2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[70sFan]

How can you take 45 threes when you can't make one for the whole game? Like seriously, how is that possible that Heat didn't try to generate some points inside the three point line? This is where I absolutely hate modern basketball - you feel fine when you get open threes even if you can't make it. It looks almost like coaches feel rewarded when they get open look, without taking score into account.

Just horrible night for Miami and Boston didn't play well either. Very disappointing conference finals after a great second round. I feel like Warriors are clear favorites right now, Celtics offense is inept.

[Gooner]

How can you take 45 threes when you can't make one for the whole game? Like seriously, how is that possible that Heat didn't try to generate some points inside the three point line? This is where I absolutely hate modern basketball - you feel fine when you get open threes even if you can't make it. It looks almost like coaches feel rewarded when they get open look, without taking score into account.

Just horrible night for Miami and Boston didn't play well either. Very disappointing conference finals after a great second round. I feel like Warriors are clear favorites right now, Celtics offense is inept.

This is what "analytics" consider tha best way to play basketball. Every game is now a 3 point contest with both teams running up and down taking turns.

[70sFan]

How can you take 45 threes when you can't make one for the whole game? Like seriously, how is that possible that Heat didn't try to generate some points inside the three point line? This is where I absolutely hate modern basketball - you feel fine when you get open threes even if you can't make it. It looks almost like coaches feel rewarded when they get open look, without taking score into account.

Just horrible night for Miami and Boston didn't play well either. Very disappointing conference finals after a great second round. I feel like Warriors are clear favorites right now, Celtics offense is inept.

This is what "analytics" consider tha best way to play basketball. Every game is now a 3 point contest with both teams running up and down taking turns.

No, analytics won't tell you that you shouldn't work to get inside shots. Nice try, but failed.

[HeartBreakKid]

How can you take 45 threes when you can't make one for the whole game? Like seriously, how is that possible that Heat didn't try to generate some points inside the three point line? This is where I absolutely hate modern basketball - you feel fine when you get open threes even if you can't make it. It looks almost like coaches feel rewarded when they get open look, without taking score into account.

Just horrible night for Miami and Boston didn't play well either. Very disappointing conference finals after a great second round. I feel like Warriors are clear favorites right now, Celtics offense is inept.

This is what "analytics" consider tha best way to play basketball. Every game is now a 3 point contest with both teams running up and down taking turns.

Analytics don't say to do that at all, and why did you put it in quotes?

It amazes me that you said this knowing full well you never read any analysis on the topic.

[Statlanta]

The analytics said the Heat are the best 3pt shooting team in the league without taking into account 16 games in their division against play-in/lottery teams and the injured teams this season.

Teams are going to shoot because the conference Finals teams are usually the best shooting RS teams.

[Texas Chuck]

I didn't catch the game, but if they were open 3's I have zero issues with them continuing to take them, just like I've had zero issues with the Mavs continuing to take them in games where they are missing.

Good shots are good shots and you shouldn't pass them up because Chuck and Shaq are going to talk about taking it to the hole. The EV of those shots is high. Sometimes you just don't make them.

[Gooner]

How can you take 45 threes when you can't make one for the whole game? Like seriously, how is that possible that Heat didn't try to generate some points inside the three point line? This is where I absolutely hate modern basketball - you feel fine when you get open threes even if you can't make it. It looks almost like coaches feel rewarded when they get open look, without taking score into account.

Just horrible night for Miami and Boston didn't play well either. Very disappointing conference finals after a great second round. I feel like Warriors are clear favorites right now, Celtics offense is inept.

This is what "analytics" consider tha best way to play basketball. Every game is now a 3 point contest with both teams running up and down taking turns.

No, analytics won't tell you that you shouldn't work to get inside shots. Nice try, but failed.

Analytics don't understand tactical nature of the game and playing with the flow. This style of play that you are complaining about is the product of analytics, whether you like it or not.

[Colbinii]

This is what "analytics" consider tha best way to play basketball. Every game is now a 3 point contest with both teams running up and down taking turns.

No, analytics won't tell you that you shouldn't work to get inside shots. Nice try, but failed.

Analytics don't understand tactical nature of the game and playing with the flow. This style of play that you are complaining about is the product of analytics, whether you like it or not.

Alright Kendrick Perkins

[falcolombardi]

when you get open 3's constantly it means almost by definition than the inside ia being more tightly guarded

less defense outside=more defense inside

so there is a touch choice between taking the open shot you are not making or driving into the crowded paint where you are less likely to make it

that is why games sonetimes feel like they becone 3-pount contests, the defense is packed in inside and tge offense cannot hit a shot to save their lives to make them extend their coverage

and remember, these players dont know with hundsight they are gonna end 0-27 from 3 and are not thinking about how bad their 3 point shooting mark will look after the game, they are just thinking of scoring in the next possesion and finding what they consider the best shot for it

i get 70's fan point, but at the same time there is a reason why it happens, and if ahythingh, not taking any more 3's exacerbates the problem with the interior defense

is the bad shooter dillema applied to a whole team, them shooting is bad but them never shooting is also a issue

[MartinToVaught]

I think analytics actually are to blame to some degree. Not because they're inherently bad or anything - as a baseball fan, I wish every sport would catch up to the sophistication and depth of sabermetrics - but because teams have a tendency to overdo it at the expense of common sense.

For example, the Rays pulling Blake Snell in Game 6 of the World Series after five innings of one-hit ball, only to watch their bullpen blow the game, was the triumph of analytics over common sense. Likewise, teams like the Heat last night or the Rockets in their infamous 0-27 game a few years ago are also classic examples of analytics winning out over common sense. I think teams around the league have gotten a little too wrapped up in the logic of 3 > 2 and feel like they're making a kneejerk overreaction if they adjust when the threes aren't falling, because the next hot streak is surely around the corner.

We have teams like Houston, Dallas and OKC that were 4th, 6th and 8th in three-pointers attempted per game but 20th, 15th and 30th in three-point percentage respectively, so even across a whole season, whether or not a team actually makes their threes doesn't seem to make much of a difference on how often they chuck them up. It's definitely a problem, and the 3 > 2 mantra has just exacerbated the problem.

[Colbinii]

I think analytics actually are to blame to some degree. Not because they're inherently bad or anything - as a baseball fan, I wish every sport would catch up to the sophistication and depth of sabermetrics - but because teams have a tendency to overdo it at the expense of common sense.

For example, the Rays pulling Blake Snell in Game 6 of the World Series after five innings of one-hit ball, only to watch their bullpen blow the game, was the triumph of analytics over common sense. Likewise, teams like the Heat last night or the Rockets in their infamous 0-27 game a few years ago are also classic examples of analytics winning out over common sense. I think teams around the league have gotten a little too wrapped up in the logic of 3 > 2 and feel like they're making a kneejerk overreaction if they adjust when the threes aren't falling, because the next hot streak is surely around the corner.

We have teams like Houston, Dallas and OKC that were 4th, 6th and 8th in three-pointers attempted per game but 20th, 15th and 30th in three-point percentage respectively, so even across a whole season, whether or not a team actually makes their threes doesn't seem to make much of a difference on how often they chuck them up. It's definitely a problem, and the 3 > 2 mantra has just exacerbated the problem.

So you think OKC, who was below average from midrange in terms of efficiency, should have shot more midrange shots?

[70sFan]

This is what "analytics" consider tha best way to play basketball. Every game is now a 3 point contest with both teams running up and down taking turns.

No, analytics won't tell you that you shouldn't work to get inside shots. Nice try, but failed.

Analytics don't understand tactical nature of the game and playing with the flow. This style of play that you are complaining about is the product of analytics, whether you like it or not.

Bunch of sentences without qny sense.

[70sFan]

I didn't catch the game, but if they were open 3's I have zero issues with them continuing to take them, just like I've had zero issues with the Mavs continuing to take them in games where they are missing.

Good shots are good shots and you shouldn't pass them up because Chuck and Shaq are going to talk about taking it to the hole. The EV of those shots is high. Sometimes you just don't make them.

I'm not saying that Heat shouldn't take open threes anymore, but in this particular game they were extremely cold from outside and they should try something new, make the offense more nuanced. I wouldn't change a thing in Heat approach in next games, but in game adjustments are important.

[70sFan]

when you get open 3's constantly it means almost by definition than the inside ia being more tightly guarded

less defense outside=more defense inside

so there is a touch choice between taking the open shot you are not making or driving into the crowded paint where you are less likely to make it

that is why games sonetimes feel like they becone 3-pount contests, the defense is packed in inside and tge offense cannot hit a shot to save their lives to make them extend their coverage

and remember, these players dont know with hundsight they are gonna end 0-27 from 3 and are not thinking about how bad their 3 point shooting mark will look after the game, they are just thinking of scoring in the next possesion and finding what they consider the best shot for it

i get 70's fan point, but at the same time there is a reason why it happens, and if ahythingh, not taking any more 3's exacerbates the problem with the interior defense

is the bad shooter dillema applied to a whole team, them shooting is bad but them never shooting is also a issue

I get the point and we shouldn't go with "stop shooting Miami!", BUT:

1. Celtics didn't clog the paint. That's not the case in this game.

2. They should try to get more inside looks. Most of their actions were focused on getting open three. Players also hunted for open shota and although In most cases it's a great thing to do, there are moments when you shouldn't keep doing the same thing if it's not working.

Maybe Miami don't have the personel to do that and I overrate them, but I think it's not true. Bam did absolutely nothing for example in that second half.

[falcolombardi]

when you get open 3's constantly it means almost by definition than the inside ia being more tightly guarded

less defense outside=more defense inside

so there is a touch choice between taking the open shot you are not making or driving into the crowded paint where you are less likely to make it

that is why games sonetimes feel like they becone 3-pount contests, the defense is packed in inside and tge offense cannot hit a shot to save their lives to make them extend their coverage

and remember, these players dont know with hundsight they are gonna end 0-27 from 3 and are not thinking about how bad their 3 point shooting mark will look after the game, they are just thinking of scoring in the next possesion and finding what they consider the best shot for it

i get 70's fan point, but at the same time there is a reason why it happens, and if ahythingh, not taking any more 3's exacerbates the problem with the interior defense

is the bad shooter dillema applied to a whole team, them shooting is bad but them never shooting is also a issue

I get the point and we shouldn't go with "stop shooting Miami!", BUT:

1. Celtics didn't clog the paint. That's not the case in this game.

2. They should try to get more inside looks. Most of their actions were focused on getting open three. Players also hunted for open shota and although In most cases it's a great thing to do, there are moments when you shouldn't keep doing the same thing if it's not working.

Maybe Miami don't have the personel to do that and I overrate them, but I think it's not true. Bam did absolutely nothing for example in that second half.

bam doesnt have a great scoring game tho i dont think he was gonna be the answer for miami offense issues

i think buttler clearly being hurt affected miami too much, butler is their best player at getting to the rim and drawing free throws but he was settling for shooting airballs instead which is clearly not the norm for him

maybe dipo or herro could have tried to take the role but they are not exactly guys who can easily blow by boston strong perimeter defenders then score against boston rim protection

[dontcalltimeout]

when you get open 3's constantly it means almost by definition than the inside ia being more tightly guarded

less defense outside=more defense inside

so there is a touch choice between taking the open shot you are not making or driving into the crowded paint where you are less likely to make it

that is why games sonetimes feel like they becone 3-pount contests, the defense is packed in inside and tge offense cannot hit a shot to save their lives to make them extend their coverage

and remember, these players dont know with hundsight they are gonna end 0-27 from 3 and are not thinking about how bad their 3 point shooting mark will look after the game, they are just thinking of scoring in the next possesion and finding what they consider the best shot for it

i get 70's fan point, but at the same time there is a reason why it happens, and if ahythingh, not taking any more 3's exacerbates the problem with the interior defense

is the bad shooter dillema applied to a whole team, them shooting is bad but them never shooting is also a issue

I get the point and we shouldn't go with "stop shooting Miami!", BUT:

1. Celtics didn't clog the paint. That's not the case in this game.

2. They should try to get more inside looks. Most of their actions were focused on getting open three. Players also hunted for open shota and although In most cases it's a great thing to do, there are moments when you shouldn't keep doing the same thing if it's not working.

Maybe Miami don't have the personel to do that and I overrate them, but I think it's not true. Bam did absolutely nothing for example in that second half.

Wait, you don't think Boston was clogging the paint?

Regarding getting inside looks: at least partially, it's a chicken and the egg thing. The pitiful shooting means Boston has gotten more and more comfortable the last 2.5 games just sagging off everyone. Miami hasn't been able to make Boston pay for dropping on screens because the guys that supposedly do that, Lowry and Strus, have been as cold as winter on Mars.

The other guys who can play inside are Bam and Butler. Bam has never been the guy to force the issue if you load up on him, and Butler has just not been the same explosive guy since the injury in game 3.

[70sFan]

when you get open 3's constantly it means almost by definition than the inside ia being more tightly guarded

less defense outside=more defense inside

so there is a touch choice between taking the open shot you are not making or driving into the crowded paint where you are less likely to make it

that is why games sonetimes feel like they becone 3-pount contests, the defense is packed in inside and tge offense cannot hit a shot to save their lives to make them extend their coverage

and remember, these players dont know with hundsight they are gonna end 0-27 from 3 and are not thinking about how bad their 3 point shooting mark will look after the game, they are just thinking of scoring in the next possesion and finding what they consider the best shot for it

i get 70's fan point, but at the same time there is a reason why it happens, and if ahythingh, not taking any more 3's exacerbates the problem with the interior defense

is the bad shooter dillema applied to a whole team, them shooting is bad but them never shooting is also a issue

I get the point and we shouldn't go with "stop shooting Miami!", BUT:

1. Celtics didn't clog the paint. That's not the case in this game.

2. They should try to get more inside looks. Most of their actions were focused on getting open three. Players also hunted for open shota and although In most cases it's a great thing to do, there are moments when you shouldn't keep doing the same thing if it's not working.

Maybe Miami don't have the personel to do that and I overrate them, but I think it's not true. Bam did absolutely nothing for example in that second half.

Wait, you don't think Boston was clogging the paint?

Regarding getting inside looks: at least partially, it's a chicken and the egg thing. The pitiful shooting means Boston has gotten more and more comfortable the last 2.5 games just sagging off everyone. Miami hasn't been able to make Boston pay for dropping on screens because the guys that supposedly do that, Lowry and Strus, have been as cold as winter on Mars.

The other guys who can play inside are Bam and Butler. Bam has never been the guy to force the issue if you load up on him, and Butler has just not been the same explosive guy since the injury in game 3.

I mean, most of these screenshots doesn't show anything atypical. Celtics shorten passing lanes and minimalize openings for slashers, but I wouldn't call that clogging the paint.

Maybe my brain watched too many pre-1980 games, but this is nothing that couldn't be overcome.

I agree that Miami don't have ideal roster for punishing Celtics inside, but there were moments in the game when they should have been more agressive, but as the lead grew they tried harder and harder to take threes. Maybe frustration was the part of that as well

[dontcalltimeout]

I mean, most of these screenshots doesn't show anything atypical. Celtics shorten passing lanes and minimalize openings for slashers, but I wouldn't call that clogging the paint.

Maybe my brain watched too many pre-1980 games, but this is nothing that couldn't be overcome.

It's not atypical for the team that was best team in the league at preventing opponent attempts at the rim.

This is also the same team that, per tracking data, moved the least distance on defense and was slowest in average speed on defense.

To me, that's a trend about this specific defense, not something that's typical for all defenses in the league.

I do agree that guys could be more aggressive. The lack of foul drawing is a major sign of that. Butler might be afraid of getting wrecked at the rim against Timelord and Horford, but he could force the issue more and try to get some calls.

[falcolombardi]

I get the point and we shouldn't go with "stop shooting Miami!", BUT:

1. Celtics didn't clog the paint. That's not the case in this game.

2. They should try to get more inside looks. Most of their actions were focused on getting open three. Players also hunted for open shota and although In most cases it's a great thing to do, there are moments when you shouldn't keep doing the same thing if it's not working.

Maybe Miami don't have the personel to do that and I overrate them, but I think it's not true. Bam did absolutely nothing for example in that second half.

Wait, you don't think Boston was clogging the paint?

Regarding getting inside looks: at least partially, it's a chicken and the egg thing. The pitiful shooting means Boston has gotten more and more comfortable the last 2.5 games just sagging off everyone. Miami hasn't been able to make Boston pay for dropping on screens because the guys that supposedly do that, Lowry and Strus, have been as cold as winter on Mars.

The other guys who can play inside are Bam and Butler. Bam has never been the guy to force the issue if you load up on him, and Butler has just not been the same explosive guy since the injury in game 3.

I mean, most of these screenshots doesn't show anything atypical. Celtics shorten passing lanes and minimalize openings for slashers, but I wouldn't call that clogging the paint.

Maybe my brain watched too many pre-1980 games, but this is nothing that couldn't be overcome.

I agree that Miami don't have ideal roster for punishing Celtics inside, but there were moments in the game when they should have been more agressive, but as the lead grew they tried harder and harder to take threes. Maybe frustration was the part of that as well

pre 80's ball averaged 102~ points per 100 at best, 2020's ball averaged 112

what was good enough scoring pre 80's is a -10 offense today, and that is before accounting for modern players not playing a midrange based game so they wouldnt be as good at playing that kind of basketball

playing a pre 80's style game spacing inside and shot profile wise is basically a 10~ point handicap

[tsherkin]

pre 80's ball averaged 102~ points per 100 at best, 2020's ball averaged 112

what was good enough scoring pre 80's is a -10 offense today, and that is before accounting for modern players not playing a midrange based game so they wouldnt be as good at playing that kind of basketball

playing a pre 80's style game spacing inside and shot profile wise is basically a 10~ point handicap

I don't think that was his point. I think he was noting that the number of defenders in space down in the paint was something manageable for a lot of the more powerful/creative finishers, etc. If you're getting forced out to 8, 10 feet and taking a 40% jumper without drawing a foul, that's one thing, but if you're able to get TO the basket for a high-efficiency finish and/or drawn contact, then that's something else.

I do see your point, though. Obviously, it's a very, very different league and you can't do the same things you used to. Hell, the 05 Suns would only be ranked 6th in ORTG this year, and the 87 Lakers would be third. Kind of puts into perspective league offensive efficiecy, no doubt. Teams are shooting about 24% of their shots from 0-3 feet this year and about 40% of their shots from 3. In 1998, they shot about 28.5% of their shots at the rim and about 16% from 3. From 10-23 feet, teams shot about 16.5% of their shots this year, and about 37% of their shots in 1998.

So to circle back to the root issue here, it's more the mid-range jumpers which aren't happening as much. Which makes sense, because their relative efficiency is a weaker option than getting to the rim or taking the 3. But you also suffer from higher variance from taking those further shots, so we've seen teams like the Warriors who are able to do a little more in between are more resilient offenses. There are things you can do besides rim shots and 3s, but teams in the league will always trend out and then you'll have the good ones who know what they're doing and then sort of everyone else.

Miami was a +1.8% rTS team at 113.7 ORTG (+1.7), ranked 10th in the league on O. Butler and Lowry look very much hampered by injury. Aside from shooting 4/8 one game, Robinson is otherwise 3/15 from 3 in the series. Etc etc etc. Miami just doesn't have the health right now. If Lowry and Butler were healthy enough, we might be seeing things a little differently, but they simply aren't putting enough pressure on Boston's defense.