RealGM 2017 Top 100 #98 (Bill Walton)

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #98: RUNOFF! Walton vs Daniels 

Post#61 » by trex_8063 » Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:10 pm

pandrade83 wrote:
I summed the playoff games with detailed box scores from the '73 Finals (won by Indy in 7).

Daniels: 16.1 ppg, 13.3 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.9 tovpg, 4 fouls per game, 2 bpg, 0.3 spg, 44.5% TS
Gilmore: 22.1 ppg, 17.3 rpg, 5.3 apg, 3.4 tovpg, 4.4 fouls per game, 4 bpg, 0.3 spg, 56% TS



I won't try to argue that Gilmore didn't outplay Daniels in that series (he did). However, we're comparing the guy who was voted in at #36 to the guy who might get voted in #98. Obv there's the large longevity discrepancy that goes into that; but even if Gilmore had retired in after '79 (so that his career was equal length), I'd wager we'd still have voted him top 80.

Additionally, realize it's debatable as to whether '73 is even still Daniels in his prime, while Gilmore is near peak form in '73. It's "late prime" at best for Daniels (at any rate it's only his 6th-best overall season), whereas '73 is likely Gilmore's 3rd-best.

So we're comparing the 3rd-best season of a guy likely voted in around 80th (if truncated his career to 8 seasons) to the 6th-best season of the guy who MIGHT get voted in #98. To some degree we should be expecting Gilmore to outplay him, no?

Additionally, it should be noted (since we're comparing per game volume): Daniels' volume came while playing 35.7 mpg; Gilmore's while averaging 45.9 mpg.
EDIT: So Gilmore's per 36 min numbers would be like-->17.4 pts, 13.6 reb, 4.2 ast, 2.7 tov, 0.2 stl, 3.1 blk, 3.5 pf; Daniels' would be 16.3 pts, 13.4 reb, 2.45 ast, 1.9 tov, 0.3 stl, 2.0 blk, 4.0 pf. Other than the TS%, that's not far off.


And this also doesn't consider some of the other talking points about Daniels per those who are closer to that era--->about Daniels being the emotional leader and unquestioned captain of that Pacer team. As highly as I think of Gilmore (I have him even higher than #36 all-time), I must admit one rarely (ever??) hears/reads those kinds of sentiments about him.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #98: RUNOFF! Walton vs Daniels 

Post#62 » by trex_8063 » Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:37 pm

Thru post #61:

Bill Walton - 5 (Doctor MJ, pandrade83, Outside, HeartBreakKid, euroleague)
Mel Daniels - 4 (trex_8063, Clyde Frazier, SactoKingsFan, penbeast0)


~16 hours till we conclude this runoff.


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"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #98: RUNOFF! Walton vs Daniels 

Post#63 » by pandrade83 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:39 am

trex_8063 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote:
I summed the playoff games with detailed box scores from the '73 Finals (won by Indy in 7).

Daniels: 16.1 ppg, 13.3 rpg, 2.4 apg, 1.9 tovpg, 4 fouls per game, 2 bpg, 0.3 spg, 44.5% TS
Gilmore: 22.1 ppg, 17.3 rpg, 5.3 apg, 3.4 tovpg, 4.4 fouls per game, 4 bpg, 0.3 spg, 56% TS



I won't try to argue that Gilmore didn't outplay Daniels in that series (he did). However, we're comparing the guy who was voted in at #36 to the guy who might get voted in #98. Obv there's the large longevity discrepancy that goes into that; but even if Gilmore had retired in after '79 (so that his career was equal length), I'd wager we'd still have voted him top 80.

Additionally, realize it's debatable as to whether '73 is even still Daniels in his prime, while Gilmore is near peak form in '73. It's "late prime" at best for Daniels (at any rate it's only his 6th-best overall season), whereas '73 is likely Gilmore's 3rd-best.

So we're comparing the 3rd-best season of a guy likely voted in around 80th (if truncated his career to 8 seasons) to the 6th-best season of the guy who MIGHT get voted in #98. To some degree we should be expecting Gilmore to outplay him, no?

Additionally, it should be noted (since we're comparing per game volume): Daniels' volume came while playing 35.7 mpg; Gilmore's while averaging 45.9 mpg.
EDIT: So Gilmore's per 36 min numbers would be like-->17.4 pts, 13.6 reb, 4.2 ast, 2.7 tov, 0.2 stl, 3.1 blk, 3.5 pf; Daniels' would be 16.3 pts, 13.4 reb, 2.45 ast, 1.9 tov, 0.3 stl, 2.0 blk, 4.0 pf. Other than the TS%, that's not far off.


And this also doesn't consider some of the other talking points about Daniels per those who are closer to that era--->about Daniels being the emotional leader and unquestioned captain of that Pacer team. As highly as I think of Gilmore (I have him even higher than #36 all-time), I must admit one rarely (ever??) hears/reads those kinds of sentiments about him.


I think I could get more behind this line of reasoning if the ABA wasn't consistently getting more competitive while Daniels was in the league. One of the reasons I'm not willing to support him for this project is that I'm skeptical that he would've had the level of effectiveness that would warrants discussion for this project had he not been in the ABA - Center was comparatively thin in the ABA til GIlmore came along - before that it was just Daniels & Beaty - and Beaty made a rather large leap himself coming over to the ABA after a year off. Daniels was also 28 when this series took place - he could hardly be called an old man or something like that.

I also take issue with the p36 stats because Daniels was limited to 28 minutes with 5 fouls in one game and limited to 18 with 4 fouls in game 7.

Quite frankly, that tells me that Daniels struggled to stay on the floor against Gilmore because of foul issues.

I'm obviously OK supporting shorter longevity candidates - especially at this juncture, but I need them to be higher quality players than Daniels.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #98: RUNOFF! Walton vs Daniels 

Post#64 » by LA Bird » Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:16 pm

Run off vote: Bill Walton

Despite the importance of longevity, I'll go with Walton here. He had a top 20 peak of all time and proved to be multiple tiers higher even if only for a very, very short period. I am simply not sold on Mel Daniels here. He was outshined at his peak by Beaty who was probably never more than a top 5 center in the NBA. Daniels also lacked longevity and failed to successfully transition to the NBA like every other ABA MVP winner did. His 2 MVPs look nice at face value but is far less impressive in context.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #98: RUNOFF! Walton vs Daniels 

Post#65 » by trex_8063 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 2:31 pm

Thru post #64:

Bill Walton - 6 (LABird, Doctor MJ, pandrade83, Outside, HeartBreakKid, euroleague)
Mel Daniels - 4 (trex_8063, Clyde Frazier, SactoKingsFan, penbeast0)


Walton takes it. Will have the next up in a minute.

Spoiler:
Ainosterhaspie wrote:.

eminence wrote:.

penbeast0 wrote:.

Owly wrote:.

HeartBreakKid wrote:.

Clyde Frazier wrote:.

PaulieWal wrote:.

Colbinii wrote:.

Texas Chuck wrote:.

drza wrote:.

Dr Spaceman wrote:.

fpliii wrote:.

euroleague wrote:.

pandrade83 wrote:.

Hornet Mania wrote:.

Eddy_JukeZ wrote:.

SactoKingsFan wrote:.

Blackmill wrote:.

JordansBulls wrote:.

RSCS3_ wrote:.

BasketballFan7 wrote:.

micahclay wrote:.

ardee wrote:.

RCM88x wrote:.

Tesla wrote:.

Joao Saraiva wrote:.

LA Bird wrote:.

MyUniBroDavis wrote:.

kayess wrote:.

2klegend wrote:.

MisterHibachi wrote:.

70sFan wrote:.

mischievous wrote:.

Doctor MJ wrote:.

Dr Positivity wrote:.

Jaivl wrote:.

Bad Gatorade wrote:.

Moonbeam wrote:.

Cyrusman122000 wrote:.

Winsome Gerbil wrote:.

Narigo wrote:.

wojoaderge wrote:.

TrueLAfan wrote:.

90sAllDecade wrote:.

Outside wrote:.

scabbarista wrote:.

janmagn wrote:.

Arman_tanzarian wrote:.

oldschooled wrote:.

Pablo Novi wrote:.

john248 wrote:.

mdonnelly1989 wrote:.

Senior wrote:.

twolves97 wrote:.

CodeBreaker wrote:.

dhsilv2 wrote:.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 #98 

Post#66 » by pandrade83 » Sun Mar 11, 2018 4:08 pm

[quote="pandrade83"]We're at the point where you're deciding to go with players who were outstanding for short periods of time ( Davis, Hawkins, Tiny, Daniels) or guys who were very good for a long time but it's hard to argue they were ever great (Divac, Bellamy, my candidate to be named, etc).

I've decided to go with the first group (and fwiw - if you're going the other way, I don't think it's unreasonable).

Now the first decision point is made, let's look at the candidates.

Daniels, & Hawkins achieved their fame in the ABA at a point where professional basketball was extremely diluted. When Daniels won his final title, there were 27 teams in pro hoops - that's as many as there were 20 years later. That's also when Tiny peaked - who never won a series except for the time he got to play with Bird, Parish & rookie McHale.

While I'm aware that the ABA was better in the 70's, this tape of the '68 ABA Finals leaves some things to be desired.




If you're going with a guy who had a very high but short lived peak - why not go with the guy who had the best of it?

Achieving a PER of 30+ puts you in rare territory. Here's the list of guys who have done this in the post-merger era.

MJ
Lebron
Robinson
Shaq
Steph
McGrady
Wade
Davis
Westbrook
Harden

Davis has 4 very strong years under his belt - which by the standards of this group is not bad - and with the exception of Hawkins I don't think anyone else even has a case that their peak is close to Davis.

Now, the knock on him is that he's never even won a playoff game - but the time he did make it, he delivered 31-11 & 3 blocks on 61% TS!

He played great - I don't put that loss on him.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Of the high peak, short longevity candidates, Davis is the last one I feel comfortable with right now.

My alternate candidate has the highest career WS of any post-merger player - Buck WIlliams.

Disclosing WIlliams' weaknesses right away - the box score paints him as a weak passer - though I don't believe he's a selfish player having watched him.
He also "led" the Nets to 3 straight 55+ loss seasons including one doozy where they went 19-63. I don't think any of the other high longevity candidates would've done materially better in that situation - but anyway - it's out there.

Williams' brings strong rebounding to the table - leading the league in REB% in '82, and finishing in the Top 5 in rebounds per game his first 7 years in the league.
Additionally, Williams was a strong defender, making all Defense 4 times. What's noteworthy about this, is that one of those appearances were for the 19-63 Nets; to earn All-Defense on that bad of a team, you truly have to have the voters' respect.

Although Williams' peak was with the Nets, he had a strong post-prime as well where he impacts some strong Blazer teams.

Portland was +0.2 & -0.6 in rel D Rating the two years before Williams' arrival & in the following 3 years - all years where Williams makes All-D, Portland finishes -3.7, -3.6 & -4.0 (Wayne Cooper & Cliff Robinson were also added during this period).

From an offensive standpoint, this video is a fair representation of how he scores - he moves well in transition and is strong finisher at the rim and he'll score on put backs.



Overall, Williams is a strong rebounding, strong defending forward who scores efficiently on moderate volume through hustle.

Let's look at Williams' place on the Win Share leaderboard is worth a look since I noted that he's #1 in post-merger players not in yet.

He generated 52% of his career Win Shares with the Nets - a franchise that didn't do anything for virtually all of the 80's & the '90's.

While in New Jersey, he was key in getting the Nets to the playoffs most years early on - his signature playoff moment was getting 18.4-15.2 with 3.4 blocks + steals on 60% TS against the defending champion Sixers in '84.

The lion's share of his remaining win shares came when he adapted to a new role on Portland from '90-'94 - taking on a smaller offensive role but becoming very impactful to the team's defense and being a key part of Portland's success during that era.

If you're looking at high longevity quality players who brought meaningful career value to the table, I think Williams is worth a look.

Primary: Davis
Alternate: Buck Williams

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