'17-'18 POY discussion

[Prez]

I don't think Kidd is head coach material at all. He’s completely incapable of taking blame for anything, constantly making excuses/blaming others, has next to no patience even with guys he previously supported, plays mind games, isn’t a good communicator, etc. And quite frankly he’s a pretty dumb guy outside of basketball, and occasionally you see that stupidity on court too in stuff like end of game decision making.

This is all on top of massive X’s and O’s problems, which are largely his assistants’ problems as they designed the schemes, but Kidd’s stubbornness is also a big part of why they stuck to them even when there were people within the organization telling him they didn’t work and to make changes.

I feel trying to pinpoint exactly how good any Bucks player is right now is a pretty pointless exercise. Every single player on our roster has been minimized defensively and is put into pretty abysmal situations offensively. It’s pretty frustrating seeing teams like Utah or Miami or Boston utilize limited players brilliantly, while the Bucks are taking career 40% 3PT shooters like Middleton and molding him into a wannabe old Kobe hunting turnaround fadeaways and long 2s. Defensively, having guys double the post (against role players) off shooters one pass away. Constantly out of position overhelping the strong side. Blitzing excessively.

It's amazing to me the Bucks are 7th offensively with the clown show of a half court offense they run. The defense is fittingly ranked about 20th. It's incredibly frustrating thinking what a guy like Giannis could do defensively on a smart team with a cohesive defensive system like BOS/MIA/UTA. I really think he'd be a force of nature even now.

[dontcalltimeout]

Spoiler:

For just 4's and 5's I'd rank them Giannis, Jokic, AD, and then Embiid. I excluded KAT because of Butler but probably shouldn't have. KAT's 1.15 scoring PPP is joke levels good for an inside/out big and second only to Curry for players with 1000 possessions. And somewhat surprisingly his scoring + passing PPP is about equal with Giannis.

Embiid's offense is good, no more or less, and as mentioned his TOV's are serious efficiency leaks. That and his 1900 minutes pretty much preclude him from serious MVP consideration.

While AD is having a great season on both ends his lack of playmaking and creation volume prevents his individual numbers from translating to team efficiency. NOP's offense since Boogie's injury is actually dead last for all non-tanking teams (22nd).

Jokic is the best passer and shooter but lags Giannis in perimeter handling responsibilities, defensively, and overall workload. His impact is pretty great though. Not sure why he's seemingly overlooked.

Giannis has the best blend of defense, individual scoring production, playmaking and creation, overall workload, and impact. When teasing out garbage minutes his impact on both ends is even more pronounced. Too bad Milwaukee has been negligent in finding him anything resembling a respectable P&R/P&P big. When they do lol watch out.

Anyways top 3 I'd have Harden, Lebron, and Giannis

At the risk of belaboring this Embiid vs Giannis and other bigs on offense discussion, especially since I think it’s reasonable to prefer the some of the other guys (I’m very high on Jokic’s offense especially), I disagree with some assessments made using synergy.

I like Giannis a lot and I am excited to see his continued growth but I don't want to jump the gun on how impactful he is just bc he has some eye-popping numbers. Giannis is more limited on offense than top-level numbers indicate because of his limited vision and off-ball value.

Spoiler:

Giannis is a really good player. The way that he’s able to drive and score in the paint against what seems to be incredible odds is awesome to watch. He also might be the most devastating player in transition in the league (it's either him or Russ). And the stats corroborate that transition scoring is by far his best play type.

It’s great that he takes advantage of those scoring opportunities but it also makes it easy to overstate his overall package if you just look at the total numbers. His half court creation numbers are underwhelming when you tease out his finishing.

Giannis’s vision is limited. Even though he does the most ballhandling of the group you mentioned, he’s not that great at creating open looks for his teammates. Defenders sag off Giannis as much as anyone in the league. That lets him get a head of steam going to the basket once he gets the ball, but part of the reason defenses get away with packing the paint is that Giannis gets tunnel vision once he makes a move.

A good playmaker is aware of the way his scoring threat creates openings in the court and i think Giannis has a lot of room for growth. His passes and counters to defensive pressure seem telegraphed and reactive. So even tho he has the ball more substantially more per game than Embiid and Jokic, that doesn’t result in a proportional increase in passes or assists (Embiid has more passes per minute than Giannis, for example).

Off the ball, I'm consistently underwhelmed by Giannis. He’s not very good with movement & he often lets defenders off the hook who like to sag way off him. He’s really good at putbacks when he rushes in after a shot goes up, but that doesn’t make up for how defenses treat him off-ball.

Even if he has more ballhandling than a guy like Jokic, he’s limited as a creator & off-ball threat. I believe his impact on offense is overstated by sheer volume, which might explain why he looks weaker in ORAPM compared to O-RPM. And why the team's ORTG when he's on the court is underwhelming.

I think this synergy table misrepresents some of the things synergy tracks by using points per assist instead of passing offense, and by not separating scoring from passing.

Spoiler:

*per synergy

For the “plus passing” column, you’ve grabbed the PPP generated by each player’s "Poss + Assists". I don’t find this very valuable bc it doesn’t tell you anything more than “assist” does as a stat. It’s already a successful pass. Differences in points per assist by itself doesn't tell you much about a player's playmaking abilities.

It also obscures the differences in each player’s passing since it double counts the scoring PPP which you’ve already showed. For example, Davis’ creation looks stronger than it is relative to the other player’s bc that single number includes his own hyper-efficient finishing.

By showing the combined PPP we lose track of how the players compare in each aspect.

Synergy actually tracks offense created by a player’s passing in playtypes that are associated with creation and not just finishing (isolations, PNRs, and post-ups). This is a much better snapshot of the kind of offense each player is creating since it doens't just track assists but all passes, turnovers, and fouls that the player generates directly. Using this we can see how Giannis compares in half court creation to these other players:



Looking at it this way tells a much clearer story. Embiid, Davis, and Jokic are better at creating their own offense compared to Giannis (and since this is PPP, it inherently takes turnovers into account). Giannis’s offensive creation is buoyed by his passing (he passes most frequently of this group even if his passes generate less PPP than Embiid & Jokic). Davis does not create great results with his passing (as you noted). Jokic’s passing is really dangerous, he picks defenses apart when he posts up. Embiid, even if he's not as prolific of a finisher as Davis and Giannis (in transition or otherwise) is better than either of them when you give him the ball and ask him to make something happen.

This isn't a slam dunk to prefer a certain player over another, but I think it's closer to comparing these players on the same plane. Giannis's finishing and transition scoring do add value to an offense and the minutes he can log are impressive and we can account for that and value it in how we rate these guys. Personally, I would take Jokic as the best offensive player among the big men because his anticipation and vision open up so much for an offense.

[Texas Chuck]

Ah. Well on a narrative level I get characterizing Philly's success that way, we all know that could have easily not worked out. Since it is working out I'm more interested in the people making it work in the years after Hinkie's sacrifice.

Sure I'm more interested in the player than the executive as well. And let me reiterate--I love Embiid and beat the drum loudly that he should have been the 1st overall pick, injury risk and all because if he ever got healthy he was just an entirely different level talent than Wiggins/Parker.

But we never saw a team take tanking to this level before and I think its something we can't lose sight of as we watch what happens with them. Because this is a team that really blew some high picks in Okafor and Noel, jury is out on Fultz and yet they still have 2 potential franchise players, and plenty of other nice rotation pieces/assets. Most teams can't afford to bomb on assets like they did, but because Hinkie was willing to push it that far, we see the current Sixers.

Obviously now it matters how Embiid and Simmons go, but for those of interested in the team-building side of things, this is kinda a big deal.

[Mystical Apples]

Spoiler:

For just 4's and 5's I'd rank them Giannis, Jokic, AD, and then Embiid. I excluded KAT because of Butler but probably shouldn't have. KAT's 1.15 scoring PPP is joke levels good for an inside/out big and second only to Curry for players with 1000 possessions. And somewhat surprisingly his scoring + passing PPP is about equal with Giannis.

Embiid's offense is good, no more or less, and as mentioned his TOV's are serious efficiency leaks. That and his 1900 minutes pretty much preclude him from serious MVP consideration.

While AD is having a great season on both ends his lack of playmaking and creation volume prevents his individual numbers from translating to team efficiency. NOP's offense since Boogie's injury is actually dead last for all non-tanking teams (22nd).

Jokic is the best passer and shooter but lags Giannis in perimeter handling responsibilities, defensively, and overall workload. His impact is pretty great though. Not sure why he's seemingly overlooked.

Giannis has the best blend of defense, individual scoring production, playmaking and creation, overall workload, and impact. When teasing out garbage minutes his impact on both ends is even more pronounced. Too bad Milwaukee has been negligent in finding him anything resembling a respectable P&R/P&P big. When they do lol watch out.

Anyways top 3 I'd have Harden, Lebron, and Giannis

At the risk of belaboring this Embiid vs Giannis and other bigs on offense discussion, especially since I think it’s reasonable to prefer the some of the other guys (I’m very high on Jokic’s offense especially), I disagree with some assessments made using synergy.

I like Giannis a lot and I am excited to see his continued growth but I don't want to jump the gun on how impactful he is just bc he has some eye-popping numbers. Giannis is more limited on offense than top-level numbers indicate because of his limited vision and off-ball value.

Spoiler:

Giannis is a really good player. The way that he’s able to drive and score in the paint against what seems to be incredible odds is awesome to watch. He also might be the most devastating player in transition in the league (it's either him or Russ). And the stats corroborate that transition scoring is by far his best play type.

It’s great that he takes advantage of those scoring opportunities but it also makes it easy to overstate his overall package if you just look at the total numbers. His half court creation numbers are underwhelming when you tease out his finishing.

Giannis’s vision is limited. Even though he does the most ballhandling of the group you mentioned, he’s not that great at creating open looks for his teammates. Defenders sag off Giannis as much as anyone in the league. That lets him get a head of steam going to the basket once he gets the ball, but part of the reason defenses get away with packing the paint is that Giannis gets tunnel vision once he makes a move.

A good playmaker is aware of the way his scoring threat creates openings in the court and i think Giannis has a lot of room for growth. His passes and counters to defensive pressure seem telegraphed and reactive. So even tho he has the ball more substantially more per game than Embiid and Jokic, that doesn’t result in a proportional increase in passes or assists (Embiid has more passes per minute than Giannis, for example).

Off the ball, I'm consistently underwhelmed by Giannis. He’s not very good with movement & he often lets defenders off the hook who like to sag way off him. He’s really good at putbacks when he rushes in after a shot goes up, but that doesn’t make up for how defenses treat him off-ball.

Even if he has more ballhandling than a guy like Jokic, he’s limited as a creator & off-ball threat. I believe his impact on offense is overstated by sheer volume, which might explain why he looks weaker in ORAPM compared to O-RPM. And why the team's ORTG when he's on the court is underwhelming.

I think this synergy table misrepresents some of the things synergy tracks by using points per assist instead of passing offense, and by not separating scoring from passing.

Spoiler:

*per synergy

For the “plus passing” column, you’ve grabbed the PPP generated by each player’s "Poss + Assists". I don’t find this very valuable bc it doesn’t tell you anything more than “assist” does as a stat. It’s already a successful pass. Differences in points per assist by itself doesn't tell you much about a player's playmaking abilities.

It also obscures the differences in each player’s passing since it double counts the scoring PPP which you’ve already showed. For example, Davis’ creation looks stronger than it is relative to the other player’s bc that single number includes his own hyper-efficient finishing.

By showing the combined PPP we lose track of how the players compare in each aspect.

Synergy actually tracks offense created by a player’s passing in playtypes that are associated with creation and not just finishing (isolations, PNRs, and post-ups). This is a much better snapshot of the kind of offense each player is creating since it doens't just track assists but all passes, turnovers, and fouls that the player generates directly. Using this we can see how Giannis compares in half court creation to these other players:



Looking at it this way tells a much clearer story. Embiid, Davis, and Jokic are better at creating their own offense compared to Giannis (and since this is PPP, it inherently takes turnovers into account). Giannis’s offensive creation is buoyed by his passing (he passes most frequently of this group even if his passes generate less PPP than Embiid & Jokic). Davis does not create great results with his passing (as you noted). Jokic’s passing is really dangerous, he picks defenses apart when he posts up. Embiid, even if he's not as prolific of a finisher as Davis and Giannis (in transition or otherwise) is better than either of them when you give him the ball and ask him to make something happen.

This isn't a slam dunk to prefer a certain player over another, but I think it's closer to comparing these players on the same plane. Giannis's finishing and transition scoring do add value to an offense and the minutes he can log are impressive and we can account for that and value it in how we rate these guys. Personally, I would take Jokic as the best offensive player among the big men because his anticipation and vision open up so much for an offense.

It's a little unclear what you're responding to here. Are you disagreeing with my 2018 big man MVP rankings or giving a scouting report of each player's future prospects?

I'd also say check your assumptions about standalone passing PPP in your chart which seems to be the basis of your argument. Not sure I get the rationale of lumping P&R handling and Post Ups together either -- 1 is a backbone of every NBA offense, the other more situational that requires time and can be taken away.

[dontcalltimeout]

It's a little unclear what you're responding to here. Are you disagreeing with my 2018 big man MVP rankings or giving a scouting report of each player's future prospects?

I'd also say check your assumptions about standalone passing PPP in your chart which seems to be the basis of your argument. Not sure I get the rationale of lumping P&R handling and Post Ups together either -- 1 is a backbone of every NBA offense, the other more situational that requires time and can be taken away.

The scounting is not about the future it's about how they play now -- giving a context to the numbers.

What exactly do i need to "check my assumption" on? My point is that using PPP from player's scoring (in all playtypes) combined with points from their assists doesn't accurately reflect how the player's offensive profiles compare because it flattens everything into one number. I even gave the example of how that misrepresents how Davis compares to the other players in terms of passing...

Also, wait, you're criticizing me for lumping PNR handling and post ups together when your table has several numbers lumping everything together? That's weird.

I'm lumping PNR, Post ups, and isolations together because these are the kinds of plays for which Synergy tracks the player's pass-generated offense. I'm actually fine with showing the numbers individually and can post it tomorrow if you want. At the end of the day they're plays in which each player is generating offense, not finishing off a pass by a teammate.

[MisterHibachi]

I'm totally fine with Moreyball being the primary takeaway for the season actually. It's just not the shock to me that Philly is.

My bad. I meant Hinkie. Tho Morey certainly deserves some love too.

Ah. Well on a narrative level I get characterizing Philly's success that way, we all know that could have easily not worked out. Since it is working out I'm more interested in the people making it work in the years after Hinkie's sacrifice.

What are your thoughts on Ben Simmons?

[Mystical Apples]

It's a little unclear what you're responding to here. Are you disagreeing with my 2018 big man MVP rankings or giving a scouting report of each player's future prospects?

I'd also say check your assumptions about standalone passing PPP in your chart which seems to be the basis of your argument. Not sure I get the rationale of lumping P&R handling and Post Ups together either -- 1 is a backbone of every NBA offense, the other more situational that requires time and can be taken away.

The scounting is not about the future it's about how they play now -- giving a context to the numbers.

What exactly do i need to "check my assumption" on? My point is that using PPP from player's scoring (in all playtypes) combined with points from their assists doesn't accurately reflect how the player's offensive profiles compare because it flattens everything into one number. I even gave the example of how that misrepresents how Davis compares to the other players in terms of passing...

Also, wait, you're criticizing me for lumping PNR handling and post ups together when your table has several numbers lumping everything together? That's weird.

I'm lumping PNR, Post ups, and isolations together because these are the kinds of plays for which Synergy tracks the player's pass-generated offense. I'm actually fine with showing the numbers individually and can post it tomorrow if you want. At the end of the day they're plays in which each player is generating offense, not finishing off a pass by a teammate.

Yeah I don't quite get this exchange. I mentioned your assumptions about passing PPP because they were off and lacked anything resembling relative volume. And quite frankly responding in detail to an unsolicited 1000 word post seemed a little daunting. If you want to pursue PM would be easier.

As for your P&R/Iso/Post basket, there's a host of issues in lumping disparate plays together which implies they are analogous and that every player in your chart runs it. They are not analogous...P&R is miles more important and only Giannis runs it as a staple.

With these 4 players + KAT you're better off using Drives. Drives efficiency isn't perfect but unlike P&R there's at least enough information to reasonably compare them.

[dontcalltimeout]

Yeah I don't quite get this exchange. I mentioned your assumptions about passing PPP because they were off and lacked anything resembling relative volume. And quite frankly responding in detail to an unsolicited 1000 word post seemed a little daunting. If you want to pursue PM would be easier.

It's all good. There had been discussion of Giannis vs Embiid on offense previously and I saw your post as making a case for Giannis. I was offering a different perspective on his effectiveness . I'm not pressed if you don't want to get that into it.

[Doctor MJ]

My bad. I meant Hinkie. Tho Morey certainly deserves some love too.

Ah. Well on a narrative level I get characterizing Philly's success that way, we all know that could have easily not worked out. Since it is working out I'm more interested in the people making it work in the years after Hinkie's sacrifice.

What are your thoughts on Ben Simmons?

Best rookie since Duncan? (Maybe Paul?) He's amazing. Love his ability to improvise.

[bondom34]

As disappointing as OKC has been I'm lucky Philly is my local broadcast, I've watched the rebuild over the years and it's so fun seeing it come to fruition. Was a big Hinkie fan and love that team too.

[Dr Spaceman]

Ah. Well on a narrative level I get characterizing Philly's success that way, we all know that could have easily not worked out. Since it is working out I'm more interested in the people making it work in the years after Hinkie's sacrifice.

What are your thoughts on Ben Simmons?

Best rookie since Duncan? (Maybe Paul?) He's amazing. Love his ability to improvise.

My favorite thing about him is how he’s already shown a penchant for being a step ahead of the teams trying to defend him.

He went through a pretty bad mid-December malaise where Joel was missing some time, teams started openly disrespecting his jumper, he looked like the nerves/adrenaline of the early season had worn off. This was when Mitchell started really making a case for the ROY debate.

But since then, Jesus. In the middle of an NBA season he just changed his approach toward sagging defenders and now plays with an aggressiveness that I don’t ever remember seeing from a rookie like this. Most rookies are literally just trying to stay above water.

Just the ability to diagnose what teams are doing to him, on the fly, think of how to counter it, and then actually apply those principles in game is amazing. He’s out there playing chess. LeBron-esque. I hope people truly realize how spectacular his mid season improvement was.

[Dr Spaceman]

Also just a note: Minnesota desperately needs to cut bait on Wiggins this summer. I don’t care if you have to give up an asset to offload him; making the salary he’s getting will absolutely close any championship window they might have. I truly believe that. Karl Towns’ prime will be wasted if they don’t offload Wiggins and promote him in the offense starting yesterday.

[Doctor MJ]

What are your thoughts on Ben Simmons?

Best rookie since Duncan? (Maybe Paul?) He's amazing. Love his ability to improvise.

My favorite thing about him is how he’s already shown a penchant for being a step ahead of the teams trying to defend him.

He went through a pretty bad mid-December malaise where Joel was missing some time, teams started openly disrespecting his jumper, he looked like the nerves/adrenaline of the early season had worn off. This was when Mitchell started really making a case for the ROY debate.

But since then, Jesus. In the middle of an NBA season he just changed his approach toward sagging defenders and now plays with an aggressiveness that I don’t ever remember seeing from a rookie like this. Most rookies are literally just trying to stay above water.

Just the ability to diagnose what teams are doing to him, on the fly, think of how to counter it, and then actually apply those principles in game is amazing. He’s out there playing chess. LeBron-esque. I hope people truly realize how spectacular his mid season improvement was.

Yup. I love smart players and Simmons is whip-smart. This is what the scouts who were high on him were always saying but since I don't watch a lot of college - particularly before March - I wasn't sure what to make of his team's weak performance. Seems at this point it was something of the proverbial case of college basketball just not letting savants be savants any more.

He and Jokic are two of the players I'm most excited about because of this, but I'll say that it's the contrast with those two along with Embiid that has me more worried about Giannis. There was a long wave of people talking about how Giannis "just gets basketball", but at this point it seems pretty clear that that he's not an ultra-high BBIQ guy and Milwaukee has now groomed him into a role where that will hurt him.

Then again, I say the same thing about OKC with Westbrook and I expect to always be in the minority opinion there.

[Doctor MJ]

Also just a note: Minnesota desperately needs to cut bait on Wiggins this summer. I don’t care if you have to give up an asset to offload him; making the salary he’s getting will absolutely close any championship window they might have. I truly believe that. Karl Towns’ prime will be wasted if they don’t offload Wiggins and promote him in the offense starting yesterday.

Boy, Wiggins is just such a classic case already of how hard it is for teams to admit a mistake. He was quite clearly not someone who should be given a max deal when they gave it to him, but not giving him the max meant admitting that KAT was basically the only building block they had which wouldn't have fit with the buzz they were trying to build.

I honestly don't know what Minny should do now. Basically no GM worth anything should trade for him unless they have large contracts of comparable length they are trying to get rid of, and it's hard to imagine Minny would really benefit from another team's leavings.

What's definitely the case though is that Minny simply has to run with KAT as the focal point of the offense. It made sense to hope he could be more of a 2-way guy who could focus his attention where it did the most good, but it just seems pretty clear that KAT doesn't have the head for defense. His strength is in offense, that strength is better than anything else you got, you've got to let him do it and Wiggins needs to be told that that's the direction the team is going and that he'll need to find a niche as a satellite.

[NinjaSheppard]

The Raptors ended up getting a lottery pick for Andrea Bargnani way past the point anyone thought he was an NBA rotation player. Jeff Green got traded for first rounders back to back years.

People will be surprised with what the Wolves can get for high lottery pedigree Wiggins. There are just too many bad teams with desperate GMs who will take a chance on him knowing that if things don't work out they are gone anyways. Someone is going to talk themselves into him being the next Oladipo.

The real question is if Wolves will admit defeat on him and if it is a Thibs decision or an ownership one.

[Doctor MJ]

The Raptors ended up getting a lottery pick for Andrea Bargnani way past the point anyone thought he was an NBA rotation player. Jeff Green got traded for first rounders back to back years.

People will be surprised with what the Wolves can get for high lottery pedigree Wiggins. There are just too many bad teams with desperate GMs who will take a chance on him knowing that if things don't work out they are gone anyways. Someone is going to talk themselves into him being the next Oladipo.

The real question is if Wolves will admit defeat on him and if it is a Thibs decision or an ownership one.

Before Wiggins signed his contract sure. Remember he's getting paid $30 mill per year now. Teams can't just take on that kind of salary. Even if somehow a team was that far under the cap, you wouldn't want to use that up for Wiggins.

But you're right at least that it's within the realm of possibility that a desperate thing will do a desperate thing. I just think it really won't be easy for anyone to do money-wise, and I don't think anyone will do it if it isn't serendipitously easy.

[bondom34]

Ideas come up on the trade board. A few teams w/ bad-ish money may want him on potential he improves, Charlotte has Batum's deal, Orlando has a few. Maybe Atlanta

[Dr Spaceman]

So Butler is back.

And goddamn does he look good. There are few players in the league right now I appreciate watching more than him. If you want to get an idea of why he’s been so transformative for Minnesota, check 2 plays last night:

1. He guards Lopez at the arc after a switch. Pokes the ball away and as Lopez is falling out of bounds to recover and find a guy to pass too Butler leaps toward half-court to jump the passing lane taking away the safety valve pass. There are maybe 2 or 3 players in the whole league that can think on their feet like this.

2. Butler drives into traffic, tosses up a pretty bad floater, but Towns flies in for the tip dunk. Butler spends the entire change of possession period staring down and pumping up Towns. I mean how can you not love playing with a guy like this.

He’s a special player, and even with his missed month I’m considering giving him a top 5 nod if he shows out in the postseason.

[Dr Spaceman]

Ideas come up on the trade board. A few teams w/ bad-ish money may want him on potential he improves, Charlotte has Batum's deal, Orlando has a few. Maybe Atlanta

Lol trading for Wiggins would be the most Charlotte move ever. I could totally see it happening.

[dhsilv2]

Also just a note: Minnesota desperately needs to cut bait on Wiggins this summer. I don’t care if you have to give up an asset to offload him; making the salary he’s getting will absolutely close any championship window they might have. I truly believe that. Karl Towns’ prime will be wasted if they don’t offload Wiggins and promote him in the offense starting yesterday.

Free two first round picks, all you gotta do it take Wiggins?