#3 Highest Peak of All Time (Russell '65 wins)

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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#61 » by MisterWestside » Thu Aug 2, 2012 5:56 pm

I can see making broad-strokes comparisons for older players because we don't have the data, but why would this method be better than defensive RAPM for the last decade?


Because it's still not the definitive metric on defense, and video + box metrics are still essential to tell the whole story. Using '08 Chris Paul as an example, his RAPM ranking would rank him behind MANY point guards (including no-D Nate Robsinson) and among notorious non-defenders like Mo WIlliams - but several experts (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/4859/when-chris-paul-plays-defense) (including +/- proponents) would still rank him among the better defenders at the position that season even if his high steals totals overstate his defense.

As to the argument about '09 LeBron, it's tough to pick him over Russell. But you could make a case for him.
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#62 » by semi-sentient » Thu Aug 2, 2012 5:56 pm

colts18 wrote:Look at the Celtics/Lakers, they chose to guard Dwight 1 on 1 without help and guard the 3 point shooters. That was effective for them because their big men could guard Howard.


Not true. The Lakers were fronting Howard and making entry passes difficult, and when he did get it either Odom or Kobe would drop down to help. They simply did a good job of recovering on shooters and that's why the Lakers were able to shut them down.

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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#63 » by drza » Thu Aug 2, 2012 6:09 pm

MisterWestside wrote:
I can see making broad-strokes comparisons for older players because we don't have the data, but why would this method be better than defensive RAPM for the last decade?


Because it's still not the definitive metric on defense, and video + box metrics are still essential to tell the whole story. Using '08 Chris Paul as an example, his RAPM ranking would rank him behind MANY point guards (including no-D Nate Robsinson) and among notorious non-defenders like Mo WIlliams - but several experts (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/4859/when-chris-paul-plays-defense) (including +/- proponents) would still rank him among the better defenders at the position that season even if his high steals totals overstate his defense.

As to the argument about '09 LeBron, it's tough to pick him over Russell. But you could make a case for him.


I don't necessarily disagree with you on the usefulness of added data, but if you go back and look it wasn't video or box score stats that Colts18 was using. His metric was essentially to look at a team's defensive ratings, then attribute those values primarily to the team superstar that played the most minutes. That is almost by definition just an extremely dumbed down version of the data that APM gives you. I love the idea of adding more information to the table to make judgments. But in the post of mine that you quoted, that's not what was happening.
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#64 » by MisterWestside » Thu Aug 2, 2012 6:18 pm

drza wrote:
MisterWestside wrote:
I can see making broad-strokes comparisons for older players because we don't have the data, but why would this method be better than defensive RAPM for the last decade?


Because it's still not the definitive metric on defense, and video + box metrics are still essential to tell the whole story. Using '08 Chris Paul as an example, his RAPM ranking would rank him behind MANY point guards (including no-D Nate Robsinson) and among notorious non-defenders like Mo WIlliams - but several experts (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/4859/when-chris-paul-plays-defense) (including +/- proponents) would still rank him among the better defenders at the position that season even if his high steals totals overstate his defense.

As to the argument about '09 LeBron, it's tough to pick him over Russell. But you could make a case for him.


I don't disagree here, but if you go back and look it wasn't video or box score stats that Colts18 was using. His metric was essentially to look at a team's defensive ratings, then attribute those values primarily to the team superstar that played the most minutes. That is almost by definition just an extremely dumbed down version of the data that APM gives you. I love the idea of adding more information to the table to make judgments. But in the post of mine that you quoted, that's not what was happening.


Fair points. (As an aside, I'll also be a little bit fairer to Nate here - he can play solid defense when inspired, actually (although he was once benched for his lack of defense as a Knick). But not over the larger and still quick Paul).
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#65 » by colts18 » Thu Aug 2, 2012 6:19 pm

drza wrote:I don't disagree here, but if you go back and look it wasn't video or box score stats that Colts18 was using. His metric was essentially to look at a team's defensive ratings, then attribute those values primarily to the team superstar that played the most minutes. That is almost by definition just an extremely dumbed down version of the data that APM gives you. I love the idea of adding more information to the table to make judgments. But in the post of mine that you quoted, that's not what was happening.

You can use 82games counterpart PER and it will tell you almost the same exact thing. The inside the paint stats tell us a lot about the big men (Duncan, KG, Shaq, howard, etc.).
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#66 » by drza » Thu Aug 2, 2012 6:25 pm

MisterWestside wrote:
drza wrote:
MisterWestside wrote:Because it's still not the definitive metric on defense, and video + box metrics are still essential to tell the whole story. Using '08 Chris Paul as an example, his RAPM ranking would rank him behind MANY point guards (including no-D Nate Robsinson) and among notorious non-defenders like Mo WIlliams - but several experts (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/4859/when-chris-paul-plays-defense) (including +/- proponents) would still rank him among the better defenders at the position that season even if his high steals totals overstate his defense.

As to the argument about '09 LeBron, it's tough to pick him over Russell. But you could make a case for him.


I don't disagree here, but if you go back and look it wasn't video or box score stats that Colts18 was using. His metric was essentially to look at a team's defensive ratings, then attribute those values primarily to the team superstar that played the most minutes. That is almost by definition just an extremely dumbed down version of the data that APM gives you. I love the idea of adding more information to the table to make judgments. But in the post of mine that you quoted, that's not what was happening.


Fair points. (As an aside, I'll also be a little bit fairer to Nate here - he can play solid defense when inspired, actually (although he was once benched for his lack of defense as a Knick). But not over the larger and still quick Paul).


(I had gone back and added this to my original post, but since you responded so quick it might make more sense for me to make this a stand-alone response):

As for your Paul example, the natural counter-argument is that point guards usually just don't have much impact on a team's overall defense. Thus, him showing up with a weaker defensive RAPM could be considered an indication that his contributions just don't matter that much to a team's defense, moreso than an indication that other point guards are really better on defense. That essentially the differences between Paul and Mo Williams as defenders just fall into the noise as far as impact on team defense goes.
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#67 » by drza » Thu Aug 2, 2012 6:43 pm

colts18 wrote:
drza wrote:I don't disagree here, but if you go back and look it wasn't video or box score stats that Colts18 was using. His metric was essentially to look at a team's defensive ratings, then attribute those values primarily to the team superstar that played the most minutes. That is almost by definition just an extremely dumbed down version of the data that APM gives you. I love the idea of adding more information to the table to make judgments. But in the post of mine that you quoted, that's not what was happening.

You can use 82games counterpart PER and it will tell you almost the same exact thing. The inside the paint stats tell us a lot about the big men (Duncan, KG, Shaq, howard, etc.).


I definitely like incorporating video into evaluations as much as possible. When it comes to box score data for defensive impact, I think we have to be very careful to keep things in context and pay attention to what that data can realistically tell us. Counter-part PER can only approximate for us what a player's individual assignment contributed...what it can't tell us is who is responsible for it.

Take for example, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. In 2007 their opponent PER was in the 14 - 15 range. Suddenly, after 2008, their opponent PER are consistently in the 11 - 13 range (outside of 2010, where mysteriously both are back in the mid/upper 14s again). Are their opponent PER numbers an indication of their worth as defenders? Or is it more that they suddenly found themselves on a team with elite help defense, thus making their assignments produce less. And the 1 year in the current system when the elite help was injured, suddenly they reverted to their more natural defensive value.

Anyway, as I said, I think more information is better than less information. But the +/- stats by its very approach is a better way to look for impact (especially defensive impact) than the box score counterparts, so when the two disagree I definitely lean more towards the +/- results unless there is an excellent reason not to.
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#68 » by colts18 » Thu Aug 2, 2012 6:49 pm

drza wrote:I definitely like incorporating video into evaluations as much as possible. When it comes to box score data for defensive impact, I think we have to be very careful to keep things in context and pay attention to what that data can realistically tell us. Counter-part PER can only approximate for us what a player's individual assignment contributed...what it can't tell us is who is responsible for it.

Take for example, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. In 2007 their opponent PER was in the 14 - 15 range. Suddenly, after 2008, their opponent PER are consistently in the 11 - 13 range (outside of 2010, where mysteriously both are back in the mid/upper 14s again). Are their opponent PER numbers an indication of their worth as defenders? Or is it more that they suddenly found themselves on a team with elite help defense, thus making their assignments produce less. And the 1 year in the current system when the elite help was injured, suddenly they reverted to their more natural defensive value.

Anyway, as I said, I think more information is better than less information. But the +/- stats by its very approach is a better way to look for impact (especially defensive impact) than the box score counterparts, so when the two disagree I definitely lean more towards the +/- results unless there is an excellent reason not to.

Except that the box score stats I posted don't contradict the +/- stats. It shows LeBron, Duncan, KG, and 00 Shaq as elite while it has Kobe and CP3 at mediocre. It just adds more context to the +/- stats. Plus, the +/- stats are influenced too by your teammates. If you are on the court when a player happens to get hot, you get the credit for that even if you did nothing.
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#69 » by MisterWestside » Thu Aug 2, 2012 6:51 pm

As for your Paul example, the natural counter-argument is that point guards usually just don't have much impact on a team's overall defense. Thus, him showing up with a weaker defensive RAPM could be considered an indication that his contributions just don't matter that much to a team's defense, moreso than an indication that other point guards are really better on defense. That essentially the differences between Paul and Mo Williams as defenders just fall into the noise as far as impact on team defense goes.


Compared to the other positions? Certainly agreed.

But, I wouldn't use that fact to pooh-pooh Paul and put him and Williams into the same grouping, because they're not. At least with Paul, he can be disruptive to an opposing team's offense with his quick instincts and roaming. Williams doesn't provide that or alot of defense elsewhere in comparison, as Cavs and Clippers fans can attest to.

Plus, the +/- stats are influenced too by your teammates.


Even RAPM isn't impervious to this. Love it as a tool, but it's just that - one tool.
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#70 » by drza » Thu Aug 2, 2012 7:05 pm

Re: LeBron's 09 vs Bird's '86

I'm not going to get into the actual analysis of the season that deeply here. But what I will point out is that I think LeBron is starting at a bit of a disadvantage in this project by using 2009 just because the Cavs didn't win the title that year. In the issue of portability that we were discussing last thread I tended to side more with Larry, but here I think LeBron could potentially be catching a raw deal. The Magic in '09 WERE a terrible match-up for those Cavs, the way that they were built. And for those that put Larry's '86 over LeBron's '09 because the Celtics won while the Cavs lost, I'd ask you...if you replaced LeBron with Larry, would you expect that the Cavs would have won? Would he have made the offense better to enough of a degree that you think the Cavs could have basically out-gunned the Magic to get that series win? Because I'll be honest with you, I don't see that as the likely outcome. If Larry's on that team instead of LeBron, I think Larry's Cavs would struggle just as much with the Magic as LeBron's Cavs did.

On the other hand.

Whoever it was upthread that pointed out that the Magic as a team weren't really any more talented from top-to-bottom than the Cavs, also makes a good point. The '09 Magic were also a very flawed team that I never truly considered a contender, despite them making the Finals where they were summarily thumped by the Lakers. Much like the Cavs' amazing SRS and win percentage, the Magic's great defensive marks came in large part from taking advantage of weaker teams. Better teams could expose the Magic warts, just as better teams could expose the warts in the '09 and '10 Cavs.

So while I'm not convinced that '86 Larry Bird would have had much more success against the Magic than '09 LeBron...I think that 2003 Duncan would have. Or mid-90s Hakeem. Or mid-90s D-Rob. Or '03-04 KG. Or '70s Kareem. Or '67 Wilt. I think that any of those elite bigs could have kept the Cavs as an upper seed in '09 (though perhaps with fewer than 66 wins), but that they would have been much tougher outs in the playoffs. And I definitely think that such a team could have taken out those '09 Magic.

Now this takes us into more esoteric directions, somewhat analogous to the "portability" discussion...in fact, maybe it's because of those talks that my mind is moving in this direction. But it also ties hand-and-hand with the question of box score stats and their utility that I'm currently having with Colts...could a wing have essentially perfect box score stats (as LeBron essentially did in the '09 playoffs) and he still be not as valuable to a championship squad as a similar caliber big with excellent (but often poorly measured) defensive impact whose box score stats might not be as impressive?
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#71 » by ardee » Thu Aug 2, 2012 7:18 pm

drza wrote:Re: LeBron's 09 vs Bird's '86

I'm not going to get into the actual analysis of the season that deeply here. But what I will point out is that I think LeBron is starting at a bit of a disadvantage in this project by using 2009 just because the Cavs didn't win the title that year. In the issue of portability that we were discussing last thread I tended to side more with Larry, but here I think LeBron could potentially be catching a raw deal. The Magic in '09 WERE a terrible match-up for those Cavs, the way that they were built. And for those that put Larry's '86 over LeBron's '09 because the Celtics won while the Cavs lost, I'd ask you...if you replaced LeBron with Larry, would you expect that the Cavs would have won? Would he have made the offense better to enough of a degree that you think the Cavs could have basically out-gunned the Magic to get that series win? Because I'll be honest with you, I don't see that as the likely outcome. If Larry's on that team instead of LeBron, I think Larry's Cavs would struggle just as much with the Magic as LeBron's Cavs did.

On the other hand.

Whoever it was upthread that pointed out that the Magic as a team weren't really any more talented from top-to-bottom than the Cavs, also makes a good point. The '09 Magic were also a very flawed team that I never truly considered a contender, despite them making the Finals where they were summarily thumped by the Lakers. Much like the Cavs' amazing SRS and win percentage, the Magic's great defensive marks came in large part from taking advantage of weaker teams. Better teams could expose the Magic warts, just as better teams could expose the warts in the '09 and '10 Cavs.

So while I'm not convinced that '86 Larry Bird would have had much more success against the Magic than '09 LeBron...I think that 2003 Duncan would have. Or mid-90s Hakeem. Or mid-90s D-Rob. Or '03-04 KG. Or '70s Kareem. Or '67 Wilt. I think that any of those elite bigs could have kept the Cavs as an upper seed in '09 (though perhaps with fewer than 66 wins), but that they would have been much tougher outs in the playoffs. And I definitely think that such a team could have taken out those '09 Magic.

Now this takes us into more esoteric directions, somewhat analogous to the "portability" discussion...in fact, maybe it's because of those talks that my mind is moving in this direction. But it also ties hand-and-hand with the question of box score stats and their utility that I'm currently having with Colts...could a wing have essentially perfect box score stats (as LeBron essentially did in the '09 playoffs) and he still be not as valuable to a championship squad as a similar caliber big with excellent (but often poorly measured) defensive impact whose box score stats might not be as impressive?


I can't see them winning more than 48-50 games with any of those players. The reason the Cavs were such a good team in the regular season was LeBron's penetration leading to lots of jumpers and threes, which his supporting cast converted at a mostly good rate.

Other than '67 Wilt I don't think any of the players you mentioned was a good enough playmaker to keep creating those kind of opportunities.

Those teams were tailor-made for LeBron, I can't see anyone else doing well with them.
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#72 » by Lukeem » Thu Aug 2, 2012 7:19 pm

The mere fact that wilt chamberlain is still only be considered at #3 is a joke and a black mark on the credibility of this board

Throughout his prime wilt completely anchored any teams offense, defense and boards. Russell supporters and others talk like wilt had a dream team around him when yes he had good- great players around him in 67 to mention them in the same breath as the Celtic teams he had to unsurp is ridiculous.

Wilt is the greatest scorer of all time.

Wilt is the greatest rebounder of all time.

Wilt is the second greatest defender of all time to bill Russell someone wilt scored almost 30ppg vs with ridiculous efficiency.

Wilt also became the greatest distributing big man of all time ( not the best passer, but factoring in the attention he demanded of entire defenses even vs Boston )

Vote Wilt
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#73 » by ardee » Thu Aug 2, 2012 7:34 pm

Lukeem wrote:The mere fact that wilt chamberlain is still only be considered at #3 is a joke and a black mark on the credibility of this board

Throughout his prime wilt completely anchored any teams offense, defense and boards. Russell supporters and others talk like wilt had a dream team around him when yes he had good- great players around him in 67 to mention them in the same breath as the Celtic teams he had to unsurp is ridiculous.

Wilt is the greatest scorer of all time.

Wilt is the greatest rebounder of all time.

Wilt is the second greatest defender of all time to bill Russell someone wilt scored almost 30ppg vs with ridiculous efficiency.

Wilt also became the greatest distributing big man of all time ( not the best passer, but factoring in the attention he demanded of entire defenses even vs Boston )

Vote Wilt


You have to be on the voters' list to vote... Glad to see someone who's also a Wilt fan, I'd recommend you participate in the discussion and keep contributing, with the mods perhaps allowing you to vote in future.

Wilt was nowhere near Russell's defensive impact though.
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#74 » by toodles23 » Thu Aug 2, 2012 7:40 pm

ardee wrote:2009, quite handily, at least for me.

The impact he had on that 2009 team is quite shocking, to be honest. Just a monstrous regular season, the way he was literally winning game after game by himself. And he was also second in Defensive Player of the Year voting... He looked to be at Pippen-level defensively, at times.

Playoffs were even better, and even though people like to poke at his Orlando performances, really, how can you find fault with a 39-8-8 series against the league's no. 1 defense?


Is there a big difference from a statistical point of view when the two seasons are compared? Let's say if you were making a case somewhat for the '12 season, what arguments would you be using? I'm very curious because I'm in big doubt about it.[/quote]

Well, for the '12 season, I would say he was more versatile. He couldn't get to the rim literally at will like he did in 2009, but he was stronger, bigger and had a legit back to the basket game. His jumper was MUCH improved, as was his efficiency.

I'd say defense is about a wash, maybe slight edge to 2012. I still think his defense gets slightly overrated (Durant 31 ppg on 65% TS against him), but he's definitely among the top three wings in the league in that area.

Main reason I rank 2009 over 2012 is because the impact is clearly visible. In 2009 he took a team with ONE other player who had a PER over 15 to a 112.4 ORtg.

In 2012 his team had another superstar wing, an All Star post option, and three good to very good shooters (Battier, Miller and Chalmers), and they yet finished with only a 106.6 ORtg. Now I know it's not the ideal team fit-wise (the LeBron-Wade dynamic has already been discussed to death), but the fact remains that with such a massive talent gap shouldn't we be seeing something historic?

As for the Playoffs, I don't think anyone can argue with a 37 PER. Nearly .400 WS/48? I don't like to rely so much on advanced stats, but will we ever see something like that again? The pure domination was just mind-boggling.

I mean seriously, if he doesn't run into a team with a big man whom his team can't handle, that's the GOAT season right there.

As it is, the '09 season probably be about 6-7 on my list.[/quote]
Lebron's J was stronger in '09 than it was this year. In the postseason, he shot 44% from 10-15, 48% from 16-23 and 33% on threes, which is a lot better than what he did in the '12 postseason.
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#75 » by Lukeem » Thu Aug 2, 2012 7:52 pm

Haha my bad

Apologies

Russel was a better defender but I believe the gap is nowhere near as large as most will admitt. Russell was a perfect piece in a perfect system and symbolized as well as anchored a great team defense. Again I reiterate that I believe Russell was the better defender before posters start misreading and leading this discussion somewhere far away from the point.

But wilt did single handled dramatically change teams offensive approach while being able to stay in the game and dominate both ends and the boards. Something that is greatly over looked with wilt is his work ethic since his demeanor suggests otherwise, but this is a man that carried dumbells in suitcases so he could work out on the road. At the same time he greatly exagerated stories of his drinking and sleeping around according to teammates in order to promote his night club. Those that have not really read up on wilt and take his persona at face value have not scratched the surface of easily one of if not the greatest athlete of all time
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#76 » by lorak » Thu Aug 2, 2012 8:04 pm

drza wrote:
DavidStern wrote:
drza wrote:Short answer (time crunch at the moment): I think Russell's individual defensive impact at his peak is as large as any 2-way impact for any player ever, including Jordan and Shaq.



But don't you think Russell's impact was done in weaker era? I mean, +10 SRS impact in 1962 probably isn't better than +8 SRS in 1992.


The question of how to handle era is a difficult one. I guess here, this is the way I think of it (with acknowledgment to Doc MJ and others who made similar arguments in the top-100 project):

While the game has changed a lot in the last 50 years, Russell's body type/athleticism/defensive abilities would seem translatable. Two of his "descendants" in this respect, Olajuwon and Garnett, have demonstrated the ability to dominate the modern NBA at the defensive end. In an attempt to quantify it...

Since Garnett has been in Boston he has finished in the top-5 in yearly RAPM in every season except for 2010 (knee), based in large part on his defensive impact. In the 4-year APM study from 2008 - 2011, Garnett also finished in the top-5 overall and #1 on defense with a defensive APM mark of +6.4. That +6.4 on defense alone would have placed him #8 in the league for both offense and defense combined, and not that far behind #1 LeBron (+10.2). Mind you, this is mid-30s Garnett playing in more of a "Russell-like" role than he was in his prime.

But, I'm very confident that peak Bill Russell was a dramatically better defender and rebounder than 30-something Garnett. Thus, I don't find it a stretch at all that a peak Russell over the last 5 years could have been topping the RAPM lists purely on defense alone, including the 2009 peak for LeBron that will certainly finish in the top-10 of this project.


Overall RAPM numbers include offense, where KG was much, much better than Russell. But of course you know that.
"+6.4 on defense alone" is good point, but it's still "only" top 10 overall during given season. Of course prime Russell was probably better than 30 year old KG, but 1) is it really possible to be significant better in modern basketball on defense than 08-09 (healthy) KG? 2) 60s Russell's impact on defense was higher than 08 KG, but here comes era differences - and if we adjust for it there's no way Russell peak is top 5 GOAT.
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#77 » by drza » Thu Aug 2, 2012 8:06 pm

ardee wrote:
drza wrote:So while I'm not convinced that '86 Larry Bird would have had much more success against the Magic than '09 LeBron...I think that 2003 Duncan would have. Or mid-90s Hakeem. Or mid-90s D-Rob. Or '03-04 KG. Or '70s Kareem. Or '67 Wilt. I think that any of those elite bigs could have kept the Cavs as an upper seed in '09 (though perhaps with fewer than 66 wins), but that they would have been much tougher outs in the playoffs. And I definitely think that such a team could have taken out those '09 Magic.


I can't see them winning more than 48-50 games with any of those players. The reason the Cavs were such a good team in the regular season was LeBron's penetration leading to lots of jumpers and threes, which his supporting cast converted at a mostly good rate.

Other than '67 Wilt I don't think any of the players you mentioned was a good enough playmaker to keep creating those kind of opportunities.

Those teams were tailor-made for LeBron, I can't see anyone else doing well with them.


Is that a realistic assessment, though? Let's play the thought experiment through.

The '09 Cavs started Mo Williams, Delonte West, LeBron, Ilgauskas, and another defensive big (Varejao/old Wallace).

The '03 Spurs started young Parker, Stephen Jackson, Bowen, Duncan, and another defensive big (old Robinson)

Offensively, are the potentials for those units really that different? In fact, couldn't you argue that the backcourt of Mo/West was just as offensively talented in '09 as Parker/Jackson was in '03? If you swapped out LeBron and Ilgauskas for Duncan and Bowen, wouldn't you expect the offense of Mo/West/Bowen/Duncan/Varejao to produce on a similar level to the 2003 Spurs' offense? And wouldn't the new Cavs' defense also look a lot like the '03 Spurs' defense? Duncan would be drawing defensive attention in '09 just like he did in '03, opening up space with his post-up game for Mo and West to operate. The '03 Spurs won "only" 60 games instead of 66, but I don't see any way the Duncan-Cavs win only 48 - 50 games...I'd be interested in hearing your logic for that.

Similarly, if you swapped out LeBron/Ilgauskas for KG and 27 minutes of 2005 Wally...wouldn't the new Cavs' offense look a lot like the '03/'05 Wolves? Again, Mo Williams/Delonte is an offensive upgrade from Hudson/Peeler in '03 or Hudson/Spree in '05, and peak KG led those offenses to top-5 in the NBA caliber. KG would run the heck out of the pick-and-roll/pop with Mo, just as he did with Hudson, and from his office in the high-post/elbow he could set up easy shots for Wally/Delonte or dive-downs for Varejao just as he always did with Wally/Peeler or (later) Perkins. Then, on defense, a frontline of KG/Varejao with Delonte as the best perimeter defender compares favorably with the '08 frontline of KG/Perkins with young Rondo as the best perimeter defender. The '03 Wolves with a similar offense but no defensive support finished with 51 wins, and of course the '08 Celtics with a similar defense but better offensive pieces finished with 66 wins. I don't see how the KG Cavs aren't at least in the upper 50s, battling for an upper seed.

You could play out the same scenario with Hakeem (who proved he could win a title at his peak with solid role players like the Cavs had) or Kareem (whose scoring/passing ability should have allowed him to be an offensive hub to lead those players as well) or Wilt or whoever. I just don't see any way those bigs at their peaks are leading that Cavs team to only 48 - 50 wins. LeBron was doing huge heavy lifting with that team, but there were solid role players on that team that could have been useful to other super-duper-stars just like they were for LeBron.
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#78 » by drza » Thu Aug 2, 2012 8:23 pm

DavidStern wrote:
drza wrote:
DavidStern wrote:But don't you think Russell's impact was done in weaker era? I mean, +10 SRS impact in 1962 probably isn't better than +8 SRS in 1992.


The question of how to handle era is a difficult one. I guess here, this is the way I think of it (with acknowledgment to Doc MJ and others who made similar arguments in the top-100 project):

While the game has changed a lot in the last 50 years, Russell's body type/athleticism/defensive abilities would seem translatable. Two of his "descendants" in this respect, Olajuwon and Garnett, have demonstrated the ability to dominate the modern NBA at the defensive end. In an attempt to quantify it...

Since Garnett has been in Boston he has finished in the top-5 in yearly RAPM in every season except for 2010 (knee), based in large part on his defensive impact. In the 4-year APM study from 2008 - 2011, Garnett also finished in the top-5 overall and #1 on defense with a defensive APM mark of +6.4. That +6.4 on defense alone would have placed him #8 in the league for both offense and defense combined, and not that far behind #1 LeBron (+10.2). Mind you, this is mid-30s Garnett playing in more of a "Russell-like" role than he was in his prime.

But, I'm very confident that peak Bill Russell was a dramatically better defender and rebounder than 30-something Garnett. Thus, I don't find it a stretch at all that a peak Russell over the last 5 years could have been topping the RAPM lists purely on defense alone, including the 2009 peak for LeBron that will certainly finish in the top-10 of this project.


Overall RAPM numbers include offense, where KG was much, much better than Russell. But of course you know that.
"+6.4 on defense alone" is good point, but it's still "only" top 10 overall during given season. Of course prime Russell was probably better than 30 year old KG, but 1) is it really possible to be significant better in modern basketball on defense than 08-09 (healthy) KG? 2) 60s Russell's impact on defense was higher than 08 KG, but here comes era differences - and if we adjust for it there's no way Russell peak is top 5 GOAT.


That's a fair opinion, but in the end I don't see where you support it with anything else. A few things of note just in your current response:

*I wasn't talking 30 year old KG...I'm talking 32 - 35 year old KG. Even if we put some sort of ceiling on what a player's defensive impact can be in modern days, Russell was WAY, WAY better as a rebounder and shotblocker at his peak than KG was in his 30s. Those are tangible contributions, and rebounding in particular is still a premium commodity these days. If you did nothing but combine '08 - '11 KG's horizontal defense/middle-linebacker ability with shot-blocking/rebounding that was better than Dwight Howard's you would be talking about a major upgrade.

*As you allude to, KG's +/- scores on DEFENSE ALONE were top-10 and within shouting distance of LeBron's. Give that a major upgrade, as pointed out in the previous bullet, and I could easily see that +6.4 defensive impact moving into the 9 - 10 range. Yes, even in the modern game.

*But the thing about modernizing Russell's game that you don't do, is that you don't modernize his offense. A player with that type of length, speed, IQ and passing ability is much better suited to the modern offensive game than the 50s/60s. As such, I don't see how we can downgrade Russell's defensive impact (from what...infinite? down to "merely" +10 range) without accounting for the fact that he'd very likely be a plus offensive player if he were to have come along in this era.

We can only go so far in our era judgments, and each of us has to play out in our own minds what we think a player would or wouldn't be able to do in a different era. I don't try to say that Russell or Wilt would average anywhere near 25 rebounds or be consistently getting 10+ blocks per game if they played in this era...but I do think that their physical ability and basketball instincts would have allowed them to make a similar impact in this era as they did in their own.
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#79 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Aug 2, 2012 9:41 pm

Lukeem wrote:Haha my bad

Apologies

Russel was a better defender but I believe the gap is nowhere near as large as most will admitt. Russell was a perfect piece in a perfect system and symbolized as well as anchored a great team defense. Again I reiterate that I believe Russell was the better defender before posters start misreading and leading this discussion somewhere far away from the point.


The key problem with what you're arguing here is that Russell WAS the system. Credit Red for seeing Russell's potential, and giving the team defense over to it, but the defense was largely the same as what Russell's college team did once they got Russell. It seems it was pretty clear for Russell's coaches once they got over the fact that Russell did things you weren't supposed to do - Russell's talent and instincts made it clear that you let him do his thing, and you just used the other pieces as satellites.

Lukeem wrote:But wilt did single handled dramatically change teams offensive approach while being able to stay in the game and dominate both ends and the boards. Something that is greatly over looked with wilt is his work ethic since his demeanor suggests otherwise, but this is a man that carried dumbells in suitcases so he could work out on the road. At the same time he greatly exagerated stories of his drinking and sleeping around according to teammates in order to promote his night club. Those that have not really read up on wilt and take his persona at face value have not scratched the surface of easily one of if not the greatest athlete of all time


Various things here:

-Wilt's stamina was certainly a huge positive, although it is pretty clear that coaches wanted him to play less simply because they could see when he became tired and they could see when he took possessions off.

-To your notion of all around domination, I'd encourage you to read a lot more on the subject on this forum, particularly this and past projects. I understand that some of the statements you're seeing in this thread are so far away from what you expect to find in casual basketball conversation that you wonder if people here are crazy, but it's pretty much a given that there's a ton of research that has been done here, both quantitative and qualitative, that you've never seen before. The gist:

Wilt as a scorer typically didn't have great impact, simply because the offense became very predictable and his teammates became passive. It's possible that in the modern era this wouldn't be nearly as big of a problem, but it is really not disputable that if you think that Wilt scoring 50 PPG meant that the defenses he went up against were getting destroyed you are wrong.

Wilt as a defender sometimes had very strong impact, and other times he coasted. It is unfortunate that unlike Russell who had a natural instinct for how to make the most impact with his abilities, Wilt tended to gravitate more toward what he thought would give him the most attention, which is actually pretty common for athletes (Russell is the abnormal one on this front).

However when we talk about Wilt playing great defense, it's important to realize that these guys had two very different bodies, and so when people talking about Wilt playing a defensive role that approximated Russell in certain years, you need to understand that that language is being used for the benefit of people who wouldn't have understood the details. The reality is that while Wilt was stronger and could reach a higher max height, he was never as agile as Russell and he could never read the court like Russell. While Wilt could be one hell of a deterrent to anyone trying to get a shot close to the net, he was not able to cover the large swaths of court space Russell was.

-Re: work ethic, demeanor, lying about nightlife. You need to put these things together to get a holistic picture of the man. Fundamentally, Wilt cared about what the public thought of him excessively, and so he would do things that he thought would add to his legend. He lifted weights a ton, because he wanted to emphasize how strong he was, but basketball-wise, he was already stronger than anyone else so there were definitely far better things he could have done with his time.

Then there's things like his chase of high FG% & assists after he'd become known already as the volume scoring key. In theory these are wonderful things, but when you all but refuse to shoot against Nate Thurmond because you don't want to risk lowering your FG%, and when you avoid making passes to players who drive because even if they score you won't get credited with an assist, you chip away substantially at your impact.

Most tragically in my mind, you have him so badly not wanting to be seen as a brute, that he'd focus on adding finesse to his game, even when that was clearly not good for his team. Wilt had a beautiful looking finger roll that was far more likely to miss than a typical lay up. He used Globetrotter like stuff moving the ball all around theoretically to confuse his man, but in reality he just made it easier for another defender to steal the ball. If he had not been so insecure, and perhaps if he had seen winning at basketball as something more important than he did, he would not have been doing these things.

But of course, basketball in the end, isn't that important. It is just a game, and especially back then, it was a very minor sport compared to today and Wilt understandably saw himself as the greatest physical specimen in humanity. In some ways it's quite understandable why Wilt would have priorities very different from what we basketball nuts would have liked, but here we are, judging basketball, and so it matters not whether he slept with more women than Genghis Kahn or whether he was the best beach volleyball player in the world, or whether he could lift 1000 lbs in this context.
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Re: #3 Highest Peak of All Time (ends Fri 11:49 PM Pacific) 

Post#80 » by ElGee » Thu Aug 2, 2012 9:50 pm

Doc - while you're here, thoughts on Magic's peak in relation to what we talked about with LeBron, Nash, or any ball-dominant PG having to replace other ball-dominant PG's...Sell me on his peak, I'm struggling with it right now.
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