RealGM Top 100 List #5

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#661 » by colts18 » Fri Jul 11, 2014 6:50 pm

ardee wrote:I think it's interesting that a good part of Shaq, Duncan and KG's primes overlapped, and it would bear some fruit to have a look at how they compared at the time.

2000
Shaq
KG
Duncan

2001
Shaq
Duncan
KG

2002
Shaq
Duncan
KG

2003
Duncan
KG
Shaq

2004
KG
Duncan
Shaq

2005
Duncan
KG
Shaq

I think 2005 Duncan/KG was pretty close.

In 2005, Shaq finished ahead of both KG and Duncan in MVP voting. He finished ahead of KG in xRAPM, prior informed, NPI RAPM. Did you know that Shaq finished ahead of KG in defensive RAPM in 2005?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#662 » by Notanoob » Fri Jul 11, 2014 6:59 pm

ardee wrote:
Notanoob wrote:
Shaq and Wilt are practically the same player..


Disagree here.

They may be similar athletically but stylistically and how they impact the game... no.

Wilt was much more durable, a better shooter, more consistent on defense, better rebounder, and better at running the offense from the high post ala Walton/KG.

Shaq was better in the low post, arguably better at passing out of double teams, and less durable.

Especially after Wilt got coached by Hannum he was very different from Shaq.

It's perfectly reasonable to have Duncan between Wilt and Shaq, considering both their durability and defensive edge over Shaq.
I know that they're different (remember, I voted for Wilt over Shaq), but think of it in more general terms.

Shaq and Wilt were both high-peak guys who had drama issues and inferior longevity to Duncan. But while people chose Wilt over Duncan because of how excellent he was at his best, and still pretty good he was when not at his best, they seem to be choosing Duncan over Shaq for the opposite reasons they had Wilt over Duncan.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#663 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:02 pm

Runoff vote: Shaq

The run off comparison is very close for me and I don't have a problem either way. Hell, Shaq is my least favorite player because he's so below average as a human being so really I don't mind Duncan winning.

I've had Duncan ahead of
Shaq for many years actually, but what I have to admit is that that was basically assuming Wilt style issues of inconsistent impact. Turns out when we see the +/- data that largely didn't happen. His on court impact was simply massive even on the bad days.

So when the facts change so do my opinions and Shaq is climbing up quite a lot for me now.

This particular comparison remains a debate though because of the clear negative impact he had through off court means. His presence was toxic and there's no disputing that. The question then is how big of a factor that is.

I don't have a confident answer here to be honest, but what I've done is basically put guys in tiers based on peak and longevity first before factoring I toxicity. Magic and Bird have clear longevity issues, and Duncan has clear peak issues (and I have Hakeem in similar boat although technically his absolute peak is not the issue) In these tiers then Shaq tops the guys mentioned.

Obviously I voted for Garnett here and me saying indirectly that I not only pick Garnett but that he's a tier above the Duncans of the world will lose me even more credibility in the eyes of some but oh well. Know that my "tiers" simply mean a decisive edge rather than a massive one.

As to whether that edge should be enough for Shaq to come out on top here it's very debatable. I think though one danger that I've fallen prey to in the past is to look at the actual team success of Shaq vs Duncan as a kind of proof in pudding. Basically it's just clear at this point how extreme Duncan was in where he landed. This isn't simply a good context, it's a context of extreme noteworthimess historically. It is not in any way shape or form what you could expect as typical for Duncan.




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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#664 » by colts18 » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:08 pm

For those of you questioning Shaq's defensive impact, here are some NPI RAPM's comparing Shaq to Garnett:

00: Shaq 1.27 KG 1.15
01: Shaq 0.7 KG 1
02: Shaq 3.4 KG 0.7
03: Shaq 0.7 KG 2.9
04: Shaq 1.8 KG 2.0
05: Shaq 1.4 KG -0.7 (KG was negative on defense this year)
06: Shaq 1.5 KG 2.2

Average: Shaq +1.54, KG +1.32

Shaq was not a defensive liability. Shaq was actually a solid defensive player
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#665 » by ardee » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:09 pm

Doctor MJ wrote: Duncan has clear peak issues



Just something worth addressing... Is Duncan's peak REALLY that out of the comparison here?

Not just with Shaq, but at this level in general.

+15 On/Off in the 2003 regular season on a 60 win team. +23 On/Off in the Playoffs, 25/15/5, amazing defense, HUGE numbers in the CF + Finals (27/17/6 with 4.2 bpg, in one of the slowest eras on one of the slowest teams).

I mean it's not better than 2000 Shaq, I wouldn't argue that, but it's not like he had a BAD peak. It's still top 10 all time, possibly top 6-8.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#666 » by ardee » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:10 pm

colts18 wrote:For those of you questioning Shaq's defensive impact, here are some NPI RAPM's comparing Shaq to Garnett:

00: Shaq 1.27 KG 1.15
01: Shaq 0.7 KG 1
02: Shaq 3.4 KG 0.7
03: Shaq 0.7 KG 2.9
04: Shaq 1.8 KG 2.0
05: Shaq 1.4 KG -0.7 (KG was negative on defense this year)
06: Shaq 1.5 KG 2.2

Average: Shaq +1.54, KG +1.32

Shaq was not a defensive liability. Shaq was actually a solid defensive player


A stat that has a near-peak Kevin Garnett as a negative on defense has some major issues...
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#667 » by MacGill » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:10 pm

ardee wrote:
Notanoob wrote:
Shaq and Wilt are practically the same player..


Disagree here.

They may be similar athletically but stylistically and how they impact the game... no.

Wilt was much more durable, a better shooter, more consistent on defense, better rebounder, and better at running the offense from the high post ala Walton/KG.

Shaq was better in the low post, arguably better at passing out of double teams, and less durable.

Especially after Wilt got coached by Hannum he was very different from Shaq.

It's perfectly reasonable to have Duncan between Wilt and Shaq, considering both their durability and defensive edge over Shaq.


To you it is, sure....but not to what the criticisms of Shaq have been in comparison to Duncan. Wilt's rebounding wouldn't tip the scale here. Look, what you and everyone else aren't being honest in here is that no one has watched hardly any footage of the man.

For all you know, Wilt could have grabbed 10 boards a game without even having to move his feet but you take his stats and paint this picture around what the newspaper clippings want you to believe. *I pray for the day full footage is released btw*. This is the same (only opposite) as O'Neal except while we have footage of him being not in tip top shape and more accessiblity of his off court antic's, you paint the picture that he was much less durable and like this more of his prime career then not.

And why does it sell? Because Shaq stayed in the league well past his prime (his choice anyway) and that's the last fresh memory of him. But if posters would research Shaq in the same fashion as Wilt, instead of just listening to recycled opinion, they would see that like Wilt, being that big had it's advantages and disadvantages.

Duncan was more mobile than Wilt or Shaq and if I need to post the video of Wilt walking/slow jogging up the court I will. However, when at the time, no one writes about the short comings as much, because of the growth of the sport you're hard pressed to find the information you're looking for but lots has been presented.

Whatever hurt Shaq, hurt Wilt and if you don't think the same, then I don't know what to say. Wilt wasn't moving his 320 pound a$$ around the court like a track star and there is video footage of Russell outhustling him down the court on a pure sprint, dunking the ball. SO Wilt doesn't get to have all the size and strength to completely match (or dominate like some think) O'Neal yet have none of the weakneses. Otherwise you wouldn't have the most intelligent posters on this board (which isn't me btw) questioning things. They would provide a Duncan or KG or Hakeem type story, but they don't. This doesn't strike anyone else as strange then?

I prefer to rely less on what if's and speculation and more on what really happened. If you switched Wilt and Shaq's placements in time, I would be questioning Shaq the same way but if you're going to say nothing wrong with Shaq between Wilt and Duncan but are just sooooo convinced he shouldn't be ahead of Wilt with your anti-Shaq reasoning. Then yes, there is a problem. Even moving forward with the fact the you don't even have Shaq 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, ot 9th. You think Kobe had a better career than Shaq, so for all your values on Wilt, which are similar to Shaq, again you'll use the longevity/durability card. Which brings me then back to Wilt who has less longevity than Kobe and the cycle repeats itself.

I even kept an open mind with Wilt and didn't even start formulating arguments until really the run-off but you're lying to yourself if you think that there is such separation here. And it only gets worse when you see who else you hold above Shaq.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#668 » by colts18 » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:12 pm

ardee wrote:
A stat that has a near-peak Kevin Garnett as a negative on defense has some major issues...

Not odd at all. KG's defensive impact in 2005 was much lower. He was probably coasting defensively that year. The Twolves finished 15th in D rating that year and the TWolves defense improved when KG was off the court.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#669 » by HeartBreakKid » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:13 pm

ardee wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote: Duncan has clear peak issues



Just something worth addressing... Is Duncan's peak REALLY that out of the comparison here?

Not just with Shaq, but at this level in general.

+15 On/Off in the 2003 regular season on a 60 win team. +23 On/Off in the Playoffs, 25/15/5, amazing defense, HUGE numbers in the CF + Finals (27/17/6 with 4.2 bpg, in one of the slowest eras on one of the slowest teams).

I mean it's not better than 2000 Shaq, I wouldn't argue that, but it's not like he had a BAD peak. It's still top 10 all time, possibly top 6-8.


And Shaq probably had a top 3 peak of all time, it's a pretty clear difference between the two. No one said that Duncan had a bad peak, but is there really much of an argument that Duncan was better than Shaq when they were at their best?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#670 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:16 pm

Notanoob wrote:
MacGill wrote:Straight up, I am very skeptical on those who are running off Duncan over Shaq yet allowed Wilt in at #4? It's not the voting placement but the reasoning that I am listening to here. Wilt/Shaq have very similar weaknesses and in all honesty, I'm surprised then that Duncan wasn't put in a run-off versus Wilt, if this is how many feel about attitude and longevity. Not to harp on the specific voting (as we all have our favorities) but we have some posters borderline bashing players where supporters are becoming defensive (myself included) looking to have balance restored.

If Duncan's career is good enough to rival with Shaq, which it is btw, and attitude and longevity are now so important, which he beats the other 2 in both, then Wilt's peak while higher, like Shaq's, and lesser years of some higher play, like Shaq, shouldn't have mattered then.

All I am seeing now is some voters picking and choosing who they want where and not being consistent down the board. Because for everything I have read in what our panel is valuing (and it's not all of you btw) Duncan should then have been slotted 4th.

**Again, while the placement doesn't matter, it is what we are trying to objectionally do here. And if we are going to go through all the work of it, we all might as well be as consistent as possible in the ranking system. If peak and attitude weren't as much issues before against better attitude and longevity, then they shouldn't all of a sudden become ones now.***

I just hope the rest of the project doesn't follow this path. Cause guys like Hakem/LBJ/KG deserve a lot of praise for their individual play.
I think that this post bears repeating.

Shaq and Wilt are practically the same player. In terms of how you evaluate them, they both had crazy peaks, both were inconsistent and had drama issues with teammates and management, neither has a longevity advantage over Duncan. I'm confused as to why people put Wilt ahead of Duncan no problem, but now aren't putting Shaq ahead of Duncan.

I think this is the first instance of people subconsciously changing their criteria for voting in this project, which was something some on here were worried about.


While acknowledging some of adders points about stylistic differences I would boil down your words largely in agreement while taking it a step further:




Shaq is basically a Wilt who didn't screw up on court. S no matter what was going on off the court, Shaq kept to his power game, and it always worked. Could he have been even better with more motor in defense? Yes. But it turns out this didn't cause the variance I thought it did.

Meanwhile Wily would sabotage his own impact every which way. He'd decide to stop shooting. He'd decide to only shoot fadeaway a. He'd decide not to pass it to a teammate. He'd decide to fixate in only his man on defense. He'd decide he didn't feel like moving around as much in defense. ROTC etcetera. Real


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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#671 » by ceiling raiser » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:19 pm

ardee wrote:
colts18 wrote:For those of you questioning Shaq's defensive impact, here are some NPI RAPM's comparing Shaq to Garnett:

00: Shaq 1.27 KG 1.15
01: Shaq 0.7 KG 1
02: Shaq 3.4 KG 0.7
03: Shaq 0.7 KG 2.9
04: Shaq 1.8 KG 2.0
05: Shaq 1.4 KG -0.7 (KG was negative on defense this year)
06: Shaq 1.5 KG 2.2

Average: Shaq +1.54, KG +1.32

Shaq was not a defensive liability. Shaq was actually a solid defensive player


A stat that has a near-peak Kevin Garnett as a negative on defense has some major issues...

Just a note, that's not the case with prior informed RAPM, only single season NPI RAPM.
Now that's the difference between first and last place.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#672 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:21 pm

ardee wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote: Duncan has clear peak issues



Just something worth addressing... Is Duncan's peak REALLY that out of the comparison here?

Not just with Shaq, but at this level in general.

+15 On/Off in the 2003 regular season on a 60 win team. +23 On/Off in the Playoffs, 25/15/5, amazing defense, HUGE numbers in the CF + Finals (27/17/6 with 4.2 bpg, in one of the slowest eras on one of the slowest teams).

I mean it's not better than 2000 Shaq, I wouldn't argue that, but it's not like he had a BAD peak. It's still top 10 all time, possibly top 6-8.


I'm not saying his peak wasn't great, or that it precludes him from consideration at spot 5, but clearly in a comparison with Shaq it's not something tipping the comparison in his favor.



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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#673 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:37 pm

colts18 wrote:
ardee wrote:I think it's interesting that a good part of Shaq, Duncan and KG's primes overlapped, and it would bear some fruit to have a look at how they compared at the time.

2000
Shaq
KG
Duncan

2001
Shaq
Duncan
KG

2002
Shaq
Duncan
KG

2003
Duncan
KG
Shaq

2004
KG
Duncan
Shaq

2005
Duncan
KG
Shaq

I think 2005 Duncan/KG was pretty close.

In 2005, Shaq finished ahead of both KG and Duncan in MVP voting. He finished ahead of KG in xRAPM, prior informed, NPI RAPM. Did you know that Shaq finished ahead of KG in defensive RAPM in 2005?

still Duncan was clearly better, unless you're ready to give Duncan 2002 when he was MVP. 2005 Shaq was really overrated.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#674 » by colts18 » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:41 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:still Duncan was clearly better, unless you're ready to give Duncan 2002 when he was MVP. 2005 Shaq was really overrated.

Duncan was better in 2005 but it wasn't a huge gap. For one Shaq had the RS advantage because he played more games (First time you could ever write that sentence for Shaq :lol: ). Here is how they did in their series vs Detroit:

Shaq: 21-8-2, 59 FG% .578 TS%
Duncan: 21-14-2, 42 FG%, .471 TS%

Pretty close.

Overall I would take Duncan that year but the gap wasn't big at all.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#675 » by MacGill » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:42 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:still Duncan was clearly better, unless you're ready to give Duncan 2002 when he was MVP. 2005 Shaq was really overrated.


If there isn't any hype about a player then how do statements like this ever get created?

If Shaq wasn't still a good player, why would there be a need to diminish his ability in that year in the first place?

With that said, how was he overrated?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#676 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:47 pm

MacGill wrote:
Ryoga Hibiki wrote:still Duncan was clearly better, unless you're ready to give Duncan 2002 when he was MVP. 2005 Shaq was really overrated.


If there isn't any hype about a player then how do statements like this ever get created?

If Shaq wasn't still a good player, why would there be a need to diminish his ability in that year in the first place?

With that said, how was he overrated?


Calling someone overrated depends on how was the consensus at the time around him.
As colt18 was bringing up Shaq's 2nd place in MVP voting that's what I was referring to. At the time he was getting most of the credit for the Heat turnaround and Wade's breakout, that's how he got those votes.
Playoffs and future seasons clearly proved it was not the case, that's why I don't see how you can put that version of Shaq ahead of Timmeh.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#677 » by MacGill » Fri Jul 11, 2014 7:50 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:
MacGill wrote:
Ryoga Hibiki wrote:still Duncan was clearly better, unless you're ready to give Duncan 2002 when he was MVP. 2005 Shaq was really overrated.


If there isn't any hype about a player then how do statements like this ever get created?

If Shaq wasn't still a good player, why would there be a need to diminish his ability in that year in the first place?

With that said, how was he overrated?


Calling someone overrated depends on how was the consensus at the time around him.As colt18 was bringing up Shaq's 2nd place in MVP voting that's what I was referring to. At the time he was getting most of the credit for the Heat turnaround and Wade's breakout, that's how he got those votes.
Playoffs and future seasons clearly proved it was not the case, that's why I don't see how you can put that version of Shaq ahead of Timmeh.


No, it's how they actually played, not what others thought of him, which is why again I asked. I don't care of what people thought of him in comparison to a better player during that time. However, when you're going to throw out a word overrated and then tie it into perception, that seems strange to me. Normally, it means, given how well a player performed, you don't believe his impact to be as great. But in actuality.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#678 » by Ryoga Hibiki » Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:00 pm

MacGill wrote:No, it's how they actually played, not what others thought of him, which is why again I asked. I don't care of what people thought of him in comparison to a better player during that time. However, when you're going to throw out a word overrated and then tie it into perception, that seems strange to me. Normally, it means, given how well a player performed, you don't believe his impact to be as great. But in actuality.

No, actually overrated is someone who (you believe) is rated over what's his actual value, so it inherently depends on the majority opinion on such player.
Unless I've been using this verb wrong my whole life, might very well be...
In such case, I'll rephrase my statement as "Shaq was really rated by most people over his actual value".
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#679 » by trex_8063 » Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:01 pm

MacGill wrote:
Duncan was more mobile than Wilt or Shaq and if I need to post the video of Wilt walking/slow jogging up the court I will.


Hmm....
(view at 3:06; I also like the block at 5:42)
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zukRbA3y0qo#t=186[/youtube]

Also this: http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read. ... ad=5124581

That someone walks or slow-jogs doesn't mean they're incapable of doing otherwise, fwiw.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #5 -- Runoff Shaq v. Duncan 

Post#680 » by MacGill » Fri Jul 11, 2014 8:03 pm

Ryoga Hibiki wrote:
MacGill wrote:No, it's how they actually played, not what others thought of him, which is why again I asked. I don't care of what people thought of him in comparison to a better player during that time. However, when you're going to throw out a word overrated and then tie it into perception, that seems strange to me. Normally, it means, given how well a player performed, you don't believe his impact to be as great. But in actuality.

No, actually overrated is someone who (you believe) is rated over what's his actual value, so it inherently depends on the majority opinion on such player.
Unless I've been using this verb wrong my whole life, might very well be...
In such case, I'll rephrase my statement as "Shaq was really rated by most people over his actual value".


Ok, so then tell me my good man, how do you determine who you believe is rated over their actual value? Isn't it by how that player actually played? Because if you think he was, and someone else disagrees, how do we determine who was right?

So let me ask you this. In your opinion, not those of others or whatever you deemed the perception. How was Shaq overrated on the basketball court duing his 2005 season?
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