Retro POY '80-81 (Voting Complete)

[ElGee]

The arguments for Bird are resonating with me. Had planned to vote Moses #1, not really not sure.

I don't get Moses below Julius though. I'm a big Dr. J fan, and he certainly had a more well rounded game than Moses in general, but Erving just isn't nearly as dominant of a player at his stage in his career.

It's a baffling year. Bird looks like the best player in the playoffs. He's certainly got the best skill set, Malone the worst of the four, which clouds things even further (because that's never been a determining factor for how well they played in a given year).

What I'm trying to figure out is how different Bird was from the regular season, keeping in mind that he's in his second year and had presumably learned a lot about the league since December of 1979. Statistically, he takes more shots, scores more, with better efficiency, rebounds more, plays more minutes and basically just does about everything better in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs than he did in the regulars season.

For the crowd who values playoffs immensely, it seems to definitely be enough for a first place. I'm trying to balance that with his regular season. Further complicating the matter is that it's a really weak year, and the top 4 all have blemishes, to a degree.

I really liked the blurbs TrueLAFan posted, but they only add to the confusion.

[TMACFORMVP]

1. Bird
2. Malone
3. Erving
4. Kareem
5. Gervin

[ElGee]

My 1981 POY Ballot:

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Larry Bird
3. Moses Malone
4. Julius Erving
5. Marques Johnson

It's been fun going over this year in a lot of detail thanks to a nice combination of personal circumstance and the new schedule (watching NBA games from 1981 on the iPhone gets quite a reaction from the person next to you).

Two things have made this really tricky:

(1) all the players at the top are fairly similar, at least from 30 years in the future.
(2) "Stars" were different than they would be even just a few years later

There are fewer players breaking down defenses with one on one plays, drawing extensive double-teams (Kareem might be the exception). Offenses were more balanced and primary scorers shot the ball less. I started the thread with a post about Bird's scoring declining. But nearly everyone's scoring declined. No one was shooting the ball 22 times a game in 1981.

That helps out Moses and a less-offensively inclined Bird here. Although, frankly, I feel as though I've overrated Moses in previous years. I like him as No. 1 in 1982. But if I could go back and change my 1983 vote, I would. I don't think the playoffs were enough to move Moses over Bird in 83 given my past votes and I fell victim to the team narrative.

In 81, Kareem was a better player than Moses. Perhaps if Malone were more of a defensive presence it would be another story. I think Bird clearly passes Erving in the playoffs. Larry and Moses are close, but I'll give the edge to Bird for the following reasons: by the Spring of 1981, he was probably the most well-rounded player on earth, could go 1 on 1 or come off screens and score, could rebound like Moses, drain key outside shots when no one else on this list could and his passing was good for ~2 extra layups a game (which, in theory, is a +2 ORtg boost right there).

Which leaves Kareem and Bird for the top spot. In my distant estimation, the gap was too large in the regular season to overcome for Bird. Larry's TS% in the regular season is below league average. If he rebounded and played defense all season that might be enough to offset that, but ultimately I don't think that's what happened.

Kareem's rebounding is still below average, but he at least showed in the playoffs he could still rebound at an elite level, against Moses no less. However, LA did go 28-17 without Magic, posted a respectable 3.3 SRS (given my assessment of the rest of that roster) and finished 6th in DRtg. I don't blame Kareem for the chemistry problems on that team (at least not this year) and I think those played a role in the Lakers being in the Finals and the mini-series upset in Round 1.

Marques Johnson was an easy No. 5 for reasons already mentioned in thread. Hopefully all of the 70s seasons aren't this nebulous.

[TrueLAfan]

I'm curious as to what Moses did or didn't do to be ranked outside of the top two, at the very least.

Well, I think the Handbook material says it well. Moses's strengths were clear and obvious. But so were his weaknesses, He was a mediocre defender and poor passer. He (mysteriously) had soft hands for rebounds, and hands of stone receiving passes. The Rockets were a streaky team in 1981, and they went on a streak in the playoffs. But, to be honest, Robert Reid upped his game more than Moses in the first three rounds of the playoffs. And the Rockets just caught the Lakers when they were discombobulated. It doesn't invalidate the Houston run, or Moses' play in general, and I recognize and admire what Moses did and could do...but I thought Kareem had the better season (I'll give up the offensive boards and trips to the line for the shooting, passing and D) and also thought Cap played well against Moses in the playoffs. As a matter of fact, a big change (better coach) or a small one (last play...get the ball to Kareem) could/should have sent the Lakers on in the playoffs. Even though that didn't happen, I personally don't see that Moses did enough in that series or the subsequent playoff series to put him over Kareem, My .02 on that.

[lorak]

Bird's Game 7 was an all-timer. Dude had 4 steals and 3 blocks (Kalb says 5 but good luck finding 5 -- score-keeping errors were rife in those days). Speaking of errors, he was most certainly NOT 9-12 in the final game, but 8-16.
.

Official stats from that series says: G7 – Bird 8/17 FG, 5 stl and 2 blk.

Here are all Bird’s and Erving’s stats from that series (and from 1980):





1. Bird
2. Dr J
3. Marques (forgotten player, but at this time he was as good as Erving)
4. Moses
5. KAJ

[Doctor MJ]

My vote, and wow was this tough. I'll try to add more later.

1. Kareem
2. Moses
3. Bird
4. Erving
5. Marques

Briefly, my thinking:

What does it mean to be upset in a 3 game series where all the games are close? Not that much. Particularly when dealing with an opponent known to be a bad match up, who clearly is on a hot streak that takes them to the finals, and when your team is right in the middle of a rotation transition. To act like this is some damning defeat when Boston went down 3-1 in a series this year just isn't reasonable. One of the great trade-offs in sports: More games means less luck. Less games means more excitement. As someone with an analytical bent, I'm glad we have all 7 game series now. In the end, I can't lift Moses ahead of Kareem based on something that close, and Kareem was good enough in the year leading the Lakers sans-Magic after leading them to a decisive title that at least for this moment, he's my guy this year.

Bird? So tough. In the end, I just can't get passed the fact that at this stage in his career, he's a not very efficient, non-volume scorer, without much ability to get to the line. He had a good playoff run, but even there, he had some major help. His great performance over Philly makes me comfortable putting him above Erving, but it's not enough to put him ahead of the two big men.

[Doctor MJ]

Last call.

[Doctor MJ]

'80-81 Results

Code: Select all

Player               1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th Pts   POY Shares
1. Larry Bird         11   4   3   0   0 153   0.850
2. Moses Malone        1   7   7   3   0 103   0.572
3. Julius Erving       2   4   5   7   0  94   0.522
   Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 4   3   2   7   2  94   0.522
5. Marques Johnson     0   0   1   0   9  14   0.078
6. George Gervin       0   0   0   1   6   9   0.050
7. Cedric Maxwell      0   0   0   0   1   1   0.006


[Dr Positivity]

Bird is .4 from Duncan in the battle for probable 6th place. I think Bird will just sneak past. Kareem and Erving are the obvious top 2 in '80, after that Bird and Gervin split the 3rd place MVP vote with Gervin having the epic stats but Bird winning 61 with the Celtics (compared to 29 the year before) to Gervin winning 41 with the Spurs. I think with the exception of you-know-who's vote, Bird's winning will get the vote over Gervin's stats

[Gongxi]

Aww, I feel bad I wasn't able to come back to this one. I ended up with the order I first posted, though.

[Doctor MJ]

Bird is .4 from Duncan in the battle for probable 6th place. I think Bird will just sneak past. Kareem and Erving are the obvious top 2 in '80, after that Bird and Gervin split the 3rd place MVP vote with Gervin having the epic stats but Bird winning 61 with the Celtics (compared to 29 the year before) to Gervin winning 41 with the Spurs. I think with the exception of you-know-who's vote, Bird's winning will get the vote over Gervin's stats

Will be interesting to see what happens. By my count, if he can get the equivalent half 3rd and half 4th votes that will do it. Seems like a distinct possiblity, but no given.

[shawngoat23]

Bird is .4 from Duncan in the battle for probable 6th place. I think Bird will just sneak past. Kareem and Erving are the obvious top 2 in '80, after that Bird and Gervin split the 3rd place MVP vote with Gervin having the epic stats but Bird winning 61 with the Celtics (compared to 29 the year before) to Gervin winning 41 with the Spurs. I think with the exception of you-know-who's vote, Bird's winning will get the vote over Gervin's stats

Pretty surprising that he's still fighting for 6th place (after Kareem, Wilt, and Russell are accounted for) when he's a strong #3 in career MVP share.

[Doctor MJ]

Pretty surprising that he's still fighting for 6th place (after Kareem, Wilt, and Russell are accounted for) when he's a strong #3 in career MVP share.

It's about what I expected.

First off, early MVP awards were voted without 2nd/3rd/4th/5th place points. Wilt & Russell almost certainly easily surpass Bird if modern methods were used back then. So you have to expect Bird to finish no higher than 5th.

Second, MVP is based on the regular season, and we're working all season here. Bird's Celtics had the best record in the league 6 times, but won only 3 titles and made only 5 finals. I'd expected he'd take a bit of a hit.

By contrast:

-Magic's Lakers had the best record 3 times, but won 5 titles and made 9 finals.

-Shaq legendarily won only 1 MVP despite being considered the best player for much longer than that.

-Duncan won only 2 MVPs, but has 4 rings.

Superficially at least, it just makes sense that they'd do better in the RPOY than in the MVP.

[semi-sentient]

Site updated: www.dolem.com/poy

No real changes, but Bird is moves closer to Shaq and Duncan. It'll be interesting to see if he gets enough votes to pass both (or either) guys up in the next round of voting.

Code: Select all

1.  Michael Jordan    9.578
2.  Magic Johnson     6.978
3.  Tim Duncan        6.153
4.  Shaquille O'Neal  5.910
5.  Larry Bird        5.738
6.  Karl Malone       4.649
7.  Hakeem Olajuwon   4.380
8.  Kobe Bryant       4.326
9.  Kevin Garnett     3.388
10. LeBron James      3.083

[Sedale Threatt]

I'm curious as to what Moses did or didn't do to be ranked outside of the top two, at the very least.

Well, I think the Handbook material says it well. Moses's strengths were clear and obvious. But so were his weaknesses, He was a mediocre defender and poor passer. He (mysteriously) had soft hands for rebounds, and hands of stone receiving passes. The Rockets were a streaky team in 1981, and they went on a streak in the playoffs. But, to be honest, Robert Reid upped his game more than Moses in the first three rounds of the playoffs. And the Rockets just caught the Lakers when they were discombobulated. It doesn't invalidate the Houston run, or Moses' play in general, and I recognize and admire what Moses did and could do...but I thought Kareem had the better season (I'll give up the offensive boards and trips to the line for the shooting, passing and D) and also thought Cap played well against Moses in the playoffs. As a matter of fact, a big change (better coach) or a small one (last play...get the ball to Kareem) could/should have sent the Lakers on in the playoffs. Even though that didn't happen, I personally don't see that Moses did enough in that series or the subsequent playoff series to put him over Kareem, My .02 on that.

So maybe it's more a matter of what the other guys did, rather than what he didn't do. That happens. But those weaknesses seem to have existed on some level in the following two seasons, and he still managed to crush the voting. So I guess I'm still a little curious how somebody could go from 21 and 16 first-place votes to one. I'm not complaining, by any means. Bird was a very deserving winner. And Malone still finished second. Again, more curious about the distribution of votes than the actual outcome.

[ElGee]

^^^I'm with you Sedale. As I said, i think I overrated Moses in 82-83. In 82, Bird took a decent step back for me and Kareem isn't really in the picture. That left Moses and Erving, and I suppose in re-evaluating that it could go either way. But Moses was a beast in 1982 -- it was perhaps his best season.

Otherwise, yeah, if you really like Moses in 83 and 82 then I suppose he'd have to be in your top 2 in 81 as well.

[Dr Positivity]

Yeah for me Kareem and Bird definitely stepped up in 81 and Moses stepped a little down which was enough. Moses still had a #1 worthy season, it's just 3 other guys did too

[eminence]

A bit tougher than the first season I did ('80), have a real set of contenders for the top spot and it feels like the 2nd tier is a bit deeper as well.

1. KAJ- Think he was the best player again through the regular season, lost in a 3 game series. Feels kinda fluky and he played well.
2. Bird- Outplayed DrJ in the ECF and brought his team out of a brutal Eastern Conference.
3. Moses- Played Kareem to a draw at least in the playoffs and got the win, then took advantage of a weak Western Conference to make a finals run.
4. DrJ- Seems to have worn down as the playoffs went on, probably due to drawing the toughest route (going 7 vs the Bucks then Celtics). My #2 through the regular season.
5. Marques Johnson- The last of the Eastern powers leaders. Went 7 vs the 76ers and played great. Deceptively close to being a champion for going out in the second round. Still a clear tier down from 1-4.

HM:
Gervin- Another great scoring season, and his team found some solid success. Also bounced by the Rockets in less of a fluke series than Kareem (it went 7 games). Only one of the HM's who was really close to getting on the list.
Gilmore- A player I was surprised not to see listed more in this thread. Led the Bulls to a pretty solid season in a very tough Eastern Conference.
Dantley- Tough to judge, ridiculous scoring, team was terrible, and later results seem to indicate that he just wasn't that high impact of a player.