E-Balla wrote:2018 Paul in place of 1971 Oscar is injured 20 games into the season. No way he holds up for 3,714 minutes in a season.
2018 Paul was injured 1 game into the season and the Rockets still ended up with 65 wins. The 71 Bucks had a comfortable 15 game lead over the #2 seed, and were around +8 SRS in 72/73 when Oscar was out. They are not missing the playoffs and there is no team that year that can stop a Kareem/Paul duo in the postseason.
And I do think the chemistry issues came into play plenty of times in his career. If they didn't he'd still be in Houston playing on a contender right now and the Clippers wouldn't have underachieved so much.
Paul being traded has as much to do with his declined on-court play as any off-court chemistry issues with Harden. There was underlying tension between the two in 2018 already but the Rockets still resigned him to a 4 year max deal. Harden may not like him but Paul is not getting traded anywhere if he had played at his 2018 level and they were winning ~65 games.
Regarding the Clippers' under-performance because they were already +6 over 40 games without Paul, I dug up ElGee's old WOWY spreadsheet and the SRS figures without Paul are:
2012: -0.6 SRS. 1 game. Billups Out, 25+ In + PS (42)
2012: +3.0 SRS. 2 game. 25+ In + PS (16)
2013: +3.9 SRS. 10 game. Griffin, Butler In (76)
2014: +6.0 SRS. 13 game. 25+ In + PS (36)
2014: +1.1 SRS. 5 game. Redick Out, 25+ IN + PS (26)
The Clippers seem to be around +4 over the 2012~14 period without Paul, not +6. Additionally, ElGee's WOWY spreadsheet doesn't include anything after 2015 where by my calculation, Clippers' MOV with Griffin in but Paul out was -4.6 in 2016 (5 games) and -4.0 in 2017 (11 games). Not sure how much the figures change depending on the sample controls but I assume the overall Clippers SRS with Paul out during his time there would be around +1 to +2. At +6 with Paul in, that's around a +4 or +5 player, which seems reasonable to me for a top 20 player of all time. (It's around where ElGee rated Paul in his seasonal valuations as well.)