RealGM Top 100 List #31

[therealbig3]

My count:

Vote:

Stockton-5 (mysticbb, DavidStern, FJS, SDChargers#1, Fencer reregistered)

Payton-5 (TMACFORMVP, ronnymac2, ElGee, Snakebites, therealbig3)

Drexler-2 (JordansBulls, fatal9)

Gilmore-1 (penbeast0)

Kidd-1 (drza)

Pierce-1 (Dr Mufasa)



Nominate:

Dominique-4 (TMACFORMVP, JordansBulls, drza, Snakebites)

McAdoo-4 (ronnymac2, babyjax13, fatal9, Dr Mufasa)

Paul-2 (ElGee, DavidStern)

Hayes-2 (FJS, SDChargers#1)

KJ-1 (therealbig3)

Cousy-1 (Fencer reregistered)

Moncrief-1 (penbeast0)

Miller-1 (mysticbb)


NOTE: babyjax13 voted for Stockton, but he's not on the voter list.

[Laimbeer]

Nice to see Stockton in the lead, deserved and overdue.

I can't see Nique or McAdoo here - not well rounded players and didn't breed team success.

I'll bring Hayes to three votes - if one or two will flip we can put him over the top. Better all around player, better longevity, and won a title. Top ten all time in points and rebounds.

Vote: Stockton
Nominate: Hayes

[Sedale Threatt]

Stockton, Wilkins

[Dr Positivity]

I was curious to see how TOs affect T-Mac's efficiency, so I'm using some crude math (mainly because I don't really know a better way to do this).

TS% basically tries to estimate points/possession. So for example, we see that in the 01 playoffs, T-Mac had a 48.3 TS%. So I estimate that to be 48.3 points/100 possessions. We also see that he had a 5.4 TOV%, which is 5.4 TOs/100 possessions. So in 100 possessions, T-Mac will score 48.3 points and have 5.4 TOs.

Compare this to Kobe in the 07 playoffs, in which he had a 56.1 TS%. So that's 56.1 points/100 possessions. He also had a 13.1 TOV%, which is 13.1 TOs/100 possessions. So in 100 possessions, Kobe will score 56.1 points and have 13.1 TOs.

So overall, Kobe is wasting 13.1 possessions, while T-Mac is wasting 5.4 possessions. If we add that to the 100 possessions, T-Mac is scoring 48.3 points on 105.4 possessions, while Kobe is scoring 56.1 points on 113.1 possessions.

The adjusted TS% for these would be 45.8% for T-Mac, and 49.6% for Kobe. Compared to league average TS%:

01 T-Mac: -6.2%
07 Kobe: -4.5%

So T-Mac greatly closes the gap in terms of efficiency, while dishing out almost 17 more assists per 100 possessions and grabbing half a rebound more per 100 possessions. He also played better defense.

If my way of calculating things is acceptable (I understand it's flawed, it's just an attempt at estimating things), T-Mac's 01 playoffs is statistically superior to Kobe's 07 playoffs, but a quick glance at ppg, apg, rpg, and TS% wouldn't reveal that.

Well noteably, Tmac's 01 has a 110 individual ORTG and Kobe's 07 is 111. So your manual work saying they're level looks pretty solid

[colts18]

But like I said, McHale played less minutes and deferred to Bird. And since I wanted to use 10 years for McHale, I used 82 and 83, when his volume scoring was only around 12%. When Gasol played with Kobe, he averaged 17.9% of his team's points, and when you consider the difference in minutes, that's pretty much the same as McHale's average. And even with McHale as the 2nd option in 87, he averaged 23.2%...Gasol never got that high, even as a 1st option in Memphis. Then you have the big gap in efficiency.

And where do you get the idea that Gasol is equal on defense?

Better scoring and better defense for McHale, by a good amount, imo. Better passing by a good amount, and slightly better rebounding for Gasol, imo. Gasol also has him beat in terms of longevity. But is that enough? Seems like McHale has some big advantages in scoring and defense.

And Gasol deferred to one of the biggest ballhogs. Sure McHale deferred to Bird, but his efficiency rose because of that which is why it fell when Bird left.

As far as defense, Gasol has a pretty good defensive reputation and the eye test certainly agree with that. In 08, he shut down Martin, Boozer, and Duncan. In 2 finals, Gasol has held Garnett to 16.6 PPG, 9 Reb, .508 TS%.

Gasol had a big impact since coming to the Lakers. In 2008, The Lakers had a 5.25 MOV before the trade (including 35 games of Bynum and 18 games of Ariza) and a .643 win% which went up to 11.56 MOV and .808 win% with Gasol. Since Gasol has been traded, the Lakers are .740 win% with him. In 2010, they had a +1.41 MOV and .647 win% without him in 17 games, and +5.58 MOV and a .708 win% with him in 65 games.

[Doctor MJ]

Just as a general point, do we overrate efficiency here? I see players with a lot of recognition and admirable traits that are written as being "inefficient" the kiss of death.

Efficiency counts, I just feel it's overblown at times, to the extent of ignoring about everything else.

This is an excellent question to ask, but what to do with it is complex. By this point I feel like y'all must have seen me talk about the notion that the gap between good and bad offense is very fine, and that the vast majority of points any guy could score could be replicated by others. I can go into that further, but I don't want to do a general rant, so let me know if you have a specific critique.

I feel like the essence of what you're driving at though is an idea that some of us infinitely punish inefficient guys. So let me put into perspective how much I "punish" Hayes relative to others.

Hayes finished in the Top 3-5 MVP votes 4 times and the Top 10 6 times total.
I have him in the Top 5 in my POY 1 time, and in my Top 10 4 times.

So literally, it's like on average I'm knocking him down around 3 spots. Doesn't seem that crazy to me, does it to you? Not saying you have to agree with my actual opinion, but as someone who puts an emphasis on not wasting possessions, isn't that kind a fall off about what you expect?

The bigger disparity is how I rate Miller. He never makes the top 10 of MVP voting, but he made my Top 10 4 times in POY (which obvious is shaped by playoff performance). So you see, from a MVP/POY perspective, I've got these two guys pretty comparable, and then I give big props for his ability to always help a team outside of those years, which is not unrelated to his efficiency.

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: Gilmore

So first off, Gilmore was my choice coming into this, and I'm not ready to go against him. Him vs Stockton was the main thing I started thinking about, and there as I've said before, I see to very similar guys who spent the bulk of their career being a little two careful to be considered top tier. But early on in his career, Gilmore had top of the line athleticism which led him be a true superstar, and that gives him the edge for me.

Payton's the wild card. I've been hearing some great arguments for Payton vs Stockton. I have to admit I have a real hangup about Payton based on how he was in LA. Zero doubt in my mind that Stockton would have faired far better. Even old man Stockton, and even prime Payton. Payton not only is classified as a PG, but thought he was a great one, and it turns out, not even close.

But didn't exactly have problems applying his game to be the star of effective offenses, which is more than what Stockton proved, so how much am I really going to hold that against him? Add in superior defense, and the fact that he didn't exactly have a short prime.

Were it a tie between Payton and Stockton then, at this point, I'd go with Payton. But it isn't, and I need to think on Gilmore vs Payton more before I change anything there.

Nomination: Miller

Guys like I say, go look at Wilkins and Reggie's stats closely. Go look at the advanced stats like PER and WS, go look at the scoring volume of both guys in the playoffs and how similar it looks but with Miller being drastically more efficient.

I really have a tough time even making and argument for Nique here.

[penbeast0]

Updating therealbig3's numbers for our final count unless someone corrects it gives us

Vote :

Stockton-7 (mysticbb, DavidStern, FJS, SDChargers#1, Fencer reregistered, Laimbeer, Sedale Threatt)

Payton-5 (TMACFORMVP, ronnymac2, ElGee, Snakebites, therealbig3)

Drexler-2 (JordansBulls, fatal9)

Gilmore-2 (penbeast0, Doctor MJ)

Kidd-1 (drza)

Pierce-1 (Dr Mufasa)



Nominate:

Dominique-5 (TMACFORMVP, JordansBulls, drza, Snakebites, Sedale Threatt)

McAdoo-3 (ronnymac2, fatal9, Dr Mufasa)

Paul-2 (ElGee, DavidStern)

Hayes-2 (FJS, SDChargers#1, Laimbeer)

Miller-2 (mysticbb, Doctor MJ)
KJ-1 (therealbig3)

Cousy-1 (Fencer reregistered)

Moncrief-1 (penbeast0)



Not Eligible to vote:

Babyjax3

[Sedale Threatt]

I actually feel pretty bad about nominating Wilkins. But I looked at the list of candidates and it was just...blah. Feels like throwing darts up on the wall at this point.

[Sedale Threatt]

I can't see Nique or McAdoo here - not well rounded players and didn't breed team success.

Conversely, Hayes -- or Silent E, as Peter Vescey used to call him -- is one of the NBA's all-time horse's asses.

[penbeast0]

And McAdoo with his ego and drugs wasn't -- at least for a significant part of his career?

[Dr Positivity]

Nique's PERs are better than Reggie's

Both guys were 10-12 WS players in their primes. One of the big reasons for Reggie's total WS gap is Nique had like 7 WS after 35, Reggie had like 43. They are 57 WS apart so that covers most of it. Not that Reggie shouldn't deserves credit for being useful so late but Nique's prime is legitimately sized enough that if I think he's the better player, I'd take him. Not that he necessarily is, but PER and WS aren't convincing me of Reggie's case. Reggie's playoff performances are very good, though.

On the TS% topic, I'm starting to favor individual ORTG more and more in comparison to it, mainly because it seems to me to line up with both my eyes and team results more than TS%. ie. ORTG does a much better job of showing the gigantic difference between 07 Maggette and 07 Dirk in efficiency, or that Zbo made a huge jump in efficiency from his Portland/NY seasons to his Memphis ones, or that Dwight's efficiency is good, not great, something I think his 2011 season may have confirmed (they pushed up his volume and the Magic's ORTG fell off a cliff), it shows 2010 Ellis may have been one of the least valuable players in the league at 99 ORTG (below Brandon Jennings! I call it the MenJennings line!) - Ellis was like 8 points below league average but on one of the highest volumes. ORTG shows Nique, English and Gervin all about level and their ORTG and W results appear to lean to that side instead of TS%. It shows Shaq was much more efficient in 95 than in 93, and much more efficient in 00 than in 06. It also shows that there are very few stars who are actually below average in efficiency. Even Iverson was usually above. ie in his 01 season he had a 106 ORTG with 103 being league average I believe (I assuming they use the NBA team average as the average, I've heard 103 and 104 used as .54 TS% equivalents anyways). The only players on the team with higher ORTGs were Mutumbo and Todd MacCulloch. So while not a great efficient year, ORTG actually says he was a better option than McKie and etc., unlike 2010 Ellis.

[Doctor MJ]

I actually feel pretty bad about nominating Wilkins. But I looked at the list of candidates and it was just...blah. Feels like throwing darts up on the wall at this point.

I know how you feel. I've been using the nomination process to just get a feel for players. The final vote placement is what's permanent, so my priority is just making sure that my final votes are really coherent.

Now personally, the big issue for me is peak vs longevity...which there's never any perfect answer, so what can you do?

[Sedale Threatt]

And McAdoo with his ego and drugs wasn't -- at least for a significant part of his career?

I wouldn't dream of putting McAdoo this high, for any number of reasons.

[Laimbeer]

I can't see Nique or McAdoo here - not well rounded players and didn't breed team success.

Conversely, Hayes -- or Silent E, as Peter Vescey used to call him -- is one of the NBA's all-time horse's asses.

So was Barry.