NBA Superstars production in playoffs based on faced defenses

[HHera187]

Thank you.

Added Durant, Bird and Erving.

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[70sFan]

I added Michael Jordan now. What is unique is that Jordan always sustained very high volume scoring. He was also really good at limiting turnovers even against great defensive teams. On the other hand, his efficiency isn't great by any means when he faced elite defenses in playoffs.

I'm not sure that Jordan should be viewed as a clear GOAT scorer anymore. For example, Kareem looks better than Jordan against the best competition (though Jordan played more games against them). Other guys like Wilt, LeBron or Shaq looks comparable too.

[liamliam1234]

First time seeing this. Interesting to observe the oscillation for a few players — Bird and Garnett come to mind. Like you and others in this thread, I am surprised by Kareem’s excellence and by Hakeem’s lack of major advantage. Dirk comes out looking pretty great, but that is not surprising. Might be one of the few to be completely unsurprised by the Wilt results; it was always annoying to see how people would undersell the effect of half his prime games coming against Russell’s Celtics.

New Jordan addition definitely adds a bit of fuel to the GOAT fire, but it is tough for Kareem that he won two titles in his selected period while Jordan won six.

[LKN]

Very interesting work. I will say that the bad defense /ATG defense samples for MJ are so small that they are effectively meaningless. 3.35% of MJs career playoff games equates out to 6 games. Definitely awesome stuff though overall!

[70sFan]

Very interesting work. I will say that the bad defense /ATG defense samples for MJ are so small that they are effectively meaningless. 3.35% of MJs career playoff games equates out to 6 games. Definitely awesome stuff though overall!

True, samples are so small they are almost meaningless. Besides, theye are not outliers either - he completely destroyed two terrible defenses and he played great against the Knicks, though struggled a bit with efficiency which is reasonable against such a great team.

[LKN]

Very interesting work. I will say that the bad defense /ATG defense samples for MJ are so small that they are effectively meaningless. 3.35% of MJs career playoff games equates out to 6 games. Definitely awesome stuff though overall!

True, samples are so small they are almost meaningless. Besides, theye are not outliers either - he completely destroyed two terrible defenses and he played great against the Knicks, though struggled a bit with efficiency which is reasonable against such a great team.

Was that the 92 or 93 Knicks? (I assume it was one of them and I'm being lazy).

Edit nvm - must be 1993.

[70sFan]

Very interesting work. I will say that the bad defense /ATG defense samples for MJ are so small that they are effectively meaningless. 3.35% of MJs career playoff games equates out to 6 games. Definitely awesome stuff though overall!

True, samples are so small they are almost meaningless. Besides, theye are not outliers either - he completely destroyed two terrible defenses and he played great against the Knicks, though struggled a bit with efficiency which is reasonable against such a great team.

Was that the 92 or 93 Knicks? (I assume it was one of them and I'm being lazy).

1993 Knicks, one of the best defensive teams of all time (along with 1994 Knicks). Again, no shame in struggling a bit against them. Still very good performance for Jordan.

[LKN]

True, samples are so small they are almost meaningless. Besides, theye are not outliers either - he completely destroyed two terrible defenses and he played great against the Knicks, though struggled a bit with efficiency which is reasonable against such a great team.

Was that the 92 or 93 Knicks? (I assume it was one of them and I'm being lazy).

1993 Knicks, one of the best defensive teams of all time (along with 1994 Knicks). Again, no shame in struggling a bit against them. Still very good performance for Jordan.

Interestingly enough I actually think MJ played quite a bit better in 1993 compared to 1992 despite his shooting woes in 1993.

His playmaking was on point in 1993 (33.3 AST% vs 7 TOV%) ... excellent ORTG/DRTG (113/103) splits etc. His defense was better in 1993 also.

1992 he really did struggle IMO. That's one of the only series I can think of where MJ had a clearly worse ORTG than the Bulls did overall. (22.2 AST% vs 11.4 TOV% as well... 30 assists to 26 turnovers (107/107 ORTG/DRTG!)).

Pippen also really struggled in 1992..... Grant, Paxson and BJ really came through in that series. (also unfortunately for the Knicks - MJ and Pippen both played fantastic in game 7 and the Knicks got blown out).

[70sFan]

Added Kobe, Wade and Harden.

[liamliam1234]

Pretty wild that Kobe never faced a bad defence. That said, definitely a clear negative trend (despite his reputation as a Spurs killer).

Harden comes across reasonably well. The constant losses to the Warriors have hurt his reputation as a playoff performer a lot more than they should, but I expect that will balance out much like Ewing's losses to the Bulls have balanced out somewhat.

EDIT: Would be extremely interested in seeing Reggie and Drexler.

[70sFan]

Added Gervin and Magic.

[ty 4191]

Hi, I've been collecting stats for a while and I decided to make this post here. I separated some superstars offensive production in playoffs based on defense (RS ORtg) faced. Here are my (random) criteria:

Over +2.0 rDRtg - Bad Defense
From +2.0 to -2.0 rDRtg - Average Defense
From -2.0 to -4.0 rDRtg - Good Defense
From -4.0 to -7.0 rDRtg - Elite Defense
Below -7.0 rDRtg - All-Time Great Defense

I started with centers (my favorite position) and I haven't finished yet, but here are some results:

Centers
Wilt Chamberlain (1960-68):

Against All-Time Great Defenses (23.75% of playoffs games): 47.7 mpg, 28.7 rpg, 2.9 apg, 31.2 ppg on 50.9% FG, 56.8% FT, 53.4% TS (+5.30 rTS%)

Bill Russell (1959-66):

Against All-Time Great Defenses (0.0% of playoffs games):--

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (1970-80):

Against All-Time Great Defenses (0.0% of playoffs games): --

SNIP

Vs. -4.0 or better rDRtg defenses ("Elite Defenses"):

Centers
Bill Russell (11.0% of playoffs games): 42.8 mpg, 26.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 16.4 ppg on 42.7% FG, 60.9% FT, 45.4% TS (-1.90 rTS%)

Wilt Chamberlain (52.50% of playoffs games): 47.5 mpg, 28.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 28.1 ppg on 50.8% FG, 50.6% FT, 52.2% TS (+3.84 rTS%)

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (26.60% of playoffs games): 44.1 mpg, 15.9 rpg, 4.1 apg, 33.3 ppg on 54.5% FG, 72.2% FT, 56.9% TS (+5.28 rTS%)

Tell me what you think about it. I expect good discussion

This is absolutely tremendous work. Incredible kudos to 70's Fan for all his hard work here!!!!

Looking at the above data.....the discrepancy in % of games played against "Elite" + "All Time Great" Defenses in the playoffs further solidifies the case I've been making with my Head To Head Wilt/Russell/KAJ versus Hall Of Fame Centers Study:

Namely:

1) Wilt played against much, MUCH tougher competition than either Russell or KAJ, in the playoffs.

2) Wilt still thrived/dominated, despite playing a much higher % of his games against the best defenses, ever, and any "inconsistency" or "drop off" in his offensive production is due to A) He stopped shooting and scoring the second half of his career and B) he faced the toughest average competition of any Center in NBA History.

[falcolombardi]

there is a odd trend among many of these centers of getting better volume/efficiency against elite defenses vs averagw/good ones

it may be Mouse or maybe a trend of stronger defensive teams being able to defend them without overcomitting their whole defense for it where weaker defenses need to sell out to stop them?

[Owly]

there is a odd trend among many of these centers of getting better volume/efficiency against elite defenses vs averagw/good ones

it may be Mouse or maybe a trend of stronger defensive teams being able to defend them without overcomitting their whole defense for it where weaker defenses need to sell out to stop them?

Noise?

Ewing tracks perfectly for better FT% versus better defenses. Moses fits the trend very well (vs elite a smidge worse than vs good) and Hakeem too (to a marginally lesser extent, could do with his vs elite being 10% higher, otherwise trendline is clear). How much it affects volume and overall efficiency will vary with volume, perhaps not a lot but it's a source of noise (being actually defense independent).

One other thing ... great defensive teams often have great, high-impact defensive centers and great, high-impact defensive centers often have high impact not by nuking their own man's production but by rim-protection and help defense. If they stick to that, the offensive center might get their RS averages but the defender still do their job (and possibly win the team level battle on that end).

[ty 4191]

Have you seen the video Elgee made about who improves/declines the most against playoff defenses?.

Where is this video?

Thank you!

[LukaTheGOAT]

Have you seen the video Elgee made about who improves/declines the most against playoff defenses?.

Where is this video?

Thank you!

https://youtu.be/BtL_zCF6qgQ

Note*-AuPM has been updated since this vid. Backpicks BPM to a less extent has seen some adjustments.

[ty 4191]

Hi, I've been collecting stats for a while and I decided to make this post here. I separated some superstars offensive production in playoffs based on defense (RS ORtg) faced. Here are my (random) criteria:

Over +2.0 rDRtg - Bad Defense
From +2.0 to -2.0 rDRtg - Average Defense
From -2.0 to -4.0 rDRtg - Good Defense
From -4.0 to -7.0 rDRtg - Elite Defense
Below -7.0 rDRtg - All-Time Great Defense

I started with centers (my favorite position) and I haven't finished yet, but here are some results:
Tell me what you think about it. I expect good discussion

Hi 70's Fan!

Can you possibly run Jerry West? I have a sense that he (like Wilt) faced the toughest Elite plus All Time Great Defenses, in his prime, in NBA history.

[70sFan]

Hi, I've been collecting stats for a while and I decided to make this post here. I separated some superstars offensive production in playoffs based on defense (RS ORtg) faced. Here are my (random) criteria:

Over +2.0 rDRtg - Bad Defense
From +2.0 to -2.0 rDRtg - Average Defense
From -2.0 to -4.0 rDRtg - Good Defense
From -4.0 to -7.0 rDRtg - Elite Defense
Below -7.0 rDRtg - All-Time Great Defense

I started with centers (my favorite position) and I haven't finished yet, but here are some results:
Tell me what you think about it. I expect good discussion

Hi 70's Fan!

Can you possibly run Jerry West? I have a sense that he (like Wilt) faced the toughest Elite plus All Time Great Defenses, in his prime, in NBA history.

I will try to calculate stats for West when I find enough time.

[ty 4191]

I will try to calculate stats for West when I find enough time.

Thank you. Much appreciated!!

[LakerLegend]

What exactly is the criteria here.

The Bad Boys allowed more PPG than Nash/Dirks Mavs.