SGA vs Kobe

[lessthanjake]

If you're 'dropping' down to a level that is still superior to the guy you are getting compared to, then it doesn't matter.

Here are Kobe’s playoff rTS% by year, from 1999-2010:

1999: +2.0%
2000: +0.9%
2001: +5.8%
2002: +0.6%
2003: +2.7%
2004: +1.9%
2006: +6.0%
2007: +2.9%
2008: +4.9%
2009: +3.6%
2010: +3.3%

I understand you’ve decided that you don’t like rTS%, but the post you’re responding to was about rTS%, so in that context it really isn’t accurate to say SGA has “‘dropp[ed]' down to a level that is still superior to” Kobe. Kobe generally had a better playoff rTS% than the playoff rTS%’s for SGA that was listed in that post you responded to.

Would love to know where you're getting these made up numbers.

In 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, and 2004, Kobe shot: .502, .517, .511, .531, and .506.

League averages in the playoffs those years were: .508, .517, .514, .525, and .500.

It can't even be defensive adjustments. In 2006, Kobe shot 4.0% better than league average in the playoffs and you give him +6.0% even though the one team he faced (Phoenix) was below average in regular season defense, below average in regular season eFG%, and allowed teams to shoot above average TS% in the playoffs. It seems like you're just randomly making up numbers for Kobe to make him look good.

What a weird accusation to make without doing any real checking of the numbers I provided. I got the numbers from the Thinking Basketball website’s database. That website calculates playoff rTS% based on the opponents’ regular season TS% given up—which, I will note, is the standard way people talk about playoff rTS% here (and I also ran SGA’s 2025 playoff rTS% that way myself and it came to the same +1.1% that the prior poster had mentioned). You use 2006 as an example, and talk about the Suns’ numbers but conspicuously don’t mention the Suns’ regular season TS% given up—the actual stat that is relevant here. If you go ahead and calculate that, you’ll find that it is indeed 6.0% lower than what Kobe shot against them in the playoffs.

[tsherkin]

Here are Kobe’s playoff rTS% by year, from 1999-2010:

1999: +2.0%
2000: +0.9%
2001: +5.8%
2002: +0.6%
2003: +2.7%
2004: +1.9%
2006: +6.0%
2007: +2.9%
2008: +4.9%
2009: +3.6%
2010: +3.3%

I understand you’ve decided that you don’t like rTS%, but the post you’re responding to was about rTS%, so in that context it really isn’t accurate to say SGA has “‘dropp[ed]' down to a level that is still superior to” Kobe. Kobe generally had a better playoff rTS% than the playoff rTS%’s for SGA that was listed in that post you responded to.

Would love to know where you're getting these made up numbers.

In 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, and 2004, Kobe shot: .502, .517, .511, .531, and .506.

League averages in the playoffs those years were: .508, .517, .514, .525, and .500.

It can't even be defensive adjustments. In 2006, Kobe shot 4.0% better than league average in the playoffs and you give him +6.0% even though the one team he faced (Phoenix) was below average in regular season defense, below average in regular season eFG%, and allowed teams to shoot above average TS% in the playoffs. It seems like you're just randomly making up numbers for Kobe to make him look good.

What a weird accusation to make without doing any real checking of the numbers I provided. I got the numbers from the Thinking Basketball website’s database. That website calculates playoff rTS% based on the opponents’ regular season TS% given up—which, I will note, is the standard way people talk about playoff rTS% here (and I also ran SGA’s 2025 playoff rTS% that way myself and it came to the same +1.1% that the prior poster had mentioned). You use 2006 as an example, and talk about the Suns’ numbers but conspicuously don’t mention the Suns’ regular season TS% given up—the actual stat that is relevant here. If you go ahead and calculate that, you’ll find that it is indeed 6.0% lower than what Kobe shot against them in the playoffs.

Worth noting that they do not match b-ref's numbers. I ran those numbers before you made that post, then saw yours and went "Huh?" But they're close enough, and certainly show that Kobe's relative efficiency was a lot higher during his post-Shaq career, so it wasn't worth saying anything at the time.

[EmpireFalls]

I know this sounds bizarre but I don’t really care about Shai’s rTS due to his player archetype. His whole thing is to avoid turnovers and get shots up to constantly stress the defense. It’s the same thing with later career Jordan’s not-otherworldly efficiency too, their offensive gameplan was built around their relentlessness. When watching it seems like he never slumps in quarters, he’ll go 4-9 but it’ll be make-miss-make-miss-miss-make-miss type of thing, and that keeps the defense honest and does a great job of opposing run avoidance.

I would much much rather have SGA’s middling TS compared to a Star who takes fewer than 10 shots in crucial games (looking at you, Haliburton)

Though to be fair to Kobe this also applies to him as well and thus is a feather in his cap that he managed better rTS numbers.

[lessthanjake]

Would love to know where you're getting these made up numbers.

In 1999, 2000, 2002, 2003, and 2004, Kobe shot: .502, .517, .511, .531, and .506.

League averages in the playoffs those years were: .508, .517, .514, .525, and .500.

It can't even be defensive adjustments. In 2006, Kobe shot 4.0% better than league average in the playoffs and you give him +6.0% even though the one team he faced (Phoenix) was below average in regular season defense, below average in regular season eFG%, and allowed teams to shoot above average TS% in the playoffs. It seems like you're just randomly making up numbers for Kobe to make him look good.

What a weird accusation to make without doing any real checking of the numbers I provided. I got the numbers from the Thinking Basketball website’s database. That website calculates playoff rTS% based on the opponents’ regular season TS% given up—which, I will note, is the standard way people talk about playoff rTS% here (and I also ran SGA’s 2025 playoff rTS% that way myself and it came to the same +1.1% that the prior poster had mentioned). You use 2006 as an example, and talk about the Suns’ numbers but conspicuously don’t mention the Suns’ regular season TS% given up—the actual stat that is relevant here. If you go ahead and calculate that, you’ll find that it is indeed 6.0% lower than what Kobe shot against them in the playoffs.

Worth noting that they do not match b-ref's numbers. I ran those numbers before you made that post, then saw yours and went "Huh?" But they're close enough, and certainly show that Kobe's relative efficiency was a lot higher during his post-Shaq career, so it wasn't worth saying anything at the time.

In years with multiple playoff series played, were you weighting the rTS% of each series by the number of TS attempts in the series? I *think* that’s what Thinking Basketball does (and I also think that’s the best way to do it). For instance, let’s say a player had 30 TS attempts with a +1 rTS% in one series and 70 TS attempts with a +5 rTS% in another series. The overall rTS% would be +3.8 (because (30/100)*1+(70/100)*5 = 3.8), rather than it being +3.0 (which is what you’d get if you just averaged +1 and +5). As noted in my prior post, I did check the rTS% for the 2006 year that was mentioned and that year had 1 playoff series for Kobe and the rTS% using BBREF data matched the Thinking Basketball number, so that’s why I’m thinking the relatively minor discrepancies you saw might relate to how you’re dealing with multiple series in one playoffs.

[tsherkin]

In years with multiple playoff series played, were you weighting the rTS% of each series by the number of TS attempts in the series?

No, just looking at the b-ref table and then calculating off the RS and PS TS% values.

so that’s why I’m thinking the relatively minor discrepancies you saw might relate to how you’re dealing with multiple series in one playoffs.

Like I said, it's a minor thing, so it doesn't actually author a salient change to the message, which is why I said nothing earlier. There's a very large shift in Kobe's playoff rTS from 06-12 compared to alongside Shaq. (EDIT: Still mostly quite inefficient in the Finals, though)

[One_and_Done]

I know this sounds bizarre but I don’t really care about Shai’s rTS due to his player archetype. His whole thing is to avoid turnovers and get shots up to constantly stress the defense. It’s the same thing with later career Jordan’s not-otherworldly efficiency too, their offensive gameplan was built around their relentlessness. When watching it seems like he never slumps in quarters, he’ll go 4-9 but it’ll be make-miss-make-miss-miss-make-miss type of thing, and that keeps the defense honest and does a great job of opposing run avoidance.

I would much much rather have SGA’s middling TS compared to a Star who takes fewer than 10 shots in crucial games (looking at you, Haliburton)

Though to be fair to Kobe this also applies to him as well and thus is a feather in his cap that he managed better rTS numbers.

Except, as was explained earlier, even if we cared about rTS%, Shai has Kobe beat there too.

[jalengreen]

I know this sounds bizarre but I don’t really care about Shai’s rTS due to his player archetype. His whole thing is to avoid turnovers and get shots up to constantly stress the defense. It’s the same thing with later career Jordan’s not-otherworldly efficiency too, their offensive gameplan was built around their relentlessness. When watching it seems like he never slumps in quarters, he’ll go 4-9 but it’ll be make-miss-make-miss-miss-make-miss type of thing, and that keeps the defense honest and does a great job of opposing run avoidance.

I would much much rather have SGA’s middling TS compared to a Star who takes fewer than 10 shots in crucial games (looking at you, Haliburton)

Though to be fair to Kobe this also applies to him as well and thus is a feather in his cap that he managed better rTS numbers.

He had 40 points on 30 shots against Minny in Game 4, and I was surprised to see that his relatively inefficient line afterwards because it really didn't feel that way to me watching the game. Not sure exactly what it is, maybe it's what you're describing.

[lessthanjake]

In years with multiple playoff series played, were you weighting the rTS% of each series by the number of TS attempts in the series?

No, just looking at the b-ref table and then calculating off the RS and PS TS% values.

so that’s why I’m thinking the relatively minor discrepancies you saw might relate to how you’re dealing with multiple series in one playoffs.

Like I said, it's a minor thing, so it doesn't actually author a salient change to the message, which is why I said nothing earlier. There's a very large shift in Kobe's playoff rTS from 06-12 compared to alongside Shaq. (EDIT: Still mostly quite inefficient in the Finals, though)

Oh, in that case you’re calculating a different rTS%. What Thinking Basketball is calculating is an rTS% based on the opponent’s regular season TS% given up, not an rTS% based on the league’s playoff average TS%. I think the former is generally what people talk about when they refer to playoff rTS%, and I think that’s the better approach, but it’s a different data approach that’ll just lead to slightly different numbers. As you said though, not actually a salient change here.

[tsherkin]

Oh, in that case you’re calculating a different rTS%. What Thinking Basketball is calculating is an rTS% based on the opponent’s regular season TS% given up, not an rTS% based on the league’s playoff average TS%. I think the former is generally what people talk about when they refer to playoff rTS%, and I think that’s the better approach, but it’s a different data approach that’ll just lead to slightly different numbers. As you said though, not actually a salient change here.

Yes, mine was not opponent-adjusted, just relative to league playoff average, and is the more common general measure, I suspect, likely because it is faster. It's also in line with stuff like TS+ calculations and what have you, if you're going off of b-ref.

[O_6]

Most thorough season since Curry ‘15.

Jokic still feels like the best player. SGA is so good at closing though. Great deep team but SGA is taking care of the scoring with his easy 30s and strong overall play.

They’ll be the favorite regardless. SGA dropping a cold 42 on the Knicks at MSG is what the league needs though. And I feel like that’s what he would do. Caruso/Dort on the perimeter. Chet up and coming with iHart. Jalen Williams being actually good. Tough team right here.

[LakerLegend]

Funny tweet about this topic:

Read on Twitter

Why are you quoting nobodies on the internet?

It's just a funny tweet. No need to take it serious tbh.

Well, here's the answer:

Read on Twitter

[One_and_Done]

Players say nice things about other players they liked. It's not clear why we'd take their idle hyperbole seriously. Players say dumb stuff all the time. The talent of playing basketball is not the same as the talent of evaluating players. Jordan's tenure as owner makes that clear. Or just watch Inside the NBA.

[LakerLegend]

Players say nice things about other players they liked. It's not clear why we'd take their idle hyperbole seriously. Players say dumb stuff all the time. The talent of playing basketball is not the same as the talent of evaluating players. Jordan's tenure as owner makes that clear. Or just watch Inside the NBA.

Your anti Kobe theme has been tried many, many times before and been done much better I might add. Not worth the energy you're putting into it.

[One_and_Done]

Players say nice things about other players they liked. It's not clear why we'd take their idle hyperbole seriously. Players say dumb stuff all the time. The talent of playing basketball is not the same as the talent of evaluating players. Jordan's tenure as owner makes that clear. Or just watch Inside the NBA.

Your anti Kobe theme has been tried many, many times before and been done much better I might add. Not worth the energy you're putting into it.

It's not anti-Kobe to point out the obvious. Shai is clearly better than he ever was.

[LePeekaboo]

KOBE.

[Dr Positivity]

Both players have great footwork and midrange games, above average athleticism but not Jordan level (advantage to Kobe), and are good playmakers and defenders though not all world at it. Kobe is probably the more talented 3pt shooter, and even better midrange shooter when you consider how defended those shots were in his time, but SGA better foul merchant. Overall I think a pretty good comp with SGA benefitting from modern spacing/stats era to put up that efficiency. Kobe is more talented but SGA is the better teammate and overall slightly preferable player.

[falcolombardi]

Both players have great footwork and midrange games, above average athleticism but not Jordan level (advantage to Kobe), and are good playmakers and defenders though not all world at it. Kobe is probably the more talented 3pt shooter, and even better midrange shooter when you consider how defended those shots were in his time, but SGA better foul merchant. Overall I think a pretty good comp with SGA benefitting from modern spacing/stats era to put up that efficiency. Kobe is more talented but SGA is the better teammate and overall slightly preferable player.

Shai -doesnt- take more free throws than kobe did despite attacking the rim more, this narrative is so tired (specially when kobe had a long bag of tricks like leg kicking to get calls)

And nothingh about their volumes or percentages suggests kobe was a better 3 point shooter, shot difficulty only goes so far for midrange too (where do you even draw the line, may as well say kobe is better from midrange than jordan or dirk too since nobody took harder shots than him)

[LakerLegend]

Both players have great footwork and midrange games, above average athleticism but not Jordan level (advantage to Kobe), and are good playmakers and defenders though not all world at it. Kobe is probably the more talented 3pt shooter, and even better midrange shooter when you consider how defended those shots were in his time, but SGA better foul merchant. Overall I think a pretty good comp with SGA benefitting from modern spacing/stats era to put up that efficiency. Kobe is more talented but SGA is the better teammate and overall slightly preferable player.

Shai -doesnt- take more free throws than kobe did despite attacking the rim more, this narrative is so tired (specially when kobe had a long bag of tricks like leg kicking to get calls)

And nothingh about their volumes or percentages suggests kobe was a better 3 point shooter, shot difficulty only goes so far for midrange too (where do you even draw the line, may as well say kobe is better from midrange than jordan or dirk too since nobody took harder shots than him)

There's no physicality or defense now, you can't just compare numbers on their face value.

[One_and_Done]

Both players have great footwork and midrange games, above average athleticism but not Jordan level (advantage to Kobe), and are good playmakers and defenders though not all world at it. Kobe is probably the more talented 3pt shooter, and even better midrange shooter when you consider how defended those shots were in his time, but SGA better foul merchant. Overall I think a pretty good comp with SGA benefitting from modern spacing/stats era to put up that efficiency. Kobe is more talented but SGA is the better teammate and overall slightly preferable player.

Shai -doesnt- take more free throws than kobe did despite attacking the rim more, this narrative is so tired (specially when kobe had a long bag of tricks like leg kicking to get calls)

And nothingh about their volumes or percentages suggests kobe was a better 3 point shooter, shot difficulty only goes so far for midrange too (where do you even draw the line, may as well say kobe is better from midrange than jordan or dirk too since nobody took harder shots than him)

There's no physicality or defense now, you can't just compare numbers on their face value.

In most ways, today's game is more physically demanding, there are just fewer random elbows in ad hoc games

[tsherkin]

There's no physicality or defense now, you can't just compare numbers on their face value.

This isn't true, it's just some nonsense that gets thrown around. Things are different because of the level of shooting in the game. Yes, the freedom of movement rules are a thing, but there's tons of defense (especially in these playoffs). It's just that the interior is a lot more open because you can't rely on most of the team to be a non-threat from outside. Before, the 4 and the 5 would be hanging around in the paint, crashing the boards and such like. Now, you've got 5-out offenses where you can reliably go to your 4 or 5 in many cases for 3pt shooting, which opens up the interior. That's the power of shooting and passing. The game is also faster than it has been in years, and getting ahead of the defense is a great way to get high-efficiency offense.

Understanding the particulars reveals these weird, old-head truisms like "MREH THERE'S NO DEFENSE" coming out of ESPN and some retired guys for what they are: misrepresentations of reality.