Still leaning Robinson, with K Malone a possibility (there are others who I probably could be persuaded for, but not people who have had traction so far so whilst that wouldn't stop me voting for them I want to focus/debate/learn more on those who are presently in the frame.
First some boxscore metrics for the Malones and Robinson
RS PeakPeak PER - Moses: 26.77 (25 players have posted better seasons, 84 NBA player-seasons better); K Malone (12 players, 32 NBA seasons better) Robinson 30.66 (3 players have posted better seasons, 11 player season better)
Peak WS/48: Moses: .2480 (28 players, 84 seasons); K Malone .2676 (17 players, 40 seasons); Robinson .2960 (4 players, 11 seasons)
Peak WARP: Moses: 21.9; K Malone 20.5; Robinson 27.3
xRAPM peak: Moses: Not Available; K Malone 5.3 (twice); Robinson 9.3
Okay but we kinda saw this coming how about career wise and playoff wise.
Career (RS) NumbersFor reference, career (RS) minutes, M Malone 49444 (45071 NBA); K Malone 54852; Robinson 34271
Career WARP: Moses (incomplete, WARP era starting '79-'80 season, missing 8003 NBA minutes, 12376 total minutes, or near enough exactly a quarter of his career) 189; K Malone 285; D Robinson 247;
Career WS - Moses: (NBA and ABA combined) 179.15 (13th on NBA/ABA comb) ; K Malone: 234.63 (3rd on combined); Robinson (178.67 (14 on combined)
Karl clearly comes out top in total productivity, with Robinson and Moses approximately tied. Robinson is clearly the most productive per minute.
Playoff Career numbers - Minutes - Moses: 4031 (3796 NBA); K Malone: 7907; D Robinson: 4221
Win Shares - Moses: 14.8; K Malone 23; Robinson 17.5
Playoff Career WS/48 - Moses: .176 ; K Malone: .140 ; Robinson - .199
Playoff Career PER - Moses: 21.57 ; K Malone 21.12 ; Robinson 23.02
there aren't EWA numbers out there and with different replacement levels for different positions, and those levels not necessarily worked out to be optimal across all eras it would be hard to confident but a rough approximate (we'll set all at replacment level 11, this may be being generous to Karl) methodology here
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/s ... iem-090325 , plus by reverse engineering EWA from VA, we find the VA÷30= EWA )
M Malone: 21.19784577 EWA; K Malone 39.81036816 EWA; Robinson 25.242 EWA
or if you think we should keep the position adjustments (in replacement level) in the Hollinger article
M Malone: 22.00003483 EWA; K Malone 37.84345274 EWA; Robinson 26.082 EWA
it doesn't really change the big picture.
By the metrics (used here) Robinson has the best peak, whilst Karl has the longevity. Karl has the most playoff minutes a tribute to his consistency in putting teams in a position to compete. But he has the lowest per minute productivity, which depending on your prefered metric may be close to Moses. Robinson, despite an injury reduced "strong-prime" (his prime probably goes beyond the injury, hence the made up term), has an advantage in per-minute productivity which whilst not huge is not insignificant.
Of course playoff metrics analysis is imperfect because (general metrics imperfections aside) it can be difficult for them to factor in quality of competition -iirc PER just doesn't.
I'm still open to discussion on Robinson's defense (his team's D and his role in any percieved decline) in the playoffs and versus good teams (and in the playoffs versus good teams, though sample sizes might be an issue if looking only at "strong-prime"). So I'm not closed to the possibility of a Karl Malone vote. However for now pencil me in as voting ...
David Robinson