2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[parsnips33]

I kinda predict a series against Boston moves into small ball very quickly. Will be very interesting to see what Horford and Looney's roles in that matchup would be

You mean Robert Williams and Looney?

I think Williams is too important to their defense, although I suppose Horford is too

I guess I just think he's a bit more capable of switching and recovering

[LA Bird]

538 model gave the Warriors under 1% chance to make the finals before the season

WE BELIEVE PART 2

538 model perenially underates or overates some teams

i still remember how it hated the lakers in 2020 or loved the celtics every year including 2021

On 538, the Celtics currently have an ELO rating of 1761 - second highest in franchise history behind only the legendary 1986 team. If they win the title this year, they will low key finish with one of the highest year end ELO ratings of all time.

[jalengreen]

538 model gave the Warriors under 1% chance to make the finals before the season

WE BELIEVE PART 2

538 model perenially underates or overates some teams

i still remember how it hated the lakers in 2020 or loved the celtics every year including 2021

IIRC it had the rockets as favorites to win the finals even while down 1-2 to the lakers in R2. and i believe it had the celtics as favorites to win while they were down vs the heat in ECF and the lakers were up in the WCF

that was hilarious

[eminence]

warriors against the grizzlies without morant (games 4-6)
102 offensive rating

warriors in the rest of the playoffs
120+ offensive rating

i am actually intrigued, did memphis show the blueprint of how to stop this warriors offense (boston defensive personnel is probably stronger/mpre athletic and switchable than the grizzlies )

or was it just a small sample outlier in what has otherwise been a pristine offensive run by the warriors?

boston defense is gonna be the ultimate test to warriors playoffs offense resiliency, if they can generate decent offende against boston the series is probably theirs

if they are held down to 102~ offensive ratings throufh the series like the grizzlies did once morant went down? i may take boston at that point

I wouldn't read too much into it, just a tiny sample, that they seemed to have moved past by game 6.

Game 4 caught by surprise/had a poor game/went up against a strong new defense, then whatever the hell that game 5 was.

[Dr Positivity]

I have the Celtics as a bad matchup for the Warriors so I favor them

[Colbinii]

I have the Celtics as a bad matchup for the Warriors so I favor them

The only bad matchup for the Warriors since 2015 is LeBron James and injuries.

[The-Power]

warriors against the grizzlies without morant (games 4-6)
102 offensive rating

warriors in the rest of the playoffs
120+ offensive rating

i am actually intrigued, did memphis show the blueprint of how to stop this warriors offense (boston defensive personnel is probably stronger/mpre athletic and switchable than the grizzlies )

or was it just a small sample outlier in what has otherwise been a pristine offensive run by the warriors?

boston defense is gonna be the ultimate test to warriors playoffs offense resiliency, if they can generate decent offende against boston the series is probably theirs

if they are held down to 102~ offensive ratings throufh the series like the grizzlies did once morant went down? i may take boston at that point

I wouldn't read too much into it, just a tiny sample, that they seemed to have moved past by game 6.

Game 4 caught by surprise/had a poor game/went up against a strong new defense, then whatever the hell that game 5 was.

Agreed. Not to mention that the Warriors had a 116.9 ORTG over the first three games as opposed to a 99.7 ORTG over the last three games (according to nba.com). Morant is a really bad defender but obviously he doesn't cause a 17 point swing in DRTG by himself. So I'd chalk it about to small sample size.

That being said, the Celtics are as well-equipped to stifle the Warriors offense as anyone (although they don't force as many turnovers as Memphis, or Miami for that matter, which is an Achilles heel for the Dubs). So I wouldn't be surprised if the Celtics can slow down the Warriors offense considerably – even though anything close to a 100 ORTG is obviously unrealistic.

[falcolombardi]

warriors against the grizzlies without morant (games 4-6)
102 offensive rating

warriors in the rest of the playoffs
120+ offensive rating

i am actually intrigued, did memphis show the blueprint of how to stop this warriors offense (boston defensive personnel is probably stronger/mpre athletic and switchable than the grizzlies )

or was it just a small sample outlier in what has otherwise been a pristine offensive run by the warriors?

boston defense is gonna be the ultimate test to warriors playoffs offense resiliency, if they can generate decent offende against boston the series is probably theirs

if they are held down to 102~ offensive ratings throufh the series like the grizzlies did once morant went down? i may take boston at that point

I wouldn't read too much into it, just a tiny sample, that they seemed to have moved past by game 6.

Game 4 caught by surprise/had a poor game/went up against a strong new defense, then whatever the hell that game 5 was.

i am just curious tbh, warriors motion offense against a defense like a boston is just a fascinating matchup

[RCM88x]

I have the Celtics as a bad matchup for the Warriors so I favor them

The only bad matchup for the Warriors since 2015 is LeBron James and injuries.

And fully healthy 2015 & 2022 Grizzlies

[eminence]

Good effort from the Heat early, I'm loving it.

[falcolombardi]

this is probably gonna be the only close game in the series lol

[Fadeaway_J]

this is probably gonna be the only close game in the series lol

Still time for it to turn into a blowout...

[jalengreen]

great half from butler. max strus has been disastrous this series

[falcolombardi]

i still think butler has been the best player in the playoffs so far

giannis and jokic may have been better but they played fewer series which counts here

curry, tatum, luka and draymond a tad behind each i think

[jalengreen]

i still think butler has been the best player in the playoffs so far

giannis and jokic may have been better but they played fewer series which counts here

curry, tatum, luka and draymond a tad behind each i think

i'm kinda surprised by how high you are on draymond. noticed you had him on your all-playoff first team too (so far). perhaps i'm underrating him

[falcolombardi]

i still think butler has been the best player in the playoffs so far

giannis and jokic may have been better but they played fewer series which counts here

curry, tatum, luka and draymond a tad behind each i think

i'm kinda surprised by how high you are on draymond. noticed you had him on your all-playoff first team too (so far). perhaps i'm underrating him

if anythingh i think i am lower on him than many here who are much higher on his offense/passing than me, i think he is not that good of a playmaker as many have him (still good)and i think his lack of scoring/shooting is a more exploitable weakness by the right defense (even in warruors system) that people here think, and kinda expect it to show against boston

but he gets a ton of credit as the leader of warriors great defense and one of the best defenders in this generation, and my playoffs best players list is weighted towards players who played more series (hence why i put draymond over jokic although jokic was better in their series)

[jalengreen]

i still think butler has been the best player in the playoffs so far

giannis and jokic may have been better but they played fewer series which counts here

curry, tatum, luka and draymond a tad behind each i think

i'm kinda surprised by how high you are on draymond. noticed you had him on your all-playoff first team too (so far). perhaps i'm underrating him

if anythingh i think i am lower on him than many here who are much higher on his offense/passing than me

but he gets a ton of credit as the leader of warriors great defense and my playoffs best players list is weighted towards players who played more series (hence why i put draymond over jokic although jokic was better in their series)

in general im very high on draymond, i think he might be my DPOY (reg ssn + playoffs). just didnt think he's been *that*impressive in the postseason. might be crazy but i think horford might even have a case over him, i felt dray underperformed versus memphis in particular

[falcolombardi]

i'm kinda surprised by how high you are on draymond. noticed you had him on your all-playoff first team too (so far). perhaps i'm underrating him

if anythingh i think i am lower on him than many here who are much higher on his offense/passing than me

but he gets a ton of credit as the leader of warriors great defense and my playoffs best players list is weighted towards players who played more series (hence why i put draymond over jokic although jokic was better in their series)

in general im very high on draymond, i think he might be my DPOY (reg ssn + playoffs). just didnt think he's been *that*impressive in the postseason. might be crazy but i think horford might even have a case over him, i felt dray underperformed versus memphis in particular

that is fair, and honestly reputation bias may be favoring draymond here as he is the "biggest name" defender left and his teammates dont have as much rep yet (looney, wiggins, porter, payton)

i was impressed in horford and had him in my 3rd team when i made the playoffs teams thread and honestly may still have underated him because he "should not" be that good at that age

[jalengreen]

great half from butler. max strus has been disastrous this series

really didnt age well

[Fadeaway_J]

It's crazy how much more well-rounded Tucker looks as an offensive player this season. I know Houston's style didn't exactly give him the opportunity to show a whole lot, but still.