RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Kobe Bryant)

Moderators: trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ

DraymondGold
Senior
Posts: 696
And1: 900
Joined: May 19, 2022

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#61 » by DraymondGold » Tue Aug 8, 2023 6:11 am

DraymondGold wrote:Oscar vs West: Team Offenses
...
Adding Kobe! West and Oscar played age 22–35. Let’s look at Kobe age 21–34 (2000–2013, i.e. first non-negative RAPM year until achilles injury).

Regular Season Offenses:
-Oscar Career rORTG: +3.3 (+3.3 without rookie/last year, +2.6 without Kareem/rookie years)
-West Career rORTG: +2.1 (+2.6 without rookie/last year, +2.5 without Wilt/rookie years)
-Kobe sample rORTG: +3.2 (+3.3 without first/last year, +2.9 without Shaq/last years)

5-year stretches of +3 rORTG: Oscar has 7 (4 without Kareem), Kobe has 7 (4 without Shaq), West 0.
Single year stretches with +3 rORTG: Oscar has 8 (4 without Kareem), Kobe has 7 (3 without Shaq), West 4 (2 without Wilt).
Single year stretches with +5 rORTG: Oscar has 2 (+7.1 in ’71, 5.8 in ’72, both with Kareem) , Kobe has 2 (+5.4 in ’01, +5.5 in ’08, one with Shaq), West has 2 (+5.1 in ’68 and +6.1 in ’72, one with Wilt).

Takeaways: In regular season, Oscar & Kobe' offenses > West. Oscar was slightly more consistent without Kareem and slightly better peaks with Kareem, though Kobe and West had slightly higher highs than Oscar without their all-time big men.[/u]

Postseason Offenses:
-Oscar Career PS rORTG: +3.8 (+3.5 without rookie/last year, +3.9 without rookie/Kareem years)
-West Career PS rORTG: +4.0 (+4.1 without rookie/last year, +6.0 without rookie/Wilt years).
-Kobe sample PS rORTG: +5.8 (+5.4 without first/last year, +4.7 without last/Shaq years)

5-year stretches with +4 PS rORTG: Kobe has 7 (4 without Shaq), West has 6 (4 without Wilt), Oscar 2.
5-year stretches with +5 PS rORTG: Kobe has 6 (4 without Shaq), West has 4 (3 without Wilt), Oscar 0.
3-year stretches with +5 PS rORTG: Kobe has 6 (3 without Shaq), West has 5 (5 without Wilt!), Oscar 1.
Single year stretch with +5 PS rORTG: Kobe has 7 (3 without Shaq: +6.8 in ’08, +6.4 in ’09, +6.9 in ’20), West has 4 (3 without Wilt: +8.6 in ’63, +6.9 in ’65 without Baylor, +7.8 in ’66), Oscar has 3 (2 without Kareem: +7 in ’63, + 7.2 in ’66).

Takeaways: In the playoffs, West's offenses >= Kobe > Oscar. Kobe seems to have the best on average, but the advantage comes pre-peak Kobe during peak Shaq (though there is a case for good scalability for that team). West looks better than Kobe or Oscar during their respective peaks without their all-time big men. West has the better average in the non Wilt/Kareem/Shaq years, the better 3-year samples, and the better single-year samples

Edit: Obligatory qualifier, 1) these are team stats. They depend on teammates, not just the single star. 2) These three played 40 years apart so the offenses look very different across these two eras. 3) Defense matters, both individually and when looking at team results.
But since there’s a focus on team offense for these players, I thought it would be interesting to compare the results.
iggymcfrack
RealGM
Posts: 11,959
And1: 9,438
Joined: Sep 26, 2017

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#62 » by iggymcfrack » Tue Aug 8, 2023 6:29 am

One_and_Done wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:This has the potential to be a great thread, with a 3 way contest between West, Kobe & D.Rob. it's verty early, but right now it's Kobe 4, West 3, D.Rob 2, Mikan 1, with West ahead on preferences


That’s interesting. I’m very locked in on D. Rob as my main vote, but for my alternate I’d probably say Dirk > Oscar > West in order of preference, but it looks like West > Oscar > Dirk is the order for traction, and I like all those guys over Kobe so I’ll probably wait a while before making an actual voting post.


I think you're better served posting now to establish D.Rob's case and getting the debate moving. If you wait too long there is less chance of convincing others, and a risk D.Rob will not be seen as viable by potential voters. Better to just list your alternate as TBD.


Yeah, I’ll make arguments before my official voting post. I was actually starting to write one out earlier, but got distracted before finishing it. The upshot is that ‘99 D-Rob in the playoffs is actually much closer to peak Kobe and Dirk than late career Oscar and West.
70sFan
RealGM
Posts: 30,185
And1: 25,457
Joined: Aug 11, 2015
 

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#63 » by 70sFan » Tue Aug 8, 2023 6:41 am

OhayoKD wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:Thinking Bryant is a modern player but not Nowitzki is an interesting take...I mean they played at the same exact time, and more players today are modeled after Nowitzki (or what they think Nowitzki was) than Kobe Bryant.

If anything Kobe's arch type is more of a throw back. Only Kawhi Leonard I think has a really similar tone. I suppose Jayson Tatum as well. Generally speaking, it's not really considered effective to play in that style.

I don't necessarily think a lot of people play like Nowitzki but as I said they kind of stereotype what he was (a big guy who hits jumpers and plays from the perimeter). Even though bigs hitting jumpers has always been around, it's become more embraced on a mainstream level since Nowitzki was a dominant player. Pretty much any European big who can hit a jumper is compared to Nowitzki.

That doesn't really follow. It's easier to stand out when what you do is as common. And I think that's an especially wierd way to frame things with Kobe. Big's hitting jumpers is probably less valuable now than it would have been in the 2000's

"any european big' can be compared to dirk, but how many of these jumpshooting bigs are actually "extremely effective". The only player really is Jokic who is an all-time passer and, relative to his position, has unusually strong ball-handling. I don't think "everyone is compared to dirk" actually leads to the conclusion you think it does. Unless they can scale up to keep pace with the rest of the league, a big hitting jumpers today is less valuable than they would be in 2011.

Dirk isn't just a jumpshooting big though, he himself had a strong handles for a bigman and his scoring game was extremely versatile.
OhayoKD
Head Coach
Posts: 6,042
And1: 3,933
Joined: Jun 22, 2022

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#64 » by OhayoKD » Tue Aug 8, 2023 7:02 am

70sFan wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:Thinking Bryant is a modern player but not Nowitzki is an interesting take...I mean they played at the same exact time, and more players today are modeled after Nowitzki (or what they think Nowitzki was) than Kobe Bryant.

If anything Kobe's arch type is more of a throw back. Only Kawhi Leonard I think has a really similar tone. I suppose Jayson Tatum as well. Generally speaking, it's not really considered effective to play in that style.

I don't necessarily think a lot of people play like Nowitzki but as I said they kind of stereotype what he was (a big guy who hits jumpers and plays from the perimeter). Even though bigs hitting jumpers has always been around, it's become more embraced on a mainstream level since Nowitzki was a dominant player. Pretty much any European big who can hit a jumper is compared to Nowitzki.

That doesn't really follow. It's easier to stand out when what you do is as common. And I think that's an especially wierd way to frame things with Kobe. Big's hitting jumpers is probably less valuable now than it would have been in the 2000's

"any european big' can be compared to dirk, but how many of these jumpshooting bigs are actually "extremely effective". The only player really is Jokic who is an all-time passer and, relative to his position, has unusually strong ball-handling. I don't think "everyone is compared to dirk" actually leads to the conclusion you think it does. Unless they can scale up to keep pace with the rest of the league, a big hitting jumpers today is less valuable than they would be in 2011.

Dirk isn't just a jumpshooting big though, he himself had a strong handles for a bigman and his scoring game was extremely versatile.

And all of that is more common now. There are several superstar bigs with stronger or comparable handles today. Bigs have seen a spike in scoring versatility.

Dirk's strengths are less of an outlier. So, even assuming talent plays no factor, Dirk either is scaling up his raw production/effeciency significantly or he's worse.
OhayoKD
Head Coach
Posts: 6,042
And1: 3,933
Joined: Jun 22, 2022

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#65 » by OhayoKD » Tue Aug 8, 2023 7:22 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:That doesn't really follow. It's easier to stand out when what you do is as common. And I think that's an especially wierd way to frame things with Kobe. Big's hitting jumpers is probably less valuable now than it would have been in the 2000's

"any european big' can be compared to dirk, but how many of these jumpshooting bigs are actually "extremely effective". The only player really is Jokic who is an all-time passer and, relative to his position, has unusually strong ball-handling. I don't think "everyone is compared to dirk" actually leads to the conclusion you think it does. Unless they can scale up to keep pace with the rest of the league, a big hitting jumpers today is less valuable than they would be in 2011.


Players who can shoot are used more optimally than they were in Kobe and Dirk's time. You're trying to equate scarcity with effectiveness. More players play like Kevin Garnett now than in 2004 (or his skill set is more coveted), that would mean that if Garnett played today he would be used more optimally than his own time. It doesn't mean that "well, we have Kevin Garnett's of our own, so who needs his rude ass!".

Notice how I said, "unless he can scale up to keep pace with the rest of the league"? Scarcity helps determine effectiveness. Optimization is only compensating for that if Dirk scales up sufficiently "optimized". And no I not have KG faring better today because I do not think he scales up enough to function as helio or offensive #1 and outweigh the spike in passing ability, defensive versatility, and ball-handling in bigs(not giannis level power/rim-gravity being a significant hindrance).

And this really makes little sense as an argument against Kobe who,

A. is "more scarce"
and
B. was clearly not optimized as a scoring wing in the 2000's who was asked to isolate at high volume withour illegal d(and was efficient in virtually every play-type).

Kobe is also not a big-man which makes the limited defensive value much easier to swallow.

I don't know what you mean by Jokic is the only player who is effective at that. Do you mean he is the only superstar who does that? Nearly every team has a big who can shoot or play from the outside. That isn't just Jokic, unless you're trying to say something else.
[/quote]
Yes. I'd say Jokic is the only superstar big who isn't two-way.

That "every big shoots and plays from outside" does not benefit Dirk. If Dirk is lining up against bigs who can shoot or play from outside, his shooting and playing from outside offers his own team less of an advantage than it did when not "every team had nearly any big who can shoot or play from outside".

I don't know how "only kawhi and tatum"(super valuable players when healthy) having Kobe's profile hurt him here. Is there a reason you have Dirk's "optimization" outstripping an optimized Bryant? Otherwise your argument would lead to Kobe translating better. Not "equally" and not "worse".



Kobe's "playstyle" is theoretically viable because he is good or very good at everything related to offense(without need for a "for position" caveat). Dirk is not very good as a passer or a ball-handler. Why would Dirk translate as well as Bryant?
OhayoKD
Head Coach
Posts: 6,042
And1: 3,933
Joined: Jun 22, 2022

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#66 » by OhayoKD » Tue Aug 8, 2023 7:35 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:You know what, I think this is genuinely going to be the toughest vote for me so far. Well, for my secondary vote anyway, because Mikan will be my main vote again.

But for my secondary vote I'm choosing between West and Kobe - who are currently tied at 5 - and I'm surprising myself. I fully expected that Kobe would be my vote here now that Bird is in, but the more I look at the numbers and others' arguments, the more I find myself starting to lean towards West.

Kobe averaged a +2.4 rTS for his first 17 years(ignoring his post-achilles years); West averaged a +5.6 rTS for his career.

In the playoffs, in absolute terms, they both had a 54% TS for their careers, except West achieved that during a period of time where the average league-average was 49.1%, while for Kobe it was 53.1%.

It seems pretty clear-cut that West was significantly more efficient relative to his competition.

We don't have a whole lot of defensive data, but we have all the contemporary commentary on his defense that's been posted in this thread as well as the extrapolated box data(steals/blocks) suggesting West would've been elite in those categories had they been kept track of.

Raw assists might be a rudimentary way of comparing playmaking(especially since turnovers weren't tracked for West so we can't even compare assist/turnover ratio), but West has a clear advantage there too: 6.7apg RS and 6.3apg PO compared to Kobe's 4.7apg RS and 4.7apg PO. West averaged 6+ assists 9 times, 7+ 4 times, 8+ 3 times, and 9+ time in the RS, while Kobe averaged 6+ 3 times and 7+ zero times; in the playoffs West averaged 7+ 4 times and 8+ 2 times, while Kobe averaged 6+ just once.
West

Now, on the other hand, West's assist numbers there are not pace-adjusted so the gap is exaggerated, I'm sure, but it's still there.

There is a frustrating lack of data available for West(as with all players from that era), but the data we do have seems to be in West's favor. Moreover, one of the big selling points for Kobe is longevity, and as you should all know by now, I don't weight that as strongly as some you do.

I'm not voting yet, but I'm much less sure of a Kobe vote at this point than I was just yesterday. I'm open to counter-arguments.



Based on the information we have I don't think Kobe really does have anything in his favor other than being more healthy during their primes. Kobe won more and played in a more modern era, and is more healthy.

But breaking down their games and how they impacted the court it seems like West was the better guard.

For pure era-relativists Kobe also has the advantage of not being doomed to lose in the playoffs to more valuable players every year. Which, for people who value corpish criteria, is the biggest reason West has 1 ring while Kobe has 5.

As is Oscar was probably more valuable than West despite not being considered an excellent defender so we get back to what the value of elite guard defense(paticularly in the 60's where there was a dearth of elite perimiter engines)
One_and_Done
General Manager
Posts: 9,512
And1: 5,677
Joined: Jun 03, 2023

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#67 » by One_and_Done » Tue Aug 8, 2023 7:42 am

In today's NBA Dirk would be taking more 3s and would be even more valuable.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
OhayoKD
Head Coach
Posts: 6,042
And1: 3,933
Joined: Jun 22, 2022

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#68 » by OhayoKD » Tue Aug 8, 2023 7:44 am

One_and_Done wrote:In today's NBA Dirk would be taking more 3s and would be even more valuable.

That is not how it works. Value is determined by relative production. Dirk taking more 3's inofitself doesn't do anything in a league where everyone is taking more 3's
One_and_Done
General Manager
Posts: 9,512
And1: 5,677
Joined: Jun 03, 2023

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#69 » by One_and_Done » Tue Aug 8, 2023 7:49 am

It does when he's crazy good at them.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
70sFan
RealGM
Posts: 30,185
And1: 25,457
Joined: Aug 11, 2015
 

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#70 » by 70sFan » Tue Aug 8, 2023 8:35 am

OhayoKD wrote:
70sFan wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:That doesn't really follow. It's easier to stand out when what you do is as common. And I think that's an especially wierd way to frame things with Kobe. Big's hitting jumpers is probably less valuable now than it would have been in the 2000's

"any european big' can be compared to dirk, but how many of these jumpshooting bigs are actually "extremely effective". The only player really is Jokic who is an all-time passer and, relative to his position, has unusually strong ball-handling. I don't think "everyone is compared to dirk" actually leads to the conclusion you think it does. Unless they can scale up to keep pace with the rest of the league, a big hitting jumpers today is less valuable than they would be in 2011.

Dirk isn't just a jumpshooting big though, he himself had a strong handles for a bigman and his scoring game was extremely versatile.

And all of that is more common now. There are several superstar bigs with stronger or comparable handles today. Bigs have seen a spike in scoring versatility.

Dirk's strengths are less of an outlier. So, even assuming talent plays no factor, Dirk either is scaling up his raw production/effeciency significantly or he's worse.

We have seen a spike in scoring versatility, but it's not like we see dozens of Dirk-esque scorers in the league right now. How many of them can be found - Jokic, Embiid and Towns? I wouldn't say Towns is really comparable and Embiid has clear postseason issues.

I don't support Dirk here, I think he belongs closer to the bottom of top 20, but I don't think that Dirk archetype is common now. Dirk isn't a stretch big, he's a 7 feet tall iso scorer with extremely resilient package, who also happened to be one of the best shooters ever.
70sFan
RealGM
Posts: 30,185
And1: 25,457
Joined: Aug 11, 2015
 

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#71 » by 70sFan » Tue Aug 8, 2023 8:38 am

OhayoKD wrote:Kobe's "playstyle" is theoretically viable because he is good or very good at everything related to offense(without need for a "for position" caveat). Dirk is not very good as a passer or a ball-handler. Why would Dirk translate as well as Bryant?

It depends on your definition of "very good", but Kobe wasn't a very good three point shooter (and he likely wouldn't today either) and I don't think he was very good finisher inside.
OhayoKD
Head Coach
Posts: 6,042
And1: 3,933
Joined: Jun 22, 2022

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#72 » by OhayoKD » Tue Aug 8, 2023 9:21 am

70sFan wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:
70sFan wrote:Dirk isn't just a jumpshooting big though, he himself had a strong handles for a bigman and his scoring game was extremely versatile.

And all of that is more common now. There are several superstar bigs with stronger or comparable handles today. Bigs have seen a spike in scoring versatility.

Dirk's strengths are less of an outlier. So, even assuming talent plays no factor, Dirk either is scaling up his raw production/effeciency significantly or he's worse.

We have seen a spike in scoring versatility, but it's not like we see dozens of Dirk-esque scorers in the league right now. How many of them can be found - Jokic, Embiid and Towns? I wouldn't say Towns is really comparable and Embiid has clear postseason issues.

I don't support Dirk here, I think he belongs closer to the bottom of top 20, but I don't think that Dirk archetype is common now. Dirk isn't a stretch big, he's a 7 feet tall iso scorer with extremely resilient package, who also happened to be one of the best shooters ever.

They do not need to be dirk esque. The claim is not that Dirk is a neutral player, it is that he has less relative value than he did in the 2000's. The counter-case would be that he was used so sub-optimally that in the current league his production would ramp up enough to compensate.

The exact archetype does not need to be common. His skills/strengths being approximated better than they were would suffice. The shooting(from really any rage) is more common. So is the ball-handling. People are also welcome to get butthurt about it but he also was a stretch big. He was various other things to but his range relative to his position was a bigger advantage then than it would be now. Cue the strawmen
OhayoKD
Head Coach
Posts: 6,042
And1: 3,933
Joined: Jun 22, 2022

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#73 » by OhayoKD » Tue Aug 8, 2023 9:22 am

70sFan wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Kobe's "playstyle" is theoretically viable because he is good or very good at everything related to offense(without need for a "for position" caveat). Dirk is not very good as a passer or a ball-handler. Why would Dirk translate as well as Bryant?

It depends on your definition of "very good", but Kobe wasn't a very good three point shooter (and he likely wouldn't today either) and I don't think he was very good finisher inside.

I guess you could say good.
70sFan
RealGM
Posts: 30,185
And1: 25,457
Joined: Aug 11, 2015
 

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#74 » by 70sFan » Tue Aug 8, 2023 9:50 am

OhayoKD wrote:
70sFan wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Kobe's "playstyle" is theoretically viable because he is good or very good at everything related to offense(without need for a "for position" caveat). Dirk is not very good as a passer or a ball-handler. Why would Dirk translate as well as Bryant?

It depends on your definition of "very good", but Kobe wasn't a very good three point shooter (and he likely wouldn't today either) and I don't think he was very good finisher inside.

I guess you could say good.

Was Kobe a "good" three point shooter in modern context though? I wouldn't say so, that would definitely be his relative weakness against other perimeter superstars.
One_and_Done
General Manager
Posts: 9,512
And1: 5,677
Joined: Jun 03, 2023

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#75 » by One_and_Done » Tue Aug 8, 2023 9:50 am

I find it pretty bizarre to hear that Dirk is 'less good in today's league' than Kobe, when in their most recent match up in 2011 Dirk cooked Kobe in a sweep. Kobe was either in his prime or close to in 2011, and Dirk looked like the better player.

It's Kobe whose play style doesn't work today. Even if we accepted the premise Dirk's style would be less valuable, and I don't, clearly that would be even moreso for Kobe.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
iggymcfrack
RealGM
Posts: 11,959
And1: 9,438
Joined: Sep 26, 2017

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#76 » by iggymcfrack » Tue Aug 8, 2023 9:53 am

Multi-year RAPM samples
(only including age 32-37 for David Robinson plus 6 games at age 31)

97-14 RAPM
David Robinson 4.51 (6th)
Dirk Nowitzki 4.22 (9th)
Kobe Bryant 2.96 (31st)

26 year RAPM
Dirk Nowitzki 6.0 (16th)
David Robinson 5.6 (20th)
Kobe Bryant 3.0 (73rd)

25 year RAPM
Dirk Nowitzki 3.89 (13th)
David Robinson 3.23 (29th)
Kobe Bryant 2.55 (59th)

The impact metrics might not agree on whether post-prime David Robinson was better than the average of full career Dirk, but they do agree that both were much better than Kobe. Ok, well how about instead of impact metrics, we use box metrics. Now we get Robinson's whole career, but he still doesn't get full value since you're missing a lot of what he gets out of his defense. And to make it fair, I'll just compare their best 14 season stretches since that's all Robinson played:

Regular season
David Robinson: 26.2 PER on .583 TS%, .250 WS/48, 7.5 BPM
Dirk Nowitzki: 24.2 PER on .585 TS%, .218 WS/48, 5.6 BPM
Kobe Bryant: 24.1 PER on .556 TS%, .190 WS/48, 5.4 BPM

Postseason
David Robinson: 23.0 PER on .547 TS%, .199 WS/48, 6.2 BPM
Dirk Nowitzki: 24.2 PER on .579 TS%, .196 WS/48, 6.2 BPM
Kobe Bryant: 23.0 PER on .543 TS%, .166 WS/48, 5.8 BPM

So, the impact stats say Dirk > D-Rob >> Kobe while missing Robinson's prime and the box stats say D-Rob > Dirk > Kobe while failing to account for Robinson's defense. I really don't see what the case for Kobe is other than he had a bunch of low value seasons where he put up numbers at the beginning and end of his career or that he played a lot of seasons with Shaq who carried him to a few rings. Seems pretty clear to me that D-Rob > Dirk > Kobe among the modern candidates.
iggymcfrack
RealGM
Posts: 11,959
And1: 9,438
Joined: Sep 26, 2017

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#77 » by iggymcfrack » Tue Aug 8, 2023 9:57 am

One_and_Done wrote:I find it pretty bizarre to hear that Dirk is 'less good in today's league' than Kobe, when in their most recent match up in 2011 Dirk cooked Kobe in a sweep. Kobe was either in his prime or close to in 2011, and Dirk looked like the better player.

It's Kobe whose play style doesn't work today. Even if we accepted the premise Dirk's style would be less valuable, and I don't, clearly that would be even moreso for Kobe.


Kobe would be better today only because now that people value impact, efficiency, and team ball over PPG, he wouldn't play such a selfish style. Now, when he tried to play for stats, the stats he played for would actually help the team win. He doesn't get a retroactive bonus for that though.
One_and_Done
General Manager
Posts: 9,512
And1: 5,677
Joined: Jun 03, 2023

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#78 » by One_and_Done » Tue Aug 8, 2023 10:16 am

iggymcfrack wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:I find it pretty bizarre to hear that Dirk is 'less good in today's league' than Kobe, when in their most recent match up in 2011 Dirk cooked Kobe in a sweep. Kobe was either in his prime or close to in 2011, and Dirk looked like the better player.

It's Kobe whose play style doesn't work today. Even if we accepted the premise Dirk's style would be less valuable, and I don't, clearly that would be even moreso for Kobe.


Kobe would be better today only because now that people value impact, efficiency, and team ball over PPG, he wouldn't play such a selfish style. Now, when he tried to play for stats, the stats he played for would actually help the team win. He doesn't get a retroactive bonus for that though.

Except we have 20 years of his career to judge from, during which time he continually refused to play differently, even when his coach demanded it. We have 2 books by one of those coaches in which he spends chapters on the subject. Remember how Mike D was supposed to be the perfect fit? Yeh, turns out Kobe wouldn't adjust for him either. The last 2 years of Kobe's career it was so obvious Kobe has to play differently, and he refused. I just don't think we can make the assumption he'd play in a more optimal way.
Warspite wrote:Billups was a horrible scorer who could only score with an open corner 3 or a FT.
OhayoKD
Head Coach
Posts: 6,042
And1: 3,933
Joined: Jun 22, 2022

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#79 » by OhayoKD » Tue Aug 8, 2023 11:19 am

iggymcfrack wrote:
One_and_Done wrote:I find it pretty bizarre to hear that Dirk is 'less good in today's league' than Kobe, when in their most recent match up in 2011 Dirk cooked Kobe in a sweep. Kobe was either in his prime or close to in 2011, and Dirk looked like the better player.

It's Kobe whose play style doesn't work today. Even if we accepted the premise Dirk's style would be less valuable, and I don't, clearly that would be even moreso for Kobe.


Kobe would be better today only because now that people value impact, efficiency, and team ball over PPG, he wouldn't play such a selfish style. Now, when he tried to play for stats, the stats he played for would actually help the team win. He doesn't get a retroactive bonus for that though.

This is not a serious take...
Colbinii
RealGM
Posts: 34,243
And1: 21,858
Joined: Feb 13, 2013

Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #13 (Deadline 5:00AM PST on 8/10/23) 

Post#80 » by Colbinii » Tue Aug 8, 2023 12:55 pm

It is Dirk's time to shine

I am glad he is finally nominated as I have him above Bird in my all-time list.

First off, let's look at how exactly Dirk's teams fared in the post-season. Here are all his playoff failures and successes from 2001-2012 along with his relative-Ortg for this stretch.

2001: Dallas loses to a much better San Antonio team in the Conference Semi's.
2002: Dallas loses to a much better Sacramento team in the Conference Semi's.
2003: Dirk Gets hurt and Dallas loses in 6 to a San Antonio Spurs team with Peak Duncan [A better player than Dirk].
2004: Dallas loses to a better Sacramento team in the 1st round.
2005: Dallas loses to a better Phoenix team in the Conference Semi's.
2006: Dallas loses to Peak Wade and the Heat in the NBA Finals.
2007: This is a bad one.
2008: Dallas loses to a better Hornets team with [arguably] peak CP3 in round 1.
2009: Dallas loses to a much better Nuggets team with Peak Carmelo after beating a better Spurs team in round 1.
2010: Dallas loses to a much better San Antonio team in round 1.
2011: NBA Finals Victory
2012: Ran it back with an already over-the-hill roster, loses in round 1 to a significantly better Thunder team.

Very few blemishes here [2007 akin to 2011 LeBron James--though Dirk didn't have Dwyane Wade :lol: ].

2002 Mavs +7.7 rORtg in reg. season (1st) & +9.0 rORtg in playoffs
2003 Mavs +7.1 rORtg in reg. season (1st) & +11.9 rORtg in playoffs
2004 Mavs +9.0 rORtg in reg. season (1st) & -2.0 rORtg in playoffs (let's face it, this season should've never happened, :lol: )
2005 Mavs +4.2 rORtg in reg. season (4th) & +9.1 rORtg in playoffs
2006 Mavs +5.6 rORtg in reg. season (1st) & +7.9 rORtg in playoffs
2007 Mavs +4.8 rORtg in reg. season (2nd) & -0.8 rORtg in playoffs
2008 Mavs +3.6 rORtg in reg. season (8th) & +3.8 rORtg in playoffs
2009 Mavs +2.2 rORtg in reg. season (6th) & +7.4 rORtg in playoffs
2010 Mavs +1.6 rORtg in reg. season (10th) & +1.3 rORtg in playoffs
2011 Mavs +2.4 rORtg in reg. season (8th) & +7.3 rORtg in playoffs

On average, Dirk led +4.8 rORtg offense in regular seasons and +7.3 rORtg offense in playoffs over a decade.


The comparison between Kobe

From 2001-2012 Dirk averaged 25.9 points on 58.4 TS% in the post-season. During this stretch Dirk shot ~46% from mid-range and 38.4% from 3. His Individual Ortg/Drtg splits paint him at 118/107 [+11] during that span.

From 2000-2012 Kobe averaged 27.7 points on 54.3 TS% in the post-season. During this stretch Kobe shot ~42% from mid-range and 33.4% from 3. His individual Ortg/Drtg splits paint him at 110/106 [+4] during that span.

The comparison between Bird [post-season]

03-11: 106 Games, 33.5/13.4/3.5 119 ORtg, 58.6 TS%, .208 WS/48, 4.9 BPM, 7.5 VORP, 25 PER
84-88: 101 Games, 30.2/11.2/7.7 118 ORtg, 57.5 TS%, .191 WS/48, 7.6 BPM, 10.4 VORP, 22.7 PER

Vote #1: Dirk Nowitzki
Vote #2: Oscar Robertson
Nomination: Karl Malone [next on my list at #17]


Dirk - GOAT level offensive anchor [similar to Oscar]. His biggest strength is initiating not as a dribble/drive threat or near the basket, allowing for cutters/finishers near the hoop and other offensive on-ball stars on the perimeter. He scales exceptionally well into the post-season, played in an extremely difficult WC where his teams were outmatched on an annual basis.

Oscar - See previous thread but GOAT level production offensively in an era not lending itself easy for his archetype to succeed.

K Malone - Longevity King.

Return to Player Comparisons