The Stephen Curry Thread (2015-16 Pt. 2)

[HotRocks34]

I forgot about On/Off Net Rating (team, not individual). This is from NBA.com (as compared with BBREF's On/Off)

Curry West Conf Finals =======> -02.3
Curry playoffs ==============> -03.0

Westbrook West Conf Finals ==> +11.8
Westbrook playoffs ==========> +12.6

[Shot Clock]

For the Finals, he's been bad. For the playoffs as a whole, looking past the missed games, he's been pretty good. Better than Durant, Westbrook, Green, etc.

No. Not in the Conference Finals, not in the whole playoffs. At least not through Game 3 of the Finals.

Playoffs Curry (through Game 3 of the Finals)
24/6/06 with 23.4 PER and .170 WS/48 and +07.0 BPM

Playoffs Westbrook
26/7/11 with 26.9 PER and .209 WS/48 and +11.7 BPM


Western Conf Finals Curry
28/6/06 with 26.1 PER

Western Conf Finals Westbrook
27/7/11 with 27.4 PER


So...yeah. That analysis isn't going to hold up to statistical scrutiny, it doesn't look like.


Anyways, Curry is having a tough time in the Finals so far. He had a tough time in the first 3 games of the 2015 Finals also, if I remember right. Here's how the numbers look then and now [TPA = 3 point attempts]:

2015 Finals Curry through 3 games
24/5/6 on 40/32/92 with 21 FGA/gm [11 TPA/gm] and 5 TO/gm

2016 Finals Curry through 3 games
16/5/4 on 44/40/100 with 13 FGA/gm [08 TPA/gm] and 5 TO/gm

So, what seems to be happening this year as compared with last year is the Cavs are denying Steph shots. He's simply not getting as many attempts up as he did last year through 3 games of the Finals. Including three-point attempts.

I don't remember what the Cavs' defensive strategy was in the Finals last year. But clearly this year they are working to limit the attempts and points of both Thompson and particularly Curry. And it's having an effect.

Still, Curry got himself on track last year as the Finals wore on. And there's no reason to think (except for possibly the Cavs' defensive attention on him so far this series) that can't happen again in these Finals.

Will be interesting to see how things unfold from here in the series. Warriors are still in great shape.

Della was doing a great job on Curry last year until he needed to be hospitalized after Game 3 for dehydration and exhaustion.

[HotRocks34]

I just personally thought that Westbrook outplayed him.

He definitely didn't.

Going to have to disagree with you on that, TSherkin.

My previous post to this one only convinces me more.

Curry gave it a good run, but Westbrook was both better and more impactful in the Conference Finals.

Curry's team was better, though. That I think we can agree on.

[HotRocks34]

Della was doing a great job on Curry last year until he needed to be hospitalized after Game 3 for dehydration and exhaustion.

Correct. And that's something I should have mentioned. Thanks for that.

[mischievous]

Curry's ultra efficiency is unquestionably the product of the Warriors being super talented around him. Put him on a team less talented and he becomes a normal superstar and not a GOAT peak superstar.

What?! Curry's cast isn't that good and Curry doesn't need to touch the ball to have a humongous impact!

[kayess]

Curry's ultra efficiency is unquestionably the product of the Warriors being super talented around him. Put him on a team less talented and he becomes a normal superstar and not a GOAT peak superstar.

What?! Curry's cast isn't that good and Curry doesn't need to touch the ball to have a humongous impact!

You're being sarcastic, but the latter part of your statement is actually true. And it's true not just because Steph's amazing off-ball, but because his team is so **** stacked that the 6th and 7th men can all dribble, pass, and shoot at a high level.

[tsherkin]

Curry gave it a good run, but Westbrook was both better and more impactful in the Conference Finals.

Curry's team was better, though. That I think we can agree on.

Having watched him helping to shoot the team out of the series, I can't really agree with you on that front, particularly given his heavy responsibility for their collapse over the final three games of the series (right there alongside Durant, though for different reasons).

Remember, you're looking at him and trying to assess offensive value, but the Thunder were well worse than their RS selves in that series (team ORTG 4.3 points worse than the RS) and that doesn't properly describe their brutal performances in the final two games of the series, nor their end-game (and general second-half) failures. It also doesn't seem to reflect on how much of the offense Westy was shouldering and floundering with, as far as his scoring load.

I don't see any kind of argument that he was better or higher-impact. I see some ways to look at him and say that he wasn't dreadful, but he had a LOOOT of problems and integral involvement in most of the worst stretches of basketball and worst decisions made under pressure the Thunder experienced in that series. Him and Durant, the latter of whom proved that he struggles badly as a ball-handling creator against stronger defenses and wasn't much better as far as his overall scoring performance (and was worse from 3).

Russ waned as the series went on, and peaked in games 3 and 4. He was terrible over the final three games, unquestionably, and a sloppy mess in Game 4, scoring aside.

Curry, by contrast, posted 31, 31 and 36 points in Games 5-7, producing a 3-game average of 32.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 7.7 apg. He also added 3.7 tpg, but his worst game in that stretch was 59.7% TS and he averaged 64.7% TS over those games, along with 127 ORTG. He also had a 5-steal game and a near triple-double. When the series was on the line, he was at his best and kicking in OKC's teeth. There was no question that he dominated the end of that series, while by contrast, Westbrook was at his worst in those games. Keep in mind as well that Steph's box score stats are undercut by playing 29-ish minutes in games 2 and 3, so a direct comparison of their box score performance means only so much, which is why I've been trying to establish context of performance a little more, and look at in-series trends.

[bondom34]

Curry gave it a good run, but Westbrook was both better and more impactful in the Conference Finals.

Curry's team was better, though. That I think we can agree on.

Having watched him helping to shoot the team out of the series, I can't really agree with you on that front, particularly given his heavy responsibility for their collapse over the final three games of the series (right there alongside Durant, though for different reasons).

Remember, you're looking at him and trying to assess offensive value, but the Thunder were well worse than their RS selves in that series (team ORTG 4.3 points worse than the RS) and that doesn't properly describe their brutal performances in the final two games of the series, nor their end-game (and general second-half) failures. It also doesn't seem to reflect on how much of the offense Westy was shouldering and floundering with, as far as his scoring load.

I don't see any kind of argument that he was better or higher-impact. I see some ways to look at him and say that he wasn't dreadful, but he had a LOOOT of problems and integral involvement in most of the worst stretches of basketball and worst decisions made under pressure the Thunder experienced in that series. Him and Durant, the latter of whom proved that he struggles badly as a ball-handling creator against stronger defenses and wasn't much better as far as his overall scoring performance (and was worse from 3).

Russ waned as the series went on, and peaked in games 3 and 4. He was terrible over the final three games, unquestionably, and a sloppy mess in Game 4, scoring aside.

Curry, by contrast, posted 31, 31 and 36 points in Games 5-7, producing a 3-game average of 32.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 7.7 apg. He also added 3.7 tpg, but his worst game in that stretch was 59.7% TS and he averaged 64.7% TS over those games, along with 127 ORTG. He also had a 5-steal game and a near triple-double. When the series was on the line, he was at his best and kicking in OKC's teeth. There was no question that he dominated the end of that series, while by contrast, Westbrook was at his worst in those games. Keep in mind as well that Steph's box score stats are undercut by playing 29-ish minutes in games 2 and 3, so a direct comparison of their box score performance means only so much, which is why I've been trying to establish context of performance a little more, and look at in-series trends.

I'm seeing what you're saying here (and have to go to a meeting so can't go further in depth atm) but Curry's early games were significantly weaker than Russ, while he came on late. Russ was over the 7 games stronger IMO as well, and I think its at least up for debate, but he wasn't the core of fault for OKC's loss. At the same time, Curry was rather underwhelming when set to standard throughout the series. Russ had some lapses but Curry's offensive game was pretty clearly not there while WB was there over a larger portion of teh series. From a team standpoint, Russ also had OKC at a better net rating than Curry for the series while on court. Curry happened to have Klay as a teammate.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Playoffs&VsConference=West&PORound=3&sort=NET_RATING&dir=1

[HotRocks34]

Curry gave it a good run, but Westbrook was both better and more impactful in the Conference Finals.

Curry's team was better, though. That I think we can agree on.

Having watched him helping to shoot the team out of the series, I can't really agree with you on that front, particularly given his heavy responsibility for their collapse over the final three games of the series (right there alongside Durant, though for different reasons).

Remember, you're looking at him and trying to assess offensive value, but the Thunder were well worse than their RS selves in that series (team ORTG 4.3 points worse than the RS) and that doesn't properly describe their brutal performances in the final two games of the series, nor their end-game (and general second-half) failures. It also doesn't seem to reflect on how much of the offense Westy was shouldering and floundering with, as far as his scoring load.

I don't see any kind of argument that he was better or higher-impact. I see some ways to look at him and say that he wasn't dreadful, but he had a LOOOT of problems and integral involvement in most of the worst stretches of basketball and worst decisions made under pressure the Thunder experienced in that series. Him and Durant, the latter of whom proved that he struggles badly as a ball-handling creator against stronger defenses and wasn't much better as far as his overall scoring performance (and was worse from 3).

Russ waned as the series went on, and peaked in games 3 and 4. He was terrible over the final three games, unquestionably, and a sloppy mess in Game 4, scoring aside.

Curry, by contrast, posted 31, 31 and 36 points in Games 5-7, producing a 3-game average of 32.7 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 7.7 apg. He also added 3.7 tpg, but his worst game in that stretch was 59.7% TS and he averaged 64.7% TS over those games, along with 127 ORTG. He also had a 5-steal game and a near triple-double. When the series was on the line, he was at his best and kicking in OKC's teeth. There was no question that he dominated the end of that series, while by contrast, Westbrook was at his worst in those games. Keep in mind as well that Steph's box score stats are undercut by playing 29-ish minutes in games 2 and 3, so a direct comparison of their box score performance means only so much, which is why I've been trying to establish context of performance a little more, and look at in-series trends.

That's fair and you make good points. I do think the Thunder wore down as the series continued.

What's tough for me to get over is that the Warriors were better off in the Conference Finals, from a Net Rating perspective, with Curry off the court. That's not a ringing endorsement of his impact, I think.

[HotRocks34]

One thing I noticed in looking at that On/Off Team Net Rating research, and I would imagine Bondom34 can verify this as a fan, is that the OKC offense is horrendous without Westbrook on the court. He really makes that offense roll. Huge difference without him on the court from an offensive perspective.

2016 playoffs OKC Team ORTG
Westbrook on ===> 112.2
Westbrook off ===> 094.4

[bondom34]

One thing I noticed in looking at that On/Off Team Net Rating research, and I would imagine Bondom34 can verify this as a fan, is that the OKC offense is horrendous without Westbrook on the court. He really makes that offense roll. Huge difference without him on the court from an offensive perspective.

2016 playoffs OKC Team ORTG
Westbrook on ===> 112.2
Westbrook off ===> 094.4

Yep, they're totally useless offensively without him since Payne got benched. Its another reason I think he's got an argument for the series (and have him just behind Curry in my POY ballot). They're totally inept when he sits.

[HotRocks34]

One thing I noticed in looking at that On/Off Team Net Rating research, and I would imagine Bondom34 can verify this as a fan, is that the OKC offense is horrendous without Westbrook on the court. He really makes that offense roll. Huge difference without him on the court from an offensive perspective.

2016 playoffs OKC Team ORTG
Westbrook on ===> 112.2
Westbrook off ===> 094.4

Yep, they're totally useless offensively without him since Payne got benched. Its another reason I think he's got an argument for the series (and have him just behind Curry in my POY ballot). They're totally inept when he sits.

That is a staggering figure. To bring this back to Curry since it's his thread, there's no comparison with how the GSW offense fares when he sits (in the playoffs, at least). And i'm not saying that to belittle Curry but to point out how much offensive burden Westbrook has. Without him, OKC's offense is dead.

[therealbig3]

On/off in a sample size that small pretty much doesn't mean anything.

Curry outplayed him for most of that series. I'm not even trying to slight Westbrook here, he's a great player, but not only was he outplayed offensively, he was outplayed defensively as well.

[bondom34]

On/off in a sample size that small pretty much doesn't mean anything.

Curry outplayed him for most of that series. I'm not even trying to slight Westbrook here, he's a great player, but not only was he outplayed offensively, he was outplayed defensively as well.

See I'd just disagree. The difference offensively was Klay was there for Curry, Westbrook didn't have Durant playing well at all. It came down to the "others" and OKC's didn't perform late series.

I don't know if its cut and dry either way but I'd lean Westbrook, some others seem to agree, some lean Curry.

That said, not really relevant to the here and now, and I'm not sure what was wrong yesterday. Didn't seem hurt, just not aggressive and turning it over kind of carelessly.

[tsherkin]

I'm seeing what you're saying here (and have to go to a meeting so can't go further in depth atm) but Curry's early games were significantly weaker than Russ, while he came on late.

Absolutely. I think they had mirror series, almost.

Russ was over the 7 games stronger IMO as well, and I think its at least up for debate,

I don't really see that, to be honest. Certainly not over the stretch of seven games where he was an embarrassment on offense outside of two games, and was making all sorts of critical errors.

but he wasn't the core of fault for OKC's loss.

Yes, I labored to make it clear that this was not my point. OKC had more than one problem, and Durant was equally at fault where this series was concerned, no doubt.

WB was there over a larger portion of teh series.

Was he? Playmaking off-set by horrendous volume scoring, I'm not so sure I'd make the argument with that sort of conviction, personally.

[mtron929]

I hope Curry is not in some weird mental funk. That is, I am disturbed that how nonchalant he looks on the court. I am wondering if there is a possibility that he would rather look disinterested and play bad as opposed to look very intense/engaging and play bad. That is, all of this finals MVP talk/injury issues/playing badly in the biggest stages is getting to him in a weird mental way such that he does not how to conduct himself on the court.

[bondom34]

WB was there over a larger portion of teh series.

Was he? Playmaking off-set by horrendous volume scoring, I'm not so sure I'd make the argument with that sort of conviction, personally.

Just snipping this b/c it seems we're pretty much agreeing elsewhere, but I would. Given the numbers posted, Curry really wasn't running the offense better when on court vs. off by much if at all. Russ on the other hand was single handedly running OKCs a large chunk of the series.

There's not a definite right or wrong to this one, and it seems there's a split on it here too, but I'd say Russ took it over a bigger portion of the series than Curry to me for sure. Ultimately it was Klay getting hot that mattered most and playing like the grandchild of the kids of Reggie Miller and Ray Allen. You pull his amazing game 6 and we're all blaming Curry for GSW's loss instead of debating who was even better.

[mtron929]

In other words, it might be possible that Curry kind of thought that this series is a wrap and started to focus on how to enhance his performance to get the finals MVP award. That is, he thinks it would be so embarrassing if he does not get the finals MVP award again two years in a row and thus he is playing a game within a game. And thus, when he struggles early in the game, this kind of mental pressure compounds on itself.

For those of you who counter by saying that Curry only thinks about helping his team winning a championship, I think that is a naive take on what human beings value and where their self-interest align.

[therealbig3]

On/off in a sample size that small pretty much doesn't mean anything.

Curry outplayed him for most of that series. I'm not even trying to slight Westbrook here, he's a great player, but not only was he outplayed offensively, he was outplayed defensively as well.

See I'd just disagree. The difference offensively was Klay was there for Curry, Westbrook didn't have Durant playing well at all. It came down to the "others" and OKC's didn't perform late series.

I don't know if its cut and dry either way but I'd lean Westbrook, some others seem to agree, some lean Curry.

That said, not really relevant to the here and now, and I'm not sure what was wrong yesterday. Didn't seem hurt, just not aggressive and turning it over kind of carelessly.

I'm sorry to harp on this, and however you reply, I'll read it and then leave it at that.

Westbrook had two HUGE games in games 3 and 4, both in terms of +/- and in terms of the box score. Both of those were blowout wins for the Thunder, and Westbrook definitely added on towards the end when the games were no longer in doubt. I mean, Curry was getting called out in this thread for statpadding (and I agree, he did statpad last night)...those games are an example of the same thing. And in a small sample size like a playoff series, 1 or 2 big games can really skew the overall numbers to look like something happened which really didn't over the course of the series.

We often hear the addage that a win's a win...whether it's by 30 or by 2. And in games 3 and 4, were Westbrook's "extra" numbers really contributing to a win, or just the point differential? Consistency in a playoff series is far more important, so the fact that in terms of how many times each PG outplayed the other, Curry doing it 4/7 times is what really matters. And that also speaks to what someone else brought up when they said that Curry only outplayed him a couple of times at most. That's just not the case.

[therealbig3]

In short, I feel like whatever advantages Westbrook holds over Curry for the series as far as numbers go really stems from 2 games in which the Thunder blew them off the court and Westbrook really inflated his stats. It's hard to be as impressed with that as Curry showing up more consistently, in games that were actually in doubt and absolutely NEEDED his performance.

As for Klay going off in game 6...it doesn't take away from Curry's game. He had 31/10/9, strong efficiency, and he was consistently making an impact himself. They're not winning that game without Curry either.