Higher peak to date: Nikola Jokic vs Giannis

[CharityStripe34]

They're both still in their peak and putting up incredible production. This will be a fascinating discussion 5-7 years from now.

[Ron Swanson]

Easy to say now that he has Damian Lillard on his team and you can conveniently label Khris Middleton (by nature of playing with Giannis) as a multi-time All-Star, but there sure seems to be a lot of revisionism with the idea that Giannis has had more talent around him.

I think it speaks volumes that you're now seeing a guy like Jrue Holiday all of a sudden become the Celtics 4th or 5th option, whereas just last season he was basically forced into a miscast role of Giannis' offensive sidekick/#2. Should probably make people appreciate just how impressive it was for those Bucks teams to win a championship through Giannis anchoring historic playoff defenses while still being this helio-offensive engine. I think anyone looking at it objectively would have to admit it's been about equal in terms of supporting cast over their primes, even with the similarity that you can use injury luck as a reason why each guy hasn't won more than one championship (yet).

[Jaqua92]

Jokic, comfortably for me.

The gap between Jokic and anyone else (Giannis in his prime included) is as big as we've seen in a bit.

What Jokic does on the offensive end of the floor is so historically great, that it MORE than makes up for the defensive discrepancy, especially in today's offense oriented era.

I'm a bit surprised this is close, or that Giannis is even leading for that matter.

Accomplishments aside, what Jokic has routinely done in the playoffs (in terms of production) with that team, and the way he won the championship last year puts this peak damn near top 6 for me.

An effecient triple double throughout the entire playoffs, 30/12/10 against the best defensive bigs in the NBA just is historic.

It's Jokic. All day.

[Colbinii]

Easy to say now that he has Damian Lillard on his team and you can conveniently label Khris Middleton (by nature of playing with Giannis) as a multi-time All-Star, but there sure seems to be a lot of revisionism with the idea that Giannis has had more talent around him.

I think it speaks volumes that you're now seeing a guy like Jrue Holiday all of a sudden become the Celtics 4th or 5th option, whereas just last season he was basically forced into a miscast role of Giannis' offensive sidekick/#2. Should probably make people appreciate just how impressive it was for those Bucks teams to win a championship through Giannis anchoring historic playoff defenses while still being this helio-offensive engine. I think anyone looking at it objectively would have to admit it's been about equal in terms of supporting cast over their primes, even with the similarity that you can use injury luck as a reason why each guy hasn't won more than one championship (yet).

And yet Jrue was so miscast last year that his impact and numbers were terrific. He led the team in On/Off and +/-, posted his best high-usage season in 5 years and put up 19/5/7.

I think we all know and appreciate the Bucks winning a championship. Injuries to Brooklyn. Injuries to the Clippers. Injuries to LeBron and AD.

[Ron Swanson]

Easy to say now that he has Damian Lillard on his team and you can conveniently label Khris Middleton (by nature of playing with Giannis) as a multi-time All-Star, but there sure seems to be a lot of revisionism with the idea that Giannis has had more talent around him.

I think it speaks volumes that you're now seeing a guy like Jrue Holiday all of a sudden become the Celtics 4th or 5th option, whereas just last season he was basically forced into a miscast role of Giannis' offensive sidekick/#2. Should probably make people appreciate just how impressive it was for those Bucks teams to win a championship through Giannis anchoring historic playoff defenses while still being this helio-offensive engine. I think anyone looking at it objectively would have to admit it's been about equal in terms of supporting cast over their primes, even with the similarity that you can use injury luck as a reason why each guy hasn't won more than one championship (yet).

And yet Jrue was so miscast last year that his impact and numbers were terrific. He led the team in On/Off and +/-, posted his best high-usage season in 5 years and put up 19/5/7.

I think we all know and appreciate the Bucks winning a championship. Injuries to Brooklyn. Injuries to the Clippers. Injuries to LeBron and AD.

Can't use this "he had an easy championship run" excuse for Jokic at all. Nope.

[Doctor MJ]

Easy to say now that he has Damian Lillard on his team and you can conveniently label Khris Middleton (by nature of playing with Giannis) as a multi-time All-Star, but there sure seems to be a lot of revisionism with the idea that Giannis has had more talent around him.

I think it speaks volumes that you're now seeing a guy like Jrue Holiday all of a sudden become the Celtics 4th or 5th option, whereas just last season he was basically forced into a miscast role of Giannis' offensive sidekick/#2. Should probably make people appreciate just how impressive it was for those Bucks teams to win a championship through Giannis anchoring historic playoff defenses while still being this helio-offensive engine. I think anyone looking at it objectively would have to admit it's been about equal in terms of supporting cast over their primes, even with the similarity that you can use injury luck as a reason why each guy hasn't won more than one championship (yet).

And yet Jrue was so miscast last year that his impact and numbers were terrific. He led the team in On/Off and +/-, posted his best high-usage season in 5 years and put up 19/5/7.

I think we all know and appreciate the Bucks winning a championship. Injuries to Brooklyn. Injuries to the Clippers. Injuries to LeBron and AD.

Can't use this "he had an easy championship run" excuse for Jokic at all. Nope.

Not saying you don't have a general point here, but I'd say the only series that was really against a weak opponent compared to what you'd expect was the Finals, playing against the team that eliminated Giannis' team. The Lakers might seem weak because they were a 7th seed, but they weren't playing anything like a 7th seed come playoff time.

[Colbinii]

Easy to say now that he has Damian Lillard on his team and you can conveniently label Khris Middleton (by nature of playing with Giannis) as a multi-time All-Star, but there sure seems to be a lot of revisionism with the idea that Giannis has had more talent around him.

I think it speaks volumes that you're now seeing a guy like Jrue Holiday all of a sudden become the Celtics 4th or 5th option, whereas just last season he was basically forced into a miscast role of Giannis' offensive sidekick/#2. Should probably make people appreciate just how impressive it was for those Bucks teams to win a championship through Giannis anchoring historic playoff defenses while still being this helio-offensive engine. I think anyone looking at it objectively would have to admit it's been about equal in terms of supporting cast over their primes, even with the similarity that you can use injury luck as a reason why each guy hasn't won more than one championship (yet).

And yet Jrue was so miscast last year that his impact and numbers were terrific. He led the team in On/Off and +/-, posted his best high-usage season in 5 years and put up 19/5/7.

I think we all know and appreciate the Bucks winning a championship. Injuries to Brooklyn. Injuries to the Clippers. Injuries to LeBron and AD.

Can't use this "he had an easy championship run" excuse for Jokic at all. Nope.

Okay, so let's walk back and maybe you can actually address what I said in response to your points.

I think it speaks volumes that you're now seeing a guy like Jrue Holiday all of a sudden become the Celtics 4th or 5th option, whereas just last season he was basically forced into a miscast role of Giannis' offensive sidekick/#2.

My Response: And yet Jrue was so miscast last year that his impact and numbers were terrific. He led the team in On/Off and +/-, posted his best high-usage season in 5 years and put up 19/5/7.

Your Response?

Should probably make people appreciate just how impressive it was for those Bucks teams to win a championship through Giannis anchoring historic playoff defenses while still being this helio-offensive engine.

My Response: I think we all know and appreciate the Bucks winning a championship. Injuries to Brooklyn. Injuries to the Clippers. Injuries to LeBron and AD.

To add RE Defense: Miami was not a good offensive team, though holding them to < 100 Ortg is impressive. Brooklyn had an offense which was capable of the 134 Ortg outburst but Milwaukee was adequate in stopping a KD/Kyrie offense over the first 3 games and then a much worse Brooklyn offense and team overall post-injury which still went to 7 games. Atlanta literally put up a better offensive rating against Milwaukee than they did against the 76ers in the previous round

To add RE Offense: Atlanta and Brooklyn were historically bad defenses for 2nd and 3rd round teams. Both of them ranked in the mid-20s for Defensive Rating. The Finals performance was impressive offensively, especially the way he ended the series.

[Colbinii]

And yet Jrue was so miscast last year that his impact and numbers were terrific. He led the team in On/Off and +/-, posted his best high-usage season in 5 years and put up 19/5/7.

I think we all know and appreciate the Bucks winning a championship. Injuries to Brooklyn. Injuries to the Clippers. Injuries to LeBron and AD.

Can't use this "he had an easy championship run" excuse for Jokic at all. Nope.

Not saying you don't have a general point here, but I'd say the only series that was really against a weak opponent compared to what you'd expect was the Finals, playing against the team that eliminated Giannis' team. The Lakers might seem weak because they were a 7th seed, but they weren't playing anything like a 7th seed come playoff time.

Without getting into the weeds to deep...

A Healthy Clippers team is the best team in the West, and Kawhi wasn't having this injury doom and gloom yet as 2021 was the first year of 3 where he was routinely injured. That Clippers team matched up much better against the Bucks than the Suns and had more talent [Notably Kawhi and PG13] with Paul George playing as well as he ever had prior to Kawhi's injury [29/10/5 in the WCSF against Utah on 59 TS% and 32% USG%].

The Brookyn team never fully formed, but they were quite literally a hand-length away from winning the series outright against Milwaukee even with the injuries.

Hell, the suns won the WCF with Booker and CP3 49% and 52% TS% while both had > 30% USG%.

Giannis is a terrific player, but I personally still have major question marks regarding his "Helio-Centric" offenses and their actual success in the post-season compared to just about every other Helio-Centric Star who has come around in the past 20 years.

[DCasey91]

In terms of absolute peak (1 year 2023/2021 for each) and relative peak (3 year) I give it to Jokic buts it’s very close.

Both are ATG that’s obvious. My concern with Giannis is with team orientation and conversion (FT). Practically speaking he had as close to a perfect setup as likely to get. There has been somewhat of underperformance relative to heights of RS play in a number of PO series.

Whereas Jokic rises a touch. And whenever he had a team around him the results were let’s say awesome.

I do think players like Jrue, Middleton, Lopez remains more stable with Giannis on/off against Porter Jr, Gordon specifically.

Both setups can run into health concerns. What’s interesting to note is how great Murray is when it matters. Like him a lot since College ever since he was torching the circuit and it seems to well and truely translate in big games and PO series.

I do think Jokic will win again as he’s in the midst of his peak, whereas with Giannis he’s still in his prime but I think he’s already peaked.

Giannis is on season 11
Jokic is on season 9

Add on the different play style I think it’s evident the decline of play (mileage, health, capacity to carry freak athleticism/motor for periods at a time)

[Peregrine01]

Since playoffs is the barometer by which the great players are judged then I think it's Jokic. Giannis finished the 2021 playoffs spectacularly but he's also had a lot of series where he looked completely stymied in a half-court offense. And since half-court offense is so integral in playoff settings where transition opportunities are fewer, pace is lower and defenses can get more physical, I think his weakness here is more glaring compared to Jokic who might well be the greatest half-court offensive player we've seen.

[AussieBuck]

Both are ATG that’s obvious. My concern with Giannis is with team orientation and conversion (FT). Practically speaking he had as close to a perfect setup as likely to get. There has been somewhat of underperformance relative to heights of RS play in a number of PO series.

This is just wildly off. Until this season, Giannis has always lacked a guard to play off. It's been anything but perfect with Giannis for years having to create playoff offense from beyond the three point line facing a wall of defenders. There's a reason the Bucks came up with the fake drive into dribble handoff thing for Middleton to create some two man action. We never had a guy who could pass to him while having a shot you had to respect. And that action isn't something you can just spam because Middleton can't dribble facing the basket under any pressure.

The Bucks coaching this season is an absolute dumpster fire but Giannis is playing on easy mode on offense for the first time because he has Lillard to play with. Watching the games it's clear he's using a ton less energy on offense and is less tired overall, even with the headless chook defense going on everywhere.

[DCasey91]

Both are ATG that’s obvious. My concern with Giannis is with team orientation and conversion (FT). Practically speaking he had as close to a perfect setup as likely to get. There has been somewhat of underperformance relative to heights of RS play in a number of PO series.

This is just wildly off. Until this season, Giannis has always lacked a guard to play off. It's been anything but perfect with Giannis for years having to create playoff offense from beyond the three point line facing a wall of defenders. There's a reason the Bucks came up with the fake drive into dribble handoff thing for Middleton to create some two man action. We never had a guy who could pass to him while having a shot you had to respect. And that action isn't something you can just spam because Middleton can't dribble facing the basket under any pressure.

The Bucks coaching this season is an absolute dumpster fire but Giannis is playing on easy mode on offense for the first time because he has Lillard to play with. Watching the games it's clear he's using a ton less energy on offense and is less tired overall, even with the headless chook defense going on everywhere.

Cmon now, You have shooters with size (Middleton/Lopez), you had a POA attack defender in Jrue Holiday, rebounding on ball facilitator.

You can’t have your cake and eat it too. And I said as close to perfect. The old diatribe of non shooter + 4x besides him.

The main problem I see is very much like a Lebron one except he isn’t an all time playmaker, worse shooter and worse from the line.

Suns were far too small and not defensive set to combat Giannis/Lopez/Holiday especially on O rebounds so it goes both ways dude. And what do you know he played closer to the rim.

Over monopoly on Giannis ball makes it so teams with personnel and structure can expose it. Heat have been the kryptonite for good reason, Boston/Raptors same commonality showing.

More of a Half court setting, slower pace and the obvious FT woes

You can’t just build a wall against Jokic for comparison sake.

[AussieBuck]

Both are ATG that’s obvious. My concern with Giannis is with team orientation and conversion (FT). Practically speaking he had as close to a perfect setup as likely to get. There has been somewhat of underperformance relative to heights of RS play in a number of PO series.

This is just wildly off. Until this season, Giannis has always lacked a guard to play off. It's been anything but perfect with Giannis for years having to create playoff offense from beyond the three point line facing a wall of defenders. There's a reason the Bucks came up with the fake drive into dribble handoff thing for Middleton to create some two man action. We never had a guy who could pass to him while having a shot you had to respect. And that action isn't something you can just spam because Middleton can't dribble facing the basket under any pressure.

The Bucks coaching this season is an absolute dumpster fire but Giannis is playing on easy mode on offense for the first time because he has Lillard to play with. Watching the games it's clear he's using a ton less energy on offense and is less tired overall, even with the headless chook defense going on everywhere.

Cmon now, You have shooters with size (Middleton/Lopez), POA attack defender in Jrue Holiday, rebounding on ball facilitator.

You can’t have your cake and eat it too. And I said as close to perfect. The old diatribe of non shooter + 4x besides him.

The main problem I see is very much like a Lebron one except he isn’t an all time playmaker and worse from the line.

Suns were far too small and not defensive set to combat Giannis/Lopez/Holiday especially on O rebounds so it’s goes both ways dude. And what do you know he played closer to the rim.

Over monopoly on Giannis ball makes it so teams with personnel and structure can expose it. Heat have been the kryptonite for good reason, Boston/Raptors same commonality showing.

More of a Half court setting, slower pace and the obvious FT woes

You can’t just build a wall against Jokic for comparison sake.

You claimed he had as close to a perfect setup as you can get when the absolute number one thing he always needed was a guard to play off so he wasn't setting up from 28 feet. Your argument here goes right to talking about all the things that have been an issue because of this very factor.

[DCasey91]

This is just wildly off. Until this season, Giannis has always lacked a guard to play off. It's been anything but perfect with Giannis for years having to create playoff offense from beyond the three point line facing a wall of defenders. There's a reason the Bucks came up with the fake drive into dribble handoff thing for Middleton to create some two man action. We never had a guy who could pass to him while having a shot you had to respect. And that action isn't something you can just spam because Middleton can't dribble facing the basket under any pressure.

The Bucks coaching this season is an absolute dumpster fire but Giannis is playing on easy mode on offense for the first time because he has Lillard to play with. Watching the games it's clear he's using a ton less energy on offense and is less tired overall, even with the headless chook defense going on everywhere.

Cmon now, You have shooters with size (Middleton/Lopez), POA attack defender in Jrue Holiday, rebounding on ball facilitator.

You can’t have your cake and eat it too. And I said as close to perfect. The old diatribe of non shooter + 4x besides him.

The main problem I see is very much like a Lebron one except he isn’t an all time playmaker and worse from the line.

Suns were far too small and not defensive set to combat Giannis/Lopez/Holiday especially on O rebounds so it’s goes both ways dude. And what do you know he played closer to the rim.

Over monopoly on Giannis ball makes it so teams with personnel and structure can expose it. Heat have been the kryptonite for good reason, Boston/Raptors same commonality showing.

More of a Half court setting, slower pace and the obvious FT woes

You can’t just build a wall against Jokic for comparison sake.

You claimed he had as close to a perfect setup as you can get when the absolute number one thing he always needed was a guard to play off so he wasn't setting up from 28 feet. Your argument here goes right to talking about all the things that have been an issue because of this very factor.

And look at how that is going atm. (19th defence currently)

Tired of detracting, devaluating, overvaluing things for the sake of argument. Jrue was great for them

Don’t even listen to me

Others have shared basically the same concern especially in an PO setting and it’s as plain as day to see.

I’m much more comfortable with Jokic with a basic rudimentary setup (2 wings, guard and a 4) over Giannis.

[AussieBuck]

Cmon now, You have shooters with size (Middleton/Lopez), POA attack defender in Jrue Holiday, rebounding on ball facilitator.

You can’t have your cake and eat it too. And I said as close to perfect. The old diatribe of non shooter + 4x besides him.

The main problem I see is very much like a Lebron one except he isn’t an all time playmaker and worse from the line.

Suns were far too small and not defensive set to combat Giannis/Lopez/Holiday especially on O rebounds so it’s goes both ways dude. And what do you know he played closer to the rim.

Over monopoly on Giannis ball makes it so teams with personnel and structure can expose it. Heat have been the kryptonite for good reason, Boston/Raptors same commonality showing.

More of a Half court setting, slower pace and the obvious FT woes

You can’t just build a wall against Jokic for comparison sake.

You claimed he had as close to a perfect setup as you can get when the absolute number one thing he always needed was a guard to play off so he wasn't setting up from 28 feet. Your argument here goes right to talking about all the things that have been an issue because of this very factor.

And look at how that is going atm. (19th defence currently)

Tired of detracting, devaluating, overvaluing things for the sake of argument. Jrue was great for them

Don’t even listen to me

Others have shared basically the same concern especially in an PO setting and it’s as plain as day to see.

I’m much more comfortable with Jokic with a basic rudimentary setup (2 wings, guard and a 4) over Giannis.

Yeah ok, this is you doing the classic internet thing of refusing to accept you were wrong or in any way engaging with my posts and doing a slalom skiing run with the goalposts. Have a good one dude.

[MyUniBroDavis]

5 out would work a lot better for the bucks if they didn’t just stand around when teams stunted and recovered lol

[OhayoKD]

Just going by numbers I'd say Jokic has an easier 1-year case but Giannis probably has the stronger prime case. Additionally it's easier to argue Giannis is being borked by situation/coaching than I think it is for Nikola.

Inb4 people throw in some made-up numbers to pretend Jokic is some historic statistical outlier

Do you have to use the obnoxious "made-up numbers" comment? No one is making up numbers, they are using actual numbers, they just may interpret them differently than you do.

Not really. The disagreement is not about us looking at the same data and coming to different conclusions. It is about the value of the portions of data observed to construct in the first place and the process by which they are produced. This is a matter of epistemology, not interpretation.

Iow, I am not interpreting the same data differently, I am questioning the "realness" of data which has been constructed by humans(aka "made-up") on the assumption they correlate with the most common standard applied(effect on winning, and winning) as opposed to a bunch of alternatives which would lead to radically different conclusions with the same etymological assumptions.

You can of course prefer a formula constructed on the basis of points and assists as opposed to one constructed on the basis of progressive carries and blowbys, but that does not change both statistics are similarly made-up with the same degree of separation from just directly(or near-directly) measuring an objective.

Dispute what I am determining as an objective or the bar i use for "actual data", but I am not using the term "made-up" to be obnoxious, I am using it because I think it is useful.

Another way of putting this: if Jokic is more of a statistical outlier because of grades PER or such metrics, he is also be less of a statistical outlier by an infinite amount of box-scores that counted more of things he does less(like various types of defensive actions).

[OhayoKD]

Just going by numbers I'd say Jokic has an easier 1-year case but Giannis probably has the stronger prime case. Additionally it's easier to argue Giannis is being borked by situation/coaching than I think it is for Nikola.

Inb4 people throw in some made-up numbers to pretend Jokic is some historic statistical outlier

Hmm, so first:

1. Let me first acknowledge that this is a bumped thread and so we need to be careful getting into debates even with the new posts.

2. Jokic is a historic outlier, and it is showing up in the statistics. Not saying this as a knock on Giannis, but we've clearly never seen anyone all that similar to Jokic.

1. Don't feel pressured to engage further

2. Unless you are referring to formulas constructed on a set of subjectively chosen, defined, and weighted set of basketball actions(PER, IBM, paint-load per possession) of which Jokic can be made to look alot worse or alot better depending on what one chooses...

I'd say Jokic is no more of an "Outlier" than Giannis is empirically:

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2299872&p=110066251&hilit=giannis#p110066251
(control f for "challenger")

TLDR

Spoiler:

-> similarish WOWY for rs and playoffs, if you went for a single-year jokic's 2023 has the most favorable upside I think assuming no teammate improvement in the postseason, but Giannis has an rs advantage with 19/20
-> similarish RAPM though I guess i'd give jokic an edge without longetivity considerations
-> Jokic a decent rs on/off advantage, giannis a big playoff on/off advantage
-> giannis's teams improve more in a raw-rating sense but wif you used a more binary approach like "srs-titles" or whatever giannis might come at a disadvantage(
-> giannis sports a longetivity advantage that is potentially suppressing averages to a degree
-> split apm-box hybrids though as mentioned, i think that's of dubious utility comparing defensive juggernaut with an offensive one

Personally, I would not use that term when there is someone who has multiple years that punk Jokic via the cold-stuff(I can elaborate on that label if you want) by nearly any approach still in the league. Like really, purely statistically, I'd say Embid has a stronger case vs Jokic(better looking rapm, much better playoff on/off) than Jokic does against you-know-who(only advantage i can come up with for Jokic is a 1-year .7 rs on/off edge that immedately goes to **** in the postseason).

I'm also kind of surprised you're so high on Jokic statistically when he does so poorly in terms of playoff on/off, a metric you have put serious stock in before when it shows the same trends over several playoff-runs. He might be the modern WOAT among superstars on that front.

3. I'm not going to say folks are crazy for continuing to side with Giannis. Time will tell how it all plays out.

But with all that said, I have a tough time with the whole "he had worse coaches" thing when:

1. He's far less smart on the court than the other guy.
2. He pulled the "I want this coach!" card and made things worse.

Beyond that, the idea that Jokic has had more help than Giannis just doesn't add up to me. Only one of these guys has had the luxury of regularly playing with all-star level players for years, and it's not Jokic.

3. I don't think I ever said Jokic has had more help than Giannis. Given the Bucks have been the more successful regular season and playoff team, I don't really see why that would even need to be argued in the first place.

I can also conversely point out, despite being a player whose presence and effort has repeatedly correlated with insane defensive fluctations on a team-level over extended samples, prime Giannis has never been outscored, and outassisted(while handling the ball less) than a teammate for a whole playoff run like Jokic was by Murray, including a not so close series loss against the Lakers when Murray was driving again and again against the likes of Davis, Howard, and Lebron.

I don't think looking at a player or two isolated is that helpful.

4. As I've said before, I'm fine with counting off-court negatives as long as we count positives. If the Bucks do succeed this year, Giannis deserves alot of credit for pressuring his organization to get Lillard.

[SportsGuru08]

Judging off their respective championship runs, Giannis gets the edge. Not that Jokic didn't play well, it's just that Phoenix was a much tougher opponent than Miami.

[Gregoire]

Giannis slightly, but its matter of preference... 50/50 comparison at their best.