Retro POY '97-98 (Voting Complete)

[An Unbiased Fan]

1) MJ - MVP, Finals MVP. It was close, but MJ led his team to a Finals win over Malone's Jazz(who had HCA).

2) Malone - Great year. But got outplayed by MJ in the playoffs.

3) Shaq - Monster numbers, and would be close to #1 if he had been healthy. Edges out GP because LA destroyed Seattle in the PS.

4) Payton - Solid year. All-NBA/All-D 1st. Good PS, but Shaq's was better.

5) Robinson - Great comeback year. Edges out TD who was still in apprentice mode.

[TMACFORMVP]

I think Duncan really took reigns of the team by the second half of the season:

Code: Select all

Robinson: (25 GAMES): 18.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.7 APG on .476 / .716 from the line
Duncan (34 GAMES): 25.2 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 3.0 APG on .540 / .738 from the line

In those nine games Robinson missed, Duncan and the Spurs went 6-3. It kind of depends on what you value more, Duncan was more effective post all-star break, while Robinson was the more prolific player in the first half of the season (23/11).

In the playoffs, Robinson also had six games in which he shot under 45% from the floor (that stretch coming in 6 of the last 7 games), while Duncan had only two. Regardless of those advanced metrics, the bottom line was Duncan was more consistent in the playoffs, and the considerably more efficient player. But to be fair, in the other aspects of the game, Robinson had a clear edge (rebounding and passing etc).

I'm still back and forth on this one, but I'm sort of leaning Duncan at this point.

1. Michael Jordan
2. Karl Malone
3. Shaquille O'neal
4. Gary Payton
5. Tim Duncan

Also flip flopping between Payton and Shaq too.

[Baller 24]

Exactly, I was too lazy to pull up the statistics, but Duncan was dominate for a longer period of time throughout the season compared to Robinson, he stepped it up significantly throughout the last two and a half months during the season.

[ElGee]

My 1998 POY Ballot:

1. Michael Jordan
2. Karl Malone
3. Shaquille O'Neal
4. Gary Payton
5. David Robinson

Most of my thoughts are explained in the thread. The question was where to slot in Shaq because of his 22 missed games. I'm trying to be fairly consistent about missed games and using it as a penalty, as long as the time missed isn't too great, and that's what I did here with Shaq.

Robinson gets the nod over Duncan. I think it's apparent that Duncan emerged as the No. 1 scoring option for the Spurs as the season wound down. There is a youtube highlight of his playoff debut where he scores 28 in the second half (Kevin Harlan goes nuts). But Robinson was still their best player -- ahead in defense, rebounding, passing (and from what I can tell/remember commanding double teams) and the offense is close to a wash when the entire season is considered.

[Silver Bullet]

Exactly, I was too lazy to pull up the statistics, but Duncan was dominate for a longer period of time throughout the season compared to Robinson, he stepped it up significantly throughout the last two and a half months during the season.

dude, hate to be the grammar police as it annoys me too - but it's dominant.

[lorak]

I think Duncan really took reigns of the team by the second half of the season:

Code: Select all

Robinson: (25 GAMES): 18.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.7 APG on .476 / .716 from the line
Duncan (34 GAMES): 25.2 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 3.0 APG on .540 / .738 from the line

So Robinson was better during first 48 games (so most of the season) of the regular season, was better in playoffs but some of you guys still would pick Duncan over Robinson? That's crazy.

I repeat:
In 1998 Robinson was significantly better defender than Duncan and also slightly better offensive player: better efficiency (.581 TS% to .577 TS%) with much better PER: 27.8 to 22.6! In playoffs Robinson’s efficiency drop offs but he still was overall better than Duncan (better PER, WS and WS/48with some amazing results like 6.0 BLK% and 21.2 TRB% to only Duncan’s 12.8 TRB%).

[Doctor MJ]

Exactly, I was too lazy to pull up the statistics, but Duncan was dominate for a longer period of time throughout the season compared to Robinson, he stepped it up significantly throughout the last two and a half months during the season.

dude, hate to be the grammar police as it annoys me too - but it's dominant.

Duncan was so good that the verb "to dominate" recognized its own superfluousness and erased itself from English dictionaries. "to duncan" was the preferred term up until the point Shaq started calling himself the "Most Duncanate Ever" which, I don't have to tell you, was quite confusing.

[mysticbb]

Vote:

1. Michael Jordan
2. Karl Malone
3. Shaquille O'Neal
4. Tim Duncan
5. David Robinson


Regarding Tim Duncan and David Robinson: There is a chapter in Dean Oliver's book about the correlation between individual numbers and team success. Players like Duncan, Nowitzki or Jordan had a way higher correlation than David Robinson for example. He concluded that Robinson didn't impact the game as much as others. His individual numbers exceeded the team numbers, because Robinson wasn't the guy who took the difficult shot in the end. Actually that was also my personal impression.

[lorak]

From the 1998 thread, something that caught my eye about TS%:

In 1998 Robinson was significantly better defender than Duncan and also slightly better offensive player: better efficiency (.581 TS% to .577 TS%) with much better PER: 27.8 to 22.6!

My general impression throughout this project is people are a little too reliant at looking on TS% as some measurement of offensive efficiency/production in a vacuum, when context is quite important regarding efficiency. TS% is a good number to reference, but in a situation like this, it's important to note that 22 ppg on .585 TS% isn't necessarily better than a teammate who produces 22 ppg on .575% TS.

That may sound counterintuitive, but when one player (our less efficient shooter) dictates significantly more defensive attention and the other is the beneficiary with open shots, it will happen. And that doesn't mean the more efficient shooter was better on offense.

The thing is in 1998 Robinson was the one who dictates more defensive attention. He was clearly Spurs number one option on offense (and MUCH BETTER ON DEFENSE) - similar FGA to Duncan’s with much more FTA, what’s not surprising, because Duncan was a ROOKIE – something many people here seems not to remember... and that way some crazy things like 1998 Duncan over 1998 Robinson happens.

BTW, I checked Duncan’s numbers in 9 games when Robinson was out – his efficiency was lower. On the other hand in 1998 Robinson’s efficiency in games with Duncan was the same as before injury in 1996. So the point is: Robinson helped Duncan, but Duncan didn’t help Robinson.

[Silver Bullet]

Exactly, I was too lazy to pull up the statistics, but Duncan was dominate for a longer period of time throughout the season compared to Robinson, he stepped it up significantly throughout the last two and a half months during the season.

dude, hate to be the grammar police as it annoys me too - but it's dominant.

Duncan was so good that the verb "to dominate" recognized its own superfluousness and erased itself from English dictionaries. "to duncan" was the preferred term up until the point Shaq started calling himself the "Most Duncanate Ever" which, I don't have to tell you, was quite confusing.

Dr. MJ - you're too smart for me dude, the joke flew over my head and I have no idea if you're agreeing with me or disagreeing.

[Baller 24]

lol whoops, it was an accident, I don't always double-check what I write.

[Silver Bullet]

My vote:
1. Karl Malone
2. Micheal Jordan
3. Shaq
4. David Robinson
5. Gary Payton

[Baller 24]

Just curious, Pippen only played in 44 games, what's the justification for him over someone like say Gary Payton?

[semi-sentient]

[Sedale Threatt]

There is a chapter in Dean Oliver's book about the correlation between individual numbers and team success. Players like Duncan, Nowitzki or Jordan had a way higher correlation than David Robinson for example. He concluded that Robinson didn't impact the game as much as others. His individual numbers exceeded the team numbers, because Robinson wasn't the guy who took the difficult shot in the end. Actually that was also my personal impression.

This is an interesting concept that I'd like to hear more about.

It's always seemed sort of counter intuitive to me that great numbers wouldn't automatically translate into impact -- Chamberlain, for example. I know bastillon has used that argument against 70s Kareem as well.

With my thoughts being, these guys were leading the league in seven or eight different categories; how does that NOT make an impact? Doesn't it make more sense that the supporting cast is the deficiency, rather than the main player putting up great numbers?

But even so, Robinson illustrates this paradox well. I've softened a bit with him lately, but even so there was something lacking with him, some missing ingredient that hampered his career just as much as the fact he was usually going to battle with guys like Willie Anderson and Vinny Del Negro.

I've stuck up for LeBron for years, but I'm starting to wonder if he fits into the same category.

[drza]

From reading this thread, the only really surprising thing to me is how much love the Glove is getting. I remember thinking he was really good at the time, but nowhere near the best and when I look back at that season I don't see anything that changes that impression. The biggest pro-Payton argument I've seen here is that he kept the Sonics over 60 wins after Kemp left, but it seems like folks are completely ignoring that Vin Baker was on that team. I know that eventually he became an alcoholic and his game disappeared, but at the time he was right there with Payton leading the Sonics. He was 2nd team All NBA, IIRC, and his stats were right there with Payton as well. And if the Sonics' record isn't attributed purely to Payton, I don't see how the rest of his case gets him into the top-5.

1. Jordan
2. Malone (this bugs me, as I really don't think he was quite as good as the next two players on my list. But I can't argue with his production and results that year, at least not with the tools I have available. This is still the spot I'd be most likely to change, though, before the final tally is counted).
3. Shaq
4. Robinson
5. Duncan

[Optimism Prime]

My vote:
1. Karl Malone
2. David Robinson - for the life of me, I can't figure out all the Tim Duncan love here. It was clearly D-Rob's team and he was clearly the better player at this stage. I don't get it.
3. Micheal Jordan
4. Shaq - best player in the league at this point, IMO. Missed wayy too many games
5. Gary Payton

Can you explain Jordan at 3?

[Sedale Threatt]

I didn't see that. All I can say is, wow.

[Baller 24]

I saw it coming, I'm sure there will be many more as the years progress.

[Sedale Threatt]

I think Duncan really took reigns of the team by the second half of the season:

Code: Select all

Robinson: (25 GAMES): 18.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.7 APG on .476 / .716 from the line
Duncan (34 GAMES): 25.2 PPG, 12.4 RPG, 3.0 APG on .540 / .738 from the line

.

Good effort pulling this up. This pretty much jibes with how I remember that season playing out, with Duncan gradually asserting himself until he was the go-to guy over the latter portion of the season.

I don't understand these statements about Robinson being the No. 1 option on offense, or the Spurs running through him. That simply wasn't the case. Maybe early on, as Tim got his feet wet. But as the season wore on he was pretty clearly the preferred option.