RealGM 2025 Greatest Peaks Project #1 — 2013 LeBron James

[OhayoKD]

[
Besides if Jordan's impact stats look that good and he's a subpar defender then he must be the offensive GOAT by a comically large margin as opposed to a small margin. Something's got to give.

Exactly. We just got a thread on Jordan's playoff on/off and at +18.1 for his career, it's literally the best number of anyone we have data for. People who act like anyone liking jordan is just some braindead "me likey points" fan or that it takes "strange" stats to like Jordan seem to be missing that Jordan combined the crazy box score stuff with the crazy winning and now apparently the best playoff on/off ever. And any time someone scrapes up some RAPM data, he seems to always look amazing in that as well.

If being neck and neck with Magic is amazing for you (with a good chance of falling behind), you might want to reassess where you rate Jordan as a basketball player.

(and to be clear, at this point, Magic is the only player where a comparison with Jordan means anything as it pertains to Squared's RAPM)

[Elpolo_14]

.
Giannis - 2021
2019, 2020, 2022
Two-way monster. Best defender and can score 30. You should take that deal. Won a ring with kris middleton and jrue bledsoe. Kris middleton and Jrue Bledsoe. 40 points and amazing defense in the finals.

Never would have thought Giannis would end up in top 3 nominations this quickly. It make the whole project more diverse and with more variety which is really interesting.

Just a question why you chose 2021 Giannis instead of 2020 or 2022?

[ReggiesKnicks]

Please don't put Bobby and Bron in the same sentence as Draymond when talking about defense.

I dobt think he was saying they were equally good but pointing out they were mobile and impactful rim protectors despite not being huge like most rim protecting centers

I am also comparing 2016 LeBron James and Peak Bobby Jones (His younger, ABA years) to Draymond.

Draymond Replicated much of 2016 LeBron James for nearly a decade. LeBron James didn't replicate 2016 LeBron James defensively for a decade.

[f4p]

1. '09 LeBron James (2010, 2012, 2013, 2016)

2. '91 Michael Jordan (1989, 1990)

In 2009, LeBron produced, for my money, the most impressive individual season in the history of the sport. It's hard for me to imagine a more valuable season across both sides of the ball through the regular season and postseason. I do not think it was the best version of him as a player - that would probably be 2016, so it really depends on how I want to approach the question.

Yeah that's the question for me. 2009 is probably the most dominant basketball ever put on a court but I'm not certain it wasn't just LeBron on a heater in the playoffs and avoiding a Celtics or 2011 Mavs defense vs something he could have done 100 times out of 100, whereas I think Jordan basically repeats 1991 every time.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Giannis - 2021
2019, 2020, 2022
Two-way monster. Best defender and can score 30. You should take that deal. Won a ring with kris middleton and jrue bledsoe. Kris middleton and Jrue Bledsoe. 40 points and amazing defense in the finals.

You show a lot of interesting data around Curry and LeBron about how good offensively they were. Meanwhile, Giannis has never been able to lead good or great post-season offenses.

What makes Giannis better than guys like Kareem, a player better on both sides of the ball than Giannis?

[falcolombardi]

1. '09 LeBron James (2010, 2012, 2013, 2016)

2. '91 Michael Jordan (1989, 1990)

In 2009, LeBron produced, for my money, the most impressive individual season in the history of the sport. It's hard for me to imagine a more valuable season across both sides of the ball through the regular season and postseason. I do not think it was the best version of him as a player - that would probably be 2016, so it really depends on how I want to approach the question.

Yeah that's the question for me. 2009 is probably the most dominant basketball ever put on a court but I'm not certain it wasn't just LeBron on a heater in the playoffs and avoiding a Celtics or 2011 Mavs defense vs something he could have done 100 times out of 100, whereas I think Jordan basically repeats 1991 every time.

This is a bit odd to me of an argument cause we know jordan mostly didnt replicate his 91 playoffs scoring in previous or later years and we know his efficiency went lower against top end defense (knicks 92, knicks 93, seattle 96, detroit 88-90)

[f4p]

[
Besides if Jordan's impact stats look that good and he's a subpar defender then he must be the offensive GOAT by a comically large margin as opposed to a small margin. Something's got to give.

Exactly. We just got a thread on Jordan's playoff on/off and at +18.1 for his career, it's literally the best number of anyone we have data for. People who act like anyone liking jordan is just some braindead "me likey points" fan or that it takes "strange" stats to like Jordan seem to be missing that Jordan combined the crazy box score stuff with the crazy winning and now apparently the best playoff on/off ever. And any time someone scrapes up some RAPM data, he seems to always look amazing in that as well.

If being neck and neck with Magic is amazing for you (with a good chance of falling behind), you might want to reassess where you rate Jordan as a basketball player.

(and to be clear, at this point, Magic is the only player where a comparison with Jordan means anything as it pertains to Squared's RAPM)

Depending on the day, I have magic 4th or 5th on my all time list. And given that RAPM is noisy on a good day and even noisier given that Squared isn't a robot who can track an infinite number of 80s games, if Jordan is neck and neck with magic then it would certainly place his error bars well into GOAT territory and given that the actual tracked on/off is now literally #1 in the playoffs, that seems good enough.

[Elpolo_14]

Giannis - 2021
2019, 2020, 2022
Two-way monster. Best defender and can score 30. You should take that deal. Won a ring with kris middleton and jrue bledsoe. Kris middleton and Jrue Bledsoe. 40 points and amazing defense in the finals.

You show a lot of interesting data around Curry and LeBron about how good offensively they were. Meanwhile, Giannis has never been able to lead good or great post-season offenses.

What makes Giannis better than guys like Kareem, a player better on both sides of the ball than Giannis?

I don't know what criteria he use for Giannis but the aspect of the game that I definitely have Giannis better than Kareem would be Transition game. ( Both end of the floor he's better )

Giannis also a freak One and Off the court if you know what mean

[OhayoKD]

1. '09 LeBron James (2010, 2012, 2013, 2016)

2. '91 Michael Jordan (1989, 1990)

In 2009, LeBron produced, for my money, the most impressive individual season in the history of the sport. It's hard for me to imagine a more valuable season across both sides of the ball through the regular season and postseason. I do not think it was the best version of him as a player - that would probably be 2016, so it really depends on how I want to approach the question.

Yeah that's the question for me. 2009 is probably the most dominant basketball ever put on a court but I'm not certain it wasn't just LeBron on a heater in the playoffs and avoiding a Celtics or 2011 Mavs defense vs something he could have done 100 times out of 100, whereas I think Jordan basically repeats 1991 every time.

This is a bit odd to me of an argument cause we know jordan mostly didnt replicate his 91 playoffs scoring in previous or later years and we know his efficiency went lower against top end defense (knicks 92, knicks 93, seattle 96, detroit 88-90)

Nah man. Didn't you see him cook a negative playoff defense Detroit team when their best or second best defender missed half of two games?

Between his amazing, not even the best among his contemporaries impact portfolio, his supporters' incredible talent for creating uneven pace calculation (while just ignoring 94), and his teams consistently looking much better without him over actual 48-minute games, how could one even think someone other than Lebron might be better than him?

[Elpolo_14]

Exactly. We just got a thread on Jordan's playoff on/off and at +18.1 for his career, it's literally the best number of anyone we have data for. People who act like anyone liking jordan is just some braindead "me likey points" fan or that it takes "strange" stats to like Jordan seem to be missing that Jordan combined the crazy box score stuff with the crazy winning and now apparently the best playoff on/off ever. And any time someone scrapes up some RAPM data, he seems to always look amazing in that as well.

If being neck and neck with Magic is amazing for you (with a good chance of falling behind), you might want to reassess where you rate Jordan as a basketball player.

(and to be clear, at this point, Magic is the only player where a comparison with Jordan means anything as it pertains to Squared's RAPM)

Depending on the day, I have magic 4th or 5th on my all time list. And given that RAPM is noisy on a good day and even noisier given that Squared isn't a robot who can track an infinite number of 80s games, if Jordan is neck and neck with magic then it would certainly place his error bars well into GOAT territory and given that the actual tracked on/off is now literally #1 in the playoffs, that seems good enough.

First time seeing a fellow Magic enjoyer. Where do you have him in term of peak all time? Is it also top 5 range

[eminence]

Please don't put Bobby and Bron in the same sentence as Draymond when talking about defense.

I dobt think he was saying they were equally good but pointing out they were mobile and impactful rim protectors despite not being huge like most rim protecting centers

I am also comparing 2016 LeBron James and Peak Bobby Jones (His younger, ABA years) to Draymond.

Draymond Replicated much of 2016 LeBron James for nearly a decade. LeBron James didn't replicate 2016 LeBron James defensively for a decade.

I'd have Bobby's peak defensively as '77. But anywho, no version of either touch prime Draymond. LeBron has never replicated Draymonds role, the volume difference in shots challenged all over the court is gargantuan.

[OhayoKD]

Exactly. We just got a thread on Jordan's playoff on/off and at +18.1 for his career, it's literally the best number of anyone we have data for. People who act like anyone liking jordan is just some braindead "me likey points" fan or that it takes "strange" stats to like Jordan seem to be missing that Jordan combined the crazy box score stuff with the crazy winning and now apparently the best playoff on/off ever. And any time someone scrapes up some RAPM data, he seems to always look amazing in that as well.

If being neck and neck with Magic is amazing for you (with a good chance of falling behind), you might want to reassess where you rate Jordan as a basketball player.

(and to be clear, at this point, Magic is the only player where a comparison with Jordan means anything as it pertains to Squared's RAPM)

Depending on the day, I have magic 4th or 5th on my all time list. And given that RAPM is noisy on a good day and even noisier given that Squared isn't a robot who can track an infinite number of 80s games, if Jordan is neck and neck with magic then it would certainly place his error bars well into GOAT territory and given that the actual tracked on/off is now literally #1 in the playoffs, that seems good enough.

-> Worried about Noise
-> Uses on/off to argue Jordan has parity with a player repeatedly seeing teams improve by 30-40 wins over actual **** games

Compelling as always.

[ReggiesKnicks]

I dobt think he was saying they were equally good but pointing out they were mobile and impactful rim protectors despite not being huge like most rim protecting centers

I am also comparing 2016 LeBron James and Peak Bobby Jones (His younger, ABA years) to Draymond.

Draymond Replicated much of 2016 LeBron James for nearly a decade. LeBron James didn't replicate 2016 LeBron James defensively for a decade.

I'd have Bobby's peak defensively as '77. But anywho, no version of either touch prime Draymond. LeBron has never replicated Draymonds role, the volume difference in shots challenged all over the court is gargantuan.

I won't disagree about volume. I will push back on effectiveness, understand volume is important.

Draymond 2016 DFGA/G: 19.0
Draymond 2016 DFG% Diff: -7.8%

LeBron 2016 DFGA/G: 10.1
LeBron 2016 DFG% Diff: -13.5%

No player with LeBron's volume contests ever approached -13.5% FG% in the 2010s in the postseason.

I view Draymond Green as a generation defender, FWIW.

RE Bobby Jones:

I think any year through 1978 has an argument as his peak defensively, he started losing some juice after 1978, and it is hard to pinpoint defensive effectiveness from the ABA to the NBA merger.

[homecourtloss]

1. '09 LeBron James (2010, 2012, 2013, 2016)

2. '91 Michael Jordan (1989, 1990)

In 2009, LeBron produced, for my money, the most impressive individual season in the history of the sport. It's hard for me to imagine a more valuable season across both sides of the ball through the regular season and postseason. I do not think it was the best version of him as a player - that would probably be 2016, so it really depends on how I want to approach the question.

Yeah that's the question for me. 2009 is probably the most dominant basketball ever put on a court but I'm not certain it wasn't just LeBron on a heater in the playoffs and avoiding a Celtics or 2011 Mavs defense vs something he could have done 100 times out of 100, whereas I think Jordan basically repeats 1991 every time.

This is a bit odd to me of an argument cause we know jordan mostly didnt replicate his 91 playoffs scoring in previous or later years and we know his efficiency went lower against top end defense (knicks 92, knicks 93, seattle 96, detroit 88-90)

One of the things that gets lost when discussing how LeBron has been able to take offenses to highest heights is his personal scoring efficiency no matter how good the defenses got, and he played a LOT of games vs. -4 rDRtg teams or better (81), his scoring efficacy didn’t really change. One of the most impressive things is that his relative effective FG% (reFG%) doesn’t get affected by defenses until you get to the -7 rDRtgs or better, which he played 23 games against. For some scorers, they can keep their rTS% numbers g eternally intact vs. good defenses, but their reFG% drops.



Notice how now matter how good the defenses get, the rTS% and reFG% pretty much stay the same:



His scoring efficacy is pretty much the same whether he is facing a -2 rDRtg or -7 rDRtg, which is crazy:



If we compare this with Jordan, Jordan had higher volume, and his rTS% held up well, but his reFG% dropped against the very best defenses of which he didn’t play as many games:

[homecourtloss]

I am also comparing 2016 LeBron James and Peak Bobby Jones (His younger, ABA years) to Draymond.

Draymond Replicated much of 2016 LeBron James for nearly a decade. LeBron James didn't replicate 2016 LeBron James defensively for a decade.

I'd have Bobby's peak defensively as '77. But anywho, no version of either touch prime Draymond. LeBron has never replicated Draymonds role, the volume difference in shots challenged all over the court is gargantuan.

I won't disagree about volume. I will push back on effectiveness, understand volume is important.

Draymond 2016 DFGA/G: 19.0
Draymond 2016 DFG% Diff: -7.8%

LeBron 2016 DFGA/G: 10.1
LeBron 2016 DFG% Diff: -13.5%

No player with LeBron's volume contests ever approached -13.5% FG% in the 2010s in the postseason.

I view Draymond Green as a generation defender, FWIW.

RE Bobby Jones:

I think any year through 1978 has an argument as his peak defensively, he started losing some juice after 1978, and it is hard to pinpoint defensive effectiveness from the ABA to the NBA merger.

One of the things that stands out about James is among the ATG offensive engines, e.g., Magic, Nash, a James, Jordan, Curry, none has had the defensive burden responsibility that James has had yet the offenses produced with him as the engine are extraordinary.

2013 playoffs rORtg On: +9.1
2013 playoffs rORtg without Wade: +23.9 over a substantial 282 minutes
(+12.6 vs. the Spurs, +16 vs. the Bulls, +22.2 vs. the Pacers, and +31 vs the Spurs.
2013+2014 playoffs rORtg without Wade: +19.1

2016 playoffs rORtg On: +13.4
2016 playoffs rORtg without Kyrie: +10.8
2016+2017 playoffs rORtg: +14.8
2016+2017 playoffs rORtg without Kyrie: + 12.8

His entire CAREER without Wade or kyrie sees him at +9.5 rORtg from 2008-2020. A player like Curry for his CAREER including WiTH KD is at +6.7 rORtg, a player who doesn’t have the defensive responsibilities that James has

It didn’t matter who was on court, what system, what teammates, what defenses, etc.; James would create offense while shouldering defensive responsibilities that boosted a mediocre Cavs’ defense, for instance, into the heights during their 2016 run, a type of lift one associates with ATG defenders.

[ceoofkobefans]

not very interesting for the first few spots so i won't spend too much time in these

1. 2012 LeBron James (>2013>2009>2010)

Just a stupidly good basketball. about as good of a combination of scoring, passing, creation, rebounding, perimeter, and interior defense as you can realistically ask for in a player.

2. 1991 Michael Jordan (> 1990> 1989>1988)

GOAT scorer by a fair margin elite off ball player and still an all time playmaker although not quite Bron's level. ATG guard defender as well makes for a pretty solid second best peak

3. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal

GOAT Finisher GOAT tier gravity atg scorer elite defender but motor/agility issues keep him from being a truly elite defensive big

[70sFan]

Not a voter, but could anyone defend Shaq's case over Kareem?

[Elpolo_14]

Not a voter, but could anyone defend Shaq's case over Kareem?

The argument would heavily base on the playmaking Gap aspect with implication on Gravity to Trancent ( also have better ability as a Facilitor like screening and stuff )above Kareem superior Scoring efficiency and resilience in the playoffs. Would also need to use recent era being more talented Top to Bottom as an argument for Shaq success in his peak ( even tho Kareem was carrying a Bigger load with bad support ). While the defense isn't on the same tier due to Shaq being unreliable in Prerimeter or as PNR defender which hurt him because his era demand those Skillsets while Kareem have many elite traits to anchor defense in his era "also The motor on D is quite big on Kareem favor".
I think argument could be made but I'm not sure it would be convincing enough to push Shaq above Kareem.

Also why aren't you a voter? You information and analysis always great.

[70sFan]

Not a voter, but could anyone defend Shaq's case over Kareem?

The argument would heavily base on the playmaking Gap aspect with implication on Gravity to Trancent ( also have better ability as a Facilitor like screening and stuff )above Kareem superior Scoring efficiency and resilience in the playoffs. Would also need to use recent era being more talented Top to Bottom as an argument for Shaq success in his peak ( even tho Kareem was carrying a Bigger load with bad support ). While the defense isn't on the same tier due to Shaq being unreliable in Prerimeter or as PNR defender which hurt him because his era demand those Skillsets while Kareem have many elite traits to anchor defense in his era "also The motor on D is quite big on Kareem favor".
I think argument could be made but I'm not sure it would be convincing enough to push Shaq above Kareem.

Also why aren't you a voter? You information and analysis always great.

Playmaking gap assumes gravity advantage, which is not really that clear from my observation. Of course, Shaq created more open threes than Jabbar but it's not caused by his playmaking ability, but it's caused by era differences. 1970s Kareem had immense gravity himself.

I don't think screening matters here at all to be honest. Era argument is always there, so I guess that could be the case.

I don't have the time for basketball now. I am on an abroad internship, just yesterday I caught up the finals...

[Djoker]

I am also comparing 2016 LeBron James and Peak Bobby Jones (His younger, ABA years) to Draymond.

Draymond Replicated much of 2016 LeBron James for nearly a decade. LeBron James didn't replicate 2016 LeBron James defensively for a decade.

I'd have Bobby's peak defensively as '77. But anywho, no version of either touch prime Draymond. LeBron has never replicated Draymonds role, the volume difference in shots challenged all over the court is gargantuan.

I won't disagree about volume. I will push back on effectiveness, understand volume is important.

Draymond 2016 DFGA/G: 19.0
Draymond 2016 DFG% Diff: -7.8%

LeBron 2016 DFGA/G: 10.1
LeBron 2016 DFG% Diff: -13.5%

No player with LeBron's volume contests ever approached -13.5% FG% in the 2010s in the postseason.

I view Draymond Green as a generation defender, FWIW.

RE Bobby Jones:

I think any year through 1978 has an argument as his peak defensively, he started losing some juice after 1978, and it is hard to pinpoint defensive effectiveness from the ABA to the NBA merger.

-7.8% on 19.0 attempts saves more points than -13.5% on 10.1 attempts assuming the shot distribution is the same.

Just thought I'd point that out.