RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #48 (Pau Gasol)

[dhsilv2]

Also seems like the longevity thing is used unfairly against modern guys further down the list while it's much less of a factor toward the top and for retired players. For instance, Shaq is placed below Magic despite having similar (arguably better) per-game production in 1200 games to Magic's 900 whereas someone like Pau Gasol who almost no one would argue is on Westbrook's level at peak is given more than twice as much credit for playing 1200 games to Westbrook's 700. I think if Westbrook were to retire tomorrow and voters came back to this list in 10 years, he would be ranked much higher.

*checks*

No, I can show Magic had a better per game value add in his 900 games than shaq's 1200. That also matches watching the two. And I'm not support Gasol here, but to claim he's got not augment over westbrook, really?

[iggymcfrack]

Also seems like the longevity thing is used unfairly against modern guys further down the list while it's much less of a factor toward the top and for retired players. For instance, Shaq is placed below Magic despite having similar (arguably better) per-game production in 1200 games to Magic's 900 whereas someone like Pau Gasol who almost no one would argue is on Westbrook's level at peak is given more than twice as much credit for playing 1200 games to Westbrook's 700. I think if Westbrook were to retire tomorrow and voters came back to this list in 10 years, he would be ranked much higher.

With Magic and Shaq a lot of Shaq's extra games come post prime, I think a lot of us mainly care about prime. Magic plays 12 seasons before HIV retirement while Shaq's 12th season is 04 which by some argument is already past his prime. He adds value after that but I see the difference in Pau and Westbrook longevity to be much more dramatic where he basically doubles him in prime seasons. Pau was the more polished rookie and had better stats off the bat, but even If we say neither player was likely impacting the game a ton the first two years since most rookies/sophomores don't, Pau makes the 2016 all-star game 13 seasons after that. Westbrook has had 7 seasons since his sophomore year. Plus the first four of those, he wasn't even for sure better than prime Pau, they were both championship level 2nd options. It's really only been 3 years since he became an MVP level player above and beyond Pau. Now I say all that as someone who would vote for Westbrook over Pau since I think those 3 seasons make a huge difference, but I can see the argument that Pau's longevity would be valued by someone more than Westbrook surpassing him for 3 seasons

In Shaq's 13th season, he had a 27.0 PER, finished 2nd in the MVP vote, and won a ring. It may be past his absolute peak but it's pretty damn good. You could make an argument that it's better than any season Magic had in his entire career.

[Outside]

In Shaq's 13th season, he had a 27.0 PER, finished 2nd in the MVP vote, and won a ring. It may be past his absolute peak but it's pretty damn good. You could make an argument that it's better than any season Magic had in his entire career.

Shaq's 13th season was his first in Miami, 2004-05. He did have a 27.0 PER and was second in the MVP vote, but San Antonio won the title that year. Miami lost to Detroit in the EC finals.

Regarding your statement that you can make the argument that his 2004-05 season was better than any season Magic had -- Shaq had numerous seasons better than that one. By inference, it sounds like you're saying that Shaq had 6-8 seasons better than any season Magic ever had. Is that right?

[LA Bird]

Run off vote: Pau Gasol

Both are too early for me so this is more so a vote against Reed than a vote for Gasol. Reed's peak was not spectacular enough to overcome his weak longevity. Within his own era, I don't see Reed being better than Thurmond, Unseld or Lanier. Maybe Cowens as well depending on how much one value individual scoring efficiency vs passing ability for big men and probably even Bellamy depending on one's criteria. Gasol has weaknesses of his own and I would take Parish ahead of him if we are taking a longevity big but his positional versatility and offensive skillset is fairly special for a big man. His addition of a 3pt shot the last few seasons is interesting and if not for rule changes in 2014, Gasol would actually have the all time NBA record in 3pt% last season.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #64:

Pau Gasol - 6 (LABird, SactoKingsFan, trex_8063, Doctor MJ, pandrade83, penbeast0)
Willis Reed - 5 (Dr Positivity, Outside, Winsome Gerbil, dhsilv2, Clyde Frazier)

Will leave it open another hour or two.

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[janmagn]

Runoff vote: Willis Reed

Played in an era where many dominant, all-time great centers played, and was a MVP and led his team to championships, winning FMVP

Lähetetty minun LG-M250 laitteesta Tapatalkilla

[THKNKG]

Runoff vote: Pau Gasol

I have much fewer questions about the period he played in, he played at a high level much longer, and I'm not convinced that the heights of Reed's peak are enough to overcome that. Plus, Gasol is one of the greatest potential "number twos" that have played the game, which is a really valuable thing.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #67:

Pau Gasol - 7 (LABird, SactoKingsFan, trex_8063, Doctor MJ, pandrade83, penbeast0, micahclay)
Willis Reed - 6 (Dr Positivity, Outside, Winsome Gerbil, dhsilv2, Clyde Frazier, janmagn)

Calling it for Pau. Will have the next thread up in a moment.

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[trex_8063]

Seems like some weird runoff candidates for me. If you're looking for a modern offense-first player, surely Westbrook just coming off one of the greatest offensive seasons of all-time finishing Top 4 in the MVP vote the last 3 years is better than Pau Gasol who never made first-team all-NBA or had any MVP shares whatsoever. If you're looking for a defensive anchor from the early 2000s, surely Ben Wallace who had a season leading the league in RAPM and was the best player on a team that won a championship is better than Mutombo who only really seemed to be a major impact player a couple years in Philly.

It's a fair question to ask (and fwiw, I think Westbrook would be totally valid here as well). I'm as longevity-minded as anyone on this forum, though, so there's just a couple guys I'm plugging for before I'll lend my support to Westbrook (now that Pau's in, I'll be giving my alternate vote to either Westbrook or Iverson).

There's some interesting food for thought regarding longevity in thread currently on the front page (I think) about "Elgee's WOWY GOAT-list" or some such, btw. Elgee's Championship Odds studies also have interesting insights on meaningful longevity.

But I'll offer one other simpler way to consider the longevity gap between someone like Pau and Westbrook. It centers around the stat BPM:

BPM loves Westbrook, about as much as any stat has ever "loved" any player. Granted this stat is only available AFTER 1973, but Westbrook has two of the top 10 rs BPM's ever recorded, having twice led the league and had the greatest rs BPM [by far] this season at +15.55 (2nd all-time is +12.99). He also led the league in playoff BPM this year (+13.08, which is the 6th-highest ever recorded; and he has two of the top 15).
So this stat rates him quite favorably. Extrapolated directly from BPM (it's basically "BPM x minutes") is VORP (value over replacement player; replacement player standardized as BPM of -2.0, iirc).

As BPM rates Westy so well, by it's very construct, VORP naturally will as well. And yet here are their respective VORP's:

Westbrook career rs: +48.5
Pau career rs: +54.2

Westbrook career ps: +7.6
Pau career ps: +7.7


Obviously VORP does not remotely summarize my criteria, but I just wanted to use this one for illustrative purposes: BPM rates Westbrook better than any other stat (and indeed, practically as good as any stat rates any player), and VORP is the cumulative expression of that stat.......but he's still slightly behind Pau in it.

It's still perfectly valid to favor the higher peak in a relatively close contest.


And fwiw, I suspect the fact that Westbrook's impact indicators lag a bit behind his box-based production probably is working against him a little (not necessarily against P.Gasol specifically, but in a more general sense).