2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[parsnips33]

I'm just gonna say Boston can still win this series for sure. Game 6 at home, and they've won big games on the road all playoffs

Just need to even out the jinx energy with everybody acting like Celtics already lost the series

[frica]

There's simply more variance to shooting than there is to playmaking/rebounding/defensive positioning.

I think an interesting topic of debate would be how we factor in the inherent variance in shot making from teammates of someone who creates plays for others. Because the variance still exists, it's just usually not attributed to the playmaker.

Just as one player can go 12 for 20 in one game and 6 for 20 in the next on the exact same shots, teammates can go 12 for 20 in one game and 6 for 20 in the next on the exact same shots created by one player. But in the former example, the one held responsible is usually the scorer, whereas in the latter the ones held responsible are usually teammates (i.e. scorers).

So from a philosophical point of view: if we fixate on outcome (and leave process aside), does a ‘scorer’ really have a lot more variance than a ‘playmaker’? Or is it rather our way of interpreting the results that leads us to that conclusion, and we may want to consider that primary playmakers also take some responsibility for variance in the shooting of teammates who they rely on?

To be fair, the flip side is that as responsibility tends to be placed onto the scorer, so does the praise. That is obviously also something to keep in mind when we talk about variance and responsibility.

edit: This may be a confusing read as I typed while I was thinking. I suppose the simplified point is that if we can say ‘if a scorer scores efficiently he has a lot of impact, and if he scores inefficiently he doesn't’ shouldn't we be able to say the same about a playmaker depending on the efficiency of teammates? Again, that is if we focus on outcome rather than process.

So if Curry shooting poorly equals him having no or negative impact, then teammates shooting poorly off passes made by [insert pass-first PG] should equal him having no or negative impact.

I think playmaking has less variance because the strongest playmakers are great at creating easy shots near the rim, which is inherently less variable.

If one's playmaking is primarily about finding the open 3pt shooter, sure there's a lot of variance in that.
But somebody like Jokic who looks to create open shots at the rim, nah.

[falcolombardi]

a question for everyone here about their Player of the year evaluations

is there anythingh curry or tatum can do the next 2 games (assuming a game 7) to change how you evaluate their year and postseason?

like imagine curry struggles mightly the next 2 games and warriors lose, does your evaluation of him change?

what if he struggles the next 2 games but warriors still win?

what if win or lose tatum goes peak lebron/jordan/bird the next 2 games? would that change your evaluation of his season significatively?

i am just curious cause we have seen cases where 3 ganes completely change the story of a player seasom for good or bad

would there be a way for someone here with curry as their playrr of the season to drop him of that spot if he struggles the next two games?, would someone bring tatum higher for two great games?

[Texas Chuck]

I have Curry locked in at 3. He can't go up or down barring something crazy. Tatum I guess could maybe play himself into 5, but it would take something absolutely heroic and the title and I'm still not sold he makes it for me.

But while I think many on this board are guilty of prisoner of the moment--as least based on opinions were changing night to night through the playoffs on so many player, I know for a fact I'm too extreme in the other direction. I probably don't put enough weight into the most important games of the year.

[HeartBreakKid]

I dont think Curry was all that great this year still. I think he was a much better player last year.

I don't care much for how deep they go in the post season, players do not rise on my rankings because of it (not the sole reason at least). No, Curry has close to no chance at moving up for the last 2 games - and he would struggle to make my ballot. Tatum is not making my ballot 100%.

[ardee]

I dont think Curry was all that great this year still. I think he was a much better player last year.

I don't care much for how deep they go in the post season, players do not rise on my rankings because of it (not the sole reason at least). No, Curry has close to no chance at moving up for the last 2 games - and he would struggle to make my ballot. Tatum is not making my ballot 100%.

Do you think 2023 Steph will be closer to his 2021 level or this year?

[Jaivl]

a question for everyone here about their Player of the year evaluations

is there anythingh curry or tatum can do the next 2 games (assuming a game 7) to change how you evaluate their year and postseason?

like imagine curry struggles mightly the next 2 games and warriors lose, does your evaluation of him change?

what if he struggles the next 2 games but warriors still win?

what if win or lose tatum goes peak lebron/jordan/bird the next 2 games? would that change your evaluation of his season significatively?

i am just curious cause we have seen cases where 3 ganes completely change the story of a player seasom for good or bad

would there be a way for someone here with curry as their playrr of the season to drop him of that spot if he struggles the next two games?, would someone bring tatum higher for two great games?

I have Curry locked at #3 since they got to the Finals. Tatum could clinch #5 with a great performance, but I'm probably leaning Butler for now.

[Gooner]

I dont think Curry was all that great this year still. I think he was a much better player last year.

I don't care much for how deep they go in the post season, players do not rise on my rankings because of it (not the sole reason at least). No, Curry has close to no chance at moving up for the last 2 games - and he would struggle to make my ballot. Tatum is not making my ballot 100%.

That tells me that you are looking too much at the numbers, like most fans. Last season Curry was putting up huge numbers on a average team. This year, he is leading a great team and now they are one win away from the championship. His numbers in the regular season were not as great because the production was more spread out. Players always put their best numbers on bad or average teams.

[TheGOATRises007]

I dont think Curry was all that great this year still. I think he was a much better player last year.

I don't care much for how deep they go in the post season, players do not rise on my rankings because of it (not the sole reason at least). No, Curry has close to no chance at moving up for the last 2 games - and he would struggle to make my ballot. Tatum is not making my ballot 100%.

That tells me that you are looking too much at the numbers, like most fans. Last season Curry was putting up huge numbers on a average team. This year, he is leading a great team and now they are one win away from the championship. His numbers in the regular season were not as great because the production was more spread out. Players always put their best numbers on bad or average teams.

Curry put up his best numbers objectively on the 73 win Warriors though. That's not an average team.

[HeartBreakKid]

I dont think Curry was all that great this year still. I think he was a much better player last year.

I don't care much for how deep they go in the post season, players do not rise on my rankings because of it (not the sole reason at least). No, Curry has close to no chance at moving up for the last 2 games - and he would struggle to make my ballot. Tatum is not making my ballot 100%.

That tells me that you are looking too much at the numbers, like most fans. Last season Curry was putting up huge numbers on a average team. This year, he is leading a great team and now they are one win away from the championship. His numbers in the regular season were not as great because the production was more spread out. Players always put their best numbers on bad or average teams.

No, his team got better because his teammates got better. Why owould he be better at 33 than 32?

you think if a superstar gets eliminated in round 1 and the next year he went to round 3 he must have improved - as if there are no other factors to consider.

Steph Curry is starting to decline, it's as simple as that. His numbers are not "spread out" because his team is better, his numbers are just worse because he misses more. What does improvements from Poole or the return of Thompson have to do with him missing shots?

[HeartBreakKid]

I dont think Curry was all that great this year still. I think he was a much better player last year.

I don't care much for how deep they go in the post season, players do not rise on my rankings because of it (not the sole reason at least). No, Curry has close to no chance at moving up for the last 2 games - and he would struggle to make my ballot. Tatum is not making my ballot 100%.

Do you think 2023 Steph will be closer to his 2021 level or this year?

No, I think 2021 was a really special year for him. I think it's reasonable he'll still be MVP level for a few years, but I don't see him improving significantly.

Late 20s and early 30s are typically a players peak years. I don't think it's a coincidence that his scoring is much worse when he turned 33.

[Gooner]

I dont think Curry was all that great this year still. I think he was a much better player last year.

I don't care much for how deep they go in the post season, players do not rise on my rankings because of it (not the sole reason at least). No, Curry has close to no chance at moving up for the last 2 games - and he would struggle to make my ballot. Tatum is not making my ballot 100%.

That tells me that you are looking too much at the numbers, like most fans. Last season Curry was putting up huge numbers on a average team. This year, he is leading a great team and now they are one win away from the championship. His numbers in the regular season were not as great because the production was more spread out. Players always put their best numbers on bad or average teams.

No, his team got better because his teammates got better. Why owould he be better at 33 than 32?

you think if a superstar gets eliminated in round 1 and the next year he went to round 3 he must have improved - as if there are no other factors to consider.

Steph Curry is starting to decline, it's as simple as that. His numbers are not "spread out" because his team is better, his numbers are just worse because he misses more. What does improvements from Poole or the return of Thompson have to do with him missing shots?

I'm not saying he is better, but he is still the same player. I don't see any decline in his play. Numbers are just numbers. There are many things that can influence that, like coverages that player faces throughout the game. Nobody draws more attention than Curry, and nobody benefits from that more than his teammates.

When it comes to team improvement, there are other factors to consider, but Curry is still the main factor. They go as far as he takes them. It's just odd to proclaim Curry's decline in a season where he leads his team to the finals and possibly the title, while praising him for his success in a season where he missed the playoffs a year before. Winning matters more than stats, and that's how I judge player's impact. Nobody is more impactful than Curry in today's game.

[Gooner]

I dont think Curry was all that great this year still. I think he was a much better player last year.

I don't care much for how deep they go in the post season, players do not rise on my rankings because of it (not the sole reason at least). No, Curry has close to no chance at moving up for the last 2 games - and he would struggle to make my ballot. Tatum is not making my ballot 100%.

That tells me that you are looking too much at the numbers, like most fans. Last season Curry was putting up huge numbers on a average team. This year, he is leading a great team and now they are one win away from the championship. His numbers in the regular season were not as great because the production was more spread out. Players always put their best numbers on bad or average teams.

Curry put up his best numbers objectively on the 73 win Warriors though. That's not an average team.

Curry did, but most players had their best scoring seasons on worse teams. Jordan, Kobe, LeBron, Harden, Beal, Lillard, Trae...Curry is guarded differently today than he was in 2015-2016. They are trying to get him off his spots as much as possible.

[dontcalltimeout]

a question for everyone here about their Player of the year evaluations

is there anythingh curry or tatum can do the next 2 games (assuming a game 7) to change how you evaluate their year and postseason?

like imagine curry struggles mightly the next 2 games and warriors lose, does your evaluation of him change?

what if he struggles the next 2 games but warriors still win?

what if win or lose tatum goes peak lebron/jordan/bird the next 2 games? would that change your evaluation of his season significatively?

i am just curious cause we have seen cases where 3 ganes completely change the story of a player seasom for good or bad

would there be a way for someone here with curry as their playrr of the season to drop him of that spot if he struggles the next two games?, would someone bring tatum higher for two great games?

I would put it at "extremely unlikely." I think, in general, two games should never sway that much. UNLESS something drastic changes in strategy that sees Boston "figure out" Golden State in some form or fashion, with Tatum at the center of it.

Curry has already proven enough for me in these playoffs that he still elevates a supporting cast into a championship contender with his unique skills and style of play.

[falcolombardi]

I dont think Curry was all that great this year still. I think he was a much better player last year.

I don't care much for how deep they go in the post season, players do not rise on my rankings because of it (not the sole reason at least). No, Curry has close to no chance at moving up for the last 2 games - and he would struggle to make my ballot. Tatum is not making my ballot 100%.

That tells me that you are looking too much at the numbers, like most fans. Last season Curry was putting up huge numbers on a average team. This year, he is leading a great team and now they are one win away from the championship. His numbers in the regular season were not as great because the production was more spread out. Players always put their best numbers on bad or average teams.

i think your logic here is too much "more team succes = better player"

do you, in all honesty, thinl curry improved so much to takr the warriors from 8 seed to probable champions even though all his statistics went down?

[Doctor MJ]

a question for everyone here about their Player of the year evaluations

is there anythingh curry or tatum can do the next 2 games (assuming a game 7) to change how you evaluate their year and postseason?

like imagine curry struggles mightly the next 2 games and warriors lose, does your evaluation of him change?

what if he struggles the next 2 games but warriors still win?

what if win or lose tatum goes peak lebron/jordan/bird the next 2 games? would that change your evaluation of his season significatively?

i am just curious cause we have seen cases where 3 ganes completely change the story of a player seasom for good or bad

would there be a way for someone here with curry as their playrr of the season to drop him of that spot if he struggles the next two games?, would someone bring tatum higher for two great games?

Yes I think to all the questions.

[parsnips33]

Numbers up or down - do people not think that Curry is by far the best player on a team that is very close to potentially winning a championship maybe (I refuse to jinx this team )

[falcolombardi]

Numbers up or down - do people not think that Curry is by far the best player on a team that is very close to potentially winning a championship maybe (I refuse to jinx this team )

i know, the idea of curey evaluation being lower by adding 2 bad games to his season spunds silly in a vacuum....

but that is exactly what often happens in practice

bad play in key playoffs games sometimes colors a player whole season in a negative light eveb if the rest of the series and whole season was great

[parsnips33]

Numbers up or down - do people not think that Curry is by far the best player on a team that is very close to potentially winning a championship maybe (I refuse to jinx this team )

i know, the idea of curey evaluation being lower by adding 2 bad games to his season spunds silly in a vacuum....

but that is exactly what often happens in practice

bad play in key playoffs games sometimes colors a player whole season in a negative light eveb if the rest of the series and whole season was great

Oh absolutely, I think Steph's game 2 against Cleveland in 2015 basically laid the groundwork for the "Steph can't do it on a big stage" argument even though he was pretty great rest of the series

[Texas Chuck]

Numbers up or down - do people not think that Curry is by far the best player on a team that is very close to potentially winning a championship maybe (I refuse to jinx this team )

I don't see any argument against this. I've been a huge Draymond Green Truther, but its been clear this is no longer 1A 1B or even Batman/Robin depending on how one sees Draymond at his best. This is Curry as the clear solo star this go around. And its wild to me this team is 4 quarters from a championship. Curry is that dude.