RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#61 » by Bad Gatorade » Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:54 am

drza wrote:First, in '91, Isiah missed a lot of the season injured. Those that do the yearly in/outs point out that the Pistons didn't tank without Isiah, and this is useful to know. On the other hand, with Zeke playing roughly 3000 minutes per season the Pistons had been rock-solid around their average 110 O-Rtg for 7 years. I don't think it's coincidence that this season, with Zeke hobbling to only 1600 minutes and some change, they turned in their lowest mark since '83 (108.2 ORtg). That wasn't so steep of a decline on offense, but it was enough to have a definite negative impact on the win-loss record. The Defense was still strong, with Rodman winning his second straight DPoY while leading a stingy unit, but the magic was gone and the team won only "50" games.


Just thought I'd bump one of my other posts in the project here - not jumping to conclusions from this data or anything, just thought that I'd post this in response to the '91 stuff.

Interesting stat I just worked out on Isiah...

Isiah missed a bunch of games in 1990-91 (1 year after the back to back titles). So, what I did was calculate some stats with the 39 games he played (prior to injury), the 34 games he missed and ignored the 9 games after he returned from injury (I felt like this was fair - this was against his toughest opposition of the season too). This is the most consistent streak that goes beyond arbitrary single game samples in other seasons, so I thought I'd look at it a bit more.

Looked at Net ORTG and Net DRTG for when Isiah played and when Isiah didn't play. In other words, these are adjusted for opponent -

With Isiah:
27-12 record (22 of 39 games played at home)
Net ORTG: +0.2
Net DRTG: -4.3

Without Isiah:
19-15 record (14 of 34 games played at home)
Net ORTG: +1.0
Net DRTG: -1.1

Now, this reeks of small sample size theatre (39 and 34 games are not very much), but I found the results fascinating - there was literally zero drop off on offence - in fact, there was a slight increased facilitated by offensive rebounding. Rather, there was a notable improvement on defence. Net rating was +4.5 in Isiah games, and +2.1 in non-Isiah games.

So, the team was (again, in a limited sample) a bit better with Isiah, but the actual split of offence/defence was fascinating here.

Any explanations that can help me out?

a) Does this help provide credence to the idea that Isiah is positive for his team's culture if he's not known for his defence, but his team performed quite a bit better defensively with him?
b) Does Isiah's inefficiency (in the regular season anyway) actually hurt his teams more than we realise?
c) Is a lot of this simply due to replacements - was this Vinnie Johnson? Who replaced Vinnie Johnson off the bench?

See, I'm almost entirely happy to dismiss much of these movements as sample size, but it's also leading me to ponder whether or not a few of these hypotheses have some credence.
I use a lot of parentheses when I post (it's a bad habit)
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#62 » by trex_8063 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:23 am

JoeMalburg wrote:For those of you with at least 1 foot in the Patrick Ewing camp, I would like you to reconcile a few things for me. Don't look at this as a challenge, but merely a question in need of an answer…

The Knicks became elite defensively in 1992 when Pat Riley took over his coach and remain so through the Jeff Van Gundy era. During that time they declined from slightly above average to below average offensively. In that time, they swapped a lot of offensive players (Gerald Wilkins, Xavier McDaniel etc) for better all-around players, especially physical defensive guys. They remained very good to elite and defense even after Ewing declined in the late 90s. Why then does Patrick Ewing get the lion share of the credit? And, consequently, shouldn't he also absorb some of the blame for the teams failings on offense, or in the least, should his defense of impact be considered less then because so many other Knicks players during the Riley/JVG era were defensive oriented?

And at the end of the day, how much does it matter that he never got the team over the top?



In reply I wanted to review how some of these teams performed defensively, in light of the cast present. I'm going to start in the 90's (just to save time), btw; they were above average defensively in '88 and '89, too, fwiw. Of the defensive four factors (DREB%, opp eFG%, opp TOV%, and opp FTr), I may occasionally spotlight the DREB% and opp eFG% because (for obvious reasons), those are the factors a rim-protecting center like Ewing can have the MOST influence on.


‘90 Knicks
Mediocre coaching, imo, and no real sophisticated defense schema going on yet. The Knicks had no back-up center this season (and this is before the era of small-ball). Oakley (minutes somewhat staggered with Ewing’s) I believe often filled that role the ~10 mpg that Ewing sits; during which they’d generally have Kenny Walker---undersized, mediocre defensively and poor on the defensive glass---filling in at PF; he was also the primary PF when Ewing was on but Oakley was off.
A backcourt of Mark Jackson, Gerald Wilkins, limited minutes of aging Mo Cheeks (was a late-season acquisition), and Trent Tucker is [imo] average defensively.
Johnny Neuman was the starting SF (mediocre halfcourt defender, I think, though I don't remember him much other than he was a skinny/lanky dude who could shoot decent in the midrange; terrible rebounding SF though-->avg just 3.0 reb/36 min).

This team managed a -0.1 rDRTG (13th/27), although it needs to be noted that Oakley missed 21 games that season (again: Walker filling in). Knicks were a +2.0 rDRtg in the 21 games Oakley missed; -0.8 rDRtg in the 61 games Oakley was around for. So that -0.8 rDRTG (would have been 11th/27) is more representative of what this line-up (led by Ewing and Oakley) was doing. There are 96 PF/C minutes to be filled per game; considering Ewing and Oakley are accounting for ~74 of them, that still leaves ~22 mpg to be filled by someone else. If we're talking about the entire frontcourt (SF included), Ewing/Oakley are only accounting for ~74 of 144 mpg. That's a considerable amount of other minutes being played by BAD defensive frontcourt players (because Ewing and Oakley are literally the ONLY two frontcourt players worth their salt in that line-up). And the backcourt and coaching are only mediocre at best. All things considered, I don't view a -0.8 rDRTG as a major failure. A minor underachievement at worst.


‘91 Knicks
The defensive situation in the backcourt is marginally improved by having aging (34 years old) Mo Cheeks for the whole season, and thru the acquisition of John Starks (still a bench role player at this stage, though).
But otherwise defense at the SF position gets worse, as Kiki Vandeweghe was the starting SF: he avg 2.4 rpg (only 2.7 reb/36 min…..as a 6’8” SF; that’s abysmal), and is imo on the All-Time All-NO Defensive Team. Just didn't give a damn on that end.

They mostly don’t have a back-up center again, except for career scrub (and weak defensively) Eddie Lee Wilkins, +/- limited minutes of scrub Jerrod Mustaf; either that or they may have the occasional staggering of Oakley’s and Ewing’s minutes to have Oakley fill the role when Ewing sits. Backing up Oakley there’s again Kenny Walker and aforementioned scrub Jerrod Mustaf.
In short, their defensive frontcourt goes to hell any time Ewing and/or Oakley has to sit, and there’s the ever-present gaping hole at the SF position with Kiki there. Considering ONLY those frontcourt players outside of Ewing and Oakley, I would say this frontcourt supporting cast is even WORSE defensively than they were in '90.
And like previous year, there’s not really a strong or clever defensive strategist coaching the team. This team managed a -0.6 rDRTG. That's a small or marginal defensive underachievement by Ewing/Oakley at worst, imo.


‘92 Knicks
Riley comes in and institutes a decidedly more focused and grinding defensive strategy/mentality. Kiki has been relegated to limited minutes off the bench (though the team still must “sustain” ~14 mpg of his inept defense). Xavier McDaniel has been brought in to replace Kiki; X-man is not a great defensive talent, but is at least a strong and physical SF, rebounds reasonably well, and doesn’t blatantly back down from his defensive responsibilities like Kiki did. Also brought in to provide a solid defensive presence at the SF/PF/C position off the bench is Anthony Mason.
The backcourt is perhaps slightly above average with Mark Jackson (capable, but not great) at PG, Gerald Wilkins at SG (mediocre defensively), and Starks (pretty good defensively) and Greg Anthony (capable) coming off the bench.
This team performed as a -4.0 rDRTG (2nd/27) in the rs, and actually was -6.4 rDRTG (relative to ORtg’s faced) in the playoffs.
Centering more specifically on Ewing’s contributions, they were 5th/27 in opp eFG%, 1st/27 in DREB%.


‘93 Knicks
Somewhat still lacking in a true back-up center, except for limited games/minutes of aging Herb Williams (capable defender) filling part of the void. Otherwise again shifting Oakley (and/or Mason) into a center role when Ewing sits. But that’s the big thing that's different now: a fairly developed (at least defensively) Anthony Mason can now fill in if you shift Oakley to center, so essentially they ALWAYS have a solid defensive presence at BOTH big-man positions at all times.
They also now have a somewhat oversized shot-blocking presence at the SF in Charles Smith (who in certain match-ups can play PF or even C on defense).
The backcourt is now the (very capable) Doc Rivers at PG, John Starks (very good defensively) at SG, and Greg Anthony (capable) coming off the bench, though a few relative weak spots at the SG/SF in guys like aging Rolando Blackman, Hubert Davis, and Tony Campbell (not awful, but none of them good defensively).
This cast managed an historically awesome [more below on how historically] -8.3 rDRTG. They were #1 in the league in BOTH opp eFG% and DREB%.
And fwiw, they took a juggernaut Bulls team 6 games deep in the ECF (the Bulls had swept their first two opponents, and only took 6 games to finish off a very talented Suns team, remember).


‘94 Knicks
Same basic line-up as in ‘93, except Rivers misses most of the season with injury, but nearing mid-season they acquire 32-year-old Derek Harper (still fairly good defensively) to fill the void. Charles Smith also misses a lot of games, but Anthony Bonner helps fill the void (not as good defensively as Smith, iirc, but a beast on the offensive glass). NOTE: John Starks (their best backcourt defender) misses 23 games this season.
They still managed another historically awesome -8.1 rDRTG (again: #1 in league in both DREB% and opp eFG%).


Now I’ve mentioned that those were historically awesome defenses, and I want to delve into HOW awesome they were.

Well, we’ve got 66 NBA seasons in which team ORtg/DRtg is noted, and there’s anywhere from 8 to 30 teams in each of those seasons. I counted them up it amounts to 1395 teams over 66 years. Out of those 1395 teams, only EIGHT have ever managed a rDRTG as good as -8.0 or better. But four of those were Bill Russell teams; and many people like to speculate that no single player (even Bill Russell) would be capable of that level of defensive impact in a modern context.
So I'd further note that in the 48 seasons since Bill Russell retired, there have been 1238 teams, and only four of them have ever achieved a rDRTG of -8 or better. That's just over 0.3%; even in a league of 30 teams, that averages out to about ONE team every 11-12 years. The Knicks (with Ewing as anchor) did it two years in a row.

These types of defenses DO NOT happen without an all-time great level defensive center in the middle. The other centers who ever anchored such a defense are Bill Russell (4 times), Kevin Garnett (once), and Tim Duncan (once).

One can try to counter that Ewing had a lot of defensive help (Oakley, Mason, Starks, Harper), and they'd be right. But that's basically true of any of the other anchors of this level of team defense, too (even Russell, really: KC Jones, Havlicek, Loscutoff, Sam Jones was capable). Garnett had Tony Allen, James Posey, Pierce was capable, Perkins was decent defensively (and Thibs system). Duncan had Bruce Bowen, and guys like Horry, Ginobili, and Nestorovic were decent defensively.


wrt the Knicks defense maintaining strong even as Ewing appeared to go into decline (and I'd note that this includes after both Oakley and Mason have departed).......
While you seem to be implying that might be a strike against him (i.e. maybe it wasn't really him anchoring these defenses), I'd potentially take the opposite tack and count that as a point in his favor (i.e. he was still a fairly capable defensive anchor even in the early stages of decline, and somewhat portable from system to system).
As late as '99, Ewing still appears more than capable defensively. He had pretty good defensive help that year: Kurt Thomas, young Marcus Camby, and Chris Dudley in the frontcourt. Sprewell was a good defensive SG, and iirc Charlie Ward (at PG) was decent defensively too.
That team managed a -4.7 rDRTG (4th/29). I'd note, however, that Ewing missed 12 games that season. They were a -2.8 rDRTG in those 12 games; they were a -5.3 rDRTG (would have been 2nd/29) in the 38 games he played in.
I'd previously noted how that team performed as a -7.1 rDRTG (relative to the ORtg's they were facing) in the playoffs, too. And while Ewing missed the last 4 games of the ECF and ALL of the Finals, it was mostly in the early rounds (when he was present) that their defense was the most impressive: -6.3 rDRTG in the 1st round, -11.2 rDRTG in the ECSF, -6.7 rDRTG in the ECF (Ewing present for 2 of 6 games); then -5.1 rDRTG in the finals.


So yeah, while coaching plays a role (and Pat Riley is brilliant), let's not lose sight of the fact that the coaches don't actually take the floor. Their job is to recognize the strengths of the players they have, and utilize them in a manner that optimizes his players' effectiveness......but it's still the players that are actually exerting that impact. Riley recognized he had an extraordinary defensive talent in Ewing, and set out to optimize that, realizing that was their best chance of winning.

And they came awfully damn close. As has been pointed out previously (by others, not just me):
*The '94 Knicks went 7 games with the Rockets in the Finals.
**They actually outscored the Rockets by 5 pts in the series.
***They lost game 7 by just six points with John Starks going 2-18 FG's, 0-11 3PA. As Clyde Frazier mentioned, if Starks doesn't pick that exact moment to have basically the worst game of his entire prime (he could still have a bad game....just not THAT bad), we'd very likely have seen a Knicks win and a title for Ewing.
====>Imagine how different the legacies of both Ewing and Hakeem might be if Starks hadn't had such a rotten game. Instead of these two great centers typically being separated by ~15 places, we'd likely see them separated by <5 places on most ATL's.


So anyway, this is as good a place as any to state that's still where my vote is going.

1st vote: Patrick Ewing
2nd vote: Kevin Durant


I could potentially be swayed off of Durant, toward Nash or maybe Pippen (Hondo?). But for now this is where I'm going.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#63 » by trex_8063 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:34 am

Thru post #62:

Kevin Durant - 5 (andrewww, Joao Saraiva, pandrade83, penbeast0, scabbarista)
Patrick Ewing - 4 (trex_8063, Hornet Mania, Dr Positivity, Clyde Frazier)
Steve Nash - 3 (2klegend, dhsilv2, LABird)
Stephen Curry - 3 (wojoaderge, oldschooled, Senior)
Elgin Baylor - 2 (Pablo Novi, Outside)
Clyde Drexler - 1 (JordansBulls)
Bob Cousy - 1 (euroleague)


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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#64 » by andrewww » Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:36 am

@senior

Would you group Ewing closer to the top tier bigs (WIlt/Russ/KAJ/Dream/Shaq/Duncan/Admiral/Moses) or closer to Mourning/Mutombo/Howard/Gilmore/Thurmond for comparison? Like you said, Ewing became more mechanical the older he got and was never really a good passer out of the post like say Duncan was even though Duncan never really racked up the assists either. He wasn't particularly fast either, so in many ways I have my doubts about considering him as a strong candidate at this juncture when you still have elite talents left on the table, especially KD/Curry.

I do believe Curry may be the biggest floor raiser here, but does his (relatively) short career value thus far mean someone like Nash is ahead for now?

Its worth noting that even though West was far ahead of his time, he actually couldn't dribble with his off hand. And like you said, Baylor's era did not preach efficiency like today, but at the same time would it be unfair to characterize him similar in mentality to Moses as a pitbull. Get shots up, rebound like crazy?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#65 » by andrewww » Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:39 am

twolves97 wrote:Great post and great analysis. The only thing that bugs me is this last statement. Nearly everyone needs a second star and you can't hold that against Ewing. He almost won without one in 94 which is really impressive. Jordan needed Pippen, Kareem needed Oscar and Magic(and vice versa), Bird needed McHale, Lebron needed Wade, Bosh, Kyrie, and Love, even peak Shaq needed Kobe. If peak Shaq (GOAT peak imo) couldn't even win on his own then it's an impossible standard to hold others to.


I know what you mean by everyone needing support around them, I just feel that defense-first talents after the 60s require more talent around them to build a winner, and in the modern game a wing player who is capable of being both a scorer and playmaking anchor are extremely valuable.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#66 » by RCM88x » Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Vote: Scottie Pippen

In my opinion the GOAT perimeter defender, and one of the best passing Forwards of all time. Pippen posted an impressive prime run of 9 seasons from '90 to '98, averaging a BPM of 6.1 and a WS/48 of .173. He ranks an impressive 13th all time in career playoff WS, 18th in career average playoff BPM, and an insane 5th all time in playoff VORP.

In my opinion, probably the idea 2nd option. Doesn't need the ball to have an impact and when he does, is a 3 way threat to drive, pass or shoot.

2nd Vote: Patrick Ewing
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#67 » by THKNKG » Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:45 am

I don't completely understand why KD's 7 year prime is so highly rated when:

1) that's a short prime compared to some others

2) some (Curry) have a superior prime

3) Nash has an equally long prime and some solid pre+post prime years. He also was a) more effective at leading elite offenses (judging by team ORtg) b) more impactful (judging by RAPM). Defense is an argument to be had, but KD definitely hasn't been an elite defender for very long.

Could be looking at it from a faulty perspective, so I welcome responses.

1. Steve Nash
2. Patrick Ewing
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#68 » by Lou Fan » Thu Aug 10, 2017 4:17 am

Steph Curry and Nash again
smartyz456 wrote:Duncan would be a better defending jahlil okafor in todays nba
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#69 » by Senior » Thu Aug 10, 2017 4:29 am

andrewww wrote:Would you group Ewing closer to the top tier bigs (WIlt/Russ/KAJ/Dream/Shaq/Duncan/Admiral/Moses) or closer to Mourning/Mutombo/Howard/Gilmore/Thurmond for comparison? Like you said, Ewing became more mechanical the older he got and was never really a good passer out of the post like say Duncan was even though Duncan never really racked up the assists either. He wasn't particularly fast either, so in many ways I have my doubts about considering him as a strong candidate at this juncture when you still have elite talents left on the table, especially KD/Curry.

I'd have Ewing closer to the first group - none of the second group could manage the kind of volume that Ewing did, even if he wasn't a great passer. I could understand having him under Curry/Durant, Ewing to me seems like a top 30ish guy.

I do believe Curry may be the biggest floor raiser here, but does his (relatively) short career value thus far mean someone like Nash is ahead for now?

Depends on your criteria. If the longevity of two guys is relatively comparable and there aren't any major issues with playoff performance, the question I ask myself is who would I rather have for a playoff run. It's not crazy to take Nash, but my gut says I'd rather have Curry for a playoff run, even with the weird 2015/2016 years. Nash played 67 playoff games for Phoenix, Curry's at 75 for GS. Definitely close, though.
Its worth noting that even though West was far ahead of his time, he actually couldn't dribble with his off hand. And like you said, Baylor's era did not preach efficiency like today, but at the same time would it be unfair to characterize him similar in mentality to Moses as a pitbull. Get shots up, rebound like crazy?

Hard to say. Baylor didn't seem like a gunner, and I've never heard anything about him that suggested bad chemistry. I don't think there was any kind of ulterior mindset behind the way he played - he just played the way he thought he needed to, never mind chasing boards or shots.

I can't really agree with this 94 Finals hypothetical that's being used as a credit to Ewing. Yes, Starks had a terrible Game 7. But not only was he on fire in Game 6 (a game Ewing went 6/20 for 17 points in a 2 point loss, btw), the Knicks pushed the series to 7 despite Ewing having one of the worst offensive series of all-time. In the RS, Ewing was at 25/11/2.3, 55% TS, 38 MPG, 19 FGA. In the Finals, he went to 19/12/1.7, 39% TS in 44 MPG, 23 FGA. FTA went from 7.4 in the RS to 3 FTA in the Finals. RS ORTG of 108 down to 85 in the Finals. That's about as bad as it gets, and I'd be hard pressed to think of a team that can win with its leading scorer taking 23 FGA/game at 36% FG.

All this stuff about Starks having an unlucky bad game at the worst time ignores that Ewing was getting demolished out there for the entire series. Credit the Knick defense (led by Ewing) for keeping their team in it despite Ewing's own horrific offense, but Starks can't take the fall here.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#70 » by drza » Thu Aug 10, 2017 5:40 am

Another throwback post, this one from 2014. I know that Pettit is already in, but I don't have him quite that high. And here, I'm using Pettit as a foil to describe that I see Elgin Baylor on that level as well. So, I'm posting this as an illustration for why Baylor maybe should be getting some attention right now. I'm also ready to vote, and though this post is about Baylor, I'll be voting Ewing again. I'm not clear on my secondary vote

Pettit vs Baylor: what's Pettit's case? (from 2014)

I've seen a lot of votes for Pettit in this thread, and I've seen others say that this spot is essentially between Pettit and Ewing. I've said all along that it's really hard to do cross-era comparisons, but Pettit has a contemporary still on the board that I'm struggling to see how he beats him. Keep in mind, a lot of this stems from my last few posts where I looked harder at the box score stats (late last night) after previously looking again at Pettit's postseasons vs his regular seasons. Taken together, Baylor just looks clearly better to me. But I'm definitely willing to be educated, for those that have Pettit as clearly the guy. But this is what I see:

Regular season, 10 year primes
Bob Pettit 1956 - 1965: 27 pts (51.3% TS), 16.5 reb, 3.0 ast (TO not kept)
Elgin Baylor 1959 - 1968: 28.1 pts (49.1% TS), 14.2 reb, 4.2 ast (TO not kept)

Playoffs, 10 year primes
Bob Pettit 1956 - 1965: 25.5 pts (50.1% TS), 14.8 reb, 2.7 ast (TO not kept)
Elgin Baylor 1959 - 1968: 30.7 pts (50.3% TS), 14.1 reb, 3.9 ast (TO not kept)

First, theer's not much need for pace adjustment here because those 10-year peaks almost completely overlapped outside of Pettit's 3-year head start. So if we just go macro and look at box scores, it certainly looks to me like Baylor is pretty clearly the more impressive of the 2. Pettit had small advantages in efficiency and rebounds in the regular season (vs. Baylor's small advantages in scoring volume and assists), but in the postseason Baylor improved his volume and efficiency while Pettit slid with the end result that Baylor seems to outperform him significantly in the postseason. Am I mis-reading this?

Accolades
I hear a lot about Pettit's 2 MVPs, his First Team All NBA finishes every season, and the championship that his team won over the Celtics. But again, even a cursory look indicates that these aren't really boons in comparison to Baylor. Baylor, too, was All NBA First Team every year during his 10-year prime. Which leaves the MVPs and the championship. So let's look closer at them:

Petit's first MVP in 1956
None of Russell, Wilt, Oscar, Baylor or West are in the league yet so (in a comparison with Baylor) it's fair to question whether Pettit's '56 would have been MVP-worthy just a few years later when Baylor was peaking. Also, look at Pettit's postseason that year:

Pettit in 1956
Reg: 25.7 ppg (50.2% TS), 16.2 reb, 27.3 PER (led NBA), .236 WS/48
Post: 19.1 ppg (48.2% TS), 10.5 reb, 21.5 PER, .108 WS/48

Pettit's production went through the floor that postseason. In his peak, Baylor never had a postseason this poor. So despite Pettit's regular season MVP (on a below .500 team) (at a time in between superstar talents), I don't see this season as anything that would give him an advantage over Baylor.

Hawks Championship year 1958
The fact that Pettit's Hawks beat Russell's Celtics is used as one of the big supports for Pettit's candidacy. However, upon closer examination: Russell was injured. That's not Pettit's fault, of course, but to me it takes the "he broke up Russell's dynasty!" card away from being played too hard. The Hawks that year were an 0.82 SRS team in the season (3rd out of 8 teams, well behind the Celtics' leading 5.02 SRS mark). So perhaps the narrative could be that Pettit dragged his average cast through the postseason to meet up with those Celtics, putting them in the right position to take advantage of Russell's injury?

But no, Pettit wasn't the one stepping up in the postseason to drag the average cast. It was Cliff Hagan who did that. 1958 playoffs;

1958 playoffs
Petit: 24.2 ppg (47.2% TS), 16.5 reb, 22.6 PER, .134 WS/48
Hagan: 27.7 ppg (57.6% TS), 10.5 reb, 27.5 PER, .312 WS/48

Hagan led the NBA in the 1958 playoffs in scoring, True Shooting Percentage, PER, FG% and WS/48. Essentially, he did in that championship run what I'd have expected Petit to do, and honestly I think superficial analysis leads many to believe that Petit in 1958 DID do what Hagan did. But he really didn't.

So again, let me be clear. The Hawks won the title, and Pettit will always have that Game 7. Those are great accomplishments, and not taking them away. But if I'm comparing Pettit with an era peer like Baylor, I don't see how that title should be used as a boost to Pettit's candidacy. In his peak, Baylor's postseasons were regularly stronger than the one that Pettit turned in and he didn't get the advantage of facing a Celtics squad with an injured Russell.

Pettit's 2nd MVP year: 1959
This is the last of the major accolade seasons that a cursory accolades count might use to rank Pettit ahead of Baylor. But again, in the words of the legendary Rafiki, "Look haaarder..."

Pettit won that MVP off his outstanding regular season performance, but rookie Elgin Baylor was right there with him finishing 3rd in the MVP vote. Baylor's Lakers, who just a season before were (by-FAR) the worst team in the NBA with 19 wins and a -5.79 SRS (next worst was 33 wins and -1.47 SRS) jumped up with rookie Baylor to a playoff-worthy 33 wins and -1.42 SRS (2nd in their division behind Pettit's Hawks with their 49 wins and +2.89 SRS). So it appears that the Hawks were clearly the better team, but in the regular season Rookie-of-the-year Baylor was very competitive with MVP Pettit. They were the two forwards on the All NBA 1st Team.

In the 1959 postseason as a whole Pettit's box score numbers were better than Baylor's:
Pettit: 27.8 ppg (50.4% TS), 12.5 reb, 22.9 PER, .188 WS/48
Baylor: 25.5 ppg (46.9% TS), 12.0 reb, 19.3 PER, .104 WS/48

However, Baylor led his 33-win Lakers to defeat Pettit's 49-win Hawks 4 - 2 in the Western Division Finals before eventually getting swept by the Celtics in the Finals (led by a fully healthy Bill Russell).

Again, my point here is not to say that Pettit didn't have a great season or that he didn't deserve his MVP. But if we're comparing with Baylor, and as a rookie that season Baylor was extremely competitive with Pettit in both the regular and postseason while leading his team to an upset victory over Pettit's Hawks...I just can't see how this season should be a feather in Pettit's hat.

Conclusion

Across their 10-year primes, it certainly looks to me like Baylor was competitive with Pettit in the regular season and clearly the better post-season performer. Pettit's accolades were deserved, but upon closer examination don't appear to give him any real advantage in this comp. So I ask again, for those voting Pettit here...what's his case over Baylor?

Vote: Patrick Ewing
2nd: Stephen Curry (not a confident vote)
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Re: With regards for Herb Williams 

Post#71 » by dhsilv2 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 6:48 am

Clyde Frazier wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
You can go back and look at my ewing vote in the last thread for detail, but I can't stress this enough: if starks simply has a bad game in game 7 of the 94 finals as opposed to the worst game of his career, ewing gets his ring and these questions aren't asked. Not to mention that very simply, he never had a consistent second option in his prime. If the knicks even had say an eddie jones level player during his best seasons, they very likely could've taken down jordan at least once.


Oakley gets grossly underrated. 91 was supposed to be Ewing peak, right? He had Jackson, Cheeks, Starks, and Vandeweghe too. That's just NOT a bad team or one lacking talent. Honestly I've always felt Oakley was the heart of the defense (other than the coaches), Ewing was the best chess piece.


Come on man. Oakley was great, no knick fan is underrating him. He wasn't CLOSE to a viable second option offensively, though. That's the key point here. Not to mention cheeks and vandeweghe were at the end of their careers. Context is always important. Also, ewing peaked in 89-90. If Riley showed up a few years earlier, that would've been ideal.


OK 90 vs 91.

Oakley imo was the heart of their defense. No he wasn't an offensive guy, but he was the emotional leader imo.

Yes Cheeks and kiki were at the ends of their career, but they were still quality players, especially in 90. The point being that sure he never had another star with him, but he always had deep well rounded rosters with quality guys around him. The thing is when you're not even a consistent top 5 player in your own era, you can only do so much. Ewing just wasn't good enough or at least good enough long enough to punch through. He might be a better player than I would rank him, but I look at his career and he's not a top 30 guy.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#72 » by Outside » Thu Aug 10, 2017 6:57 am

Interesting that Durant and Curry are getting this much traction. Between the two, Curry is higher on my list. He has the shorter longevity, and his first three years had limited impact due to coaches, incompatibility and tension with Monta, ankle injuries, and getting used to the league (especially physically), but his most recent five seasons are an exhibition of how huge one player's impact can be. So the question becomes this -- do you value Durant's very good impact over a longer span, or Curry's exceptional impact over a shorter span? In my mind, Curry wins that contest. His 2015-16 RS was one for the ages, and it's a shame he got hurt in the playoffs.

I don't have either of them this high (Curry at 31 at Durant at 44), but my list is still fluid.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#73 » by dhsilv2 » Thu Aug 10, 2017 7:12 am

drza wrote:
Across their 10-year primes, it certainly looks to me like Baylor was competitive with Pettit in the regular season and clearly the better post-season performer. Pettit's accolades were deserved, but upon closer examination don't appear to give him any real advantage in this comp. So I ask again, for those voting Pettit here...what's his case over Baylor?



Using playoff stats is nice and all, but did you look at how they played in each series?

pettit was unquestionably the best player on his team in 58. The first round was a 5 game series and it wasn't as close as that would indicate. Pettit averaged 18 to cliff's 31 a game. People do this often, they ignore that some players don't force the issue if their team is doing well. Now when the finals came around and they needed each player's best.

Pettit 29.3 17 2.2
Cliff 25.2 9.7 3.5

Game 5 and 6 were 1 possession games. In these two key games

5
Pettit 33 21
Cliff 31 13

6
Pettit 50 19
Cliff 15 6

I think it's a completely dishonest case when people try and look at those playoffs and make a case that Pettit was the clear leader and best player on his team. his box scores remind me a lot of Tim Duncan's over his career. Duncan would put up his most underwhelming stats in games his team won big. His offense would pick up when the other guys weren't able to get it going. This looks to be how Pettit played.

As for the rest, it seems you don't value being the best in your year or era. Thus Ewing getting your vote here. Baylor to me is a guy who was really good, but he was never the best guy in the league and he didn't win a title. Ultimately a career is sometimes about some dumb luck, but at the same time, sometimes there are things outside of the box score that matter. I can't quantify those things, but people who win title seem to often have something extra. Anyway I agree we're close to Baylor's time. I don't get why you have a guy like Ewing over him. I'll be pushing for Baylor in the next 5-6 and I'll start looking at Ewing around 40 (I suspect he'll be in by then).
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#74 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Aug 10, 2017 8:08 am

drza wrote:Across their 10-year primes, it certainly looks to me like Baylor was competitive with Pettit in the regular season and clearly the better post-season performer. Pettit's accolades were deserved, but upon closer examination don't appear to give him any real advantage in this comp. So I ask again, for those voting Pettit here...what's his case over Baylor?

Vote: Patrick Ewing
2nd: ????


Baylor's first 5 years may be as good as Pettit's or better, the argument against him is the next 5 or 6 after his knee surgery are not as strong as Pettit's. From 64-70 Baylor finishes 15th, 25th, 51st, 21st, 17th, 20th, 26th in Win Shares in a small league and shoots too much considering his inefficiency compared to West and the league as a whole. He continues to make 1st team All-NBAs but the comp isn't at this position, and in MVP vote he gets 3rd in 68 and 5th in 69 when his efficiency under BVBK system improves, but misses the other years in the 60s. Personally I don't know if 64-70 Baylor is playing at even a top 50 all time level.

So assuming the 2nd half of his career is worse than Pettit's, the argument for Baylor would be to need to have first 5 years as hands down better to make up for it. Pettit's record in the first 5 years in both MVP vote and WS (WS/48) is better than Baylor's first 5. You mentioned that his first MVP is weak, but beating Russell with a worse record for the 2nd one is highly impressive. Then there's 61 where Pettit finishes 2nd but it's an impressive 2nd as he's ahead of Wilt, Baylor and Oscar. Someone in the last thread used the example of saying Baylor's 35/20/5 in 1961 looks better than Pettit's 28/20/3, but Pettit was ahead of him in both WS and MVP voting that season. He finished ahead in WS cause he was more efficient and was credited in DWS for the Hawks being the 2nd best defensive team in the league. I don't know who had better season but I certainly am not going to jump to the conclusion that the higher PPG player is automatically better here. Then there's looking beyond the boxscore to what type of impact they may make, but while Baylor was a playmaking wing (But who also used high pace, minutes and crazy shooting volume to get his assists) which has value, Pettit being the original floor spacing PF adds non boxscore value as well.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#75 » by Joao Saraiva » Thu Aug 10, 2017 9:09 am

1st vote Kevin Durant
I think he's the best player available. One of the greatest scorers ever to play the game, good rebounder for his position and good defender too. He really progressed in that department.

Has proved he can carrry a bad cast (OKC 14) to relative success, and that he can also be the primary ball handler (in that situation) or adapt and play more off ball (OKC 12 or GSW 16 have tons of examples where he does it).

2nd vote Steve Nash
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#76 » by Doctor MJ » Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:24 am

Vote: Steve Nash
Alt: Patrick Ewing

I've been voting for Nash. For the alt I was debating between Ewing and Curry.

As I was deciding about Nash relative to Ewing the thing I was trying to remember was Ewings effective longevity. He ended ignominiously, and stat-wise he really had just one year at his best with other years in a questionable role.

I was surprised to see that in spite of Nash having the slow start - heavily influenced by the fact he wasn't handed opportunity like Ewing was - he still topped Ewing in total Win Shares, a stat that considerably underrated Nash.

That makes the choice of Nash over Ewing fairly easy for me. More clear, for example, than the one over Curry because Currys peak gives him an argument over almost anyone.

But gun to my head this moment, I just am having a tough time ignoring Ewings longevity edge over Curry. Obviously I'll have Curry over plenty of others with longer careers, but I really do feel like up until very recently most would agree you'd draft a Ewing prospect ahead of a Curry prospect even without the longevity edge we consider in our retro studies. I'm keeping Ewing ahead of Curry for the moment.


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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#77 » by scrabbarista » Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:12 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
scrabbarista wrote:To mod:

I changed my vote from Hondo and KD to now KD and Wade (edited in the original post already).


Wade was voted in at #22. I post the list to this point in the OP of every single thread; not sure how I can make it easier to know who's still on the table.


Sorry, I'm being ridiculous. I'm changing Wade to Patrick Ewing. KD is still my first vote.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#78 » by rebirthoftheM » Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:33 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
JoeMalburg wrote:For those of you with at least 1 foot in the Patrick Ewing camp, I would like you to reconcile a few things for me. Don't look at this as a challenge, but merely a question in need of an answer…

The Knicks became elite defensively in 1992 when Pat Riley took over his coach and remain so through the Jeff Van Gundy era. During that time they declined from slightly above average to below average offensively. In that time, they swapped a lot of offensive players (Gerald Wilkins, Xavier McDaniel etc) for better all-around players, especially physical defensive guys. They remained very good to elite and defense even after Ewing declined in the late 90s. Why then does Patrick Ewing get the lion share of the credit? And, consequently, shouldn't he also absorb some of the blame for the teams failings on offense, or in the least, should his defense of impact be considered less then because so many other Knicks players during the Riley/JVG era were defensive oriented?

And at the end of the day, how much does it matter that he never got the team over the top?



In reply I wanted to review how some of these teams performed defensively, in light of the cast present. I'm going to start in the 90's (just to save time), btw; they were above average defensively in '88 and '89, too, fwiw. Of the defensive four factors (DREB%, opp eFG%, opp TOV%, and opp FTr), I may occasionally spotlight the DREB% and opp eFG% because (for obvious reasons), those are the factors a rim-protecting center like Ewing can have the MOST influence on.


Great breakdown with regards to the shifting defense in New York. Like these year by year brief breakdowns instead of aggregate averages.

And although, you did address it, I still think your breakdown kind of supports the contention that we should be relatively conservative when talking about team defensive successes. Jumping from barely above average defenses to absolute historical levels in a matter of 2 years, with the same dude anchoring the middle and playing 80 games and above each year, says to me that we need to be conservative with crediting him.

I mean, does a historical parallel for an elite offensive anchor exist? I highly doubt it. That type of jump given Ewing's consistent presence is too hard to ignore. Would love to see on/off and primitive DRAPM figures to see what was going on there, particularly when Ewing sat pre-Riley.

If Riley did indeed utilize Ewing much more effectively, leading to much higher defensive impact, then this would too be an indictment on him.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#79 » by ceiling raiser » Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:39 pm

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Now that's the difference between first and last place.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #26 

Post#80 » by Winsome Gerbil » Thu Aug 10, 2017 2:17 pm

After considerable thought I'm going to muck with my order again:

1) Patrick Ewing
2) Kevin Durant

which really begins to push the defensive (Pippen) and offensive (Nash) specialists down toward #30, and threatens near disrespect for the Baylor/Havlicek/Drexler/Barry pack. But Ewing, Durant, and the underrated Barry are three of the most one-man-carry-the-load "franchisey" guys left. I didn't expect to take Ewing quite this early, or Pippen quite this late, but I've come back around a bit to my natural and consistent preference for franchise players rather than #2s, and for Ewing's massive defensive edge over anybody in the range except Pippen.

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