2018-19 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

Dr Spaceman · Post #61 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:07 pm

Harden currently owns the 4th highest scoring rate per 100 in NBA history. 87 Jordan, 06 Kobe, 17 Westbrook are the only ones ahead. The best efficiency among those is Jordan at .562. Harden’s at .619.

Harden is scoring at higher volume and slightly better efficiency than any Jordan season you can name. This might legitimately be the best offensive regular season in history.

HeartBreakKid · Post #62 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:36 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:Harden currently owns the 4th highest scoring rate per 100 in NBA history. 87 Jordan, 06 Kobe, 17 Westbrook are the only ones ahead. The best efficiency among those is Jordan at .562. Harden’s at .619.

Harden is scoring at higher volume and slightly better efficiency than any Jordan season you can name. This might legitimately be the best offensive regular season in history.

You think he's scoring at this rate for the whole season?

Dr Spaceman · Post #63 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 3:44 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:Harden currently owns the 4th highest scoring rate per 100 in NBA history. 87 Jordan, 06 Kobe, 17 Westbrook are the only ones ahead. The best efficiency among those is Jordan at .562. Harden’s at .619.

Harden is scoring at higher volume and slightly better efficiency than any Jordan season you can name. This might legitimately be the best offensive regular season in history.

You think he's scoring at this rate for the whole season?

Last year he had the 13th highest rate ever. It’s not a stretch.

He could drop a full 1 point/100 and still be 4th all time. We don’t yet know when Paul will come back and he’s been crap this year anyway. I think it’s quite likely he’ll have a top 10 scoring rate given last year he was 0.2 points/100 behind 9th place (16 Curry).

Reservoirdawgs · Post #64 » by **Reservoirdawgs** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:06 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:Harden currently owns the 4th highest scoring rate per 100 in NBA history. 87 Jordan, 06 Kobe, 17 Westbrook are the only ones ahead. The best efficiency among those is Jordan at .562. Harden’s at .619.

Harden is scoring at higher volume and slightly better efficiency than any Jordan season you can name. This might legitimately be the best offensive regular season in history.

I'm having a hard time seeing how 2019 Harden beats 2016 Steph Curry. 2016 Curry has a higher ORTG, OBPM, TS% on a higher 3PAr, etc. Harden is scoring 2 more points on almost 2 more FGAs. What makes 2019 Harden better than 2016 Curry?

Dr Spaceman · Post #65 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:42 pm

Reservoirdawgs wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:Harden currently owns the 4th highest scoring rate per 100 in NBA history. 87 Jordan, 06 Kobe, 17 Westbrook are the only ones ahead. The best efficiency among those is Jordan at .562. Harden’s at .619.

Harden is scoring at higher volume and slightly better efficiency than any Jordan season you can name. This might legitimately be the best offensive regular season in history.

I'm having a hard time seeing how 2019 Harden beats 2016 Steph Curry. 2016 Curry has a higher ORTG, OBPM, TS% on a higher 3PAr, etc. Harden is scoring 2 more points on almost 2 more FGAs. What makes 2019 Harden better than 2016 Curry?

He’s a much better passer IMO.

ardee · Post #66 » by **ardee** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:41 am

I didn't realize just how good Harden has been recently. He's probably cracked my top 5. Don't see why I'd have someone like Kawhi ahead of him.

Strangely, I think 4 of the top 5 I have right now would be the same as the consensus top 4 from last year, just not in the same order (LeBron, Harden, Davis and Giannis). The fifth spot is between Curry, Durant and Kawhi. I think Curry has been the best but he missed a third of the games so far... He's the better player but Durant has had the better season going by definite contributions.

So

1. Giannis
2. LeBron
3. Davis
4. Harden
5. Durant (caveat: Curry is better per game)

Lo and behold, it's the same five guys who were top 5 POY last year....

Post #67 » by **bondom34** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:45 am

So..I'm really starting to think about Lowry. Best offense in the NBA, with good defense, and a better on court O rating than Harden had last year on the best offense. He's doing what Harden's doing without counting stats and with defense IMO.

Dr Spaceman · Post #68 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:13 pm

bondom34 wrote:So..I'm really starting to think about Lowry. Best offense in the NBA, with good defense, and a better on court O rating than Harden had last year on the best offense. He's doing what Harden's doing without counting stats and with defense IMO.

It’s a good argument and I’m open to it; the problem with Lowry for me are that he has these stretches where he is strangely passive and goes through these horrible shooting slumps. And it’s something he’s done throughout his whole career. I think he’s very much a player who looks elite from a zoomed-out perspective (I.e. whole season impact metrics) but the cracks kinda show from a game to game perspective where some nights he gives you 4 points on 1/9 shooting or his recent 0 point, 0/5 performance. Harden doesn’t, and can’t afford to have games like that, at least during the regular season. Call it consistency I guess, but Lowry’s a little Ginobili-ish in that you don’t know what you’re getting on a game to game basis.

And I say this as a huge fan of the guy, I believe he was 4th in my POY ballot in 2016.

Post #69 » by **bondom34** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:41 am

Dr Spaceman wrote:
bondom34 wrote:So..I'm really starting to think about Lowry. Best offense in the NBA, with good defense, and a better on court O rating than Harden had last year on the best offense. He's doing what Harden's doing without counting stats and with defense IMO.

It’s a good argument and I’m open to it; the problem with Lowry for me are that he has these stretches where he is strangely passive and goes through these horrible shooting slumps. And it’s something he’s done throughout his whole career. I think he’s very much a player who looks elite from a zoomed-out perspective (I.e. whole season impact metrics) but the cracks kinda show from a game to game perspective where some nights he gives you 4 points on 1/9 shooting or his recent 0 point, 0/5 performance. Harden doesn’t, and can’t afford to have games like that, at least during the regular season. Call it consistency I guess, but Lowry’s a little Ginobili-ish in that you don’t know what you’re getting on a game to game basis.

And I say this as a huge fan of the guy, I believe he was 4th in my POY ballot in 2016.

That's fair, I would rather look at the overall and given how they look without him (not good) and with him (really good) I'd take it into account more. He might be top 2-3 for me right now which probably sounds nuts but after Giannis I don't have anyone definitely there just yet.

Dr Spaceman · Post #70 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:00 pm

Another 40 point game for Harden and Houston is now the 2nd best offense in the league. Per NBA.com they have a 116 ORTG in their last nine games since the Paul injury (2nd to the Spurs over that stretch). +8.0 net rating with a defense a bit above league average.

I don’t think I can field an argument for someone to be #1 over him at this point. The Rockets don’t really have much going for them offensively at this point and they have a guy on a 2-way contract playing 35 MPG.

Since Paul went down Harden has carried a usage of 43.8% and he’s shooting 64.5% true shooting. Unlike other ridiculous high volume guys he’s actually driving a league-leading offense. Name a better stretch in NBA history.

Bergmaniac · Post #71 » by **Bergmaniac** » Sun Dec 30, 2018 3:44 pm

Durant's January of 2014 was ridiculous. 35.9 PPG on 68.5 TS%, the Thunder had the second best ORTG and the best net rating in the league during that month with Westbrook out and with the worst offensive player in the league Kendrick Perkins playing 21 MPG.

Pillendreher · Post #72 » by **Pillendreher** » Tue Jan 1, 2019 10:27 pm

https://fansided.com/2018/12/31/nylon-calculus-nba-player-weakest-supporting-casts/

This might be of interest to this thread.

ardee · Post #73 » by **ardee** » Wed Jan 2, 2019 5:26 am

Dr Spaceman wrote:Harden currently owns the 4th highest scoring rate per 100 in NBA history. 87 Jordan, 06 Kobe, 17 Westbrook are the only ones ahead. The best efficiency among those is Jordan at .562. Harden’s at .619.

Harden is scoring at higher volume and slightly better efficiency than any Jordan season you can name. This might legitimately be the best offensive regular season in history.

Top 5 so far?

The High Cyde · Post #74 » by **The High Cyde** » Wed Jan 2, 2019 6:10 pm

Harden might legit win back to back MVPs. He's playing with 2 G-Leaguers essentially and with the corpse of CP3 who even when he's in games looks like Christmas ham, cooked. Even if you don't like his game, you have to respect his production with this carry job, bringing the Rockets back from the Shadow Realm.

ardee · Post #75 » by **ardee** » Fri Jan 4, 2019 10:22 am

The High Cyde wrote:Harden might legit win back to back MVPs. He's playing with 2 G-Leaguers essentially and with the corpse of CP3 who even when he's in games looks like Christmas ham, cooked. Even if you don't like his game, you have to respect his production with this carry job, bringing the Rockets back from the Shadow Realm.

Maybe I'm a bit reactionary but I want to put him at no. 1 now. I'll keep it to 2 now out of respect for what Giannis has done so far but good God.

He's averaging 34/6/9! For the whole **** season!

MisterHibachi · Post #76 » by **MisterHibachi** » Fri Jan 4, 2019 1:54 pm

Over his last 7 games, Harden is hitting 42% of his threes on SEVENTEEN attempts a game. This is an absolutely insane hot streak.

Bergmaniac · Post #77 » by **Bergmaniac** » Fri Jan 4, 2019 3:52 pm

MisterHibachi wrote:Over his last 7 games, Harden is hitting 42% of his threes on SEVENTEEN attempts a game. This is an absolutely insane hot streak.

And virtually all of his 3s has been off the dribble, most of them with a hand in his face, and only one of them has been a catch and shoot 3.

JLei · Post #78 » by **JLei** » Fri Jan 4, 2019 8:24 pm

MisterHibachi wrote:Over his last 7 games, Harden is hitting 42% of his threes on SEVENTEEN attempts a game. This is an absolutely insane hot streak.

He's breaking basketball. And it's really not unsustainable. 39% on pull up 3's 8 per game last year. 39% this year with more volume.

It's not just a hot streak. He should be spamming 3's every chance he can get. Not to mention this takes out the attempts he gets fouled on too. Given the Pachulia rule, you can't really close out on him properly given his size and step back move without fouling.

MisterHibachi · Post #79 » by **MisterHibachi** » Fri Jan 4, 2019 9:01 pm

Honestly feels like a 70 or 80 point game is coming from Harden some point in the next month.

MisterHibachi · Post #80 » by **MisterHibachi** » Fri Jan 4, 2019 9:05 pm

JLei wrote:
MisterHibachi wrote:Over his last 7 games, Harden is hitting 42% of his threes on SEVENTEEN attempts a game. This is an absolutely insane hot streak.

He's breaking basketball. And it's really not unsustainable. 39% on pull up 3's 8 per game last year. 39% this year with more volume.

It's not just a hot streak. He should be spamming 3's every chance he can get. Not to mention this takes out the attempts he gets fouled on too. Given the Pachulia rule, you can't really close out on him properly given his size and step back move without fouling.

Cmon 42% on 17 attempts is definitely a hot streak. Even Curry hasn't approached this level at any point.

His legs will get tired, CP coming back will bring his shot attempts down, refs might swallow some whistles, things will happen to bring him back to earth.