RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #20 (Chris Paul)

[iggymcfrack]

Playoff games through age 34 (both had 12 playoff runs)
Chris Paul 109
Kevin Durant 166

You might want to add those to the above numbers.

Well sure, that makes sense. The guy with the vastly superior teammates tends to make deeper runs in the playoffs. Who woulda thought? FWIW, over that span, Chris Paul missed 6 playoff games and his team went 1-5 in the games he missed. Durant missed 12 playoff games over the same span and his teams went 8-4 when he was out.

Your games missed and games lost count seems low on Durant. 2020 Nets got swept without Durant plus the GS losses in his absence takes them over 4. That team was weaker than typical supporting casts and he hadn't been available at all to help their seed but that's' playoff games that he missed.

Yeah, I was looking through the “playoff series” tab and forgot the Nets made the playoffs in 2020. Although to be fair, he hadn’t played a single second for the Nets that year so I don’t know if he really even counts as “on the team” yet. Kind of a gray area.

[iggymcfrack]

CP3 can't be above legit best player in the world type of players like moses, erving, durant and pettit. he can be argued with barkley, but these guys are off limits.

Durant was never any closer to being best in the world than Barkley was. Moses and Pettit did it in weak leagues long ago.

[One_and_Done]

CP3 can't be above legit best player in the world type of players like moses, erving, durant and pettit. he can be argued with barkley, but these guys are off limits.

You're losing me when you include Pettit & Moses.

[iggymcfrack]

Current vote count

Induction: Paul 7, Erving 3, Durant 3
(Looks like Paul is going to take a very deserved spot in the top 20. Pretty impressed with the board for not falling into the trap of overrating Durant compared to more talented contemporaries he played with.)

Nomination: Nash 5, Moses 3, Jokic 3, Pettit 1, Stockton 1
Both Pettit and Stockton's votes go to Moses, making the count 5-5-3. At this point, one of the Jokic voters goes to Moses leaving a total count of Moses 6-5 over Nash
(Very close race for the nomination. Not only is it virtually a dead heat between Nash and Moses, but Jokic isn't too far behind to make up ground either.)

I wouldn't chalk up a CP3 victory yet. First, he had four votes when you posted this. Second, he has five now after my vote. Third, after secondary votes, it's 8-6 CP3 right now. Fourth, AFAIK there are seven voters from the last thread that haven't voted yet and only one of them seems like a sure CP3 vote based on his last vote.

This could end up being close. Which brings me to...

Vote: Kevin Durant: While Durant's personality and ability to elevate teammates is certainly questionable, he's been one of the NBA's all-time greatest scorers and a solid defender for well over a decade in what I classify as the strongest era in league history (albeit one that is easier to be an ATG scorer than any other). I think there's been a backlash against him that will die down a bit over time and this seems the right spot for him though, again, it's close with Julius who will probably be my next choice.

Alternative: Giannis: Actually was planning to vote Julius here and certainly Julius has a longevity advantage but while Julius was as amazing in the ABA as Giannis has been in the NBA, I don't think he was actually more amazing or dominating. And the modern league is bigger, deeper, and more competitive than late era ABA. So balancing, I came down on the side of Giannis.

Nomination: Jokic
Not sure this guy deserve this spot in front of guys like Frazier, Stockton, Moses, or Ewing, but not sure they don't. When in doubt, I will go with the active player knowing that sometimes I don't give them enough credit for what they've done.

Alternate Nomination: Moses Malone -- HUGE flaws but great strengths as well. Was a legit MVP and great player for a few years and a very good one for a lot more. I normally don't like bigs who don't pass but Moses led those Houston teams further than they should have gone then made the superteam in Philly work for at least a year.[/b] Moses Malone -- HUGE flaws but great strengths as well. Was a legit MVP and great player for a few years and a very good one for a lot more. I normally don't like bigs who don't pass but Moses led those Houston teams further than they should have gone then made the superteam in Philly work for at least a year.

PB, as I was saying above, I think CP3/Dr. J is going to be a close vote, and you have appeared to be sympathetic to Dr. J. If that is the case, you might consider changing your alternative vote to him, as Giannis has no chance this round.

You're completely wrong about Paul only having 4 first place votes at the time of my count. These are the votes I wrote down at the time.

Vote, Alt, Nom, Alt
Dr. J, KD, Pettit, Moses
Dr. J, (), Nash
CP3
CP3 (), Nash Wade
Dr. J, Barkley, Moses
CP3, Dr. J, Moses
KD, Dr. J, Nash
KD, CP3, Nash
(blank), (), Moses, Jokic
CP3, KD, Stockton, Moses
CP3, Dr. J, Nash
CP3, Dr. J, Jokic
KD, Giannis, Jokic, Moses
CP3, Giannis, Jokic

[f4p]

Playoffs only through age 34 (KD's current age)
Chris Paul: 24.2 PER on .581 TS%, .195 WS/48, 7.4 BPM, +7.0 NetRtg, +10.9 on/off
K. Durant: 24.1 PER on .598 TS%, .187 WS/48, 6.7 BPM, +5.9 NetRtg, +5.7 on/off...

Playoff games through age 34 (both had 12 playoff runs)
Chris Paul 109
Kevin Durant 166

You might want to add those to the above numbers.

I would say you would always want that there as a sample size thing for playoffs. I suppose also deeper runs would suggest some tough opponents though it wouldn't necessarily imply "tougher" than the other guy depending on typical seeding and if one cares to one could get a much more precise read on opponent quality.

Weighted by games

CP3 Opponents - 4.3 SRS, 106.3 DRtg
Durant Opponents - 4.4 SRS, 106.4 DRtg (does not include the 1 game against toronto)

crazy close

[OldSchoolNoBull]

Current vote count

Induction: Paul 7, Erving 3, Durant 3
(Looks like Paul is going to take a very deserved spot in the top 20. Pretty impressed with the board for not falling into the trap of overrating Durant compared to more talented contemporaries he played with.)

Nomination: Nash 5, Moses 3, Jokic 3, Pettit 1, Stockton 1
Both Pettit and Stockton's votes go to Moses, making the count 5-5-3. At this point, one of the Jokic voters goes to Moses leaving a total count of Moses 6-5 over Nash
(Very close race for the nomination. Not only is it virtually a dead heat between Nash and Moses, but Jokic isn't too far behind to make up ground either.)

I wouldn't chalk up a CP3 victory yet. First, he had four votes when you posted this. Second, he has five now after my vote. Third, after secondary votes, it's 8-6 CP3 right now. Fourth, AFAIK there are seven voters from the last thread that haven't voted yet and only one of them seems like a sure CP3 vote based on his last vote.

This could end up being close. Which brings me to...

Vote: Kevin Durant: While Durant's personality and ability to elevate teammates is certainly questionable, he's been one of the NBA's all-time greatest scorers and a solid defender for well over a decade in what I classify as the strongest era in league history (albeit one that is easier to be an ATG scorer than any other). I think there's been a backlash against him that will die down a bit over time and this seems the right spot for him though, again, it's close with Julius who will probably be my next choice.

Alternative: Giannis: Actually was planning to vote Julius here and certainly Julius has a longevity advantage but while Julius was as amazing in the ABA as Giannis has been in the NBA, I don't think he was actually more amazing or dominating. And the modern league is bigger, deeper, and more competitive than late era ABA. So balancing, I came down on the side of Giannis.

Nomination: Jokic
Not sure this guy deserve this spot in front of guys like Frazier, Stockton, Moses, or Ewing, but not sure they don't. When in doubt, I will go with the active player knowing that sometimes I don't give them enough credit for what they've done.

Alternate Nomination: Moses Malone -- HUGE flaws but great strengths as well. Was a legit MVP and great player for a few years and a very good one for a lot more. I normally don't like bigs who don't pass but Moses led those Houston teams further than they should have gone then made the superteam in Philly work for at least a year.[/b] Moses Malone -- HUGE flaws but great strengths as well. Was a legit MVP and great player for a few years and a very good one for a lot more. I normally don't like bigs who don't pass but Moses led those Houston teams further than they should have gone then made the superteam in Philly work for at least a year.

PB, as I was saying above, I think CP3/Dr. J is going to be a close vote, and you have appeared to be sympathetic to Dr. J. If that is the case, you might consider changing your alternative vote to him, as Giannis has no chance this round.

You're completely wrong about Paul only having 4 first place votes at the time of my count. These are the votes I wrote down at the time.

Vote, Alt, Nom, Alt
Dr. J, KD, Pettit, Moses
Dr. J, (), Nash
CP3
CP3 (), Nash Wade
Dr. J, Barkley, Moses
CP3, Dr. J, Moses
KD, Dr. J, Nash
KD, CP3, Nash
(blank), (), Moses, Jokic
CP3, KD, Stockton, Moses
CP3, Dr. J, Nash
CP3, Dr. J, Jokic
KD, Giannis, Jokic, Moses
CP3, Giannis, Jokic

Sorry, I wrote that unclearly. I meant Dr. J had 4 votes where you had him with 3. I don't dispute your count of CP3's votes. I have edited my post to be more clear.

[lessthanjake]

CP3 can't be above legit best player in the world type of players like moses, erving, durant and pettit. he can be argued with barkley, but these guys are off limits.

Durant was never any closer to being best in the world than Barkley was. Moses and Pettit did it in weak leagues long ago.

Does the “weak league” argument extend into the early 1980s now?

[One_and_Done]

Vote tally I have is Paul 7, Dr J 5, KD 3. Still a very open race.

Noms are Nash 6, Moses 4, Jokic 3, Pettit & Stockton 1

[rk2023]

Playoff games through age 34 (both had 12 playoff runs)
Chris Paul 109
Kevin Durant 166

You might want to add those to the above numbers.

I would say you would always want that there as a sample size thing for playoffs. I suppose also deeper runs would suggest some tough opponents though it wouldn't necessarily imply "tougher" than the other guy depending on typical seeding and if one cares to one could get a much more precise read on opponent quality.

Weighted by games

CP3 Opponents - 4.3 SRS, 106.3 DRtg
Durant Opponents - 4.4 SRS, 106.4 DRtg (does not include the 1 game against toronto)

crazy close

Is this referring to the entire span Iggy mentioned?

Here's 2011-16 KD vs. 2013-17 Paul, FWIW (I see those stretches as most comparable, responsibility wise. Worth noting, Durant has vastly more minutes played. I'm unsure how much's Paul would fluctuate if such were to be replicated to a larger minute load / against a more diverse slate of opponents. From what it seems, he has a fair share of series where he fares well against stellar defenses though):

Code: Select all

30.0 P/75 on +8.2% rTS -> 28.4 on 5.1%
2.2 -> 1.7 ScoreVal
45.7 O-Load -> 43.5
7.8 Box OC -> 6.6
4.8 Passer RTG -> 4.6
.4 PlayVal -> .3
4.7 PIPM
5.2 LEBRON
5.8 BPM -> 5.3 (4.0 OBPM)
4.3 AuPM/G -> 3.6

Code: Select all

21.7 P/75 on +5.1% rTS -> 24.8 on 7.8%
.6 -> 1.4 ScoreVal
48.9 O-Load -> 48.2
13.3 Box OC -> 13.7
8.5 Passer RTG -> 8.0
2.2 PlayVal -> 2.1
6.9 PIPM
6.3 LEBRON
6.3 BPM -> 7.5 (5.7 OBPM)
5.1 AuPM/G -> 4.8

[iggymcfrack]

CP3 can't be above legit best player in the world type of players like moses, erving, durant and pettit. he can be argued with barkley, but these guys are off limits.

Durant was never any closer to being best in the world than Barkley was. Moses and Pettit did it in weak leagues long ago.

Does the “weak league” argument extend into the early 1980s now?

There wasn’t a lot of competition for player of the year before Bird and Magic hit their peak. Bird was #2 in POY voting behind Moses in 1983 with these numbers:

Regular season: 24.1 PER on .561 TS%, .225 WS/48, 7.5 BPM
Postseason: 20.3 PER on .478 TS%, .134 WS/48, 7.4 BPM

Even if you don’t account for the much lower overall quality of the league, Paul still has at least 5 seasons that would easily clear that low bar.

[One_and_Done]

Vote: Chris Paul
Was looking at how many people have CP3 above Giannis and was thinking about it and if Paul has an average RAPM over an 18 year span that's higher than what Giannis has over a 10 year span, he probably deserves the spot ahead of him, right? Anyway, Paul's incredibly consistent advanced stats give him the spot here for me.

Alternate: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Easily the best 5 year peak of anyone currently nominated. Even if you compare him to Erving's ABA years, he comes out well ahead in the regular season and roughly even in the playoffs.

Nominate: Nikola Jokic
Only has Jordan-esque career numbers, all-time non-box impact, and the best single offensive season in NBA history. No big deal.

I think it'd be very much in your interests to give Nash your alternate nomination. At present that would put Nash ahead, and the Nash voters are going to be well aligned with the people you want to vote for. Plus I assume you have Nash ahead anyhow.

[f4p]

Vote tally I have is Paul 7, Dr J 5, KD 3. Still a very open race.

Noms are Nash 6, Moses 4, Jokic 3, Pettit & Stockton 1

nash over moses would just be wild and so out of line with nba history. a low longevity non-title winner who didn't even make the finals over a high-peak, moderate longevity dominant alpha-title winner who also has a carry-job finals appearance.

[f4p]

I would say you would always want that there as a sample size thing for playoffs. I suppose also deeper runs would suggest some tough opponents though it wouldn't necessarily imply "tougher" than the other guy depending on typical seeding and if one cares to one could get a much more precise read on opponent quality.

Weighted by games

CP3 Opponents - 4.3 SRS, 106.3 DRtg
Durant Opponents - 4.4 SRS, 106.4 DRtg (does not include the 1 game against toronto)

crazy close

Is this referring to the entire span Iggy mentioned?

yes, through age 34 season.

[One_and_Done]

Vote tally I have is Paul 7, Dr J 5, KD 3. Still a very open race.

Noms are Nash 6, Moses 4, Jokic 3, Pettit & Stockton 1

nash over moses would just be wild and so out of line with nba history. a low longevity non-title winner who didn't even make the finals over a high-peak, moderate longevity dominant alpha-title winner who also has a carry-job finals appearance.

Nash's 2 MVPs in a more modern league mean alot more than Moses 3 in a bygone era.

[Colbinii]

Vote tally I have is Paul 7, Dr J 5, KD 3. Still a very open race.

Noms are Nash 6, Moses 4, Jokic 3, Pettit & Stockton 1

nash over moses would just be wild and so out of line with nba history. a low longevity non-title winner who didn't even make the finals over a high-peak, moderate longevity dominant alpha-title winner who also has a carry-job finals appearance.

Nash's 2 MVPs in a more modern league mean alot more than Moses 3 in a bygone era.

Bygone as in the same one as Erving, who you have been supporting?

[One_and_Done]

Erving transcended his league more than Moses, and his game translates more today.

[Colbinii]

Erving transcended his league more than Moses, and his game translates more today.

Does it? A large wing who can't shoot the 3, isn't a great passer [Worse than Kobe/Wade by a margin, for example] and didn't score at the volume of Wade/Kobe for most of his prime.

I mean sure, maybe Erving is a bit better at translating, but it isn't like Erving is as portable as Jerry West--who you **** all over.

[One_and_Done]

So West is granted the ability to shoot 3s, but Erving is not, because why now? 3pt shooting was discouraged in Erving's time, but strictly speaking he had a 322. 3pt% in the ABA, despite never being asked to shoot it, and never practising it. I think he'd have been fine shooting 3s with minimal need to tweak anything.

[rk2023]

So West is granted the ability to shoot 3s, but Erving is not, because why now? 3pt shooting was discouraged in Erving's time, but strictly speaking he had a 322. 3pt% in the ABA, despite never being asked to shoot it, and never practising it. I think he'd have been fine shooting 3s with minimal need to tweak anything.

Who has made the argument about West shooting threes? I take it most of those whom championed West at or above where he went take a more era-relative approach and look at what his actual production is.

I think both of them translate well today in theory, but that's too much theory-based to be part of my criteria and analysis.

[iggymcfrack]

Vote: Chris Paul
Was looking at how many people have CP3 above Giannis and was thinking about it and if Paul has an average RAPM over an 18 year span that's higher than what Giannis has over a 10 year span, he probably deserves the spot ahead of him, right? Anyway, Paul's incredibly consistent advanced stats give him the spot here for me.

Alternate: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Easily the best 5 year peak of anyone currently nominated. Even if you compare him to Erving's ABA years, he comes out well ahead in the regular season and roughly even in the playoffs.

Nominate: Nikola Jokic
Only has Jordan-esque career numbers, all-time non-box impact, and the best single offensive season in NBA history. No big deal.

I think it'd be very much in your interests to give Nash your alternate nomination. At present that would put Nash ahead, and the Nash voters are going to be well aligned with the people you want to vote for. Plus I assume you have Nash ahead anyhow.

I have them both too far down to care which one gets nominated at this point. My big board of unselected players would be:

11. Jokic
12. Paul
14. Giannis
16. Stockton
20. Wade
21. Kawhi
25. Durant
26. Barkley
27. AD
28. Nash
29. Erving

Since it's not realistic that I'd vote for either player, I'll leave the nominations to those that are more supportive of their respective candidates. If anything, I might put an alternate vote in for Stockton if he had more traction, but Nash and Moses are both too far down for me to support positively. If you were saying it was going to strategically support a nomination for Jokic to get Nash in, I'd disagree with that too as Jokic has 1 alternate nomination from Moses and 0 from Nash.