RealGM Top 100 List #10

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#61 » by An Unbiased Fan » Sun Jul 17, 2011 6:44 pm

DavidStern wrote:Fine, so lets compare 13 best playoffs seasons (yeah, 13, that's how long Malone was so good)

Malone 1988-2000
22.8 PER, 0.161 WS/48

Kobe 1998-2011
22.4 PER, 0.160 WS/48


But you still may say Kobe was too young, so lets compare only 10 seasons (but that's not fair, beacuse one of Malone's advantages above Bryant is longevity on very high level):

KB 2001-2011
23.3 PER, 0.174 WS/48

KM
1991-2000
23.4 PER, 0.169 WS/48

So no matter how we look at that their box score production in playoffs is similar. But Malone also had advantage on defensive end AND longevity.

In Kobe's prime years, he has a 23.3 PER, 0.174 WS/48. Based on the numbers you posted.

Comparitevly, Malone was 23(about the same age as Bryant in 86'). So yes, he has more longevity because Kobe is still only 32. But from 23 & on....

KB 2001-2011
23.3 PER, 0.174 WS/48

KM 1986-2000
22.4 PER, 0.155 WS/48
^
see how easy it is to play with stats by narrowing to certain spans of years?

Even if you count from 1988-2000, Kobe still wins out.

KM 1988-2000
22.8 PER, 0.161 WS/48


But again, boxscore sats, especially across eras, isn't the ebst way to compare players. Just look at Bird vs Dirk in "advanced stats"....

I can't believe you're seriously arguing that Malone was an equal playoff performer to Bryant. I'm also interested in hearing how Malone was a better playoff defender.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#62 » by lorak » Sun Jul 17, 2011 6:58 pm

An Unbiased Fan wrote:
DavidStern wrote:Fine, so lets compare 13 best playoffs seasons (yeah, 13, that's how long Malone was so good)

Malone 1988-2000
22.8 PER, 0.161 WS/48

Kobe 1998-2011
22.4 PER, 0.160 WS/48


But you still may say Kobe was too young, so lets compare only 10 seasons (but that's not fair, beacuse one of Malone's advantages above Bryant is longevity on very high level):

KB 2001-2011
23.3 PER, 0.174 WS/48

KM
1991-2000
23.4 PER, 0.169 WS/48

So no matter how we look at that their box score production in playoffs is similar. But Malone also had advantage on defensive end AND longevity.

In Kobe's prime years, he has a 23.3 PER, 0.174 WS/48. Based on the numbers you posted.

Comparitevly, Malone was 23(about the same age as Bryant in 86'). So yes, he has more longevity because Kobe is still only 32. But from 23 & on....

KB 2001-2011
23.3 PER, 0.174 WS/48

KM 1986-2000
22.4 PER, 0.155 WS/48
^
see how easy it is to play with stats by narrowing to certain spans of years?


Don't be hypocrite - you don't want Kobe's first years, because he was too young, but you want to include Malone's first years, when he was clearly before his prime.

His prime started in 1988 and that's why I choose that year as first. The same with Kobe (didn't include his first seasons) and no matter if we compare 13 or 10 prime seasons their box score production in playoffs is very similar.
Sure, box score don't tell whole story, but what makes you think that Kobe was better player in the playoffs? He wasn't better defender, wasn't better in elimination games, didn't produced more according to box score... so what's left? Silly argument like "5 to 0"?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#63 » by NO-KG-AI » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:01 pm

Just hurry and vote Kobe in so reasonable discussion can resume, and the amount of voters can be cut down to the people that care about this project as a whole.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#64 » by Laimbeer » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:17 pm

Pretty much Kobe, because I voted for him at nine, and I'm as big a title slappy as there is around here. I respect the abilities of the guys nominated, but Kobe is the only one who really translated his talent into titles. None of these guys has enough of a stat or impact advantage to offset that.

For the same reason, it's time to start talking about Zeke. I'd be tempted to rate him above some of the guys nominated, either in GOAT or start-a-franchise debates.

There are very few guys that stepped into losing situations and made a team a multiple title winner. Part of greatness is having a huge impact on a franchise, and I'd argue Isiah's impact on the Pistons was greater than the impact any of these guys had on any team they played for.

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#65 » by Dr Positivity » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:29 pm

Pistol Pete Vescey wrote:V: Kobe
N: D-Rob


andrewww wrote:vote: kobe
nomination: elgin baylor


dan_atko97 wrote:vote; kobe
nominate; wade

wade has one 1 championship on his own, consitently a top 3 player in the league leading his team of scrubs to the playoffs, his all around stats also speak for themselves.


To make it easier on Penbeast, these voters are not on the list
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#66 » by Gongxi » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:32 pm

Again, I think Isiah got enough mention with just that post to last this particular thread. We still have DRob, WADE, Pettit, Baylor, etc to get past. Not Isiah's time, yet.

I'm still interested in hearing more KG/Kobe/Karl/Dr. J arguments before I vote. So far it's been mostly Kobe (which is to be expected) vs. Karl, but the other two have compelling cases to me, too. On the other hand, KG was discussed pretty deeply in a previous thread, and there's a whole thread devoted to Dr. J vs. Kobe, but what about KG v Karl v Dr. J?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#67 » by Laimbeer » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:39 pm

Gongxi wrote:Again, I think Isiah got enough mention with just that post to last this particular thread. We still have DRob, WADE, Pettit, Baylor, etc to get past. Not Isiah's time, yet.


All those guys you mention are great talents, but how do you judge greatness? Transforming a franchise is pretty special, and I don't think any of them did that.

Isiah took a losing franchise and led it's climb to multiple titles.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#68 » by Gongxi » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:42 pm

:lol:
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#69 » by Dr Positivity » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:42 pm

I want to hear some KG vs Karl arguments too. Most likely it will come next thread. Battle for the 2nd best PF of all time.

If you ask me, I can't really make the edge definitive other than asking who would I rather have, and that's Garnett
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#70 » by shawngoat23 » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:48 pm

I can't see voting Karl Malone or Kevin Garnett over Kobe.

Even if you argue that they were slightly superior as players (an argument which can be made, but is certainly debatable), Kobe's overall resume is much stronger. I believe most posters do evaluate players based on resume as well as ability (with the noticeable exception of Gongxi, most of whose posts are rants about the topic :D ), and it would be inconsistent to drop Kobe below those two in that case. Unless you believe they were leaps and bounds better as players.

Personally, I have Erving at this spot, and Kobe would go next. Or possibly West, but not Malone or Garnett. It's not just "5 rings", but it's also memorable performances on the big stage, where Erving, West, and Kobe have those guys trumped.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#71 » by ElGee » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:49 pm

Karl Malone's Great Games

I think the focusing on all the negatives, with all players, does a great disservice to their positives. As I've said, it's better to have a guy with 10 amazing seasons and 5 horrible ones than a guy with 5 amazing seasons and 0 horrible ones.

People really need to consider how much this Losing Bias plays tricks on their brains. The lasting memory of Malone being stripped, or missing 2 FT's in the opening Finals game (on the heels of one or two questionable outs in the past) smacks of availibility heuristic (error). The brain will over-emphasize that easily accessible information in analysis. It happens to all players who lose, and the opposite happens to players who win.

I find it ironic that so many people who like to look at team roster don't consider just how much Malone did for the Jazz. He's quite similar to Dirk Nowitzki and this year's Dallas team ITO structure. Stockton by the late 90s has a reduced role of efficiency, and not much more (like Kidd). The team has a few shooters, a smart coach, a decent bench (Utah never had a Tyson Chandler) and it all revolves around Malone.

Anyway, in focusing on the positive and what people may have forgotten (or never known), here are Malone's greatest games from his prime:

1988
G2 LA – Malone scores 18 of his 29 in second half to “stun” LA at the Forum.
G6 LA – He predicts a G7 and delivers with 27-11 (58.5% TS)
G7 LA – In defeat again back-to-back champs, 31 points 15 rebounds (62.1% TS)

1989
G2 GSW – Malone, scoreless in the 1st of G1 (16 in 2nd half) came out blazing, with 14 in first and 24 at half. He finished with 37 points (13-25, 11-14) and 22 rebounds, but the rest of the jazz were 18-54 (33%). I just don't see the evidence his team was very good in these years (Malone had 33-14 in G3).

1990
G4 Pho After going just 23-62 in the first 3 games, Malone helps force game 5 with 33 points (13-24, 7-9) and 11 rebounds. (Note, in Game 5, Malone tied the score with a 20-footer in the final seconds of the game, but KJ hit a buzzer beater to win. Malone 26-9 (10-19, 6-12) in that game, Stockton just 3-11)

1991
G5 Pho – Malone scores 11 of his 38 points in the 4th quarter to close out the Suns.
G2 Por – After a subpar G1, Malone goes for 40 in G2 defeat. He sparks a 23-point deficit, 45-point fourth quarter with 20 4th-quarter points of his own (31 in 2nd half). They lose on a Terry Porter buzzer beater. Malone made 2 Fts with 41 seconds left ot cut it 116-112, then forced a jump on Ainge on inbounds. Utah won it, Jeff Malone hit to make it 116-114, then Karl tied it with FT's at 116-116.

1992
G4 v LAC Malone with 44 and 11 but rest of Jazz combine for 23-55 (41.8%) and Clips shoot 50% to win.
G5 v Sea – To closeout Sonics, Malone scores 15 of his 37 in 4th, erasing an 8 point hole.
G3 v Por – Down 2-0 and back home, Malone goes for an absolute gem: 39-7-7 (68% TS)
G5 v Por – In the pivotal game of the series, with Stockton injured and out most of game, Malone carries the Jazz into OT with 38 points. This game was on classic recently and I've referenced, but it's a hugely steady diet of Karl on offense for Utah. Malone had 28 of 38 in 2nd half. He had 14 rebounds.

1994
G4 v Spurs – He closes out San Antonio with 34 and 12 (60% TS) and the key 20-footer with 42 seconds left to put Utah up 91-88.
G7 v Den – Malone with 31 and 14 on 12-23. “Karl took over” Hornacek said afterwards.

1995
G3 Hou – After Houston evened the series, Malone dropped 32-19-5 in Hou, with 21 in the second half. Malone had 11 in the third to spark the game's key run, according to AP report.

1996
G5 Por – Utah just destroyed Portland, and Malone had 21-10 in only 31 minutes. His counterparts, Buck Williams and Harvey Grant, shot a combined 3-14 for Portland.
G5+6 Sea Facing elimination, Malone with two huge games (30.5 ppg 12.5 rap 4.5 apg)

1997
G4 LAL – Ahead 2-1, Malone just crushes lakers as he rebounds from a 2-20 game: 42 points, 9 rebounds.
G5 LAL – He finishes LA with a 32 point 20 rebound performance in G5 at home. Btw, you barely notice Shaquille O'Neal is playing for the Lakers when you watch the 4th Q and OT of that game, until a dunk at ~3 min. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_4i2ZZsUbk&NR=1) Malone with a jumper at 3:20 of OT after 2 FT's, then a fade with 90 seconds left over Campbell to make it 96-93, the final FG.
G3 Chi – Down 2-0, Malone responds with 37 poits an 10 boards (55% TS) back in Utah.

1998
G5 Hou – This time – perhaps because Hakeem is older? – Malone bests Houston with 31-15-5 virtuoso game.
G4 SAS – Again, up 2-1 Malone goes for 34-12-4 (17-28) in a game 4 after a bad G3 (6-21 shooting), this against the Spurs twin towers and top-rated defense. Avery Johnson described the game afterwards simply as, “Karl Malone.” Robinson said “Malone was as good as he could be shooting the ball.”
G5 Chi – Basically single-handedly carries Utah back home with 17-27 39-9-5 game, and was easily the best player on court that day. He hit the dagger shot in the final minute to secure an 80-76 lead. Jordan misses at buzzer. (Final 6 here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u-E9rmJPh5U&NR=1

In the Final 6 minutes: Malone is doubled which leads to a breakdown, and ultimately a Carr layup. On the next trip he is doubled and hits Carr for open J. Then Malone with a scoop over Rodman. At 2:00 left, another double leads to a hockey assist on another Carr J. Then the dagger over Rodman, and Costas says “Malone is personally pushing the series back to Utah.”

G6 v Chi – Has 31-11-7 and does seemingly everything, except infamously hold on to the ball on his final touch.

(Interesting note about the last 2 games– Malone with 70 of Utah's 149 points in final 2 games (47%!) on 65.4% TS 28-46, 14-17. Jordan with 73 of Chicago's 148 points (49%) on 24-61, 22-26 on 50.4% TS)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#72 » by An Unbiased Fan » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:50 pm

Dr Mufasa wrote:I want to hear some KG vs Karl arguments too. Most likely it will come next thread. Battle for the 2nd best PF of all time.

If you ask me, I can't really make the edge definitive other than asking who would I rather have, and that's Garnett

That's a very interesting debate indeed, and I'm not quite sure where I fall between those two. I think the 11-20 threads will be an interesting collection of bigmen, with KG, Malone, Barkley, Moses, Dirk, DRob, Ewing, Petit.

Just imagine if Mikan was still in it. :P
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#73 » by ElGee » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:51 pm

shawngoat23 wrote:I can't see voting Karl Malone or Kevin Garnett over Kobe.

Even if you argue that they were slightly superior as players (an argument which can be made, but is certainly debatable), Kobe's overall resume is much stronger. I believe most posters do evaluate players based on resume as well as ability (with the noticeable exception of Gongxi, most of whose posts are rants about the topic :D ), and it would be inconsistent to drop Kobe below those two in that case. Unless you believe they were leaps and bounds better as players.

Personally, I have Erving at this spot, and Kobe would go next. Or possibly West, but not Malone or Garnett. It's not just "5 rings", but it's also memorable performances on the big stage, where Erving, West, and Kobe have those guys trumped.


The point of this project is to ignore thins like resume and focus on play. The "big stage" is a function of team, and I just listed a boatload of Malone's best performances over an 11-year period. See if you can trump that if that's going to be your criteria. (Why would that be your criteria again?)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#74 » by ElGee » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:53 pm

Dr Mufasa wrote:I want to hear some KG vs Karl arguments too. Most likely it will come next thread. Battle for the 2nd best PF of all time.

If you ask me, I can't really make the edge definitive other than asking who would I rather have, and that's Garnett


Ummm, I don't get it. At their peak, who would I rather have? KG. I'd also rather have Bill Walton, but he ain't going here. Kicks at the can are what this is all about, no? Malone's combined body of work crushes the other guys, that's why, even with KG having a better peak (and Dr. J), Malone is well ahead.

Or are you saying for career you think KG gives you a better chance to win titles?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#75 » by Gongxi » Sun Jul 17, 2011 7:58 pm

shawngoat23 wrote: I believe most posters do evaluate players based on resume as well as ability (with the noticeable exception of Gongxi, most of whose posts are rants about the topic :D ), and it would be inconsistent to drop Kobe below those two in that case. Unless you believe they were leaps and bounds better as players.


I seriously thought the point of this project was to ignore resumes (although, admittedly, I think we should ignore resumes altogether when rating...well, anything, but I guess we as a community are focused on basketball, right?). If I'm very vocal about it- and I try to be- it's because most people really can't back up why they revert to using resumes when they're questioned about it. They just 'do', mostly because everyone else just 'does'. And there's no reason for it.

Kobe has a legit argument against everyone at 10 as a basketball player anyway, there's no reason to cheapen the process by counting rings at this point.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#76 » by mysticbb » Sun Jul 17, 2011 8:06 pm

A comparison of the stats for the first 15 seasons of Bryant, Karl and Moses Malone, Garnett and Erving. The playoff minutes are weighted twice as much as the regular season minutes.

Code: Select all

Name            PER   WS/48   VOR
Karl Malone    23.9   0.198  1.80
Julius Erving  23.5   0.192  1.75
Kevin Garnett  23.4   0.185  1.71
Kobe Bryant    23.2   0.179  1.67
Moses Malone   22.5   0.181  1.66


Numbers are based upon this: http://bkref.com/tiny/n5f9U VOR is value over average replacement (simple (PER/15+WS48/0.099)/2). A higher value represents a higher boxscore metric here. As we can see Karl Malone takes that, then we get Erving, Garnett and Moses Malone as the last. Throughout 15 seasons we get the highest value for Karl Malone!
We know that Garnett had a higher impact on defense, which is not good represented in boxscore metrics. He still beats out Bryant in an offensive based metric, a metric which gives huge weight to shot creation, the biggest strength of Bryant. Overall we can easily add the bigger defensive impact for Garnett and to a smaller degree for Karl Malone here.

In the thread about Erving vs. Bryant I showed that the stats for Erving in the ABA are legit. Not counting those is making a mistake unless you didn't count Kareem Abdul-Jabbars stats during the ABA years either. Erving wasn't a defensive great, but he was also not a liability. In fact due to his higher defensive rebounding we can assume that he had at least average impact on defense. We know for Bryant that his defensive impact was never as big as his fans want to believe. Bryant might be one of the best 1on1 defender in the game on the SG position, but that doesn't make him per se a big contributer to a better team defense. Especially for his best statistical years on offense we saw him not improving the defense over an average replacement. Someone made the point that Moses Malone didn't have the impact his boxscore metrics suggest. No idea, but so far I had always the impression he pretty much had such an impact. Would be nice to learn more about it, but I don't consider Moses Malone right now for the #10.

Additional to all that we know that all of those players except of Kobe Bryant are giving me more than 15 seasons. Thus they all have a longevity edge over Bryant. Especially Karl and Moses Malone. Malone has the best numbers, and the playoff elimination games (see Elgee!) are showing that his shortcomings are overblown. Thus I will go with Karl Malone here.

Vote: Karl Malone

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#77 » by 34Dayz » Sun Jul 17, 2011 8:06 pm

I Know Kobe's gonna grab the 10 Spot but did he ever really have more of an impact on the hardwood then say Prime Garnett?

I don't like Judging players by Rings/Resume because that's a team accomplishment.

Lets say your starting out a team and you already have Paul Pierce and your next option is Kobe or KG which one do you pick?

Even if you have lets say a Hakeem or a Duncan, do you still pick Kobe over KG?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#78 » by Laimbeer » Sun Jul 17, 2011 8:07 pm

Gongxi wrote:
shawngoat23 wrote: I believe most posters do evaluate players based on resume as well as ability (with the noticeable exception of Gongxi, most of whose posts are rants about the topic :D ), and it would be inconsistent to drop Kobe below those two in that case. Unless you believe they were leaps and bounds better as players.


I seriously thought the point of this project was to ignore resumes (although, admittedly, I think we should ignore resumes altogether when rating...well, anything, but I guess we as a community are focused on basketball, right?). If I'm very vocal about it- and I try to be- it's because most people really can't back up why they revert to using resumes when they're questioned about it. They just 'do', mostly because everyone else just 'does'. And there's no reason for it.

Kobe has a legit argument against everyone at 10 as a basketball player anyway, there's no reason to cheapen the process by counting rings at this point.


Disagree, as guys get MVPs, all-stars, all-NBA for a reason. They aren't perfect but they're an indicator.

Titles are part of greatness as well. If Bill Russell had taken his talents to the Clippers in an alternate universe, he wouldn't have achieved the same greatness he did with with the Celtics.

What, should we just use advanced stats and an eyeball test?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#79 » by 34Dayz » Sun Jul 17, 2011 8:09 pm

Laimbeer, I think alot of those awards are a bit worthless as they aren't always accurately given out, for example a player might win MVP but still not be the best player in the league (01 for example)
or a player can be given All-NBA awards All-D awards when he doesn't deserve them (Kobe).

Not saying all awards given out are always that off base but many of them are.

You need to look at a players offensive impact + defensive impact + intangibles + consistency. that is the correct way you judge a player.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #10 

Post#80 » by Dr Positivity » Sun Jul 17, 2011 8:10 pm

I included longevity in that decision

The gap isn't huge. Both guys had two years before they make an All-NBA team, then Karl's 88 to 98 is 11 years. KG's 99 to 08 is 10 years. I think most of us care about the prime period here. But for the rest, the two years before that and two years after (10 and 11 for KG, not 09 and 10) are roughly similar. Karl's difference essentially comes down to 01-03, where I don't think he had the gas to made a title run anyways, and an extra prime season. So yes I'd rather have KG's entire body of work
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