The Lebron Thread (Pt. 2)

[C0bR]

Wade is not travelling to Cleveland. LeBron is, but calls himself day-to-day. I am giving 40% to him playing.

[mopper8]

Ethan J. Skolnick ‏@EthanJSkolnick 1h
Haslem, Battier and Wade are not making the trip to Cleveland. LeBron and Bosh did, but that doesn't mean they'll play.

Tom Haberstroh ‏@tomhaberstroh 2h
LeBron leaning towards not playing tomorrow vs. CLE. Called himself a "game-time" decision.

[SideshowBob]

Lebron was 16/16 before that technical FT miss. :lol"

Yeah, I don't actually have the numbers, but it feels like he sucks at technicals. I don't get why Bosh isn't the one to shoot them when Allen isn't on the floor.

Weird that Lebron took that jumper when he was 7-7, I thought he was going to try for a perfect game. Hopefully missing a shot will make him a little more aggressive.

http://nbawowy.com/

That's EvanZ's site. It's got tons of useful breakdowns including Free Throws, and even breaks down play types (drives, jumpshots, etc.).

Here's Lebron's FT% breakdown by type, not including today.

And1 - 42/53 (79.2%)
2PA - 343/455 (75.4%)
3PA - 3/3 (100%)
Tech - 6/12 (50%)

So 6/13 on technical free throws after today's game.

[JordansBulls]

What is LeBron's updated PER?

Haven't actually done the calculation yet, but it should go down from 31.67 to like 31.65.

@JB: WS/48 hasn't shifted at all. He's still at .323.

How would you know off hand if his WS/48 shifted but not PER? Is it easier to calculate the WS/PER 48 then it is PER?

[SideshowBob]

What is LeBron's updated PER?

Haven't actually done the calculation yet, but it should go down from 31.67 to like 31.65.

@JB: WS/48 hasn't shifted at all. He's still at .323.

How would you know off hand if his WS/48 shifted but not PER? Is it easier to calculate the WS/PER 48 then it is PER?

To calculate PER I just have to plug the updated data into a spreadsheet.

WS are kept track of and updated by RealGM about an hour after every game.

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/LeBron-James/NBA/250/2013/By_Split/Misc_Stats/Recent_Games/Regular_Season

(19.33 WS / 2876.85 minutes) x 48 minutes = 0.3225 WS/48

[JordansBulls]

To calculate PER I just have to plug the updated data into a spreadsheet.

WS are kept track of and updated by RealGM about an hour after every game.

http://basketball.realgm.com/player/LeBron-James/NBA/250/2013/By_Split/Misc_Stats/Recent_Games/Regular_Season

(19.33 WS / 2876.85 minutes) x 48 minutes = 0.3225 WS/48

Ah gotcha, makes sense was curious on how you knew that soo fast.

[nunemouse]

So Miami has been playing like a 10+ SRS team for the latter half of the season right? Extending from the "replace Lebron with a top center" thread, what elite SG + top center combo were ever that good for such a stretch?

[GSP]

So Miami has been playing like a 10+ SRS team for the latter half of the season right? Extending from the "replace Lebron with a top center" thread, what elite SG + top center combo were ever that good for such a stretch?

Jerry west and wilt chamberlain had a 11.65 srs in 1972 and they had the streak too. I gotta think shaq and kobe did it in the 2001 playoffs didnt they annihilate the spurs by 20 points per game?

[colts18]

Sideshowbob, what is the Heat SRS since the streak started when the big 3 plays? It's probably hovering around 10

[SideshowBob]

Sideshowbob, what is the Heat SRS since the streak started when the big 3 plays? It's probably hovering around 10

27 G

+9.17 SRS, +9.6 offense, -0.7 defense

[GSP]

SideshowBob do you still think by your SRS rating for individual players that Lebron is 3 on defense? Imo he looks more like 7.5 off 2.0 def. Do you have any data for the Heats defense?

[SideshowBob]

SideshowBob do you still think by your SRS rating for individual players that Lebron is 3 on defense? Imo he looks more like 7.5 off 2.0 def. Do you have any data for the Heats defense?

Yup.

Few things I'd say here.

The first is that when I'm putting an SRS figure on a player, I'm trying to gauge ability. What's key here is differentiating between ability and impact. We've seen guys have impact that surpasses or fails to meet what we might think it would actually be (Lebron in his last two seasons in Cleveland looked more like a +10/11 player in terms of impact, but throw him onto 10000 different teams and its more than reasonable to say he'd look considerably weaker than that).

Taking this season as a whole, Lebron, to me, clearly hasn't had the impact of a +10 overall player. RAPM has him at about +7.0, which scaled for pace and team strength makes him look more like a +7.0 SRS player.

However, if we look at the team performance in the second half of the season, he looks like a +8.5-9 offense/+1-1.5 defense SRS player. Miami's offensive performance, especially considering their offensive rebounding, has been insane. Pushing this team into the realm of +10 offense looks like a candidate for the new Offensive GOAT season. HOWEVER, from there its important to note that Miami's been using the small-ball strategy quite a bit, and its not unreasonable to say that this has come at the cost of team defense. Make no mistake, their perimeter defense, strategy-wise, is one of the better ones in the league, they're an able defensive team. But we saw them be an elite team in the previous two seasons and they've clearly regressed this season. If offensive inflation is coming at the dispense of defense, that is to say, Miami's running lineups that are certainly more offensive geared, to the point where the defense isn't as good as it could be, perhaps we should reevaluate the exact quality of the offense, while adjusting our impression of the defense accordingly.

This isn't to say that Miami doesn't have its share of flaws on the defensive end. Just that it might be smart to look at it from a different angle. When we do this, we might want to consider Miami offense a slight bit weaker than the +10 level we've seen them perform at, but might also want to consider that they might be a bit better than the -1.0 defensive team they look like as well. Note that, however, our impression of their overall performance level isn't necessarily changed as much, its just been realigned, and we can do the same for Lebron's impact. He's a bit less offensively geared and a bit more balanced than what the numbers might indicate on the surface (+7-7.5 offense / +2.5-3.0 defense), but the impression we should have of his overall ability to impact is roughly the same.

FWIW, I've had Lebron VERY high on the defensive end since the 08 Olympics (and he's looked considerably strong in +/- studies too; close to +3 in 09 and 10, +2 in 11 and 12, and just under +4 in the 08-11 4-year study). I don't think he's seen dramatic improvements since then (though not to say he hasn't improved), just that he's not really on another level now than he was in 09 or 10 or 11. That's probably why I've ranked him a bit higher in 09 and 10 than most. It's also probably why I see his 2011 season as rather weak, because I probably had his offense rated a bit lower than most for the most part of his career, and I felt there was a considerable dropoff in that season on the offensive end from 09 and 10 in particular, and I felt so largely because of what I've talked about since I made the first Lebron thread.

[SideshowBob]

Sideshowbob, what is the Heat SRS since the streak started when the big 3 plays? It's probably hovering around 10

27 G

+9.17 SRS, +9.6 offense, -0.7 defense

With Lebron since January 12th (43 G)

+10.00 SRS, +9.7 offense, -1.4 defense

With Lebron + Wade since January 12th (38 G)

+9.78 SRS, +10.0 offense, -0.7 defense

[GSP]

SideshowBob do you still think by your SRS rating for individual players that Lebron is 3 on defense? Imo he looks more like 7.5 off 2.0 def. Do you have any data for the Heats defense?

Yup.

Few things I'd say here.

The first is that when I'm putting an SRS figure on a player, I'm trying to gauge ability. What's key here is differentiating between ability and impact. We've seen guys have impact that surpasses or fails to meet what we might think it would actually be (Lebron in his last two seasons in Cleveland looked more like a +10/11 player in terms of impact, but throw him onto 10000 different teams and its more than reasonable to say he'd look considerably weaker than that).

Taking this season as a whole, Lebron, to me, clearly hasn't had the impact of a +10 overall player. RAPM has him at about +7.0, which scaled for pace and team strength makes him look more like a +7.0 SRS player.

However, if we look at the team performance in the second half of the season, he looks like a +8.5-9 offense/+1-1.5 defense SRS player. Miami's offensive performance, especially considering their offensive rebounding, has been insane. Pushing this team into the realm of +10 offense looks like a candidate for the new Offensive GOAT season. HOWEVER, from there its important to note that Miami's been using the small-ball strategy quite a bit, and its not unreasonable to say that this has come at the cost of team defense. Make no mistake, their perimeter defense, strategy-wise, is one of the better ones in the league, they're an able defensive team. But we saw them be an elite team in the previous two seasons and they've clearly regressed this season. If offensive inflation is coming at the dispense of defense, that is to say, Miami's running lineups that are certainly more offensive geared, to the point where the defense isn't as good as it could be, perhaps we should reevaluate the exact quality of the offense, while adjusting our impression of the defense accordingly.

This isn't to say that Miami doesn't have its share of flaws on the defensive end. Just that it might be smart to look at it from a different angle. When we do this, we might want to consider Miami offense a slight bit weaker than the +10 level we've seen them perform at, but might also want to consider that they might be a bit better than the -1.0 defensive team they look like as well. Note that, however, our impression of their overall performance level isn't necessarily changed as much, its just been realigned, and we can do the same for Lebron's impact. He's a bit less offensively geared and a bit more balanced than what the numbers might indicate on the surface (+7-7.5 offense / +2.5-3.0 defense), but the impression we should have of his overall ability to impact is roughly the same.

FWIW, I've had Lebron VERY high on the defensive end since the 08 Olympics (and he's looked considerably strong in +/- studies too; close to +3 in 09 and 10, +2 in 11 and 12, and just under +4 in the 08-11 4-year study). I don't think he's seen dramatic improvements since then (though not to say he hasn't improved), just that he's not really on another level now than he was in 09 or 10 or 11. That's probably why I've ranked him a bit higher in 09 and 10 than most. It's also probably why I see his 2011 season as rather weak, because I probably had his offense rated a bit lower than most for the most part of his career, and I felt there was a considerable dropoff in that season on the offensive end from 09 and 10 in particular, and I felt so largely because of what I've talked about since I made the first Lebron thread.

Thanks for the response very insightful!!!

[SideshowBob]

Thanks for the response very insightful!!!

Haven't seen anything yet, but it doesn't look like Lebron's going to be playing tomorrow. He'll wrap up the season missing the PER record again, but placing high on the WS/48 list. There's always next season.

[toodles23]

Thanks for the response very insightful!!!

Haven't seen anything yet, but it doesn't look like Lebron's going to be playing tomorrow. He'll wrap up the season missing the PER record again, but placing high on the WS/48 list. There's always next season.

I'd play them if I were Spo, just to get some practice time in for them. The big 3 have only played together twice in April, and Wade looked rusty as hell (he always seems to need a bit to get back into rhythm after returning). Seems very unlikely that they'll play though, they have a full playoff practice scheduled before the game.

[mademan]

They can work their way back into form playing the Bucks. Resting them is the right call.

[Mutnt]

*singing r kelly's fly like an eagle in the background*

[C0bR]

Heat should borrow Austin Carr to announce the games in BRADLEY CENTER.

[PCProductions]

Heat should borrow Austin Carr to announce the games in BRADLEY CENTER.

Haha I love that video.

"MAKE EM CRYYYY UNCLE"

"SHOOT IT EL-TRAIN"