All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread

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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#61 » by bondom34 » Wed Apr 15, 2015 6:34 pm

JLei wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Posting this everywhere relevant: Zach Lowe's awards ballots with reasoning. Great place to start your thinking.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-a ... ndividual/


http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-awards-ballot-part-2-putting-in-a-team-effort/

And here's where I think the baby he just had has made him miss a ton of the season and you may need to discount some of his opinions to what he saw earlier in the season.

Jimmy Butler 1st team all defense is absolutely egregious.

That is 100% a reputation pick and not reflective of what has happened this season. As he has taken more offensive load he became a much less effective defender, RPM has him as a net negative this year. And Jimmy personally has said so himself that he has not been a good defender this year.

I'm fine with him 3rd team all-NBA because of his offensive improvement but 1st team defense is ridiculous.

And I think Zach is the best writer in the business.

I didn't know he had a kid, and was confused as to Butler getting that nod. He was great early, but dropped off a ton.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#62 » by Dr Spaceman » Wed Apr 15, 2015 6:40 pm

fpliii wrote:4) Harden - Has mastered the corner three, in terms of creating for himself and others. That being said, I don't know if I can slot him above the other three. I'm always weary of one-man carry jobs. Might reassess in the playoffs.


Is it because you're worried about him scaling/portability? Or what?

I ask because I'm similarly leery of Harden and I think at this point it's narrative that has people putting him in the stratosphere. Incidentally, as I was writing today, I realized that I don't really have a single good reason to put Harden ahead of Paul. Like, I sat there and couldn't really think of a single satisfactory justification for it. I think right now Curry is my 1 followed by Paul at 2, still working on the rest. I'm not actually convinced that Chris Paul isn't the best player in the league at this point, all told.

But yeah, Harden's brilliant but he's leading a mediocre offense and that team is winning in no small part because their defense is great. Little shades of Rose 2011 maybe? Anyway, I don't think he should be given a boost just because he doesn't have a ton of supporting offensive talent.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#63 » by JLei » Wed Apr 15, 2015 7:00 pm

bondom34 wrote:
JLei wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Posting this everywhere relevant: Zach Lowe's awards ballots with reasoning. Great place to start your thinking.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-a ... ndividual/


http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-awards-ballot-part-2-putting-in-a-team-effort/

And here's where I think the baby he just had has made him miss a ton of the season and you may need to discount some of his opinions to what he saw earlier in the season.

Jimmy Butler 1st team all defense is absolutely egregious.

That is 100% a reputation pick and not reflective of what has happened this season. As he has taken more offensive load he became a much less effective defender, RPM has him as a net negative this year. And Jimmy personally has said so himself that he has not been a good defender this year.

I'm fine with him 3rd team all-NBA because of his offensive improvement but 1st team defense is ridiculous.

And I think Zach is the best writer in the business.

I didn't know he had a kid, and was confused as to Butler getting that nod. He was great early, but dropped off a ton.


Yah just-before All-star break until about 2 weeks ago he stopped writing all together and stopped being on Simmons podcast.

But obviously you are pretty busy with the baby leading up to the birth as well.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#64 » by ceiling raiser » Wed Apr 15, 2015 7:06 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
fpliii wrote:4) Harden - Has mastered the corner three, in terms of creating for himself and others. That being said, I don't know if I can slot him above the other three. I'm always weary of one-man carry jobs. Might reassess in the playoffs.


Is it because you're worried about him scaling/portability? Or what?

I ask because I'm similarly leery of Harden and I think at this point it's narrative that has people putting him in the stratosphere. Incidentally, as I was writing today, I realized that I don't really have a single good reason to put Harden ahead of Paul. Like, I sat there and couldn't really think of a single satisfactory justification for it. I think right now Curry is my 1 followed by Paul at 2, still working on the rest. I'm not actually convinced that Chris Paul isn't the best player in the league at this point, all told.

But yeah, Harden's brilliant but he's leading a mediocre offense and that team is winning in no small part because their defense is great. Little shades of Rose 2011 maybe? Anyway, I don't think he should be given a boost just because he doesn't have a ton of supporting offensive talent.

Yes, scaling and portability. Moving a team from -3 -> +3 is easier than moving a team from +1 -> +7 (Doc's touched on this a few times). Not all HCO translates equally well to the playoffs against good defenses, and transition/semi-transition opportunities are reduced.

It's similar to Rose (or even Iverson), but I don't think he looked *as* elite as Harden in offensive RAPM (he was very solid in xRAPM: http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ratings/2011.html). Though the differences here might come back to scalability as well (15 HOU +3.54 SRS, 11 CHI 6.53 SRS, PHI +3.63 SRS...maybe Iverson doesn't work here I guess). Part of this might also be Harden being credited with a ton more on defense in NPI (maybe this won't be the case in J.E.'s multiyear that he said he'll share after the playoffs).
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#65 » by MO12msu » Wed Apr 15, 2015 7:21 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
Is it because you're worried about him scaling/portability? Or what?

I ask because I'm similarly leery of Harden and I think at this point it's narrative that has people putting him in the stratosphere. Incidentally, as I was writing today, I realized that I don't really have a single good reason to put Harden ahead of Paul. Like, I sat there and couldn't really think of a single satisfactory justification for it. I think right now Curry is my 1 followed by Paul at 2, still working on the rest. I'm not actually convinced that Chris Paul isn't the best player in the league at this point, all told.

But yeah, Harden's brilliant but he's leading a mediocre offense and that team is winning in no small part because their defense is great. Little shades of Rose 2011 maybe? Anyway, I don't think he should be given a boost just because he doesn't have a ton of supporting offensive talent.

I'm very skeptical about Harden's playoffs prospects, but how can it be narrative that's putting Harden in the top 2? I feel like people are penalizing Harden for last year's playoff performance and his style of play, but aren't we discussing player of the year? So far this year Harden has been as good as anybody, and that's not really narrative based, RAPM and most every other advanced boxscore stat has him as a top 2-3 player in the league.

I love CP3, but the most obvious thing to me that has separated Harden and Curry from Paul this year is that Curry and Harden carry the same consistency game to game as Paul, while also being able to go up to a level that CP doesn't reach nearly as much anymore.

And I've never been one to criticize great offensive players for mediocre overall team offense as long as that player is doing his thing for the team. The rockets are at 110.4 ORTG with Harden on the court and they're a 106.9 ORTG team overall. That's making a solid offense into a very good one, no? Also, they're 12th in offensive efficiency and 10th in defensive efficiency, it seems like they're winning games because they're pretty solid on both sides of the ball(not a strong defense carrying a terrible offense) and I'm pretty sure they're a team that's performed well in close games(undefeated in OT this year).

So I wouldn't really compare this at all to Rose, who didn't really have the production to back up the narrative going his way.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#66 » by NinjaSheppard » Wed Apr 15, 2015 7:52 pm

I don't like that logic.

You are defining consistency essentially by how aggressive they are with their shooting which isn't fair because Chris Paul carries a significantly heavier defensive load than any of those guys. Even LeBron for example has JR Smith guarding KD for significant portions of the game when OKC/Cleveland matched up. Houston has built a team to ensure that Harden never has to guard a real threat. The one time you ask Harden to chase a guy around screens and run them off the three point line (JJ Redick) like Paul has to do every night he plays Curry/Lillard/etc and he gets so lost that the Rockets scheme just falls apart. Its a lot easier to put your shots up when you don't have to guard Curry for 35 minutes a night and have discipline on every play.

The other thing is that with the guys Paul has on his team it is in his best interest to ensure that they all get their touches from their favorite spots. If he became more and more aggressive Blake would end up becoming a two point shooting 2015 Kevin Love essentially. To get Blake to excel he has to give him the ball, he can't just re-set the play every time Blake slips a screen, he has to give up the ball to Blake on the elbow and in transition to maximize Blake's talents. Feeding JJ as he comes off screens, giving Barnes the ball in transition so he can baseball pass it to someone for an easy bucket, letting Crawford iso so he will be engaged on the other end are all aspects of being a court general that matter and that have resulted in the best offense in the league. The Clippers offense isn't your San Antonio/Atlanta space everything out and the other team can't stop us. Everyone is flawed to an extent (bigs can't shoot, Barnes is limited, JJ isn't really a creator even though I think he is amazing) and they sacrifice what should be their biggest strength (a team with Blake/DJ/Barnes should be a juggernaut on the offensive glass but that isn't how Doc plays) and yet are still the best offense in the league.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#67 » by MO12msu » Wed Apr 15, 2015 8:20 pm

NinjaSheppard wrote:I don't like that logic.

You are defining consistency essentially by how aggressive they are with their shooting which isn't fair because Chris Paul carries a significantly heavier defensive load than any of those guys.

I think you misunderstood me because I never once mentioned anything about shooting in my post. I actually said all three guys were consistent. A big part of what makes CP3 so damn good is how he is consistently great game to game and finds ways to impact games outside of just scoring. It reminds me of Duncan, must be something about Wake Forest...

Curry brings his gravity, otherworldly shooting, and slick passing as well as solid defense game to game. Harden is in constant attack mode, forces opposing teams into foul trouble or giving up easy layups has as much offensive attention on him as anybody in the league, and is a great passer as well. Those were just short summaries but my point is that both those guys do those things consistently, just like you listed many of the things Paul has to do consistently.

Anyways, my main point wasn't that Chris Paul was inconsistent or not aggressive enough scoring. It was that I believe that Harden and Curry have also consistently brought strong impact as well, but they've also been able to take it up a notch in games a few more times in my opinion, like that extra gear. Not a huge fan of GameScore, but if you look at games with GameScore above 30, Harden has 17, Curry has 12 and Paul only has 4. Just trying to illustrate my point which is that those guys have an extra gear that I think Paul doesn't reach as much anymore mostly due to his age.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#68 » by Dr Spaceman » Wed Apr 15, 2015 8:33 pm

MO12msu wrote:
NinjaSheppard wrote:I don't like that logic.

You are defining consistency essentially by how aggressive they are with their shooting which isn't fair because Chris Paul carries a significantly heavier defensive load than any of those guys.

I think you misunderstood me because I never once mentioned anything about shooting in my post. I actually said all three guys were consistent. A big part of what makes CP3 so damn good is how he is consistently great game to game and finds ways to impact games outside of just scoring. It reminds me of Duncan, must be something about Wake Forest...

Curry brings his gravity, otherworldly shooting, and slick passing as well as solid defense game to game. Harden is in constant attack mode, forces opposing teams into foul trouble or giving up easy layups has as much offensive attention on him as anybody in the league, and is a great passer as well. Those were just short summaries but my point is that both those guys do those things consistently, just like you listed many of the things Paul has to do consistently.

Anyways, my main point wasn't that Chris Paul was inconsistent or not aggressive enough scoring. It was that I believe that Harden and Curry have also consistently brought strong impact as well, but they've also been able to take it up a notch in games a few more times in my opinion, like that extra gear. Not a huge fan of GameScore, but if you look at games with GameScore above 30, Harden has 17, Curry has 12 and Paul only has 4. Just trying to illustrate my point which is that those guys have an extra gear that I think Paul doesn't reach as much anymore mostly due to his age.


Due to his age of 29?

You acknowledge that Paul does tons of things not captured in the box score, but then use the box score (gamescore) to clinch your point. That's not good logic.

I don't think "stepping up" is good criteria when that depends so heavily on scoring and Paul doesn't do much of that. Hardens role is to attack first and always and Curry is a top 3 scorer as well. Obviously Paul isn't that, but he does other things way better.

FWIW, I rate CP higher than these two on D.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#69 » by MO12msu » Wed Apr 15, 2015 8:53 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
Due to his age of 29?

You acknowledge that Paul does tons of things not captured in the box score, but then use the box score (gamescore) to clinch your point. That's not good logic.

I don't think "stepping up" is good criteria when that depends so heavily on scoring and Paul doesn't do much of that. Hardens role is to attack first and always and Curry is a top 3 scorer as well. Obviously Paul isn't that, but he does other things way better.

FWIW, I rate CP higher than these two on D.

Yes due to his age of 29, which many would consider the back end of people's primes. I don't think it's really debatable to say that he's lost a step and less in attack mode all the time compared to his early LAC years.

I used Gamescore to help illustrate the point I was making, not prove it. I stated as much beforehand.

You guys continue to say that I am only talking about pure scoring when I have never stated that as the case. All three are consistent, I just believe that there have been more times where Harden and Curry have been extra extraordinary(however we want to measure it) compared to Paul.

I agree Paul is the best defender, but I also believe that he started off the season coasting a little bit on that end(until about late Jan-early Dec) and I don't think the gap is large enough for me to put him over Curry and Harden.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#70 » by kaiballz » Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:01 am

1) curry
2) harden
3) paul
4) lebron
5) davis
6) westbrook
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#71 » by SideshowBob » Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:34 am

I'll have some free time tomorrow and Friday so I'll update and post In/Out data for GSW, Houston, LAC, Cleveland, OKC, etc. this weekend.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#72 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Apr 16, 2015 3:49 am

lorak wrote:
fpliii wrote:5) I'd love to put Davis here, but I'm still concerned that his defense isn't translating well into RAPM.


Well, he ranks very high in RPM and also in EvanZ's NPI RAPM. So while I see why people have doubts about his D, I'm not sure he is really that bad as some thinks ;)


Yeah, it seems to me like the RAPM-based criticism time is over now. Davis scored higher than LeBron in NPI RAPM this season with the Defensive number stronger than the Offensive side. He shouldn't win DPOY, but there's literally nothing fundamentally sketchy about him that I see.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#73 » by CBA » Thu Apr 16, 2015 5:07 pm

Top 5 RPM (ESPN):
Curry 8.87
Leonard 8.35
Harden 8.30
James 7.66
Davis 7.52

Top 5 RAPM (EvanZ):
Harden 10.06
Green 8.38
Curry 8.35
Ginobli 8.22
Morrow 7.97
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#74 » by Dr Spaceman » Thu Apr 16, 2015 6:12 pm

So my current top 6:

1. Curry - insane lift to an insane team. Pretty easy choice for me.
2. Paul - He has a very, very good case for being the league's best player, on balance, this season. I'm irritated that either him or the Spurs are going to be knocked out in round 1, but c'est la vie. Paul is the Clippers best offensive and defensive player, and they're just better than the Rockets.
3. Harden - can't drop him any lower than this right now, but playoffs could change that. He's been maybe the best offensive player in the league, but he doesn't have the stamina nor skill to be great on both sides of the ball at the same time. I think Houston is way too easy to solve, so I'm not going to knock him huge if his playoffs aren't stellar. Probably the best scorer in the league right now.
4. Anthony Davis - his RS was just better than LeBron's, statistically and otherwise. Defense has come an incredibly long way from last year, and his offense is awesome too. Looking forward to see him in the playoffs.
5. LeBron James: First few months of RS hurt him, but he's been neck and neck w/ Curry and Paul since. Good playoffs can catapult him for sure.
6. Kawhi Leonard: Wow. This guy is a monster. Sort of like LeBron, started slow, but after he found his legs there's not stopping him. Elite on both ends. He has a strong likelihood of moving up based on playoffs.

HM: Aldridge, Westbrook, Griffin, Gasol, Cousins, Green, Duncan, Millsap, Korver, but none of these guys have a chance to move into my top 5.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#75 » by Quotatious » Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:09 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:So my current top 6:

1. Curry - insane lift to an insane team. Pretty easy choice for me.
2. Paul - He has a very, very good case for being the league's best player, on balance, this season. I'm irritated that either him or the Spurs are going to be knocked out in round 1, but c'est la vie. Paul is the Clippers best offensive and defensive player, and they're just better than the Rockets.
3. Harden - can't drop him any lower than this right now, but playoffs could change that. He's been maybe the best offensive player in the league, but he doesn't have the stamina nor skill to be great on both sides of the ball at the same time. I think Houston is way too easy to solve, so I'm not going to knock him huge if his playoffs aren't stellar. Probably the best scorer in the league right now.
4. Anthony Davis - his RS was just better than LeBron's, statistically and otherwise. Defense has come an incredibly long way from last year, and his offense is awesome too. Looking forward to see him in the playoffs.
5. LeBron James: First few months of RS hurt him, but he's been neck and neck w/ Curry and Paul since. Good playoffs can catapult him for sure.
6. Kawhi Leonard: Wow. This guy is a monster. Sort of like LeBron, started slow, but after he found his legs there's not stopping him. Elite on both ends. He has a strong likelihood of moving up based on playoffs.

HM: Aldridge, Westbrook, Griffin, Gasol, Cousins, Green, Duncan, Millsap, Korver, but none of these guys have a chance to move into my top 5.

Considering that you rank Leonard over Westbrook (I strongly disagree with that) - serious question - how close do you think Marion was to Kobe in 2006 and 2007? It's IMO a similar scenario, and I can't fathom taking Marion over Bryant.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#76 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:13 pm

CBA wrote:Top 5 RPM (ESPN):
Curry 8.87
Leonard 8.35
Harden 8.30
James 7.66
Davis 7.52

Top 5 RAPM (EvanZ):
Harden 10.06
Green 8.38
Curry 8.35
Ginobli 8.22
Morrow 7.97


So, that in a nutshell I think shows the argument for xRAPM/RPM and it's reliability: The top 5 guys are for the most part clear superstars and all look very impressive by RAPM.

But at the same time, because of the focus on up'ing reliability at the cost of adding bias as we progress from APM to RAPM to xRAPM/RPM, I'm bothered more by potentially big errors in xRAPM/RPM. Here's the top 7 according to RPM:

1. Curry 8.87
2. Leonard 8.35
3. Harden 8.30
4. James 7.66
5. Davis 7.52
6. Paul 7.43
7. Westbrook 6.58

These guys were basically "the talk of the season". Couldn't ask for results that look any better. Okay, now look at where they stand with RAPM:

1. Harden 10.06
3. Curry 8.35
7. Davis 6.81
8. Leonard 6.73
12. Paul 6.36
13. James 5.91
142. Westbrook 1.00

The first 6 guys there I look at them and think: All look elite, there's nothing in there that makes me change my mind much from the foundation RPM gives us. And then there's Westbrook...

Let's pause to consider here that presumably RPM's box score bias is probably something very much like Box Plus Minus where Westbrook ranks #1 and is rated roughly 50% superior than the 4th best player in the league. So while noise is a possibility here, and while there are particular issues with NPI RAPM that could be factoring in, frankly it seems like the mostly factor that in Westbrook we've found a guy who is essentially the archetype for what's wrong with Box Plus Minus AND what's wrong with using problematic box score assessments as a prior for regression stats.

But as most know: I'm a big Westbrook skeptic, particularly recently as the world has gone nuts with his "I'll do everything myself" approach that I don't think is remotely healthy for a team to try to play around. So fine to chalk up a bias for me, but I'll say I'm shocked at how low Westbrook ranks here. I thought he was overrated, but I'd never have suggested this.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#77 » by Dr Spaceman » Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:43 pm

Quotatious wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:So my current top 6:

1. Curry - insane lift to an insane team. Pretty easy choice for me.
2. Paul - He has a very, very good case for being the league's best player, on balance, this season. I'm irritated that either him or the Spurs are going to be knocked out in round 1, but c'est la vie. Paul is the Clippers best offensive and defensive player, and they're just better than the Rockets.
3. Harden - can't drop him any lower than this right now, but playoffs could change that. He's been maybe the best offensive player in the league, but he doesn't have the stamina nor skill to be great on both sides of the ball at the same time. I think Houston is way too easy to solve, so I'm not going to knock him huge if his playoffs aren't stellar. Probably the best scorer in the league right now.
4. Anthony Davis - his RS was just better than LeBron's, statistically and otherwise. Defense has come an incredibly long way from last year, and his offense is awesome too. Looking forward to see him in the playoffs.
5. LeBron James: First few months of RS hurt him, but he's been neck and neck w/ Curry and Paul since. Good playoffs can catapult him for sure.
6. Kawhi Leonard: Wow. This guy is a monster. Sort of like LeBron, started slow, but after he found his legs there's not stopping him. Elite on both ends. He has a strong likelihood of moving up based on playoffs.

HM: Aldridge, Westbrook, Griffin, Gasol, Cousins, Green, Duncan, Millsap, Korver, but none of these guys have a chance to move into my top 5.

Considering that you rank Leonard over Westbrook (I strongly disagree with that) - serious question - how close do you think Marion was to Kobe in 2006 and 2007? It's IMO a similar scenario, and I can't fathom taking Marion over Bryant.


Ooh- I don't think Marion and Kawhi are the same class of player. Definitely not. For one thing, Leonard is just a more impactful defender, substantively better as far as I'm concerned. Secondly, Marion was the 2nd or third best player on that team, depending on your perspective- they aren't playing the same role to me, Leonard is more analogous to Steve Nash in terms of hierarchy. Kawhi is the teams star, he looks by far the biggest in every plus minus statistic, in fact he looks like the best or second best player in the league by some. They've been basically a .500 team without him. Marion was 45th in the NBA in RAPM in 2006- much better in 2007, but still in a different class from Leonard.

I get it, this is weird, but Kawhi is not the normal player of this archetype. His impact is just gigantic- a closer comparison would be Kirilenko, but still he wasn't as good as Leonard. I agree that skepticism is warranted, but pull back the veil and Kawhi is an extraordinarily impactful player, and the best perimeter defender we have the data for.

Maybe it would help if I explained that I think Kawhi is an offensive star? He's putting up 19/2.5 ast on .637 TS% in March and April combined. If that doesn't qualify as "star" to you, okay, but considering the system he plays in those are big volume numbers. Leonard is absolutely not a guy who's limited to impact on one side of the ball.

EDIT: Draymond Green/Marion is a good comparison. But Kawhi is far better than both guys as far as I'm concerned.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#78 » by PaulieWal » Thu Apr 16, 2015 11:52 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:Maybe it would help if I explained that I think Kawhi is an offensive star? He's putting up 19/2.5 ast on .637 TS% in March and April combined. If that doesn't qualify as "star" to you, okay, but considering the system he plays in those are big volume numbers. Leonard is absolutely not a guy who's limited to impact on one side of the ball.


But that doesn't warrant him being better than RW when we are discussing rankings for the entire year.

I said this before and I will say it again, Westbrook is literally the offense of that team. I know they have shooters and decent offensive bigs now but without KD there is no other creator/play-maker on that team. We all know Brooks offensive sets aren't really creative. Westbrook is the offensive anchor of that team in a way I don't think Leonard could be.

Don't get me wrong, I am very high on his defense but if we are ranking players he's not at 6 for me. To put it into context, RW had a 38 USG% and it's not as simple as saying that he should have given the ball up or played more off the ball but who is he giving the ball up to? Waiters? Augustin? That's historic level of carrying the offensive load. OKC would have easily made the playoffs if Ibaka didn't get hurt.

It's not downplaying what Leonard has done but he simply wasn't that good to start the season and did have the injuries he was dealing with but I am not ready to put him over Russ based on a couple of good months.
JordansBulls wrote:The Warriors are basically a good college team until they meet a team with bigs in the NBA.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#79 » by Dr Spaceman » Fri Apr 17, 2015 12:08 am

PaulieWal wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:Maybe it would help if I explained that I think Kawhi is an offensive star? He's putting up 19/2.5 ast on .637 TS% in March and April combined. If that doesn't qualify as "star" to you, okay, but considering the system he plays in those are big volume numbers. Leonard is absolutely not a guy who's limited to impact on one side of the ball.


But that doesn't warrant him being better than RW when we are discussing rankings for the entire year.

I said this before and I will say it again, Westbrook is literally the offense of that team. I know they have shooters and decent offensive bigs now but without KD there is no other creator/play-maker on that team. We all know Brooks offensive sets aren't really creative. Westbrook is the offensive anchor of that team in a way I don't think Leonard could be.

Don't get me wrong, I am very high on his defense but if we are ranking players he's not at 6 for me. To put into context, RW had a 38 USG% and it's not as simple as saying that he should have given the ball up or played more off the ball but who is he giving the ball up to? Waiters? Augustin? That's historic level of carrying the offensive load. OKC would have easily made the playoffs if Ibaka didn't get hurt.

It's not downplaying what Leonard has done but he simply wasn't that good to start the season and did have the injuries he was dealing with but I am not ready to put him over Russ based on a couple of good months.


Leonard was #1 in J.E.'s midseason RAPM, so quite literally this Kawhi being a top 5 player thing came before he even got injured in the first place. I would absolutely describe him as "that good" to start the season- anyway, why does Westbrook get the full season argument when he missed the first 16 games of the season, and then went through a pretty major slump in January? Shooting 37.6% from the field and 22.2% from 3. That's far worse than any kind of slump Kawhi has had this season.

So, the "quantity" side of the argument doesn't hold water.

On the other hand, it's fine if you don't agree with the way I evaluate players- I want to be clear that I'm not going to put lesser players in my top 5 just because they're good at defense. kWh is a special case, and there really isn't anything like him historically. Like,no perimeter player in the RAPM era has approached this type of impact at all. Westbrook is a good offensive player, but playing with poor supporting talent doesn't upgrade him. It's also strange to use the "Leonard couldn't anchor that offense" argument, do you seriously believe Westbrook could anchor Leonard's defense? It doesn't work like that.

Westbrook is a hero, and his stats are crazy, so sure if you want to rank him above go ahead. But Leonard is the best player by a mile on the 2nd or 3rd best team in the league, and that can't be taken likely. 1st option offense and GOAT defense on like a 9 SRS team since his return is unreasonable- I'd say what he's doing is even more crazy to me than Westbrook scoring a ton.
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Re: All-Season Player of the Year Discussion thread 

Post#80 » by PaulieWal » Fri Apr 17, 2015 12:31 am

Dr Spaceman wrote:Leonard was #1 in J.E.'s midseason RAPM, so quite literally this Kawhi being a top 5 player thing came before he even got injured in the first place. I would absolutely describe him as "that good" to start the season- anyway, why does Westbrook get the full season argument when he missed the first 16 games of the season, and then went through a pretty major slump in January? Shooting 37.6% from the field and 22.2% from 3. That's far worse than any kind of slump Kawhi has had this season.

So, the "quantity" side of the argument doesn't hold water.

On the other hand, it's fine if you don't agree with the way I evaluate players- I want to be clear that I'm not going to put lesser players in my top 5 just because they're good at defense. kWh is a special case, and there really isn't anything like him historically. Like,no perimeter player in the RAPM era has approached this type of impact at all. Westbrook is a good offensive player, but playing with poor supporting talent doesn't upgrade him. It's also strange to use the "Leonard couldn't anchor that offense" argument, do you seriously believe Westbrook could anchor Leonard's defense? It doesn't work like that.

Westbrook is a hero, and his stats are crazy, so sure if you want to rank him above go ahead. But Leonard is the best player by a mile on the 2nd or 3rd best team in the league, and that can't be taken likely. 1st option offense and GOAT defense on like a 9 SRS team since his return is unreasonable- I'd say what he's doing is even more crazy to me than Westbrook scoring a ton.


That's only assuming if we take RAPM rankings completely at their face value and put Leonard at #5.

Leonard absolutely had a mediocre start to the season and was averaging 15/7/3 on 53% TS until the end of February before exploding for the last two months of the season. Westbrook couldn't anchor Leonard's defense but Leonard couldn't anchor Westbrook's offense and this is where we come into the whole offensive anchor vs. defensive anchor and how much value you put into both. For me offensive anchors are slightly more valuable than defensive anchors, I know you value them equally :).

Also, I am pretty sure for the first few months Duncan was the best player on the Spurs, not Leonard (RAPM numbers notwithstanding). Duncan was playing good minutes while anchoring the team defensively and offensively. Leonard plays with such a strong supporting cast that he can do what he does best. Score 16-20 PPG within the flow of the Spurs' offense while being a terror defensively.

Westbrook doesn't have the luxury of picking and choosing his spots. I also think you are underrating Westbrook and what he does offensively. His efficiency is low but there's value in being the guy who carries the offensive load while being the only creator on the team. He doesn't have a Parker, Manu, Diaw, or even Green to take pressure off him offensively. That team has lived and died with him the past few months. Defensively he's not even close to Leonard but I can't hold that against him if he has to do every single thing offensively for his team. Him being one of the 5 or 6 guys in the league who can do that is what makes him comfortably better than Leonard for me.
JordansBulls wrote:The Warriors are basically a good college team until they meet a team with bigs in the NBA.

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