run for their money. Could easily see that series going 7 games, at least.

I just wish they had a JR Smith or Joe Johnson type off the bench who could give them a nice scoring role player minutes.

Well they had Rodney Hood but decided to cast him off.

The guy I’m really looking at though is Exum. He looked phenomenal last night against the C’s. He’s always had eye-popping athleticism but in the past played way out of control and lacked touch around the rim. That seems to be rectified now. He’s only played 6 games this year, but if he continues to look like this the Jazz actually may have one wing too many, even with Hood’s departure. A good problem to have, to be sure.

Having a guy who can create looks out of the air does make a difference in the playoffs though. But the Jazz are able to get 48 minutes of good point guard play by staggering Ricky and Mitchell, and have Favors to get some buckets in their bench lineups. He’s quite a good offensive big man. I dunno, with all the shooting they seem to have something about those lineups just works, even if they may lack traditional creators. Ingles is another guy who can run a decent offense when he’s out there with bench guys.

Wasn't Joe on the team to start the year? That was more my point but really they just need someone if their ROOKIE can't score in a playoff game. But yeah great stuff man.

[ardee]

On the topic of the Jazz, man, all I can say is if they somehow kept Hayward with this team, they might have been the 3rd best team in the league.

[bondom34]

Figured this was the spot for it because I never hear about him in the roy race but John Collins us having a great rookie year in Atlanta.

[eminence]

That could make things interesting [potentially, anyway]. If they get matched up against a fully healthy Jazz team, for instance......I'd not be surprised if a healthy Jazz team gives a Curry-less Warriors team a run for their money. Could easily see that series going 7 games, at least.

I just wish they had a JR Smith or Joe Johnson type off the bench who could give them a nice scoring role player minutes.

Well they had Rodney Hood but decided to cast him off.

The guy I’m really looking at though is Exum. He looked phenomenal last night against the C’s. He’s always had eye-popping athleticism but in the past played way out of control and lacked touch around the rim. That seems to be rectified now. He’s only played 6 games this year, but if he continues to look like this the Jazz actually may have one wing too many, even with Hood’s departure. A good problem to have, to be sure.

Having a guy who can create looks out of the air does make a difference in the playoffs though. But the Jazz are able to get 48 minutes of good point guard play by staggering Ricky and Mitchell, and have Favors to get some buckets in their bench lineups. He’s quite a good offensive big man. I dunno, with all the shooting they seem to have something about those lineups just works, even if they may lack traditional creators. Ingles is another guy who can run a decent offense when he’s out there with bench guys.

Exum's been great since he came back from injury, finishing at the rim better than ever, still that same crazy athlete. Always seems to bring good energy to the team.

[bondom34]

I called it on twitter, no Curry and I pick Utah over GSW.

[Mystical Apples]

I called it on twitter, no Curry and I pick Utah over GSW.

Catching Minnesota with a reasonably healthy Jimmy wouldn’t be great for GSW.

[dhsilv2]

I called it on twitter, no Curry and I pick Utah over GSW.

I'm not betting on a rookie to keep up that scoring load in the playoffs. But it'll be interesting to see.

[Gibson22]

Uhm i'm sorry this is off topic, but who was voted as player of the year 2017? To me it was clearly lebron, unarguably more than 2016

[Doctor MJ]

Uhm i'm sorry this is off topic, but who was voted as player of the year 2017? To me it was clearly lebron, unarguably more than 2016

LeBron


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

[MisterHibachi]

What do you guys make of Harden's recent three point slump? Down to 36% on the year now.

[Senior]

What do you guys make of Harden's recent three point slump? Down to 36% on the year now.

IIRC he was shooting some insane/unsustainable percentage (maybe from isolation?) at the start of the year so...I can't say I'm surprised he's come back down to earth. No one apart from Curry has shown they could maintain 40+%s on high volume, particularly with the type of threes they were taking. Even then, the volatility of the three reared its ugly head at the worst time for Steph.

[MisterHibachi]

What do you guys make of Harden's recent three point slump? Down to 36% on the year now.

IIRC he was shooting some insane/unsustainable percentage (maybe from isolation?) at the start of the year so...I can't say I'm surprised he's come back down to earth. No one apart from Curry has shown they could maintain 40+%s on high volume, particularly with the type of threes they were taking. Even then, the volatility of the three reared its ugly head at the worst time for Steph.

Last I saw, he was shooting like 40% just on isolation threes, and was close to 50% on one particular side of the floor. That number shouldn't have dropped too much.

This was two weeks ago: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1688756#start_here

[dontcalltimeout]

What do you guys make of Harden's recent three point slump? Down to 36% on the year now.

IIRC he was shooting some insane/unsustainable percentage (maybe from isolation?) at the start of the year so...I can't say I'm surprised he's come back down to earth. No one apart from Curry has shown they could maintain 40+%s on high volume, particularly with the type of threes they were taking. Even then, the volatility of the three reared its ugly head at the worst time for Steph.

Last I saw, he was shooting like 40% just on isolation threes, and was close to 50% on one particular side of the floor. That number shouldn't have dropped too much.

This was two weeks ago: viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1688756#start_here

Based on synergy data, these are the plays his three-point attempts are coming from. I split it up bw pre and post all-star and added last year's data for historical context.

The majority of his attempts come from isolations, then PNRs followed by spot-up and transition opportunities.

Spoiler:

My takeaways:

He's attempting more threes from isolations than pre-all star and way more than he did last yr. Post all star, he's shooting fewer threes off PNR's than pre all star (and fewer than last yr as well).

Pre all star he shot 42% on threes from isolations and 49% on threes in transition. Those wild percentages have come down to earth (though still slightly above last yr's averages).

His % from PNRs have actually improved to decent levels, but he hasn't taken a lot. He's shot weirdly poorly on catch and shoot threes, but those averages should come up.

IMO his efficiency in taking threes from ISOs explains most of the difference. He was ridiculous most of the yr and i think we should expect him to shoot closer to the 30-31% that he has shot the past 6 weeks (and did last yr).

[Pillendreher]

Pre ASB he was taking 8.2 pull up 3s per game and made 39.3 % of them. Since the ASB he has taken 6.9 per game and has made 32.3 % of them. I guess at some point that was bound to happen.

[Doctor MJ]

I just posted a list on the GB thread, thought I'd share here:

1. Harden
2. Paul
3. Lillard
4. LeBron
5. Embiid

I think most will see Houston having the top 2 guys as crazy, but these are 2 top tier superstars leading by far the best team this regular season, and the next closest contender is Lillard.

LeBron I characterize as "no excuses". I"m done with giving LeBron a boost based on any sort of "weak supporting cast". This is the bed he has made, including the midseason siesta he took, and he'll have to lie in it.

Embiid is there at this point as something on an honorary position. If he returns and plays well in the playoffs, he'll probably rise higher in my list. I'm going to guess by regular season's end though someone else jumps him.

[PaulieWal]

I just posted a list on the GB thread, thought I'd share here:

1. Harden
2. Paul
3. Lillard
4. LeBron
5. Embiid

I think most will see Houston having the top 2 guys as crazy, but these are 2 top tier superstars leading by far the best team this regular season, and the next closest contender is Lillard.

LeBron I characterize as "no excuses". I"m done with giving LeBron a boost based on any sort of "weak supporting cast". This is the bed he has made, including the midseason siesta he took, and he'll have to lie in it.

Embiid is there at this point as something on an honorary position. If he returns and plays well in the playoffs, he'll probably rise higher in my list. I'm going to guess by regular season's end though someone else jumps him.

Not a bad list but would you mind talking about Lillard over LeBron?

You could argue both at this point are mostly offensive players but LeBron gets a massive edge on defense just by the virtue of his size and defensive IQ whenever he feels like turning it on. And if we are going offense only, LeBron is still better than Lillard offensively to me.

[bondom34]

I'm still lost on who's even in my 5 after Harden.