RealGM Top 100 List #11

[Melodabeast]

Narrative
For me, Kobe was an excellent defender earlier in his career, but a bit of a selfish ballhog, and seems more intent on individual career scoring goals than team success his whole career. His 'scoring explosion' once shaq left came at the expense of team wins, and he also seemed to give up on playing all game long at this point. I was surprised that he was able to win a couple more championships (although Gasol led the team in win shares both years they won, so he arguably wasn't the best player on the team in ANY of his championships, but maybe that's the hater in me saying that).

My goodness. What nonsense.

[penbeast0]

KG- 18 (Dr MJ, Baller2014, Fplii, Realbig3, Ronny, Quo, RSDC, Drza, MaGill, PCProductions, rich316, Jaivl, Notanoob, 90sAllDecade, Chuck Texas, Heartbreak Kid, acrossthecourt, SactoKingsFan)



Kobe- 9 (GC Pan, UBF, bbfan?, Jbulls, Ardee, Dhogkins, trex8063, batmana, DannyNoonan1221)

tsherkin never got his reasoning up, and I never wrote up my runoff vote but it looks like a clear victory for Garnett.

[Texas Chuck]

This attack on KG supporters sure leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Can we maybe let this go now?

In more important matters some pretty great pro-Dirk numbers have been posted by guys trying to show other things. As a "Dirk guy" I hope people have been noticing.

And I hope all90s posts Dirk's team records without an all-star since he did it for Kobe/KG. Considering he hasnt' had an all-star since Nash left(injury replacements shouldn't count, should they? Especially when Kidd got only because the game was in Dallas). So 2 Finals trips, a championship, multiple 60 win seasons, never dipped below 50 wins until he missed major games in 12 and 13. I look forward to his post on that in the next thread.

[Doctor MJ]

God forbid we talk about individual defense, but has Garnett ever shut down a player in the Playoffs? Honest question, he's gone up against the likes of Webber, Duncan and Dirk. Does he have a signature moment of slowing down a player? I'd assume if he was the GOAT on defense that would exist?

It's really annoying seeing people jump in with such cocky confidence that things have never been discussed, and I feel like it just keeps happening.

Go read drza's post here:

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1334350&p=40580241#p40580241

People keep alleging that the KG people are klling the project by focusing on 1 stat, and these same people have typically never in their life done as thorough a scouting job as what drza did here. It's pretty absurd. People just seem to have the assumption that people sporting opinions this unconventional must have very little to back them up, and they continue to think this even after they've seen otherwise.

I can't even call this cognitive dissonance, this is akin to literally not to the old joke of not being able to understand a Chinese man unless his English is broken.

And I can do without your annoying tone. What a coincidence, I guys we both could do without each other. This thread is 30 pages long and the conversation has been dominated by RAPM. I missed where the post was and instead of kindly pointing towards it you had to focus on my "cocky" confidence. Maybe you should be a tad more tolerant and not jump to labeling?

Edit - wait, the thread you cited was linked towards the 6th ranked player, not this thread? Seriously, that explains your tone? Maybe he posted it in this thread, but you should relax, it's basketball.

My tone came from your tone. Read what you wrote. This is not the language of someone looking to come in and humbly ask for help. When you jump into a heated conversation like this and challenge one side to do something in a tone that implies that it doesn't exist when it's already discussed, you really shouldn't expect an answer from someone that sounds like they're happy you're here.

I probably should be trying even harder to be polite, but I'm the one whose basically being accused of ruining the project here, and it's been going on a long time. The people attacking have lost their patience, and they have nowhere near the cause to lose their patience as the one being attacked.

[magicmerl]

Spoiler:

So, the runoff is between Kobe and Garnett. Sorry I haven't been able to participate in this thread as much as the others (life happened over the weekend).

Narrative
For me, Kobe was an excellent defender earlier in his career, but a bit of a selfish ballhog, and seems more intent on individual career scoring goals than team success his whole career. His 'scoring explosion' once shaq left came at the expense of team wins, and he also seemed to give up on playing all game long at this point. I was surprised that he was able to win a couple more championships (although Gasol led the team in win shares both years they won, so he arguably wasn't the best player on the team in ANY of his championships, but maybe that's the hater in me saying that).

Garnett also has his flaws. many see him as being on a par or better than Duncan, which is only kinda true. As some have said, the all-worldly perimeter defense that KG anchors is just much less valuable than the rim protecting defense that Duncan plays. I did an analysis a while back on scoring efficiency by shot location, and found that KG shot BETTER than Duncan from EVERYWHERE on the floor, but Duncan had a higher efg% because he took more of his shots close to the rim. So while KG may very well have been more physically talented and skilled than Duncan as a player, Duncan's brain let him actually have more impact on the court. That said, I don't hold not being as good as Duncan against KG (or at least, I would if this was a comparison between Duncan and KG, but it's not).

Once you get down to it, 'not quite as good as Duncan' is still pretty damn good.

Stats
A huge part of Kobe's case rests on his longevity. But KG has even more longevity, since he has played over than 3000 minutes more, and thus has a corresponding win shares edge (even if their WS/48 is similar). Kobe has of course played a lot more playoff minutes than KG, and this is where we need to factor in team quality. How much should KG be penalised for not having a good enough team to make deep playoff runs? Some certainly (since his cap eating contract necessarily precluded top level talent being acquired) but the abysmal management in Minnesota was more to blame IMO.

Their ORtg is on a par, while KG's DRtg blows Kobe out of the water. When you extend that to the smaller samle sized playoffs, the numbers stay mostly the same, although KG suffers an ORtg dropoff equivalent to how Kobe plays Defense all the time.

My vote is for KG.

Can you expand on this more. I've heard this before and for me it's a preposterous idea that Bryant's actually lessened the success of the 05-06, 06-07 Lakers. On the other issue, not playing all game long? Pretty sure Kobe was at the top of the NBA leader boards. Weird critique.

Sorry, when I said he wasn't "playing all game long" that was an error by me. I meant to say he wasn't "playing defense all game long". Kobe ALWAYS gives effort on the offensive end of the court, even if the goal is his points rather than points for the team.

And once you get past the fact that the 06 and 07 years were basically writeoffs in terms of championship aspirations because of Kobe's role in breaking up their championship core for ultimately selfish reasons (he'd rather lose as the man than win as a sidekick anymore), he actually played pretty decently those seasons given his supporting cast. Of course, I think it's reasonable to assign him some blame for his supporting cast since he forced Shaq out of town.

Jackson was fired right after, and Shaq was moved to placate Kobe, who signed immediately afterwards. Sure, Magic got his coach fired once too, but at least that turned out to be the right move. Kobe wasn't doing this for the right reasons, indeed he had to swallow his pride and agree for Phil to come back after things fell apart without him. Forcing the team to move Shaq in a rush, so he would agree to re-sign, almost certainly hurt the Lakers in their quest to get fair value back (and indeed, keeping Shaq would have been more sensible).

[MistyMountain20]

My tone came from your tone. Read what you wrote. This is not the language of someone looking to come in and humbly ask for help. When you jump into a heated conversation like this and challenge one side to do something in a tone that implies that it doesn't exist when it's already discussed, you really shouldn't expect an answer from someone that sounds like they're happy you're here.

I probably should be trying even harder to be polite, but I'm the one whose basically being accused of ruining the project here, and it's been going on a long time. The people attacking have lost their patience, and they have nowhere near the cause to lose their patience as the one being attacked.

I said it was an honest question. The first sentence may come as an attack but I said it was an honest question. Then a poster responded like a normal person and I thanked him for his input. I didn't close me eyes and ears and say he's wrong. Read the thread more carefully.

Your the mod here, your tone is important towards inviting different thoughts and not making them feel marginalized.

[Senior]

(although Gasol led the team in win shares both years they won, so he arguably wasn't the best player on the team in ANY of his championships, but maybe that's the hater in me saying that)

It is, unless you think Drexler was better than Olajuwon in the 95 playoffs.

By the way, Kobe led the Lakers in WS (which I think is a nonsense stat) in 2009.

[90sAllDecade]

That Elgee post was interesting but I have one concern about the main underpinning of the whole post.

Would'nt using a Drtg number (which is useful in comparing a team within a season, not cross seasons imo among other things) which fluctuates with league average defensive ratings make faster paced league Drtg 80's players look worse than slower paced mid 2000's lower league average Drtg players?

It would naturally skew the sample for mid 2000's players having more games and therefore better balanced averages against lower Drtg numbers (like below 103).

A comparison using relative Drtg competition or something like that might be stronger perhaps.

A second study in how each player succeeds defensively against higher relative Ortg competition might be interesting as well, to balance out comparing combined two way impact.

(I may attempt it if I have that much time available)

[MistyMountain20]

Spoiler:

So, the runoff is between Kobe and Garnett. Sorry I haven't been able to participate in this thread as much as the others (life happened over the weekend).

Narrative
For me, Kobe was an excellent defender earlier in his career, but a bit of a selfish ballhog, and seems more intent on individual career scoring goals than team success his whole career. His 'scoring explosion' once shaq left came at the expense of team wins, and he also seemed to give up on playing all game long at this point. I was surprised that he was able to win a couple more championships (although Gasol led the team in win shares both years they won, so he arguably wasn't the best player on the team in ANY of his championships, but maybe that's the hater in me saying that).

Garnett also has his flaws. many see him as being on a par or better than Duncan, which is only kinda true. As some have said, the all-worldly perimeter defense that KG anchors is just much less valuable than the rim protecting defense that Duncan plays. I did an analysis a while back on scoring efficiency by shot location, and found that KG shot BETTER than Duncan from EVERYWHERE on the floor, but Duncan had a higher efg% because he took more of his shots close to the rim. So while KG may very well have been more physically talented and skilled than Duncan as a player, Duncan's brain let him actually have more impact on the court. That said, I don't hold not being as good as Duncan against KG (or at least, I would if this was a comparison between Duncan and KG, but it's not).

Once you get down to it, 'not quite as good as Duncan' is still pretty damn good.

Stats
A huge part of Kobe's case rests on his longevity. But KG has even more longevity, since he has played over than 3000 minutes more, and thus has a corresponding win shares edge (even if their WS/48 is similar). Kobe has of course played a lot more playoff minutes than KG, and this is where we need to factor in team quality. How much should KG be penalised for not having a good enough team to make deep playoff runs? Some certainly (since his cap eating contract necessarily precluded top level talent being acquired) but the abysmal management in Minnesota was more to blame IMO.

Their ORtg is on a par, while KG's DRtg blows Kobe out of the water. When you extend that to the smaller samle sized playoffs, the numbers stay mostly the same, although KG suffers an ORtg dropoff equivalent to how Kobe plays Defense all the time.

My vote is for KG.

Can you expand on this more. I've heard this before and for me it's a preposterous idea that Bryant's actually lessened the success of the 05-06, 06-07 Lakers. On the other issue, not playing all game long? Pretty sure Kobe was at the top of the NBA leader boards. Weird critique.

Sorry, when I said he wasn't "playing all game long" that was an error by me. I meant to say he wasn't "playing defense all game long". Kobe ALWAYS gives effort on the offensive end of the court, even if the goal is his points rather than points for the team.

And once you get past the fact that the 06 and 07 years were basically writeoffs in terms of championship aspirations because of Kobe's role in breaking up their championship core for ultimately selfish reasons (he'd rather lose as the man than win as a sidekick anymore), he actually played pretty decently those seasons given his supporting cast. Of course, I think it's reasonable to assign him some blame for his supporting cast since he forced Shaq out of town.

Jackson was fired right after, and Shaq was moved to placate Kobe, who signed immediately afterwards. Sure, Magic got his coach fired once too, but at least that turned out to be the right move. Kobe wasn't doing this for the right reasons, indeed he had to swallow his pride and agree for Phil to come back after things fell apart without him. Forcing the team to move Shaq in a rush, so he would agree to re-sign, almost certainly hurt the Lakers in their quest to get fair value back (and indeed, keeping Shaq would have been more sensible).

Okay that's clearer. I'd agree that Kobe wasn't the elite defender he was earlier in his career, but he was still quite good. You should still take into account the amount of energy Kobe had to exert on the offensive end that may have resulted in less than elite (or consistent) defense. He's not LeBron who can exert it more easily on both ends.

On your second point, I think you're falling into narrative (that isn't especially relevant) and conflating the issue here. You said Kobe's selfishness caused the team to lose less...and you expanded on that by explaining his role in the break up showed that he indeed is selfish? How does that impact his actual team performance?

[ElGee]

That Elgee post was interesting but I have one concern about the main underpinning of the whole post.

Would'nt using a Drtg number (which is useful in comparing a team within a season, not cross seasons imo among other things) which fluctuates with league average defensive ratings make faster paced league Drtg 80's players look worse than slower paced mid 2000's lower league average Drtg players?

It would naturally skew the sample for mid 2000's players having more games and therefore better balanced averages against lower Drtg numbers (like below 103).

A comparison using relative Drtg competition or something like that might be stronger perhaps.

A second study in how each player succeeds defensively against higher relative Ortg competition might be interesting as well, to balance out comparing combined two way impact.

(I may attempt it if I have that much time available)

You can see the relative DRtg in the tables. I started the run with relative DRtg's but I think they introduce more issues. You have a defensive environment based on how hard points are to come by -- that seems like a more normalized environment to me than relative DRtg. How would it be otherwise?

If you use relative DRtg, you've got David Robinson playing against dams who give up 54% TS on average compared to a guy whose opponent gives up 50% on average...

[90sAllDecade]

Another team comparison for Kobe vs Garnett (I even added Karl Malone as I add more players).

Kobe Bryant

17 year career (2014)

Years with 1 All Star: x12
With 2 All Star: x2
With 3 All Star: x1
HOF Coach: x11

[Kobe was an 18 year old high school rookie like Garnett in 96-97]

*Shaq O’Neal (MVP x1, Finals MVP x 3, All NBA 1st team x6, All NBA 2nd x1, All NBA 3rd x1, Def. 2nd team x3)
Pau Gasol (All NBA 2nd team x1, All NBA 3rd team x2)
Andrew Bynum (All NBA 2nd team x1)
Lamar Odom (Sixth Man of the Year x1)
Eddie Jones (Def. 2nd team x1)


Kevin Garnett:

18 year career (as of 2014)

Years with 1 All Star: x9
With 2 All Star: x5
With 3 All Star: x1
HOF Coach: 0

[Note: KG joined Boston at age 31-36, where these top three mostly apply, he had only x3 years in Minnesota with only 1 all-star in his prime. Cassell, Wally and Gugliotta as a high school rookie. If Doc Rivers makes it then x5 years HOF coaching, otherwise zero.]

*Paul Pierce (Finals MVP x1, All NBA 2nd team x1)
Rajon Rondo (All NBA 3rd team x1, Def. 1st team x2, Def. 2nd x2)

Karl Malone

18 year career

Years with 1 All Star: x12
With 2 All Star: x2
With 3 All Star: 0
HOF Coach: x15 years

[Includes Sloan mid-season and Phil Jackson, but Karl was age 40 with Phil, Kobe & Shaq]

*John Stockton (All NBA 1st team x2, All NBA 2nd x6, All NBA 3rd x2, Def. 2nd team x5)
Mark Eaton (Defensive Player of the Year x1, Def. 1st team x2, Def. 2nd team x2)
Kobe Bryant (All NBA 1st team x1, Def. 1st team x1)
Shaq O’neal (All NBA 1st team x1)

[magicmerl]

(although Gasol led the team in win shares both years they won, so he arguably wasn't the best player on the team in ANY of his championships, but maybe that's the hater in me saying that)

It is, unless you think Drexler was better than Olajuwon in the 95 playoffs.

I've just gone back and looked at the playoff status for Houston in 1995, and I can't for the life of me see how Drexler has such a high ORtg compared to Dream. It looks like Hakeem just does EVERYTHING better than Drexler in that postseason, barring a modest TS% lead for Clyde.

By the way, Kobe led the Lakers in WS (which I think is a nonsense stat) in 2009.

Erm, Gasol was better than Kobe in WS during 09...

Code: Select all

Player OWS DWS WS
Gasol  9.8 4.2 13.9
Kobe.  8.6 4.0 12.7

On your second point, I think you're falling into narrative (that isn't especially relevant) and conflating the issue here. You said Kobe's selfishness caused the team to lose less...and you expanded on that by explaining his role in the break up showed that he indeed is selfish? How does that impact his actual team performance?

His selfishness caused the breakup of a team that would have won more than the team he actually played for those seasons. Yes?

[Baller2014]

KG- 18 (Dr MJ, Baller2014, Fplii, Realbig3, Ronny, Quo, RSDC, Drza, MaGill, PCProductions, rich316, Jaivl, Notanoob, 90sAllDecade, Chuck Texas, Heartbreak Kid, acrossthecourt, SactoKingsFan)



Kobe- 9 (GC Pan, UBF, bbfan?, Jbulls, Ardee, Dhogkins, trex8063, batmana, DannyNoonan1221)

tsherkin never got his reasoning up, and I never wrote up my runoff vote but it looks like a clear victory for Garnett.

Actually KG had 1-2 other votes, not including Shaqattack (who I guess wasn't eligible). They're in the preceding pages. Merl and someone else I think but can't find who it was (stupid loose notes). Doesn't make a difference, but I thought I'd note it for posterity. Kobe also got 1 more run off vote (from Quinn).

[Senior]

By the way, Kobe led the Lakers in WS (which I think is a nonsense stat) in 2009.

Erm, Gasol was better than Kobe in WS during 09...

Code: Select all

Player OWS DWS WS
Gasol  9.8 4.2 13.9
Kobe.  8.6 4.0 12.7

Oh, I was looking at playoffs, not RS. 4.7 Kobe 4.3 Pau.

[magicmerl]

By the way, Kobe led the Lakers in WS (which I think is a nonsense stat) in 2009.

Erm, Gasol was better than Kobe in WS during 09...

Code: Select all

Player OWS DWS WS
Gasol  9.8 4.2 13.9
Kobe.  8.6 4.0 12.7

Oh, I was looking at playoffs, not RS. 4.7 Kobe 4.3 Pau.

The larger sample size and the fact that everyone plays 82 games in the season means that I like resular season stats more than playoff ones. Although given these guys played on the same team (and thus had similar conditions/seaosn length) your playoff point is fair.

I would still argue that Kobe's USG% of 32.9 in the playoffs that year is inexcuseable given that Gasol's USG% was 18.8%, which is less than the average player. All while Gasol was shooting the ball at a higher efficiency, and thus arguably shole have been shooting the ball nearly as much as Kobe was. If they both had a 26% USG, it would be clear to everyone that Gasol produced more.

[90sAllDecade]

That Elgee post was interesting but I have one concern about the main underpinning of the whole post.

Would'nt using a Drtg number (which is useful in comparing a team within a season, not cross seasons imo among other things) which fluctuates with league average defensive ratings make faster paced league Drtg 80's players look worse than slower paced mid 2000's lower league average Drtg players?

It would naturally skew the sample for mid 2000's players having more games and therefore better balanced averages against lower Drtg numbers (like below 103).

A comparison using relative Drtg competition or something like that might be stronger perhaps.

A second study in how each player succeeds defensively against higher relative Ortg competition might be interesting as well, to balance out comparing combined two way impact.

(I may attempt it if I have that much time available)

You can see the relative DRtg in the tables. I started the run with relative DRtg's but I think they introduce more issues. You have a defensive environment based on how hard points are to come by -- that seems like a more normalized environment to me than relative DRtg. How would it be otherwise?

If you use relative DRtg, you've got David Robinson playing against dams who give up 54% TS on average compared to a guy whose opponent gives up 50% on average...

I'm not 100% as a better choice as I'm not an expert and I appreciate the work involved, I guess it just seems uneven when comparing Drtg across seasons imo.

The defensive environment isn't the same decade to decade or season to season and some players could only play so many sub 103 Drtg teams in their season versus others who could have better balanced averages playing more.

The sample size against sub 103 defenses increases during the mid 2000's versus players like Jordan, Olajuwon and Malone who played in the 80's while the others didn't.

Rule and pace changes also affect league average Ortg and Drtgs.

If a player in the 80's played a #1 ranked defense in a league that had rules/pace conducive to a higher league Drtg it would look like they played a worse defense more times than a mid 00's player who played against a #15 ranked defense with rules/pace that encouraged a very low league Drtg.

Perhaps it was a tougher environment but it also doesn't factor that those same 80's players would be older by the time those lower league Drtg averages rolled around in the mid 90's or mid 2000's in the comparisons altering the sample.

If those players were in their prime during that era it would boost their stats against a larger higher Drtg sample and hurt them even more in the comparison as they age finally playing sub 103 teams more often and declined.

I wonder if some type of per100 comparison would help too? Again, I'm not sure and nothing alternative would be perfect, it just doesn't seem even imo.

[MistyMountain20]

On your second point, I think you're falling into narrative (that isn't especially relevant) and conflating the issue here. You said Kobe's selfishness caused the team to lose less...and you expanded on that by explaining his role in the break up showed that he indeed is selfish? How does that impact his actual team performance?

His selfishness caused the breakup of a team that would have won more than the team he actually played for those seasons. Yes?

You made it seem (to me at least) that his selfish play held back the Lakers in the proceeding seasons without Shaq. Anyways, I think you're simplifying the situation (as in Shaq has had trouble himself with star perimeter players and organizations, Phil admitting to not treating Kobe fairly during his tenure etc.) but all of that I still find to be conjecture and not that compelling of an impact. To each his own.

[Texas Chuck]

Another team comparison for Kobe vs Garnett (I even added Karl Malone as I add more players).

Kobe Bryant

17 year career (2014)

Years with 1 All Star: x12
With 2 All Star: x2
With 3 All Star: x1
HOF Coach: x11

[Kobe was an 18 year old high school rookie like Garnett in 96-97]
*Shaq O’Neal (MVP x1, Finals MVP x 3, All NBA 1st team x6, All NBA 2nd x1, All NBA 3rd x1, Def. 2nd team x3)
Pau Gasol (All NBA 2nd team x1, All NBA 3rd team x2)
Andrew Bynum (All NBA 2nd team x1)
Lamar Odom (Sixth Man of the Year x1)
Eddie Jones (Def. 2nd team x1)


Kevin Garnett:

18 year career (as of 2014)

Years with 1 All Star: x9
With 2 All Star: x5
With 3 All Star: x1
HOF Coach: 0

[Note: KG joined Boston at age 31-36, where these top three mostly apply, he had only x3 years in Minnesota with only 1 all-star in his prime. Cassell, Wally and Gugliotta as a high school rookie. If Doc Rivers makes it then x5 years HOF coaching, otherwise zero.]

*Paul Pierce (Finals MVP x1, All NBA 2nd team x1)
Rajon Rondo (All NBA 3rd team x1, Def. 1st team x2, Def. 2nd x2)

Karl Malone

18 year career

Years with 1 All Star: x12
With 2 All Star: x2
With 3 All Star: 0
HOF Coach: x16 years

[Includes Sloan mid-season and Phil Jackson, but Karl was age 40 with Phil, Kobe & Shaq]

*John Stockton (All NBA 1st team x2, All NBA 2nd x6, All NBA 3rd x2, Def. 2nd team x5)
Mark Eaton (Defensive Player of the Year x1, Def. 1st team x2, Def. 2nd team x2)
Kobe Bryant (All NBA 1st team x1, Def. 1st team x1)
Shaq O’neal (All NBA 1st team x1)

So I referenced this list and mentioned how impressed you would obviously be with Dirk based on this idea, and then you don't even include Dirk, but add Malone?

Cmon mate, help a brother out.

[90sAllDecade]

You got it, I am impressed with Dirk.

I'll include him next thread as well as Dr. J, Moses and Barkley if I can. Robinson, West and Oscar would likely be interesting too.

[Texas Chuck]

You got it, I am impressed with Dirk.

I'll include him next thread as well as Dr. J, Moses and Barkley if I can. Robinson, West and Oscar would likely be interesting too.

Look forward to it. thanks