Post#5933 » by The-Power » Mon May 30, 2022 8:03 am
On Butler's shot: To me, that looked like a very low chance to win the game. If we look at the math (estimates), I'm not sure how it's defensible in hindsight.
What odds do we give this shot of going in? 35% perhaps? The offensive rebounding percentage of this shot was incredibly low, certainly much lower than usual with only Oladipo and with incredible luck Lowry even in a position to grab it. Even if Butler had made it, the Celtics would have had 16 seconds to score any basket for the win. What are the odds of that, 40% or perhaps even a bit higher? If the Heat foul, the game is most likely going at least to overtime unless they had enough time for another decent shot themselves.
If Butler had attacked Horford, the chance to at least tie the game would have been considerably higher in my opinion and there still was a chance to even get an and-1 out of it (not the most likely scenario but still). Importantly, it would have increased chances for an offensive rebound as more players could have positioned themselves and it would have taken some time away from the Celtics to respond, creating a smaller margin for error on their last possession. But let's say you're not confident in your ability to win in a possible overtime and you don't want to go for the tie.
Still, a 3 closer to end of the shot clock – perhaps after your last time-out – was still a better scenario. Even if the look would have been worse, I think the Heat could still have created a ~30% look from behind the line. Difference is that you could have drawn it up in a way that allowed for a better chance at an offensive rebound, AND you would have left the Celtics with no or much more limited time on the clock to respond. That more than makes up for the cleaner look from Butler (which was not great either because he's not an elite shooter) even once we factor in the risk of a turnover.
What am I missing? Note that I realize that players aren't calculators and have to make split-second decisions. So I'm not saying Butler threw this game away even though I was somewhat perplexed by his shot selection and believe some criticism is warranted for that one. But looking back at the shot, I'm not sure how anyone can say that this was the best option for the Heat to win the game. I'm happy, however, to be proven wrong with some actual estimates about win probability under this scenario and the alternative ones the Heat could have opted for; I just don't see it myself.
