RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#61 » by ardee » Thu Jul 6, 2017 10:07 pm

therealbig3 wrote:
wojoaderge wrote:
micahclay wrote:1) do those extra years of near value not matter? If not, why?
2) is Bird's peak/prime that much better to offset those extra years? How?

Again, let's look at those MVP award shares. Three years of 1st, four years of second, and one each of third and fourth. To me, that illustrates 9 years straight of clear, consistent domination of a league. IMHO, anyway . . .


But playoff performance matters too right? And a few of those MVP-level seasons from Bird are marred by poor playoff performance as a result of injuries, most notably 85 and 88. Considering he was in his peak form from 84-88, 40% of his playoff runs being ruined by injury is a pretty big deal. Yes, he still also has 80-83 and 90, so it's not like it's terrible longevity, but Dirk has like 11 straight years of being a superstar, with only one of his playoff runs affected by injury (03). Kobe has 10 straight years, all of which he was never unavailable for nor severely held back by injury, except for one season (05).

And then that's essentially it for Bird's career. Meanwhile, Dirk and Kobe have very productive non-prime seasons that also add to their career value.

So as far as healthy, prime playoff runs: Bird has 8, Kobe has 9, and Dirk has 10.

Kobe also has years like 99, and 11-13 (not including 00 because of his injuries). Dirk has 12-14. Bird...is basically done other than 80-88 and 90, and like I said, it's hard to really value 85 and 88 Bird all that highly due to the injuries.

If I'm missing injuries for Dirk or Kobe though, point that out. I personally don't remember injuries really playing a role for them in other years.

If we punish 09 CP3 and 16 Curry for playoff injuries, then we should hold Bird to the same standard. Especially if his playoff injury was completely his own fault and not a result of bad luck (like breaking his hand in a bar fight in 85 in the middle of a playoff series).


You would punish someone like '09 Paul for getting injured if he performed below par... which he did.

'85 Bird was still plenty good though. 26-9-6 on a 113 ORtg. It's still as good as any Playoff run Durant has had from '13-'16, for example. He was still unanimously the best player in the league. If you're not going to value that...

I'm voting for Kobe here but want to give Bird his due.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#62 » by THKNKG » Thu Jul 6, 2017 10:09 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:I'm thinking more and more about Dirk vs Bird. Dirk lacked Bird's brilliance. Dirk has a very nice BBIQ as they say, but there's a qualitative difference between a very nice BBIQ and Larry Legend. But y'know, at his peak, Dirk's impact was probably pretty comparable to Bird's, and he played a LOT longer with an extended influence over his team's culture that is fantastic.

These are my thoughts as well. His career was just so short, it's hard to put him at that point, especially since others with comparable impact (West/DRob) get docked to some degree.

Doctor MJ wrote:Oscar & West have in the past been between Bird & Dirk for me, and to be perfectly honest, I don't really feel like Dirk has surpassed them in my mind, I'm just thinking more about Bird & Dirk for I think obvious reasons. Regardless, my respect for these two old timers is immense.

Do you have any thoughts you'd care to share on Oscar vs. West?

Doctor MJ wrote:Something I hadn't really thought about is that West didn't actually play much more than David Robinson, so Robinson needs to be someone I think about.


Speaking of DRob, I had some thoughts earlier in the thread, and I'm looking for some input on it (from anyone).

I wonder - how much of our opinion of DRob is shaped by Wilt/Kareem/Hakeem/Shaq-itis? What I mean is, we can tend to expect all time great big men to be strong volume scorers and excellent defenders (Duncan fits that category as well). However, when players don't fit that description, it can be easy to compare them against that standard even though they play two different styles.

Spoiler:
micahclay wrote:Here's what I mean (KG and DRob are the two biggest examples I can think of). We see two players who make their best living offensively as non-high volume scorers (though I'd say KG is the better offensive player). Since they are lesser than these other big men offensively in that particular category, they unfortunately fall lower. DRob in part falls because he's not Hakeem, but what if his better stylistic parallel is Bill Russell? Would his teams have dropped off in the playoffs as much if he had a different primary scorer and was allowed to play the finisher/face up/defensive anchor instead of anchor of both? Could be something, could be nothing. Just thinking out loud.


So I'd welcome thoughts on that. Do you think we'd think of him differently if he were allowed to play in a role like Russell did, rather than full on, two sided anchor?


Doctor MJ wrote:And well, y'know, Kobe. I'm sure Kobe will be in before I vote for him so does it really matter? Regardless, he's on my mind.

Yeah, Kobe. We're in that polarizing section of the rankings.
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Re: RE: Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#63 » by janmagn » Thu Jul 6, 2017 10:25 pm

micahclay wrote:
Speaking of DRob, I had some thoughts earlier in the thread, and I'm looking for some input on it (from anyone).

I wonder - how much of our opinion of DRob is shaped by Wilt/Kareem/Hakeem/Shaq-itis? What I mean is, we can tend to expect all time great big men to be strong volume scorers and excellent defenders (Duncan fits that category as well). However, when players don't fit that description, it can be easy to compare them against that standard even though they play two different styles.

Spoiler:
micahclay wrote:Here's what I mean (KG and DRob are the two biggest examples I can think of). We see two players who make their best living offensively as non-high volume scorers (though I'd say KG is the better offensive player). Since they are lesser than these other big men offensively in that particular category, they unfortunately fall lower. DRob in part falls because he's not Hakeem, but what if his better stylistic parallel is Bill Russell? Would his teams have dropped off in the playoffs as much if he had a different primary scorer and was allowed to play the finisher/face up/defensive anchor instead of anchor of both? Could be something, could be nothing. Just thinking out loud.


So I'd welcome thoughts on that. Do you think we'd think of him differently if he were allowed to play in a role like Russell did, rather than full on, two sided anchor?




I see Robinson with worse offense and slightly better defense being closer to Mutombo than Russell. Focusing on defense doesn't win DRob any championships

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#64 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jul 6, 2017 10:42 pm

micahclay wrote:Do you have any thoughts you'd care to share on Oscar vs. West?


The contrast? Well:

Oscar was healthier, and while I don't like that being the deciding factor, it's a pretty major difference.

Oscar became an alpha WAY sooner than West. Oscar was probably the best offensive player the NBA had ever seen basically the moment he stopped on the court as a rookie and he commanded the offense with the ease of someone who had been the GOAT college player and recognized as an outlier talent basically the whole time he played.

West came on to Elgin Baylor's team and had to work his way up to even being the beta. While this delayed West's development some, it probably helped him become more versatile in the long run. From a GOAT perspective the potentially bigger issue is the redundancy factor of Baylor, who basically never adjusted his game around West's superior play. Given the talent the two of them had, they could have accomplished more.

By contrast, it's hard to argue whether Oscar got the most out of his teams. He consistently led the best offenses in the league, and when he went to play with Kareem he still managed to have transformative impact.

As I say this though, it should be noted that in '67-68, the Lakers adopted the Princeton offense, and they produced something that surpassed all of Oscar's standards despite the fact that West missed a major chunk of time and the offense got much worse without him. I think West was phenomenal in the Princeton, and would be so in all read & react offenses. He's have massive portability on offense in addition to his superior defense.

Oscar's more of a Chris Paul type. Oscar wants control. Give him control and he'll give you great things, but he will not suffer you and your Snapchat you little snot.

Last note: Both players would be more effective in today's game than they were in the '60s, West especially so. If we were drafting all the guys from that era to play in the modern league, I'd take West over all the others.

But as i alluded to, Oscar's body was just so much more reliable, I tend at this point to side with him.

micahclay wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Something I hadn't really thought about is that West didn't actually play much more than David Robinson, so Robinson needs to be someone I think about.


Speaking of DRob, I had some thoughts earlier in the thread, and I'm looking for some input on it (from anyone).

I wonder - how much of our opinion of DRob is shaped by Wilt/Kareem/Hakeem/Shaq-itis? What I mean is, we can tend to expect all time great big men to be strong volume scorers and excellent defenders (Duncan fits that category as well). However, when players don't fit that description, it can be easy to compare them against that standard even though they play two different styles.

...

So I'd welcome thoughts on that. Do you think we'd think of him differently if he were allowed to play in a role like Russell did, rather than full on, two sided anchor?


I agree and I'll add that it's easy to underrate how impressive Robinson was in his role with Duncan. It's the same type of move Garnett made in Boston except Robinson did it by basically ceding the glamour role to a protege and continuing to mentor him.

Robinson was incredibly special.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#65 » by Senior » Thu Jul 6, 2017 10:45 pm

micahclay wrote:Speaking of DRob, I had some thoughts earlier in the thread, and I'm looking for some input on it (from anyone).

I wonder - how much of our opinion of DRob is shaped by Wilt/Kareem/Hakeem/Shaq-itis? What I mean is, we can tend to expect all time great big men to be strong volume scorers and excellent defenders (Duncan fits that category as well). However, when players don't fit that description, it can be easy to compare them against that standard even though they play two different styles.

Spoiler:
micahclay wrote:Here's what I mean (KG and DRob are the two biggest examples I can think of). We see two players who make their best living offensively as non-high volume scorers (though I'd say KG is the better offensive player). Since they are lesser than these other big men offensively in that particular category, they unfortunately fall lower. DRob in part falls because he's not Hakeem, but what if his better stylistic parallel is Bill Russell? Would his teams have dropped off in the playoffs as much if he had a different primary scorer and was allowed to play the finisher/face up/defensive anchor instead of anchor of both? Could be something, could be nothing. Just thinking out loud.


So I'd welcome thoughts on that. Do you think we'd think of him differently if he were allowed to play in a role like Russell did, rather than full on, two sided anchor?

Everyone would look better if their team constructions allowed them to only have to worry about stuff they were good at. Look at Durant this year. Problem is you don't end up on the 17 Warriors every year.

Would D-Rob look better if he had better offensive support? Sure, doesn't change the fact that his offense had clear holes leading to his team's elimination at his zenith and that someone like Hakeem COULD anchor his team on both ends. Same with peak Shaq/Wilt/young Kareem to an extent. All-time big men are in the best position to anchor teams on both ends, and the best ones actually do it. That's the standard an all-time big man such as D-Rob should be held to. It's not a stylistic standard, it's a "how good are you at basketball" standard.

If he scaled down his offense to his ideal role/ideal volume, we'd still be looking at him as an offensive inferior to someone like Hakeem. Hell, we saw that when Duncan came on - D-Rob's volume fell, his defense numbers went through the roof, and they led one of most dominant defenses ever. Peak D-Rob would obviously fill that role better, but Tim Duncan isn't exactly support you can expect to find on a team.
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Re: RE: Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#66 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Jul 6, 2017 10:50 pm

janmagn wrote:
micahclay wrote:
Speaking of DRob, I had some thoughts earlier in the thread, and I'm looking for some input on it (from anyone).

I wonder - how much of our opinion of DRob is shaped by Wilt/Kareem/Hakeem/Shaq-itis? What I mean is, we can tend to expect all time great big men to be strong volume scorers and excellent defenders (Duncan fits that category as well). However, when players don't fit that description, it can be easy to compare them against that standard even though they play two different styles.

Spoiler:
micahclay wrote:Here's what I mean (KG and DRob are the two biggest examples I can think of). We see two players who make their best living offensively as non-high volume scorers (though I'd say KG is the better offensive player). Since they are lesser than these other big men offensively in that particular category, they unfortunately fall lower. DRob in part falls because he's not Hakeem, but what if his better stylistic parallel is Bill Russell? Would his teams have dropped off in the playoffs as much if he had a different primary scorer and was allowed to play the finisher/face up/defensive anchor instead of anchor of both? Could be something, could be nothing. Just thinking out loud.


So I'd welcome thoughts on that. Do you think we'd think of him differently if he were allowed to play in a role like Russell did, rather than full on, two sided anchor?




I see Robinson with worse offense and slightly better defense being closer to Mutombo than Russell. Focusing on defense doesn't win DRob any championships

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Just so it's known:

The RAPM data we have '98-99 gives Robinson a much stronger scorer than Duncan. Robinson focusing on defense absolutely won he and his team a championship.

It's confusing not just because Duncan was the glamour star then but because Duncan became a greater legend than Robinson, but what Robinson did actually is right in line with the Russell model, as was Garnett's performance in Boston.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#67 » by Gibson22 » Thu Jul 6, 2017 11:00 pm

Stop kobeing

Warned. PW
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#68 » by penbeast0 » Thu Jul 6, 2017 11:18 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
The contrast? Well:

Oscar was healthier, and while I don't like that being the deciding factor, it's a pretty major difference.

Oscar became an alpha WAY sooner than West. Oscar was probably the best offensive player the NBA had ever seen basically the moment he stopped on the court as a rookie and he commanded the offense with the ease of someone who had been the GOAT college player and recognized as an outlier talent basically the whole time he played.

West came on to Elgin Baylor's team and had to work his way up to even being the beta. While this delayed West's development some, it probably helped him become more versatile in the long run. From a GOAT perspective the potentially bigger issue is the redundancy factor of Baylor, who basically never adjusted his game around West's superior play. Given the talent the two of them had, they could have accomplished more.

By contrast, it's hard to argue whether Oscar got the most out of his teams. He consistently led the best offenses in the league, and when he went to play with Kareem he still managed to have transformative impact.

As I say this though, it should be noted that in '67-68, the Lakers adopted the Princeton offense, and they produced something that surpassed all of Oscar's standards despite the fact that West missed a major chunk of time and the offense got much worse without him. I think West was phenomenal in the Princeton, and would be so in all read & react offenses. He's have massive portability on offense in addition to his superior defense.

Oscar's more of a Chris Paul type. Oscar wants control. Give him control and he'll give you great things, but he will not suffer you and your Snapchat you little snot.

Last note: Both players would be more effective in today's game than they were in the '60s, West especially so. If we were drafting all the guys from that era to play in the modern league, I'd take West over all the others.

But as i alluded to, Oscar's body was just so much more reliable, I tend at this point to side with him.

....


I agree that Oscar's health is a major advantage and that he was already in his prime his rookie year . . . but West hit his prime his second year so that's not that major.

I will say that West, not Oscar, probably did more to maximize his team. West had Baylor, who gets a bad rap sometimes but was a truly great player; Oscar had Jerry Lucas who fits his game better and is also a truly great player. Neither Baylor nor Lucas were know for offense, Lucas was the more efficient and the better rebounder despite playing further away from the basket much of the time (at least offensively). Probably equal or better than Baylor at passing too (and worse defensively). Neither had great teammates outside of that (Twyman was before Lucas, not impressed with Embry much, Archie Clark and Goodrich were only there short times . . . Jim Barnett and Adrian Smith were similar). The Lakers did have Rudy LaRusso for awhile, clearly better than Tom Van Arsdale, but is that really enough to justify LA consistently outperforming Cincinnati? The Royals had great offenses but except for a couple of years, lousy defenses (and yes, I blame/credit the main stars like Oscar and West to some degree for that).

The Lakers in West's prime from 62 to 73 averaged a win percentage over .600 with only 1 losing season. The Royals were better than I remembered, averaging around .550 with only two losing seasons (seemed worse because they were seeded against Wilt and Russell most of those years) but those superior offenses didn't translate into superior records. Could it be coaching? Leadership (Oscar was indeed brusque and poker faced, West was a throw your body into the game on both ends type)? West's quick attack outside/inside game v. Oscar's more deliberate back your man down game? LaRusso? West's superior defensive performance making the difference? I don't know, but I look for why there was a clear difference between the teams and it comes back to West being better than Oscar somehow.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#69 » by THKNKG » Thu Jul 6, 2017 11:26 pm

Senior wrote:Everyone would look better if their team constructions allowed them to only have to worry about stuff they were good at. Look at Durant this year. Problem is you don't end up on the 17 Warriors every year.


Well, sure, but that's not what I'm getting at. The role a player plays can affect their impact on the court. Imagine a player like Bill Russell having to shoulder a heavy scoring load (extreme example). Bill Russell wouldn't have changed as a player; his role would have. That role would have reduced his impact. That's what I'm saying. If he was in a *more ideal* role. I am contending that perhaps the disconnect between his massive impact (even above Hakeem) and his PS performance is because 1) defenses could hone in on him more in the PS, whereas in the RS he could get by more on his athletic ability and 2) because the role he was playing (the alpha scorer/alpha defender) was more in the Hakeem/Kareem line of player, whereas I'd say DRob is more in the Russell/KG line of players.

Senior wrote:Would D-Rob look better if he had better offensive support? Sure, doesn't change the fact that his offense had clear holes leading to his team's elimination at his zenith and that someone like Hakeem COULD anchor his team on both ends. Same with peak Shaq/Wilt/young Kareem to an extent. All-time big men are in the best position to anchor teams on both ends, and the best ones actually do it. That's the standard an all-time big man such as D-Rob should be held to. It's not a stylistic standard, it's a "how good are you at basketball" standard.

Again, Russell was not "in the best position to anchor teams on both ends." Do you hold Russell to that standard?

Senior wrote:If he scaled down his offense to his ideal role/ideal volume, we'd still be looking at him as an offensive inferior to someone like Hakeem. Hell, we saw that when Duncan came on - D-Rob's volume fell, his defense numbers went through the roof, and they led one of most dominant defenses ever. Peak D-Rob would obviously fill that role better, but Tim Duncan isn't exactly support you can expect to find on a team.


Offensive inferior, but defensive superior by far. Hakeem is in the line of players who function well as an offensive anchor/defensive anchor, but I feel DRob was more suited to a defensive ANCHOR role, if that makes sense.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#70 » by dontcalltimeout » Thu Jul 6, 2017 11:36 pm

I'm not a voter but i had a thought. What's the case for Kobe over Dirk?

On leading offenses, Dirk has led ATG ones and maintained a high level offense as the supporting cast shifted like musical chairs. He has all-time level gravity, and is not giving up anything to Kobe in terms of "go get me a bucket." He also has more spacing benefit due to his position. He was no world beater on defense, but was a consistent, fundamentally sound defender for way longer than Kobe. He has plenty longevity too.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#71 » by trex_8063 » Thu Jul 6, 2017 11:53 pm

colts18 wrote:
rebirthoftheM wrote:.

RebirthoftheMr Mojo Risin


Don't do this, please. trex
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#72 » by Senior » Thu Jul 6, 2017 11:54 pm

micahclay wrote:Well, sure, but that's not what I'm getting at. The role a player plays can affect their impact on the court. Imagine a player like Bill Russell having to shoulder a heavy scoring load (extreme example). Bill Russell wouldn't have changed as a player; his role would have. That role would have reduced his impact. That's what I'm saying. If he was in a *more ideal* role. I am contending that perhaps the disconnect between his massive impact (even above Hakeem) and his PS performance is because 1) defenses could hone in on him more in the PS, whereas in the RS he could get by more on his athletic ability and 2) because the role he was playing (the alpha scorer/alpha defender) was more in the Hakeem/Kareem line of player, whereas I'd say DRob is more in the Russell/KG line of players.

Defenses hone on every superstar. D-Rob's offensive game was affected more by tougher defenses than the likes of Hakeem or Shaq.

D-Rob's ideal role was basically realized on the 99 Spurs. His ideal role requires more support than the likes of Hakeem/Kareem/Shaq...because his total impact isn't as large is theirs come playoff time. I don't believe that D-Rob should be argued as an equal because his ideal role would exist on fewer teams than the Hakeem/Kareem/Shaq level. How many teams can realistically rely on prime D-Rob to play the role he did on the 99 Spurs? Only teams with other overwhelming talent.

Russell's kind of an exception because his era allowed him to exert far more defensive impact than anyone else except Wilt, but FWIW Russell almost always ramped up his scoring when his team needed it.

Again, Russell was not "in the best position to anchor teams on both ends." Do you hold Russell to that standard?

What I really should've said "anchoring your team on a level that could lead to championships". In Russell's case, despite being almost all D, he was doing enough on that end to stuff the offensive teams of his era such as Sixers and Lakers. That's why they won. Doesn't matter how you do it - just big men are in the best position for both. But someone like Shaq was doing enough on D to win, even if he wasn't the defender Russell was and he was making it up by obliterating people's faces.

D-Rob, on the other hand, did not do so for his teams pre-Duncan. He slid into his ideal role when a better player came onto his team.

Offensive inferior, but defensive superior by far. Hakeem is in the line of players who function well as an offensive anchor/defensive anchor, but I feel DRob was more suited to a defensive ANCHOR role, if that makes sense.

How can you say D-Rob's was a far superior defender to Hakeem? Hakeem's already like a top 10 defender all-time, and he certainly didn't have the luxury of just focusing on defense like D-Rob did in 1999. Again, teams just aren't stacked enough to allow dudes like prime D-Rob or Hakeem to just act as the defensive killer.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#73 » by THKNKG » Thu Jul 6, 2017 11:57 pm

dontcalltimeout wrote:I'm not a voter but i had a thought. What's the case for Kobe over Dirk?

On leading offenses, Dirk has led ATG ones and maintained a high level offense as the supporting cast shifted like musical chairs. He has all-time level gravity, and is not giving up anything to Kobe in terms of "go get me a bucket." He also has more spacing benefit due to his position. He was no world beater on defense, but was a consistent, fundamentally sound defender for way longer than Kobe. He has plenty longevity too.


I'm watching/scouting some of the 2011 finals game 3, and it's crazy to see how effective his gravity was. It's opening up space to the paint, causing perimeter defenders to waver between him and their man, opening up the PnR for other players just by existing, opening up the lane by drawing away their center, etc.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#74 » by trex_8063 » Fri Jul 7, 2017 12:07 am

Outside wrote:
Styrian wrote:Bird only played 12 seasons, had numerous playoff failures and his overall career value just doesn't come close to a lot of the guys left. I'd rank Garnett, Hakeem, Robinson, Dirk, Kobe and Malone over him.

I'm curious why you have that opinion of Bird. Longevity is the weakest point in his resume as a top-10 candidate, but I don't see the two points I highlighted as valid criticisms.

Regarding playoff failures, Bird led his team to the finals five times in 12 years and won three titles, which is better than everyone you listed except Kobe.



Regarding "playoff failures", I think he's more referring to Bird's individual performance on a somewhat general level, and not the team result.
In broad strokes: Bird from '80-'88 was a 24.2 PER, .217 WS/48, +7.6 BPM player in the rs. In the playoffs over those same years he was 21.9 PER, .183 WS/48, +7.4 BPM. It's somewhat more decline than we see from most of the other primary candidates at this stage of the project, certainly more than Olajuwon or Kobe; Garnett's statistical decline is roughly the same (or perhaps marginally larger); Karl Malone's is a little larger, but he doesn't really have any traction at this stage.

Regarding "overall career value": that directly relates to his relatively poor longevity (which you yourself acknowledged).

Doesn't mean he's not a valid candidate here (I'm thinking of making him my alternate vote); but those are otherwise somewhat valid comments regarding his candidacy vs the other players on the table right now.


penbeast0 wrote:.


Hey pen. I need to ask another favour of you and see if you can count the votes in this one and start the next thread tomorrow; tomorrow just after midday this thread will be roughly 48 hour old. I'll be travelling again, and while I'll mostly have internet, I don't know how often I'll actually be able to sit down and facilitate things tomorrow. There's a bunch of stuff from this thread and last I want to respond to, and I'm going to try and hammer thru it all late tonight (as well as decide who my picks will be). Don't know if I can be active in the thread tomorrow though. Can you cover for me?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#75 » by therealbig3 » Fri Jul 7, 2017 12:13 am

ardee wrote:
therealbig3 wrote:
wojoaderge wrote:Again, let's look at those MVP award shares. Three years of 1st, four years of second, and one each of third and fourth. To me, that illustrates 9 years straight of clear, consistent domination of a league. IMHO, anyway . . .


But playoff performance matters too right? And a few of those MVP-level seasons from Bird are marred by poor playoff performance as a result of injuries, most notably 85 and 88. Considering he was in his peak form from 84-88, 40% of his playoff runs being ruined by injury is a pretty big deal. Yes, he still also has 80-83 and 90, so it's not like it's terrible longevity, but Dirk has like 11 straight years of being a superstar, with only one of his playoff runs affected by injury (03). Kobe has 10 straight years, all of which he was never unavailable for nor severely held back by injury, except for one season (05).

And then that's essentially it for Bird's career. Meanwhile, Dirk and Kobe have very productive non-prime seasons that also add to their career value.

So as far as healthy, prime playoff runs: Bird has 8, Kobe has 9, and Dirk has 10.

Kobe also has years like 99, and 11-13 (not including 00 because of his injuries). Dirk has 12-14. Bird...is basically done other than 80-88 and 90, and like I said, it's hard to really value 85 and 88 Bird all that highly due to the injuries.

If I'm missing injuries for Dirk or Kobe though, point that out. I personally don't remember injuries really playing a role for them in other years.

If we punish 09 CP3 and 16 Curry for playoff injuries, then we should hold Bird to the same standard. Especially if his playoff injury was completely his own fault and not a result of bad luck (like breaking his hand in a bar fight in 85 in the middle of a playoff series).


You would punish someone like '09 Paul for getting injured if he performed below par... which he did.

'85 Bird was still plenty good though. 26-9-6 on a 113 ORtg. It's still as good as any Playoff run Durant has had from '13-'16, for example. He was still unanimously the best player in the league. If you're not going to value that...

I'm voting for Kobe here but want to give Bird his due.


Yeah, Bird WAS playing well, until he got in a bar fight and broke his hand, after which his shooting tanked and his team lost as a result.

That's actually worse than simply getting injured naturally and not playing well as a result, because Bird essentially sabotaged his team's chances at a title that year.

Not trying to vilify him, because everyone makes stupid life decisions every now and then, but let's call it for what it is. He basically actively killed his team's title chances.

His injury apparently occurred on May 16, 1985. Up to that point, he was averaging about 29 ppg on 55% TS and a 119 ORating. After that, he averaged 22 ppg on 52% TS and a 105 ORating.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#76 » by rebirthoftheM » Fri Jul 7, 2017 12:17 am

dontcalltimeout wrote:I'm not a voter but i had a thought. What's the case for Kobe over Dirk?

On leading offenses, Dirk has led ATG ones and maintained a high level offense as the supporting cast shifted like musical chairs. He has all-time level gravity, and is not giving up anything to Kobe in terms of "go get me a bucket." He also has more spacing benefit due to his position. He was no world beater on defense, but was a consistent, fundamentally sound defender for way longer than Kobe. He has plenty longevity too.


Kobe was not inferior at all in terms of gravity IMO. They just operated differently. Also Kobe was a brilliant spacer, though I think Dirk was better. Cue the Laker 08-10 Kobe-Pau-Odom 3 man trio, which worked mightily because Kobe was able to draw attention out on the perimeter because of the threat of his perimeter game. Kobe also had the added strength of the ability to split/breakdown defenses from the perimeter + hit shooters+ play the P & R roll as the guard in the situation, which would normally be left to a point guard. I can entertain an argument that Dirk was the more impactful offensive player, but I don't really see evidence for it. At worst, they are pretty much equal, but if anything, we see that healthy Kobe as a #1 on a team built around him has a slight edge over Dirk (if we are focusing on ORAPM), and Kobe demonstrated also he could be a elite #2 focal option.

Defensively, I will get to this point shortly, but to put it briefly, neither Kobe nor Dirk were high value defenders in the RS, in the sense that their defense was game-changing. To me, the success of a teams defense is heavily team orientated, and therefore using defensive indicators as trump cards IMO is insufficient. For example, after watching about 8-10 games or so from 06 Lakers, and then seriously considering some recaps of the games from other sources, it became evident to me that Kobe was not, either directly or indirectly, responsible for most/more than his fair share of the points the Lakers were giving up. His bad defensive plays were visually egregious, but then he also had some very good defensive plays during the games and upped his intensity late in games. Overall though, he simply wasn't involved much in the points being given up. On the flip side, per eye test (again, I find this to be far more valuable in examining defense, hence why I am troubled by KG's defensive indicators in 05/06) he ups his level of defensive intensity and attention in the PS, and is an above average team defender and man defender. Kobe also, if you watch closely in the PS, is constantly chirping on the court on the slide-line, giving tips to his teammates on that side of that ball. Pau noted Kobe's advice helped him out a lot. Make of that what you wish..

Kobe also had two elite defensive seasons (for a perimeter player that is), one of which he was a legit elite two way player, and was the teams most valuable defender all the way through to the PS. I'm not sure Dirk can make this claim at all, and given that they were generally not game-changer defenders, this matters to me.

I know many will suggest that my take on defense is hella subjective. And it is. But a long time ago, I lost all confidence in defensive indicators as telling me anything useful about what is going on in a game. And after examining the game tape, and seeing that Smush Parker and Brian Cook, two players who played a very high amount of minuted w Kobe (and also slow footed Chris Mihm who could only block shots sometimes), were two of the major culprits in the defensive breakdowns, my convictions were strengthened.

So for me, Dirk's RS defense does not move the needle for me, and in the PS, I don't see things shifting.

As for Kobe's strengths over Dirk. I will try and put things together, but in short. While both Dirk and Kobe were resilient playoff performances, Kobe IMO was slightly better (talking about their primes here). This gap widens little (though still not that large) when facing elite defenses (and by elite, I mean non- historically GOAT defensive teams, something that Kobe had to face 3 times in the playoffs- 04 Spurs/Pistons in the GOAT defensive era & 08 Celtics to Dirk's Nil). I also think Dirk for half of his prime, could be neutralized by long-ish athletic defenders, while I feel that prime Kobe could only be neutralized by very elite/GOAT like defensive teams.

Also Dirk's 06 finals performance, in which his team blew a 2-0 lead with HCA, being guarded by Udonis Haslem and James Posey, two dudes he had several inches on, and by a team who was not at all historically great on defense (like the 04 pistons, or the 08 Celtics- two teams Kobe faltered against) would count against him, as would the infamous 07 series with the Mavs as a #1 seed 65+ win team. He was getting doubled, sometimes trippled again, but he was being guarded by dudes who were undersized. I think Dirk's "low" moments are far more damaging than Kobe's "low moments". Again, just my opinion.

They are both great players IMO, and on an objective level, I can see someone making a good case for Dirk. But getting nitpicky, I think Kobe has the slight edge.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#77 » by 2klegend » Fri Jul 7, 2017 12:31 am

Time to cast the vote.

At #9, it is starting to get close between Bird/Hakeem. Peak and prime, they are both close enough that it's often difficult to see who have a clear edge in overall career dominant and success. I like to look at their period of prime and how much they accomplished in those time and how much of their performance contributed to their success. This is where the Larry Legend really shine.

He was a top 5 in MVP win share from the moment he stepped on the NBA court in 1980 to 1988 or more impressively, a top 3 in MVP win share from 81-88. We are talking about a guy who been considered for the most valuable player award and the consensus best from 84-86 winning 3 MVPs in a roll in that same time frame for over 75% of his NBA career. For the limit amount of time he played in the NBA relative to other great, Larry Bird had been nothing short of pure domination and the success that came with it. That is something Hakeem, despite having a slightly better peak, prime, and maybe longevity cannot overcome that level of success and dominant.

1st pick: Larry Bird
2nd pick: Hakeem
My Top 100+ GOAT (Peak, Prime, Longevity, Award):
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#78 » by eminence » Fri Jul 7, 2017 1:03 am

Doc MJ already posted this in the RPOY discussion thread, but I think it has some relevance to us here as well (particularly with respect to KG/Kobe/Dirk who all seem to be making a little noise). New blog post from Elgee:

http://www.backpicks.com/2017/07/06/supporting-casts-are-more-important-than-stars/
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#79 » by trex_8063 » Fri Jul 7, 2017 2:17 am

micahclay wrote:
kayess wrote:Man that last thread got ugly.

Although I think KG's cast was worse - undeniably so- I think it's irritating to preach KG's values, how it doesn't show up in the box, highlight the importance of fit, then turn around and say "his teammates are crap because of VORP, etc", (note: I KNOW we used RAPM to show this as well), and ignore fit (Mike James' numbers are emtpy, yeah - but the one thing he can do above average fits what they needed).

It just reeks of shifting criteria because we would never use VORP or WS to make points for/against the player himself, but to denigrate the cast/prop up the cast of the player we're arguing against. We make the best possible case for one player, and just an average - worst possible case for the other, instead of just basing it on a solid, non-shifting criteria.



To be fair, people only went to WP/VORP because people would not accept any other avenue.


The other thing I’d note is that for some players most of their impact DOES show up in the boxscore. Garnett is at least marginally unique in that he does exert a fair bit of non-boxscore value (not every player does).

Further, there was someone (drza, iirc) who recently noted how in the 2014 project many people were doing sort of a “scouting report” type of analysis/description of where Garnett’s tangible non-boxscore impact comes from…...but there was blowback against that (accusation that it was conjecture, intellectually dishonest, etc), and thus his supporters have been more inclined to try a more traditional (that is: stat-based) approach this time around.


But then there are others who still seem to be calling for the other:

(from end of last thread):
rebirthoftheM wrote:Noticed the voting is closed, but the discussion will continue, so will chip in here.

One thing that I’ve noticed in my short time on this board, and which has been somewhat evident in these ATG List threads, is the absolute confidence displayed by posters about certain players/teams with little to no reference to game tape and nuanced takes on team context. What instead occurs is the selective usage of certain data sets, which in it of themselves tell you literally nothing about what is going on the court ( I mean RAPM tells you nothing how a player actually played/what was on going on the court). IMO this cheapens the analysis. Not suggesting at all that this applies to everyone, but it does seem noticeably prevalent, even in the conversations I’ve personally engaged in.

I’ve generally tried to stay away from this approach, even about the players who I’m generally suspicious of (say KG). This is why, despite KG’s defensive indicators looking very strange in 05-06, and in fact going into the negatives in the 05 season, I wasn’t comfortable with making concrete conclusions it. What I did instead, was that I made numerous posts, imploring his fans, who I assume would have watched the Wolves during those years, to explain what had transpired. So far there has been no adequate explanation, which makes me think either they completely forgot or as I highly suspect, did not watch much of the dumpster Wolves during those years. .


He seems to be calling for explanation of WHERE Garnett’s non-boxscore impact comes from……...I’d noted some explanation of this had already been provided (from post #23 of last thread, edited out a little; most of the “scouting observations” begin about third of the way in, and continue to the end):

therealbig3 wrote:
ElGee wrote:
(3) Hero Ball on Bad Teams

    Guys, you won't understand why we value KG so highly unless you can buy-in that evaluating players on bad teams is not an accurate reflection of their value to all teams. Or that basketball is not a one-on-one game.

    That's really a key to the counter-argument here -- "when you need a bucket, who can get you one?" The more your team has to implement that strategy, the worse off they are. We're interested in the overall performance of the race car and you want to talk about how well it handles in the rain...only it doesn't rain that much. You might think "wait, it rains a lot in the NBA! Teams really need buckets at key times."

    But the evidence says that isolation Hero-Ball is generally a bad idea.

(4) And really, how much better is Duncan at Hero Ball?

    The counter-argument is that KG's offensive game is less effective against top defenses relative to Duncan. There's truth in that, but to what degree? There are 2 key factors here:

      (1) This difference is probably very small (data forthcoming)
      (2) The better the teammates, the less this difference is really relevant

    Garnett's relative TS% in 99-08 PS games was +0.1%. Tim Duncan was +2.9%. (Kobe +2.9%. Jordan +4.1%.) He scores at 29.7 pts/100 in that span. Duncan scores at 32.1...8% more per 100. Do you know how easy it is to redistribute those possessions to better opportunities? Or make up for them in other ways? Or to not run them at all in place of much better scoring paths on higher quality teams?

    If you give Duncan Garnett's teams and KG Pop, Manu, Parker, etc. you think that their stats will remain the same?

(5) Their situations aren't the same

Posted this earlier -- perhaps no one saw it:
"Shoulder all load" 03 Duncan v LA: 29.0 ppg 51.7% TS 25.1% ast 14.1% TOV 103 ortg
"Shoulder most load" 03 KG v LA: 27.0 ppg 53.9% TS 23.4% ast 10.7% TOV 105 ortg
"Shoulder most load" 04 KG v LA: 23.7 ppg 51.8% TS 22.1% ast 13.8% TOV 100 ortg

Spoiler:
Out of curiosity, I looked at Duncan's 16 wins in 2003:

Duncan 2003 PS wins: 23.9 ppg 58% TS 16.6 rpg 6.0 apg 3.4 TOV 4.0 blck 24.4 GmSc
[KG 2003-04 PS wins: 28.3 ppg 54% TS 15.5 rpg 4.8 rpg 3.4 TOV 2.9 blck 24.3 GmSc]

And their 8-best games of the 24 we're discussing:

Duncan 03: 32.6 ppg 65.0%$ TS 17.0 rpg 5.9 apg 3.4 TOV 3.9 Blck 32.0 GmSc (vs. 101.5 DRtg)
KG 03-04: 30.5 ppg 58.6% TS 15.0 rpg 5.1 apg 3.0 TOV 3.1 Blck 27.6 GmSc (vs 103.8 DRtg)

Of course, Duncan's on a better team (as you'll notice by his weaker numbers in wins, for example), which you can argue helps his scoring stats AND helps his rebounding (because KG has a 31 to 27% DRB% edge). You can argue that KG would have done work against Kenyon Martin despite New Jersey's 98.1 DRtg or that his numbers would look nicer if he played Dallas and Phoenix. You can argue that Duncan had to spend less energy on defense. Etc. But note Duncan's statistics.


You brought up pace too. Just so people can understand what we're looking at here:
Wilt 1962 28.7 pts/75 (estimated)
KG (03-04 PS) 27.4 pts/75
Duncan 03 PS 26.6 pts/75


Adding context -- LA's defense in 2003 was +2 with Shaq. In 2004 with the Big 4 in, it was -3.3. I have a hard time seeing a clear difference here in Garnett and Duncan's scoring statistics, so I'll post a bunch more in a second...

(6) Clutch (Hero Ball) statistics

    I think that's what you're referring to when you ask someone to substantiate Garnett's scoring game. (e.g. all the "1st option" criticisms.) Who can "score when the team needs it?"

    Again, if the team needs it a lot, they ain't a good team. But what do the numbers actually say? How much better productions did Duncan get out of his stronger base, bank shot and rolling hook compared to KG's pull-ups, fadeaways and spins?

Spoiler:
From 2001-2011, Garnett shot at -0.8% below league average for eFG% in 5+5 situations (59% assisted)
From 2001-2011, Duncan shot at at +0.8% above league average for eFG% in 5+5 situations (41% assisted)

From 2002-2005, here's how they fared in the RS 5+5:

    Duncan: 524 mp | 25.7 pts/36 | 43.3% eFG% | 13.6 FTA/36 | 53.6% TS% |
    Garnett: 627 mp | 23.6 pts/36 | 46.8% eFG% | 8.6 FTA/36 | 54.15 TS
|

From 2002-2005, down 5 or tied:
    Duncan: 271 mp | 29.2 pts/36 | 45.4% eFG% | 12.8 FTA/36
    Garnett: 268 mp | 30.8 pts/36 | 46.3% eFG% | 10.7 FTA/36

Playoffs 98-08
    Duncan: 386 mp | 21.8 pts/36 | 48.8% eFG% | 11.4 FTA/36 | 53.0% TS%
    Garnett: 259 mp | 17.7 pts/36 | 45.7% eFG% | 6.0 FTA/36 | 51.7% TS%


(7) "First Option" Importance v Team

    Trying to get at the heart of the matter for people because I've gone through the machinations myself. Here are the best healthy teams by SRS since Jordan:

      14 Spurs (11.8 SRS)
      04 Pistons (10.2 SRS)
      00 Lakers (9.7 SRS)
      08 Celtics (9.7 SRS)
      12 Spurs (9.6 SRS)
      09 Celtics (9.3 SRS)
      05 Spurs (9.1 SRS)

    Who were the "1st options" on those teams? (Hint: It's a trick question)

    If you don't look at the results and see a clear trend that screams "you don't need a great iso scorer to build a great team around, you'll never understand why KG is so valued. It's also why I value Duncan so highly -- I don't think of him as an all-time great offensive player. I just think the hang-up is that Duncan has better low-post isolation scoring (and by what, 3%? 5%?) and people default to that difference over everything else. But as we just saw, that difference is almost negligible. Give Duncan in the nod for isolation buckets, but Garnett will still be there to score key buckets (without a "falling of a quite a bit") as well as his spacing and passing that scales up to better teams.

Finally, I really sympathize with people on Garnett. We ask everyone to update their mental file of basketball in ways that seem counter-intuitive and challenge status quo. The mainstream feeds you a steady diet of scoring, scoring, and some flash thrown in. Accepting defensive impact is one thing. But here it's practically geometry analytics. It's a clear shift. And people accept many of these things about Garnett, and slowly come along with their evaluation, and then all of a sudden -- BOOM -- another jump is asked of them. Based largely on new considerations of longevity, and careers, and in conjunction with the most data-rich era in NBA history that also can be overwhelming. And you end up thinking "I'm being fair to KG, how can someone vote him 4th?!"

To that I say this: Don't identify with your rankings. The more I research, the more two my favorite basketball savants slide (Magic and Bird). So what? Doesn't change how great they were. Doesn't change how entertaining or unique they were. It just means that I have a clearer picture of them as well as other players and the sport. And sometimes, more guys just come along. I have Jerry West closer to 20 than to 5. Do I think Jerry West is absolutely awesome? Yup. But he was injured all the time. Do I think KG can hang with any of the GOAT offensive players, let alone scorers? Nope. But when you're all-time good defensively and have a really good offensive package and your longevity is sick...you're going ahead of West, and Magic, and Bird...NB: That's why I have Tim Duncan ahead of them as well. ;)

PS If I thought David Robinson could pass or possessed the outside shot KG had, AND he had Garnett's longevity, I'd have him in my top-10 too.


ElGee wrote:
fpliii wrote:I'm still struggling with the four bigs. Hopefully I'll figure something out in the next couple of days. Just a couple of questions for anybody who has time:

1) How do we feel about KG's defensive game horizontally compared to Hakeem's?
2) How many more years of 84-88 level Bird would you guys need to see to consider him here? How many years at his 80-83 level instead? I'm not trying to take into account years Bird didn't play, don't get me wrong. Just trying to get an idea of how big the perceived gap is between the current batch and him.


I'll address No. 1 because I'll post on Bird later. I've broken down film in past projects on KG if anyone wants to search (as well as 2010/11 film supported by stat-tracking). With Hakeem I've never gone into that detail on the site, so with both those caveats, I'll give you my general take:

-KG is better horizontally than maybe anyone ever, including Hakeem. I'll exclude Russell for a second because my point mostly centers around the 2 and 3-man game concept that is so prevalent today. Alert: If you're criteria is for 2005-present rules, pay attention! Kevin Garnett is like Ray Lewis against the pick and roll. This basically impacts the whole court, and it's why I think his defensive RAPM scores are so good in Boston.

-guarding the screener: Garnett, because of his length and coverage, has an incredible balance of showing against the ball handler around a screen while still simultaneously sticking with his man. His communication on this front is matched by no one I've seen -- constant talking and communicating about the timing of switching on/off and showing. The inability to allow a team to gain an advantage via the PnR -- the most common shot-creation method in the current NBA rules -- blows up weak side and strong side threats because KG and his man still stick to the ball handler and screener and there is no breakdown (no help needed) on the backside of the defense.

-as the helper: Here's where KG really flexes his Middle Linebacker. He reads offenses like Manning and Brady read defenses. PnR advantages are about who is involved -- usually who is dribbling -- but it's also about angles and spacing of the screener in relation to the other guys on the court. Garnett's positioning in this regard -- what used to be illegal in the illegal D days -- is scary good. It's human chess. Go watch game tape of the 08 or 10 playoffs -- he always moves the proper distance out to the screen action while keeping track of not just his man, but the help-the-helpers (because KG, in accordance with the defensive scheme) has communicated to his guys to slide into helping position on a screen. This was the strength of the historically good Boston D, and it started with him, and it's a lot of the reason why (again, IMO) his RAPM numbers were amazing in Boston despite a diminished rim presence.

PS I'm sure there's youtube breakdowns or a Lowe analysis of this somewhere on the net with visuals/video. Don't have to time to it here myself, but if you find a game, just watch how he handles these situations...to me, that's the horizontal impact.


SideshowBob wrote:Garnett's offense can be broken down like this:

-Spacing
-PnR (Roll/Pop)
-High-Post
-Low-Post
-Mid-Post
-Screens

Remember, there is overlap between these offensive skills/features; I'm trying to give a broad-strokes perspective here.

Let's talk about his shooting really quick, and then dive in. What I want to consider is how and which of these traits show up in the box-score, as well as which would be resilient in the face of smarter defenses.


-Has range out to the 3 pt line but practically/effectively speaking, he's going out to ~22 feet.
-From 10-23 feet, shot 47.7% in 03 (9.6 FGA/G), 45.2% in 04 (11.0 FGA/G), 44.6% in 05 (8.3 FGA/G), 48.4% in 06 (8.4 FGA/G)
-16-23 ft range, he's assisted on ~77% over those 4 years
-Shooting at the big-man positions is a conundrum - shooting 4/5s are often associated with weak (breakeven) or bad (negative) defense. Garnett is one of the few exceptions in that not only is he an elite shooter, there's virtually no defensive opportunity cost to playing him over anyone in history.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When he's on the ball, he can utilize his exceptional ball-handling skills to create separation and knock it down. When he's off the ball, he's always a threat to convert - the fact that he's assisted so frequently on 16-23 ft shots means they're mostly coming on a Pick and Pop or a drive and kick, which means a lot of them are open. He's usually shooting around 45% overall from there, so we're looking at high 40s on open shots and low-mid 40s on created ones. BOTH of those numbers are strong, and that's where the first offensive trait comes; Spacing. His shooting spaces the floor. A LOT - despite the fact that he doesn't shoot 3s, he forces bigs out of the paint and opens up the lane. Because he's not a 3-point shooter though, this effect doesn't really show up in the box-score. And yet, this effect will always be present; doesn't matter how much a defense slows down his raw production in the playoffs, the spacing effect will always be present - he's going to try and create shots from out there and he's going to pop/spot-up; give him space/leave him open and he'll convert at .95-1.00 PPP (which is very strong in the halfcourt). Cover him/recover on him with a little guy and he'll just shoot right over. His man has to come out and try and cover him, and this means that there will always be a marginal improvement for the rest of the team with regards to the lane being open. The only real way to reduce this? Have someone at the 1-3 that can cover him (has the size/strength to cope with his shot/inside game for stretches at a time), but even then, you might yield a disadvantage with one of your bigs covering a small ball-handler.

So next, his PnR game. Crucially, he's a dual threat, he's deadly popping out (as demonstrated above) but even crazier rolling to the basket (high 60s-70ish finishing, that includes post/isolation, thus baskets on the roll would likely be higher. The rolls are similar (though not equal) to drives to the basket and aside from finishing offer an opportunity to kick it out. THIS aspect is captured fairly well by the box-score (rolls into finishes - FG%, finishes - PTS, kick outs - direct assists). This is also one that good PnR defense teams can slow down. Close off the PnR by stopping the ball handler (aggressive blitz/trap to force the ball out their hands before the PnR is initiated, or drop center, ice sideline to deny the ball-handler middle), or rely on strong rotations into the lane to close off easy baskets off a roll. When we talk about his postseason dips (mainly PPG and TS%), this is mostly where they're coming from (and face up game which I'll get to later).

So now, the post options. The high post probably yields the largest fraction of his offensive impact. His scoring skills (again, ball-handling to set up midrange game, quickness/explosion to attack the basket straight on, catch&shoot/spotup, etc.) means that he draws a great amount of attention here, again, pulling a big away from the restricted area and up to the free throw line. This is significant because he can spot and capitalize on any off ball movement, use his passing to force rotations until an opportunity is created, play the give and go with a small. Essentially, there are a ton of options available here due to his gravity and diversity, yet almost none of this will show up in the box-score. Unless he hits a cutter with a wide open lane or a shooter with a wide open corner, he's not going to be credited with the assist.

Imagine - he sucks/turns the attention of the defense to himself, a cutter sees an opening and zips in from the wing, which forces a defender from the corner to come over and protect the basket, leaving a shooter open. Garnett hits the cutter who dishes it out, or he kicks the ball out to the perimeter and it is swung around to the open shooter. Garnett's pressure created the opening, and his passing/vision got the ball where it needed to go, but he's given no credit in the box-score.

Give and go is another example - at the top of the key, he gets the ball, his man (a big) is now worried about his shot and starts to close in, the lane has one less protector, the PG who just threw it in to him now curls around him with a quick handoff, his defender now runs into Garnett or his man and the PG gets an open lane to the basket. If someone has rotated over, a shooter will be open, if not, free layup for the PG, or a kick out for a reset for Garnett in the high/mid-block area. IF it works out that the PG gets an opening up top on the handoff, then he may get a pullup and Garnett is credited with an assist, but in most scenarios, it will play out that again, Garnett gets no box-score credit.

The effect of this play on the offense is resilient, its going to remain present against strong defenses. It doesn't matter how strong your rotations are or what kind of personnel you have, the key is that adjustments have to be made to combat a talented high-post hub, and when adjustments are made, there is always a cost (which means the defense must yield somewhere) and therein lies the impact. This is one of the most defense-resistant AND portable offensive skillsets that one can have (you're almost never going to have issue with fit) and its what made Garnett, Walton, 67 Chamberlain, so valuable.

Mid-Post and face-up game are a little more visible in the box-score (similar to PnR). Mostly comprised of either blowing by the defender and making quick moves to the basket (and draw a foul) or setting up the close-mid-range shot. This is his isolation offense, something that will tend to suffer against stronger, well equipped defenses that can close off the lane, which sort of strips away the "attack the basket, draw free throws" part and reduces it to just set up mid-range jumpshots. Garnett's obviously great at these, but taking away the higher-percentage inside shots will hurt his shooting numbers, volume, and FTA bit. The key then is, how disciplined is the defense. Yes they can close the paint off, but can they do so without yielding too much somewhere else - was there a missed rotation/help when someone left his man to help cover the paint. If yes, then there is impact, as there is anytime opportunities are created, if no then its unlikely any opportunity was created and the best option becomes to just shoot a jumper. This is the other feature of his game that isn't as resilient in the face of smart defenses.

The low-post game is crucial because it provides both a spacing effect and the additional value of his scoring. While he lacks the upper body strength to consistently finish inside against larger bigs, he can always just shoot over them at a reliable % instead, and against most matchups he's skilled enough back-to-basket and face-up that he can typically get to the rim and score. Being able to do this means that he draws attention/doubles, and he's one of the best at his position ever at capitalizing by passing out to an open shooter or kicking it out to swing the ball around the perimeter to the open guy (in case the double comes from the opposite corner/baseline) and all of this action tends force rotations enough that you can get some seams for cuts as well. Outside of scoring or making a direct pass to the open guy, the hockey assists won't show up in the box-score. But, more importantly, there is a crucial utility in having a guy diverse enough that he can play inside and out equally effectively - lineup diversity. He fills so many staples of an offense himself that it allows the team to run more specialized lineups/personnel that might not conventionally work, and this forces defenses to adjust (! that's a key word here). He doesn't have to do anything here that shows up in the box-score, all he needs to do is be on the floor. You can argue the low-post ability as a 50/50 box-score/non-box-score, but I'd lean towards giving the latter more weight.

Finally screens. The effect of Garnett's screens is elite, because of his strong lower body base and because of the diversity of his offensive threat (and he just doesn't get called for moving screens). Its tough for most players to go through/over a Garnett screen, which makes him ideal for setting up jumpers and cutters off the ball. When he's screening on the ball, everyone involved has to worry about his dual scoring threat, and when that happens, that gives the ball-handler that much more space to work with. Marginal on a single possession, significant when added up over the course of ~75 possessions, and extremely resilient - how do you stop good screens? You don't really, you just stay as disciplined as possible. And this effect is completely absent in the box-score.

So what's important now is to consider the fact that most of Garnett's offense does not show up in the box-score! And I wouldn't call what he does on the floor the "little things" (this is just something people have been conditioned to say, most things that aren't covered in the box-score have become atypical/unconventional or associated with grit/hustle, despite the fact that these are pretty fundamental basketball actions/skills). Something like 75-80% of his offensive value just simply isn't tracked by "conventional" recordkeeping, yet the focus with Garnett is almost always on the dip in scoring and efficiency. So what if the 20% that is tracked has fallen off. Even if that aspect of his game fell off by 50% (it hasn't), the rest of his game is so fundamentally resilient that I'm not even sure what degree of defense it would take to neutralize it (at least to an effective degree, I'm welcome to explanations), and that still puts him at 80-90% of his max offensive impact (given the increased loads he was typically carrying in the playoffs, I doubt it even went that low). The generalized argument against him of course tends to be "where are the results", and quite frankly it needs to be hammered home that his Minnesota casts were actually that bad. Not mid 2000s Kobe/Lebron bad, like REALLY bad, like worst of any top 10 player bad.


So it seems this too has been covered (though maybe some video examples is what is wanted??? I’ll try to provide some later). Really the arguments in favor of Garnett have been very thorough and broad-based (and I say this as someone who has yet to lend him any support by way of voting).
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
dontcalltimeout
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #9 

Post#80 » by dontcalltimeout » Fri Jul 7, 2017 2:21 am

rebirthoftheM wrote:
Spoiler:
dontcalltimeout wrote:I'm not a voter but i had a thought. What's the case for Kobe over Dirk?

On leading offenses, Dirk has led ATG ones and maintained a high level offense as the supporting cast shifted like musical chairs. He has all-time level gravity, and is not giving up anything to Kobe in terms of "go get me a bucket." He also has more spacing benefit due to his position. He was no world beater on defense, but was a consistent, fundamentally sound defender for way longer than Kobe. He has plenty longevity too.


Kobe was not inferior at all in terms of gravity IMO. They just operated differently. Also Kobe was a brilliant spacer, though I think Dirk was better. Cue the Laker 08-10 Kobe-Pau-Odom 3 man trio, which worked mightily because Kobe was able to draw attention out on the perimeter because of the threat of his perimeter game. Kobe also had the added strength of the ability to split/breakdown defenses from the perimeter + hit shooters+ play the P & R roll as the guard in the situation, which would normally be left to a point guard. I can entertain an argument that Dirk was the more impactful offensive player, but I don't really see evidence for it. At worst, they are pretty much equal, but if anything, we see that healthy Kobe as a #1 on a team built around him has a slight edge over Dirk (if we are focusing on ORAPM), and Kobe demonstrated also he could be a elite #2 focal option.

Defensively, I will get to this point shortly, but to put it briefly, neither Kobe nor Dirk were high value defenders in the RS, in the sense that their defense was game-changing. To me, the success of a teams defense is heavily team orientated, and therefore using defensive indicators as trump cards IMO is insufficient. For example, after watching about 8-10 games or so from 06 Lakers, and then seriously considering some recaps of the games from other sources, it became evident to me that Kobe was not, either directly or indirectly, responsible for most/more than his fair share of the points the Lakers were giving up. His bad defensive plays were visually egregious, but then he also had some very good defensive plays during the games and upped his intensity late in games. Overall though, he simply wasn't involved much in the points being given up. On the flip side, per eye test (again, I find this to be far more valuable in examining defense, hence why I am troubled by KG's defensive indicators in 05/06) he ups his level of defensive intensity and attention in the PS, and is an above average team defender and man defender. Kobe also, if you watch closely in the PS, is constantly chirping on the court on the slide-line, giving tips to his teammates on that side of that ball. Pau noted Kobe's advice helped him out a lot. Make of that what you wish..

Kobe also had two elite defensive seasons (for a perimeter player that is), one of which he was a legit elite two way player, and was the teams most valuable defender all the way through to the PS. I'm not sure Dirk can make this claim at all, and given that they were generally not game-changer defenders, this matters to me.

I know many will suggest that my take on defense is hella subjective. And it is. But a long time ago, I lost all confidence in defensive indicators as telling me anything useful about what is going on in a game. And after examining the game tape, and seeing that Smush Parker and Brian Cook, two players who played a very high amount of minuted w Kobe (and also slow footed Chris Mihm who could only block shots sometimes), were two of the major culprits in the defensive breakdowns, my convictions were strengthened.

So for me, Dirk's RS defense does not move the needle for me, and in the PS, I don't see things shifting.

As for Kobe's strengths over Dirk. I will try and put things together, but in short. While both Dirk and Kobe were resilient playoff performances, Kobe IMO was slightly better (talking about their primes here). This gap widens little (though still not that large) when facing elite defenses (and by elite, I mean non- historically GOAT defensive teams, something that Kobe had to face 3 times in the playoffs- 04 Spurs/Pistons in the GOAT defensive era & 08 Celtics to Dirk's Nil). I also think Dirk for half of his prime, could be neutralized by long-ish athletic defenders, while I feel that prime Kobe could only be neutralized by very elite/GOAT like defensive teams.

Also Dirk's 06 finals performance, in which his team blew a 2-0 lead with HCA, being guarded by Udonis Haslem and James Posey, two dudes he had several inches on, and by a team who was not at all historically great on defense (like the 04 pistons, or the 08 Celtics- two teams Kobe faltered against) would count against him, as would the infamous 07 series with the Mavs as a #1 seed 65+ win team. He was getting doubled, sometimes trippled again, but he was being guarded by dudes who were undersized. I think Dirk's "low" moments are far more damaging than Kobe's "low moments". Again, just my opinion.

They are both great players IMO, and on an objective level, I can see someone making a good case for Dirk. But getting nitpicky, I think Kobe has the slight edge.


That's a fair response. I would say that, re: gravity, Dirk has more gravity when he doesn't have the ball, than Kobe does. And at Kobe's peak he probably had as much gravity on-ball, but I think the Dirk-effect was more imprinted on the game even when he didn't touch the ball as much. I'm also slightly lower on Kobe's defense than you are. I think he was mostly a negative when he was peaking offensively, so I think Dirk can gain ground there.

I'm not as low on Dirk's 2 or 3 playoff failures ( in 15 years of playoffs) as most, I guess. I don't see 06 as a particularly bad loss, though he had some awful shooting games (so did Kobe btw). And the 07 upset was bad, terrible matchup for them.

I think it's reasonably close for them, and I see a good case for Dirk.

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