[Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Spurs

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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Spurs 

Post#61 » by HeartBreakKid » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:07 am

Dutchball97 wrote:I've noticed a tendency for overcorrections on RealGM. Media underrates defense? Well suddenly everything here is about defense. The notion of a 50-50 split in offense and defense in terms of importance has always been a pretty wild take to me in a game where teams score 100s of points and great defense will still be scored on frequently. Or how high volume scoring wings with average efficiency get dismissed for being empty calorie players because the media likes them too much.

The most egregious case of this I still think is big men. I'm not sure if it's people growing up watching the game in earlier eras where big men were all that mattered or if it is another overcorrection for "the death of the big men" narrative but it doesn't make sense to me. We know by now Frazier was more important to the Knicks than Reed for example but I still see a lot of centers getting praise just for being centers. The idea that big man defense is infinitely more valuable than anyone else on the court just sounds so outdated at this point.


I mean the media certainly is not overrating defense, that's pretty safe to say.

Well, okay, you don't think defense is as important as offense. That kind of explains your take though. Obviously others think more highly of defense, so why are you so perplexed? It would seem logical then that if people think Robinson is a better defender than Leonard, and that defense is important that Robinson might be the better player. That doesn't sound like some contradiction.

Big men are more important than smaller players on defense generally speaking. Many people cannot make the NBA because they're too small to play defense. Center's impact primarily comes from defense not offense - point guards impact generally comes from offense not defense, as a rule of thumb that is pretty damn hard to debate. For every outlier you find you could find 10x more that would fit that narrative.



Frazier was more important on the Knicks because he was also their best offensive player in addition to his defense, and it's debatable if he was better than Reed anyway. Even if Frazier was the best defender on his team that wouldn't prove anything really other than he is an outlier for his position. That wouldn't make Frazier the best defender in the entire league either, which he wasn't.


It seems like instead of analyzing defense you're making it some type of positional racism. David Robinson is a better defender than Kawhi Leonard, not because he is a center, but because...he's probably just a better defender than Kawhi Leonard. You seem to think there is no separation in elite defenders defense, and your post is even leading toward that defense is somewhat neglect-able as long as they hit the check box of "they're good at defense".

David Robinson has a much larger sample size of anchoring elite defenses for multiple seasons, has generally played defense on a more consistent level, the few seasons we have of his impact data shows he is elite despite not being in his prime most of those seasons, he beats Kawhi Leonard badly on rebounds, he beats him bad on blocks, he beats him on minutes and durability which in turn allows him to match Kawhi in steals (despite being a post player).

I mean there are plenty of things going for David Robinson. Do you think Scottie Pippen and David Robinson are equal defenders?

Conceptual speaking just because teams can score over a 100 points doesn't mean that defense is not as valuable as offense. You're ignoring things like pace and that elite defense is relative to the opposition.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Spurs 

Post#62 » by Dutchball97 » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:25 am

70sFan wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:I've noticed a tendency for overcorrections on RealGM. Media underrates defense? Well suddenly everything here is about defense. The notion of a 50-50 split in offense and defense in terms of importance has always been a pretty wild take to me in a game where teams score 100s of points and great defense will still be scored on frequently. Or how high volume scoring wings with average efficiency get dismissed for being empty calorie players because the media likes them too much.

The most egregious case of this I still think is big men. I'm not sure if it's people growing up watching the game in earlier eras where big men were all that mattered or if it is another overcorrection for "the death of the big men" narrative but it doesn't make sense to me. We know by now Frazier was more important to the Knicks than Reed for example but I still see a lot of centers getting praise just for being centers. The idea that big man defense is infinitely more valuable than anyone else on the court just sounds so outdated at this point.

I don't think we know that, it seems that Reed (and DeBusschere) was more important for Knicks defense than Frazier. Walt was their main guy on offense, but definitely not on defense.

Do you really believe that Kawhi is comparable defensively to Robinson?


The Frazier/Reed comparison was more about their overall impact than their defense. I should've made that more clear. It was referring to the old mindset of centers getting the majority of credit for a team's results and that goes even more so for a team's defense.

I do not think Kawhi is as good defensively as Robinson. However, I think the offensive gap (in the post-season) is a more significant difference.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Spurs 

Post#63 » by Dutchball97 » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:38 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:I've noticed a tendency for overcorrections on RealGM. Media underrates defense? Well suddenly everything here is about defense. The notion of a 50-50 split in offense and defense in terms of importance has always been a pretty wild take to me in a game where teams score 100s of points and great defense will still be scored on frequently. Or how high volume scoring wings with average efficiency get dismissed for being empty calorie players because the media likes them too much.

The most egregious case of this I still think is big men. I'm not sure if it's people growing up watching the game in earlier eras where big men were all that mattered or if it is another overcorrection for "the death of the big men" narrative but it doesn't make sense to me. We know by now Frazier was more important to the Knicks than Reed for example but I still see a lot of centers getting praise just for being centers. The idea that big man defense is infinitely more valuable than anyone else on the court just sounds so outdated at this point.


I mean the media certainly is not overrating defense, that's pretty safe to say.

Well, okay, you don't think defense is as important as offense. That kind of explains your take though. Obviously others think more highly of defense, so why are you so perplexed? It would seem logical then that if people think Robinson is a better defender than Leonard, and that defense is important that Robinson might be the better player. That doesn't sound like some contradiction.

Big men are more important than smaller players on defense generally speaking. Many people cannot make the NBA because they're too small to play defense. Center's impact primarily comes from defense not offense - point guards impact generally comes from offense not defense, as a rule of thumb that is pretty damn hard to debate. For every outlier you find you could find 10x more that would fit that narrative.



Frazier was more important on the Knicks because he was also their best offensive player in addition to his defense, and it's debatable if he was better than Reed anyway. Even if Frazier was the best defender on his team that wouldn't prove anything really other than he is an outlier for his position. That wouldn't make Frazier the best defender in the entire league either, which he wasn't.


It seems like instead of analyzing defense you're making it some type of positional racism. David Robinson is a better defender than Kawhi Leonard, not because he is a center, but because...he's probably just a better defender than Kawhi Leonard. You seem to think there is no separation in elite defenders defense, and your post is even leading toward that defense is somewhat neglect-able as long as they hit the check box of "they're good at defense".

David Robinson has a much larger sample size of anchoring elite defenses for multiple seasons, has generally played defense on a more consistent level, the few seasons we have of his impact data shows he is elite despite not being in his prime most of those seasons, he beats Kawhi Leonard badly on rebounds, he beats him bad on blocks, he beats him on minutes and durability which in turn allows him to match Kawhi in steals (despite being a post player).

I mean there are plenty of things going for David Robinson. Do you think Scottie Pippen and David Robinson are equal defenders?

Conceptual speaking just because teams can score over a 100 points doesn't mean that defense is not as valuable as offense. You're ignoring things like pace and that elite defense is relative to the opposition.


But why do you think defense is more important than offense? I can understand defense being more of a swingfactor as most players have good offense while that isn't as common on the other end.

You're talking about D-Rob having more great defensive years than Kawhi. Well yes, I said that already but this is about single season peak.

The term "anchoring" shows exactly what I'm trying to say. The center is seen as the anchor of the defense and will get the defensive credit whether they deserve it or not. It is exactly like just naming the player who scores the most points something like heart or motor of the offense.

I'm not denying Kawhi isn't as good defensively as D-Rob. I'm going against the notion that D-Rob has to be much better defensively than Kawhi simply because of the position they play.

What you're accusing me of doing for defense is exactly what you do on offense. You see D-Rob as this guy that scores a lot, sometimes even more than Kawhi, so him being a better defender immediately means D-Rob was the better and more impactful overall player to you.

I see D-Rob's offense as detrimental in the post-season just like what Giannis is experiencing now. Robinson doesn't have a varied enough offense and is unable to carry his team offensively. Kawhi rises up both offensively and defensively in the post-season. Kawhi as a SF should be expected to pass just as much as D-Rob as a C but because we're used to Bird, Pippen and LeBron playing point forward that somehow Kawhi's average playmaking for his position is now a negative, while it is counted as a positive for D-Rob. The idea that Robinson is just as good on offense as Kawhi or that the defensive gap is more significant than the offensive one only holds up if you admit valuing the regular season over the post-season. Some do that and remain consistent with it so while I disagree it isn't unexpected but for others who highly value the post-season like me, reducing the comparison to D-Rob is better because he's taller sounds biased and unproductive to say the least.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Spurs 

Post#64 » by Dutchball97 » Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:45 am

I don't intend to completely to flood the thread with my Kawhi vs Robinson defensive discussion but I do want to note something on my end. I have a modern look on basketball as I only started following basketball in the early 10s. Currently big men are still the most valuable defenders but they can also be played off the floor and I see them more of having an important role in the defense instead being the guy who keeps it all together.

We all agree on how drastically offense has changed over the years but for defense this change might be even more pronounced. I'll have to take a bit of a dive on the importance of different roles on defense in earlier eras. While I don't think Kawhi would be massively behind D-Rob defensively against modern offenses, there is a strong case to be made that D-Rob was indeed much more valuable defensively in his era than Kawhi is in the current era.

I'm especially interested in how post-defense held up in the play-offs. Currently post-defenders tend to get less minutes in the play-offs than they do in the regular season because of the possibilty of them being unable to defend the perimeter. Now I know this wouldn't be the case for D-Rob as he could defend the perimeter just fine for a big man but this is more of an in general question. If it turns out post-defense actually increased in importance in the post-season in eras with suboptimal spacing I'd have to adjust my valuation of the impact of defensive big men.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Spurs 

Post#65 » by Odinn21 » Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:51 am

A little more than 4 hours left on the clock for this one.

---

Dutchball97 wrote:I don't intend to completely to flood the thread with my Kawhi vs Robinson defensive discussion but I do want to note something on my end. I have a modern look on basketball as I only started following basketball in the early 10s. Currently big men are still the most valuable defenders but they can also be played off the floor and I see them more of having an important role in the defense instead being the guy who keeps it all together.

We all agree on how drastically offense has changed over the years but for defense this change might be even more pronounced. I'll have to take a bit of a dive on the importance of different roles on defense in earlier eras. While I don't think Kawhi would be massively behind D-Rob defensively against modern offenses, there is a strong case to be made that D-Rob was indeed much more valuable defensively in his era than Kawhi is in the current era.

I'm especially interested in how post-defense held up in the play-offs. Currently post-defenders tend to get less minutes in the play-offs than they do in the regular season because of the possibilty of them being unable to defend the perimeter. Now I know this wouldn't be the case for D-Rob as he could defend the perimeter just fine for a big man but this is more of an in general question. If it turns out post-defense actually increased in importance in the post-season in eras with suboptimal spacing I'd have to adjust my valuation of the impact of defensive big men.

There are two important aspects for how big defense changed over time. Especially from early 2000s to now.

At one point, the league wanted to see more 1v1 face-up actions because the hard defense of the era ('95-'05) was costing them ratings with low scoring games. Especially after Jordan's retirement.

The reason why big defense meant so much is that players were much more allowed to disrupt movement flow with physical interactions. Not just talking about hand-checking. It was actually illegal during some of that time frame. The painted area, the restricted area dynamics were much more stiff. Many of screens we see today would be called out and punished in majority of the league's history because they are moving screens.
In short, beating a defender while facing the basket was harder than beating him while backing down because the most fundamental thing about post up play is shielding the ball with the body. You had to keep the ball out of reach because players on defense were more favoured than players on offense. (I'd say the sweet spot for this balance was around 2008-2013, then it was going in the offense's way and it never stopped.) Now, players on offense are much more protected when defense tries to reach the ball.

Of course there's a massive and developing bias towards three point shooting. With the actual area that can be scored on getting bigger, and also implementations of rules are way more lenient to keep offensive flow away from disruptions, lateral movement/quickness became more important than before.

Shutting down lanes and blocking path to the rim is still the most important aspect on defense because shot at the rim is still the most valuable shot and also creates more and better chances for high value 3pt shots more than the vice versa. So, rim protectors will never go out of style.

Now, I don't think the goat level bigs from post-up era would be worse in 2010s and onwards. They are goat level bigs for a reason.
If you do film studies on Olajuwon in 1990 or 1993, Mutombo in 1994 or 1997, Robinson in 1995, Ewing in 1990 (or even 1994 when his knees were worse) they were doing what's required in the '10s already. They had good/great vertical and lateral movements. I was in awe of how Olajuwon was shutting down every single movement with a natural flow.

Another note is that we saw goat level defensive bigs still being goat level defensive bigs in the '10s. In 2012, the Heat were, not so arguably, better than the Celtics. We saw that 36 yo Garnett's defensive impact forced the Heat to play 2 elimination games. We also saw that Tim Duncan in his very last season, pretty much with all his mobility gone, was bringing defense as much as peak Leonard was doing. (D-RAPM ranks; NBAshotcharts.com has Leonard at #1 and Duncan #3, Engelmann's list has Leonard at #4 and Duncan at #6)
We have proof of that goat level defensive bigs doing the work in the '10s.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Spurs 

Post#66 » by 70sFan » Sun Jun 13, 2021 12:33 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:The Frazier/Reed comparison was more about their overall impact than their defense. I should've made that more clear. It was referring to the old mindset of centers getting the majority of credit for a team's results and that goes even more so for a team's defense.

Alright, then fair enough - although Reed was probably the most important Knicks player before the injury. Still, the old mindset doesn't exist anymore, most people (even here) believe that you don't need a good center to win the title.

The term "anchoring" shows exactly what I'm trying to say. The center is seen as the anchor of the defense and will get the defensive credit whether they deserve it or not. It is exactly like just naming the player who scores the most points something like heart or motor of the offense.


In Robinson's case it's true though. You can't deny that Robinson was the anchor of Spurs defense and he was basically the reason why they were good. They'd suck without him on defensive end without proper replacement.

In contrast, Kawhi never played with casts he had to carry or "anchor" on either side of the ball.

I see D-Rob's offense as detrimental in the post-season just like what Giannis is experiencing now. Robinson doesn't have a varied enough offense and is unable to carry his team offensively. Kawhi rises up both offensively and defensively in the post-season.


Yeah, this is the same criticism I have against Admiral, so I get this point. At the same time, you have to keep in mind that Spurs didn't do a good job building offense around Robinson, while Kawhi and Giannis usually played with talented teams that are built quite well. It doesn't change the fact that Kawhi is much better scorer than Robinson, but Kawhi's weaknesses are easier to hide on better teams. That may make offensive gap larger than it is in reality.

Kawhi rises up both offensively and defensively in the post-season.


Kawhi had quite a few defensive underperformances in postseason though. The most notable one is 2019 WCSF, but he's far from amazing this season again and he wasn't dominant in 2016 WCSF either. I am high on Kawhi's defense, but I disagree that it rises up in postseason.

The idea that Robinson is just as good on offense as Kawhi or that the defensive gap is more significant than the offensive one only holds up if you admit valuing the regular season over the post-season. Some do that and remain consistent with it so while I disagree it isn't unexpected but for others who highly value the post-season like me, reducing the comparison to D-Rob is better because he's taller sounds biased and unproductive to say the least.


I mean, it only works if you think that Kawhi rised up his defensive impact in playoffs. I don't see any reason to believe that, so even if Kawhi has huge edge on offense in playoffs, I have Admiral's defensive edge as large as well.

I have a modern look on basketball as I only started following basketball in the early 10s. Currently big men are still the most valuable defenders but they can also be played off the floor and I see them more of having an important role in the defense instead being the guy who keeps it all together.

Who among the best defensive bigs of the 2010s was ever played off the floor? I haven't seen it happening to Garnett, Duncan, Green or Davis. Gobert has been doing just fine playing against small-ball, highly efficient shooting Clippers team.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Spurs 

Post#67 » by migya » Sun Jun 13, 2021 1:49 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:I've noticed a tendency for overcorrections on RealGM. Media underrates defense? Well suddenly everything here is about defense. The notion of a 50-50 split in offense and defense in terms of importance has always been a pretty wild take to me in a game where teams score 100s of points and great defense will still be scored on frequently. Or how high volume scoring wings with average efficiency get dismissed for being empty calorie players because the media likes them too much.

The most egregious case of this I still think is big men. I'm not sure if it's people growing up watching the game in earlier eras where big men were all that mattered or if it is another overcorrection for "the death of the big men" narrative but it doesn't make sense to me. We know by now Frazier was more important to the Knicks than Reed for example but I still see a lot of centers getting praise just for being centers. The idea that big man defense is infinitely more valuable than anyone else on the court just sounds so outdated at this point.


I mean the media certainly is not overrating defense, that's pretty safe to say.

Well, okay, you don't think defense is as important as offense. That kind of explains your take though. Obviously others think more highly of defense, so why are you so perplexed? It would seem logical then that if people think Robinson is a better defender than Leonard, and that defense is important that Robinson might be the better player. That doesn't sound like some contradiction.

Big men are more important than smaller players on defense generally speaking. Many people cannot make the NBA because they're too small to play defense. Center's impact primarily comes from defense not offense - point guards impact generally comes from offense not defense, as a rule of thumb that is pretty damn hard to debate. For every outlier you find you could find 10x more that would fit that narrative.



Frazier was more important on the Knicks because he was also their best offensive player in addition to his defense, and it's debatable if he was better than Reed anyway. Even if Frazier was the best defender on his team that wouldn't prove anything really other than he is an outlier for his position. That wouldn't make Frazier the best defender in the entire league either, which he wasn't.


It seems like instead of analyzing defense you're making it some type of positional racism. David Robinson is a better defender than Kawhi Leonard, not because he is a center, but because...he's probably just a better defender than Kawhi Leonard. You seem to think there is no separation in elite defenders defense, and your post is even leading toward that defense is somewhat neglect-able as long as they hit the check box of "they're good at defense".

David Robinson has a much larger sample size of anchoring elite defenses for multiple seasons, has generally played defense on a more consistent level, the few seasons we have of his impact data shows he is elite despite not being in his prime most of those seasons, he beats Kawhi Leonard badly on rebounds, he beats him bad on blocks, he beats him on minutes and durability which in turn allows him to match Kawhi in steals (despite being a post player).

I mean there are plenty of things going for David Robinson. Do you think Scottie Pippen and David Robinson are equal defenders?

Conceptual speaking just because teams can score over a 100 points doesn't mean that defense is not as valuable as offense. You're ignoring things like pace and that elite defense is relative to the opposition.


But why do you think defense is more important than offense? I can understand defense being more of a swingfactor as most players have good offense while that isn't as common on the other end.

You're talking about D-Rob having more great defensive years than Kawhi. Well yes, I said that already but this is about single season peak.

The term "anchoring" shows exactly what I'm trying to say. The center is seen as the anchor of the defense and will get the defensive credit whether they deserve it or not. It is exactly like just naming the player who scores the most points something like heart or motor of the offense.

I'm not denying Kawhi isn't as good defensively as D-Rob. I'm going against the notion that D-Rob has to be much better defensively than Kawhi simply because of the position they play.

What you're accusing me of doing for defense is exactly what you do on offense. You see D-Rob as this guy that scores a lot, sometimes even more than Kawhi, so him being a better defender immediately means D-Rob was the better and more impactful overall player to you.

I see D-Rob's offense as detrimental in the post-season just like what Giannis is experiencing now. Robinson doesn't have a varied enough offense and is unable to carry his team offensively. Kawhi rises up both offensively and defensively in the post-season. Kawhi as a SF should be expected to pass just as much as D-Rob as a C but because we're used to Bird, Pippen and LeBron playing point forward that somehow Kawhi's average playmaking for his position is now a negative, while it is counted as a positive for D-Rob. The idea that Robinson is just as good on offense as Kawhi or that the defensive gap is more significant than the offensive one only holds up if you admit valuing the regular season over the post-season. Some do that and remain consistent with it so while I disagree it isn't unexpected but for others who highly value the post-season like me, reducing the comparison to D-Rob is better because he's taller sounds biased and unproductive to say the least.



Look at Robinson's playoff numbers. He really only drops his level in 1994 against the Jazz. He never fell off to a large degree and his team not "winning in the playoffs" is largely because of the quality of his team moreso than him. In 1990, his rookie season, they lost in the 2nd round as the lower seed and at the end of game 7, that's a successful playoffs. In 1991 he plays very well against Run TMC but his team doesn't and they lost. He was injured for the playoffs in 1992 and his team got swept in the 1st round. In 1993, his least great of his prime seasons, they beat Portland in 1st round and lost in 6 games, Barkley hitting game winner, to the finalist Phoenix that lost to Bulls in 6 games, on series winning shot by Paxson. In 1995 they lost in WCF in 6 games to the champions and Olajuwon playing out of his mind but Robinson had 24pts, 11rebs, 2.2blks, 1.5stls, numbers that most stars wouldn't be criticised for.

Shaq's playoff history isn't as great as most seem to paint it:
In 1994 he scored 9 points less and got swept in the 1st round. In 1995 he averaged 3.5 less points inn playoffs than regular season, swept in finals. In 1996, less points, rebounds and far less blocks, swept in ECF. In 1997, less rebounds, less blocks, slightly more points on far less efficiency. In 2004 he is not better than regular season. In 2005 and 2006 he was worse than in regular season. This while having another star to distract opposition defenses, which Robinson just didn't have pre Duncan.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Spurs 

Post#68 » by Odinn21 » Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:00 pm

The Spurs results;

Code: Select all

1. 9-0-0-0-0 / 90 points / 1.000 share / '03 Tim Duncan
2. 0-7-2-0-0 / 59 points / 0.656 share / '95 David Robinson
3. 0-2-7-0-0 / 49 points / 0.544 share / '16 Kawhi Leonard
4. 0-0-0-5-3 / 18 points / 0.200 share / '78 George Gervin
5. 0-0-0-4-5 / 17 points / 0.189 share / '05 Manu Ginobili

6. 0-0-0-0-1 /  1 points / 0.011 share / '13 Tony Parker


Results on Google Sheet
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Spurs 

Post#69 » by Owly » Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:19 pm

I'll leave the discussion here because there's stuff in the manner of this post that really irritated me...

To reiterate ...

My post pertains to Manu and Duncan benefiting from playing with one another and an inaccurate framing that overemphasizes Manu benefiting and not acknowledging Duncan benefiting. That they both benefit from one another is not in contention. Their minutes together are not relevant. What are are their minutes apart (i.e. what I posted). If you do not grasp this then you either your logic is flawed or you have missed the point.

You post had the two together samples; the two Ginobili, no Duncan samples and neither of the Duncan no Ginobili samples. The test of who benefits more - insofar as you can solve it with limited data both in limited number of plays and a limited measure of impact (without massive trawling which is beyond me) is in how a team plays with one and not the other. As before that this is a flawed, limited measure is acknowledged. You chose nevertheless to engange with on/off numbers.

If one wants to use the data you used to say look Manu benefits, sure of course. But I have said that in each post, so it seems a bit pointless.

Whilst it was alleged that
the use of those numbers looked somewhat off.

yet your posted numbers suggest either a deliberately partial framing or a missing of the point.

Odinn21 wrote:
Owly wrote:I'm not sure what your re-posting of source material does other than exclude the (relatively large, relatively pedestrian) Duncan+Parker no Manu sample, which seems relevant and thus it's exclusion, at best, an oversight.

That's the issue of raw +/- data. Ginobili babysat the secondary unit and played against the secondary units more than the other 2.
It's not an oversight. The oversight here is using raw +/- data without looking at lineup subunits and recognizing patterns.
The reason why Ginobili became a 6th man is Popovich recognizing the pattern to amplify +/- swings to capitalize on the secondary units.

You say
That's the issue of raw +/- data

Whilst you don't say what "that" is, based on what follows I would assume it is uneven lineups on either side ... which is true and something acknowledged and a critique to drawing really strong conclusions off such data. No such conclusions were drawn though.

RE: Manu benefits from playing bench lineups ... my understanding is the APM family attempts to adjust for this. And still Manu is monster(e.g. https://sites.google.com/site/rapmstats/2005-npi, and for playoff career https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/db5hpt/19982019_playoffs_rapm_1_lebron_james_1_draymond/). And he's productive. The question then is not just whether there is any evidence that he gained significant net benefit from any additional proportion of minutes versus bench lineups or more pertinently the net effect of such changes on both teams (including some solid wing replacements). If you have that evidence by all means I would be interested, but given his RAPMs I would be surprised if this was the case.

Odinn21 wrote:
Owly wrote:FWIW, I don't focus strongly on playoffs nor know or have any expertise in whether opponents defensive game plans shifted massively between 2006 and 2007. The following is not something I'd weight heavily or even look at myself but for the playoffs in question (2005) he's at .282 of his 2pt field goals assisted so it doesn't seem like he's getting much direct benefit from any aggressive, multi-man coverage of or focus upon Duncan, though this wouldn't include things like a reluctance to leave Duncan to stop penetration.

It's an interesting way to take my main argument. Bryant's assisted 2pt fg rate was at 30.9% in 2000 playoffs. I guess O'Neal was not the centrepiece of that offensive structure.

For someone who has thrown repeated accusations of people putting words into your mouth this seems ... rich.

Show me where my post talks about who the "centrepiece" is ... you can't because it doesn't. Yet you post this in reply to me as if it is the logical conclusion of or even pertains remotely to anything I have said. Bizarre.

Odinn21 wrote:I mentioned things Duncan created for the team, not just Ginobili.....

Which is fine but entirely tangential or frankly just irrelevant to the point being made. The idea being discussed was that Manu was getting this great benefit from the pairing without any acknowledgement of any Duncan benefit and whether this is a fair characterization of the directionality of the benefit from their synergy.

That Duncan was good was never in dispute and his benefits to teammates are reflected in his strong impact numbers. I don't see the pertinence of "playing with Duncan benefitted others" because if Manu isn't especially benefiting (heck, even if he was) this is baked in to all the prior data.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Spurs 

Post#70 » by Odinn21 » Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:05 pm

You very well could be irritated all you want. Throwing a question or an approach in the air without having some thought about it already is not something happens. The starting point of the discussion was quoting 70sFan's point about Ginobili benefiting from Duncan's presence on offense. You did not say centrepiece but the bolded part of the post that got you involved was about Duncan being the centrepiece and Ginobili getting benefit off of Duncan. Are you really oblivious to the part you were questioning at the very beginning?

Owly wrote:
70sFan wrote:5. 2004/05 Manu Ginobili - amazing season with massive impact, but with limited role. I don't think people realize how much Manu's play was the result of playing off Duncan, who was still Spurs real MVP and the best player in the world. Still, can't deny the impact he had and I love watching him play.

There was nice synergy in general but if we're talking 2005...
if I'm reading (and calculating) this right (and earlier roundings aren't throwing anything off too much):

viewtopic.php?t=1543306

Spurs +8.481871345 per 100 possessions with Manu no Duncan (67.25% of this is with Parker)
Spurs +4.072236244 per 100 possessions with Duncan no Manu (72.99% of this is with Parker)

Raw +/- data was used as a questioning method for the claim. And I basically mentioned things that iterated what 70sFan said.

---

As for RAPM, or any type of +/- data, it's a metric of impact and not a metric of productivity. RAPM basically says "this player is this impactful when his role is this big and on court production is this much". Knowing roles and productions are our job to make good use of RAPM. A quick example about this; Draymond Green had a higher O-RAPM than Kevin Durant in 2016. That doesn't mean that Green could be the offensive player that Durant was. No type of +/- data has a method to distinguish role specifications. If you want an example of teammates, the same thing applies between Derek Anderson and Tim Duncan in 2001 for instance.

By the way;
Engelmann PI-RAPM
This is Jeremias Engelmann's PI-RAPM numbers recorded by Jacob Goldstein on Google Sheets. Those numbers include regular season + postseason plays. This and NBA Shot Charts are the most reliable RAPM source I'm aware of. I'd suggest making a copy of that Google Sheets document to browse through seasons with filters.
(Edit; I know that Duncan is ranked over Ginobili in 2005 numbers in Engelmann's numbers. That was not my point or case for anything. Just wanted to provide the reliable sources I know.)
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Spurs 

Post#71 » by Owly » Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:56 pm

Odinn21 wrote:You very well could be irritated all you want. Throwing a question or an approach in the air without having some thought about it already is not something happens. The starting point of the discussion was quoting 70sFan's point about Ginobili benefiting from Duncan's presence on offense. You did not say centrepiece but the bolded part of the post that got you involved was about Duncan being the centrepiece and Ginobili getting benefit off of Duncan. Are you really oblivious to the part you were questioning at the very beginning?

Owly wrote:
70sFan wrote:5. 2004/05 Manu Ginobili - amazing season with massive impact, but with limited role. I don't think people realize how much Manu's play was the result of playing off Duncan, who was still Spurs real MVP and the best player in the world. Still, can't deny the impact he had and I love watching him play.

There was nice synergy in general but if we're talking 2005...
if I'm reading (and calculating) this right (and earlier roundings aren't throwing anything off too much):

viewtopic.php?t=1543306

Spurs +8.481871345 per 100 possessions with Manu no Duncan (67.25% of this is with Parker)
Spurs +4.072236244 per 100 possessions with Duncan no Manu (72.99% of this is with Parker)

Raw +/- data was used as a questioning method for the claim. And I basically mentioned things that iterated what 70sFan said.

---

As for RAPM, or any type of +/- data, it's a metric of impact and not a metric of productivity. RAPM basically says "this player is this impactful when his role is this big and on court production is this much". Knowing roles and productions are our job to make good use of RAPM. A quick example about this; Draymond Green had a higher O-RAPM than Kevin Durant in 2016. That doesn't mean that Green could be the offensive player that Durant was. No type of +/- data has a method to distinguish role specifications. If you want an example of teammates, the same thing applies between Derek Anderson and Tim Duncan in 2001 for instance.

By the way;
Engelmann PI-RAPM
This is Jeremias Engelmann's PI-RAPM numbers recorded by Jacob Goldstein on Google Sheets. Those numbers include regular season + postseason plays. This and NBA Shot Charts are the most reliable RAPM source I'm aware of. I'd suggest making a copy of that Google Sheets document to browse through seasons with filters.
(Edit; I know that Duncan is ranked over Ginobili in 2005 numbers in Engelmann's numbers. That was not my point or case for anything. Just wanted to provide the reliable sources I know.)

The question isn't who's the "centrepiece" it was who benefited from whom. Your arbitrary "centrepiece" distinction was entirely your own. If I wanted to debate centrepieces I'd first seek to clarify terms and look what was noted. Thus the Shaq point remains deeply odd.

You reiterated what was said without seemingly realizing that I agreed with that part (both on is very good)
me wrote:There was nice synergy
but disagreed with a one-sided framing.

Your tangent on productivity is irrelevant. Of course any one number doesn't mean X could do what Y could. And single year impact stuff especially should be tentative. Hence no big claims made here.

If Manu benefited significantly more (relatively) from Duncan's primacy then he'd clearly the more hurt by Duncan going to the bench than vice-versa (especially in the playoffs, where he's second in usage). Noisy as the data is it really doesn't seem to justify this one sided presentation of the benefits of their synergy. If there's anything that does I'd welcome it.

I haven't seen anything to back your implications that Manu benefited substantially from favorable lineups.


re English your second sentence makes no sense.
Appreciate good RAPM sources though prefer NPI as a fairer measure within season as external priors make it less about what happened that season and more something else using external information (which may on average be a more accurate). In this case it's very clear that '04 Manu does not = '05 Manu. I understand, appreciate and agree that having favorable numbers in a specific RAPM isn't the point.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Spurs 

Post#72 » by Jaivl » Sun Jun 13, 2021 10:50 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Shout-out to '13 Parker [does NOT suck; come on fellas],

Trex, I feel your Parker analysis is lacking nuance. Great getting to the rim and finishing, good enough floor general, very good impact marks on the early 10s with a bit heavier offensive load...

But you see, there's a very important point you've failed to consider. He's French.
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