RealGM Top 100 List #17

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#61 » by ElGee » Mon Aug 1, 2011 3:49 pm

mysticbb wrote:
ElGee wrote:@Mystic - I don't want you to be kicked out of the project, so for the love of god drop this weird vendetta against me you've conjured out of nowhere and get on with talking about basketball. It's really tiresome.


Tiresome is rather your ignorance regarding the points I made. You don't even have the manners to answer to a post I made after YOU asked a question, instead you are going on as if nothing happened. The same excuses overall.


What you call "excuses" is perspective I provide for every player. I've been vocal about players who lose because I believe it creates biases that radically adjusts this perspective. This is the second time you've call me ignorant -- in what way is that conducive to conversation? Do you think that if you call me "ignorant or stupid, or both" as you did in the post you are referring to that "I didn't have the manners to answer" that you will receive a response? Especially when I've already addressed the points, only you've just suddenly become so dogmatic they aren't good enough for you. (Or, frankly, you don't understand.)

And furthermore, you keep lumping crap into my mouth that isn't true. Such as...

James PLAYED WORSE LAST SEASON than in 2010 or 2009, EVERY single evidence we have says the same thing, but you are ignoring it or keep saying that everyone should just ignore the parts in which James didn't perform well.


Find where I said that. You keep making stuff up and constantly citing it to me even though I never said it or it wasn't even a part of the conversation. I cited JOHN HOLLINGER'S numbers after the season ended talking to someone else. You asked where I got them and I linked. You checked the numbers and he flipped them. Your version of that story paints me as someone radically clinging to numbers to "support a bias." What bias? The "I read an article at the end of the season bias in which someone made a sign error" bias? I'm not even sure you are aware of what you're alleging.

James' level of play during the playoffs dropped by a good margin. His usage went down, his efficiency went down, his impact numbers went down. And no, that is not just a a series here, we are talking about 23% of his time playing basketball last season. And that is not an outlier either. Except for one season, 2009, when James shows improved numbers in the playoffs, James always got worse. In average the performance level went down to 90% of his regular season level (using PER and WS/48 here and while looking at the level for each season, meaning 2006 rs compared with 2006 ps). Compare that to Nowitzki's 99%. That's why the differences in the playoffs are smaller than in the regular season. Should we just ignore that? Or is that maybe something we have in all years? Maybe James is beating up on bad teams too while not be as good against good teams? Well, that would be just common sense, but we can look that up.


What is the point of this rant? I've done extensive box score analysis on his playoff performance relative to regular season and his PS play against good/bad defenses. I don't see what "99% vs 90%" in 2 stats have to do as some important, new piece of evidence, particularly when you are comparing players to themselves.

Well, does that make sense to you? Or is that also just small sample size? Is it always small sample size when James doesn't look awesomely better than other players? Or is it quite possible that James indeed has a much bigger problem performing against better teams than Nowitzki?


Where do you get this? Look at LeBron's last 25 games against elite defenses. Or his performance in the last 3 years against elite defenses. (Wait, should I say "you've ignored it" and you are ignorant or you have a reading bias because it's already been posted and discussed?) I've already expressed my opinion on such matters, I don't really feel the need to restate it because you didn't read it or are simply ignoring it. I'm pretty sure I've never deviated from my interpretation of numbers and treatment of sample sizes. Either find where I did, or stop making up stuff.

So, ElGee, based on all those informations do you honestyl want James for 7 years rather Nowitzki for 11, because he beats up more on bad teams than Nowitzki is doing it?


No, that's not why I want James over Nowitzki. Do you seriously have no idea how I think about these two players? You seem to think Dirk has been the same player for 11 years...Have you been watching closely that whole time, or are you just using PM?

The great irony of this, of course, is that I've stated many times it doesn't much matter where LeBron goes because he's in the middle of his career. But you knew that already...
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#62 » by Sedale Threatt » Mon Aug 1, 2011 3:50 pm

Fencer reregistered wrote:There's a bit of a selection bias in that your worst playoff series is also likely to wind up having been your last one of the season, hence the most important, and also the most memorable.


It's a bit more than that, for me. It's the combination of the last two.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#63 » by An Unbiased Fan » Mon Aug 1, 2011 3:54 pm

34Dayz wrote:He makes a good point, people criticize Lebron for playing poorly in a Finals series and against better defenses when Kobe suffers from the exact same deficiency's if not worse ones.

I think Lebron and Kobe have much in common.

Wade in my opinion is the outlier, of the 3 he performs very well consistently in the Finals and against the best defenses.

Wade>Kobe/Lebron

Well no actually, Kobe did quite well against the best defensive team of the 00's(Spurs). It should also be noted that Kobe has had to face quite a list of top defensive opponents in the Finals from the 04' Piston, 08' Celtics, 09' Magic, and 10' Celtics. Even the 01' Sixers had the DPOY and quality wing defenders, and the 02' Nets were a top ranked defensive team too.

And by the logic being displayed right now...... Wade > MJ, because MJ's numbers in the FInals against a great defense(Sonics), declined bigtime. The problem with Lebron is that he has feasted on weak teams in the playoffs, and played mediocre against great ones. His record versus 50-win teams in the playoffs is 3-6, and his efficiency takes a nose dive. The same can't be said of Kobe, Wade, or MJ. When the pressure is on, Lebron tightens up, we have seen this happen multiple times now. Dirk's not perfect in this regard either though, and has had his equal share of epic fails in the post-season.

Honestly, I'm not sure mystic even brought up Bryant, it was just a weird addition to his post since he wasn't even in the discussion.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#64 » by Baller 24 » Mon Aug 1, 2011 4:01 pm

Vote: LeBron James

Nominate: Steve Nash
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#65 » by fatal9 » Mon Aug 1, 2011 4:03 pm

Vote: Barkley
Nominate: Nash

Re: Barkley...

Positives:

- Got the most first place voted in two of the toughest MVP years in the last 25 years ('90, '88 and '93 were the toughest ones IMO). The fact that he was in discussion for best player in the league with MJ, Magic and Hakeem in some of their peak seasons has to be respected. His peak/prime is really really impressive as far as the players go are going 11-20 are concerned.
- Almost unguardable if given enough time to post up, he would basically force you to foul him or get around you. Drew doubles like a dominant center, and he was one of the best passing forwards in history so it was very easy to build the offense around him. Led some great offensive teams over his career as a result (multiple times led top 3 offenses in the league with both the Sixers and Suns). Probably the best offensive player ever at his position.
- His best playoff run ('93) really impressed me. Despite the erratic shooting, he came up huge when his team needed it. Down 0-2 in the first round, he posted 29/12/5 in the final three wins. With the series tied 2-2 against the Spurs, and the Suns down in the fourth quarter of game 5, Barkley put together one of the most amazing fourth quarters I've ever seen in the playoffs (had 20 pts in it and a lot of offensive boards, completely took over the game). Then went out in game 6 and hit the series winning shot while posting 28/21/4/4. Suns were a couple of possessions from losing that series in 6 but Barkley put in some serious work to pull it out. Everyone knows what he did against Seattle in game 5 and game 7... 43/15/10 and 44/24 respectively in the two highest pressure games of the series. I thought he played really well defensively during the playoffs as well.
- Playoff stats of his extended prime years ('86-'95) were: 25.9 ppg, 13.6 rpg, 4.5 apg on 59 TS%, PER = 25.2 (over 82 total games). That's as good as you're gonna get from guys in this range.


Negatives:

- I agree with people saying that his stats do overstate his impact a bit (particularly his numbers from the 80s), but I wouldn't discount them totally either.
- Better have a shot blocking C to pair him up with if you want to have hopes of stopping players in the paint (same is true for Dirk). Barkley could take care of everything else for you though (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, draw tons of defensive attention/doubles, put teams in foul trouble etc etc).
- Has choked away really winnable series, particularly in '94 and '95 (Dirk has black marks like this too)...but if it makes it any better the only players he lost to from '90-'95 were Hakeem and Jordan, two guys who owned the decade.
- Poor shot selection and his 15+ foot shooting could be really erratic/unreliable at times.
- Poor attitude, could feud with anyone on the team/management. Bailed out on at least two teams imo, though I agree with him on wanting to leave Philly. They made some awful, awful moves during his time there.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#66 » by 34Dayz » Mon Aug 1, 2011 4:06 pm

@UBF

The early 00 Spurs teams had to focus their defense on stopping Shaq so Kobe rarely faced double teams or the type of pressure he faced in his last 2peat when he was the best offensive option on his team.
They also had an extreme lack of good perimeter defenders, the combination of these two factors was the perfect storm for Bryant or really any Top-Tier wing player. So although you say he was beating up on a good defensive team its alot deeper then that because in reality he was beating up on some very poor perimeter defenders and the bigmen in the post couldn't help off Shaq so it was easy for him to get buckets inside and out in those series.. sort of a pick your poison understand?

The spurs later got Bowen who was a good perimeter defender but again they had to focus on Shaq and 1on1 Bowen is not really a good defender for Kobe because he is short and stocky and its length + double teams that bother Bryant same with the Kings and Christie.

I give Kobe credit for what he did against the Magic in the Finals.. probably his best performance in the Finals Post-Shaq but Orlando was good defensively because of Dwight.. they didn't really have any good perimeter defenders.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#67 » by ElGee » Mon Aug 1, 2011 4:10 pm

therealbig3 wrote:ElGee, he finished that Boston game with 3 mediocre games, and in terms of sample size, it's pretty much nothing, but isn't it a little (for lack of a better word) "weird" how he happened to have 3 mediocre games at the most crucial point of his team's season? Hornets vs Lakers is different, because the Hornets were clear underdogs, and they finished well behind the Lakers during the regular season. The Cavs finished 11 games better than the Celtics in 2010, and were the 1 seed to the Celtics 4 seed. Many people picked the Cavs to win. So yeah, I don't think it's too much to expect the Cavs to win the series after going up 2-1.

And that's when LeBron's 3 mediocre games happened, including a WTF game 5. IMO, it's definitely something he should be called out on, as is his recent Finals. And his 07 Finals is a similar WTF series...it's okay to struggle against an elite defensive team when you're the only real offensive threat, fine...but he had one of the worst Finals series of all time by a star player. For someone of LeBron James's caliber, that's inexcusable to me.

His 2007 Finals, his 2010 series against Boston, and his 2011 Finals are black marks against LeBron to me. How big those black marks are depends on the rest of his career. If LeBron turns in "normal performances" in those series, we might be looking at 2-3 championships for LeBron's teams.

We're definitely looking at at least one championship in 2011 with a "normal" LeBron performance, and the last two losses to San Antonio were 3 and 1 point losses respectively. Also, the Cavs were only down by 5 points at the half against the Spurs in Game 1. LeBron had terrible shooting nights in all 3 of those games...his only decent game of the series came in a Spurs blowout Game 2 win. And after Boston in 2010, who knows what would have happened if the Cavs advanced?


I don't think the 3 mediocre games were weird at all. Were Michael Jordan's first 3 games of the 1993 ECF "weird?" Was it because he was in Atlantic City? Having affairs? Drunk with power? No one remembers this because his team was good enough to win a game in which he shot 3-18, literally saving the season for them. LeBron James played on a team in Cleveland that was 1-13 without him from 08-10 in the RS and in playoffs, 1-13 when James had a gamescore under 15. He had no room for error. No one to cover up his bad games. Just about everyone else in history did.

And there was nothing weird about LeBron's game 6. His game 4 he didn't have a good go either...maybe give the Boston defense a LIIIIIIITLE bit of a credit. They were awesome in that game - get the tape and I'll break it down if you want. At that point in the playoffs, they had the lowest relative DRtg 2 series into a PS in NBA history (post 74). It's not "too much" to expect them to win the series, I'm just saying that people didn't realize at the time how good the Celtics were. Including the RS, Boston played Cleveland 9 times (5 away) with their starting lineup and outscored the Cavs by 31 points, or 3.4 per game.

And I think Mike Brown's lineups and certain offensive strategies in that series hurt the Cavs. In other words, with the guys on the court, LeBron was looking at serious tough sledding again. Sucks for him, but it happens sometimes. Someone else can just be better (ask Karl Malone or Jerry West about this).

His 2007 Finals? I just didn't think he was a great player in 2007 and had no chance against the Spurs. I mean individually, against that defense, with his teammates. So I don't see how he as 2-3 championships with "normal" performances, at all.

The whole point about 2011 and perspective is that they wouldn't have been in the position they were in to win if James weren't so good in the first place. If he didn't do what he did against Boston (or Rondo getting hurt) or do what he did against Chicago. If he were 15% worse against Chicago, so not noticeably bad, and Miami loses, what's the reaction then? Instead, he's really stunningly good, puts himself in a position to play more, and struggles, and all anyone wants to talk about is the struggles. I think that's due to a recency/losing bias, and I've been vocal about for all players who I think are subject to that.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#68 » by ronnymac2 » Mon Aug 1, 2011 4:26 pm

Just in case I can't get back...

Vote: LeBron James

Nominate: Isiah Thomas

But I've learned the value of Steve Nash, and if I get back, that nom nom nom might change.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#69 » by ElGee » Mon Aug 1, 2011 4:31 pm

Sedale Threatt wrote:
ElGee wrote:I couldn't disagree with this more than anything I've ever seen you type. (1) Being results oriented in a small sample is problematic for obvious reasons. (2) The reasons for the results matter heavily -- if some guy plays 58 minutes in a game and then is tired the next afternoon, that reason matters. It's no different than an injury.


I guess I feel the same way.

I'm in the same camp as mystic here in that the lengths you seem to be going to either excuse or downplay what happened against Dallas verge on the bizarre. To the point that I have to wonder -- with respect -- if you were ever an athlete if you honestly think mental and/or physical fatigue are excusable reasons for failure.

Legitimate? I guess.

But that should be the last reason and athlete fails to perform. It's your freaking job to stay in peak shape and compete. And to say in this case, oh well, LeBron completely disappeared in the Finals, with an opportunity to cement his legacy and silence his myriad critics, but he just got tired...I don't think there's any possible way to sugar coat that one.

Hell, if that was indeed the case, it actually makes it worse, to me. Maybe for one game, it's understandable. But not an entire series.


What you call downplaying I call having perspective. I don't radically shift my opinion on something that has 100,000 data points of evidence when I get 10 new data points. There's nothing to "downplay," unless by that you mean that I think people overreact and tend to throw out all past information and obsess over recent information. I've never said it wasn't bad, and my analysis of it is simply that. How in the world you get something non-negative from what I've said I don't know -- I just don't think there's ample evidence for people to play the ridiculous narrative cards they are playing, Tragic Johnson style.

ElGee wrote:This is my whole point with this series. His G6 wasn't a choke or weird. His game 4 wasn't great. His whole series was still pretty good, his playoffs still very good, his whole season excellent. If you are lambasting someone for 3 mediocre games, you seriously need to re-evaluate where you have the bar set.


More downplaying.

"Wasn't great" actually equates to one of his fifth or sixth worst games of the season, according to B-R game scores. Followed by the worst, one of the great WTF? games in NBA history, one that left pretty much everybody who watched it baffled by what they'd just seen.

Those two games weren't just "mediocre." You have to get through poor and atrocious (I wonder, considering the stakes, if he'll ever have a game that bad the of his career), before we finally get to mediocre in Game 6.

Taken as a whole, it was a miserable stretch of basketball that, just like this year's Finals, sabotaged a very winnable series.


And other than the armchair psychology in game 5, how is that different than what Michael Jordan went through in the first 3 games of the 93 ECF? And yes, his G4 wasn't very good. Not the disaster the box makes it out to be because his defense was quite good in that game, as well as his creation.

ElGee wrote:As for G5, they were down by 17 entering the 4th. Do you know how often a team comes back from that deficit? Furthermore, mister results, they actually lost by 32. ;) (Down by 27 when LBJ checked out in the 4th) LeBron would have had to have made Cleveland 33 points better that day, all things being equal.


I'm pretty sure if he'd bothered to show up, they wouldn't have been in that position in the first place. Again, I can't help but take this as more downplaying and minimization. It's like you don't want to acknowledge that their best player evaporating like we've seen few players evaporate had anything to do with the outcome.

"Yeah, he wasn't good, but because the margin of defeat was so large, they weren't going to win anyways, so what's the big deal?" That's about the only way I can interpret your angle here, and I just can't accept that.


NO. That's not it AT ALL. Either I've done a horrendous job of communicating for the last year, or you are just not listening. The win/loss element is INDEPENDENT of individual player performance. Stars play a role, but it's not as big as one thinks. To *expect* James to be +33 relative to where he was in that game is ludicrous. That's germane to YOUR point about winning/losing/title shots. I don't care about the team winning when I analyze his play.

I'm saying guys have bad games here and there. Even Michael Jordan. You notice them/obsess over them more when players are in situations that can't "cover them up" with a win.

By just about all accounts, most elite players from the last 20 years have had more bad games than LeBron James. They aren't criticized and hyper-analyzed because most of them have been on better teams/in better situations. Basically, as I've written, he's a perfect storm of high-profile superstar being compared to Jordan, only he's naked all the time. He's never had a team to cover up the few times he shows up with a pimple, and it almost happened in Miami the first time that situation arose in the Finals. It WILL happen in the future if Miami adds size/depth.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#70 » by mysticbb » Mon Aug 1, 2011 4:47 pm

ElGee wrote:What you call "excuses" is perspective I provide for every player. I've been vocal about players who lose because I believe it creates biases that radically adjusts this perspective.


I agree, and I've seen you being vocal for a lot of players in such situations, but NEVER in the extent as for LeBron James. Everything which is brought up is in your words either small sample, just bad luck and so on. Everytime you bring up the Heat you are mention what kind of weaknesses they had, but I haven't seen you acknowledge the strength, the fact that having Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh is something positive for a team, not something per se negative only because there are redundancies.

ElGee wrote:This is the second time you've call me ignorant


Yes, and I will continue to do so unless you stop ignoring the facts. Like in this answer again, it is more important to you what you found in a small sample than looking at the whole data.

ElGee wrote: -- in what way is that conducive to conversation? Do you think that if you call me "ignorant or stupid, or both"


I called you stupid? When? You are not stupid, not the slightest, you are one of the smartest posters around, that's why I'm so surprised that you don't see your bias. Calling you ignorant is based upon my opinion, based on the lack of acknowledgement of certain facts and rather looking to find excuses.

ElGee wrote:as you did in the post you are referring to that "I didn't have the manners to answer" that you will receive a response?


It seems like it worked. ;)

ElGee wrote:Especially when I've already addressed the points, only you've just suddenly become so dogmatic they aren't good enough for you. (Or, frankly, you don't understand.)


When did you address the whole bunch of data I presented you about the +/- numbers for both players? Did you explain why Nowitzki's numbers are close to James, even though the whole idea about dimishing returns should be in favor of James due to the worse performance of the Cavaliers without James? I haven't seen you are doing it.
I also haven't seen a reasonable explanation why the Mavericks are constantly playing much better with Nowitzki than without him. Maybe I missed and I'm indeed ignorant, but as far as I see it the only response were some sort of bizarre logic about luck and coincidence.

ElGee wrote:Find where I said that. You keep making stuff up and constantly citing it to me even though I never said it or it wasn't even a part of the conversation.


During numerous discussions you wrote that James was basically the same player as in the season before. Wasn't he?

ElGee wrote:I cited JOHN HOLLINGER'S numbers after the season ended talking to someone else. You asked where I got them and I linked. You checked the numbers and he flipped them. Your version of that story paints me as someone radically clinging to numbers to "support a bias." What bias? The "I read an article at the end of the season bias in which someone made a sign error" bias? I'm not even sure you are aware of what you're alleging.


My version of the story is: I told you this is wrong twice before and you kept saying it again. After the third time you bothered to look the numbers up. I got the impression regarding this that you were fine with those numbers without checking them, because that was supporting your view. Maybe it isn't James related, but rather your intention to be vocal against players getting way too much critics. You were convinced that luck played a big role in that series and those free throw numbers supported your view, that's why you didn't check them. I have the impression that you would have checked those numbers, if the article would have said that the Heat lost despite getting 17 unexpected points via free throws. That's my impression I got from YOUR REACTION, from you ignoring twice my comments regarding this.

ElGee wrote:What is the point of this rant?


Rant? Citing and interpreting numbers is now a rant?

ElGee wrote:I've done extensive box score analysis on his playoff performance relative to regular season and his PS play against good/bad defenses. I don't see what "99% vs 90%" in 2 stats have to do as some important, new piece of evidence, particularly when you are comparing players to themselves.


So, you are fine with James playing worse in the playoffs? You are fine with James playing bascially on the same level against better teams as Nowitzki in terms of boxscore stats?

ElGee wrote:Where do you get this? Look at LeBron's last 25 games against elite defenses. Or his performance in the last 3 years against elite defenses. (Wait, should I say "you've ignored it" and you are ignorant or you have a reading bias because it's already been posted and discussed?) I've already expressed my opinion on such matters, I don't really feel the need to restate it because you didn't read it or are simply ignoring it. I'm pretty sure I've never deviated from my interpretation of numbers and treatment of sample sizes. Either find where I did, or stop making up stuff.


That's exactly what I meant. I used 7 years of data for James and you are pointing out how the last 25 games were and how he played in the last 3 years against a small fraction of teams with "elite defense". Really? That is your argument and you are not ignoring the rest? If the 7 years data would show how good James is against better teams, I bet you would acknowledge that right away.


ElGee wrote:No, that's not why I want James over Nowitzki.


But that is the reason for James better boxscore numbers. He increases his output and efficiency against weaker teams, while Nowitzki basically stays the same, because he is just doing less. That is where the difference in boxscore stats comes from. Not from James' elite play against the 0.500+ teams, it comes from the difference in the playing level against sub-500 teams.

ElGee wrote:Do you seriously have no idea how I think about these two players?


No, I think you pick James, because you are rather convinced someone can help a team with doing something with the ball than doing something without the ball. You are not looking in the differences in the game off the ball, that's why you think James is so much better and more impactful.

ElGee wrote:You seem to think Dirk has been the same player for 11 years.


Where did I say that? But his impact over the last 11 years is basically the same. He done it differently, but the results are fairly equal.

ElGee wrote:Have you been watching closely that whole time, or are you just using PM?


Obviously only PM. :roll:

ElGee wrote:The great irony of this, of course, is that I've stated many times it doesn't much matter where LeBron goes because he's in the middle of his career. But you knew that already...


Yeah, I know that, but I still don't get your decision here. Why do you even participate, if you don't care about the result?

So, maye I've done that all wrong, but maybe you can tell what kind of evidence you have that James was so much better during 7 years than Nowitzki that we can ignore the remaining 4 years of Nowitzki, in which he was the best player on the Mavericks in terms of boxscore and +/- stats. In which he made a BIGGER difference to the Mavericks than LeBron James when we take out the two best seasons of both players. Is 2009 and 2010 really that much of a decision maker for you?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#71 » by Gongxi » Mon Aug 1, 2011 5:15 pm

LeBron and Artis, just like last thread.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#72 » by MacGill » Mon Aug 1, 2011 5:16 pm

And other than the armchair psychology in game 5, how is that different than what Michael Jordan went through in the first 3 games of the 93 ECF? And yes, his G4 wasn't very good. Not the disaster the box makes it out to be because his defense was quite good in that game, as well as his creation.


Jordan was already a 2x NBA champion and finals MVP champion by this point so I am not sure I follow your point here. He already proved to do what many have started to question about LBJ on the big stage.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#73 » by Baller 24 » Mon Aug 1, 2011 5:25 pm

Didn't get a chance to reply to this from the last thread until now.

An Unbiased Fan wrote:The context of John Stockton being selected for the Dream Team is VASTLY different from Laettner, who only got in becuase they wanted to pick one college guy. The point is that your earlier comparison of Stockton to Mark Jackson was off base.


Still, although it's respectable and admirable that they are representing our country, it doesn't make him any greater, especially considering it was one of the weakest points in NBA history for point-guards (prior to Payton/Kidd/Hardaway).

MVP =/= Best player


Exactly. Which Stockton never got any acknowledgement for,

I mean really, Nash has more MVPs than Shaq, but his peak was no where comparable. Stockton wasn't going to get high MVP rankings when he teammate is Karl Malone. Nash wouldn't have been getting top MVP votes in the 90's either, so it's a strange point to begin with. Nash wouldn't have been given major MVP votes if he had stayed next to Dirk, who was a better player.


You can nitpick all you want, but we're talking about FACTS that have been DONE. Nash has been there, done that, and did in historic fashion offensively, talk about numbers all you want but production wise Nash was the foundation set around 5 of the greatest offenses ever, and he's done it with different teammates, coaches, and offensive schemes.

Stockton's elite years blow Nash out of the water production-wise. How can you dismiss his utter domination at the PG position?


Yet even then, Stockton was never the best player on any of his teams in any given seasons, while yet even during Utah's peak finals runs, he was going DOWN in production, drastically, and EVEN then there's no correlation to MVP voting impact wise.

1) You're confused why a PG leading the NBA 8 straight years in apg is relevant? Really, why? It shows that Stockton beat Nash's best year in apg...8 straight seasons during his prime. Stockton's production blows Nash out of the water, and he did it for a much longer span of years.


Yet he still didn't anchor one of the finest offense ever, where's the correlation? There is none. Again, production wise he's still not close, therefore making all of this analysis irrelevant.

2) Accolade-wise, Stockton has more All-NBA teams, and 5 All-D teams. Stockton was never high in MVP rankings, but again, that had to do with how people voted in that era, and his star teammate.


Yet, peak still trumps everything. As it clearly determines the better player. I'll say it again, Stockton put up many great seasons, but there were never anywhere close to being elite-superstar caliber seasons. What makes him even greater than Pippen?

Nash's efficiency went up due to rule changes & D'Antoni's schemes.


Yet he continued that in numerous offensive schemes without D'Antoni, AND utilized his style of play to put even more historic seasons offensively speaking under different coaches. Point is moot.

Also, When we talk about all-time greats, longevity factors in, and for most of his career, Nash wasn't a 50/40/90 guy, nor did he top 8.8 apg. Nash's USG% was actually higher than Stockton's, even in Dallas.


No, clearly not. We look at overall skill and how they impact the game of basketball, more realistically speaking who the better basket-ball player is, that's where I'll say it again peak trumps everything.

So when you have a guy like Stockton who did this for 15 years, it's quite striking. Think about this, in 2003 Stock was 40 years old, yet still dishing out 7.7 apg. Nash was 28 and dropped 7.3 apg. Even past his prime, Stockton out-produced Nash every year they were in the league together. In Stock's first 2 years he had 7.4 & 8.2 apg, but in only 23.6 & 22.7 mpg. So even when "he was under utilized", he produced.


I have no idea why total assists averages per season is such a big deal, because it does not automatically determine the greater player. Ex. Look at Mark Jackson.

Considered the 6th greatest offense by whom?? Because I sure don't consider them such. Also, how can Nash get a pass for his lower numbers in Dallas, because "he wasn't utilized enough", yet still get credit for Dallas's offense? Strange.


Objective evidence? http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6205 Nash was allowed to play with more fluidity, especially after they decided to trade for all of those offensive players in Walker & Jamison. Nash began to handle the offensive load in a different style and scheme, look at quotes from '03 & '04 by Nelson.

In 2005, without Nash.....the Mavs won 6 MORE games, and their ORtg was still 4th in the NBA at 110.3. Funny enough.....their DRtg went from 26th (107.4) with Nash, to 9th (104.1) in 05', hehe.


Yet it still wasn't a historic offense, they dropped notches offensively.

In 2006, Dallas was #1 in ORtg, and #2 in 2007. So no, I don't see much of a drop-off. In fact, it's telling that Dallas had more success once Nash left....


LOL, The Suns had the best statistical offense of all-time in '07, and 10th greatest in '06 (without his most lethal offensive option in Amar'e, Joe Johnson & Richardson gone). Please stop.

No, blaming a lack of utilization for Nash's numbers in Dallas, is an excuse. Saying that Nash has always played on offensively orientated teams is reality. And I can't believe you're arguing that he's been on offensively structured teams. Don Nelson & D'Antoni is all the evidence you need. The guy had Dirk & Finley in Dallas, and then Amare, Marion & Joe in PHX.


Yet in '04 with Amar'e, Marion, & Joe all fully healthy the Suns went 10-30, and with the simple modifications and additions of Nash & Richardson in the lineup had statistically and historically the 2nd greatest offense of all-time. What about Chris Duhon or Billups, why haven't they replicated his offensive numbers then? Offensively structured yes, but Nash even under Gentry had statistically the 4th greatest offense ever, while even under Porter had the 11th greatest. Not sure if you're seeing the correlation but these are different players, schemes, and coaches.

Compare that to the list of guys Stockton turned into 10+ ppg scorers in Utah...
Karl Malone
Thurl Bailey
Darrell Griffith
Jeff Malone
Blue Edwards
Tyrone Corbin
Hornacek
David Benoit
Chris Morris
Byron Russell
^
He put up way better numbers passing to these guys.


?


You reference Amar'e, Bell, Shaq, Marion, Barbosa, Johnson, as having their highs in efficiency with Nash, but that's a bit of a red herring. Shaq's best year didn't come with Nash, nor did JJ's. Amare & Marion's primes both overlap with Nash, so it's hardly surprising that they had their most efficient years next to him.


Umm, Joe Johnson was pre-prime before entering prime when he played next to Nash, Marion DEMANDED a trade at the midst prime of his career because he wanted to have more attention on the team, while Amar'e just a season ago was putting up numbers on ridiculous efficiency, yet for them all they take a drastic and significant dip playing without him. Stop with the excuses.

Conversely, Dirk had his best years post-Nash, so again the point is mute.


This has been beaten to death, Nash with the Mavs was clearly not used in the same style or context, Don Nelson in 2003 mentioned in an interview that he liked resting Nash and letting him take less loads offensively because he wanted him utilized to his fullest come playoff time because he KNEW of Nash's clear abilities as a point-guard.

What various times are you referring to? Nash has had offensive teams in PHX. The whole system he ran is vastly different from what Sloan ran in Utah. Even still Stockton's production dwarfed Nash's.


Yet Stockton was never elite, never correlated with MVP voting, and he never came close to putting up a historic offense.

Except Stockton has a higher career TS%, so where do you get the idea that Nash is more efficient at scoring???


Peak/prime yes, TS% favors Nash. If we're talking about strictly being the better basketball player, peak trumps everything. Peak gives you the chance to contend, Stockton was clearly nowhere near the peak levels of Nash. If you say so then where's the MVP voting correlation OR the objective statistical evidence you speak so "highly" of. All you've done is point of assist numbers, yet those assist numbers have never led to anything statistically large in a team concept.

And I never said Stockton was a lockdown defender, his strength lies in team defense. He was tremendous at disrupting passing lanes, and perhaps the best PG at stripping bigs of the ball(which is why he's the all-time steals leader).


Okay?

Again, what are you basing the "5 of the top 11 greatest offensives ever" claim on? I hope it's not ORtg.


Oh its not, I know you're just going to completely dismantle every statistic because it's somehow immune to "your" player, or even flip-flop arguments when it doesn't support "your" player. http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=6205

And I guess we're counting the Dallas years again, when Nash "wasn't utilized enough", and giving him credit for those team offensive numbers..


Never said that, you look at the clear increase in '04 where Nelson let Nash handle the offense more fluidity, the statistics speak for themselves, at the time recording a career high for himself in assists.

Stockton's best year > Nash's best year. Stockton's elite years >>> Nash's.


Where is the MVP voting correlating this? Where is the statistical evidence suggesting this? Why is it that during Stockton's best years the Jazz were consistently getting toasted in the playoffs, yet during the seasons where Malone is still playing at a close-to-peak level and Stockton's production goes down, the Jazz somehow are playing at peak dominating form? Just because UAF writes ">>>" doesn't mean anything, considering you're just basing this off of biased nitpicking, flip-flopping opinions that have still yet to be backed up by objective evidence, you have yet to STILL answer any of my questions.

Nash got 2 narrative based MVPs, but it's not like he was a consensus Top 5 player during those years either.


Consensus? I like this one considering a majority of documented articles, even the RPOY project, and objective evidence correlated with MVP voting states this. He was the foundation of numerous offensive schemes that were historically and statistically RECORD BREAKING.

Was he better than Kobe, Bron, Wade, Dirk, Duncan, KG, Paul, etc.?


Yeah, he's on par with them, and vastly ahead of Paul in '05, '06 & '07.

Stockton's production on both sides of the court is higher than Nash at their respective peaks. And it's not even close when you look at their careers.


*yawn*
MVP correlation
statistical evidence
peak team dominance
championship contender
*yawn*

And I like how you bring only Nash into this. My main arguments are centered around Nash, Payton, Isiah, & Kidd.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#74 » by mysticbb » Mon Aug 1, 2011 5:39 pm

ElGee wrote:1-13 when James had a gamescore under 15.


Is that a typo? Because in 2010 alone the Cavaliers 5-3 in such games.

ElGee wrote:He had no room for error. No one to cover up his bad games. Just about everyone else in history did.


But how should someone be there to cover up his bad games, when James needs to have the ball in his hand to be effective? Which role does James' own weakness in moving off the ball play?


ElGee wrote:The whole point about 2011 and perspective is that they wouldn't have been in the position they were in to win if James weren't so good in the first place. If he didn't do what he did against Boston (or Rondo getting hurt) or do what he did against Chicago. If he were 15% worse against Chicago, so not noticeably bad, and Miami loses, what's the reaction then? Instead, he's really stunningly good, puts himself in a position to play more, and struggles, and all anyone wants to talk about is the struggles. I think that's due to a recency/losing bias, and I've been vocal about for all players who I think are subject to that.


It is really interesting that you are saying this. But you said in a previous post that you were not so impressed with Nowitzki in 2006 due to "HIS giant shortcomming". Nowitzki in 2006 played BETTER in the playoffs than James, he played BETTER than James in the finals, but somehow you are labelling Nowitzki's play as "giant shortcomming" and when the people are doing it with James it is recency/losing bias? What is that in your case?
Wasn't Nowitzki's play against the Grizzlies, Spurs and Suns the very reason for the Maverick to be in such situation? Wasn't Nowitzki's really good game through 42 minutes in game 3 in Miami the reason for the Mavericks being up at that time? It is weird that you are calling other people biased while doing the same thing just not with the same player.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#75 » by colts18 » Mon Aug 1, 2011 6:05 pm

What's Nash argument over Isiah?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#76 » by colts18 » Mon Aug 1, 2011 6:06 pm

mysticbb wrote:
ElGee wrote:1-13 when James had a gamescore under 15.


Is that a typo? Because in 2010 alone the Cavaliers 5-3 in such games.


Probably is. But from 2007-2010, the Cavs were 0-10 in the playoffs when LeBron had a <15 game score and 6-15 when LeBron was <20 game score.

in 2007:
Cavs undefeated when LeBron had a >20 game score (10-0) >25 game score (4-0) and >30 game score (2-0). 2-8 with <20 game score and 0-5 <15 game score

2008:
6-3 >20 game score. 3-2 with >25 game score and 1-1 with >30 game score (loss was game 7 vs. Celtics). 1-3 under 20 game score and 0-3 with under 15 game score

2009:
9-3 with >20 game score. 8-3 with >25 game score. 5-2 with >30 game score with a loss in his best game off 44.7 game score. 1-1 with <20 game score and 0 games with <15 game score

2010:
4-2 with >20 game score. 4-1 with >25 and >30 game score. 2-3 under 20 game score and 0-2 with under 15.

That means LeBron's teams were 29-8 (.784) with >20 game score, 19-6 (.760) with >25 game score, and 14-4 (.778) with >30 game score. But with under 20 game score his team 6-15 (.286) and 0-10 (.000) with under 15 game score.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#77 » by colts18 » Mon Aug 1, 2011 6:45 pm

In the same 07-10 span, Kobe's teams are 33-11 (.750) when he has a >20 game score and 14-14 (.500) game score when he has a sub 20 game score and 4-10 (.286) with a sub 15 game score. That shows you the huge difference in supporting cast. LeBron's teams always lost when he had a mediocre game.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#78 » by mysticbb » Mon Aug 1, 2011 6:58 pm

colts18 wrote:LeBron's teams always lost when he had a mediocre game.


But what is the implication here? That the Cavaliers heavily depended on him to have a good game with the ball in his hand or might it just be the case that James can not offer much when he is not doing well with the ball? How many times did you see James setting effective screens for his teammates to have a clear path to the basket? How many times did James set screens in order to get a teammate the opportunity to get an open look from the perimeter? How many times did James move so well off the ball that he was able to get into a good position for a score? How many times did James work in the post for a better position close to the basket?
Is it really the case that James done everything possible, or is that just an sign of a weakness in his game which can't be easily fixed by putting other teammates around him? How should that work with another ball handler who needs spacing and the screens? We even saw a worse performance by Dwyane Wade during the time he was on the court with James. Is that all Wade's fault?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#79 » by Fencer reregistered » Mon Aug 1, 2011 7:02 pm

Sedale Threatt wrote:
Fencer reregistered wrote:There's a bit of a selection bias in that your worst playoff series is also likely to wind up having been your last one of the season, hence the most important, and also the most memorable.


It's a bit more than that, for me. It's the combination of the last two.


What did LBJ do wrong against the Bulls? I admit to having been too depressed to pay much attention ... :(
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #17 

Post#80 » by Fencer reregistered » Mon Aug 1, 2011 7:06 pm

fatal9 wrote: Bailed out on at least two teams imo, though I agree with him on wanting to leave Philly. They made some awful, awful moves during his time there.


My policy is to give anybody one mulligan on wanting to leave a team. They're not slaves. More than one and they're probably malcontents, however, although special considerations may apply. Major examples of such mulligans are each of Wilt, Shaq, and Kareem to LA, and LeBron to Miami.

Feuds with teammates, however, can be very bad, in that they strongly detract from winning, and we're ultimately evaluating guys on how much they help their teams win.
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