2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[ardee]

Very well deserved for Steph. Bit of an up and down season but him, Klay and Draymond redeemed the painful way in which 2019 ended.

I imagine this group probably still has 1-2 years of contention left.

[The-Power]

What the heck do you mean? Teams have found a way to stop them which is why they're not threatening.

You guys know that when a team wins a basketball game it isn't just because their offense is unstoppable, right? They haven't been all that great in the playoffs at all on offense, and how on earth are they ranked 17th overall in offense but 1st in defense?

So, I think we need to clarify some things about the Warriors offense in the playoffs. I won't be debating terms such as ‘threatening’ because that's subjective, but let's at least inject some numbers into the debate.

The Warriors overall ORTG was 114.5. This is the 4th best ORTG in the playoffs; 2nd among teams with more than one series; and 1st among teams with three or four series. That would also have been the 3rd best ORTG in the RS behind only Utah and Atlanta. I don't find the arithmetic mean on nba.com but the 15th ranked offense had a 112.1 ORTG, so this is a +2.4 offense compared to RS offenses. 112.1 happened to be the Warriors ORTG, so they had essentially a dead-average offense during the RS.

Obviously, the Warriors don't have an average SOS in the playoffs and they faced tougher defenses. So let's break it down by series and see how the Warriors offense fared.

Vs. Denver:
121.9 ORTG
+10.5 rORTG based on Denver's RS DRTG

Vs. Memphis:
108.3 ORTG
-0.6 rORTG based on Memphis' RS DRTG
+2.5 offense compared to Minnesota's PS ORTG vs. Memphis

Vs. Dallas
120.3 ORTG
+11.2 rORTG based on Dallas' RS DRTG
+8.0 offense compared to Phoenix' PS ORTG vs. Dallas
+11.9 offense compared to Utah's PS ORTG vs. Dallas

Vs. Boston
110.0 ORTG
+3.8 rORTG based on Boston's RS DRTG
-5.0 offense compared to Brooklyn's PS ORTG vs. Boston
+9.9 offense compared to Miami's PS ORTG vs. Boston
+15.3 offense compared to Milwaukee's PS ORTG vs. Boston

––– So once we factor in defensive ability of the opponent, we have seen the Warriors offense be absolutely elite in two series, good in one series, and roughly average in another. And this is compared to the opponents' DRTGs in the RS, where effort and preparation time are clearly levels down compared to the PS, for which lower ORTGs are to be expected.

––– Factoring in also the other teams that have played their opponents in the playoffs, we see the Warriors having higher comparative ORTGs in 5 out of 6 cases (Brooklyn versus Boston being the only exception) and in most cases dramatically so. So relative to the competition, the Warriors offense was indeed highly effective.

––– I haven't crunched the numbers but all teams used for comparison had higher ranked offenses than the Warriors during the RS (Utah +4.1, Milwaukee +2.2, Phoenix +2.1, Minnesota +1.7, Brooklyn +1.1, Miami +0.9). So the Warriors offense really stepped up. But this only as an aside, as I don't think the Warriors should get a boost from having a mediocre ORTG during the RS.

So I really don't see how the Warriors offense can be categorized as ‘not having been great in the PS’. They absolutely were great on offense all things considered. I'm also sure all of their opponents looked at that offense and considered it threatening, but that's obviously a subjective feeling and I won't debate it.

The Warriors won with both offense and defense. To me that's pretty obvious. Looking at the personnel and where they have been during the RS, I am certainly more surprised by how successful the Warriors offense has been throughout this run. To me, it's a testament to the greater resilience the core group and Kerr have been able to achieve compared to earlier days of the dynasty.

[Doctor MJ]

To note, I don't rate the Warriors offense this season particularly highly historically but below average to good depending on the night to me sells them short and especially given very specifically referring to the playoffs with that statement. They had two average offensive series against strong defenses in Memphis/Boston and tore Denver/Dallas up (arguably the two most impressive offensive series of the playoffs by any team). The Dallas series in particular was the best offensive series of the post season by some margin imo.

Okay, so let me share my analysis here. I think arguably the key thing to focus on is the apples-to-apples comparison between others who played the same opponents. Where I can find teams that always (or almost always) did better than everyone else in the same situation, I find it very difficult not to be impressed.

So, on offense:

vs Grizz:
Minny - 107.3
GS - 109.8

vs Mavs:
Utah - 109.3
Phoenix - 113.4
GS - 123.9

vs Celtics
Brooklyn - 117.1
Bucks - 101.7
Miami - 106.6
GS - 110.8

So right from the jump, GS basically outperforms everybody except for the Nets, but then 2 things to consider:

1. The Nets got to play the Celtics without Robert Williams. By my bkref-based math, the Warriors had a 118.5 ORtg whenever Timelord was on the bench, which is higher than the Nets got.

2. I always say you have to be careful touting good things from a team that doesn't really win games in a series. As a coach, if my approach in Game 1 led to huge offensive numbers from both teams, but my team won, then I may not be incentivized to experiment and try to find something that might work better.

So all this to say, I look at the Warrior offensive performance, and I see something with a strong case for "best offense in the playoffs".

What if we do the same with a Celtics' perspective?

vs Bucks
Chicago - 95.3
Boston - 109.8

vs Heat
Atlanta - 102.7
Philly - 105.7
Boston - 112.3

vs GS
Denver - 114.7
Memphis - 109.2
Dallas - 114.6
Boston - 106.6

The lens I've presented essentially makes the case for the Celtics being the most impressive offense in the Eastern Conference playoffs...but not in the same league as basically anyone GS played in the West. Feel free to drill down into more depth folks as that's only first pass logic there, but seems about right to me.

I'll also say that I think there's a good chance that I'll have one representative from each of the 3 stand out offenses here - GS, Denver, Dallas - on my OPOY ballot.

What if we do the same thing with defense?

vs Grizz
Minny - 112.7
GS - 109.2

vs Mavs
Utah - 115.6
Phoenix - 116.8
GS - 114.6

vs Boston
Brooklyn - 121.9
Bucks - 109.8
Miami - 112.3
GS - 106.6

So, GS has the edge in every playoff series there, and thus a case for being the best defensive team in the playoffs too, with Memphis actually appearing to be the best defense GS faced (though it's close, and I do think the Warriors just played better in the Finals than they did in the WCSF).

Now as I say all of this: Successful defense tends to help your offense and vice versa. You can argue that GS being so successful on both sides of the ball makes both their offense & defense look a bit better than they actually were...

but this is always a thing to consider. The fact remains that it's not every year where you see a team that ends up looking like both the best offensive and best defensive team each of their playoff opponents faced, and when you do, I'd say, you're talking about a team that was the clear cut best team in the league (at least with the players available during the playoffs).

[eminence]

.

Came to pretty similar conclusions myself - GS has a decent argument as both the strongest offense and defense in the playoffs, though not an overwhelming argument in either case imo. For best team overall, it did wind up being pretty clear cut.

How to weight that against their RS is certainly up for debate and there's no real right answer. They did have some pretty clear injury issues (Steph/Dray/Klay) holding them back at various points of the RS.

[The-Power]

.

.

Since it seems to fit the discussion you two just had, I'm curious to read your thoughts on where this Warriors team ranks among title teams of the last 10-15 years.

[Colbinii]

.

.

Since it seems to fit the discussion you two just had, I'm curious to read your thoughts on where this Warriors team ranks among title teams of the last 10-15 years.

I would have them behind 2020 Lakers, 2019 Raptors, 2018 Houston, 2018 Warriors, 2017 Warriors, 2017 Cavaliers, 2016 Warriors, 2016 Cavaliers, 2016 Thunder, 2015 Warriors, 2015 Cavaliers [healthy], 2014 Spurs, 2013 Heat, 2013 Spurs

[Doctor MJ]

.

.

Since it seems to fit the discussion you two just had, I'm curious to read your thoughts on where this Warriors team ranks among title teams of the last 10-15 years.

Well, let me look at it first from this perspective:

3's made per game in the playoffs:

2022 GSW: 14.0
2021 MIL: 11.2
2020 LAL: 12.1
2019 TOR: 11.9
2018 GSW: 11.2
2017 GSW: 12.7
2016 CLE: 12.3
2015: GSW 11.4
2014: SAS: 8.8
2013: MIA: 7.7
2012: MIA: 6.8
2011: DAL: 8.8
2010: LAL: 6.8
2009: LAL: 7.0
2008: BOS: 6.0

While it certainly makes sense to ask which team dominated their competition more than these Warriors, I'll just say flat out:

There's no reason at all to think that pre-2015 teams could compete with the teams that came afterward because their strategies were just obsolete compared to what now dominates basketball. It really is just that simple. If they were going to beat a team that came after 2014, it would require them to shift their strategy to something smarter - and while they may be able to do it ('04-05 Suns come to mind, whose 8.6 per game allowed them to be beat by old strategy), we shouldn't undersell the fact that we're talking about these teams having to be better than they were in order to win a championship in modern 21st century basketball (aka, Warrior Dynasty Era).

I think I'll stop there because what I've wrote is pretty inflammatory.

[AdagioPace]

Judging by those numbers (almost 9 per game), I can see 2011 Mavs and 2014 Spurs upping their 3s if they had to go vs 2022 Warriors. They have the right personnel.

[jals]

.

Since it seems to fit the discussion you two just had, I'm curious to read your thoughts on where this Warriors team ranks among title teams of the last 10-15 years.

I would have them behind 2020 Lakers, 2019 Raptors, 2018 Houston, 2018 Warriors, 2017 Warriors, 2017 Cavaliers, 2016 Warriors, 2016 Cavaliers, 2016 Thunder, 2015 Warriors, 2015 Cavaliers [healthy], 2014 Spurs, 2013 Heat, 2013 Spurs

Looking at it purely from a matchup standpoint (rather than overall goodness) vs. the title teams, I think this 22 Warriors playoffs team would be favored against the 2019 Raptors and 2021 Bucks and it would've been coin-flips vs. the 2016 Cavs and perhaps 2015 Warriors. Pre 2015 era teams are harder to analyze given how much the dominant strategies in the NBA have shifted since the Warriors ascension in 2015.

My rationale:
2021 Bucks - this 22 Warriors team played surprisingly stout interior / team defense which would have hurt Giannis' efficiency (see how he performed against a similar defense in Boston this year) while I see the 22 Warriors playoffs offense being higher quality than the 21 Suns largely driven by the Warriors having that transcendent scorer that the 21 Suns lacked. This is a close matchup but I see it as 60/40 22 Warriors

2019 Raptors - frankly the 19 Warriors sans KD had a chance to win until Klay went down. In 22, you have Klay back (albeit not at full strength), Curry is likely even better/more robust with his added strength and defense, and you have Poole/Wiggins in the mix. Wiggins in particular would have been very helpful against Kawhi, who once Klay was gone the Warriors simply did not have anyone to match him 1:1 outside Draymond. 22 Warriors would've been able to throw Wiggins, Klay, Draymond, and GP2 against him. The 22 playoff Warriors were clearly stronger than the 19 Warriors sans KD/Klay on both offense and defense. This is 65/35 Warriors in my mind

2016 Cavs - given how close this series was I'll look at 22 playoff Warriors vs. 16 NBA finals Warriors for an easier comparison. While the 16 Warriors over the course of the season were clearly better, if you look at the state of the 16 Warriors in the finals they had lost Bogut, Green missed a game, and Curry clearly wasn't at full strength. 22 Warriors advantages vs. 16: Wiggins substituting for Barnes (big upgrade on defense / overall athleticism), Poole/GP2 for Barbosa/Livingston (more explosive bench scoring and defense upgrade), upgraded Looney, and 22 playoffs Curry vs. not full-strength 2016 playoffs Curry. 16 NBA Finals Warriors advantages vs. 22: Klay full strength, Green at peak vs. somewhat diminished/aged. It's very close - the 2022 Warriors feel more robust to me mainly because they have more scoring options and Curry himself has a more robust offensive game as he's really gotten much better at penetration/finishing inside plus his individual defense on Kyrie would be stronger in 22. Lebron would be a problem but he was for the 16 Warriors as well, and I don't see Wiggins as a matchup downgrade from Barnes/16 Iguodala (who was much worse than in 2015). I view this as a toss-up.

2015 Warriors - really the same analysis as above, with the added view that the 22 Warriors in particular are significantly more experienced than the 2015 edition who did not deal well initially with the physicality of the Cavs. The 22 Warriors are a much more physical team than the 2015 edition driven purely by experience. The 2015 Warriors are a better offensive team when flowing but less robust than the 22 playoff edition. Both teams play great defense (this was peak Draymond in 2015). If you put a gun to my head, I think I'd favor the 22 Warriors on grit alone. 22 Curry is a more robust player than 15 Curry due to strength/better finishing inside/more used to the whacky types of defense people have thrown at him for 7 years now since his explosion into the NBA's top echelon in 2015. I think the 22 playoff Warriors would have taken down 15 NBA Finals Cleveland in 5 games and it wouldn't have been that competitive of a series.

2020 Lakers - I have a hard time ranking this team as the bubble really threw everything off. As that's a particularly thorny topic, I'll skip this team and just say "I don't know" how a series between that team and this 22 playoff Warriors team would go.

For the rest, I think the 2017/2018 Warriors would clearly beat this 22 edition (frankly I have a hard time seeing any historical team that would have beaten those teams under the current ruleset), and assuming the 2012/13 Heat and 2014 Spurs would have adapted to the modern era I would favor those teams as well (although it's possible the 2012/13 Heat simply didn't have enough shooting on the roster - the 2012/13 Heat are clearly "better" than 22 Warriors from a talent standpoint but roster construction isn't adapted to the modern era). The 2011 Mavs have some shooting but frankly my memory of the roster is probably too weak to have a good sense without further research. Pre-2011 it's not even worth comparing because the eras are too different.

[parsnips33]

Seeing Steph get so emotional at the end was really powerful. Felt the same way with Giannis last year. You can just see how much it means

[Colbinii]

Since it seems to fit the discussion you two just had, I'm curious to read your thoughts on where this Warriors team ranks among title teams of the last 10-15 years.

I would have them behind 2020 Lakers, 2019 Raptors, 2018 Houston, 2018 Warriors, 2017 Warriors, 2017 Cavaliers, 2016 Warriors, 2016 Cavaliers, 2016 Thunder, 2015 Warriors, 2015 Cavaliers [healthy], 2014 Spurs, 2013 Heat, 2013 Spurs

Looking at it purely from a matchup standpoint (rather than overall goodness) vs. the title teams, I think this 22 Warriors playoffs team would be favored against the 2019 Raptors and 2021 Bucks and it would've been coin-flips vs. the 2016 Cavs and perhaps 2015 Warriors. Pre 2015 era teams are harder to analyze given how much the dominant strategies in the NBA have shifted since the Warriors ascension in 2015.

My rationale:
2021 Bucks - this 22 Warriors team played surprisingly stout interior / team defense which would have hurt Giannis' efficiency (see how he performed against a similar defense in Boston this year) while I see the 22 Warriors playoffs offense being higher quality than the 21 Suns largely driven by the Warriors having that transcendent scorer that the 21 Suns lacked. This is a close matchup but I see it as 60/40 22 Warriors

2019 Raptors - frankly the 19 Warriors sans KD had a chance to win until Klay went down. In 22, you have Klay back (albeit not at full strength), Curry is likely even better/more robust with his added strength and defense, and you have Poole/Wiggins in the mix. Wiggins in particular would have been very helpful against Kawhi, who once Klay was gone the Warriors simply did not have anyone to match him 1:1 outside Draymond. 22 Warriors would've been able to throw Wiggins, Klay, Draymond, and GP2 against him. The 22 playoff Warriors were clearly stronger than the 19 Warriors sans KD/Klay on both offense and defense. This is 65/35 Warriors in my mind

2016 Cavs - given how close this series was I'll look at 22 playoff Warriors vs. 16 NBA finals Warriors for an easier comparison. While the 16 Warriors over the course of the season were clearly better, if you look at the state of the 16 Warriors in the finals they had lost Bogut, Green missed a game, and Curry clearly wasn't at full strength. 22 Warriors advantages vs. 16: Wiggins substituting for Barnes (big upgrade on defense / overall athleticism), Poole/GP2 for Barbosa/Livingston (more explosive bench scoring and defense upgrade), upgraded Looney, and 22 playoffs Curry vs. not full-strength 2016 playoffs Curry. 16 NBA Finals Warriors advantages vs. 22: Klay full strength, Green at peak vs. somewhat diminished/aged. It's very close - the 2022 Warriors feel more robust to me mainly because they have more scoring options and Curry himself has a more robust offensive game as he's really gotten much better at penetration/finishing inside plus his individual defense on Kyrie would be stronger in 22. Lebron would be a problem but he was for the 16 Warriors as well, and I don't see Wiggins as a matchup downgrade from Barnes/16 Iguodala (who was much worse than in 2015). I view this as a toss-up.

2015 Warriors - really the same analysis as above, with the added view that the 22 Warriors in particular are significantly more experienced than the 2015 edition who did not deal well initially with the physicality of the Cavs. The 22 Warriors are a much more physical team than the 2015 edition driven purely by experience. The 2015 Warriors are a better offensive team when flowing but less robust than the 22 playoff edition. Both teams play great defense (this was peak Draymond in 2015). If you put a gun to my head, I think I'd favor the 22 Warriors on grit alone. 22 Curry is a more robust player than 15 Curry due to strength/better finishing inside/more used to the whacky types of defense people have thrown at him for 7 years now since his explosion into the NBA's top echelon in 2015. I think the 22 playoff Warriors would have taken down 15 NBA Finals Cleveland in 5 games and it wouldn't have been that competitive of a series.

2020 Lakers - I have a hard time ranking this team as the bubble really threw everything off. As that's a particularly thorny topic, I'll skip this team and just say "I don't know" how a series between that team and this 22 playoff Warriors team would go.

For the rest, I think the 2017/2018 Warriors would clearly beat this 22 edition (frankly I have a hard time seeing any historical team that would have beaten those teams under the current ruleset), and assuming the 2012/13 Heat and 2014 Spurs would have adapted to the modern era I would favor those teams as well (although it's possible the 2012/13 Heat simply didn't have enough shooting on the roster - the 2012/13 Heat are clearly "better" than 22 Warriors from a talent standpoint but roster construction isn't adapted to the modern era). The 2011 Mavs have some shooting but frankly my memory of the roster is probably too weak to have a good sense without further research. Pre-2011 it's not even worth comparing because the eras are too different.

The thing about the Raptors is after acquiring Marc Gasol, the team with Marc Gasol on the court finished the regular season playing +16 Point per 100 possessions. That's 2016 Curry/Green levels of outscoring your opponents.

The Raptors also were a legitimate 8-player rotation [one of the strongest 1-8 in recent memory] with no real weaknesses.

[70sFan]

Came very late on the board, congratulation to Warriors. They deserved the title and proved that they were clearly the better team than Boston.

I am not going to say anything negative about anything related to the finals today, just enjoy the title Warriors fans!

[Texas Chuck]

So let me say congrats to the Warriors. They were clearly the best team in the playoffs and deserved every bit of this title.

But let me also saying I was hoping they wouldn't win. Because they alone get the "changed the game", best champion in decades, etc talk that we never did for the Bucks, or the Lakers, or the Raptors.

They are the champions of 21-22. We don't need to make it any bigger than that just because we love them the most.

[parsnips33]

I can't believe Chicago won 6 in 8 years

4 in 8 already seems unbelievable

[Peregrine01]

I can't believe Chicago won 6 in 8 years

4 in 8 already seems unbelievable

What goes understated was how much of an iron-man Jordan was. He basically never got hurt after 86 and played close to 80 games every season. Warriors were mainly derailed by injuries (Curry in 16; Klay and KD in 19).

[Texas Chuck]

I can't believe Chicago won 6 in 8 years

4 in 8 already seems unbelievable

It's incredible. Spurs ultimately got to 5 with Duncan but over nearly twice as long a span. Lakers got 3, then had to take a lengthy break before getting 2 more. Lebron was in the Finals forever but only has 4 himself.

It's an incredibly dominant run. Curry and Draymond are all-time greats.

[70sFan]

I can't believe Chicago won 6 in 8 years

4 in 8 already seems unbelievable

Can you imagine living through the Russell Celtics era?

[RCM88x]

I can't believe Chicago won 6 in 8 years

4 in 8 already seems unbelievable

What goes understated was how much of an iron-man Jordan was. He basically never got hurt after 86 and played close to 80 games every season. Warriors were mainly derailed by injuries (Curry in 16; Klay and KD in 19).

None of their top 3 guys ever missed a playoff game in those runs, that is pretty insane, Pippen basically never missed any RS time either until 98.

Feel like that is far less repeatable than anything else, pretty much seems like no matter who you got that over the course of even just 2-3 seasons a guy out of a contending core will always miss time these days. Just a different view/approach to things these days.

Like you said even during the Warriors 5 year run, Curry, KD and Klay all missed critical games and stretches.

[parsnips33]

I can't believe Chicago won 6 in 8 years

4 in 8 already seems unbelievable

Can you imagine living through the Russell Celtics era?

Man now that would really be something

Can't imagine we'll ever see anything close to that team's dominance ever again

[eminence]

.

.

Since it seems to fit the discussion you two just had, I'm curious to read your thoughts on where this Warriors team ranks among title teams of the last 10-15 years.

Looking it more as a them vs the league than against the other champs. I think it comes down to how you weight the RS vs the POs, as they arguably had the weakest RS of any champ for the last 15 seasons, but also arguably had the 2nd best playoff run ('17 Warriors #1 duh).

Personally I'd probably have them a bit lower than that for playoff run, and slightly below average overall. Ahead of last seasons Bucks, the '19 Raptors, '10 Lakers, '12 Heat. So 11th I guess. Very contrasting season with the '08 Celtics who might be next in my 10th spot.

I'd be deciding between the '13 Heat and '18 Warriors for my 5th slot, '09 Lakers in 4th, '20 Lakers 3rd, '15 Warriors 2nd, and obviously '17 Warriors 1st.