2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[yoyoboy]

We're about a third of the way through the season and after tonight, the Cavs will likely have a ~4 SRS, which should rank 1st in the East and 4th in the entire league. I don't think anybody before the season would've expected that.

I'm biased, but I really do think 14-12 understates how good this team has been so far. #1 in strength of schedule (with the easiest schedule left) and Mobley missed our toughest stretch of games against BKN twice, GS, and PHX while Allen and Lauri also missed 2 of them, and we still managed to keep it competitive until the end with a depleted roster. In general, the rotation players for this team have missed a decent amount of time, plus this team is getting better as the season progresses. A lot of people have this team pegged as around play-in team territory and a great success story for the year, but I'm curious to see if this team can actually fight for like the 4th seed, especially now that Miami is down Bam for over a month.

[yoyoboy]

To add on to that:

Garland + Mobley + Allen:
357 MP
111.2 ORTG
100.7 DRTG
+10.5 NET

Our "big three" has been doing well together. But even those figures don't really actually capture their play because it includes a decent chunk of minutes with Sexton, who's been horrible this year, essentially tanking every lineup he played in, and was always a bad fit with Garland in the first place.

Garland + Mobley + Allen with Sexton OFF:
237 MP
116.3 ORTG
98.7 DRTG
+17.6 NET

When you limit it down even further (sample size alert obviously) and take out one of the worst offensive players in the league, Okoro, who's essentially unplayable at this point given the fact that opposing teams stick their center on him and don't even take more than a step outside the paint to pretend to guard him:

Garland + Mobley + Allen with Sexton and Okoro OFF:
90 MP
133.1 ORTG
103.4 DRTG
+29.7 NET

Finally, since the Rubio and Garland pairing has been awesome this season, I just wanted to look at how he fits into the equation, and I also decided to take out Lamar Stevens, the long lost twin of Okoro in terms of NBA skills.

Garland + Mobley + Allen + Rubio with Sexton, Okoro, and Stevens OFF:
74 MP
148.2 ORTG
101.4 DRTG
+46.8 NET

The fifth guy in those lineups include Lauri, Osman, and Dean Wade. Again, obviously a limited sample size, but with even just a capable offensive player in place of Okoro who's not a total liability defensively, I feel this team would go to the next level.

[mikejames23]

I really see it being difficult for LeBron to have a great year again. It will likely only go downhill from here. Played just fine tonight but Memphis easily won IMO. Only good thing I think is he'll still record good statlines, if you really want to go over great boxscores.

[Dr Positivity]

Lu Dort offensive game seems to be coming along pretty well

[Peregrine01]

I really see it being difficult for LeBron to have a great year again. It will likely only go downhill from here. Played just fine tonight but Memphis easily won IMO. Only good thing I think is he'll still record good statlines, if you really want to go over great boxscores.

I've been stunned at how he's getting routinely beaten off the dribble. Now that's happened before because he relaxes in the regular season but the Lakers need wins right now.

[The-Power]

Poole, No Steph/Wiggins (142 minutes) 100.0 Ortg 107.6 Drtg -7.6 Net

Basically I think Kerr should start limiting the Poole+bench lineups a bit more, they're where GS has gotten into the most trouble (relatively) so far this season. Maybe it'll get fixed when Klay comes back.

Only now saw this post and a quick note here: Poole has played a bunch of garbage time minutes this year that should probably be excluded. Line-ups with Poole/Green on and Wiggins/Curry off have a +2.3 net rating in 42 minutes (small sample and not great but okay). Line-ups with Poole on, Wiggins/Curry off plus none of the Rookies (a proxy to filter out garbage time albeit not a perfect one) have a -2.2 net rating in 90 minutes (not good but not as bad as the -7.6 net rating posted above).

But yeah, so far Poole has not been able to create really good line-ups when completely on his own. However, Poole on/Curry off line-ups have a fairly decent +5.1 net rating with Poole posting a 58.9 TS% on 32.6 USG% with a 26.2 AST% in 343 minutes – which is pretty admirable. Poole+Wiggins on/Curry off line-ups even have a +12.2 net rating in 196 minutes in which Poole posts a ridiculous 65.9 TS% on 30.4 USG% with a 24.5 AST% – both of which (individual and team numbers) are incredible (and likely unsustainable).

So it seems like Poole is doing his part lifting non-Curry line-ups as long as he isn't asked to carry complete bench line-ups – which just shouldn't really happen anyway unless it's garbage time (which has dragged his line-up numbers down a bit). Of course, it's still small sample size alert in all respects.

[falcolombardi]

Lu Dort offensive game seems to be coming along pretty well

for sure

i have high expwctations on him amd giddey down the Road

unfortunately poku game has not improved at all in year 2

i wish wenbayama draft was the next one so okc could try to draft him and compliment the team

[LukaTheGOAT]

MVP talk

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[falcolombardi]

the way mvp usually works is a combination of team record, great stats/play (not necesarrily the best, but one of the best) and good narrative (related to player fame/popularity)

curry fits all 3 and jokic probably only 1 unfortunately for him

curry accomplishes

[Texas Chuck]

the way mvp usually works is a combination of team record, great stats/play (not necesarrily the best, but one of the best) and good narrative (related to player fame/popularity)

curry fits all 3 and jokic probably only 1 unfortunately for him

curry accomplishes

Right now Giannis is getting completely overlooked, but honestly he's probably the best player going. And now that its not him and Grayson Allen versus the world, the Bucks record is getting back to where it belongs.

But people still refuse to acknowledge just what a great offensive player Giannis is(because shooting) and the Warriors start got people focused on Curry.

[Doctor MJ]

So just some thoughts here on the MVP stuff so far:

For me it's clear cut Steph Curry to this point. That's not to say that necessarily that I think Curry has objectively been way, way, way better than everyone else in the league, but it's stunning how effective the team built around him has become - generally yes, but also specifically when he's on the court - and this is something that I actively think about win I think about the MVP.

I understand why people essentially see that as winning bias, but to me Most Valuable Player is about helping to create the most effective team possible, and from this perspective what Curry's doing right now is historically significant.

I also understand arguments that other people deserve credit, and there's where I'd note that Draymond Green would be my DPOY and Steve Kerr my COY. The story of the Warriors success is certainly more than just the success of their best player, but I think it's important not to be too cynical when apportioning credit for outlier success.

There are two other players right now that scream to me MVP-level when they're playing:

Giannis Antetokounmpo & Nikola Jokic

I don't think it's clear necessarily that Curry has been "better" than either of them, only that he's accomplishing something more significant based on what we've seen so far.

I think Kevin Durant has been excellent, but I also think we're seeing once again that he just doesn't seem to yield the same type of team impact as the guys on the very end of the spectrum here despite the individual brilliance. I think this is going to always be a disconnect between how I see KD, and how many others see him.

I can certainly see a route to Durant being my POY when all is said and done - if he's the most outstanding player on a team that wins each playoff matchup until they get the title, he'll likely be an obvious POY. But when I focus on value added over the course of the 82 games, he feels a tier down compared to the guys above.

After that Big 4 that everyone has understandably focused on, there's one other guy I feel a need to single out:

Rudy Gobert

The salience of the debate surrounding Gobert's rank is quieter than last year because the Jazz don't have the best record in the league, but we are once again seeing numbers emerge showing that the Jazz are ridiculously effective in the regular season built around Gobert, and all it would take is a playoff run where the Jazz don't run into a great 5-out team and the Jazz could run the table with Gobert as the best player.

The basketball world - with me among everyone else - doesn't "feel" that Gobert is a candidate for best player in the world because of both the limitations in his offensive skills and the disappointments we've seen in the playoffs, but the reality is that this Jazz team has a real chance to win the championship in any given year because of him.

[Outside]

Things can obviously change, but Curry, Giannis, and Jokic will likely be the MVP race. Durant is a level below those three.

Jokic has outstanding numbers, but he missed a bunch of games, and Denver's record is sub-.500. Considering their injury situation, it seems unlikely that Denver's record will be good enough for Jokic to have any legitimate shot at winning.

Curry has tailed off recently, but the season has ebbs and flows, and my guess is that he'll do better when the three-point record is behind him. If the Warriors can stay top two or three in the West, Curry will be a favorite. It will be interesting to see how Klay's return impacts the Warriors in general and Curry in particular.

Giannis will ultimately be another favorite along with Curry. The Bucks had a slow start, but I won't be surprised if they wind up with the best record in the East. Giannis is awesome.

The thing with Curry and MVP is how much voters will credit him for his indirect impact. His box score stats are good, but it's the combination of that with his indirect impact that makes his case for MVP.

[Doctor MJ]

On the other side of things:

I worry for Doncic. I see the incredible ceiling for him others see, and I understand why we can point to reasons why things aren't ideal for him right now, but I'm losing excitement for him.

[falcolombardi]

On the other side of things:

I worry for Doncic. I see the incredible ceiling for him others see, and I understand why we can point to reasons why things aren't ideal for him right now, but I'm losing excitement for him.

what are your worries with him?

[Doctor MJ]

On the other side of things:

I worry for Doncic. I see the incredible ceiling for him others see, and I understand why we can point to reasons why things aren't ideal for him right now, but I'm losing excitement for him.

what are your worries with him?

I worry that in general I'm still not seeing the Mavs do amazing with him on the floor, and aren't seeing them really suffer without him.

This may not stop Doncic from willing teams to championships - because all he has to do is beat 4 opponents by any amount and that will do the trick - but for a guy called a savant, we've yet to see the kind of separation from the mean that I'd have hoped to see by now, particularly when the franchise has basically sold out everything else in the name of building around him.

[falcolombardi]

On the other side of things:

I worry for Doncic. I see the incredible ceiling for him others see, and I understand why we can point to reasons why things aren't ideal for him right now, but I'm losing excitement for him.

what are your worries with him?

I worry that in general I'm still not seeing the Mavs do amazing with him on the floor, and aren't seeing them really suffer without him.

This may not stop Doncic from willing teams to championships - because all he has to do is beat 4 opponents by any amount and that will do the trick - but for a guy called a savant, we've yet to see the kind of separation from the mean that I'd have hoped to see by now, particularly when the franchise has basically sold out everything else in the name of building around him.

what should that separation look like by now?

doncic is roughly the same age (although with more pro experience) as pre mvp lebron (2008) and pre houston harden (2012) two guys he often gets compared with as some sort of "best case/worst case" scenario (although harden as worst case may have been overly high expectations)

he has shown more than harden (although with a much bigger greenlight) and less than lebron (by plus-minus stats, his boxscore is closer imo) which is a fairly good range in my opinion for an all time great

is it too unlikely to think that he could have a mid 20's leap like lebron made a huge leap in 2009 ? i wouldnt guarantee but i see it as possible if he finds more ways to impact off ball or improves his jumpshot or defense

i also am not sure the mavs have done the best job of building about him regardless of how much they sold out to do so, porzingis is a theorically good fit but how his level of play, after 2020 specially, has been that of a solid starter rather thsn a star which is what he gets paid

they lost on seth curry which was a perfect piece around doncic in Exchange of inproving the defense (but didnt actually inprove it thst much)

although i would say he has a couple of really solid (and relatively cheap) guards that can carry the offense without him (which is why i dont put that much weight on the mavs being good without luka)

[Doctor MJ]

what are your worries with him?

I worry that in general I'm still not seeing the Mavs do amazing with him on the floor, and aren't seeing them really suffer without him.

This may not stop Doncic from willing teams to championships - because all he has to do is beat 4 opponents by any amount and that will do the trick - but for a guy called a savant, we've yet to see the kind of separation from the mean that I'd have hoped to see by now, particularly when the franchise has basically sold out everything else in the name of building around him.

what should that separation look like by now?

doncic is roughly the same age (although with more pro experience) as pre mvp lebron (2008) and pre houston harden (2012) two guys he often gets compared with as some sort of "best case/worst case" scenario (although harden as worst case may have been overly high expectations)

he has shown more than harden (although with a much bigger greenlight) and less than lebron (by plus-minus stats, his boxscore is closer imo) which is a fairly good range in my opinion for an all time great

is it too unlikely to think that he could have a mid 20's leap like lebron made a huge leap in 2009 ? i wouldnt guarantee but i see it as possible if he finds more ways to impact off ball or improves his jumpshot or defense

i also am not sure the mavs have done the best job of building about him regardless of how much they sold out to do so, porzingis is a theorically good fit but how his level of play, after 2020 specially, has been that of a solid starter rather thsn a star which is what he gets paid

they lost on seth curry which was a perfect piece around doncic in Exchange of inproving the defense (but didnt actually inprove it thst much)

although i would say he has a couple of really solid (and relatively cheap) guards that can carry the offense without him (which is why i dont put that much weight on the mavs being good without luka)

Sorry, I was vague. I mean evidence in on/off. Here's what Doncic's on/off numbers look like in the 3 years of all-star ball we have for him so far - that is his 2nd through 4th year:

'19-20 +1.2
'20-21 +3.0
'21-22 -7.6

Now here's LeBron's first 3 years of him being an all-star (also 2nd through 4th year) - which I'll note doesn't even take us to 2008:

'04-05 +8.8
'05-06 +10.4
'06-07 +8.8

Not remotely the same thing, and to be clear, it's not about matching "The Chosen One" here, this is just the type of separation I'm expecting if you are seen as by far the best player on your team - and if we're complaining about Doncic's supporting cast here, it's weird he hasn't been able to obtain such separation.

Since you mention Harden, I think it's worth a similar treatment with him, and I'm going to start from the first year where we on here started talking about Harden as a BIG deal (his 3rd year) despite the fact he was not yet in the position I just described:

'11-12 +8.0
'12-13 -3.6
'13-14 +7.6
'14-15 +8.6
'15-16 +7.1

So first, we see apparent separation in '11-12, but since Harden wasn't the guy playing as the lead focus point on the team, I think it's worth having skepticism broadly on that basis. It says good things about Harden, but it would be unfair to say he was succeeding where Doncic was failing. Though I will say for anyone thinking Harden was being carried by Durant & Westbrook here, Harden was the lead +/- guy on the team. Not saying he was his team's most impressive player, but he really did stand out in his impact.

Then we see Harden get his own team in Houston, and we also see his separation die off and actually turn negative. Doesn't mean the team would literally have been better off without him, but top tier alphas are good enough to take on the brunt of the opponent's strategies and still have separation, and in general I'd say that Harden in that first year in Houston struggled a bit to find impact even as he was impressing us all by the capacity he was demontraing.

As such, to me we first really see the separation I'm talking about from Harden beginning in '13-14. And yup, he was older then than Doncic is now. Doncic remains young and I'm still not just saying he could take the leap forward, I still feel like it would be weird if he somehow never takes that leap. But I'd thought we'd have seen it by now given the breakthrough of his sophomore season, and we're still waiting.

[Texas Chuck]

On the other side of things:

I worry for Doncic. I see the incredible ceiling for him others see, and I understand why we can point to reasons why things aren't ideal for him right now, but I'm losing excitement for him.

what are your worries with him?

I worry that in general I'm still not seeing the Mavs do amazing with him on the floor, and aren't seeing them really suffer without him.

This may not stop Doncic from willing teams to championships - because all he has to do is beat 4 opponents by any amount and that will do the trick - but for a guy called a savant, we've yet to see the kind of separation from the mean that I'd have hoped to see by now, particularly when the franchise has basically sold out everything else in the name of building around him.

He was out of shape (still is) and then has been bothered by knee/ankle injuries(already out for tomorrow). Admittedly he's been a disappointment this year though after his first 3 years being realistically more than could have been asked of him. I'm hoping that the coaching change and the physical concerns are a primary reason rather than a Luka just isn't as great as we thought. But admittedly that's always a possibility.

But as you know I follow Dallas pretty close and I'm a huge team-building nerd. The Mavs have absolutely not come close to selling out in terms of building around him. They made one big gamble on KP that failed and everything else has been around the margins. There will be another big move at some point, but thinking this is what Cuban and co envisioned as the final team around Luka couldn't be more wrong. No idea where you are getting that?

[Peregrine01]

The biggest change with Luka's game that I've observed is that he isn't getting to the line anywhere near like he used to - instead he's settling for a lot of jumpers, which he isn't all that proficient at. It's really hurt his scoring efficiency and his ability to make plays for his teammates. This is probably due a lot to his current physical shape but I'd note that he was never a guy that blew by guys but, similar to Harden, used his size to ride guys to the rim. I think the new rules have really affected him and have allowed defenders to crowd him a lot more, somewhat negating his size advantage going to the rim.

[Peregrine01]

In other news....is the unthinkable gonna happen? Will Andrew Wiggins be an all-star this year?